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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I understand your thinking on Rogers, I just don't understand why Miami would sell low on him when they have 4 and a half more years of control. Are there rumors they want to move him? Like I said, I don't disagree he could bounce back but why would they move him without getting a return that assumes he returns to ace status almost immediately?
  2. Major League Ready
    For the same reason mathematically eliminated teams don't forfeit every game. I mean really, your answer is that if a team does not have a reasonable chance of winning the WQS they should not bother playing? By your logic every team should be trading for proven players. There wouldn't be any sellers if that logic made sense and had the Twins followed that logic they would not have acquired Ryan / Duran / Celestino or Alcala.
  3. Major League Ready
    So, we should ignore the odds determined by oddsmakers because they are in 1st place? The Oddsmakers have given 7 teams that are not in first place better odds. Please enlighten us as to knowledge you posses that the people who make their living determining these odds fail to understand.
  4. Major League Ready
    That logic is fine for a fan. It would get any person in a leadership position followed. However, ignoring 400:1 odds because it has happened in the past would assure termination of the authority to make such decisions is terminated. The statement that perpetuated this was " Worrying about losing prospects in a possible trade could be part of what holds the franchise back." The Braves invested virtually nothing so using the Braves as an example is misguided. They went out and got a couple guys who were playing terrible and they played like MVPs. Those calling "go for it" would be very disappointed with level of investment. We would all love to invest nothing in players that perform like superstars, and have the rest of the team play phenomenally better after the deadline.
  5. Major League Ready
    Yes, they are a 1st place team ranked 15th in their of their odds of winning the WS. 14 other teams have better odds so the fact they are in 1st place so let's be realistic about if they have built a team or need to continue to build. Odds of winning the WS
  6. Major League Ready
    My belief about this year's team has no relevance to how playoff teams have been constructed among teams in the bottom half of revenue. The impact of trades for prospects vs trading prospects for established players is a product of historical fact. There is no doubt free agency and trading for established players has a place in the construction of playoff teams. However, if you look at the relative roles of acquisition methods, there is no doubt that trading for prospects has a far larger role in success compared to trading for established players. What logic could possibly support that the twins have "caught lighting in a bottle this year"? How can there be thread after thread insisting we have no chance unless we add a #1 SP, we need at least a couple RPs and another bat if we have caught lightening in a bottle?
  7. Major League Ready
    Oakland would have zero interest in any of these players. Oakland / Beane has followed a practice of trading players wit 1 to 1.5 years of control for near MLB ready or players that have some MLB experience like Kirilloff / Ryan / Duran / Ober / Celestino. Tampa and Cleveland have also been good at executing this strategy which has made them far more successful than other teams in the bottom half revenue. Urshela and one of Bundy / Archer are the most likely to be traded as I see it. If Lewis was pounding on the door, trading Correa would plausible. I don't see it unless we collapse.
  8. Major League Ready
    Actually, if you were to review how playoff teams have been built by teams with below average revenue, you would see that trading proven players for prospects has been waaaay more influential than trading prospects for proven players in building these teams. It's very easy to do. Pick a team from the past in the bottom half or two-thirds by revenue that has won 90+ games. Look at the top contributors by WAR. I use greater than 1.5 for position players and SPs and greater than 1 for RPs. You will be shocked at how little trading for established players has contributed and how important trading for prospects has been. The only team I have found with any real influence from trades is Milwaukee. Their primary contributions from position players have been significantly influenced by trades. Their pitching is all draft or trading for prospects. Of course, their offense is very weal and their pitching extremely strong. Anyone who is actually interested in how successful teams have been built should go through this exercise.
  9. Major League Ready
    The last thing they should do is trade away promising young position players for a #3 SP. They already have great SP depth and more on the way over the next couple years so I just don't see much value in a #3 to this team. Another top of the rotation guy is another matter especially in the playoffs.
  10. Major League Ready
    Thanks. Asleep at the wheel, I guess.
  11. Major League Ready
    The last three are not very likely which of course is why they are last on the list. However, I seem them as possible under the right circumstances. For example, if Kirilloff really rakes the remainder of this season, the impact of letting go one of Polanco or Arraez could be less than the impact gained given the right trade. I guess I should have also had Miranda or Steer as one of the options but I was going for a top 10 list. I think the concepts Lavine learned in Cleveland will have some influence. If you look at their top 13 players in terms of WAR, 4 were drafted and Ramirez was an Intl signing. 8 were acquired by trading establish players for prospects and quite a few had made it to the MLB but were not yet established. Trading one of Polanco or Arraez would be consistent with that practice.
  12. Major League Ready
    Have to agree the Brooks Robinson comparison is waaaay out there. Even among current players there are several as good or better. Matt Olson and Nolan Arenado are significantly better.
  13. Major League Ready
    I too seriously doubt Urshela is here next year and Miranda has a very low probability of being traded. One of Miranda or Steer will be the regular 3B and one will be on the bench. Here is how I would rank the top 10 most likely not to be here next year. 1 Dylan Bundy 2 Miguel Sano 3 Carlos Correa 4 Gio Urshela 5 Chris Archer 6 Gary Sanchez 7 Kyle Garlick 8 Kenta Maeda 9 Emilio Pagen 10 Polanco or Arraez Obviously, Sanchez is a FA but I could see them resigning him and Archer has a mutual option. Bundy has a team option but my bet is he is traded at the deadline.
  14. Major League Ready
    My wish would be one B+/A- BP arm and having Canterino explode onto the scene 6 weeks from now looking as dominant as Duran. As long as I am wishing and hoping, let's hope Maeda contributes come October as well.
  15. Major League Ready
    Moving Kepler and putting Kirilloff in the OF could be the most productive alignment of this roster. Arraez at 1B / DH maximizes his value. Garlick would replace one of Larnach / Kirilloff against LH pitching where they become a bench bat for later in the game. The bench is Garlick / Miranda or Steer plus Celestino and Gordon. This assumes Urshela is traded or non-tendered and either Miranda or Steer is the everyday 3B.
  16. Major League Ready
    Let's hope he can spend the 1st three weeks of September in St. Paul and the last 2 weeks of the season with the Twins. That would at least give him a shot at contributing but it's not something that should be counted on. BTW ... I hope Danchat's prediction comes true. Duran / Canterino can be a shut-down duo for the next several years.
  17. Major League Ready
    I agree. A front of the rotation SP will require a front of the rotation prospect going back plus Miranda. Winder and Miranda is probably the rough equivalent to SWR / Martin in the Berrios trade which is a very good comp. Trading away 6+ years of players like this to up or chances of going deep in the playoffs from very slim to slim is incredibly foolish. It's a good way to never be a team with better than a slim chance. Trade for a good RP and keep our top prospects.
  18. Major League Ready
    That would be something if Sisk turned out to be a high-leverage RP. We deserve a reward for the JA Happ experience.
  19. Major League Ready
    I agree with all of this but might be more inclined to send Miranda down if we were to bring up Kirilloff. They have Kirilloff/Arraez for 1B plus Sanchez if needed. Urshella/Arraez for 3B and Polanco/Arraez/Gordon for 2B. seems like Miranda would be the most expendable in this scenario. Garlick's bat against LH pitching is a real asset. Kirolloff's defense is better at 1B and I am not sure we really lose anything defensively at 1B with Arraez vs Miranda. Obviously, we lose defensively with Miranda at 3B instead of Urshela.
  20. Major League Ready
    Are you suggesting we consider the measures produced by an unbiased organization who's product is analysis of these exact scenarios? Let's not get carried away. Wouldn't it be a lot more gratifying to ignore these facts if we want to believe framing does not matter? ?
  21. Major League Ready
    I am just really happy to see Kirilloff hitting and not just hitting but making a mockery of AAA pitching. He can be a key player for this team for next several years and I was worried about his future so it's a relief to see him thriving. He will be back soon. They will probably have to decide between sending Miranda or Larnach down or I would think they could find a trade partner for Gordon.
  22. Major League Ready
    Seems like a very plausible scenario because it's not hard to see them moving Bundy once the others are healthy. Plus, piggy-backing two guys that you don't want pitching a bunch of innings is a pretty good solution. It was JA Happ that they sent to St. Louis and wouldn't it be something if Evan Sisk turned out to be useful BP piece for several years. That would be quite a trade and a similar outcome from trading Bundy would be just great.
  23. Major League Ready
    They can't just add him without sending out a player. Someone needs to go. They have a very nice problem ... Too many starting caliber infielders without considering that Steer is close. They will need to trade someone eventually but that takes time to come together. In the meanwhile, AAA gets used as an extended bench to cover injuries.
  24. Major League Ready
    Who does he replace? Arraez / Miranda at 1B, Kepler in RF or Larnach in LF? What's the gain?
  25. Major League Ready
    What position are you going to move him to? We have two 3B prospects (Miranda / Steer) with equivalent offensive potential and CES fits at 3B as well if he is able to cut down the errors. We have all kinds of 2B. Moving him to the OF diminishes the value of his bat. Plus Larnach has been better than we hoped for defensively. So, where would you suggest they play him? Do you trade Kepler, play Larnach is right and Lewis in LF?
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