Richie the Rally Goat

Hello Guys!
C-Gangster Here!
Welcome to the all new fan immersive game thread designed by me for us! It has been an absolute honor to create the game threads here for the past year but now i want to make it about you so introducing the all new fan immersive game thread format with ice breakers and other fun stuff! You can respond to them or don't! It's just a way to make the conversations/experience more fun for you guys! READ IMPORTANT NOTE AT END!
Note: One will be posted around 7-8 am each morning in the event i cannot I apologize but a Moderator/site administrator like @Brock Beauchamp or one of the amazing moderators Will sub in that day! So I thank them for they're help!
Note (2): 
Without Further Ado here's the new game thread format!
Title: Twins (Pitcher) @/vs Opponent (Pitcher): Date, Time CDT
Joke/Something about the previous game and the days game!
Fan of yesterdays game! (Most Posts), (Funniest Posts) (Best Posts)
Picture of the game- A custom made picture representing the previous/days game.
Most accurate fan- (Fan Accuracy)
Best idea fan- (Best ideas for todays game)
Roll Call: Anyone Watching Somewhere other then home?
Walk UP Song of the game!- Song name artist, Link
Food Check- What are you guys eating during the game!
The Homer Hanky Keys
3 Bullet points about the keys for the game!
The C-Gangster Keys of the game! 
4 Keys in my take
Swing and a miss or moonshot
Predictions
Score 
Question of the day?
The Daily Double
What are you're odds of this happening?
Freeze Take of the day!
What's you're most crazy unrealistic or realistic prediction
Gritty Player Watch
Question about player 
The Shelty Watch
Over/Under For a certain question
Bullpen Sweat Watch
Green- The game is low stress 
Yellow- The twins have been doing moderately mediocre could go either way
Red- High stress game
 
Baseball IQ Check
Trivia Question
Momentum Meter
 
Green- Yeah were winning!
Yellow- Game is very close
Red-  Oh no! Were doomed 
Other colors will be added for different situations for example: postseason
Will be updated throughout the game!
Panic Button
When do we start stressing?
Clutch me the call!
Who do you trust with the game on the line?
Chaos Play Call
Predict something weird
Provous/Gladden quote of the day
Best Quote/Call from yesterday
The Medical Suite
Opponent- IL
Twins- IL
Game Goal-
Goal Of the Game
Post game Posts
Maneger Descision Grade 
(Rate A-F)
The Victory Cigar 
Player of the game
Rewrite the script
What game deciding moment if changed Would've turned the game around!
Quick Thoughts/Wrap Up
Plus a bonus every game Plus a more bonus ones for high pressure must win important games 
Note (2): Please PM Or tag me in posts for suggestgions for Example: Walk up song
Note (3): Please be supportive of eachother throughout the thread I know the twins can be stressfull but it's our TD friends and family that make the twins worth watching!
Note (4): Remember this is the community's game thread so please comment or tag me or PM me even with any tweaks/adjustments you may want! \
Thankyou all so much!
Cant wait to share these new game threads with you!
 
 
 

The Minnesota Twins come into their weekend series as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning eleven straight games in a row; the Twins haven't seen much movement up in the Central Division standings due to the Tigers, Guardians, and Royals playing great baseball as well.
The Twins, however, have climbed into one of the three wild-card spots, with a 0.5-game lead on the Texas Rangers. The Twins have done everything during this winning streak and received contributions from the whole lineup. Byron Buxton continues to hit; he was in a little 0-12 funk before hitting his 10th home run of the year against Baltimore; he even added three walks in that series as well. He now maintains a respectable slash line of .261/.312/.522.
Brooks Lee had a couple of home runs, including a well-timed home run against Baltimore on Wednesday that started a four-run 4th inning. He has come up with some clutch hits but made a few mistakes at second base, resulting in his first three errors in the field. His flexibility to play 2B, 3B, and sometimes SS will help the Twins with their rotations. Trevor Larnach has found his swing over his last seven games, batting .322 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Trevor has struggled to find permanent playing time with the Twins in his 5th year; he has been set back by inconsistent batting and injuries. Larnach has averaged 75 games played in four seasons from 2021 to 2024. So far this year, he has played 43 out of 44 games. Larnach is finally healthy this year, and with a logjam in the outfield between the Twins and their Minor Leagues, it will be interesting to see what the Twins' plans are for Larnach. Larnach commands a team-friendly contract of $2.1 million this year; he would be eligible for arbitration after this season.
 
 
The Twins got a few surprises from their complementary players, including Kody Clemens, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and Christian Vazquez. These three don't wow you with their high batting averages and big homerun totals, but they add another element for the Twins that most teams don't have. Clemens had two home runs in this 11-game stretch; one was to break a tie against Boston, and the other one resulted in a game-winner against Baltimore. Clemens is still battling to get his average over .200, but it has been climbing; he also plays 1B, 2B, LF, and RF, something the Twins need, especially with the recent injury news; in yesterday's game, Clemens played three different positions in one game before going back to second base for a fourth position switch. Keirsey Jr is another one who isn't hitting well but has provided some meaningful at-bats during this run. He had a game-winning hit against the Giants in extra innings and added two insurance runs with a home run against Baltimore in yesterday's game. I don't know what the future provides for Keirsey, considering the outfield depth the Twins have; Keirsey Jr also provides excellent speed for the Twins in certain situational times, but with injuries to Buxton and Bader, he could stay a little longer or bring up a hot hitting Carson McCusker, Austin Martin, or they could call up their #2 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez if they deem he's ready. Also, a rare Christian Vazquez go-ahead three-run homer gave the Twins the 6-3 win against Baltimore. Vazquez doesn't provide much hitting for the Twins, but he does give the Twins a good veteran backup catcher. He can help Ryan Jeffers and the Twins pitchers with a solid game plan.
The pitching staff has continued to dominate this season, outside of Simeon Woods Richardson, who was optioned to Triple-A yesterday for Zebby Mathews. Mathews will start Sunday in Milwaukee.
Over these 11 games, the Twins starters have a 3.27 ERA, 55 K, 14 BB, and .902 WHIP, and they only gave up 23 ER over 63.2 innings; 8 of those runs were by SWR. Joe Ryan is in the top 20 in ERA (2.74), K's (54), and 3rd in the MLB in Whip (0.83). Pablo Lopez would also be up there, but he missed three starts due to a hamstring injury.
Chris Paddack has had the most significant turnaround. He has a 2.06 ERA over his last 39.1 innings. He gave up nine earned runs in his first season start; since then, he's given up 12 runs in 8 starts.

The bullpen has been dominant all season long as Griffin Jax has battled back after a slow start. Jax has only given up 2 ER in his last 12 appearances. His 30:8 K/BB ratio is a good formula for getting hitters out. Jorge Alcala has looked good when he throws strikes, but has battled control issues so far this season and throughout his career. He has the pitches to be effective, but you don't know what you will get. The Twins have been able to mix and match different pitchers; the combination of Danny Coulombe, Cole Sands, and Jhoan Duran has seen hitters almost unhittable. Through 54.2 innings, these three have allowed 34 H and 7 ER, with an incredible 56:17 K/BB ratio. You can also mix Justin Topa, Louie Varland, and Brock Stewart; they all are strike throwers, and Stewart has a very live fastball, topping out at 96 MPH with good movement. Duran has converted all eight saves and is one of the best closers in the game right now. The Twins' pitching staff is now in the top 10 in six major categories. 5th in ERA, 9th in Hits, 5th in ER, 7th in K, 1st in BB, and 3rd in K. The Twins, all of a sudden, have one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB while also making a change in their rotation because of Woods-Richardson's ineffectiveness. With the hitting much better as of late and the pitching as dominant as it's been, who knows how long this streak can go, 12 games? 15 games?, 20?
 
The Twins head to Milwaukee for rivalry weekend.
A weekend series in Milwaukee is always something a Twins fan looks for on the schedule. Going on baseball trips as a kid with my dad, we would always take the nice 4 1/2 hour drive to Milwaukee to watch the Twins play the Brewers; as we get older, we look for the weekend series for specific reasons: beer, the not having to take off numerous days of work and oh yeah, beer. American Family Field, formerly Miller Park, is a great place to watch baseball, knowing that the game will almost certainly be played, as they have a retractable roof, and people who don't like flying can jump in their car and take a nice weekend vacation.
 
The Twins will put out their top two starters, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, on Friday and Saturday, and making his 2025 debut will be Zebby Mathews, who will pitch on Sunday. He was inserted after the Twins demoted the struggling Simeon Woods-Richardson to Triple-A. Mathews has been good in his seven starts at Triple-A, going 2-1 with a 1.93 ERA. Mathews can hold on to that #5 starter spot if he can throw strikes, mix in his cutter and changeup effectively, and execute his two-strike approach.  
The Brewers will send out Chad Patrick, who's making his ninth start of the year. Patrick is 2-3 with a 3.19 ERA. Patrick isn't a big strikeout pitcher, but he has minimized the big innings.
The 17-year veteran Jose Quintana was supposed to start Saturday's game but was put on the IL Wednesday with a right shoulder impingement. Quintana is the seventh Milwaukee starter on the shelf, prompting the team to acquire Quinn Priester from the Red Sox. Tobias Myers was recalled from Triple-A and will likely get this start.
The Brewers will start RHP Freddy Peralta. Peralta has always been a good pitcher and is also off to a fast start this year. He is 4-3 with a 2.66 ERA on the year. He pitched a six-inning, two-hit shutout against the Twins at Target Field last year. The Brewers are 21-23 in the National League Central and trail the Chicago Cubs by four games for first place.
The Twins will look to win their 12th game in a row and try to make it five straight series wins in Milwaukee starting tonight. Considering all our injuries in the Baltimore series, it will be a very different lineup card tonight. Buxton and Correa collided in the outfield when it appeared Buxton hit his head into the back of Correa's head; both of them are in the MLB concussion protocol.
Bader is still experiencing groin soreness; Bader left in the 3rd inning vs. Baltimore and didn't play in the second game of the doubleheader or yesterday's game. Ty France left the same game after fouling a pitch off his foot; he didn't play in the second game against Baltimore but was forced to come in yesterday's game when Buxton and Correa left with injuries. France was 0-2 with a strikeout. No move has been made yet, and there is no injury news as of right now.

Joe Ryan came into the 2025 season with something to prove after his injury-shortened season last year. Ryan made 23 starts in 2024, going 7-7 with an ERA of 3.60 before cutting his season short with a right shoulder strain. He has been one of the most important pitchers in the rotation since making his debut in 2021. 
In the 2025 season, Ryan had been nothing short of dominant. Ryan has a nice five-pitch repertoire, which he features the four-seam fastball and sweeper 73% of the time. His fastball has averaged 93 MPH with 18 inches of movement. These two figures have allowed Joe to be at the top of the league in run value (6). The hitters haven't figured out how to successfully hit his fastball as he's holding batters to a .189 BA when throwing it. 
Ryan has always had a great fastball in getting hitters out and causing them to make weak contact. He's on pace to have a better run value than last year, when he finished in the top 5% when throwing his 4-seam fastball.
This year, he has tweaked his sweeper by adding more vertical drop from 39.2 inches to 43.6. Joe has also increased his spin rate on the sweeper to 68%, resulting in a 41.3 Whiff%. He's also relying on his sweeper to put away hitters; Increased Whiff% on both pitches has been an enormous strength. It also allows him to mix in his great fastball when needed.
 
 
Ryan is technically the #2 pitcher on the Twins' starting staff, but he deserves to be #1, not just on the Twins but on many other teams needing starting pitching. Not many teams have a #2 starter putting up numbers like Joe has through his first seven starts
Ryan's consistently throwing strikes and reliance on compelling secondary pitches help him gain an advantage over hitters. He has put up some more elite numbers across the league in his first seven starts despite having the seventh-worst run support in all of baseball (2.29).
 
Although Ryan threw some shade at the Twins hitters a few starts ago by saying he would like more time between innings. "It would be nice to have a little bit more time between innings," he said via the Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale. “I turned around and got my water bottle, and I was running back out there real quick. Like a minute or two would be nice.   The run support hasn't bothered the way he throws or his overall game plan when out on the mound. He still comes out hitting his spots, mixing in pitches, and throwing strikes, though it's frustrating not getting wins after throwing some of the gems he has this year.
 
Ryan also ranks top 25 in ERA (2.93), top 15 in K's (47), top 10 in K/9 (10.6), tied 8th in WAR (1.2), 6th in WHIP (0.90), and amazingly top 5 in BB% (3.2).

These numbers suggest ace status; one thinks he will only get better at 28. Ryan has looked like he can pitch with the other aces in the league. He is 2-2 this year with a 2.93 ERA over 40 innings. There's also the question of whether management will look to trade Ryan? With the Twins not playing like a playoff team, and the owners not looking to improve much or wanting to compete, that has to be in the minds of us Twins fans. You would think they would want to hold on to Joe Ryan since he has come up through the organization from day one and has developed into a great pitcher. You never know what the Pohlads will do.
 
His next start will be against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday at Target Field, where he's only given up five runs in his three starts at home. Ryan will look to keep his strong start going against an Orioles team that ranks near the bottom in batting average, hits, and runs.

What makes a great baseball movie? Star power never hurts. A team of kids that rallies around a common cause? Sure. We've loved that before, right? Solid on-field play? Definitely a plus. Based on a true story? I'll be honest, I've never cared too much about that part, but it can lend a bit of weight to a story. Think "Moneyball" or "Eight Men Out." But, even if you put all of that together, it's not a magic recipe for a great baseball movie. The 2024 Netflix release "You Gotta Believe" has all of these things, yet it still doesn't make us jump up from our seat cheering for the home team.

The plot for "You Gotta Believe" is pretty standard After School Movie Special type stuff. Greg Kinnear plays, Jon Kelly, a lawyer who's also a very disengaged coach of a dreadful Little League team. Luke Wilson plays the more passionate nice-guy assistant coach, Bobby Ratliff. Once the team's season is done, Jon is asked to coach the team in the Little League World Series tourney. Even though they're a hopeless team, the league needs to field a team to keep their sponsorships. At first, Coach Kelly scoffs at the idea, but when Coach Ratliff is diagnosed with terminal cancer, he's flip flops to give Coach Ratliff a reason to get out of bed each day. Surprise, surprise...they start to redefine their individual roles on the team, playing to their personal strengths and start to do pretty well. 
The actual baseball in the movie is pretty solid for a young group. Some of the concepts are a bit unrealistic. One kid can't catch because he's afraid of the ball. What do they do? Move him from first base to catcher, where he feels protected by all the gear. Really? Really. One kid starts to hit better when he takes his glasses off. I didn't get that one at all. When the team starts to do well in the tourney, the fast-paced baseball action looks very good if you can get past the bizarre editing. More on that in a bit. 
The acting is fine, but very lackluster. I like both Luke Wilson and Greg Kinnear, and they were okay, but there really wasn't any room to spread their wings here. The team itself was pretty dull, but that's not the actors' fault either. The kids just didn't have real interesting characters like those we love in The Sandlot. On a fun note, we get a surprise visit from a Sandlot favorite as Patrick Renna (we know him as catcher Ham Porter) plays the league president that has to beg Coach Kelly to take the team to the tourney. It's always fun to see that guy pop up. 
Okay. There is one scene in this movie that stands out, but for me at least, not in a good way. As the team starts to win in the tourney, it becomes a song montage, which is pretty common. However, the song they chose is "Rawhide." Not only that, as the screen flips and twitches to fast edited baseball play, you see players and coaches mouthing the words to the song and making the whip action with their hands. My honest reaction was, WTF? What is happening. It is so odd. Some might love it, but I thought it felt really out of place in this movie and just weird overall. 
Overall, "You Gotta Believe," takes a pretty remarkable true story and makes it mostly generic with a touch of absurd. It's watchable, but also pretty forgettable. If you like "feel-good" movies, this could be your jam. Put it on when you have some light work to do and check it off your list. (We all keep baseball movie lists, right?) It's a made-for-Netflix movie, so that's where you can find it. 
Grab your popcorn and play ball!
Run Time: 1 hr 44 min
Scorecard: Single up the middle.
Best line: Coach: "Welcome to Williamsport, boys!" 
                 Player: "Are you sure those are boys? That guy has a mustache?"  (We all played against that kid as Little Leaguers, didn't we?)

The Twins reinstated Brock Stewart from the injured list on Saturday. Stewart has been on the injured list all season due to a left hamstring strain he suffered in spring training. He made two appearances in Single A, throwing 1.2 innings while striking out all five batters. He will replace left-hander Kody Funderburk, who was optioned to Triple-A. Funderburk appeared in two games this year, throwing 4.0 innings with a 4.50 ERA.
Stewart only pitched in 16 games last year, mostly due to right shoulder tendinitis. The Twins are hopeful that, now fully healthy and ready, he can return to his 2023 performance, during which he struck out 39 batters in 27.2 innings and had a 0.65 WHIP. That season, Stewart also topped many statistical pitching categories. His fastball averaged around 97 MPH, Whiff% 41.5, K% 35.8, Barrel% 3.4, and Hard-Hit% 31.0. Those are all great stats when you compare relievers, but that was 2023 when he was healthy. Fast forward two years, and now completely healthy, it will be interesting to see how fast he can bounce back.
With a hefty 11.25 ERA and having blown the Twins' last two leads, struggling reliever Griffin Jax will also benefit from his reinstatement. By taking on some high-leverage situations, Stewart could give struggling Jax a breather, with the ultimate goal of Jax returning to his 2024 level. Will Rocco throw him out there right away? That remains to be seen.
Michael Tonkin, back for his third stint with the Twins, has been sidelined all year with a right shoulder strain. He will begin a rehab stint Friday with Triple-A St. Paul Saints. Assuming that goes well and there are no setbacks, I see him back sometime at the end of April. Who will be the odd man out in the bullpen is the bigger question?
Pablo Lopez, who has been out since April 8 due to a strained right hamstring, will make a rehab start on Saturday for Triple-A St. Paul. Assuming no setbacks, Lopez will probably only need one start. Look for him to rejoin the Twins rotation around Wednesday, as that is when he is eligible to return from the IL.
Royce Lewis is probably the farthest away, although reports say he is making some progress. He has been running and doing baseball activities, including hitting, for a while now, but he was scheduled to advance his running progression Thursday with some light baserunning work. Although his return to game action is still weeks away, rather than days, he continues to progress in his recovery from a strained left hamstring.
 With Matt Wallner recently hitting the IL due to a strained hamstring, there's no new information regarding him, Austin Martin, or Jose Miranda. This comes at a bad time for Wallner, as he was one of the Twins' most consistent hitters and an on-base threat. His slash lines look like this: .263 average, .373/.474/..847.  Miranda will likely return in the middle of next week when his stint is over.  Despite his struggles this year, Miranda would provide much-needed depth for the Twins. He was injured while shopping at Target when he dropped a pack of water and strained his left hand trying to re-grab it, yes, that's no joke, Twins fans. He could add some depth if Correa and Castro continue to nurse injuries.
Willi Castro (oblique) and Christian Vazquez (hand) remain day-to-day due to injuries. The Twins will also continue to monitor Carlos Correa, who sustained a wrist injury earlier this week but has played in subsequent games.

The recent series against their opponents, the Minnesota Twins, was marked by a challenging time in generating runs. Over the course of three games, the team only managed to score a total of 2 runs, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among both the team members and Manager Rocco Baldelli. The lackluster offensive performance left many fans and analysts questioning the team's capabilities and strategies. Following the series, Manager Rocco Baldelli issued a succinct statement conveying his disappointment with the team's performance before abruptly leaving the press conference, leaving no room for questions. He was openly critical, remarking, "That was an unprofessional series of baseball that was just played, and that's all I'm going to say about it." Baldelli's abrupt exit and terse comments only added to the air of tension surrounding the team. In addition to the manager's dissatisfaction, player Royce Lewis voiced his discontent regarding the decision to assign him to play second base. He expressed his frustration, emphasizing, "We have plenty of really good second basemen, and I don’t want to mess up our defense just because we’re going to try something new. It’s not spring training or Triple-A for that. I think we proved I’m an athlete. Now, let’s just keep playing normal baseball, play third, and win baseball games." These statements shed light on the internal discord and turmoil within the team, signaling the urgent need for the Twins to address both their offensive struggles and the internal conflicts. It's clear that the team is facing challenges not only on the field but also within the dynamics of the team itself. As the Twins strive to improve their performance in the upcoming games, it's evident that the team must work on resolving these issues to achieve a more cohesive and productive team dynamic. The team's recent batting average of .197 and a win percentage of .400 in their last 10 games have left the organization, fans, and players frustrated and concerned. It's imperative for the Twins to regroup, address these internal conflicts, and focus on improving their on-field performance to regain confidence and momentum. It will be crucial for the coaching staff and team management to facilitate open and constructive communication, address player concerns, and work towards a collective goal of overcoming both the external and internal challenges. The Twins have a talented roster and the potential to turn their season around, but it will require a concerted effort to address the issues highlighted by recent events and establish a more cohesive and focused approach moving forward.      

We all know Rocco is costing the Twins a chance for a win, every time he fills out the lineup card or comes out to make a pitching change.  And don't get me started on his pinch-hitting choices.  So, put a number on it. How many needless losses are on Rocco, so far this season?

As we have recently crossed the halfway point of the 2024 season, my next two posts will be taking a look at our most (and least) valuable players by win probability added (or subtracted). We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!
We will begin by looking at the five least valuable players of the first half. Nothing here surprised me based on the eye test, or looking at their WAR. Without further ado, we will start with the player who has helped the team the least so far this season. 
Christian Vazquez - C - (-1.75 WPA) 
Vasquez has not been good, by any measuring tool. He’s been the worst hitter by WAR, and it’s not close. In fact, his OPS+ has been historically bad. Think Drew Butera territory, then lose another 50 points of OPS and you are in the ball park. Somewhat interestingly, he hasn’t even really had any individual good games. His best single game increased the team’s chances to win by just 11%. Most of his games have been negative. To compound things, he has come up to bat in some key moments. Spoiler: he generally has not come through. And, by WPA, he has cost the team three and a half wins so far. 
 
Steven Okert - RP (-.78 WPA)
Okert hasn’t been great, but he also has been very un-clutch. So far this season, in limited action, he has had four bad games. The worst was on 5/6, when he decreased their chances to win by 44% - almost an entire loss on his shoulders. Okert came into the game against the Mariners with the Twins up 4-2 and the bases loaded. It began as Jay Jackson’s mess, but Okert immediately gave up a grand slam and the Twins went on to lose.
 
Louis Varland - SP (-.76 WPA)
It’s telling that despite Varland’s last two spot starts being solid or better, he is still very negative in WPA on the season. His first starts of April prior to his demotion were just that bad. Consider the following: in three of his four April starts, he cost the team at least a 25% likelihood to win the game. The worst was on 4/15 against the Orioles, when his WPA was -.34 due to allowing 11 hits, 2 HR, and 4 runs over 5 innings. Tough to win against a good team in that situation. Of course, he was demoted immediately following this start, and may be figuring out his form again after his stint at STP.
 
Kyle Farmer - IF (-.66 WPA)
Team leader? Yes. Versatile? Sure. A good hitter? Maybe not any more. Similar to Vazquez, the problem is he just hasn’t had many good games to balance the bad ones. His worst, in limited action, was on 4/13 against the Tigers. While the Twins won, it was no thanks to Farmer’s performance. He struck out with the bases loaded in the top of the 12th inning. Luckily, the rest of the team showed up to batting practice and the Twins scored 7 runs in the 12th for the win. His playing time has slumped along with his performance, and the end may be near for him.
 
Manny Margot - OF (-.63 WPA)        
Yes, Manny Margot has been much better for the past month. However, it will take him a couple more months at this level just to reach a neutral WPA. He was just that bad for April and May. Funnily enough, his worst game was the same as Farmer’s. He went 0-fer and left runners on base multiple times.
Stay tuned for tomorrow, and the recap of our top-5 WPA leaders in the first half.
What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the bottom performers turn it around in the second half? Comment below to start the discussion!     

In my last article, we looked at the bottom-5 performers by WPA at the halfway point. Today, we will look at the top performers. We will also take a look at some signature moments that led to this WPA. As a reminder, as with any stat, WPA is not perfect. It’s not predictive, and doesn’t really measure skill level. However, it’s a great shorthand to evaluate players relative value to the team through their performance when it matters most. To oversimplify things greatly, being worth .5 WPA is roughly equivalent to a win. Read on to see if there are any surprises!
In this group, there were two names that surprised me. Sometimes being clutch is sneaky! Let's start with the player who has increased the team's chances to win by more than any other player this season.
Carlos Correa - SS (1.45 WPA)
In case you were wondering, it did not surprise me that Correa is leading the team - he has been on fire for most of the season. His OPS+ is second-highest of his career, and for the past month, has been one of the strongest hitters in baseball, and he has been clutch. It’s a testament to his consistency that he has had four separate games in which he increased the team’s win probability by at least 25%. His signature moment so far happened on 5/30 against the Royals. Correa batted in the 5th with the bases loaded and the game tied at 4. Cut to a bases-clearing triple, and the bullpen saved the game for a key win against a divisional foe. Correa increased the chances for a Twins victory by 40% in that game, almost an entire win.
 
Jhoan Duran - RP (1.19 WPA)
This one surprised me quite a bit. As I have previously written about, Duran has been shaky this year (at least compared to his talent level and the past couple years). His velocity has been down, he hasn’t been locating his pitches in an optimal way, and he has blown saves at a higher rate than in years past. His bWAR is also negative on the year, and tied for worst on the team at -.3. However, situationally, he has still gotten it done more than it might seem. His best moment this season happened on 6/14. Duran came into a tie game in the 9th and increased the Twins’ chances to win by 45% when he pitched a scoreless 9th - and 10th - sending the As down in order to win the game.
 
Simeon Woods Richardson - SP (1.19 WPA)
SWR has been good, and this is backed up by his WPA. He has increased the team’s chances to win in 10/13 starts so far. His best game was on 5/6, when he threw 6 strong innings against the Mariners, giving up just a single hit and one walk, while striking out 8. The team won 3-1, and SWR increased their odds by 36%. Not bad for a rookie’s fourth start, and against one of the best teams in the AL!
 
Willi Castro - UTIL (1.18 WPA)
No surprises here. Castro has been playing out of his mind this season and is leading the team in bWAR at 2.9. He could be in line for his first All-star bid. Interestingly, Castro has only had one big WPA game this season, and it didn’t result in a Twins win. On 6/21, Castro batted in the 7th with the Twins down 2 runs, and hit a 3-run bomb to take the lead. Unfortunately, the bullpen immediate gave up the lead.
 
Ryan Jeffers - C  (1.09 WPA)
Jeffers, while slumping for the past month, has still been one of the best-hitting catchers in the league. He has had many clutch moments, including 4/12 against the Tigers, where he increased the chances of a Twins victory by a whopping 73%. He hit a homer to tie the game in the 7th, then knocked in Carlos Santana an inning later to take the lead. Later, he reached on an error when the game was re-tied, then came around to score for the lead once again. This was the Ryan Jeffers game.
What do you think? Did any of these players surprise you? Will any of the top performers cool off? Comment below to start the discussion!

You bet your sweet bippy they do.  They do platoon.  A lot.  My apologies for the click-bait subject line.  (It's fun.  Almost went with "One Weird Trick Your 2024 Twins Use To Platoon")
How do the Twins rank versus the other 29 teams, in plate appearances by batters in same-arm matchups?
LHB-vs-LHP:   29th  (64 PA, OPS of .759 which is 5th in the majors)
RHB-vs-RHP: 23rd  (752 PA, OPS of .680 which is 15th in the majors)
They try their darndest not to let it happen, especially with their lefty bats.  And here is how they do in opposite arm matchups:
RHB-vs-LHP:  7th  (520 PA, OPS of .707 which is 16th in the majors)
LHB-vs-RHP:  6th  (920 PA, OPS of .693 which is 18th in the majors)
What is the point of these numbers?  One, in case you wondered whether they go to great lengths to set up favorable hitting matchups, yes, yes they do.  Two, they aren't notably effective at exploiting these matchups.  Three, an oddity is that their unfavorable lefty matchups rank better in OPS versus their competitors than their favorable ones do.
Maybe the modest level of success at bat this season (they rank 16th overall in OPS) would be worse if they weren't doing things as they are.  Plus in addition also too, because the manager chooses which batter hits when, there is bias to all these statistics that is outside my control to account for.  The better results for left-handed batters against lefty pitchers than righties, in absolute terms, suggests Rocco is careful which bats to play in that matchup.
But mostly what I see is that they go to extremes, and reap little to no overall reward for their efforts.  The lefty bats don't clobber righties, and the righty bats don't crush lefties.  Why, again, are we even doing this?
I can't help having flashbacks to the old quote from the dugout: "I managed good, but they sure played bad."  (ChatGPT 3.5 attributes this to Casey Stengel; therefore I feel 99% confident that it must have been someone else.  Rocco Baldelli may become the source of the quote, going forward.)  But at some point, that guy who "managed good" needs to stop and ask if it's worth the trouble, and what better thing might be tried.

Joe Pohald recently stated that he and his family are “just trying to right-size our business.” when he was asked about the $120M payroll for 2024, which is ranked 20 out of the 30 teams.  When I think of the term “right-sizing”, I think of the promise that was made when we approved and funded the stadium for the Twins.  The promise that the Pohlad family made in an 08/13/2008 Star Tribune article called “TWIN CITIES SPORTS OWNERS: the pohlads, minnesota twins BAND OF BROTHERS EXTENDS A LEGACY”

In another 2008 article Dave St. Peter stated:

Are the Twins in the process of “right-sizing” their payroll of $120M to match revenue of $240M?  That is a laughable suggestion but let’s back that up with facts.  We know as a fact from the last collective bargaining agreement that all teams get $200 million in revenue sharing.  In addition, it is widely believed that the Twins are getting $40 million+ this year from BSN.  So, without lifting a finger, playing a game, or even having a second to lie to its fans the Twins are making enough revenue to make the 50% rule work for the current payroll.
What might a team make beyond the revenue sharing and TV deal?  We can estimate that by looking at the Braves and see they made $528 million in 2023 due to their public disclosures as part of Liberty Media.  We also know that the Braves TV Deal is for $68 million a year so if you subtract that and the $200 million in revenue sharing you get $260 million in stadium, licensing, merchandise, etc… revenue.  With the Twin Cities metro area roughly being 60% the size of the Braves let’s assume that the Twins can only generate 60% of the same baseball revenue ($260*60%=$156 million).  The Twins are looking at $396 million in revenue based on this model and are spending only 30% on payroll.  

There is no other way to look at this other than a broken promise made to taxpayers and a money grab by some Nepo-babies.
 

Louis Varland just went four innings, one hit, in his last spring training start. He has gone 11 innings in 4 appearances, 3 starts, and is given up a total of six hits and no runs. He's got 11 strikeouts, one walk, a spring training WHIP of 0.64, and an ERA of 0.00. I know spring training statistics are not necessarily predictive but you do have to ask yourself what a guy has to do to make the team. His primary competition, Anthony DeSclafani, has yet to pitch an inning in spring training. He is allegedly "ramping up" his bullpens but that's as far as he's gotten given what I think was shoulder pain (may have been elbow or forearm) at the beginning of spring training. You have to think that Varland has won a spot in the starting rotation with his performance.
Prediction: DeSclafani opens up the season on the Injured List. Varland opens up the season as the fifth starter and the Twins have all five starters pitching. There are no skipped starts due to off days. DeSclafani comes off the IL in 10 days, and then goes to AAA for the full 20 day rehab period to build up innings. At that point, there is a decision to be made but past history tells us that someone will be ineffective or need an IL stint to give DeSclafani a spot. It may be a bullpen spot if all of the starters are pitching well but I suspect there will be a spot. What do you guys think?
Question: Given DeSclafani's issues in spring training, he me need a longer Il stint than 10 days but probably doesn't need the full 60 days. Is there another option? Alternatively, if the only choices are a 10 day or 60 day IL designation, if we put him on the 60 day list can he come back sooner and pitch in the minors? In other words, could he be put on the 60 day list and thus off the 40 man roster, but come back to AAA in say 30 days and spend a month building back up? I know a lot of you guys know the rules really well so I'm curious because that seems to me to be the smart move. He's then ready around June 1 and by then we will be in need of another starter if for no other reason than Paddack will need a break. More likely, one of the top five will either be hurt or ineffective. Anybody know the answer?

WAR, what is it? I know it's wins above replacement but what does that mean? How do they come up with that? And what formula do they use? WAR is a stat that drives Fantasy Baseball &  analytical baseball; helps us evaluate individuals, teams & even determine HOF inductees. I've heard that most HOF voters often use total WAR to determine who to vote for unless they have some bias. But is WAR really the end-all means to evaluate a player's worth?
Let's look at catching. Catchers often sacrifice themselves to benefit the team, put a lot of time into evaluating hitters, and getting to know their pitchers, there's a lot of intangibles in being a catcher that are not calculated into WAR. IMO catching is the most important defensive position in baseball. They're in every play, stabilize the rotation & command the defense. But they haven't been fairly represented in the HOF lately. Why is that? It's because WAR is the standard & what affects WAR is HRs, defense is minimized & the intangibles are not considered.
Let me use a case in point, Yadier Molina. Yadi, you probably heard is a very good catcher but until you watch him play you can't really appreciate how elite he really is. Yet there are many that question his credentials of becoming a HOFer, because his WAR isn't high enough (his slugging % is not high enough although his BA is above average, especially for a catcher). Molina put in 19 yrs, all in STL catching every year. The lowest place they finished was once in 4th place yet they had a 89-79 record, during most of those years, STL made it to the postseason, won the NLC 4Xs going to the World Series 4Xs & winning the World Series 2Xs. Most of those years they were mainly considered a pitching/ defense type team. He won 9 GGs, 4 platnium gloves & 10 AS selections.
Some headlines of the Cards downfall last season blamed "the breakdown of the rotation" others "lack of leadership" yet more " poor defense"  & "catching". I think they could all be summed up with "no Molina". Molina stabilized the rotation, he was a leader, he commanded the defense & had great defensive stats of CS% & picking off runners that digressed after he left. Willson Contreras was a top 10 catcher, the most consistant hitting catcher in MLB. But STL pitchers refused to pitch to him in the beginning, Not because he was a terrible pitch caller (he was probably average) or was terrible in handling the pitchers it was because he wasn't Yadi. Molina had an incredible feel for the game, he knew what was going on all time. He knew when to change up the pich calling, pick off runners, when a pitcher should come out etc.
Joe Mauer deservingly was inducted into the HOF because he was the GOAT MLB hitting catcher, yet all MVP Mauer's years in MN, despite MN's greatest postseason SPs duo of Santana & Liriano, MVP Morneau, (CF)Hunter, Cuddyer plus others never had post season success. If I wasn't such a great fan of our honorable hometown hero Mauer & if I had choice between 15 years of Mauer (55.2 WAR) or 19 years of Molina (44.1 WAR), I'd pick Molina.
Now I'm not here to start a Molina for HOF campaign. & most certainly not start an anti-Mauer platform (I strongly denounce that) this has nothing to do about either. I'm here to show how unfair WAR is to exclusively evalute a player. Where hitting HRs raises WAR means everything & SOs & defense means very little.
 

The 1961 American League season was unique because for the first time since the turn of the century the league was not made up of 8 teams. Not only did the Senators move from Washington to Minnesota, but the league added 2 expansion teams, the Los Angeles Angels and the “new” Washington Senators. Originally the expansion teams were supposed to be located in Los Angeles and Minneapolis-St. Paul, but Calvin Griffith, the owner of the Washington Senators, asked for and received approval to move the Senators to Minnesota, giving Washington the expansion team. Even though the Senators had a hard time getting fans to attend, the baseball felt that because of baseball’s anti-trust issues that it was best to have a team in the Nation's capital.
Up until the Senators moved to Minnesota there had only been 5 teams that had pulled up stakes in one city and moved to another. They were: 1) in 1953 when the Boston Braves moved to Milwaukee, 2) in 1954 when the St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore, 3) in 1955 when the Philadephia Athletics moved to Kansas City, and 4/5) in 1958 when the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants moved to Los Angeles and San Francisco, 
There would be other relocations after the Twins: 1) in 1966 the Milwaukee Braves moved to Atlanta, 2) in 1968 the Kansas City Athletics moved to Oakland, 3) in 1970 the expansion Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee, 4) in 1972 the Washington Senators moved to Dallas/Ft. Worth, 5) in 2005 the Montreal Expos moved to Washington, D.C. and 6) in 2024 the Oakland Athletics moved to Las Vegas.
When the Washington Senators relocated to Minnesota in 1961 they brought with them a team that had finished the 1960 season with a 73-81 record, good for 5th place in the 8 team American League. This was their best finish in 6 years -
1946
4th
1947
7th
1948
7th
1949
8th
1950
5th
1951
7th
1952
5th
1953
5th
1954
6th
1955
8th
1956
7th
1957
8th
1958
8th
1959
8th
1960
5th
Not only were they in the 2nd half of the 8 team division in standings, but here are their attendance standings.
1946
5th
1947
7th
1948
6th
1949
7th
1950
6th
1951
6th
1952
6th
1953
6th
1954
7th
1955
8th
1956
8th
1957
8th
1958
8th
1959
8th
1960
8th
Their attendance for the 1960 season at Griffith Stadium was 743,404 (9,655 per game), which was the lowest in the American League. When they moved they brought with them their Owner and General Manager, Clark Griffith, Farm Director – Sherry Robertson and Manager – Cookie Lavagetto. Cookie would only last 59 games into the season when he was fired with a 23-36 record and was replaced by Sam Mele who would be 47-54-1 for the season. Their overall record was 70-90-1 good for 7th place (out of 10 teams). Both the expansion Senators and the Angels would finish behind the Twins in the standings as well as the Kansas City Athletics. The Twins attendance for the season was 1,256,723 (an average of slightly over 15,000 per game (3rd out of 10 teams).
How much better was it to receive a team as a transfer rather than an expansion team?
If we examine the 8 teams that relocated between 1901 and 1968 you will see that many of them had early success that may not have happened if they had received an expansion team.
Here is where those 8 teams finished in the standings in their first five years in a new city.
Team
 
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
1953 Milwaukee Braves
 
2
3
2
2
1
1954 Baltimore Orioles
 
7
7
6
5
6
1955 Kansas City Athletics
 
6
8
7
7
7
1958 Los Angeles Dodgers
 
7
1
4
2
2
1958 San Francisco Giants
 
3
3
5
3
1
1961 Minnesota Twins
 
7
2
3
6
1
1966 Atlanta Braves
 
5
7
5
1
5
1968 Oakland Athletics
 
6
2
2
1
1
It’s really interesting to note that there have been a total of 8 franchise moves listed above and 6 of the teams won a league championship within 5 years of moving.
Here are the first five years of every expansion team.
Team
 
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
1961 Los Angeles Angels (of 10)
 
8
3
9
5
7
1961 Washington Senators (of 10)
 
9
10
10
9
8
1962 New York Mets (of 10)
 
10
10
10
10
9
1962 Houston Colt .45s (of 10)
 
8
9
9
9
8
1969 Kansas City Royals (of 6)
 
4
4
2
4
2
1969 Seattle Pilots (of 6)
 
6
4
6
4
6
1969 San Diego Padres (of 6)
 
6
6
6
6
6
1969 Montreal Expos (of 6)
 
6
6
6
6
6
1977 Toronto Blue Jays (of 7)
 
7
7
7
7
7
1977 Seattle Mariners (of 7)
 
6
7
6
7
6
1993 Colorado Rockies (of 7) (of 4)
 
6
3
2
3
3
1993 Florida Marlins (of 7) (of 5)
 
6
5
4
3
2
1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (of 5)
 
5
5
5
5
5
1998 Arizona Diamondbacks (of 5)
 
5
1
3
1
1
Of the 14 expansion teams listed in the table only the Diamondbacks were able to finish in 1st place in their division (3 times). Only the Diamondbacks, Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies experienced moderate success.
1960/61 Expansion Draft to stock Los Angeles Angels and Washington Senators
In the very first expansion draft an existing team had to make available seven players from their active roster as of August 31, 1960 and eight others from their 40 man roster, with a maximum of seven players that could be taken from each existing club.
The Angels took Eli Grba, Jerry Casale, Duke Maas, Tex Clevenger, and Bob Sprout with their 1st five choises, while the Senators took Bobby Shantz, Dave Sisler, Johhny Klipstein, Pete Burnside and Carl Mathias with their choices. The Senators/Twins would lose Tex Clevinger, Hal Woodeshick, Hector Maestri, Rudy Hernandez, Johnny Schaive, Faye Throneberry, Julio Becquer and Joe McClain.  
1997/98 Expansion Draft to stock the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Arizona Diamondbacks
In the most recent expansion draft each existing team could protect 15 players. All players in an organization were eligible to be drafted except with those with no prior major league experience who had less than 3 years of service. A team could lose no more than 1 player per round, with 28 selections in rounds one and two, and 14 selections in round 3. After the first two rounds a team could add three more players to be protected.
The Devil Rays chose Tony Saunders, Quinton McCracken, Bobby Abreau, Miguel Cairo and Rich Bulter with their 1st five choices. The Diamondbacks chose Brian Anderson, Jeff Suppan, Gabe Alvarez, Jorge Fabergas, and Karim Garcia with their choices. The best player taken in the draft would turn out to be Randy Winn taken from the Marlins by the Devil Rays in the 3rd round. The Twins would lose Brent Brede (1B) and Damian Miller (Catcher).
Conclusion
Clark Griffith did the fans of the Twins a great service by moving his franchise to Minnesota in 1961, rather than giving Minnesota an expansion team.

Alright folks listen up I have some thoughts I want to get off my chest and I'm digging deeper then a home run hit by the REAL TC Bear at the Metrodome so buckle up.  In this essay, I will explore and evaluate Carlos Correa's performance as assistant general manager, 2 years in.
On January 11th 2023 a day that will live in infamy Carlos Correa who was turned down because of medicals by the giants and Mets came crawling back to Minnesota because no one else would take him and he got 200 million buckaroos to boot.  And that fateful day he was dubbed "assistant general manager of the Minnesota Twins" by Thad Levine and Scott Boris.  Miriam Webster defines assistant as "a person who assists someone" general as "not confined by specialization or careful limitation" and manager as "a person who conducts business or household affairs" so that means Correa is someone who assists the business of the Twins that is not confined by specialization.
Now I have a gripe to pick with that definition as Correa is confined by specialization he's just a defensive specialist stop me if you heard this before but he's just another Mark Belanger in the field and he shouldn't hit higher then seventh.  But I suppose that's besides the point because these days there changing grammar rules to fit what people are more comfortable with.  Just the other year the Associated Press (whom I would never want to associate with) said that "less" and "fewer" are interchangeable now. Folks,, that's fewer then ideal if you ask me.  Fewer refers to quantifiable entities but less refers to things you can't "count."  Theres less sand on the beach but fewer grains of sand I'll just leave it at that if you catch my drift.
But I digress.  With Correa's new title as assistant general manager (abbreviated to AGM henceforth) comes responsibility.  Just like Uncle Ben told Luke Skywalker, with Great Power Comes Great Responsibility.  So where is his assistant general manager responsibility when cheap pohlad issues a edict from on high that the Twins are cutting payroll.  The pocket protectors at the Athletic reported that it could be as low as 125 million but with how buddy-buddy those clowns are with the owners, I would guess it will be closer to 115 DESPITE the taxpayer funded stadium.
If Carlos Correa is really the AGM, why hasn't he stepped up to the plate and forced cheap pohlad to recant his ways?  A true leader would walk right up to that man and demand a bigger payroll, even if that meant he got cut and didn't get his 30 million dollars a year.  It's called integrity.  My first job I walked into the managers office and said "sir I would like a job" and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor.  It's called initiative.  cheap pohlad might even like his gumption.  The Twins are paying Correa enough that he shouldn't be afraid to step up and do the right thing but I guess that's just how baseballer are raised these days when they don't live in fear of Bob Gibson or Christy Mathewson or Eddie Cicotte putting one in there earhole.
Speaking of doing the right thing, the Twins never bunt except for scrappy infielder Jorge Polanco and my favorite player Michael A. Taylor who sneakily plays the game the right way.  Why hasn't Correa sat Baldelli (the "field manager") and told him "No Rocco, we're playing smallball now.  Its not 2019 anymore.  If it was good enough for the 1927 Yankees than why isn't it good enough for the 2024 Twins."  As AGM, he is Rocco's boss.  He's a puppet for the front office anyway and that includes Carlos.
And another thing, speaking about bunting.  How come bunting is only placed around the stadiums after the fourth of July (Independence Day).  I really like those little half-circle flags.  They really tie the field together and it reminds us of the greatest country God ever invented where we play the greatest Sport He ever invented,  It's like how there's no jobs for pumping gas anymore.  We just take things away that are useful and good to streamline the process, which is probably why Driveline is personally snipping 14 year olds' UCLs so they have to get Tommy John surgery.
Anyway, I want to point out some hypocrisy from our friend Carlos.  He exerted his influence to make signings like his old Astros friend Christian Vazquez and also Dallas Keuchel.  But he's refusing to put his foot down and challenge cheap pohald on one little thing?  And don't come at me siting things like "The Ballys's Situation" because that's a load of hogwash.  If Derek and Thad "the smartest guys in the room" couldn't see this whole thing come crashing down then why are they paid for?  But of course the whole Ballys's situation blew up in everyone's faces and now we have half the screen taken up by bally betting lines (there a gambling company like the Bellagio).  But of course you can gamble during the baseball game from your smart TV but Pete Rose, an upstanding public figure, bet on some games that he had control over and made in-game decisions based on whether or not he bet on that game and now he can't get into the Hall of Fame?  What a joke.
Speaking of fairness and equality, [Hi, this is Greggory's wife, Earnestine.  I have been editting this post and fixing type-os for Greggory, but I'm making the executive decisions to omit this paragraph.  While his head was in the right place, Greggory's calls to rename singles to "gentleman singles" and walks to "lady singles" in an effort to promote gender equality probably didn't come off in the right way.]
And so that brings me to my next point.  Carlos Correa needs to also reconsider the money he's making.  Instead of trading a team legend like all-American boy Max Kepler (who I would let date my daughter) to shave salary, maybe Carlos could consider a paycut.  Based on Fan Graphs WAR he was only worth about 15 million dollars which is a kings ransom for Buxton but okay for Correa, so maybe he should except the paycut down to 15 million.  IF he's as committed to winning as he said then maybe he's willing to do so.  It's what leaders do.  Or maybe he could restructure his contract a la Kurt Cousins.
I once had a offer to double my salary and jump over to the meat packing plant but I know the value of loyalty and look at me now I'm the floor supervisor.  So that's what's got this on my mind like a Sheboygan sausage, which reminds me whatever happened to the Hormel W***** Winner Row?  I never got one but I always wanted a free DomeDog.
This winter, if Carlos Correa wants to prove that he has earned the title of AGM, well then it's time to start putting the money where his mouth is.  It's just sad to watch this childrens' game become a big money grab for everyone involved.  Sure, back in the day you had your Chick Gandils and Billy Mahargs, but they were the exception not the rules.  Owners used to be willing to spend on their teams.  Remember the time that Tommy Lasorda beat up the San Diego Chicken?  But the game we used to love is now dominated by launch velocity and exit angle and seam shifted wake and they don't give away physical ticket stubs either.  I can only add it to my Apple Wallet which is the only billfold you can't put in your back pocket or else it will break.
Everything is just too streamlined and money focused these days which is probably why downtowns don't decorate for Christmas anymore.  I miss seeing wreaths and tinsel and statues of Santa now the only place I can go to get that ambiance is the hellhole that is Duluth, MN.  But even Duluth makes they're downtown look like that all year.  It's like they waited for Bing Crosby's song Winter Wonderland to hit the public domain then made a town around it.  just another sign of the corporatization of middle America.  Speaking of winters in Minnesota why didn't they build a roof on Target Field? Probably never expected to have a playoff game in October which is why cheap pohlad only invests enough to pretend to compete like signing Carlos Correa when they could have signed 42 minimum-salary players for the same money.  And don't even start with me about how having a roof on Target Field would mean fans can't see the Minnesota skyline because let me tell you about downtown Minnesota. Ever since [Earnestine again; we are going to skip this part].
Which brings me to my final point and thesis.  I think that the Twins rolled out the red carpet for Correa and he didn't deserve it.  Beyond the salary, he also got "Star Wars Night" instituted and I'm here to say that he's not even a real nerd because Kylo Ren and the Sequel Series are NOT cannon.  I consider myself more of a Trekkie myself they really have some good messages about inclusivity unlike Star Wars which is all about space wizards for children committing terrorism against the state.  But Correa has probably never even read Asimov or knows the rules to robots.
So the Twins did all that work to bring him in and the fans have nothing to show for it.  Just another Hershel Walker trade and Parise and Suter.  When will he earn his salary and demand cheap pohlad invest in this team?  Probably never.  Instead they'll probably trade all there good players for prospects who will just be traded again once there good.  And speaking of good I have one last thought.  I really miss seeing Mary Tyler Moore on the tube. She was a real fox and they don't make women like that [except for my loving wife Earnestine].  It's just frustrating that people these days don't value the same things anymore.  It says a lot about the state of our country, if you ask me.

Minnesota acquired veteran outfielder Sam Fuld off of waivers from the Athletics very early in the 2014 season. The 32-year old was hitting just .200 through seven games with Oakland, and carried a career OPS+ of 79.
Fuld then began to play some of his best baseball during his time with the Twins. He collected two hits in his Twins debut, including an RBI single against Rays reliever Brandon Gomes. That was followed up by two more multi-hit games, and a five game hitting streak to begin his Twins tenure. Fuld quickly became the team’s regular centerfielder, replacing a struggling Aaron Hicks.
He never hit for much power, but Fuld played good defense and had a .370 on-base percentage over 53 games in Minnesota. This is compared to the .307 OBP that Fuld sports for his eight year Major League career. His performance made him good enough to flip at the deadline. Ironically, the team who traded for him was the same team who had waived him in April. Oakland sent Tommy Milone back to the Twins for a guy they let leave for nothing just three months earlier.
Fuld would remain in Oakland during the 2015 season, batting .197 over 120 games. That would be the end of his big league playing career. He slashed .227/.307/.325 (.632) over 598 games with the Cubs, Rays, Athletics, and Twins. Fuld was also worth 30 defensive runs saved in the outfield.
The end of his playing career was not his final chapter in the Majors though. He was hired as the Phillies player information coordinator in 2017, and the industry immediately identified him as a rising front office star. The Blue Jays interviewed Fuld for their managerial job after the 2018 season, and he was seen as a strong candidate until withdrawing his name from consideration. Pittsburgh also showed interest in hiring Fuld as their general manager in 2019, but the job went to Ben Cherington instead.
Philadelphia eventually did promote Fuld to general manager in December 2020, making him the number two man for President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski.

Thanks, folks. 
A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog inviting feedback for some paint schemes for the wall in a room that has transitioned from our youngest son's bedroom to our office. Alas, he got married and moved to North Carolina -- we like the married part, just wish he didn't live so far from northern Indiana. That post is here: https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/23701-help-design-my-man-cave/ 
The goal was to combine a Fathead with some shelving to create a space to display the set of Tony Oliva baseball cards I've gathered, along with some others. I invited feedback to the following ideas: 
 
And the one I chose was...
No. 6. 
So, next up was using a friend's table saw to rip some MDF board into 5/8" x 5/8" strips, followed by cutting a quarter-inch angled groove to hold the cards. Then Mrs. IT took over, handling the priming and painting. Finally, my brother-in-law, much more adept at such projects than me, helped me stick the Fathead and place and mount the strips. 
Here's what I got: 

 
I'm pretty pleased. Mrs. IT needs to do a little touch-up painting, touching up the screw holes and a few more spots. What you see here are a complete set of Topps, Kelloggs and Hostess Oliva cards on the left, plus a couple extra odds and ends. On the upper right are my Killebrew cards, with Carews underneath. Neither of those are complete.
Eventually, I'll tighten them up so I can add some other favorites from over the years -- Hrbek, Puckett, Gaetti, etc. Probably need to get a Wynegar and some others. It may not take long for Lewis to make an appearance on the IT Wall of Fame. And depending on how full I want to make the space, I may also include a few non-Twin favorites and/or legends from over the years, namely Brock, Aaron, Clemente, etc. I don't have any that are particular valuable (and none graded), but on the wall will at least bring more enjoyment than in boxes under the bed. The total space is about 84 inches by 40 inches.
Thanks to @Cornholio, @Rod Carews Birthday, @Wyotwinsfan, @davidborton, @DocBauer, @gil4, @nclahammer, @Original_JB, @dcswede, @Khaddie and @Puckett34 for great insights and suggestions.
I was originally thinking I'd go with No. 8, but after coming up with a number of mockups, I was starting to lean toward No. 6 by the time I posted. So to get a couple early affirmations of that option helped firm up that decision. Some other comments:
There were some good suggestions that would have given it a much more professional feel (and would have been beyond my capability or cost more than I was prepared to spend. A couple folks cautioned about covering up too much of the Fathead. With that encouragement, I did move the strips out a bit. They end up overlapping by about three inches, rather than the six inches I originally planned. I think that was an improvement, so thanks for those suggestions. If I was to do anything different with the layout, I'd give each row another quarter to half inch of space (starting at the bottom) to push the top row up to have even less overlap with the letters.  A few people had ideas for some additions, suggesting some autographed photos, Homer Hankies, etc. (And speaking of, I need to track down one of this year's.) I do plan some of those things with the next steps. The exterior wall of the room has about 43 inches on each side of a window, so I'm thinking of putting in a relatively high shelf for the four Wheaties/Kelloggs boxes (still full) from 1987 and 1991. I may do a second shelf with some autographed balls, but I really don't have any significant ones. I do have some other things, however, such as a Rod Carew RC Cola can and an Oliva-signed cap, etc. I'm only a few years from retirement, so I'll need to consider where to go with two jerseys. I'm perhaps the only person on TD with a game-used Travis Miller jersey. I never thought I'd buy a gamer of anyone, but when you're in the team store and see one with your last name on it, it's tough to resist. My congregation gifted me another jersey when transitioned from pastoring there to another ministry opportunity. In total, I have another 10 or so linear feet of wall space on this half the room to use for such things. Mrs. IT gets the other side of the room. So again, thanks. If anyone heads through northern Indiana on the toll road and wants to stop off for a visit, I'd be glad to show it in person! 😃
 

And while I'm at it, I do have another spot in the house that folks might find interesting. I've been fortunate enough to have been able to combine some work-related travel with vacations and have been to all 30 current stadiums (plus a dozen or so that have been closed)*. I spent some time to create some collages from photos I've taken along the way (plus a handful from the Web of stadiums that I went to before I started taking pictures). Here's what we have in our entry hallway. Each frame is a division, with the teams in alphabetical order from top to bottom.
 
 
*Lest you think that's impressive, what's more impressive is the amazing Mrs. IT. She's been to 24, even though she's not a baseball fan. When someone asked her about it, her response, "I don't like baseball, but I like some people who like baseball." 
 
 

Last night I was at the game and, of course, had to take my five-year-old souvenir shopping. We were checking out the game-used booth when this caught my eye. 

That's right my friends, an empty, unsigned, completely unremarkable EMPTY bucket of gum for the low, low price of $300. How do they sell this with a straight face?!
We got him a Duran jersey instead! 
 

Everyone knows that Byron Buxton is struggling with some sort of knee injury.  Some folks are happy with the Twins current plan of playing him at DH, some want him at CF regardless of injury, and some just want more information about the injury because whatever the Twins are doing it doesn’t seem to be working.  I am in the last group and I am personally growing increasingly frustrated with the lack of information coming from the team and derision from the media.

If you don’t agree with some on Byron Buxton’s situation you “don’t watch the games” or “don’t treat the players like humans” but after the latest media scrum from Rocco on this you “just don’t want to listen”.  I have actually “listened” to a lot of things about Buxton’s knee over the last 2 years.
I listened when Dan Hayes reported that Buxton knew all of 2022 that he needed a knee surgery and would be out for only 6-8 weeks.  He had that surgery in September and still isn’t in CF.

I listened when Do-Hyoung Park reported last September that Falvey said there are no tears or structural issues in the knee and it is no worse that what most folks have in their daily lives.  He had that surgery in September and still isn’t in CF.

I listened when Dan Hayes reported that Byron Buxton reported to camp in good shape and is not limited at all.  Despite the lack of limitations, he still isn’t in CF.

I listened when the Gleeman & the Geek Progrum said for the entirety of Spring Training that Buxton not playing in games was not concerning and that many modern front offices don’t use games to get ready for the season.  He still isn’t playing games in CF.

I listened at the beginning of the season when Dan Hayes reported Buxton would be starting the season at DH to avoid crappy weather in April but that Buxton feels great.  He still isn’t in CF.
And I am listening now they say he physically can't play CF, which I can also see with my own eyes.

At this point I have lost faith in listening to the Twins and their treatment plans for an injury they are choosing not to disclose.  I am also tired of the media not even trying to ask during the press scrums “What’s wrong with the knee?  Ligament, Cartilage, Meniscus, Arthritis, etc…”  I don’t need an X-Ray or MRI, just a basic injury declaration like hundreds of other MLB players have given in the past. 

Data and analytics have become scary words across the land of Minnesota Twins baseball recently.  Rocco Baldelli gets criticized regularly for never lifting his head out of the spreadsheet or not trusting his players because the computer told him not to. Many say that the manager needs to go with his gut more often in order to win games or that he needs to take game situations to mind when making decisions.  Let’s dig in a little bit.
So what is this “data”?  Is data all those batting, pitching, and fielding statistics broken down into every conceivable combination and minute detail?  Of course it is.  That’s what we all think of.  How does Batter X perform against a particular pitcher?  Are there platoon advantages to be gained from Batter Y?  We need a home run, who is most likely to hit one right now?  We just need to advance the runner, is Batter Z the right guy to do that?  On the pitching side, how well does Pitcher A perform in his third time through the lineup?  What pitch should Pitcher B throw to Hitter W to get him out?  There are literally hundreds of different statistics out there to analyze and utilize.  The breakdown can go on forever and possibly to the point of silliness, like “What is Batter Q’s hitting line against a submarining lefty pitcher wearing a red uniform north of the Mason Dixon line on a windy Thursday during Lent?”
So that’s what we understand data to be.  It’s all about numbers right?  Well, maybe not.  The things we think of a data are merely numerically quantifying and confirming what is true (or disproving what is thought to be true). For example, in 1977, everyone knew that Rod Carew was the guy you wanted batting if you wanted to start a rally.  That was common knowledge.  Why? Well, because he seems to get a lot of hits and walks and doesn’t strike out a ton.  It’s a no brainer, right?  Yes.  That’s right.  However, to use a simple piece of “data”, his on base percentage that year was almost .450 (I guess that happens when you hit .388!).  Those numbers reinforce or “prove” that he was the guy that the Twins want batting in that situation.  Until they don’t.   Sometimes Rod Carew struck out.  In fact, in arguably the greatest hitting season in team history, he made outs 55% of the time.  Even so, he was still the best option in Gene Mauch’s and pretty much everyone else’s mind. 
What about that “gut feeling”?  It’s called anecdotal data.  It is a belief in something based on some evidence that the decision-maker values.  It’s “the eye test”.  He “looks like a major leaguer”.  “What a great pitch!”  Why do people say that?  Because they have seen things happen that confirm their feelings. Their brain is comparing it to other things they have seen and is making a value judgement based on their experiences.  We don’t realize it, but the personal computer in our head is keeping track and counting occurrences of how things play out on the baseball field.  The brain is analyzing the data that it sees and is coming to a decision.  We don’t think about it that way because we don’t think out loud and verbalize that we are analyzing.  We just “do it”.  No one needs to tell us to drive on the right side of the road, we just know (without knowing any numerical statistics) that driving on the left side would lead to very bad outcomes eventually. 
Back in days of old, when the 1927 Yankees came to town, managers (and pitchers) knew that they were in trouble getting through the heart of the order.  They probably knew Babe Ruth’s and Lou Gehrig’s batting average and the number of home runs they hit, but that’s about all they had.  The rest was just their gut – what they thought might be true based on what they saw in the past. As time went on, more and more ways to quantify those gut feelings came along and gradually came into broader use across the league.  Do you think that manager Bucky Harris of the 1927 Washington Senators would have liked to have some statistical analysis that would help inform his decisions when facing the Bronx Bombers?  I’m certain that he would have.  He would likely have tried to use any advantage he could come up with and knowing where Ruth and Gehrig’s weak spots in the strike zone were would have come in very handy.  Goose Goslin and Tris Speaker were good, but they were never going to keep up with the unchecked Bambino and Slambino. By the way, Bucky Harris was also the 2nd baseman in addition to being the manager that year who used whatever data he could conceive of to beat those damn Yankees.  It didn’t work.  The Senators were pretty good in 1927, but still finished in 3rd place.
So let’s return to 2023. Why do people think that Rocco Baldelli uses data and analytics too much?  Probably because he talks about it a lot and because the game across the league has changed more than fans of one team realize.  Rocco is a smart guy, and a numbers guy.  He’s playing the odds using as much actuarial science as he can in most of the baseball decisions he makes.  Spoiler Alert: This will not always result in decisions working out!  Just as with Rod Carew making outs 55% of the time in 1977, it is not an exact science. If Choice A has a 45% chance of success and Choice B has a 25% chance of success, I’m going with Choice A every single time, even if sometimes it will go the other direction.  This is what insurance companies do all the time when they set the rates that they charge for your insurance policy.  They know that sometimes they will be wrong, but the odds (informed by more statistical analysis than I want to think about or can comprehend) say that over the long term they will have made a good decision.  Add in the human element and those decisions get even more complex. 
But Rocco still uses too much data!  If you mean he takes all the information available to him and factors it into the decision, then yes, he uses too much data if that’s your definition.  Did Tom Kelly use all the information he had to make decisions?  Ron Gardenhire?  I’m pretty sure they did and I’m pretty sure they would like to use the additional information that’s available now as well.  Are they better or worse managers than Rocco Baldelli?  I’m not here to answer that, but I’m certain that the determining factor shouldn’t be whether they used the most complete information available to them to make decisions. Sometimes the data will lead you in the right direction and sometimes it will be wrong, but decisions have to be based on something!  What do you think?
 
 
 
 

The Luis Arraez trade is getting embarrassing for the Twins
Arraez has THREE five-hit games this month. The most five-hit games by any player in a career since 1956 is ten by Pete Rose.
JOE NELSON
 
Arraez has THREE five-hit games this month. The most five-hit games by any player in a career since 1956 is ten by Pete Rose.
Luis Arraez looks like a cinch to win the National League batting title and he could threaten to become the first .400 hitter since Ted Williams in 1941. Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez, the right-hander the Twins received by trading Arraez to the Marlins, has been an average starting pitcher. 
Arraez is a hitting machine and the Twins may have made a gigantic mistake by letting him go in an effort to quench the franchise's thirst for a high-end starting pitcher. 
https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/the-luis-arraez-trade-is-getting-embarrassing-for-the-twins?fbclid=IwAR1nSzZ5oMX_gZhjU9hBH3OFoZAlrH54ZWXoiCTv8jAmXIPGI19VeKNDglE
 
My view from the beginning was that this trade would backfire. Obviously the jury is still out and hopefully Lopez will be the guy the Twins need to anchor the front of the rotation, even more so with the likelihood Sonny Gray is gone after this season.
 

After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
Losers
1. Kenta Maeda
Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
2. Trevor Megill
Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
3. Gilberto Celestino
2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
Winners
1. Edouard Julien
Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
2. Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
3. The Twins Front Office
There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
...
Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.

Who cares. A common phrase I hear more and more often. Did you hear about the Carlos Correa fiasco? Who cares. Do you think Dansby Swanson is worth the money and years he received? Who cares. Did you see the new rules for this year? Who cares. This feeling of apathy loomed over most of the conversations I tried to have about baseball while home for the holidays, and when I was done sipping eggnog out of frustration, I came back to Iowa for some more of the same. To them, the upcoming ‘who gives a damn’ bowl that the Hawkeyes were playing in was far more interesting than the insane contracts being thrown about like money was going out of style (I’m talking to you Steve Cohen). The more time I spend trying to talk baseball with those that aren’t as into it as myself, a truth harder than the plate in Carlos Correa’s leg becomes obvious to me. Baseball is failing to market itself properly to gain interest from both the average fan and potential young fans alike. There is no singular solution and I certainly don’t have all the answers. However, the lack of visibility for its star players, fun-killing unwritten rules, and media blackouts are all core issues that are eating away at the popularity of the sport.
Similar to the ‘who cares’ response I receive from folks a lot is the even simpler, ‘who?’ My mother-in-law, who is about as far from a sports fan as you can be and is from Texas, mentioned the huge contract that Dak Prescott signed with the Cowboys. I tried pulling the conversation towards baseball and followed up with the Aaron Judge contract and the insane amount of money and years dropped into the lap of a player already in his 30s. I expected her response to be related to the amount of money we pay to professional athletes, instead she said, “who?” That’s a problem MLB. Your star players need to be recognizable to the average person and need to be highlighted and promoted as such. Everyone knows who Lebron James or Tom Brady is, but not too many people outside of us baseball fans know who Aaron Judge, Fernando Tatis (I know…), or Bryce Harper are.
I think part of the issue is that there are unwritten rules in baseball that don’t allow its star players to show off their personality and become icons and known to the general public. The best example I can think of happened to Fernando Tatis (again, I know…) in 2021 I believe. The Padres were up big and the bases were loaded. It was 3-0 and Tatis got an absolute meatball and hit an epic blast. Four more runs. Afterwards, the cameras showed Tatis in the dugout getting chewed out for swinging 3-0 when his team was up big. He later apologized. APOLOGIZED. This infuriated me. One, why shouldn’t he swing? Two, he gets paid based on performance. Three, it gets his team a larger cushion. Lastly, home runs are awesome and incredibly difficult to hit. Honestly, the odds are he would have gotten himself out (pace of play, you’re welcome). Not only that, but now you have taken one of the young and amazing talents in your sport, whom you wish to be one of the faces of the league (really, again, I know…) and reprimanded him for doing something exciting and scoring four runs for his team. Absolutely absurd. In contrast, the NFL lets Justin Jefferson do the griddy every time he scores and really show off his personality. Baseball needs to start promoting their players better and do the same. Bat flips to the sky and pitchers screaming their heads off after a 3rd out strikeout? Yes, please.
Even if those unwritten rules erode, players become known, and fans are ready to put their butts in seats and couches to see it, there is the final issue… REGIONAL BLACKOUTS. This might be the most egregious offense of all. To watch an MLB game, you must do one of three things. One, purchase cable in your region and spend well over 100 dollars on channels you don’t need or care about. Two, purchase MLB TV and hope you aren’t located in a market for whomever you are trying to watch (Iowa blocks Twins, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Royals and Cardinals by the way). Three, pay a king’s ransom in purchasing a ticket, food, parking, etc. to attend a game in person. This option is becoming insanely expensive when it does not need to be. MLB makes the bulk of its money off media rights (hence the regional black outs forcing the purchasing of cable) and attendance becomes less important each year. In fact, attendance has dropped every year since 2012, but revenue has been steady. With inflation, attending a game as a family of four is becoming almost impossible, which means fans need to be able to watch on TV. This however, is incredibly difficult and expensive as well. I think the solution could be moving on from the regional markets and leaning into a streaming service with no blackouts. This would involve having different priced packages for how many teams you want to follow or if you want ads or not. There could be single, 10, 20, and 30 team packages.
By moving away from some of the unwritten rules that dampen a player’s personality, more stars worth watching will begin to emerge. If MLB can combine that with making the game easier to access and view, the youth will be drawn in by these exciting and vibrant players. This will result in kids becoming engaged with baseball at a young age and hopefully herald in a new age of baseball popularity. MLB needs to make the first move however, and I don’t see them moving on from the regional sports networks that have been an absolute cash cow for them.

For the Twins to get back into the playoffs in 2023, they will need a host of elements to go well. Not only will the Twins require significantly better health in 2023 — they will also need some players to make leaps in the new year. Whether it’s younger established players or prospects, the Twins need big improvements from some young players to be a successful team. I’ve put together a list of players I think can take those steps to be impact players in 2023.
Joe Ryan
Since the Twins acquired Joe Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 trade deadline, he has impressed, and at times, dominated. In 32 starts, he has pitched 173.2 innings with an ERA of 3.63 and a FIP of 3.90. He has had a 25.7% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. These are all very good numbers for a guy coming off of his rookie year, and he would slot into just about any rotation in baseball. Ryan isn’t a typical breakout candidate due to his early success, but I believe at 26 years old, he has the ability to develop into more of a frontline starter and break out as a true star.  
In 2022, Ryan was much worse after a tough bout with Covid-19. Per Fangraphs, in starts before his long absence due to the virus, Ryan had a 2.25 ERA and a 3.25 FIP, but in starts after he came back, he had a 4.08 ERA and 4.30 FIP. Essentially, before his 3-week Covid absence, he was the frontline starter the Twins needed him to be, and after, he was a back-end of the rotation starter. Hopefully, once fully recovered in 2023, we can see Ryan lead the rotation and be a frontline starter.  
Beyond his mediocre numbers after his Covid-19 absence, Ryan’s performance against right-handed hitters in 2022 surprised me. I expected him to be a typical pitcher who performs better against same-sided batters. In the minors, Ryan had typical splits, where he was better against righties than lefties, but that was not the case in 2022. Against right-handed batters in 2022, Ryan threw fewer fastballs and more sliders. But his fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball in 2022 based on Baseball Savant’s run value metric, while his slider was well below average. For Ryan to become a frontline starter, he will need to improve his performance against right-handed batters, by either improving his slider or throwing fewer sliders against right-handed batters. If either of those strategies is effective and he can return to top physical shape, Ryan can be the Twins best starting pitcher (as the roster is currently constructed) and possibly become the frontline starter the Twins need in 2023.
Jovani Moran
Almost every number available shows that Jovani Moran is a really good relief pitcher who is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins from Opening Day forward. From his 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022 for the Twins in 40.2 innings, to his 11.95 K/9, Twins fans should be excited for him to join the fold more in 2023. While his numbers holistically are awesome, he does walk a ton of batters. However, he limits home runs and strikes out enough hitters that the walks have rarely haunted him at any level, and his overall numbers should continue to be strong in 2023.
While Moran has been extremely stingy against both righties and lefties, as a 2-pitch pitcher who relies a ton on nasty changeup, he has reverse splits, meaning he is better against right-handed batters than lefties. Because of this, he would benefit if the Twins add an additional left-handed reliever, so if Caleb Thielbar is unavailable, he doesn’t have to be the guy to just come in against lefties. Instead, he should be used in other high leverage situations, whether it’s an 8th inning in a 1- run game, or if there are guys on second and third and one out. If the Twins are going to hunt any matchups for Moran, they should seek right-handed hitters in 2023. Facing primarily righties will further improve his numbers and make him a weapon in a bullpen that could be the best in years for the Twins.
               
Alex Kirilloff
Kirilloff has unfortunately been on these types of lists for 3 years. The Twins expected that in 2021, once they blatantly manipulated his service time, he could come in and be a star left fielder every day for years to come. That expectation was reasonable at the time. In 2018, he was the Twins Minor League Player of the Year, and his strong performances continued in 2019 during his first taste of the upper minors at AA. He had wrist problems flare up for the first time in 2019, but after a strong performance at the Twins alternate site in 2020, which they believed warranted a rare playoff Major League Baseball debut, it was time for the global top 20 prospect to be an impact player for the Twins.
That has not yet happened for Kirilloff as his wrist has bogged him down. Over the past two seasons, Twins fans at times saw him hit the ball hard and really be the hitter prospect analysts promised us, but far more often his wrist left him sidelined, or he at least performed at a subpar level. In 2021, his batted ball data indicated that he would start seeing a lot of hits and extra base hits with a .544 xSLG, but he didn’t play enough for those results to come, only playing 59 games for the Twins. In 2022, he was bad in the MLB, but at AAA he showed that a great hitter is in there, with a 1.106 OPS. There even was a stretch with the Twins from July 2nd to July 23rd when he posted a 157 wRC+, making him a 57% above average hitter. During that stretch, it seemed that he was finally coming along, especially when he went 6 for 13 with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs, in what seemed like a pivotal series against the White Sox. Soon after, he fell off a cliff and didn’t play another game in the majors for the Twins in 2022.
Wrists are tricky and sometimes hitters never get back to their best due to a wrist injury. That could be the unfortunate reality for Kirilloff. But if the new medical staff can help him navigate the wrist problem, he can be a huge bat in the middle of the lineup, hitting for extra bases and average, and could even be the best left-handed hitter in the Twins lineup.
Ryan Jeffers
When the Twins drafted Ryan Jeffers and signed him above slot value, he was seen as a player who would be a really good power hitter, but he likely would have to move off catcher due to his defense. Thus far, he has been a very solid defensive catcher, but he has not yet tapped into the bat that the Twins thought they were getting. In 2022, Jeffers was an above average pitch framer, who handled the staff well, and a well below average hitter, with a wRC+ of 87, making him 13% below average. If he can tap into more power, which prospect analysts believed he had, he can be a real asset for the Twins in 2023. If the Twins can get above average offensive production from catcher, that’s a huge advantage on the competition, when most catchers are their team’s worst hitters. We saw that when Mitch Garver had a monstrous season in 2019, and when the Twins had AJ Pierzynski and Joe Mauer in the 2000s.
The most obvious way for him to put up better offensive numbers is for him to play almost every game when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. If that’s around 40-50 games, he’ll be in a great position to succeed, especially if he can even slightly improve against right-handed pitchers. While Christian Vázquez has been better against lefties than righties, he hasn’t been nearly as good over his career as Jeffers has been. Against lefties, Jeffers has crushed, with a wRC+ of 125, which is really good for anybody, but especially for a catcher. Hopefully, he can thrive getting more of those platoon matchups while continuing to be a very good defensive catcher. If he does, the Twins could have a big offensive advantage at catcher, making their lineup dangerous enough to really contend for a division title.

In my previous piece I talked about how Alex Kirilloff may fit into the Minnesota Twins’ long term plans and what his outlook could be in the Major Leagues. For this article I want to look at the Twins other touted corner outfield prospect, one who has spent much of his professional career being compared to Kirilloff; Trevor Larnach. 
Trevor Larnach is another player the Twins likely view as a core piece as they build for 2023 and beyond. Making a name for himself for his refined approach and raw power, Larnach found himself a top 50 prospect in all of baseball and as high as no. 34 on Fangraphs; with some sites ranking him even higher than Alex Kirilloff. It took Larnach only 183 minor league games to get called up to the Majors in 2021 where he showed flashes of that power and developed approach before injury issues started to affect his production; he was ultimately sent down to AAA. 2022 was a similar story for Larnach as he once again had some very encouraging moments before an abdominal injury ended his season in late June. 
As stated in my previous piece, injuries have a high variance and almost no predictability so I won’t spend much time on them for a future outlook of a player. Although they have been present in Larnach’s career so far their unstable nature offers little help if you are trying to guess a player’s future. 
Between 2021 and 2022 Larnach has played almost a full season of games, 130 to be exact. It’s not a huge sample but more to work with than some other Twins prospects, so let’s see what we can find when we dig into it. Through 481 plate appearances Larnach is slashing .226/.316/.371 with 12 home runs, 46 RBI, 95 wRC+ and a 1.7 fWAR. Nothing to brag about but solid production to this point. 
I probably should’ve addressed the title of the article by now but I tend to tangent. In my opinion, Trevor Larnach has a career outlook very similar to Joey Gallo, who the Twins just recently signed. While not as extreme of a three true outcome player, I think there are undeniable parallels in their games that we cannot ignore. 
 
Let’s compare some numbers shall we? 
 
Larnach: .226/.316/.371, 10.2% BB%, 33.5% K%, 95 wRC+, 12 DRS/1,000 innings, 2.1 fWAR/162
Gallo: .199/.325/.469, 14.8% BB%, 37.3% K%, 110 wRC+, 10 DRS/ 1,000 innings  3.2 fWAR/162 
It’s not a perfect match on the surface but when we dig a little deeper the numbers get even more similar. 
 
Batted ball data (per Statcast)
 
Larnach: 116 MPH Max exit velocity, 90.0 avg EV, 42.2% hard hit%, 35.4 SwSp% (ball with a batted launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees) 
Gallo: 117.5 MPH Max exit velocity, 92.5 avg EV, 49.1% hard hit%, 33.3 SwSp%
 
But wait there’s more! Let’s look at their plate discipline numbers:
 
Larnach: 62.3% Z-Swing%, 73.1 Z-Contact%, 25.1 Chase%, 31.7% Chase Contact%, 43.0% Swing%, 39.4% Whiff%
Gallo: 69.3% Z-Swing, 67.5% Z-Contact, 24.8% Chase%, 37.1% Chase Contact%, 45.0% Swing%, 41.2% Whiff% 
 
It’s important to remember that we are still comparing a very small sample of Trevor Larnach to a very large sample of Joey Gallo so in a year or two this could look ridiculous. However, that being said, when I see the career numbers of both Gallo and Larnach they look like very similar players. They both have tremendous raw power combined with good plate discipline and they both are extremely prone to swing and miss. While Larnach has yet to prove he is capable of batted balls turning into extra base hits (.371 career SLG), he has shown in his young career he consistently finds the barrel and hits the ball hard when he does make contact. Larnach is also a considerably worse athlete than Gallo and is unlikely to provide the defensive or base running upside that Gallo does. However, Larnach is, as traditionalists like to say, a more “pure hitter” than Gallo. His pull% 6.1% lower than Gallo’s and his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .331; Joey Gallo’s career BABIP is .257 making it likely that Larnach will hit for a much higher average. 
It may not be a perfect one for one comparison between two players, but I think there are enough similarities in Trevor Larnach’s game to Joey Gallo’s that it was noteworthy. I doubt Larnach will ever reach the extremes that Gallo has normalized in his career so if you are not a fan of Gallo I wouldn’t worry too much, I believe there are aspects of Larnach’s play that will prevent him from reaching those anomic heights. What do you think of Trevor Larnach? Is my comparison accurate or am I way off base on this one? Let me know what you think.