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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Where Did the Good Carlos Correa Go?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Look, I like the guy. I've become a fan. He's been gracious, hard working, team oriented and a leader. And even while his defensive stats are down, I've loved watching him play SS and he's made a real difference there. But his offense has not been anything close to what was expected by the FO, I'm sure, or fans. or Correa himself I'd bet. Slow start, hit streak, then slow again. Hey, maybe it's just a weird year for him due to the one injury and covid break. I don't know. Guy might just RAKE next year for the Twins or someone else. And he has time to get hot the last month and a half plus and make everyone eat their opinions. But as of now, his numbers simply aren't that of a SUPERSTAR $35M player. They just aren't. And past and future doesn't speak to NOW. And the now is his bat has disappointed based on expectation. Now, past leads us to believe what he's capable of doing yet again. But the OP and what we're discussing is the player he is in 2022. And that player is not a $35M superstar. -
Good for Varland! I hope he finishes strong! Glad to see Lee bypass Ft Myers and go straight to Cedar Rapids. I think he's just too good, too talented not to push him a little to end 2023.
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- louis varland
- brooks lee
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So Pagan has almost inarguably been the worst RP in all of MLB over a 3yr time span. He's very possibly the Twins #8 reliever now, 7th at best and is confined to a middle inning role. And he has no future with the club. Literally, would ANYONE be worse? At least someone younger could learn on the job and gain experience at the ML level for 2023 and beyond.
- 26 replies
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- drew strotman
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Minor League Report (8/6): Offense Galore
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Palacios will need to be protected. You don't just give up a talented glove like his, position flexibility, and a potentially decent bat for nothing. At worst, he's probably a nice utility player. At best, he might be a starting SS for someone. If Correa leaves, he's the Twins starting SS to begin 2023, IMO. Really nice to see Enlow take a step forward. He was just turning a corner before he got hurt. A positive finish sets him up for a nice 2023. Is Sisk flying under the radar? Low A in 2019, no 2020, jumps to high A and then AA in 2021 before coming to the Twins in trade. Great start at Wichita this year and almost as good at St Paul so far. But to be fair, only 16IP at AAA so far. But he's shown nice, normal, steady progression. I'm sure he's behind Moran for now, unless the Twins want 3 LH in the pen. But I'd think he's a keeper for 2023 even if he doesn't audition this year. Can't risk losing a mid 20's LHRP showing promise.- 13 replies
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- jermaine palacios
- blayne enlow
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Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The OP is about Correa, but I think bringing in discussion of Lewis and Palacios is relevant. IMO...and it's a combination of hope and belief in the kid...Lewis will recover and be an excellent ML player for years to come, even if he doesn't achieve the grandiose level of SUPERSTAR. If Correa is one and done, I could still see the Twins brining in a placeholder. Why wouldn't you? You'd be crazy not to have depth and options. A refresher on Palacios. He was traded for Odorizzi before 2018 as a good glove SS who could hit. Except, he didn't for 2yrs and was released after those 2yrs, and re-signed by the Twins following the missed 2020 season. And suddenly, he had learned to hit again. 2021 at AA: .259/ .340/ .439/ .779 with 17dbls, 19hr, and 18-8sb 2022 at AAA, so far: .297/ .360/ .477/ .837 with 24dbls, 10hr, and 10-7sb. His glove appears to be legit from reputation and what we saw in limited action. He's actually improved as a hitter despite jumping up a level in 2022. Really, only his SB % has dropped. All of that coming off a very strong winter league performance. Is he a late bloomer after 2 failed years and a missed season? Kind of looks that way. You could knock 40-50 points off each of his quad slash line numbers and still have an effective "contributor" offensively while playing great defense. I know I'd take that over what we saw in Simmons in 2021. Understand, I'm a fan of Correa and NOT saying I wouldn't like him back. I just don't, as of now, see a reality where he is. And I'm not trying to blow goofy smoke of illusions to anyone that a late blooming Palacios is a long term answer or that the Twins shouldn't look at a veteran fill in option should Correa actually leave. I am only trying to look beyond tomorrow to say that if he does, indeed, move on, a single spot in the lineup doesn't have to mean automatic depression or incompetence. There may be options and the $35M saved, plus Sano $ saved, plus Rogers $ saved, and possibly Sanchez $ saved, just might be better spent on extensions and additions. It would be great to have Correa back, somehow, some way. I'd be happy. But the sky won't fall if he does leave. It might even open up some new opportunities. In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy having him around and hope his recent struggles reverse themselves and he will help the Twins win the ALC and some playoff games and then we will see what happens from there.- 88 replies
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- carlos correa
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Could Carlos Correa Opt Back in for 2023?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've become a fan. From day one he's just been a great teammate and leader for the team in general, and the infield in particular. He's done and said everything right, even to the point of taking a real interest in the trade deadline. His offense has not been as expected or hoped for, and the numbers bear that out. Still, he's been good. I have learned to understand and appreciate various statistics and analytics. But my goodness, there are so many that at times I'm just wondering what new defensive or pitching metric comes out next! Not everyone even agrees or supports some of the ones in existence now. Errors may be up, and his metrics might be down, but I've just loved watching him play defense and have not been disappointed. I've been very happy to have him, despite a good season being a "down" one. He's said and done all the right things to the Nth degree. He and his family like it here. I'm sure those statements are true. And maybe, just maybe he DOES want to opt in, help the Twins win, and bet on himself for a 6-8yr deal following a better 2023. I can see a path where that could happen. But here's the reality, he's getting paid almost $70M if he stays. He's getting over $100M if he stays all 3yrs and then hits FA near 30yo and will still probably get a solid offer of 4-5yrs from someone. But if he opts out for a new 7yr deal at "just" $25M...for conversation sake...that's still $175M GUARANTEED. Simple math shows he has an additional, approximate, $75M more locked in vs playing out his Twins deal and then looking at FA again. And I think my $25M is probably conservative. No matter what way he goes, he and his family are set for life and beyond. But I just don't see sticking around...making great $ to be sure...and then trying again in a year or two when he can opt out now and play the field for even more guaranteed money even if it's never going to be $35M per. COULD the Twins re-work his deal and add years? Absolutely. They could take on another 2yrs, keep the deal front loaded as it is now for around $35M, and then drop what would be years 4 and 5 to something around $30 and $25M. That means he can hit FA again at age 31. Is he still a viable SS then? Maybe. That gives roughly $160M in 5yrs with the Twins. So, again, he comes out ahead getting a new deal from someone else. He only stays if he and his family truly want to stay, and he's content with a deal re-worked for $160-175M because money doesn't always buy happiness and that's enough for him, with the opportunity to still sign another 3-4yrs elsewhere to finish out his career for $X, for age 31-34/35. I just don't see it happening.- 88 replies
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- carlos correa
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Minor League Recap (8/5): Offensive Explosion
DocBauer replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Glad to see Sanchez back to fill a roster spot for the Saints. And as well as he's pitched since coming to the organization, he might be finding himself again. Might be a 6th starter for us at some point. Nice to see Wallner get going. What on earth is going on with Palacios? WOW!- 11 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- matt wallner
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Trade Deadline Proves Value of the Twins' Young Core
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Two of my all time favorite quotes: George Carlin: "You can't have everything. Where would you put it?" Rolling Stones: "You can't always get what you want" I really like the way this team is constructed position player wise. IMEDIATE CAVEAT: I like/love the position players and lineup with a healthy AK. Without him, it's still good. But without him, we need to add a bat somehow, some way. And I don't necessarily mean a DH. There is no reason, especially how this team is built, to have ONE GUY filing a non defensive position. Period! Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, not sure but Lewis eventually, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff, Jeffers is a great starting lineup. I like the ability and potential of Celestino as a 4th OF, but that wouldn't stop me from adding competition. Not sure what Gordon has to do to prove he's a really nice 25th man. I would bet Ursela is brought back for 2023. Despite trades made, there are a couple of very interesting prospects from Palacios, (a possible fill in at SS to begin. 2023), to Hellman to Julian moving up and a couple others. Can Wallner continue to grow and develop? Is there any chance Isola can continue to it and play good defense behind the plate and be a viable catching option soon? Could Williams suddenly climb the latter as a 1B/DH/C? The roster looks very good with the exception of SS to still be figured out. And there are some interesting pieces getting close to at least provide depth. Am I the only one who's been intrigued by Correa's recent comments about making additions? Is he only being a great teammate and wanting to win? Or is he really sincere about sticking around? Just something to contemplate and fantasize about I guess. The lineup is just fine with heath and questions about SS being the only main issue. After that, it's backup/shared catcher and competition for the 4th OF spot. Pitching wise, how can you not be exited for Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Winder, Ober, etc, with depth from various arms even before the FO MIGHT make a move. And Paddack comes back June/July. If the FO is as smart as I think they are, they will learn from their mistakes and add at least one solid arm to this group, if not a great one. Rotation and bullpen, it's awesome to have a plan that makes sense in your blueprint. But when 2020 happens...and I know some are tired and dismissive, but it happened...you have to adjust. And the FO has done that, much to their chagrin I'm sure. There is a real chance that guys like Balazovic and SWR and others will rebound in 2023 and we will wonder WTH suddenly happened from one year to the next. I know he's not a pitcher, but think about Martin for a moment. He was drafted in 2019, missed an entire season of ball, went straight to AA, and we wonder about developing and urgency. SWR was moved very early, lossed half of of a year due to the Olympics and we wonder how such a talented young arm isn't ready yet. I'm not yet a dis-believer in the pipeline yet. I've seen early returns. And I hope to see more soon. But I haven't yet lost faith in the plan or some of the arms. And I don't want the FO to be complacent. But I'm still holding out real hope for some arms that could make a difference -
OK, YES, Maeda might be the biggest missing piece. Short season or not, he was OUTSTANDNG in 2020. Despite that, he was working on a new pitch to be even better going forward. And he was looking great in ST and ready to roll. And then his arm betrayed him. And a healthy Alcala, growing and developing and coming off a tremendous late 2021 run, has been missed. And listing them is obvious and relevant to be sure. And perhaps they should be included. No argument from me. But in regard to just the OP.... ....I'm really torn how to rank these choices. 3] I actually like Jeffers a lot as a catcher, even though he's disappointed this year with the bat. (Though he was heating up and has real bat potential). Sanchez is much better than I expected defensively, and I think some of that is kudos to the Twins. Love his arm. Leon has next to nothing with the bat but hope, but he provides what you need behind the plate. 2] I'm going to say Ober as #2 due to his ability, and potential, but also because of the rash of injuries in the OF. I think a lot of people sell Ober short. His IP were closely monitored in 2021 for a real reason. He was looking very good in 2022 before his injury. Frankly, he was better than Bundy or Archer. He might have continued to be a 5 IP starter who might occasionally pitch 6, but he's still better than anyone else. I think we've missed him a LOT! He has a chance to be a solid back end piece for the next few years. 1] Take your pick between Kepler, Kirilloff, and Larnach. Arraez and Miranda can play an OK 1B. But AK can play a very good 1B, a solid OF, and has legitimate middle of the order production if he can get 100% one of these days. Contreras is a good defensive OF, but he's not the experienced Kepler nor does he have his bat. And Larnach is "solid" in the OF with a great arm who has shown in 2021 and 2022 that his bat has real life and potential. Give me ONE of them healthy and ready to go I'm OK and sorta happy. Give me 2 and ecstatic. All 3 back somehow? I'm going to dance an embarrassing jig. Based on the OP, that's my list.
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- ryan jeffers
- alex kirilloff
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Personally, I think Sands is up temporarily until they can bring Moran back up. Makes a heck of a lot more sense. I do believe there is a chance that Sands does, indeed, end up in the pen eventually. I don't think it will happen until next year though. While he just hasn't been the SP I was really hoping he was going to be this year, we're starting to run out of options if we have to dip down to St Paul. So I think any transition will take place next year. AND...while I've been optimistic a less pressure impacted, middle innings Pagan might be valuable to us...after his last appearance being so horrible I'm just starting to wonder if the squeeze is worth the juice. I don't know for sure who you'd replace him with, but maybe he needs to be gone next. Peacock maybe??
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I remember when he first came up in 2015 and looked like a HOPEFUL piece for the future of the rotation. Man, he looked solid and made some batters look just silly. After finding out he just wasn't, in fact, a ML SP, he was absolutely lights out as a FIREMAN in 2019 and '20. He got off to a poor start in 2021, but re-worked a few things, settled down, and had a really nice year after that rough start. But that early 2021 and a drop in velocity and K numbers was teasing the end. I was really hoping the "not as good" but still solid Duffey of 2021 was going to return in 2022. It just didn't happen. And that's too bad. He has been an important part of some very good teams and a class act all the way. I wish him all the luck in the world going forward.
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Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Month - July 2022
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Seth, I've heard and read your referencing Nowlin more than a few times. Small school kid, not that big, but seems to have some electricity in his arm. He's been splitting his time between starting and relieving. Walks are too high, but the rest of his numbers are good and the K's are fantastic. He screams possible electric RP capability. Or is there more to develop and he has a shot to be a SP? Really like to hear your thoughts on him. Seems he's an arm nobody really knows or pays attention to.- 12 replies
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- mike paredes
- marco raya
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Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Month - July 2022
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I can't quantify why exactly, gut feeling maybe? But I just keep thinking Funderburk is a BP just waiting to happen. And I get being a starter allows him more IP to work on all of his pitches to develop, but I keep thinking if they just moved him to the pen full time we might have a really good looking BP option that might move quickly.- 12 replies
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- mike paredes
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Obvious caveat that I wish a couple good signings had happened before the season so we didn't have to make all the trades. There, had to be said. But I really, really like what they did! I give the FO a solid "A". I think we gave up some really good young talent. Steer would have been a good utility player for us, but we have some, more are on their way, and Lee mitigates not only his loss but CES as well. CES might end up being a true 3 outcome 1B/DH, but I think he could be a dangerous one at that. I liked him as a possible 1B option to replace Kirilloff if, God forbid, his wrist never does get right. And I think Povich and Hajjar have a real shot at being solid SP at the ML level, with floors as really good BP options. And the system isn't exactly flush with LHP. But Prielipp might be as good or better than either. And you have to give to get, and the FO didn't touch the 40 man, which is fantastic. I really like Mahle and at 27yo he's just coming in to what should be his very best years. And away from the Red's ballpark, his numbers are very, very good. I can easily see a path where he and the equally young Paddack, once healthy, are both extension candidates that could be part of the rotation for years to come. While it's possible there could be changes, maybe even a possible quality offseason addition, 2023's rotation begins with Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Mahle, and deepens with Winder, Ober, a healthy Paddack, Smeltzer, a healthy Dobnak, and some young arms who keep developing and/or getting healthy. Even if Lopez has some regression for what he's doing now, he'd still be excellent. Fulmer has only been a RP for 2yrs now and has looked good doing it. I'd lay $ he's a re-sign. Add in Duran, Jax, a healthy Alcala, Thielbar, Moran, Pagan as a middle innings arm with velocity and K ability, and the 2023 pen already looks very good even before we talk about Megill and a couple other "interesting" arms or prospects moving to the pen. I have respect for Leon as a fine defensive catcher who can handle a staff and has a ton of experience. No problem with him. And while he might surprise, I had hoped for a backstop who might be expected to hit .200 and not someone we hope will. But that's a small quibble at this point. I held out some small hope the FO might find a rental rotation arm on the cheap for a couple lower level fliers. And I don't think we'll ever know if they tried, or if there just wasn't anyone they liked better than Bundy and Archer. Bundy hasn't been Mr. Consistent, but he's certainly passed my expectations. Archer has been solid in regard to his role. But I am disappointed he hasn't found the sustainability to consistently reach 5 innings. Maybe too much to expect in 2022 after all his setbacks? I wasn't expecting a last minute addition, but I wouldn't have been opposed to it. I understand some who feel a bat was needed. To me, that was a need, potentially, after what they got. You can't trade for better health. I wish you could. But a healthy Kepler helps a lot. If at least one of Larnach or Kirilloff can be fit and ready for September and beyond, I still really like the position players, depth, versatility, and overall production. Just, please, a little better health to finish the year! SIDE NOTE: While not trade acquisitions, I really think Sanchez and Peacock could be late season surprises. Sanchez was good, disappeared, re-surfaced poorly with Washington earlier this season, but has looked great with St Paul and had a very impressive 1 start with the Twins, showing good stuff. I'd love to keep him around. Peacock was a very useful jack of all trades with Houston for years. He was throwing great for the Royals AAA Omaha club, and I have no idea why they released him, unless it was just due to age. But if he truly has something left, he could be a surprise option if needed. Go Twins! Time to take the ALC and go from there!
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- derek falvey
- tyler mahle
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A problem I have with the FO is "fear". Especially in regard to the pen. They aren't afraid to take a chance on someone, but they are equally afraid to let someone go, seemingly "afraid" they might lose out on someone. What more does Moran have to do to earn an extended shot? How can he get better and grow and prove he belongs other than to stick around? The Twins are not going to get the Duffey of old magically and are almost certain not to bring him back, unless it's on a milb deal. And I'm OK walking away from Pagan as well, but at least I can see velocity and a somewhat decent breaking ball and a splitter that is still a work in progress but shows potential. So while I'd run with someone else, at least I can see a reason to stick with him for a little longer. And I think Duffey is a great guy and teammate and did a great job for a few seasons, but the harsh reality is he's got nothing left but guts and guile and its not working. And you're trying to win now, and next year. Who gives you a better chance to do that? A RP who's toast? Or a young arm with potential who will hopefully get better with time and experience? I actually kinda like Megill a bit. So they keep him up but send down Moran with as much or more potential? Duffey should have a "tired arm" or SOMETHING, if you want to keep him and SEE. Otherwise, quit being afraid. If somethings not working, then go down a different path.
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- joe ryan
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Twins Tidbit: Jose Miranda is a Top Rookie Slugger
DocBauer replied to TwinsData's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think what we've been watching is a very talented young hitter just beginning to figure it out. And he's only going to get better. I see him as a fixture for the next several years in the lineup with, HOPEFULLY, an eventually healthy AK and Larnach. IMPO, I think the defense arguements against Miranda have been blown out of proportion. First of all, I've seen a whole lot of rookies, not just with the Twins, struggle a bit with defense at first. Rookies are playing and hitting at an entirely different level, with an entirely different sort of pressure. Secondly, being a young rookie, 21-24yo, and being a top prospect, doesn't mean there isn't work yet to do. Most aren't a finished product, infield in particular, when promoted, and their bat gets them promoted first. And third, while I don't have the numbers in front of me at the moment, he has been primarily a 3B the past few years. So his learning more about 1B at the ML level, and making rookie mistakes, doesn't surprise me. NOTE: I've seen him make a poor play at 1B and then same game, or next, do exactly what he was supposed to. So he's learning. At 3B, reflecting on the Twins ONLY, Gaetti, Koskie, Plouffe, defensive improvement doesn't happen over night. I think the kid is going to be just fine. -
Have the Twins Seen the End of Miguel Sano?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There remains a chance that Sano's latest setback is brief and nothing more than a "tweak". Little scar tissue situation or a small hyper extension, that sort of thing. So he rehabs and rests, goes back to St Paul, mashes a couple of days, and then takes a week to settle in and look bad before connecting on a few hits, take a few walks, and hit a couple of bombs. So he just MIGHT give the Twins a month and a half of solid production, maybe a couple big moments, as sort of a "parting gift", not including the possibility of him, potentially, making some noise in the post season at the bottom of the order. But that's it. He doesn't fit this team in 2023, and is now probably untradeable. So we might see him, especially due to other injuries. But if we do, it's a last hurrah.- 37 replies
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- miguel sano
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The Ever Underrated Jorge Polanco
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I LOVE ME some Byron Buxton. Offensively and defensively he is just a difference maker and we are just part of his baseball world when he's out there. He's just that good, even being sub-human as he is now, fighting through his knee issue. Not a team in baseball that wouldn't want Buck on their team. But Polanco is so underated its amazing. He plays a good, sometimes great 2B, and only gets better. He hits, gets OB, seldom SO, makes great contact, has power, and comes through in the clutch. CRUNCH time happens, I want Arraez and Polanco up to bat. No disrespect to Buxton or AC4. Kirilloff and Miranda, unless we do something stupid and trade one of them, are going to be part of the heart ofthe order for many years to come. But Polanco is so good, and so versatile, he could hit 2-5 and be just as dangerous and effective. And he's not exactly old. He's a keeper, IMO, and a re-sign the next year or so.- 8 replies
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- jorge polanco
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I don't believe the Twins don't have some good pitching prospects, in a vacuum. I think they do. The problem is some are very new and at lower levels, and with the exception of Varland, almost everyone has been battling SOMETHING, whether injury or control, or returning from injury. Pretty hard to be the trading team and trade for someone having a rough season, no matter any potential. A couple BP additions, rental or otherwise, shouldn't deplete the system. And while I don't necessarily believe the Castillo trade sets a bar, it's going to be hard to acquire what is perceived as a true top of the rotation piece. A Rodon trade might just work, IF the Giants are in sell mode. And to me, that sort of brings us back to Mahle, who I like. He's only 27yo, in his 3rd consecutive SOLID season, and has room to develop, potentially, away from Cincinnati. I'm still wondering though, if the Marlins aren't the best option. They seem to need offense. And they have a number of arms. And while I don't like to play the "who" game in regard to trades because it's so subjective, I do look at Steer, Wallner, Julien, CES and some other, younger options they may be interested in. Some of whom haven't hit full stride yet, but have talent. And there is enough pitching depth to offer up a couple interesting arms with potential to make the deal work, potentially. Maybe a 2 for 5 or 6 type of deal. And while it might sound crazy on the surface, I wonder about including Sano in the deal as sort of a throw in flier. I mean, think about it from Miami's point of view. He's not yet 30yo, has a career OPS of .800+, can carry a team for stretches, might start a season better playing in warmer weather, and if the Twins ate the remainder of his 2022 and maybe his $3M 2023 buyout, (and they've done similar before), would he make the Marlins bite and push them over on a 6 for 2 kind of deal? I mean, they get him for free to finish the season, audition him, and can re-sign him if they want without having to pay for the buyout. Hell, they might get 5 good prospects and a $7+M potential steal in Sano.
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Trade Rumor: Could the Twins be a suitor for Carlos Rodon?
DocBauer replied to cHawk's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
We heard the Twins had conversations with Rodon this past offseason. We now here they were "right there" before he signed with the Giants. We can only speculate what "right there" means. While listening to the latest Gleeman and the Geek, somewhat distracted, if I heard correctly the reason the Twins didn't land Rodon was, paraphrasing, was length and annual value, meaning they were probably "in" for 1yr, or 2yrs, but not the combined value of the full 2yrs. And I can see that due to past injury concerns and some question as to why the Dirty Sox passed on him. Losing 7 in a row and perhaps uncertain if they have a team ready to make a run, I could see the Giants being sellers, though it might be 50/50 or 60/40 against. Hard to say. But I'm interested and calling to see what it would cost, and if they're in sell mode. His ERA has risen over the past few weeks, but his numbers are solid across the board from what I've seen. So I don't know that he's winding down and SF has necessarily gotten the "best" of him in 2022. And the Twins do a good job of mitigating IP for their SP. (Open opportunity for someone to make a negative comment about SP usage by the Twins). Nothing says the Twins can't re-sign Rodon to an extension if he continues to look good and healthy. The payroll isn't bad, and have some $ coming off the books, even without Correa opting out. But if he does, there's a TON more to use somewhere meaningful. I'd be kicking the tires for sure. -
Just wanted to post my general thoughts and opinions on Nick's OP and the state of the Twins in general. It's going to be long, but follow me here. 1] Overall, I think the Twins have a good team and a lot of quality talent. It's not ALL "ALL STAR" caliber but nobody has ALL STAR talent EVERYWHERE. And I know a piece of two could be moved, but when I look at a daily team of Larnach, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, Kirilloff, and yes, even Jeffers, I'm excited about what I see, with a few more bats getting really close and some solid bench/role players. Yes, SS is a question mark, and one that's not going to be answered until the offseason. A healthy Gray is a very good pitcher, not only in the past, but this year as well. Ryan is a very good looking young arm with a good future, though I don't know just HOW GOOD he might end up. But how could anyone know right now? I think Ober has been missed, is good, and has a nice future, even if he's only a solid #4 type. But again, I think the Twins are really missing him right now. I think Winder has a real chance to be good, and maybe very good. And no way he's traded right now with a re-accurance of his shoulder issue. And I don't know if that's still a result of 2020 and loss of natural maturation and usage and build up, or something physical that needs to be taken care of. But the Twins need to FIGURE IT OUT and get him right. A healthy Paddack is a 2023 mid season "acquisition" with another year of control and potential to be a solid piece of the rotation. He's talented and very young and his early work with the Twins in 2022 was encouraging. A healthy, experienced, and savy Maeda might not approach his 2020. But he has the ability to still be very solid, if 100%. The pitching "pipeline" HAS brought the Twins some arms, but for various reasons, it's behind the lineup to be sure. And as much as we bang on the bullpen, we've seen Duran make a serious mark. We've seen Jax make a great transition, and we've seen Alacala at least tease the same. Moran looks at least useful, if not potentially good. 2] All of this to say there's a lot of good here, including a system that is very deep with a lot of talent, even if it's not flush with projected top 100 NAMES that scream difference makers. But then again, not all top 100 players turn out, and "difference makers" aren't always top 100 players. Arraez, on the Twins now, is a perfect example. 3] The Twins aren't smoke and mirrors. They are a good team with a lot of talent and a very nice projectible future with a nice window, still open, after a poor 2021. Crazy how a last place team is suddenly winning and doing well and all to often we can only see the "bad things" in a FLIP season. There are NEEDS to take this team to the next level. Some of those are purely health related. Some are related to continued development and promotion. Some are trades, or FA related to augment what is on hand. There! Done! Now to the OP! This team, and organization as it stands now, is built for the future. But it's also built for NOW with some additions. That's why Correa was signed and Gray was traded for. I don't like to participate in the "trade game" because while it might be fun, it's such a complete mystery we might as well try to predict the next draft. 1] The Twins need a SP as good as Gray and Ryan. That could be a "so called" #3 who is really good. I think we need to just STOP with the trade for some #1 SP. How many, guaranteed #1 SP are available to acquire??? There's a handful of very good SP that are available, such as Castillo and Montas. And they are very good pitchers. Are they that much better than a healthy Gray or Ryan? Opinions will vary. But they are at least equivalent. But they are not the only available arms that are good, experienced, and as good as Gray and Ryan. Mahle and Marquez are a pair of arms that could be as good with a change of scenery and give the Twins a trio of legitimate playoff arms. I don't hate Nick's idea of adding Thor, but he's not the pitcher he has been before. He just might be closer to his old self in 2023, and a possible re-sign, but he wouldn't be a bad "cheap" trade option for an experienced and solid #3 for now. 2] Bard is my dream #2 RP trade target, but I just can't see trading a top 15 pitching prospect in Povich. I just think think that's too rich for a rental. Love to have him as my #2 choice and maybe re-sign him, but I'd rather see a slightly lesser prospect or a 2 for 1 deal. I like Robertson from the Cubs more, but splitting hairs. Everyone is looking to add BP pieces? I get it. But do rentals really cost top 10-15 prospects to do so? Has a single WC addition really escalated the value of a rental that much? If so, it's worth it IF the FO really likes what they acquire and recognize they have the payroll to re-sign to make it worthwhile. 3] Texas flier on Matt Moore for Julien and SGL? Again, a top offensive player and a solid arm for what I believe is a rental. Are you ready to give up that much, knowing you have a deep system, for a 1 year surprise that you MIGHT re-sign? I could see this one happening and I think I'd do it in a heartbeat because of immediate return and what should be an easy re-sign if we like him. 4] Hill from Boston for Sano? Sounds crazy. But honestly, we're talking about fits and non fits and the "good, bad and ugly" if it was a Western. I don't know that Hill does anything better than the "solid" Bundy. In fact, with $ thrown in, Boston might win the deal in long run. But I don't think Sano to ANYONE makes or breaks anything of value unless he's tossed in, along with $, as part of a deal. Personally, I see him as a part of a deal to Cincinnati, Colorado, or Miami as part of a 3-5 deal with $ for a SP AND a BP arm. A not yet 30yo 1B/DH with a career. 800+ OPS could be very interesting to at least a few teams looking to re-build and needing a dangerous bat, as a piece of a trade. Not a centerpiece, of course, but as part of a trade with $ thrown in. 4] No shade intended toward Hamilton, who might aquit himself well, but the idea of ANY experienced ML catcher for a low level PTBN could be very smart addition just to handle the staff at a ML level. SYNOPIS: Nick isn't wrong, though I disagree somewhat with his proposals. DON'T blow up the roster, or the system, just for 2022, and beyond because the team is primed to move forward. DO trade from within the team and system, and a deep system, and you can't keep everyone, unless asking prices are just exorbitant, to add a SP, 2 BP pieces. Add a catcher on the very cheap if you can. And don't worry about a 4th or 5th SP addition unless it comes very cheap. This is good team. It's a primed team with a widow that is still open even after 2021. Injuries have sunk part of their competitive capabilities. Now it's time for the FO to show what they're we made of to make additions without screwing up the future.
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Assuming, of course, that he actually does return to school. There's a whole lot of money still available on the proverbial table for another signing, or two.
- 26 replies
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- brooks lee
- connor prielipp
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Going to echo great thanks for some amazing hard work by you Jeremy, and Jamie. Much appreciated! Lee is going to stick at SS for at least a couple of years. And why wouldn't you see what he can do there? Arm and hands and instincts all say he can play the spot well, if not really well. Lack of great speed or, supposedly, great quickness says he moves one day. But I've seen a lot of really, really fine SS that lacked that extra quickness factor that were fine ML SS due to those instincts, hands, arm, and good positioning. Names like Ripken, Blauser and Correa pop in my head. Totally understand some scouts and pundit experts looking at Prielipp and thinking possible BP piece. But every single draft pick for as long as I can remember...with only a few exceptions every draft...is almost always "mid rotation starter with BP floor". Prielipp was an outstanding HS performer and top prospect. What he did at Alabama in his one year was SICK. Yes, it's going to take a couple years to be 100% physically, 100% in regained feel, 100% for a solid 3rd offering (or more), and a few years to rack up the innings. So what? Kid is quite young and has amazing potential. Still stunned he lasted until the Twins pick in the 2nd. Should have been gone late 1st, or top of the 2nd. Also surprised he didn't demand $2M+, which is what I thought. No question the Twins probably drafted at least a few guys over slot in order to under-sign to give them flexibility. Doesn't mean they drafted poorly, or guys who don't have futures. Very interesting to me that virtually all the position players, despite different levels of experience, seem to have good "hit" and contact tools, usually with some power. There's even some speed mixed in there. The Twins love their power, as all teams do, but over their last 5 drafts, they've also drafted some athletes with hit/contact. Just felt like a little more concentration this year. I just love drafting so many SS because they will stick or move to 3B, 2B, OF, and use their skills to starters or good utility players. And again, no way to predict who will turn out, but all these guys show athleticism, hit tool, and some projectability. Nice! But big shout out to 6th round pick, 2B, Jorel Ortega. One year wonder? Or a finally healthy hitting stud? Potentially huge steal there. 3 catchers selected in 2021 and 2 more this year. This organization values catching. They understand the importance, even if they aren't dropping TOP draft selections for them. But then again, who is? And how many TOP, can't miss catching prospects are there each year? Not sure I don't like Cossetti and Baez more than the 3 guys picked last year. Said it before and will say it again; you can more easily teach a catcher who hits to be better defensively than you can teach a defensive catcher to be a good hitter. I understand OF Sayre was a small school 17th round pick and his conference player of the year, but I'd sure like to know if there's something to like there. Nothing just seems to stand out from the small reports I've read other than solid hit tool. Untapped potential? Johnson and his entire scouting department could fall out of bed tomorrow, hit their heads, have concussions and amnesia and still know more than I do about scouting and projection. But why is it I look at numbers, and length, and reported stuff, and past examples, and find myself more intrigued by Matthews and Lewis than Morris and Jones, drafted before them? I kinda like the long, young, and less experienced Culpepper a bit as well. Possible surprise? Tell me LHP Zachary Veen and his amazing control didn't make you wonder for a moment? A couple MPH on his fastball has to have you thinking LH BP help, right? Pleasantly surprised it looks like both HS SS, Daniel and Ortiz, are both in the fold. Both well recruited and projectile. I thought the injury to Daniel might push him to a pro **** and some bonus $. But thought it would take more. And to get both? Awesome! Not sure what to think of SP McMillan from Alabama. He was their Friday starter, but his numbers were nothing special. A flier considering, as mentioned in the OP, because the Twins have a good relationship with the school and think he's ready to take another step? HS OF Dickerson sounds like a great recruit that might be a stud in 3yrs. But you draft him on a WTH whim "just in case". Well, based on available $ left and the 5% allowable overage, there is some REAL $ left to sign either McMillan or Dickerson, or both potentially. And I well remember Julien signing for over slot money at the last moment. Turned out to be a good move for the Twins, right. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these guys still signed. Overall, liked the approach of arms and SS and a pair of catchers with some worthwhile HS talent worth taking a shot on. Time will tell if this draft is anything beyond the first two selections, but the plan looks to have been a good one.
- 26 replies
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- brooks lee
- connor prielipp
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It's kind of a double edged sword to have a whole lot of good players/pitchers who have potential, but not enough room to protect all that you want. While I think it's safe to say the Twins had a great first couple of picks here in 2022, and there is the "just opened presents" in regard to hope for the remaining selections, they also have seen a lot of quality from the 2021 draft so far. But if you look a little further back at 2019 and 2018 you also see a pair of very good looking drafts. It's those 2 drafts that are the issue here as a large majority of the names mentioned throughout the discussion come from those two years. There are some HS kids still in the lower minors who aren't close to ready yet, and who don't need protection yet. And I know people are tired of the whole lost 2020 season debate, but the truth is, for the Twins and everyone else, it WAS a lost season that has affected so many and yet the clock didn't stop ticking. I think we all get wrapped up in prospect rankings and our team. And it's probably true right now the Twins aren't as highly ranked as other franchises since they don't seem to have those TOP prospects that appear to be elite. But those things can change quickly. Arraez was never considered anything close to elite. Nor was Miranda until last year. Steer is putting up similar numbers this year. Wallner may have jumped a couple levels, etc. So I would never discount DEPTH of talent in the system. With the exception of the HS kids, and a couple guys who were basically drafted hurt as potential steals and working themselves up just now, 2018 and 2019 FILL AA and AAA. Some look great, some OK, a couple we're not sure yet. There's enough DEPTH of talent to move a number of pretty decent to good looking prospects in the system for help without devastating anything. You just hope you end up keeping the best ones. But letting a number of those young players go for nothing is far more damaging than actually trading some as part of packages to get something in return.
- 40 replies
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- spencer steer
- matt wallner
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