Cody Christie

The Twins’ future looks brighter, after they won their first playoff series in two decades. A new wave of impact players are getting closer to the big leagues, and here is what Minnesota’s starting lineup might look like in four years. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA TODAY Sports A lot has changed for the Twins over the last calendar year, which impacts who projects to be in the team’s lineup in four years. The Twins traded away Luis Arraez, even though he looked like a core piece of the lineup for years to come. Minnesota also handed out the largest free-agent contract in team history, a move that will have long-term ramifications. Below, you will see Minnesota’s projected lineup and each player’s age during the 2027 campaign. Catcher: Ryan Jeffers (30) Entering last season, Jeffers’s stock was low enough for the Twins to sign veteran catcher Christian Vazquez. Jeffers responded in a big way, leading AL catchers in wRC+, and the Twins have been shopping Vázquez, along with other veteran players. In previous seasons, Jeffers was known as a strong pitch-framer with positive run totals. His framing was worth -3 runs and ranked in the 25th percentile in 2023, though. The Twins also added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster after a strong season at Triple A. By 2027, he has an excellent chance to serve in a regular backup catching role. It will be interesting to see if Jeffers can continue to build off his solid offensive season and take on more of a full-time catching role. First Base: Edouard Julien (28) The Twins have an influx of young infielders at multiple positions, which will force the team to make several decisions about players' future defensive homes. Julien has been a second baseman for most of his professional career, and he made strides on the defensive side of the ball throughout his rookie turn in MLB. However, he will continue to be a below-average defender, so the Twins will start playing him more regularly at first. In last year’s projection, Alex Kirilloff appeared to be part of the team’s long-term plan at first base, but his injury history makes it harder to include him in the 2027 lineup. Second Base: Royce Lewis (28) Minnesota will have an interesting defensive decision with the following three names in this lineup. All three have played shortstop for the majority of their professional careers, but age and injury history will eventually force them to move around. Lewis will enter the 2024 season as the team’s primary third baseman, after shifting to that position last year. In 416 2/3 innings at third, Lewis was worth 2 DRS and 2 OAA. He has a strong enough arm and is very athletic, so that he can shift to another defensive position later in his career. Shortstop: Carlos Correa (32) Correa was a Gold Glove finalist in 2023, even while battling plantar fasciitis. His OAA ranked in the 62nd percentile, and his arm strength ranked in the 74th percentile. According to SDI, Correa was the AL’s ninth-best shortstop with a -2.7 SDI in 2023. Will a 32-year-old Correa continue to be a viable option at the infield's most demanding position? Minnesota will have other, younger options to take his place at shortstop, but there is no perfect fit if age pushes Correa to third base. He will want to stay at a premium position for as long as possible, but his days as a shortstop will be coming to an end by 2027. Third Base: Brooks Lee (26) Lee is considered Minnesota’s second-ranked prospect, after finishing last season at Triple A. All three national top-100 lists ranked him in their top 45 entering last season, and he projects to rank higher entering 2024. He posted an .808 OPS with 39 doubles and 16 home runs in 125 games last season. Mostly, he’s played shortstop so far in his professional career, but many expect him to move to third base as he adds to his frame. Lee is on pace to make his big-league debut in 2024, and the Twins hope he is part of the team’s long-term core. Left Field: Emmanuel Rodriguez (24) In many organizations, Rodríguez would be the top-ranked prospect, because of his ability to impact the game on both sides of the ball. The Twins added him to the 40-man roster this winter, which puts him one step closer to making his big-league debut. He spent all of 2023 at High A, where he hit .240/.400/.463 with 38 extra-base hits and 92 walks in 99 games. Rodríguez has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the organization. Center Field: Walker Jenkins (22) The Twins selected Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he’s already considered one of baseball’s best prospects after a memorable pro debut. He hit .362/.417/.571, with 12 extra-base hits and six stolen bases in 26 games. There is some question about whether or not Jenkins can stick in center field, as he has slowed a bit while adding more muscle to his frame. Earlier this winter, I projected that Jenkins is on the fast track to the big leagues, with the potential to debut during the 2026 season. Right Field: Matt Wallner (29) Wallner is a prototypical right fielder, with a powerful left-handed swing and a cannon for an arm. Max Kepler has occupied right field for the Twins for seven years, but Wallner can take over right away if Kepler is traded this winter. The Forest Lake native showcased some strong offensive skills during his rookie season with a 139 OPS+, striking out 80 times in 76 games. Minnesota has depth in their corner outfield spots, so it will be interesting to see if the team includes Wallner or Rodríguez in a trade for starting pitching. Designated Hitter: Byron Buxton (33) The Twins are hopeful that Buxton’s most recent knee surgery puts him back on track to appear in the outfield. However, his lengthy injury history will make him a full-time DH in 2027. Last season, injuries limited him to DH duties, and he posted an OPS+ below 115 for the first time since 2018. Buxton is under contract through the 2028 season, so the Twins need to find a way for him to provide value to the club. Who do you think fits into the team’s 2027 lineup? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. PREVIOUS YEAR’S PREDICTIONS — 2024 Lineup — 2025 Lineup — 2026 Lineup View full article

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are teaming up in New York to form one of the best duos in baseball history. Can the Twins' top duo be considered among baseball’s best next season, too? Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Last week, the Yankees acquired Juan Soto in a blockbuster trade that will have long-term ramifications across the baseball landscape--even though Soto is only making a short-term home in the Bronx. Soto is one of baseball’s best young hitters and a future Hall of Famer. He is an on-base machine, and it’s scary to think what he will be able to do with Aaron Judge batting behind him. If both players stay healthy, they should be baseball’s best lineup duo, but there are other contenders. MLB.com ranked the top 10 lineup duos for the 2024 season, and the Twins didn’t crack their list or their honorable mentions, which stretched the ranking to the top 12. Outside the Yankees duo, other top pairs include Los Angeles’s Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (and now Shohei Ohtani); Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Matt Olson; and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Minnesota’s offense struggled through the first half of last season, but the team took positive strides in the season’s final months. So, who would be included in Minnesota’s best lineup duo, and how can they crack baseball’s top 10? Carlos Correa Correa is the most obvious pick to be included in the team’s top pairing. He’s coming off his worst statistical season, as his 94 OPS+ was 30 points below his career average. At the Winter Meetings, the Twins had positive reports about Correa’s progress with the plantar fasciitis that impacted him throughout the 2023 campaign. No surgery was required to address the injury, and Derek Falvey told reporters that Correa is “tracking really well” and “felt like he’s really turned a corner.” Rest and treatment can be sufficient to ameliorate this condition, and the Twins hope Correa returns to his previous form. He has been a dominant offensive player for multiple seasons in his career, with an OPS+ of 124 or higher in six of his nine seasons. In his first season with the Twins, Correa hit .291/.366/.467 with 24 doubles and 22 home runs. When fully healthy, he’s one of baseball’s best hitters. Bryon Buxton There were also positive reports at the Winter Meetings regarding Buxton and his recovery from offseason knee surgery. The star center fielder (?) is ready to start baseball activities, and is already further along than he was at the start of spring training last year. He has shown the ability to be an elite hitter in his career, but even those stretches have been marred by injury. In 2021, Buxton posted a 171 OPS+, including 19 home runs in 61 games. He started the 2022 All-Star Game in center field, after hitting 23 homers and posting an .834 OPS in the first half. There were multiple months during the 2022 season in which he had an OPS north of 1.000. Buxton has played fewer than 100 games in all but one season in his career, so it’s tough to include him in the team’s top tier. Royce Lewis Lewis returned from his second major knee surgery last season and was a spark plug for the Twins lineup. In 58 games, he hit .309/.372/.548, with seven doubles and 15 home runs. He set the team record with four grand slams in a single season, and he was the fastest player in MLB history to reach five career grand slams. It’s exciting to think of what he can mean to the middle of the team’s lineup, especially with the club’s struggles against left-handed pitching. Many evaluators doubted Lewis throughout his professional career, and now he will get a full season to continue to prove them wrong. Other Candidates A handful of other candidates could be included in the team’s top lineup double threat. Max Kepler posted a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, three triples, and 12 home runs in the second half. Minnesota is considering trading Kepler this winter, since he has just one remaining season of team control, so he probably doesn’t fit into this conversation. Edouard Julien was an on-base machine (.381 OBP) during his rookie campaign, adding 33 extra-base hits in 109 games to his healthy walk total. Does he have a chance to reach another offensive level? Alex Kirilloff and Jose Miranda were among the best hitting prospects to come through the Twins organization over the last decade. If they can stay healthy, both can be offensive threats. Many projection systems will pair Correa and Lewis as the Twins' top lineup duo for 2024. This pair probably won’t rank with the big names mentioned above, but they can stand among baseball’s top 10. The Twins must pass tandems like San Diego’s Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., New York’s Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, or Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette. Those pairs are potent, but the Twins’ dynamic duo can catch them. Who do you think will be Minnesota’s best two hitters next season? Can the Twins have a top-10-ranked duo? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Traditionally, teams have valued back-end starters who can consistently eat innings. As the league changes the way it deploys pitching staffs, though, that breed is dying. How has this trend impacted the Twins? Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports So far this winter, Minnesota fans have watched the St. Louis Cardinals collect former Twins starters at an incredible rate. Sonny Gray, last year’s runner-up for the AL Cy Young, is the one who garnered the most attention, but let’s look at the team’s other two additions. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn signed one-year deals for a combined $24 million, to slot into the back of St. Louis’s rotation. The Cardinals lacked starting pitching depth last season, and it has been the biggest part of their offseason blueprint. However, they might be collecting an endangered species of pitcher. Last week, Chad Jennings of The Athletic wrote about the innings eater, defining them as “a back-end starting pitcher who rarely dominates but regularly pitches deep into games.” He described how starters are encouraged to maximize their effort, which minimizes how often they can go through a lineup. He further defined an innings eater as a pitcher who throws at least 180 innings with an ERA+ of 100 or worse. Gibson and Lynn met these criteria last season, and many projections will point to them compiling similar numbers next season. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has a reputation for using a quick hook with his starting pitchers, but that wasn’t the case in 2023. Minnesota starters finished with the fourth-most innings pitched (895) and were only 6 2/3 innings from the top spot. Some of Baldelli’s reputation is tied to the type of starting pitchers who have been on his roster in recent seasons. The Twins front office hasn’t valued innings eaters highly, because they understand that starters typically perform worse when they face a lineup for a third time. Let’s examine recent Twins teams to see which players were closest to fitting the innings eater criteria outlined above. Last season, Joe Ryan was the closest thing to an innings-eating pitcher for the Twins. In 2023, he threw 161 2/3 innings with a 95 ERA+, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of his season. He was a borderline All-Star in the first half, with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 IP. His second-half numbers suffered (6.09 ERA, 1.48 WHIP), as Ryan attempted to pitch through a groin injury. Minnesota has higher hopes for him in 2024, and there’s no reason to put him into the innings eater category. The 2022 Twins didn’t have a pitcher throw more than 147 innings. Dylan Bundy pitched the second-most innings on the team (140) behind Ryan, and had an 80 ERA+. Minnesota had to continue using him, because there weren’t any other options in the season’s second half. Bundy didn’t have any major-league offers last winter and signed a minor-league deal with the Mets in March. He’d only make six appearances for their Triple-A affiliate, and his professional career is probably over. Minnesota’s pitching staff was a mess during the 2021 season, with the front office signing J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker to fill what they hoped would be innings-eater roles. Instead, Shoemaker posted a 65 ERA+ in 60 1/3 innings, before being demoted to Triple-A. Happ pitched nearly 100 innings with a 63 ERA+ and was moved to St. Louis at the trade deadline. Only three Twins pitchers tossed over 100 innings (Jose Berríos, Michael Pineda, and Kenta Maeda), and none fit into the innings eater category. In 2020, the shortened season made it hard to evaluate which pitchers were used as innings eaters. The Twins had a pair of pitchers close to meeting the innings eater criteria during the 2019 season. Martín Pérez posted an 89 ERA+ in 165 1/3 innings, while the aforementioned Gibson threw 160 innings with a 94 ERA+ in his final season with the Twins. Innings eaters haven’t been a priority for this front office. They value pitchers making it through the early innings and turning the game over to the bullpen for the middle frames. Since Derek Falvey took over the front office (2017), there have only been six times when a starting pitcher threw more than 180 innings in one season, and none had an ERA+ below 100. (Obviously, though, the truncation of 2020 and the hangover effect on pitcher workloads league-wide in 2021 contributed to that.) The innings eater has been dead in Minnesota for quite some time. Will teams continue to value pitchers who soak up innings without being above-average? Can the Twins add someone to fit this role for 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The offseason is just starting, but the Twins have one of baseball’s best rosters heading into the winter. Here is how the 26-man roster would shake out if the season started today. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports Every front office must take stock of their roster entering the offseason, to identify holes and decide on a team’s most pressing needs. The Twins saw an influx of young talent during the 2023 season, which helps in making long-term roster decisions. In previous years, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been very patient when making offseason moves, so there will be some fluidity with the names listed below in the coming months. So, which players would crack the team’s Opening Day roster if the season started today? Catchers (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers Minnesota loves using a two-catcher rotation during the regular season, so players are getting regular rest at baseball’s most demanding defensive position. Jeffers had a tremendous season at the plate, leading all catchers in wRC+. Behind the plate, he has been known for his framing, but he dropped from the 70th percentile in 2022 to the 25th percentile last season. At the Winter Meetings, Falvey mentioned Vázquez among four veterans the Twins are shopping this offseason. Vázquez struggled offensively last season with a 65 OPS+ but continued to rank well defensively. He finished the season ranked fourth in SDI and ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in Framing and Blocks Above Average. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if Vázquez were traded or one of the starters was injured. Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco This position group has depth at multiple positions and a strong combination of veterans and young pieces. The team reported that Correa is progressing well in his offseason routine, after having plantar fasciitis ruin his 2023 season. Kirilloff has yet to resume hitting following surgery in October to remove a bursa sac from his right shoulder, so he is the most significant question mark in this group. Farmer and Polanco are short-term pieces the team could trade this winter, with cheaper options available to take their place on the roster. Jose Miranda is another name fans should remember in the infield mix. His 2023 was an injury-marred disaster, but he is further along in his rehab than Kirilloff. Will the Twins use the two former top prospects in a platoon role at first base? Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner Minnesota’s outfield situation isn’t as straightforward, with injury question marks and Michael A. Taylor a free agent. Buxton is making strides after an offseason knee procedure, and the team sounds more optimistic about the possibility of him returning to center field next season. Like the other veterans mentioned above, Kepler is on the trade market with one year remaining of team control. He had a terrific second half, posting a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs, and it might be time for the team to maximize his trade value. Castro and Gordon will probably see time in center field, and Wallner will get his first chance at a full-time role. The Twins will also rely on other outfielders on the 40-man roster, like Trevor Larnach and Austin Martin. Rotation (5): Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland The Twins are in a better spot with their starting rotation at this point in the offseason than any other Twins team in recent memory. There were years in the Target Field era when it felt like the club had Jose Berrios and four rotational openings. Minnesota will be attempting to fill the holes left by the free-agent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery last season and will take on a role similar to that of Maeda in 2023. Ryan and Ober made positive strides last season, but there remain areas where they can become more consistent. Varland is penciled into the fifth spot in the rotation, but the team is shopping for other options on the trade market, which would push him to St. Paul to start the year. Simeon Woods Richardson is also on the 40-man roster, but he struggled at Triple-A last season and was nearly five years younger than the competition at that level. He could be asked to make starts for the Twins next season and just turned 23 years old in September. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Kody Funderburk, Jordan Balazovic, Jorge Alcala, Cole Sands Minnesota’s front office has tended not to spend money on bullpen options. Instead, they rely on internal options and minor-league pickups. Durán has been one of baseball’s best relievers since entering a late-inning role in 2022. The trio of Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar have shown the ability to fit into different setup roles, and they will have more responsibility in 2024. Funderburk had a tremendous debut and will be asked to be the bullpen’s second lefty, behind Thielbar. Alcalá has been pitching well in the winter leagues and can be an x-factor. Balazovic is out of options, so he must make the team or be passed through waivers. Sands and Josh Winder have one option remaining, so they will fight for one of the bullpens final spots. Matt Canterino is a dark horse option as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The Twins used 29 pitchers last season, so multiple relievers will make the trip back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Shohei Ohtani agreed to the largest contract in North American sports history on Saturday. With the biggest domino falling, how will MLB’s offseason play out, and how does that impact the Twins? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports After weeks of rumors and speculation, Shohei Ohtani took to his own Instagram account to announce that he would sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers 10 years and a record total of $700 million. With Ohtani off the board, other moves can start happening, especially for the teams who missed out on the two-way superstar. Here are some expected moves in the weeks ahead, and some discussion of how each will affect the Twins. 1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Signs Yamamoto is a 25-year-old pitching phenom from Japan who will likely get the second-largest contract handed out this winter. As many as seven teams have shown interest in Yamamoto, and he’s expected to sign for over $200 million. His Japanese club posted him on Nov. 21, and there is a 45-day window for him to agree to terms with an MLB team. That window runs out on Jan. 4, but many teams like to take a business break around the holidays. Will Yamamoto be off the board before Christmas? Do the Dodgers push for him to join Ohtani, or will the New York teams win the bidding war? 2. Other Big Free Agents Come Off the Board Outside of Yamamoto, other high-priced free agents are expected to sign now that Ohtani has picked his team. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the top remaining free-agent starters. Snell was the NL Cy Young winner after going 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA over his final 23 starts. Montgomery helped pitch Texas to a World Series title, and his postseason performance might have increased his value (2.90 ERA in six games). According to MLB Trade Rumors, Snell is projected to get seven years, $200 million, while Montgomery is predicted to get six years, $150 million. Snell rejected the qualifying offer from the Padres, so he has draft pick compensation tied to a team signing him. Montgomery was traded last season, so the Rangers couldn’t make him a qualifying offer. On the hitter side, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman are the highest-ranked free agents. Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP, had a resurgent season in Chicago. He batted .307/.356/.525, with 29 doubles and 26 home runs in 130 games. Chapman is an elite defender at third base and posted a 108 OPS+ last season in Toronto. His offensive output has dipped over the last three seasons, but he should be able to cash in, with few other third-base options on the market. MLB Trade Rumors projected Bellinger to get 12 years and $264 million, with Chapman predicted to get six years, $150 million. Teams who missed out on Ohtani can open their checkbooks for any of these options. 3. Lower-Tier Free Agents Start to Sign Many big-market teams will be focused on the names listed above, and lower-tier free agents must wait for the more prominent names to sign to set the market. Some teams will also offer more money to lower-tier free agents as the supply dwindles. Last season, the Twins identified Christian Vázquez early in the offseason and offered him a third year, since he had multiple two-year proposals on the table. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn were lower-ranked starting pitcher options, but the Cardinals needed pitching and offered them a little more to sign early. Teams with specific needs will start looking at the free agent cost and weigh it against trading for a player. 4. Teams Turn to Trade Options At MLB’s Winter Meetings, Derek Falvey spoke about the Twins shopping four veteran players (Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Vázquez). He told reporters, “I think we’re still in that early feeling-out phase.” Multiple national writers have reported that there is interest in Minnesota’s trade pieces. Still, fans will need to be patient with the front office, since that has been their style in previous offseasons. "We're always trying to be opportunistic, think of where a trade matches, where there might be opportunities to invest in a way that will help us get better," Falvey said. "We've always kind of been a team that waits out some of the market, in some spaces, and waits to see how things shake out to some degree. The team isn't made at the end of the Winter Meetings, right? This has never been a key marker for me personally or for us in general." Falvey’s rosters are never finalized, with the front office always looking to improve. In 2022, the Twins waited until the eve of Opening Day to trade Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Brayan Medina. Twins fans probably want to know how the roster will look for Opening Day, but this front office has continued to find ways to add pieces throughout the offseason. Ohtani signing is the first domino, and now MLB’s offseason can start moving for the rest of the baseball world. Who will be the next free agent to sign? Which veterans will the Twins trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s Winter Meetings officially wrapped up on Wednesday, and there was plenty to discuss in Nashville. What’s next for the Twins, and what other news and notes came out of the Country Music Capital of the World? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Teams packed up in Nashville and headed home yesterday, but the rumor mill continues to swirl about the Twins and other teams across the baseball landscape. The Winter Meetings allow teams to set the groundwork for free-agent signings and potential trades, which will unfold quickly over the next two weeks. Minnesota tends to be patient when making their offseason moves, and they're sticking to that strategy so far this winter. Here are some trending storylines that will impact the Twins’ plans. Multiple Teams Interested in Michael A. Taylor Taylor had a career year with the Twins at age 32. He hit a career-high 21 home runs and posted his highest OPS+ (94) since 2017. Taylor’s defense continues to be among baseball’s best, with 5 Defensive Runs Saved and 8 Outs Above Average. The Red Sox traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees earlier this week, opening a spot in the Boston outfield. Jon Morosi reported that the Red Sox, Reds, Blue Jays, and Mets are rumored to be interested in Taylor, which is intriguing, since some of these clubs are big-market teams with money to spend. Taylor seemed likely to sign a one-year contract, but a team might have to offer a two-year pact to beat out other interested teams. Notably absent from the list of teams engaged, at least in that report, are the Twins. Marlins Open to Trading Young Pitching Last winter, the Twins traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez, in a deal that worked well for both clubs. Miami continues to have a plethora of young starting pitching, and Jon Heyman reported that the Marlins are listening to trade talk on pitchers Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers. Do the Twins think they can help any of these pitchers take the next step, as they did with López last season? Luzardo is under team control through 2026 and posted a 3.58 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 2023. Garrett isn't even arbitration-eligible yet, and can’t become a free agent until after 2028. Over the last two seasons, he has posted a 3.63 ERA, with a 246-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 247 2/3 innings. Cabrera is on the same free-agent timeline as Garrett, but would likely come at a lower cost than the other two names. He struggled with control, including 6.0 BB/9 in just under 100 innings last season. Injuries derailed Rogers in 2023, but he should be ready for next spring. Shohei Ohtani Decisions Looming Many teams are waiting to make their key moves until Ohtani, arguably the biggest free agent in MLB history, picks his destination. Jon Morosi reported that Ohtani is expected to make his decision by the end of the weekend. Some teams still rumored to be courting Ohtani include the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Giants, and Cubs. Following his signing, teams can focus on other free agents and trade options, which should help add some heat to the Hot Stove. Juan Soto Trade to Yankees is Official Juan Soto was the second-biggest name available this winter, but is still one year away from free agency. Wednesday night, the Yankees finalized a deal to land the extraordinary left-handed slugger and on-base machine. Two of New York’s top young pitchers, Michael King and Drew Thorpe, headline the haul for San Diego, with three others along for the ride and center fielder Trent Grisham also joining the Bronx Bombers. While You Were Sleeping... There were a couple of late-night moves that you may have missed. E-Rod Heading West Some Twins fans may have thought that left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez should be a target this offseason. He opted out of the remaining three years and $49 million on his contract with the Detroit Tigers, signed two years ago. According to reports, Rodriguez signed a four-year, $80-million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks that includes a vesting option for a fifth season and some incentives that could push the total value of the deal to about $100 million. Reds Sign Jeimer Candelario Long-time Tigers infielder Jeimer Candelario signed a three-year, $45-million contract with the Cincinnati Reds late on Wednesday night. After parts of six seasons in Motown, Candelario signed a one-year deal with the Nationals last year. He hit .258, with 30 doubles and 16 home runs in 99 games for Washington before he was dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline. He added nine doubles and six homers in 41 games on the North Side. Candelario will likely play both corner infield spots for the Reds. Spencer Steer, who had a tremendous rookie season in 2023, will find himself in left field most often. Christian Encarnacion-Strand will likely continue to get time at first base, but also do plenty of DHing. Do you think Taylor will get a multi-year deal? Can the Twins and Marlins agree on another trade for a starting pitcher? What team will sign Ohtani? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota is cutting back on payroll, making it even more critical for the team's star players to perform at a high level. Can they get Byron Buxton back on track to play center field in 2024? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Any positive news surrounding Byron Buxton’s health is a step in the right direction. This weekend, Derek Falvey told the Minneapolis Star-Tribune that he's “fully recovered from the surgery” he had earlier in the offseason with “no lingering effects.” He went on to say Buxton “looked good” in workouts with the team’s medical staff at Target Field. “Rehabilitation is ongoing, and completing that is Buxton’s next step," the story said. "The Twins feel he should be cleared to do some baseball-related activities by the end of the year.” Buxton couldn’t be a full participant at spring training last season, because of lingering knee issues from the previous season. The Twins hope this latest surgery can alleviate enough pain for him to return to center field. Minnesota utilized a different plan for Buxton in 2023 by having him begin the year as a full-time DH, with the hope that he’d be able to ease back into the outfield mix. His knee was never healthy enough to play in center field for the Twins, as his only outfield innings came in a Triple-A rehab appearance. Buxton may never again play 500 innings in center field, but getting him back to a part-time defensive role is critical to next season’s roster. Last season, Buxton was limited to 85 games, even with the team implementing such an aggressive and costly plan to keep him healthy. In 347 plate appearances, he hit .207/.294/.438 (.731) with 17 doubles and 17 home runs. In previous seasons, Buxton was able to return from injury and produce at a high level at the plate. The 2023 campaign was the first time he posted an OPS+ below 115 in five seasons. Buxton has only played over 100 games in one season since becoming a regular in 2016. Center field is one of the most significant needs for the Twins this winter, because the team can’t count on Buxton to be regularly available for the outfield. Last winter, they traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide insurance for Buxton. Taylor provided the team with his highest OPS+ since 2017, while being one of the league’s best defensive center fielders. Minnesota could attempt to re-sign Taylor and put him into a similar role, or the team could pursue other free-agent options like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader. Falvey and GM Thad Levine could also turn to internal options to take over the position. Austin Martin has been ranked as one of the team’s top prospects since he was acquired as part of the Jose Berrios trade. Signed as a shortstop, Martin has diversified his defensive profile as he gets closer to the big-league level, including over 200 innings in the outfield last year. Martin missed time last season with an elbow injury, but played well after returning. In 59 Triple-A games, he hit .263/.387/.405 (.791) with 11 doubles, six home runs and 16 steals. The Twins can also use other internal options to patrol center, including Willi Castro and Nick Gordon, but none of these options replicate what Buxton means to the Twins. Minnesota is a better team with Byron Buxton in the lineup. For his career, the Twins have a .545 winning percentage with Buxton starting and a .459 winning percentage when he is out. Their production is more robust, and their batting order deeper, with their franchise player on the field. Unfortunately, the Twins have played more games (686) without Buxton than with him (670) since he made his debut. The AL Central is expected to be one of baseball’s worst divisions again in 2024, with the Twins currently the favorites to win it. Minnesota found a way to win the division last season without Buxton performing at a high level, so there is a way for the team to repeat without him. However, when he's healthy, he has proven to be one of the game’s best players on both sides of the ball. Questions about Buxton’s health will follow him for the remainder of his career. The goal is to get him back to center field on a more regular basis, and the Twins hope this latest surgery is the one to put him back on track. How many games will Buxton play in center field next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Teams make questionable protection decisions every year leading into the Rule 5 Draft. Will the Twins regret leaving a Triple-A outfielder off their 40-man roster? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The Twins selected DaShawn Keirsey in the fourth round of the 2018 MLB Draft, from the University of Utah. In three collegiate seasons, he hit .334/.391/.473 (.865) with 42 doubles, 11 triples, and eight home runs. He played center field in college and showed an ability to steal bases. This skill set was enough to catch the attention of Twins scouts, and they used a relatively high pick (and an above-slot bonus) on him. In his pro debut, Keirsey posted a .798 OPS in 26 games for the Elizabethton Twins. It was a solid start to his career, but his college experience helped him succeed in a league where he was older than the average age of the competition. In 2019, Keirsey was limited to 36 games due to injury and struggled to find consistency at the plate. Minnesota hoped he could bounce back in 2020, but the pandemic canceled the minor league season. His 2021 season was also limited to fewer than 50 games because of multiple injuries. Most of his time that season was spent at High-A, where the 24-year-old was old for the level. He hit .199/.297/.433 (.730) with 15 extra-base hits in 45 games. Keirsey wouldn’t appear on any top Twins prospect lists because he hadn’t been able to put together a healthy season and showcase his true potential. In 2022, Keirsey finally played over 100 games for the first time in his professional career. He hit .271/.329/.395 (.724) with 26 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 home runs. The Wind Surge coaching staff let him loose on the bases, as he stole 42 of them in 49 attempts. Keirsey was slightly older than the average age of the competition in the Texas League, but he showed that he could stay healthy and produce. The Twins sent Keirsey back to Double-A to begin the 2023 campaign because the Triple-A outfield had other options. In 91 games, he hit .305/.363/.488 (.850) with 17 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs. He was promoted to Triple A at the beginning of August and posted a .739 OPS in the season’s final 39 games. On the bases, he went 39-for-44 in stolen base attempts, including a perfect 8-for-8 at Triple A. Keirsey stayed healthy again and played in a career-high 130 games. Minnesota has a clear need in center field for next season, so it was interesting that they didn’t add Keirsey to the 40-man roster. When he reached Triple A this season, it was the first time he was younger than the average age of the competition. He’s already 26 years old, and the Twins know him better than anyone. Perhaps the team doesn’t feel like he’s a viable option to play regularly in center field, and that’s why they were willing to leave him unprotected. If that skepticism is real, it's not unwarranted. Keirsey's already well into what would typically be a big-league player's prime, so we can't expect much more development from him. That's not the same as saying that such development is impossible, but it's unlikely, by definition. In his decent-sized sample of Triple-A playing time, his underlying data also betrayed some weaknesses that might confine him to a bench role. A lefty swinger, he whiffed on over 29 percent of swings against right-handed pitchers. The average whiff rate for lefty hitters facing righties in MLB in 2023 was 24.8 percent. His average exit velocity was under 88 miles per hour, and 47.5 percent of his batted balls were grounders. That's not a recipe for productivity at the plate, even accounting for his good plate discipline. A non-contending team can draft Keirsey without worrying about some of his flaws. He can play all three outfield spots, and he’s shown a strong ability to steal bases. His swing continued to improve in the upper minors, and another organization can stash him for a year as a fourth outfielder with some upside. Back in June, Seth called Keirsey the Twins' most underrated prospect, and it seems likely that a team might take a chance on his talent level in the Rule 5 Draft. Being a left-handed hitter helps widen his path to playing time elsewhere, but might have worked against him on the Twins' depth chart. Will the Twins regret losing Keirsey if he’s taken in the Rule 5 Draft? Should the Twins have protected him since they have four open spots on the 40-man roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Later this week, the Rule 5 Draft will be held at MLB’s Winter Meetings. Who have been the Twins' best selections in the annual rite? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Many fans think of Johan Santana as the team’s best Rule 5 Draft pick. Technically, however, the Twins didn’t draft him. Instead, he was picked by the Marlins and traded to Minnesota as part of a prearranged deal. Santana is arguably the best pitcher in Twins history, but he won’t be featured on the list below, since the Twins didn’t draft him themselves. (Besides, that makes for better suspense, doesn't it?) Minnesota’s current front office has avoided taking players in the Rule 5 Draft for various reasons. Sometimes, the right players aren't available at their draft spot, but more broadly, they value roster flexibility, including moving players up and down from Triple A. Rule 5 draftees must stay on a team’s active roster for the entire season, and contending teams have a tough time hiding those players on the roster. The Twins haven’t selected a player in the Rule 5 Draft since 2017, when the club took Tyler Kinley with the 13th overall pick from the Marlins organization. He made four appearances with the Twins and posted a 24.30 ERA before being offered back to Miami. It seems very unlikely the Twins will select anyone this year, either. Let’s look back at the team’s previous successes in the Rule 5 Draft. Which player has provided the most value to the Twins? 5. Gary Wayne, RP Twins WAR: 2.5 Minnesota selected Wayne from the Montreal Expos with the 10th pick in the 1988 Rule 5 Draft. He pitched parts of four seasons with the Twins from 1989-1992. In 170 innings, he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a 5.6 K/9. As a left-handed pitcher, his .688 OPS against southpaws was 64 points lower than versus righties. Minnesota traded Wayne to the Rockies along with Rob Wassenaar, for Brett Merriman. Wayne pitched his final two seasons in the bullpens of the Rockies and the Dodgers. 4. Mark Salas, C Twins WAR: 2.7 In 1984, the Twins selected Salas from the Cardinals organization with the seventh pick. He immediately became the team’s starting catcher, and hit .300/.332/.458 (.791) with 20 doubles, five triples, and nine home runs in 120 games. Salas finished in eighth for the AL Rookie of the Year voting, but accumulated almost as much rWAR as the winner, Ozzie Guillen. (If ever you come into possession of a time machine, please go back and show voters the WARs, to ameliorate this injustice.) During the 1987 season, Salas was traded to the Yankees for Joe Niekro. Overall, he had an eight-year career in the big leagues, playing for six organizations. 3. Ryan Pressly, RP Twins WAR: 3.6 Pressly has gone on to be one of the game’s best relievers, but few could have predicted that back in 2012. Minnesota selected him with the fourth pick, plucking him from the Red Sox organization. He pitched six seasons (317 innings) for the Twins and posted a 3.75 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. In July 2018, the Twins traded Pressly to the Astros for Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala. Houston worked with Pressly on his curveball to make it a dominant strikeout pitch, and he’s been integral to the Astros during their decade of dominance. 2. Doug Corbett, RP Twins WAR: 8.3 Corbett was the last pick in the 1979 Rule 5 Draft (10th overall), but he ended up having a solid career as a reliever for the Twins. In his rookie season, he made 73 appearances and posted a 1.98 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP. Corbett finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting but accumulated more WAR than both players ahead of him combined. (Again: time travelers, fix it. And don't tell me you don't have time to.) He represented the Twins at the 1981 All-Star Game, as he led the league in games and games finished that season. In May 1982, he was traded with Rob Wilfong to the Angels for Tom Brunansky and Mike Walters. He’d pitch parts of five more seasons, but never replicated his production with the Twins. 1. Shane Mack, OF Twins WAR: 19.6 The Twins selected Mack with the fifth pick in the 1989 Rule 5 Draft from the Padres. He played five years with Minnesota and was a key role player on the 1991 World Series team. In 633 games, he hit .309/.375/.479 (854) while averaging 24 doubles and 13 home runs. Some argue that he is among the most underrated Twins ever. Following the 1994 campaign, he signed in Japan and posted an .819 OPS across two seasons. Mack returned to the big leagues in 1997 and played a part-time role with Boston, Oakland, and Kansas City for two seasons. Do you agree with the rankings above? Would you include Santana in the rankings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Every offseason, teams sign long-term deals that lock up players well past their prime. Looking at the current Twins roster, here’s how the team’s worst contracts rank. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports It’s the holiday season, and many shoppers are attempting to find the best deals on the season’s hottest items (Twins Daily even has a gift guide). Teams across baseball are trying to cross items off their own wish lists, but shopping for free agents is sometimes riskier than going for the almost-free big screen on Black Friday. Players are paid on past performance, and some fail to repeat that performance as age and other factors start to play a role. Last week at The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen ranked baseball’s worst contracts based on what is owed to the player and the expected performance from that player. Some of the worst contracts include Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rendon. The Twins have their own buyer’s remorse with some of the team’s long-term deals. 4. Christian Vazquez, C Original deal: Three years, $30 million 2024: $10 million 2025: $10 million The Twins had a need at catcher last season, following a poor year from Ryan Jeffers and the departure of Gary Sánchez. The front office quickly targeted Vázquez and signed him to a three-year pact. Trade rumors have surfaced this offseason that have the Twins shipping out veteran players to free up payroll space, but the team would probably need to eat some of the $20 million he is owed over the next two seasons. On Wednesday, Nick discussed Vazquez's value to the Twins, especially with a younger starting staff. According to FanGraphs, Vázquez was worth $7.6 million last season, even though his 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. The Twins also utilize a two-catcher rotation, which would be less feasible without Vázquez. It doesn't make sense for a team cutting payroll to trade Vázquez when his value is near its lowest point, and they would have to pay down his contract. 3. Randy Dobnak, SP Original deal: Five years, $9.25 million 2024: $2.25 million 2025: $3 million Dobnak’s extension was a strange contract from the moment it was announced, in March 2021. He was coming off a spring training in which he showcased an improved slider that looked like a strikeout weapon. Minnesota bought out his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, and obtained club options on his first three would-be free-agent years. It gave the Twins some cost certainty, but it looks like a poor deal in retrospect. Dobnak is no longer on the 40-man roster, after spending multiple seasons dealing with a finger issue. Last season, he made 31 appearances (26 starts) at Triple-A with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9. His contract isn’t going to break the bank, but it also wasn’t a move the team was forced to make at the time. 2. Byron Buxton, DH Original deal: Seven years, $100 million 2024: $15 million 2025: $15 million 2026: $15 million 2027: $15 million 2028: $15 million Buxton’s deal didn’t look bad when he signed it, but it has aged poorly over the last year. The Twins signed him as their everyday center fielder, and his damaged knees have limited him to DH duties. From 2021 to 2022, Buxton was worth over $30 million per season, even when averaging 76 games per season. Minnesota can hope that Buxton will return to the outfield at some point, but that's far from certain after not he didn't play a single defensive inning at the big-league level in 2023. His bat will have to carry him through the remainder of his contract, and he’s shown the ability to be one of baseball’s best hitters when he is healthy. In his career, there have only been two full seasons where he has been worth less than $15 million, so there is hope he will bounce back next year. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Original deal: Six years, $200 million 2024: $36 million 2025: $36 million 2026: $31.5 million 2027: $30.5 million 2028: $30 million Correa was named an honorable mention in the original piece at The Athletic because he was only worth 1.4 rWAR in 2023. Twins fans are well aware of Correa’s struggles this season as he dealt with plantar fasciitis. Minnesota hopes Correa can use the offseason to put his injury behind him and return to performing at his previous level. Last week, I wrote about Correa’s first season since signing his big contract and how he impacts the club’s future payroll decisions. Correa and Buxton are tied to the team’s roster through 2028, and nearly $50 million per season is being paid to these two players. Contracts that initially look bad can rebound and look reasonable, especially if Buxton and Correa can return to performing at an All-Star level. Free-agent deals rarely work out in the team’s favor. Clubs pay a premium for the contract's early years and suffer the consequences of declining performance in the back half of the deal. This trend is becoming even more pervasive with big-market teams, as they sign players to 10- to 12-year contracts to spread the money out and avoid paying more in luxury tax. Minnesota isn’t going to approach the luxury tax, so it is even more critical that the front office is spending money wisely on the free market. Do you agree with these rankings? Should Buxton rank higher than Correa? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Twins Territory will have new voices behind the microphones of their broadcasts in 2024, but they will be familiar to many fans. On Friday, reports surfaced that Cory Provus and Kris Atteberry would be promoted to new broadcast roles. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this winter, the Twins announced that Dick Bremer would be retiring after 40 years as the team’s television voice. Bremer is shifting into a special assistant role for the club even though reports indicated that he wasn’t necessarily ready to retire. Minnesota also recently announced that Bremer has been named the 2023 winner of the Herb Carneal Lifetime Achievement Award, which will be presented as part of the annual Diamond Awards in January. Bremer was a Minnesota native born in Dumont, MN, who had been a Twins fan his entire life. He attended St. Cloud State University and began his play-by-play career with the Twins in 1983. He was on Spectrum Sports from 1983-1985 and continued with the club from 1987-2023 with various other stations. Multiple generations of Twins fans only know Bremer as the voice of the Twins. He leaves big shoes to fill, and the Twins are turning over his microphone to a familiar voice. According to the Star Tribune (and later announced by the Twins), Cory Provus will move into the television role next season after serving as the Twins radio voice since 2012. Provus has previously filled in for Bremer on television broadcasts and has called college football and basketball games on the Big Ten Network and FS1. Provus joined the Twins from the Brewers organization, where he called games with Bob Uecker. It will be his first time stepping into a full-time television role for baseball, but he is obviously very familiar with the organization. Kris Atteberry has been a fixture on the team’s radio broadcast for 17 seasons and will step into the full-time play-by-play role next year. He has filled in for Provus and Dan Gladden during absences while also hosting the radio’s pregame and postgame shows. Before joining the Twins, Atteberry served as the play-by-play announcer for the St. Paul Saints from 2002-06. Previously, the Twins bypassed Atteberry to give the radio play-by-play duties to Provus. Atteberry will now get his opportunity, and it should be a relatively seamless transition, with both stepping into roles where they have been backup options in the past. They have worked around the Twins organization for over a decade, which should help fans see less of a change with the new broadcast crew. Provus will likely be joined in the television booth by Justin Morneau in a majority of games, with Roy Smalley, LaTroy Hawkins, and Glen Perkins also seeing time in the color commentator role. Dan Gladden has worked in the Twins radio booth for the last 21 seasons and will likely continue to work alongside Atteberry. Following the announcement, Provus told reporters that the team is removing blackout restrictions for next season, which should open Twins broadcasts to a broader audience. The Twins are still searching for a television home for next season, but the switch in blackout restriction is a huge win for Twins fans across the upper Midwest. How do you feel about Provus taking over the television duties? Are you excited about the idea of blackouts going away? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Carlos Correa’s free agent journey was well documented last winter. Let’s review his second season with the Twins and how his contract impacts the organization in 2024 and beyond. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa and the Twins seemed destined to find each other. His long-term deals with the Giants and Mets each collapsed, and the Twins were waiting to welcome him back into the fold. Granted, it took the largest contract in team history (six years, $200 million), but the Twins were getting one of baseball’s top players in the prime of his career. This was an unusual feeling for Minnesota sports fans because there was hope Correa could push the team to levels not seen in the Target Field era. 2023 Recap Unfortunately, the 2023 regular season did not go as planned for Correa. His season started slowly with a .634 OPS in the first month. Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in May, impacting him on both sides of the ball throughout the 2023 campaign. He posted career-worst totals in most offensive categories, hitting .230/.312/.399 (.711) while grounding into an MLB-high 30 double plays. Even with his struggles, Correa continued to play through the injury as he led the Twins with games played and had 89 more plate appearances than any other player. In September, Correa was finding a way to produce offensively despite his nagging injury. He hit .296/.377/.463 (.840) with three doubles and two home runs in 15 games. He tore the fascia in late September when planting his foot on a popup against the Reds. Team trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that this kind of tear can lead to less discomfort in the foot for players. Correa’s playoff performance pointed to him being back closer to 100 percent. He made multiple defensive plays that were game-changing moments and went 9-for-22 (.409 BA) with three doubles and four RBIs. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli spoke during the regular season about his own experience with plantar fasciitis. Like Baldelli, players have shared that it can take an entire offseason of rest for the injury to heal completely. Sometimes, players deal with the injury throughout their careers. Hopefully, Correa returns in 2024 without any lingering effects from his injury-plagued 2023 season. Future Payroll Considerations The Twins are dealing with a payroll crunch this winter due to their lucrative television deal expiring at the season’s end. Minnesota is expected to drop payroll this winter, which can impact multiple parts of the roster. Also, there is no clear solution to the club’s television rights problem. Cable companies are falling to the wayside, with households cutting the cord and switching to streaming options. It might be multiple seasons before the Twins find a solution and can return payroll to levels seen in 2023. In 2024, the Twins have some wiggle room with the payroll for multiple reasons. Many of their young players have yet to reach arbitration, which makes them very affordable. Also, Pablo Lopez will only cost $8.25 million before his contract jumps to over $21 million per season from 2025-27. These players will only get more expansive in 2025 and beyond. Correa’s salary accounted for roughly one-fifth of the team’s overall payroll last season. FanGraphs pegged Correa’s financial value at just over $9 million, a career-low total. When healthy, Correa has averaged well over $30 million in value per season. With the team dropping payroll, it’s even more imperative for Correa to match his previous production level. Front offices can regret trading away players or signing free agents to long-term contracts. The Twins knew there were health risks associated with signing Correa, but there was no way to predict this year’s injury issue. Correa is tied to the Twins for at least five more seasons, and his contract will impact the type of players the team can target on the open market. Twins fans saw the highest highs with Correa in the playoffs last season and the lowest lows with his regular-season production. Now, the front office faces the challenge of upgrading a roster with limited payroll flexibility due to contracts like Correa’s. If Correa was a free agent this winter, would the Twins attempt to sign him? Would he be able to get more guaranteed money this winter because of the poor shortstop class available via free agency? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

During Minnesota's playoff run last season, Louie Varland showcased his elite skills in a bullpen role. His role for the 2024 season is more apparent, after Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray signed with new organizations. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Louie Varland has been quite the success story for the Twins' scouting and player-development departments. Minnesota selected Varland in the 15th round of the 2019 MLB Draft from Concordia University in St. Paul. He entered college with a mid-80s fastball and a below-average breaking ball. By his junior season, he increased his velocity to the low 90s and developed a solid breaking pitch. It was enough to catch the eye of the Twins, and they signed him for $115,000. Varland continued to make improvements after signing with the Twins, because he couldn’t overpower professional hitters with a low-90s fastball. Coming out of the pandemic, he threw in the mid-90s, and his arm slot was lower. These adjustments helped him to be a more consistent pitcher, which helped his prospect stock to rise. Following the 2021 season, Twins Daily ranked him as the organization’s 15th-best prospect after posting a 2.10 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 between Low and High A. His 2022 season established him as one of the team’s top pitching prospects after being named Twins Daily’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year. In 126 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.06 ERA, with a 1.26 WHIP and a 146-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota was confident enough in him to have him make his big-league debut at Yankee Stadium. He entered last season as Twins Daily’s ninth-ranked prospect and the fourth-highest-ranked pitcher. Varland began the season at St. Paul, but the Twins were forced to turn to him because of injuries in the first half. In 10 starts, he posted a 5.30 ERA, with a 1.36 WHIP and a 54-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His biggest issue was allowing 14 home runs in 56 innings. As other starters returned, Varland was sent back to Triple A in late June to work on his secondary pitches, including a cutter. Minnesota recalled Varland when rosters expanded on September 1, to test him in a late-inning bullpen role. His stuff was electric, with his fastball hitting triple digits and his cutter being a weapon in the low 90s. In seven relief appearances (12 innings), he allowed two earned runs with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His playoff experience was limited to two appearances, and he was only asked to get one out per game. Still, overall, it was clear that Varland could be a dominant bullpen option, especially with his improved secondary offerings. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli met with reporters following the 2023 season and had glowing remarks regarding Varland as a reliever. Outside of Jhoan Duran’s emergence, Minnesota’s late-inning bullpen options have been hit-or-miss for multiple seasons, so it’s easy to understand why a manager would get excited about a potential bullpen weapon. If it were up to Baldelli, he’d likely have Varland in the bullpen for next season and worry about other options to fill spots in the starting rotation. Minnesota’s starting rotation is losing two members, with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda signing free-agent deals outside the organization. Currently, the starting staff would include Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Chris Paddack in the top four spots. Varland lines up to fill the fifth spot in the rotation, but it seems likely that the front office will want to add more depth. If the Twins trade for a playoff-caliber starter, Varland would be pushed to Triple A, which the team did with Ober in 2023. It seems clear that no matter what the team does this winter, Varland will be needed in a starting role. Varland has been considered a hard worker throughout his collegiate and professional careers, and the new-and-improved version of him hasn’t been given a starting opportunity. Last season, his breaking and offspeed pitches had negative run values, while his fastball ranked in the 74th percentile. During the 2022 season, opponents posted a .545 SLG against his cutter, but he lowered that by 145 points last season. Another offseason of emphasis and refinement could sharpen that offering into a true difference-maker. Like many pitchers, Varland saw an increase in his velocity in his switch from starter to reliever. He lacks an actual swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed hitters, who hit .275/.317/.526 (.843) against him in 2023. One possible change would be using his cutter as a fastball and then trying to use his sinker more regularly. However, he has lacked a feel for that pitch because he only started throwing that pitch last season. Varland has shown the ability to make substantial improvements from one year to the next, and his sinker should be one focus area. From the front office’s perspective, it’s much easier for Varland to prepare for the season as a starting pitcher and shift him to the bullpen than to do things the other way around. The team assured him last season that the long-term plan is to keep him in the starting rotation. He’s outperformed expectations at every level, and the Twins hope he can take the next step in 2023 and establish himself as one of the team’s long-term rotation options. Should the Twins keep Varland in the rotation? Is it better to move him to the bullpen? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article