chpettit19

Payroll is roughly 125 now. Dave St Peter had an interview on the TV deal and current payroll situation yesterday with The Athletic and basically stated that they weren't going to be adding to the payroll at this point. "But I can’t point to a specific change in strategy. I think it’s more likely than not that the reality is that any impact from our TV deal, relative to our short-term player investments, is going to probably be limited." is the exact quote from the article. I think we need to give up on any hopes of a meaningful addition at this time.

But you're ignoring how he came to that record and just expecting it to go up while the truth is it's far more likely to go down. You're expecting Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to keep their "outcomes" in the W-L column while just improving on Gray's. Isolating just to the W-L record ignores how those results came about and you're basically just saying "well if they win more games they'll win more games." If you only win 15 games with an ERA under 3 there's no logical argument for winning more than 15 games with a 4 ERA. You're just saying "well they could win more games." If the pitchers replacing Gray only get 14 outings with 4 or more runs this season I promise you the team record in those games will be worse than 15-18 if those guys aren't throwing to a 3 or lower ERA. The ERA matters.

I love the optimism. And I agree with a shutdown pen being a huge weapon. I just never trust a bullpen to start a year. And it's not like they brought in Hader, Williams, and Diaz. How many of these guys had any of us heard of before they were brought in? Outside of the elite guys, pen arms are just so hard to predict. If the pen is as good as we all hope it would definitely add some wins. But that's a massive if. Bullpen arms are just too volatile for me to ever bank on outside the elite guys.

I really hope they don't try to force Santana into ABs against righties. He isn't good against them. Hasn't been for years. Really hoping they don't defer to the veteran there. Castro as a DH isn't ideal, but if he can hit against righties like he did last year I'd take it. Although, I'd probably prefer him take a defensive spot and push that player to the DH spot instead (like Castro in LF and Wallner to DH). I'd start the year with Larnach in that spot and see what he can do. This is his last option year so they have to make a final decision on him. I'd like to put him in there to start the year and see if he can grab his last chance and run with it. I really hope they don't artificially limit Buxton's time in CF. That's been the strategy for years and hasn't worked. Because of that I'm good with a Buxton/Castro CF tandem until Buxton gets hurt and then call up Martin. I think Martin could use some more AAA time to get his footing and give him a better chance to hit the ground running when he gets the call. If they're going to artificially limit Buxton's CF time, though, I agree there's a good argument for Martin making more sense.

As of today I think this is exactly what the Twins opening day roster would look like. Staumont being the only question mark with his health. With Soler signing with San Fran I'm out on the rest of the realistic FA targets. If they can get Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger on short-term deals I hope they do it, but I find that nearly impossible to believe. I suppose I wouldn't be mad with a JD Martinez signing, but that's it. No interest in any of the RH OF bats still on the market. If they aren't bringing in any of the 4 names I mentioned I don't think there's value in any of the other guys. I hope they've moved on from the "Buxton as full-time DH" idea from last year. If his legs are too hurt to play CF just put him on the IL because not having his legs clearly hurts his hitting. If the plan is for Buxton to be IL'd if he can't play CF regularly then the CF question comes down to veteran CF signing (MAT or Duvall as most likely options) or the young depth. I've been like a broken record around here in not wanting to clear spots on the opening day roster for rookies, but I prefer giving Martin a shot for an in-season Buxton IL stint over going back to the MAT well or hoping Duvall can handle CF still. I'm good with having Larnach as the 5th OFer. Castro is the part-time CFer while Buxton is on the roster so I'm not sure why they need another CF option on the roster. Farmer is covering 2B, 3B, and SS while Santana and Kirilloff split 1B. Shouldn't need to force another CF option on the roster, in my opinion. Because I'm against the proactive protecting of Buxton I don't think there should be a need for another CFer. They've tried that and he gets hurt anyways. It's time to just let him go like everyone else. Don't limit him to 50 of the first 60 games only for him to get injured in game 61 anyways and go on the IL. I think the lineup has an open spot against both righties and lefties so I'm fine with Larnach getting his 1 last chance to show what he can do by being the DH against righties. I care more about the lineup against righties than I do against lefties. This will also force them to let one or 2 of the young lefties actually get some experience against lefthanded pitching. So I think Larnach makes sense because he isn't redundant with Wallner and Kepler when there's a DH spot available. The rotation is my concern. I get why folks have hope in Ryan and Ober, but I'm not sold yet. I think they're both very talented, but Ryan faded in 2022 and 2023 (yes, I know he was likely hurt in 2023) and Ober is coming off by far his most innings ever while having faded himself down the stretch. I can't expect Paddack to throw a full season and still be in top shape for the playoffs. And DeSclafani feels like a throwback to the days they were bringing in Bundy and Archer. I was hoping this team was past those days. I like Varland, but I don't think he's ever going to be a playoff rotation guy. I'm happy with him as the 6th starter and think that's perfect for him now before they determine his bullpen vs rotation fate for 2025 and beyond. The playoffs are what I care about now and there's too much risk in this rotation for my liking. Yes, I can see the upside in Ryan, Ober, and Paddack, and I'm happy to have them as the trio fighting for the #3 and 4 spots in a playoff rotation, but needing all 3 of them to step up and still be close to full strength in October is too much risk for my liking for a team coming off an ALDS appearance. Love the depth of the bullpen, but I'm never sold on a bullpen until August or September because 95% of them are just too volatile year to year. This is the same approach they've always had of stockpiling options and then they'll work through them through July to find their mix for the stretch run. I like the strategy. I like what they've done. But ranking bullpens in February is a fool's errand. They are far better setup than typically, though. So I'm a fan there. Overall I'm with Fangraphs, though. Too many question marks on this team and I don't think they're significantly better or worse than last year. 84-88 wins is where I'd project this roster. PS sorry for the long post. Kinda got on a roll there and just didn't stop. My bad.

I do. The team scored at least 4 runs in only 14 of his 32 starts. It wasn't Gray's fault the Twins were 15-18 in his starts.

My bet would be Wallner is your starting LFer while Larnach gets early DH ABs against righties if he shows something in spring.

It was really interesting to hear him say that. Amsinger (the host of the Top 100 show) suggested it's going to be really helpful to have positional clarity now and that was Royce's response. I'd guess the messaging from the Twins is that the plan is to keep him at 3B for the foreseeable future, but they aren't closing the door on other options. Royce in the OF would be a potentially very helpful move from a roster construction point of view. My guess would be it very much depends on which of the prospects make it and then they re-think the positions in another year or 2 as they have a better feel for who deserves everyday jobs. It's possible Lee eventually takes over 3B, though. Or SS with Carlos moving over depending on the timing of things. I very much like the thought of Correa, Julien, Kirilloff, and Lee all being what we want them to be so the idea of moving Lewis comes up. That could be a really nice top 5 in a lineup before you even factor in the OF possibilities.

Royce was on MLB Network last week and mentioned he didn't necessarily have "positional clarity" yet. "You know I still don't think it's full clarity, but it's a little bit more than I had last year. You know, if you're an athlete you can always make adjustments." I don't think we should be so certain he's never moving off 3B. He certainly didn't sound certain.

Julien feels like the type of lefty who should have a great chance to be successful against southpaws because his eye is so good. You'd certainly hope extended exposure to them would allow him to be really successful and nullify that platoon split. Both of them seem like the kind of kids who put in the work to be as good as they can be. Really excited to see what the future holds for both of them.

I actually don't really care much about switch hitter vs non-switch hitter. Either you can hit against a certain armed pitcher or you can't. A switch hitter who OPS's .603 against lefties is no more useful than a lefty who puts up a .603 OPS against lefties. Standing in the other batter's box when you get out doesn't mean anything to me. Cedric Mullens being a good example of this. Couldn't hit lefties as a righty so just stopped hitting righty and locked in his 1 swing. I'm not saying Lee shouldn't switch hit, just that I don't separate switch hitters vs non-switch hitters when it comes to platoon splits. And I'd hope the Twins don't either. If what you care about is the platoon split you shouldn't care about which batter's box they stand in. The actual split is all that matters.

I'd think the biggest factor is the MLB team's willingness to let that development actually happen. This current regime isn't exactly famous for letting young players work on weakside platoon problems at the big league level. Not that that would or should stop him from being promoted, but there's a very real chance he wouldn't get frequent opportunities to develop that skill if he were promoted to the Twins and they had an option to platoon him.

Yeah, not saying I necessarily agree with that post, but it shouldn't take 2 years. I'd assume they're more concerned with his lefty swing being ready than righty based on the sheer number of ABs he'll get from each side. But if the expectation is that he's showing he's ready to step in and be an everyday player I'd certainly like to see him improve upon his .603 OPS against lefties. Don't think you hold him back because of that, but expecting to see 50 ABs against them with better production isn't too crazy, I don't think.

He had 104 ABs vs lefties last year. It it takes 2 years to get 50-100 ABs vs lefties moving forward it's because he was hurt.

I'd be ok with Thor on a minor league deal because there's basically no such thing as a bad minor league deal, but I wouldn't be excited about that at all. He looks finished to me. Lorenzen would be a pretty "meh" move to me. It's basically just DeSclafani 2.0. Depth is important, but they need to stop adding to the bottom of the roster and start adding to the top.

Soler is my #1 target as far as just FAs goes now. I think plugging him in as the everyday DH with some OF time against lefties would be great for this lineup. Martin is interesting to me. I'm generally not a fan of giving opening day jobs to guys who've never seen an MLB pitch unless they're someone like Jackson Holliday. Wouldn't claim it's the end of the world if they go with him, but if they're just going to use him as a short side of a platoon bat in the majors I'd prefer they let him continue to develop in AAA to start the year and give Larnach 1 more chance as the starting DH on opening day. I think Miranda is still hurt (based on his comments the other week) so I think he's in a tough spot for opening day. I'm less concerned with position, though, and more concerned about getting the best bat possible into the lineup (which is why I prefer Soler). I don't want anything to do with Buxton as a full-time DH so I'd be happy to use that spot for the best bat I can get and figure things out from there. Will be interesting to see what they do come opening day. Nice to have some decent options, though!

Yeah, I'm definitely not advocating for the idea that Sonny is going to be anywhere near as good moving forward. I'm only speaking to replacing what he did last year. I hope to see 1 more pitcher added, but am not expecting it at this point. I just think replacing 180+ innings of sub-3 ERA is actually really hard to do.

I wonder if they'll do something where they're basically adding the DH spot to the IF and rotating Correa, Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, and Lee through there come 2025 when you'd hope all 5 are demanding everyday run with their play. That would allow for someone like Castro to be just the in game injury backup across the whole IF while you're able to give them all "half off days" in the DH spot regularly and not ever have to take one of them out of the lineup completely if they're all core lineup pieces like we hope. That obviously puts Miranda in a tough spot, but maybe he's one of the 5 instead of Kirilloff if Kirilloff ends another year on the IL. Or it allows you to make a trade of 1 of them for OF or SP help after 2024. I'm a proponent of Lewis to the OF if Miranda and Lee both establish themselves as legit bats, but I'm also skeptical it's an actual possibility (I saw him on MLB Network last week and he actually said his spot at 3B isn't totally locked in- can't remember his exact words, though). My hope is that they have to make some tough decisions (we haven't even gotten into Emma or Jenkins blowing the roof off things in 2024) after the 2024 season. Depth will always win out so I doubt they really look to move anyone within the next year or 2, but it's not hard to see a situation where they have 10 or 11 guys who deserve everyday play by 2025/2026. What a great problem to have if that's what comes, though! Enjoy these discussions far more than the ones where we're trying to find even 5 or 6 guys who deserve everyday play like we've seen here far too often the last 30 years.

Very intrigued to see Lee this year. Even starting in spring training. He scuffled in AAA, and I'd bet that's probably the most he's struggled for more than about a week in his entire baseball playing life. He seems to have a great idea of what it's going to take to reach his goals, and by all accounts puts in the work to make it happen. Will be fun to watch his first few ABs in the spring and see what he's looking like going into the year. I'm also interested to see what, if any, further 26-man moves they make before opening day. I'd argue there's an everyday lineup spot open right now, and I'm intrigued to see if they give it to a young guy (Larnach or Miranda most likely) or if they bring in another vet. I can see the argument for both sides, and really hope anyone they bring in would either have options or be clearly above average. If they don't make a move for a vet I agree with the article that Lee still isn't likely to debut early because of his lack of 40-man spot right now. Far more likely that spot goes to guys who have already debuted over Lee, or even Martin. You don't often feel that a team coming off an ALDS run is in transition, but that's how this team feels to me. Lots of different ways they can go with their 13th position player spot to start the year. I don't see Lee as being high on the list of possibilities, though. Just the nature of the beast when it comes to options and 40-man spots.

I'd expect everyone in the Twins org to have put in work during the offseason, and I really hope the team is going off far more than 16 games. A .231 batting average in September (17 games) in AAA doesn't scream "I'm ready" to me. Not saying the door should be completely closed for him to start the year, but there's a lot left for him to prove in the minors.

Yes, 26-man roster. His "clock" at this point is just option years, correct. He won't start accruing service time until he debuts. There's another way, but I won't risk jinxing him by mentioning it. But for right now the only "concern" with him is he's going to start using up his options this year so they'll want him to debut and look like he can make it within the next couple seasons before he gets to that Gordon spot where he's out of options and they aren't sure about him.

I don't think we should take that quote so literally. They're not actually going to ask Lee where he wants to play. His play is going to do the speaking, and so far it hasn't said "I'm ready for the majors." There's a pretty small chance Lee sees the majors in the first month of the season, I think.

Yes, there is very much a pathway to an improved record for the Twins, but replacing Sonny's innings is not easy. The people who do projections don't see it as likely, but I'm not suggesting there's no way they can improve. I think this team is very similar to last year's in that their range of reasonable outcomes is massive. If everything goes right they're a 90+ win team. If a few key things go wrong they're in the mid-80s again, and if more than a few key things go wrong they're in the 70s. There's very little certainty I see with this team, even if I can see the reasons for hope that people have. I just think replacing Sonny's innings from last year is a big challenge, and I don't think they've done it. They seem to be leaning more into the pen and my guess is we're maybe looking at some more "short start" frustration this year as they plan to lean more heavily on the pen. I am very excited for them to get things rolling so we can actually see some players playing and not just keep speculating on everything! I'm expecting a very interesting season, and I'm hoping we see some guys really take off and establish themselves as the new core.

I think you're underselling what Gray did for the team, and how easy it is to replace it. 184 innings alone is a lot to fill in this day and age. And if they're not being filled by an ERA less than 3 that 15-18 record would be much worse. The Twins scored an average of 3.71 runs per game during Gray's starts. There were 24 qualified pitchers in all of baseball with an ERA under 3.71 last year. Yes, 15-18 isn't great, but there was a lot of room to go down there. In Sonny's 32 starts only 14 of them saw the team score at least 4 runs. If the #2 Cy Young candidate gets you to only 15-18 with an ERA under 3 in 32 starts there's a lot of space to go down and you should be very concerned. An average pitcher replacing him sends that record down dramatically. Just looking at the record in those games and saying "well others going .500 is reasonable so it's not that hard to replace" ignores what caused that record. The team being under .500 with him on the mound should make you nervous about replacing him, not excited. If you hand a lesser pitcher 18 starts where their team is going to score 3 or fewer runs that 15-18 record plummets. Replacing 184 innings of sub-3 ERA is very hard. Was never going to be done by just 1 person being added to the roster, but a 15-18 record with a sub-3 ERA is a bad sign for replacing him, not a good one.

Yeah, I certainly don't see them signing any of Snell, Montgomery, or Bellinger, but I took your statement that only Snell was better than their system guys to mean you didn't think Montgomery or Bellinger were. It will be very interesting to see what happens with those guys over the next few weeks. I'd put Soler on my list of players I'd like them to sign if they can get them for 3 years or less, as well. I'd actually take Montgomery over Snell, or anyone on our team outside Lopez, because I think he's a playoff stud and that's what I care about. I don't expect any big moves between now and the season, but I see a rotation spot open (would very much like to keep Varland in the #6 spot to start the year and upgrade on DeSclafani) and a lineup spot open. We'll see if they pull another rabbit out of their hats.