chpettit19

Yes, teams are able to get insurance on players, and they almost always do. If they don't it's almost always a "point and laugh" situation when a player gets hurt and it comes out that the team didn't have insurance on them. It's standard operating procedure at this point. But depending on the player and their situation it can become a prohibitive thing. There were rumors about the Giants and Mets struggling to get insurance for Correa and that maybe playing a role in him ending up back here.

An MLB player just signed for $700 million. I think the agents have a pretty good grasp on the financials of the league.

If those guys step up to 180+ innings of 3.2 ERA the rotation is way better than last year's no matter who pitches the rest of the innings (within reason). You put 3 top 10 pitchers in any rotation and it's better than what the Twins had last year. You're talking Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux if those guys reach those numbers (adjusted for era, obviously). Those 3 guys alone at those numbers would match the fWAR of last year's entire rotation.

It'll make for a heck of a 4 year run if it happens.

That'd give the Twins 3 of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. Sign me up for that result.

You don't think the Cardinals trust Gray for 5+ innings in the playoffs? You don't think the Twins trusted him for that? I'm not saying they just blindly leave him in there, but they most definitely aren't pre-planning a 2 inning outing. Joe Ryan had no chance of going 5 innings in that game. He could've had a no-no through 3 and they were taking him out. That's very different than someone struggling early and them changing the plans mid-game. There are plenty of guys trusted to go 5 innings in a playoff game. Elimination or not (again, they should all be treated the same as far I'm concerned). If the Twins can't find 3 guys they don't pre-plan to pull before 5 innings of a playoff game they should just pack it in. That's not a large ask. The Twins 100% would not have run a bullpen game in that situation if it were Sonny Gray coming off a 2.79 in 184 innings season. 2 innings, 1 earned wouldn't have ended his day. That's a massive difference in trust level.

If he's going from a 130 OPS+ (136 wRC+) in 109 games and busting out in a "big way" on top of that you're talking MVP discussion. That would be very fun to watch.

I lack the optimism of this thread, but I very much hope it's correct. I can see the path even if I'm more reserved in my beliefs on it being all that likely of a result. If a few key things break right (namely health) this team could be very good. It's definitely nice to have it not be totally ridiculous to have faith in the Twins. That isn't often the case. Looking forward to enjoying the 2024 season with all the TD faithful.

Yes, it does. You try to win every single game in the playoffs. They absolutely should not be saying "eh, it's ok if we lose this game so let's not go with our best strategy to win" in any playoff game. Most managers would prefer to not feel the need to cover 7 innings with your pen in any playoff game. I want guys you can trust for more than 2 innings in a playoff game. Elimination or not. The Lopez trust bar is the bar I want them to be meeting for at least 3 starting pitchers. It's possible Ryan reaches that bar this year if he can maintain his production for a full year. But they very clearly did not trust him last year. The only bar I care about for the rotation is finding at least 3 guys they trust to go 5+ (preferably 6, but beggars can't be choosers) innings in a playoff game. If you only have 1 you're in trouble. The Twins are banking on Ryan and Ober becoming those guys, it appears. I can definitely see the logic in it. But they haven't reached that bar yet and it makes me nervous that they're putting so much of their playoff hopes in such uncertain hands.

He actually went on the IL on the 8th after not being able to play for 2 days after having fouled a ball off his foot and they made it retroactive to the 6th. At least that was their story. You can say he wasn't thrilled by that decision? Do you have quotes from him on that? But none of this matters now. DeSclafani is in camp throwing bullpen sessions and isn't hurt. That idea has been soundly put to bed. There's no 60-day IL trip coming for him unless he truly gets hurt.

Well they gave Ryan a start and pulled him after 2 innings. Not sure that's a great sign of their trust in him.

Or that he also faded in 2022 when he wasn't hurt.

I think the biggest factor in determining how far they fall (technically they could rise, but that's a far less likely outcome) will be how closely they can match their health from last year. Mahle went down early, but they still got 94% of their starter innings from just 6 arms while pitching the 4th most innings of any rotation. That's incredible. The year before their 6 most used arms accounted for 80% of their innings while the rotation overall threw 113 fewer innings. The final results of this rotation will come down to how deep they need to dive into their depth for real innings. My read on their moves recently is that they're preparing for fewer innings out of their rotation and more out of their pen. That could help protect the rotation and is probably the smart thing to do.

If we're talking about right now (that's how I read things based on the possible answers) the answer is pretty simple to me, put Lee in AAA until he shows he has mastered that level. There's no logjam yet. Lee hasn't shown he's a major league player. If they all perform well this year at the MLB level and show that they deserve everyday roles to start 2025 it'll depend on a lot of other things, but using the DH to rotate them through, moving Julien to 1B (depending on Kirilloff and Miranda), and moving Lewis to the OF would all be possibilities for me.

They didn't clear money. They shifted money while spending even more money. They spent an extra 6 million in salary in 2024 by trading for DeSclafani and Haniger and then trading for Polanco. And Haniger has played 100 games twice in his 7 year career. He's played fewer games than Byron Buxton the last 2 years. He's played 57 and 61 games the last 2 years. It's not like he was some huge health upgrade on Robbie Ray. They turned Robbie Ray, Gabriel Gonzalez, Justin Topa, Darren Bowen, and $6 million into Jorge Polanco and Mitch Haniger for 2024. That's a payroll increase for 2024. Are the podcast folks blasting ownership for cutting future payroll with these deals? Because they added current payroll with these deals no matter how you'd like to spin it. These deals weren't the money saving deals, those were separate deals. The Mariners may be cutting payroll overall, but these deals were not part of that. These deals added money. The Suarez and Kelenic/Gonzales deals were deals that saved them money. Some of which they then spent on Mitch Garver. The DeSclafani deals did not save them money. Their overall payroll reduction is a separate thing from the DeSclafani deals.

Byron and the team at the start of spring said he wasn't 100% and wouldn't be playing the field at all in spring and would start the year at DH in the hope that he would heal up after the first month or 2 of the season and then be able to play the field. I'm betting we get some videos of them throwing pen sessions, too. I guess people can believe whatever they want, but I'm not seeing any reason to believe either of these guys are hurt based on the information we have available to us.

That is from just a few minute ago. Both guys self-reporting that they're 100% goes on the first day of workouts.

If the Twins chose to knowingly eat 4 mil on a guy they didn't think could play this year to trade one of their 4 or 5 best hitters coming off an ALDS trip to gain a reliever with 1 successful MLB season at the age of 32 and 2 prospects in A ball (and a short side of a platoon 1B if you want to add Santana) fans should be pissed. If they did that trade expecting it to be likely that they'd have to start DeSclafani on the 60-day IL that trade was horrible. Your point about the Giants having money and Seattle not and that being the motivation here doesn't really seem to track for 2024 at all. Robbie Ray is getting paid 23 mil this season. Mitch Haniger is getting paid 17. DeSclafani is getting 12, but the Giants are paying 6. That trade was a financial wash. It didn't save the Mariners anything and wasn't about the Giants being able to eat some salary. If it's about 2025 and beyond salary I'd think the Mariners would've wanted to let Ray come back and pitch half a year to show his worth so they could get more in return for him after this season. The Mariners then took on salary in the Polanco deal. So apparently their motivation was not to cut budget since their 2 DeSclafani deals actually added salary to their payroll for 2024. The Twins told us over and over and over that Buxton wasn't right and that's why he was DHing. How is that not being upfront about the knee being "extremely inflamed" and him not being able to do things? They told us MAT was Buxton insurance from the start. They told us in spring that Buxton wouldn't be playing the field and would start the year as the fulltime DH. How much more up front could they be? They literally told us Buxton's knee still wasn't right so they brought in MAT to start the year as the CFer while Buxton would be the fulltime DH until he was able to get the knee right and play the field. Seems like they covered pretty much everything you said they didn't cover. The Twins are likely going to need between at least 9 and 11 starters this year (they used 14 in 2022). They don't have that right now. Their "shopping" reportedly includes Noah freaking Syndergaard who hasn't been good since 2018. That doesn't feel like it has anything to do with DeSclafani's current health, it sounds like they're trying to add more AAA depth because they know they don't have enough starters yet. The Twins entire strategy is to load up with as much depth as they possibly can, but when it comes to the 5th starter it's about DeSclafani's health? Doesn't seem to track. Are their 20+ reliever options about Duran's health? Adding as much depth as they possibly can is the very core of their strategy.

The Twins said from the beginning Buxton was still hurt. They didn't say he was healthy and then IL him. They said he was hurt but they expected him to get healthy by DHing. I guess we'll see how hurt DeSclafani is today when workouts begin.

Who said they traded him because of his questionable arm? The Giants got back a guy they know 100% won't be pitching the full season. If arm health was a concern for them they wouldn't have paid to get rid of him and an MLB outfielder for a guy they know is hurt. If the Twins traded Jorge Polanco for a guy who's medicals they reviewed and knew he was hurt we should all be pissed. That's not what a contending team does. The prp injection was what happened in August with a 6-8 week timeline. They knew then that his season was over because there was only 8 weeks left. Suggesting they should have no problem getting 60-day IL documentation 5 months later is not based on any information we have available. And if the plan is to 60-day him they should do it now and clear a 40-man spot so they can do a waiver claim without DFAing anyone. I'd think the fact that they haven't done it yet suggests they have no plans to 60-day him and its unlikely they'll see what he can do in spring and then 60-day him. "The Twins believe DeSclafani is healthy." Do-Hyoung Park from his article on the trade. I suppose he could've just made that up, but I'd bet he actually asked someone. Every connected reporter has him on the opening day roster. You'd think there'd be mentions of him being injured and not have everyone listing him as a lock if there was doubt.

I just don't see a guy going into free agency sitting out the first 2 months of the season for "subjective maladies." Do you honestly see DeSclafani not pitching in spring training and rehabbing for 2 months? Because if he's not actually hurt the team is going to somehow have to convince him that he is. If he's actually struggled with his elbow since last August the Twins never should've taken him on even for minimal financial risk. I think Joey Gallo was very much actually hurt when he first went on the IL last year, yes.

There are 12 playoff spots now. That's nearly half the league. At the end of July last year there were 22 teams with at least 50 wins. Those 22 teams (11 in each league) were all within 6 games of a playoff birth. That leaves 8 teams as clear sellers. The idea that you can just wait until the deadline to get what you need is ignoring the new realities of baseball. It's far easier for teams to create bidding wars at the deadline now than it used to be because so many more teams feel they're in the race. And when there's only 8-10 clear sellers, who likely don't have a ton of big time assets to sell, it becomes much harder to find the "missing piece" for any kind of reasonable cost. It doesn't get cheaper to get guys at the deadline, but you get them for less of the season. Whether anyone outside Miami feels like they're a legit threat for the playoffs or not doesn't really matter that much. Their front office may not feel so secure in their jobs and may not be willing to trade current assets for future assets. And I think you'd be hard pressed to find a lot of examples of teams trading away big time pieces in late May/early June. When was the last time that happened? The Marlins would much rather wait until the deadline to see what the next 2 months bring and build up a more heated market when the deadline puts pressure on the buyers to make moves. What if while the Twins are waiting it out someone loses multiple starters from their rotation and get more aggressive in their trade attempts? Like Texas did last year when they went out and got 2 of the best pitchers available at the deadline. What if Lee struggles for the first half of the AAA season and now Miami doesn't see him as a future SS option for them? Or Emma and our new friend Gonzalez struggle and both drop off top-100 lists? Now you don't even have the needed prospect capital to make a trade. Not saying they should be out there doing whatever they have to to get another arm, but there's very real risk in waiting. You're not just going to the store and grabbing what you want. The arms might not be there for you to even go after if you wait.

MLB just suspended the former Mets GM for faking IL stints. There is no information out there that would at all suggest DeSclafani should be placed on the IL til May/June. He's not currently hurt and they can't pretend he is. He had a flexor strain that is a 4-8 week recovery time last August. Unless he legitimately gets hurt during spring training they can't just put him on the IL for 2 months.

The Twins had the 5th best ERA in baseball last year. The staff ERA was 3.87. I don't think it's easy to maintain that when the core of that was based on your overly healthy rotation throwing the 4th most innings in baseball with the 2nd best ERA in baseball that was largely aided by Sonny throwing 20% of the innings with a 2.79 ERA. The rotation ERA was 3.82 with Sonny's performance. The rest of the rotation had a 4.10 ERA combined. If everything else stays the same and you just switch out Sonny for a league average ERA (4.3) the rotation ERA jumps to 4.13. DeSclafani hasn't been a league average pitcher in 3 years. He's projected in the 4.50 ERA range. But we'll just assume between him, Varland, and some extra Ryan/Ober/Paddack/bullpen innings the Sonny replacement has about a 4.01 ERA over Sonny's 184 innings (82 runs over 184 innings) because that seems like a slightly ambitious, but reasonable number. That's an above average pitcher, but it still lowers the rotation ERA to 4.07 which drops from the #2 rotation to the #7 rotation. Adding an extra 25 runs to Sonny's innings jumps the team ERA from 3.87 to 4.03. That takes them from the 5th best team ERA to the 12th best. That's obviously assuming a lot, but getting a 4.01 ERA out of Sonny's spot with DeSclafani slotted to cover the bulk of his innings is a bold prediction. I think you're drastically underselling what 184 innings of 2.79 ERA ball does to a pitching staff. And expecting the rotation to be anywhere near as healthy as they were last year is a huge prediction. They got 841 of their 895 (94%) starter innings out of 6 arms last year. I sure hope that's the case this year, but it's not likely that they only need 51 innings (plus 3 "opener" innings) out of anyone not named Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, DeSclafani, or Varland. For comparison they used 14 starters in 2022. Their 6 most used arms combined for a whopping 628 innings. Even with them leaning WAY more on the bullpen so only having 782.2 rotation innings that year those 6 arms only accounted for 80% of the rotation innings. You're taking the best case scenario all around and claiming it's not hard to then replace 184 innings of 2.79 ERA. It's incredibly hard. Just looking at the W-L records during each starter's starts is ignoring a whole lot and underselling what losing Sonny's production means.