Major League Ready

I am not sure how you define "Ace" but $20M does not buy what I would call an Ace. Verlander and Degrom are going to get double that number. Rodon will probably be closer to $30 than $20M even with the injury concerns. As to why, Hanigar is a different profile than our other OFers. Signing him also frees up Kepler to be traded and the net effect of such a swap would be we add more talent. However, you are correct, there are lots of places they could spend their free agent budget.

I agree completely. That's why I was thinking Snatching up Hanigar in what is a weak corner OF market would put the Twins in a good position. Eating a little salary could put them in a good position to work out a trade with Miami for pitching. They could get something decent for Kepler even if a deal could not be made with Miami.

I had him in my plan which assumed Kepler would be traded. Hanigar will be a modest number of years and there is a lot of upside if he can remain healthy. Of course, predicting health for a player like this requires a crystal ball. The potential to get something decent by dealing Kepler makes this swap even more enticing. Of course, trading established players usually means trading prospects. Do we have something to go with Kepler that would work for trading for pitching with Miami? Perhaps Kepler and Polanco or Arraez?

Yep or they could add an $8-10M RP and be at the same number.

Why? What exactly was the cost of trading him. He was bad. So was Pagan and Paddack is hurt so I would be more inclined to say they traded him for the wrong players but how is trading a player that performed poorly a mistake?

Have to agree in the hierarchy of needs, Another LH corner OFer is at the bottom of the list. The more this off-season goes on the more I hope for Rodon or Senga. Add one power arm to the BP with Duran / Lopez / Alcala and you have a good pitching staff. Varland and SWR can be transitioned over the course of 2023 and we won't be in bad shape if Gray / Mahle both leave. They are likely to be quite good for several years in this scenario. That said ... if they can get value for Kepler and then bring in Gallo, that would give us depth in the OF / DH and it is possible he could rebound offensively.

Impressive. You have considered the risk profile and sustainability of the options which is what I would hope any front office would do. It's not hard at all to put together a plan that maximizes the immediate term. It's also quite easy to go down a path that results in several years of futility. Baseball executives talk about this balance fairly often when interviewed. Many fans put by far more emphasis on the immediate term. They are not going to sign both Correa and Rodon because of what you have pointed out. Their odds of getting either one of them is extremely low. However, I hope they go hard after Rodon. Absolutely agree they could recover from Rodon not working out. It would obviously hurt but there is a path to putting a good team on the field even if he did not perform or was hurt.

There are a couple others that could be taken off. Contreras, perhaps even Garlick for position players. Would anyone take Enlow in rule 5 at this point. They could cut Pagan loose as well. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Do you really think the manager is concerned about a RPs save total? It has nothing to do with being or not being a save situation. They want to retain availability.

Those buyouts are paid in 2022 right. If so, the IRS says they should be recognized as part of 2022 from a legal perspective. How the Twins recognize these costs in terms of setting the 2023 budget IDK. Hopefully what's done is done but previous year financial performance generally has some influence on the following year budget in other companies / industries. What lies ahead has influence as well. They have Gray / Mahle / Urshela & Maeda coming off for sure. I could also see Kepler and/or Polanco being traded. They are in a good position to invest.

Odd logic. The manager puts their best RPs in the 9th. Yet, the owners are stupid? Were the owners making that decision or was the manager? Of course, more recently the FO and analytics department are influencing the decision. You are describing different ways to use the same guy and somehow the owners are stupid for paying that guy.

I am thinking we trade him if we land Rodon because I don't know what we can count on the year after TJ. I don't think it makes sense in this scenario to put Ryan or Ober in the BP. We also have Varland / SWR and Paddack for depth. Sands could start too if we were hit hard by injuries.

After all the discussion, I took another shot. Add Carlos Rodon / Danby Swanson / Navarez and $8.5M budget for a BP arm. $6M over budget. If JP has a problem with the overage, I would pitch looking to trade one or both Kepler / Polanco mid-season which gets us closer to budget. Either one could also be traded during the winter but the safer route would be to not rely on the rookies right out of spring training. We also have $30M coming off next year. We can borrow so to speak from 2024 with Varland / SWR / Martin and Julien all on the brink. *** Sano's buyout is not included in the budget and probably should be. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Danby Swnason ($21.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Larnach or Wallner ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Navarez ($7.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Carlos Rodon ($26.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.70M) RP: Moran ($0.70M) RP: Budget ($8.5M) Payroll is 0.99% over budget

I didn't mean to suggest they were exactly the same. I agree he won't hit for the same average but his OBP could be even higher and he should hit for quite a bit more power. So, could he equal or even greater offensive impact. IDK and I wouldn't bet on it but it's an intriguing possibility.

How about Lewis / Rodon and $10M on a BP arm vs Correa? Which option produces more WAR?

Close enough but what you have left out the most important difference in our positions. We have a boat load of evidence as to which strategies have been successful for other teams. I have studied all of the successful teams with relatively the same or less revenue and that examination leaves little doubt as to which strategies have been successful. I have offered those examples and described how anyone can check this out for themselves. Chief and others refuse to evaluate the evidence and insist we should follow a different strategy. Those strategies have far / far less history of success, but some here insist we should follow bad strategy because we have not effectively executed what have proven to be best practices. I am saying get better at practices that have been proven most effective instead of following strategy we know to be less effective. In the real world, the latter gets you removed from a leadership position in a hurry. Now, if anyone wants to actually offer tangible proof / examples where drafting and trading for unproven players / prospects were not the driving force of success, I am wide open to re-evaluating which strategies are most successful.

That would be great. Let's add Varland and SWR pitching effectively by that time as well. BTW ... Julien was OB 4 out of 5 ABs last night. He could be Arraez with more power and better base running. Obviously, the AFL is not MLB but we can dream, can't we?

Actually, I don't think there has been anyone more vocal about the benefits of building this type of flexibility. Last year when people were having a fit about moving Berrios I said future success was all about building a staff from within because of what it would allow in free agency. The difference is that I would use that money on the best pitching possible. Don't tell me they refuse to invest in pitching. That could and should change if as you say we are in unique position which is exactly what I have been saying for a year. I submitted my plan and it was $135M and the 25% assumes a $140M payroll. My posts at the time show I was OK with them signing Donaldson. I was even more in favor in the deal to move him when others had a fit that we got worse at 3B. What did we hear.

You quote me asking for examples and then come back with the same rhetoric. If you have point, there would be plenty of examples. The capacity to just ignore anything that seriously challenges a position goes with fanaticism. I get this but when the question is asked repeatedly you would think a few people would stop to ask why other teams in similar positions don't sign these elite players. What do you know that all of the GMs of similar teams don't know.

You ignored how all of the winners were built. This particular failure you are focused on is absolutely irrelevant unless you are trying to figure out how to not get to the WS for 30 years. I am sure you think there is great wisdom in your position but you are demonstrating why some fans (of all organizations) are dismayed by FO decisions. You think not getting to the WS for 30 years is relevant to strategic decisions.

Show me an example of a team that went to the world series while paying 25% to one player which is what Correa at $35M of a $140M budget. You also refuse to acknowledge that Harper / Betts / Freeman / Goldsmidt / Arenado and Springer all play for teams that could pay 2 players Correa's salary and have the Twins budget left over. You also apparently don't understand that the lower revenue necessitates higher productivity per dollar spent. This is not a theory. It's a mathematical certainty. In other words, it's not a quantity of quality thing. Forget about what I think. Do you know something all the other GMs of average revenue (or below) teams don't know because they don't sign these players. You are able to find plenty of meaningless comparisons like teams with significant incremental revenue. No kidding a team with an extra 75 or 150M can sign high AAV free agents that the twins don't sign. Yet, somehow the fact these players are not signed by below average revenue teams escapes you.

No doubt they have the capacity. The question is the relative effectiveness of spending such a high percentage on one player? I am sure you have seen/heard or read this discussion in various form of media. The common wisdom is that it is not. Do you think Houston is poorly run? They could pay Correa twice with their incremental revenue and they let him go?

I knew you would not actually address the issue. If the Twins were the only below average revenue team in MLB you would have a point. Obviously, the point is how teams have been successful NOT how they have failed. The facts are very clear that successful average revenue teams have been a product of drafting players and trading for prospects. The reality is obvious if one is in the least bit willing to educate themselves on past winners. Your refusal to address my position with facts would be understandable if they were not so easy to validate. You damn well know you are ignoring the facts and if you could disprove my point you would have done so. Instead your response is a smart ass answer. We can all ignore facts when they absolutely obliviate our positions if we are willing to remain uniformed.

You are ignoring history which very clearly illustrates the stars aligning in our farm system is by far the most important element to any average or below average revenue team building a dominant team. I am including trading established players for prospects or players that have minimal major league experience in "the starts aligning" in our farm system as trading for prospects has been far more impactful than free agents or trading for established players among these teams. This is how average and below average revenue teams have been successful. Believe what you want to believe but you are ignoring the facts. We had Correa and we were under 500. Texas signed Seager and Semien and they were under 500. LA has Ohtani and Traut and they are under 500. They won 68 and 73 games respectively. What matters and what we should be concerned about are decisions like drafting Cavaco instead of Corbin or Stott. Don't agree. Great but show examples of winning teams in these markets that back-up your opinion.

Yes, their roster situations were better but that's not the primary difference between the teams that signed these players. With the exception of Machado, these teams all have significantly more revenue. The fact that these teams could all sign at least two of these contracts and still have the Twins budget left over is a far more significant difference. Let's also recognize that SanDiego has one 90 win season since the turn of the century and that was exactly 90 in 2010. Not exactly a franchise that has such great success that we should follow their practices.