chpettit19

Nope, the opposite. If you get hurt while on the MLB roster your time on the IL counts towards your service time. Royce Lewis, for example, has accrued over a year of service time, but we are all well aware that he's only played in 70 total games. But all his time on the IL was counted as service time.

A whole year is 172 days on the MLB roster or IL. The season is 187 days so you have basically 2 weeks that you can not be on the roster or IL and get credit for a full year. So to be eligible for the extra draft pick a player needs to be up within the first 2 weeks of the season and then stay on the roster enough of the rest of the year to not go beyond those 15 days of cushion you get.

You believe there's a player in our system that could help the 2024 team more than Jordan Montgomery or Cody Bellinger? The Twins shouldn't sign them for a ton of years, but if they can get one of them on a deal like Correa's first deal (essentially a 1 year deal) you don't think they're more of an upgrade than guys in the system?

I don't see any chance Lee breaks camp, or is up in the first couple weeks, to be eligible for the extra pick compensation unless the team is hit hard by spring injuries. I think the more realistic chance for the Twins to take advantage of this opportunity is with Rodriguez and Jenkins the next couple years. I'd like to see the Twins do what other teams have with their top prospects and give them a September callup (if they've earned it) the season before so they get their feet wet and have a better chance of sticking on the opening day roster the next season. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll had both debuted the previous season, but didn't get enough ABs to exhaust their rookie eligibility. If they go that route with Lee it's going to be pretty disappointing as there's very likely a job opening due to injury sometime well before September 2024. I don't see any way he's really a factor in the fight for an extra draft pick. But Rodriguez getting a late season callup in 2024 and hitting the opening day roster for 2025 could be a possibility. Or Jenkins making our dreams come true by following Jackson Holliday's lead and blowing through the entire system in a year could open the door, too. Lee just isn't in a place to make the opening day roster (I'd argue there's a starting spot open, though) because he hasn't shown a mastery of the minor leagues yet. He's looking much more like a mid-season callup.

Yes, it would be a disappointment if the expectation is he's a star. It would put him more on track with being a good regular instead of being a star. You can think it sounds harsh, but that's just what history tells us. There is a difference between 3 year college players and guys who get to pro ball as teens. The speed with which you're able to jump levels matters when it comes to the expectations of ceiling. Rodriguez starts using up options this year. If it takes him 2 more years before he's getting real playing time it changes his situation because then he's in his final option year and either needs to figure it out or you're looking at a Gordon situation. Stars generally don't take until they're out of options to figure it out. There's more to it than just age. Once you hit the 40-man roster things change. Of course he has some time to develop. I didn't say he'd be a lost cause or we should give up on him, but it very much changes his outlook if he has to go 1 level at a time through the minors. Stars don't do that. Maybe you don't see him as a star, and then it's totally fine if he keeps climbing 1 rung at a time season after season. But if your hope is that he's a star then, yes, taking 2 more years to hit the majors would be a disappointment. Wallner reached the majors before he had to be put on the 40-man. If Lee reaches it this year he'd accomplish that as well. Stars generally don't wait until their 3rd option year to reach the majors. I'm sorry if that sounds harsh, but it's the truth. If the expectation is Rodriguez is a star we should be expecting him to step foot between the lines at Target Field in 2024 or early 2025.

Judging the "speed" of his progression really is about the likelihood to reach his ceiling. Taking until his 3rd option year to really earn a chance would mean he's likely continued to struggle with his contact rates and hasn't made "the jump." Once prospects of his stature hit AA the expectations are that they aren't going station to station year by year through the upper minors. Kepler's deal and Buxton's availability concerns shouldn't play any role whatsoever in Emma's progression beyond possibly providing openings on the MLB roster. A 2025 September call up for his first MLB action would be a little slow in terms of him being a possible elite player. Not overly concerning by any means, but an entire season at both AA and AAA would be a disappointment in some sense and dampen his outlook a bit. I think the hope should be a solid push for real ABs in 2025 without having our opinions of him crater if that doesn't happen.

I'm most definitely hoping you folks in the upper-80s to lower-90s prediction range are right. I'm more on Fangraphs level with a mid-80s prediction. I believe they have them pegged at 85. Tied with Cleveland. It will be a fun and interesting season to see how all the ifs turn out!

I always appreciate your breakdowns of prospects because you watch more games than I do of the younger teams, and you're always paying attention to more than just what their numbers are. So I'm counting on you to keep us all up to date on how he's looking as we get into the year!

Rodriguez is the kid I'm most fascinated by in the system. Probably the one I'll watch the most ABs for this year. He has such a sky-high ceiling that it's hard not to be excited for him, but his floor is so low it's really hard to have too much faith in him. The jump to AA will be super interesting to watch. Ball vs strike recognition is huge. It can be taught, but mostly only to an extent. Kids who have it naturally like Rodriguez seems to have a leg up on their peers from the jump. If he can tweak his approach a little and not "give away" so many at bats (in watching a handful of his games last year there were a number where he seemed overly passive to me) he could take off and blow through AA by mid-season. If he's too passive AA pitchers are going to start eating him up. Big test coming for Emma and I'm excited to see how it plays out. I love upside, and his is gigantic. I hope he puts some of the doubts about whether or not he can reach it to bed this year by dominating AA.

Just an FYI, but Lee had 567, Schobel 554, Keirsey 549, Ortega 537, Rosario 530, Severino 528, Fajardo 527, Miller 526. Those were the Twins prospects with over 500 PAs last year.

Obviously lots of factors for how predictive those things are for young players, and it's a lot of marrying human scouting/projections with the numbers. The concern with him is that he's more physically developed than most 19 year olds so the human scouting/projection read on him is that there's not much more left for him to go from a physical projection standpoint. So when you connect that with his less than ideal 90th percentile EVs it becomes a concern. There is a general progression those things take between the ages of 18 and 21, but that's tied to physical growth at those ages. So if he's already reached his physical growth peak it likely means his EVs have peaked, unless it's being held back by the swing decisions. So lots of factors going into reading that stuff. I'd assume if the Twins are really as excited as they say about him they expect his EVs to be held back by his swing decisions since they're pretty widely known to be high on exit velos when grading young players. But obviously it's all very much an educated guessing game for any 19 year old.

I certainly expect him to stick in RF for as long as he can and not become a DH type anytime soon, but the Harold Ramirez comp I saw somewhere (Fangraphs, maybe?) feels about right. Same physical stature and defensive skills and Ramirez has gradually worked his way from CF, to cOF, to 1B, to DH. If you can hit like we hope Gonzalez can hit I'm good with you being primarily a DH when you reach your late 20s after having bounced around the field for a bit. Never going to be a defensive plus, but as long as he can remain a reasonable defensive option for a while his bat will have the chance to carry him.

It's not 0?

Yeah, I'm not saying 1 way or another what caused his BABIP decrease. People have been claiming Kepler is "unlucky" for a decade because of his when the truth is he just doesn't hit the ball well enough. Gonzalez's 90th percentile EV is very concerning. And could very well be because he hits a lot of bad pitches. I'm not making any predictions on him. He has potential. But he also has some pretty bright red flags at this point of his career. He's a very wide variance prospect. I hope the Twins, or whoever he's with, are able to help him reach the top part of his outcome spectrum. He'd be very fun to watch if he reaches his peak. But he has a long ways to go, and real work to do. I look forward to following his journey.

If Terry Francona openly states someone had to go because they were just so bad for his clubhouse that person is automatically out for any team I'm running.

Yeah, I'm not going to say Raya has an MLB career ahead of him yet. At least not as a starter. Skenes is going to debut this year. Early. Probably has a 50/50 shot at being in the opening day rotation for Pittsburgh. We're not sure Raya is even a AA starter yet. We were pretty positive Jordan Balazovic had an MLB future at this point, too. He was a top 100 prospect at Raya's age. He's not looking like he has an MLB career at this point. Raya has a long way to go yet. Skenes is walking through the door. I very much like the look of Raya right now, but until he clears a lineup a 2nd time at any point in professional baseball we need to slow down on him. It feels very weird for me to be the "slow down on these prospects" guy this offseason. I'm typically on the other side. But I think the Julien, Wallner, Lewis trio in Minneapolis last year has gotten us a little to excited about what all these guys are going to be.

It sounds like his future is likely 100% dependent on his bat. And that is very likely nearly 100% dependent on his plate discipline. I love guys that can get the barrel to the ball in all areas of the zone. But if you're not able to make pitchers throw it in the zone you're negating your own ability. All of his numbers are tough to really decipher because of his lack of discipline. Low BABIP isn't necessarily bad luck. It could be a result of a lot of really poor contact because you're swinging at everything and hitting 6 hoppers to infielders or soft flies to the OF. His concerning exit velo numbers discussed by other prospect evaluators could be a victim of the same thing. He feels very much like Miranda, with maybe a little more pop in his bat. The Twins minor league staff were able to get Miranda to be more selective at AA and his performance took off. If they're able to do the same with Gonzalez he would likely have the same sort of results, and if there's a little more power in his bat than Miranda has it'd be very exciting. It sounds like he has the core, mostly unteachable bat to ball skills that big time hitters have, and that's a great place to be starting from. Now we'll see how well he's able to adjust his approach to really bring out the most in his bat to ball skills. Will be fun to follow him through the system. Or fun to see a big time starting pitcher come to the Twins in return for him (and others) if that's the route they go.

Not sure Skenes is the guy you want to put up against Raya right now. Skenes not debuting in the first few weeks of the season (to make him eligible to get the Pirates an extra pick down the road) would be a disappointment for him while Raya has a super small chance of debuting at any point in 2024. Their timelines are very different right now.

I'm just going to say Puka not staying up late anymore is quite different than him changing how he ran routes or got off the line or any other part of actually playing WR. If the Twins need Carlos Santana to come in and fix how late guys stay up they need to quit talking about Correa, Buxton, and Lopez as leaders. Yes, veteran leadership to show guys how to prepare is important. Not disagreeing at all. Creating a good clubhouse with guys who are capable of preparing on their own without heavy-handed leadership from the coaching staff is important, and veterans tend to drive that by showing the young guys how they go about their business. Not disagreeing with that. What I disagree with is that Santana is going to come in and change anyone's hitting. I'm not disagreeing that having smart hitters around to talk hitting is useful, but you stated that the Twins were going to have better overall quality of at bats this year and want to tie that largely to Santana. I just think you're overselling his, or any player's, impact on that. Just like Turner isn't going to suddenly change the quality of at bat in Toronto. Boston had a worse wRC+ in 2023 with Turner than they did in 2022 without him. Their BB% and K% were nearly identical year over year. Turner didn't seem to make any drastic changes there. Milwaukee's wRC+ went down significantly, but Santana was only there half the year. It's good to have these guys on your team, but expecting them to make team wide, noticeable differences is just a bridge too far for me. I'm glad he brings leadership, and a good approach at the plate, but I'd much rather have a guy who performs better than Santana is likely to at this stage than someone who can talk hitting. If his ability to talk hitting is what you want just hire him as a coach and get a better player in the lineup. The Twins have enough leaders, what they need is more talent.

I don't know how personalized aircraft fixing techniques are so I'm not sure how well that analogy works for hitting. I don't know that the Brewers saw some big improvement in their ABs last year when Santana got moved there. But maybe they did. Having more smart guys who can talk hitting is good. But I don't expect to see a significant shift in the style of at bats anyone on the Twins has this year. They all got to the majors doing things the way that works best for them. I hope you're right and we see an improvement in the quality of at bats, but the idea that Santana is going to have some outsized impact just doesn't track with me. It's not like he's going to be standing around the cages talking to every guy as they take BP. Professional athletes are confident people and believe in what they're doing. The Twins don't have a lot of guys expected to struggle on their team anymore so none of them are going to be looking to make any sort of dramatic changes. They're going to keep doing what got them here. And even if guys do want to try to do things more like him it doesn't mean they have the ability to. Hitting is incredibly individualized. What works for 1 guy doesn't work for another. I hope he says something that helps things click into place for a guy or 5, but it's highly unlikely. I hope they're all able to take something from each other's game/style and work to be the best they can possibly be. I just don't believe one player is showing up in a clubhouse and changing things in any significant way like that. There's a reason the average tenure for active MLB hitting coaches is 2.4 years. And those are guys that are paying individualized attention to everyone. It's just really hard to have that teamwide of an effect. But I do appreciate his approach and hope he's as helpful as you believe he will be.

Balazovic ran out of options. Jackson didn't replace Balazovic, he replaced Duarte. And Santana replaced Thompson. You didn't include Falvey's entire comment. He stated they replaced Balazovic with Weiss because Weiss has options left and it gives them more flexibility.. If they were so pissed about the broken jaw and thought so little of him then they wouldn't have waited an entire year to cut him. He would've been the first guy they waived as they started their claims, not the last (as of now). Balazovic wasn't the only member of the Twins organization that went out during spring training. A bunch of them do it during the season even (shocking, I know!). Nobody is going to change your mind on this, but you're taking 1 incident in a 7 year stretch and determining an individual's entire character around it. I sure hope people don't do that with you because I'm sure we could find 1 moment in time in the last 7 years of your (or anyone's) life that didn't show the best judgement. Kind of how humans work.

I certainly hope they're open to the idea of him, or anyone, being a help in 2024, but I certainly hope they aren't counting on it in any way. And definitely not looking for 3 or 4 lock down innings in a playoff game. And I hope they aren't building their development plan around that idea. I know I've been on these boards pushing a "win now" mentality all offseason, but building a development plan around the idea of him being a key piece in the 2024 playoffs feels incredibly shortsighted. If he's one of their 9 to 11 best pitchers come August I hope they get him on the 40-man to be an option come October, but there's a whole lot of guys he needs to jump to get to the top 9 to 11.

Luis Arraez brought a different type of at bat than other guys. Correa takes different kinds of at bats. Kepler takes different kinds of at bats. I think you're overselling the impact someone like Santana can have. Matt Wallner isn't going to suddenly K at a 20% clip because of anything Santana says or does. Julien isn't going to change his approach. Maybe Kirilloff picks up some fielding tips? That sounds reasonable. I disagree with the idea that certain things can only be explained by someone with 8k+ MLB PAs. 100% disagree with that. Charlie Manuel is the highest regarded "hitting helper" (he was a manager for a long time so don't want to just call him a hitting coach) of the last 30 years or so from what I've read and heard. He had 432 MLB PAs. Barry Bonds was a horrible hitting coach and he had over 12k. Kevin Long is widely considered among the best hitting coaches right now and he had 0 MLB PAs. Kevin Seitzer is another name that comes up in discussions of the best hitting coaches right now (I think he's the current longest tenured hitting coach, but could be wrong there) and he had 6k. I think you're drastically overselling that idea. Nick Saban is widely considered the best college football coach of all time. He played 3 seasons at Kent State. Bill Belichick is in the discussion for best NFL coach ever and he didn't play a snap in the NFL.

It's really hard to be a major league baseball player. Even for all the guys we follow through the system that look like they're going to help carry our favorite team to a title. Jordy Blaze will keep working and I hope he's able to make an MLB career work, whether it's here or elsewhere. The chances are that he won't make it happen. But the chances of any individual player ever making it happen is miniscule. TD is doing their Top 20 prospect rankings right now and the chances that any one of those individual prospects ever make it is miniscule. It's just so hard to be a major league baseball player. I hope every prospect in every organization makes it. But picking out 1 guy and expecting them to make is a losing proposition. Even "bad" major league players are really, really good at baseball. Good luck to Jordan, and all the prospects working to make their dreams come true. I hope they all succeed, but I hope the ones with the Twins succeed more.

Having leadership is obviously important, but do you think Jackson and Santana were needed for leadership so much that their talent shouldn't be the first consideration? I'm not saying the Twins don't think both will be very good, or that fans shouldn't think that (I do question their talent), but are Jax, Lopez, Paddack, Staumont, Stewart, DeSclafani, and Thielbar not enough leadership for the pitching staff? That's a lot of MLB experience right there. Did they really need Jackson to hold the young guy's hands? Are Vazquez, Correa, Farmer, Kepler, and Buxton not enough to lead the hitters room? That's a whole lot of MLB experience there. Did they really need Santana to help mold guys? There's definitely a bunch of young talent on this team, but there's also a whole lot of veterans, too. Santana leading while OPSing under .700 doesn't feel like a better fit than someone like Soler who has 10 years of MLB experience himself, but also carries a much bigger stick. Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach, Gordon, Castro, Lewis, and Miranda all have multiple MLB seasons under their belts (not always full years, but they've been around). Definitely still some youth in there, but it's not like they're getting their first taste of the big leagues. Ober, Winder, Topa, Ryan, Alcala, and Duran have multiple years in MLB. Still some youth there, but they're not rookies by any means. This team feels like it already had a whole bunch of veteran leadership on hand. I assume the Twins think Jackson and Santana are going to be good at baseball this year, but I hope they didn't give them an extra boost for leadership when they already have so many vets on the squad. Vazquez, Correa, Buxton, Farmer, and Lopez should be able to lead the clubhouse pretty well on their own I'd think.