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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. When choosing between 89 games vs. 1 inning, I’ll go with the larger sample size.
  2. Since he wears No. 13 and is from Venezuela, I think Adrianza should get a game at SS in Cleveland. I have to imagine Vizquel was a hero.
  3. It’s what Luddites like me use. Have you seen those new phones that have buttons and no cords? I’m thinking of getting one.
  4. Thanks for this reminder to check my cable system. If yours is like mine, they are running a promo for MLB Extra Innings and showing all the games for a week immediately after the All-Star Break. As a good friend of mine says, “‘Free’ is my favorite flavor.”
  5. Comeback Player of the Year? Buxton seems the obvious choice, but it’s hard to argue against Perez, or even Pineda.
  6. I don't get the "the Twins never do anything" argument. First, I think it's unfair to compare 2016 and before to the present. Sure, the owner is the same and that matters a lot, but it's Falvey and Levine in the chairs now rather than their predecessors. Second, I'd love to have someone smarter than me (which means many of you) do a serious analysis of their transactions since coming on board and measure how many "wins" and "losses" they've had. I tend to be an optimist, but it seems to me like they've had a lot more wins than losses. And one can't quantify these, but it seems like they've also had plenty of "wins" in the "pass" category as well (Darvish, most of the relievers in last winter's class, as it turns out). Third, I don't know whether this is a legitimate way to quantify things, but I did a search for "traded" in MLB.com's list of July 2018 transactions. It showed up 52 times. Each trade needs two partners, so that's 104. Divide by 30 and you get that teams, on average, made about 3.5 trades. The Twins made seven. In 2017, there were 62 trades, so an average of just over 4 trades per team. The Twins made five, and remember that they seemed to spend much of 2017 in "analysis" mode. That is at least suggesting that it's possible that the Twins make more transactions than average, at least during July. Fourth, in addition to making more than an average number of trades over the past two Julys, I'd also suggest that that in both seasons, they made the right type of trade for their context. If they've done that the past two years, what is to suggest that they won't do it again this year? In addition, in this very unscientific study, it also seems worth noting that in 2017, 30 of the 62 trades happened on July 26 or later (and another 5 on the 24th). In 2018, 36 of the 52 trades happened on July 26 or later, including 23 (close to half) on the 30th and 31st alone. In both years, trades were made throughout the month, but it takes two to tango, and the reality is that over the past two years, 58 percent of the trades were made in the last six days of the month. We don't know what effect not having waiver trades this year will make. We also can "make an offer they can't refuse," but that's pretty synonymous with "give up more than you need to," which doesn't seem to be this front office's mindset. But based on history, I'll be surprised if the team (read "pitching staff" doesn't look significantly different three weeks from Thursday.
  7. This is a helpful exercise, and I think you've demonstrated that when he's healthy, Sano's numbers are as good as (or better than) almost anyone's. However, at this point in his career, we also have to acknowledge that Sano has had gaps of 27, 28, 24, 38, and 42 of his team's games when he was not available to the team because of injury, plus a stretch of 25 games at the end of 2018 in which he played 1 game. That's a little more than a season's worth of games missed over almost exactly four seasons. So while it's true that his stats have been equivalent or better than, say, Kepler per 162 games, Kepler has so far demonstrated a much greater likelihood of playing close to 162 games in a season.
  8. Wow -- watching MLB Network and Jake Merisnick just leveled the hardest blow on a catcher (Matt LeCroy) that I've seen in a while. Called out on replay, and I'd not be surprised if a suspension results. At the least, Merisnick is going to get decked next time he's up.
  9. It sounded like we could have ended up with this...
  10. Do you see the buttons with the up arrow and the down arrows? Don’t hit them.
  11. Yep, your last sentence is perhaps the most significant in this entire thread. So far, we have had only five starts outside of Berrios, Odo, Gibson, Perez, Pineda, and two of those were doubleheader. We’ve only lost three starts to the IL. The bullpen has also been generally healthy.
  12. Rarely lights the first one in the package though.
  13. Because Littell can help the next few days if needed. And Saturday evening, they can decide whether to make it a bullpen game or call up Stewart (started Sunday) or Smeltzer (Tuesday) (or Hutchison from Monday, but I'd prefer they not go there). (Of course, a Stewart decision would have to happen before Saturday night.)
  14. I think the correct answer among these four is... Yes. (And gosh, has it been fun so far!)
  15. I think the radio guys said a couple innings ago that they have decided that Gibson will not start until Wednesday to give him extra time. They were speculating that Thorpe may get the start after not being needed today. (Edit: Ninja’ed by Danchat.)
  16. You’re a little late, but thanks for your anti-jinx contribution to today’s game. :-)
  17. Wasn’t he DFAed along with Pineda earlier this week?
  18. Let the hype begin. Where is the commissioner? With his next home run, Der Schlagger will tie Mike Blowers for most career home runs for a player born in Germany.
  19. Thanks for your anti-jinx contribution to today’s game.
  20. I'm with you on that. I'm not inherently arguing for or against last night's bunt. And it seems that, if he indeed said that Polanco was on his own last week, that he does know the book. I think that one of the skills of a good manager (and a skill that I think Rocco has the potential to be really good at) is to know when and how often to be a contrarian in a given situation for the greater good.
  21. I should have started the DP sentence with "Also." My bigger point is that Polanco has been the best hitter on the team and Schoop is hitting ninth for a reason. As well as to note that two baseball situations are rarely "exactly the same," since there are so many variables to account for.
  22. I've generally been impressed with Baldelli. He seems to have good people skills, which I think is tremendously under-rated and non-quantifiable, and I've generally sense that he's not given to bunt. It's a small sample, but this site seems to suggest that he has bunted 18 percent less than average so far. I'm not sure I trust that, however, since it seems to be measuring successful sacrifices, rather than attempted. I've especially been impressed that Baldelli seems to take the long view. We've noted what seems like intentional efforts to get guys rest, etc. That makes me wonder -- he seems cerebral enough to be willing to take an approach that says, "If I bunt in this situation, when the 'traditional' folks say I should and the 'analytics' folks say I shouldn't, I let people think that I'm willing to bunt. In the playoffs or a particularly crucial situation, there's no way I'm going to bunt. But if I never do it, people are going to see that tendency in me. I'm willing to bunt in this 'marginal' situation to keep the fear of a bunt in people's minds down the road." I was fascinated by Bill James when I was reading his Abstracts back in the 1980s, and I'm analytical by nature. But it's nuances like that where I think analytics can break down. Chiming in on a Web site, we just don't have a way of knowing the entire picture. And so, in the seventh inning of Game 3 this October, when a 3B sneaks in a step in a similar situation and Arraez smacks one by him, let's remember that game back in June when Rocco went against the book.
  23. A crucial difference in the two situations is the batter, however. Without considering their relative success as bunters, the run expectancy with Polanco hitting away is considerably higher than with Schoop hitting away. Per 162 games in his career, Schoop has hit into 16 DPs, whereas Polanco has hit into 8.
  24. Discussing when Buxton might be activated from the DL, Provus noted that Byron had done some hitting in the cage today. The always-insightful Gladden chimed in to point out that Buxton was also able to run the bases during warmups. Uh, Dan, it was a wrist injury.
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