Chembry

Bad news all around... I don't know if many of you heard or saw quotes from Tom Pohlad after his media scrum. Gleeman and the Geek said on their podcast that the Twins made a competitive offer to Framber Valdez. So much so that apparently the Twins thought they had a ~20-30% chance to land him. In the media scrum, someone asked (I am paraphrasing a bit) "Since they made a competitive offer to Valdez, does that mean they would be willing to take on a larger contract through trade?" Tom's answer was "100%, 100%" I am not advocating that the Twins go out an make a trade or sign a FA, but seems like the Twins are still looking to make a move. Falvey wasn't willing to move prospects, but maybe Zoll will. As others mentioned, the only free agents available that are somewhat worthwhile are Littell or Giolito. Some potential trade candidates (names I have seen listed as candidates): Luis Severino (2yr/$47M remaining), Mitch Keller (3yr/$55.7M remaining), Kodai Senga (2yr/$30M, $15M club option for '28), Brady Singer (1yr/$12.75M remaining), Kyle Freeland (1yr/$16M, $17M player option for '27 if reaches 170 IP in 2026), Sandy Alcantra (1yr/$17.3M, $21M club option for '27 with $2M buyout), Eury Perez (arbitration eligible through 2029), Drew Rasmussen (1yr/$5.75M, $8M club option for 2027 with $500K buyout, 2026 contract includes performance incentives of up to an additional $1.5M for games started), Kris Bubic (1yr/$6.15M) The cost to get some of those named above would be extraordinarily high, but others may not cost that much in prospect capital. None of them make up for the loss of Lopez. Again, I am not advocating for a trade or signing, but if the Twins decide to make a move, there are options.

Lowe just got a minor league deal with the Reds. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/reds-sign-nathaniel-lowe.html

I will say that $10M was stated after the Rogers signing. But I am onboard with everything you just said.

The $10M came from a podcast where Theo Tollefson stated he was hearing they had about $10M left to spend. That was right after Falvey left.

It’s definitely a display of the kind of advantage only a few teams have access to. I understand your point and the signal it would send to the league, but I just can’t bring myself to that level…I would if I think it would spur any kind of change. I just don’t think it will.

Dodgers announced today that they are resigning Evan Phillips to a 1yr/$6.5M deal. Normally that wouldn't be news, but Phillips is recovering from TJ surgery. A normal timetable would put a return around September 1st. He is shooting for a late July/August return. In all reality, the Dodgers are paying him $6.5M to pitch 15-20g in the regular season and then the postseason. The Dodgers just print money. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/dodgers-re-sign-evan-phillips-dfa-ben-rortvedt.html If you are wondering about Ben Rortvedt, the Dodgers just reclaimed Rortvedt last Friday (06Feb) after the Reds DFA'd Rortvedt to make room for Eugenio Suarez.. The Dodgers DFA'd Ben Rortvedt as the corresponding move for the Evan Phillips signing.

Phillies signed Genesis Cabrerra to a minor league deal in January

No- the Twins resigned him to a 2 year minor league deal. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/04/twins-sign-matt-canterino-to-two-year-minor-league-deal.html#:~:text=The Twins re-signed Matt,during Spring Training%2C last week.

If you are ever at Target Field and see someone wearing a Matt Canterino Jersey, it will likely be me. I got a team issued jersey from a jersey grab bag. I was pleasantly surprised.

@Nick Nelson One small clarification. Shelby Miller had surgery to repair his UCL and flexor tendon. He will miss all of 2026. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/shelby-miller-undergoes-elbow-surgery.html

I don't think most here listen to MLB reporters like Rosenthall, Pasan, etc... ESPN reported that the Twins were in on Valdez. That's a national outlet. They aren't going to report if the Twins just checked in...Darren Wolfson also said the Twins were "heavily" involved in Framber Valdez. On the Freddy Peralta front, I don't know how deep the Twin/Brewers got in their discussions. I did hear (I can't remember where) that the Twins/Brewers were discussing player packages. That's not just "checking in". Now we may not have wanted to part with what the Brewers were asking for, but there was genuine interest from the Twins.

I agree Lee isn't great defensively, but by both major fielding metrics (DRS/OAA), Lee was better than Correa last year. Now it's a cumulative statistic, so Lee may have been as bad as Correa by the time he reached the same sample size. DRS (Fielding Bible): Lee -8 DRS, Correa -11 DRS OAA (Baseball Savant): Lee -1 OAA, Correa -2 OAA I do also want address Keaschall's defense. The consensus belief is that Keaschall's defense is "terrible", but defensive metrics don't bear that out. Fielding Bible rated his DRS at +1, while Baseball Savant rated OAA at -2. That is closer to average than "terrible". Yes, his arm strength wasn't great coming off of TJ surgery and that was the vast majority of his problem last year. His arm strength is only going to get better. If Keascahll plays average defense, he will be a significant asset to this team for many years.

Theo Tollefson stated on a recent podcast that based on what he is hearing, the Twins still have $10M more in the budget and maybe more for the right move. It’s also stated in this article from a few days ago saying there is still room in the budget and Zoll is still looking to add. https://www.mlb.com/news/jeremy-zoll-still-looking-to-improve-twins-roster

Dasan Hill was named by Baseball America as one who just missed their top 100. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/20-mlb-prospects-who-just-missed-the-2026-top-100/

I was coming here to say the same thing! I am guessing right now that someone will jump the line to get him. I hope the Twins do it. I don't care if he is LH. His ERA+ was 131 over the last two years. Plus, still under control through 2027 at a reasonable rate.

For clarity, I don't view Caratini as blocking any addition of Lowe (or any other FA), I just don't think the Twins will pursue another FA bat. Even though I think we should try to add another bat. Lowe makes sense.

Wallner had a 38% k rate in 2022, which was a very small sample size (18g, 65PA). He since hasn't been that high. That rate decreased significantly in 2025 down to 29%. Wallner has had a higher OBP than Larnach in every year, except 2025. Wallner has historically been a better hitter: Year OBP OPS+ Wallner Larnach Wallner Larnach 2022 0.323 0.306 103 102 2023 0.37 0.311 138 97 2024 0.372 0.338 149 116 2025 0.311 0.323 110 95

Doc- You and I have been on the Nathaniel Lowe train for a while. I like him better than Bell, who should strictly be a DH. Lowe gives you a solid MLB bat (2022 Silver Slugger and career 116 OPS+) and gold glove caliber 1B defense (GG in '23 and GG finalist in '24). I do think adding Lowe makes sense in all the ways you laid out, and I don't think it would even take $7M at this point. MLBTR writers thought a 1y/$5M would get it done. However, I think that ship sailed with the Caratini signing. I also believe Caratini/Clemens will be getting the backup reps at 1B. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't be looking to upgrade, because they should. I do think the biggest move the Twins need to make is to trade a LHH OF. Moving Larnach makes the most sense. I will go as far as saying, I really don't care what the return for Larnach is at this point. By removing him, we do lose an average MLB bat, but gain so much more in defense and lineup flexibility. Assume we trade Larnach, here is what I see as the position player roster, without an additional signing: C: Jeffers, Caratini IF: Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Kreidler or Gray OF: Buxton, Martin, Wallner, Roden UTIL: Clemens, Wagaman Personally I like Gray over Kreidler. Gray can play every IF position at a league average level (small sample sizes), but is a significant upgrade offensively over Kreidler. OF: I just listened to Bobby Nightengale on a Gleeman and the Geek podcast and the Twins believe Roden can back up Buxton in CF and at least plays a competent CF. Obviously, you don't want Roden there on a daily basis. As much as Martin improved in LF last year, you would hope some of that would also translate to CF, so he could also be a potential back up option. If Buxton gets hurt, you are probably calling up ERod or Jenkins. We need to pay attention in ST to see who is getting reps in CF and when. My guess is Roden and Martin will get a decent share of time in CF at ST. If the Twins feel confident in Roden or Martin as a CF backup, than that leaves Outman off the roster, which would be music to most fans ears. UTIL: Both Clemens and Wagaman can play multiple positions. Clemens can play anywhere in the dirt (minus SS) and COF. Wagaman can play CIF or COF and mashes lefties. According to fielding bible, he was competent (-1 DRS) in 106 innings in LF last year. That is why I believe he is on the roster. If we do upgrade the roster with another hitter, Wagaman is the odd man out.

Seven Twins are playing in the WBC: Buxton, Ryan- USA Lopez- Venezuela Taj Bradley- Mexico Matt Bowman- Israel Dan Altavilla- Italy Luis Quinones- Puerto Rico Caratini was going to play for Puerto Rico but didn’t get insurance clearance to play. This also happened to Correa, Lindor, Berrios, Emilio Pagan, and Alexis Diaz

Ownership has indicated there is still more room in the budget to add and Zoll is looking to do so. This article was from Monday, after Falvey’s departure: https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/jeremy-zoll-still-looking-to-improve-twins-roster

Skubal won his arbitration hearing and will make $32M this year. He is definitely worth it, but this decision has ranging impacts beyond him. Boras and Skubal exploited a clause in the CBA that states a player with 5+ years of service time can compare themselves to open market free agents and not prior arbitration precedent. My understanding is that this clause has been present in the CBA for some time, but Skubal is the only person to use it. Given his 2 consecutive Cy Young awards, Boras and Skubal shot for the moon and won. Has long ranging impacts on the likes of Skenes, Hunter Brown, Woo, etc... More than likely means the Pirates trade Skenes before his final year of arbitration. Or any small to mid market team that has a top tier starter in their last year of arbitration for that matter. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/tarik-skubal-wins-arbitration-hearing-tigers.html

What if the Twins signed Gallen and traded Ryan? Probably would have to trade Larnach as well...but could be doable. That way most fans get what they want without a huge drop off in performance, even though Gallen had a down 2025.

Jeffers is a Boras client, so the chance for an extension at this point is very low. Boras generally encourages his clients to reach free agency to maximize their value. Personally, I don't think an extension was ever in the cards for Jeffers. That doesn't preclude the Twins from signing him as a free agent, but again the odds will be low of resigning Jeffers. For this year, it's really all speculation as to what they will do if they are or aren't in contention. If they aren't, we all assume they will trade Jeffers at the deadline. If they are, naturally we would assume they keep Jeffers and let him walk. That's a gamble...If we hold on to Jeffers and don't make the playoffs (odds are low), we let him walk for nothing. I don't see the Twins extending a qualifying offer to Jeffers. This year the number was $22M.

Bell can’t be traded until June 15th since he signed as a free agent. I think that can be waived if the player gives consent, but not 100% sure on that.

The plan for Jeffers has been stated many times. First by Falvey, then Shelton and Jeffers himself. I doubt it has changed after Falvey left. The plan is to have Jeffers catch 100+ games this year. Jeffers stated in this link that Shelton and the FO gave him a heads up on the Caratini signing and assured him his role isn’t changing. Jeremy Zoll was on Inside Twins today and essentially said the same thing. Caratini will be a backup catcher and get some time at 1B and DH.