Major League Ready

Are you saying Cleveland has not benefited greatly by trading these players or are you saying just don't care if it's worked or not. You still believe they must retain Jose Berrios as an example.

As you are well-aware, teams trading for players like Arraez and Kepler generally don't want to trade established players. Would you be willing to trade them for AAA guys or unproven ML players like Cleveland got in Gimenz / Rosario / Naylor and Clause?

You are doing a great job of illustrating my point. Cleveland has a very well-documented record that shows their sustained success has been greatly influenced by making Berrios type trades. Yet, your post indicates disdain because the result is not immediate which is my point. Fans don't want to follow the practices that have made Cleveland and for that matter Oakland and Tampa successful. You want immediate impact. Here is how I see the Berrios trade as of today. I would guess Berrios will bounce back but the fact that he had negative bWAR does not scream mistake. SWR could end up producing as well as Berrios over the next 6-7 years. This is how I would take Cleveland's strategy and adapt it to our situation next year. I will take the roughly $21M AAV over the next 5 years and add $9M AAV and sign someone like Nola. I am not saying they will I am saying this could be done. For $11M you upgrade from Berrios and add SWR and Martin. That easily has the potential to produce 10 WAR for $11M. Cleveland's success has been a product of executing these deals.

Clevinger was acquired via trade in 2014. He debuted in 2016 at age 25. They eventually traded him for Austin Hedges, Josh Naylor and Own Miller. Kluber also debuted in 2016. They got him by trading Jake Westbrook in 2013. They eventually traded Kluber for Emmanuel Clase who was ML ready. They acquired Carlos Corrasco for Cliff Lee. Cleveland acquired Lee a year before he debuted for Bortolo Colon. Colon was acquired in the international draft. So, the way that went was they drafted Colon and eventually traded him for Cliff Lee who they eventually traded for Carlos Corrasco who they eventually traded along with Francisco Lindor for Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez. The two of them produced 10 WAR last year. Trevor Bauer and Bryan Shaw were ML ready when Cleveland acquired them by trading Sin Soo Choo and Tony Sipp. Konnoe Pilkington was also acquired as a prospect. I keep hearing people calling for them to do what they did in Cleveland. However, much of Cleveland's most important pitching pipeline as well as their current position players were acquired by trading established players for prospects. Basically, they did several Jose Berrios type trades. There was a great deal of angst here when they did that trade. Some people are still complaining and saying they were not serious about building a contender when in fact similar trades had been a huge part of Cleveland’s success over the past couple of decades. They would have been a lot closer to the Royals over the past 20 years if not for trading established players for prospects.

Nor any other team in the bottom half of revenue. There were 14 deals with a total value over $60M. Ranked by value, they went to the teams listed below. 10 of the 14 went to NY, Philly and Chicago. 6 of them to NY. How many of these players went to teams that did not have significantly more revenue than the twins. SanDiego is the lone outlier. The big markets get these players every year. Then, in order to avoid a strike, the owners gave into player demands for a significantly higher luxury tax threshold and they did not increase the rate of taxation. This was the certain result. Why are we wondering why our team or any similar team do not get the prize free agents? This is the way it’s going to be unless the owners demand more parity and that will all but certainly result in a strike by the players. Aaron Judge NYY Carlos Correa NYM Trea Turner PHI Xander Bogaerts SD Jacob deGrom TEX Dansby Swanson CHC Carlos Rodon NYY Brandon Nimmo NYM Edwin Diaz NYM Willson Contreras STL Justin Verlander NYM Andrew Benintendi CHW Taijuan Walker PHI Jameson Taillon CHC Chris Bassitt TOR

This and the fact that we are talking about something that requires we be fully informed and have specific expertise to provide an informed opinion. Considering these things makes for a wasted opportunity to assert someone is incompetent.

You realize this is a Milb signing, right? Minor league deals for guys like this are a no-lose situation.

The players change for me if the list is strictly focused on 2023. They are once again not going to be serious contenders so the guys I would put at the top of the list are the players with upside and the players under team control get more weight. Their ability to contribute to building an actual contender is how I would define the most important to step up. Here is my top 10. Alex Kirilloff – He could be toast and he could be a #2-4 hitter for the next several years. He is #1 for me. Buxton – It would be easy to argue he is the most important. Our win/loss record with or without him supports that argument. The only reason I put Kirilloff first is that the range of value we might get from him is so immense. Royce Lewis – I would not be opposed ranking Lewis the most important. Superstar upside at a position that is begging for someone to step into. SWR or Louie Varland or both – These two guys stepping up in 2023 would be a huge boost to this team for 6-10 years. Having Ryan / Ober / SWR and Ryan under team control for the next 5-7 years would allow the team to spend big on one free agent SP instead of filling holes with the type of free agents we have seen for the last several years. Jorge Alcala – We have not got much out of him yet but he has the potential to be a reliable high leverage RP. He is under team control until 2026. Larnach or Wallner – One of these guys stepping up and producing at a higher level than Kepler has given us would be big. They would be above Alcala if considered separately but the fact there are two guys for one spot mitigates the importance the have individually. Josh Winder – Is he a ML pitcher or not? He looked very good in the minors and he looked good in his first handful of starts. Winder stepping up even in a BP role would be big for the next several years. Austin Martin – Would be a great contributor if he follows the path of Royce Lewis after a great AFL league performance. Matt Canterino – He has the stuff to be an impact pitcher. Will we get nothing or a great player. Canterino stepping up in 2023 would be big. Ryan Jeffers – Jeffers sure seems to have more potential and he is likely going to be here for several years in some capacity.

I definitely think you have pointed out a whole other aspect of "Cohen's madness" People with this pedigree don't just burns 10s of millions or 100s of millions of dollars. Now, part of what he is doing is no doubt a product of being a fan, but I have a very hard time believing this is not being done without consideration for the net monetary effect. If it were being done in a market without the upside you pointed out, I might believe it was mostly about being a fan. Not the case here.

Be prepared for a strike. I could be wrong but didn't the league propose a more aggressive tax. I know they proposed a lower threshold. There were still a lot of players that did not want to accept the deal they got which was far more than I thought would be offered. Keep in mind, the floor would have to be set so that the lowest revenue team could hit it. Is that going to have any impact beyond the bottom 4-5 teams? Will a floor serve fans. Remember when we were out of in previous years? Did we want a mediocre veteran get AB or IPs? No, we wanted players that could possibly be part of the solution. Then, those teams could load up on high end free agent RPs and trade them at the deadline or other such shenanigans. They could have made the current system work. The penalties needed to escalate faster and the threshold should have gone up more modestly. Instead of a floor, they could have done something like a penalty for not spending revenue sharing. Perhaps they could distribute 50 of the penalty to prearb players and the other 50% to the teams that spend the largest portion of their revenue sharing. Obviously, that's not easy to figure out but doable. None of it matters unless we are willing to go through a strike because they players are not having it.

I have been thinking about Cohen's approach for a while. I am not so sure he does not believe that he can lose a couple hundred million over the next 4-5 years and in the process build revenues to a level that increases the franchise vale by 3 or 4 times that amount. Your post illustrates why that is possible. Not to mention he can write off the operating losses and not realize the gains until he sells.

My guess is that there will be a contract provision that addresses time lost to the specific concern. In other words, Boras will say OK, if he loses time due to this specific problem, compensation is altered accordingly. He will attempt to keep the rest of the contract as close to the original agreement as possible.

I wouldn't trade "all your assets". I would trade them if and when a compelling offer was made. In some cases that could be right now and some might be at the deadline. They could have a young core to build around by the end of the year. I say could because they have to give them a chance and of course, they might have Cleveland's type of result with young players or they could all fall on their face. There is just so many waiting to be proven. (Lewis / Kirilloff / Lee / Larnach / Martin / Julien / SWR / Varland / Alcala / Moran / Megill / Sands. We could be looking great next year or we could be looking for answers. The trades you support would no doubt help the cause, especially if they can land ML ready talent like Cleveland did a couple years ago.

I think Cohen would never risk the tremendous positive vibe surrounding that team at the moment for Trevor Bauer.

No thanks but it will be really interesting to see what happens if the Dodgers cut him. Someone is going to sign him, right?

I doubt he is ready. Thus, the question mark. I could see them starting with Farmer but giving Martin a shot quickly if he does well to start the season. I would really like to see him step-up. Obviously, Martin stepping up would be great for the team, but he should be exciting to watch.

Good catch. I forgot about McCallister and Masterson. Of course, we all want them to draft/develop well too. My point is IDK that they did not develop Johan Santana or Joe Ryan. Would it have been more impressive or important if they had traded for a guy with the exact same ability that was 5 years out instead of a couple months? Oakland has been the master at getting MLB ready guys. Sign me up.

Austin Martin?

You make a good point about the roster spot. Garlick has an option left. Bringing in a free agent does not provide the flexibility of optioning them. Larnach in Left, Gallo in right, Buxton in center. The have Gordon to back up those spots and they can also give martin a shot because Garlick has 1 more option year. So, they are not taking a roster spot in the context you are pointing out.

Great post Doc. It's quite apparent the only concern for many fans is right now. A mid-market team trading away the future for a final piece is one thing but we are not remotely in that position. We are the anthesis of looking for final pieces. Even if we did trade for "final pieces" Gray / Maeda and Mahle are free agents next year and we are back to looking for pitching. Anyone else tired of that position? The only way this team succeeds beyond 2023 is if the young pitchers step up so let's give them that opportunity. If they get the opportunity to succeed, they have 5 low cost SPs next year. (Ryan / Ober / Varland / SWR and Paddack) Sounds like Cleveland with a payroll budget of an extra $20-30M to spend on final pieces once you figure out what those pieces need to be. Aaron Nola sounds pretty good at this moment. I guess you could say the same for young position players (Lewis / Lee / Kirilloff / Larnach / Wallner / Martin and Julien). Trading for short-term assets was a very bad decision last year. I sure hope they don't repeat that mistake. Who's place would Lopez take? Ober? How many wins is that worth? How is that a net gain over Arrez? Cleveland got Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez who had 6 WAR last year. They were both MLB ready when Cleveland got them. That's the kind of trade that impacts a franchise and not for a year or two but at least six years (as Mike pointed out) and that's the kind of player you extend. Instead of adding another good but unspectacular SP that does very little to change our trajectory, I would much rather see them trade Arraez for a prospect that can truly impact this franchise.

Apparently, people (not you) don't pay any attention to how other teams have built a pipeline. Cleveland traded for Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco / Trevor Bauer / Mike Clevinger and more recently Cal Quantrill / Emmanuel Clause and Konnoe Pilkington. Outside of Bieber, their best pitchers have been acquired as prospects via trade. The Marlins acquired Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen in the same trade from the Cardinals. They also acquired Lopez and Luzardo via trade. The fact is that we have the 10th best record in the league since this regime was hired. Not stellar but a very long way from the abomination some are making it out to be. We have 78 more wins than the Rangers / Nationals and 90 wins more than the Royals and 110 more than the Tigers over that period.

The basis of most of the positions here, perhaps not from you but in general, is that the Twins must sign elite free agents. We have mountains of data that very clearly illustrate the average production has been 8-10M per war. That number is not going down based on recent contracts. Therefore, getting "significantly better" would mean they would have to drastically outproduce the norm for free agents. So, I am curious to hear why we should expect to drastically outperform the market and it would take a drastic difference in production per dollar to get "significantly better". If they were to as you say "spend in smarter ways to keep $/WIN down", what would that entail? The only other way to spend another $40M would be signing team friendly extensions like Ramirez or multiple Polanco type players. I am all for it but that requires we have someone to extend. It is possible they could recoup their investment. The question my firm always assesses is what are the odds. Extending any number of players would have no impact in the next couple of years. So, what are the odds spending $40M on free agents would net a million fans and here is the real kicker, I must confess that I missed a step doing the math because the twins only get 48% of that revenue. They could not recoup that investment if they drew a capacity crowd every game.

If you don't want to buy the product ... Don't buy it but the owners of this site have the right to do whatever the hell they like with it. Do you send emails to the Athletic complaining all of their content isn't free?

We heard the "they are in 1st place" logic over and over. The fact is they were not close to being a serious contender given the number of injuries prior to the deadline. They had been below 500 for June and July. How does that make us a contender? They probably set the franchise back far more by trading all of those assets and not trading Correa than they did by not signing Correa. You can always spend the $315M elsewhere. They would have a boatload of prospects that would have been better spent in the off-season on longer terms assets.

I was a supporter of the Urshela / Donaldson trade when it was being criticized. That said, I see it the same way. However, I would add the possibility Kirilloff is back. Then there is nowhere to play Miranda for certain.