Cody Christie

MLB’s Winter Meetings start this week, and the Twins have multiple questions to approach the crackling hot stove. The biggest question might be whether the front office trusts the talent it has already assembled. Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images MLB’s Winter Meetings can signal a kickoff to the offseason, with all 30 front offices gathering in the same location to have face-to-face conversations. The Twins have been quiet at recent Winter Meetings, and many expect the same this season. There is little room in the team’s payroll to add via free agency, but the team can start having conversations about trading players. Minnesota enters the offseason with one of the AL’s best-projected rosters, but there are a lot of boxes to check before Opening Day. The Twins' most critical question might not be whom they acquire but how much they trust the talent already on the roster. After a 2024 campaign that ended with a disappointing collapse, the organization must decide whether to double down on its current core or explore bold changes to reshape the team. There’s a plausible version of this offseason where the Twins assess their roster, find ample reason to "run it back," and aim to prove that this talented group can achieve more. The foundation is there: - A Strong Rotation Core: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober provide a reliable trio atop the rotation. López continues to anchor the staff; Ryan has improved his secondary pitches while dialing back his reliance on the fastball; and Ober offers consistency as a playoff-caliber starter. The Twins also have plenty of depth in the rotation beyond the big three, which is invaluable. - Star Power in the Lineup: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis represent a trio capable of elite production. Correa rebounded in 2024 with an All-Star first half, before injury struck. Buxton played over 100 games for only the second time in his career. Lewis has shown flashes of the brilliant talent that made him one of baseball’s top prospects, but he needs to find more offensive consistency. - Complementary Talent: Players like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, José Miranda, and Edouard Julien can be strong complementary pieces. Griffin Jax and Jhoan Durán are among the AL’s best relievers, and the Twins have the potential to move Cole Sands and Louie Varland into key late-inning relief roles. There's a case for maintaining continuity with solid pieces in place and young talent waiting in the wings. However, this decision isn’t without risk. When the Whole is Less Than the Sum of Its Parts For all this group's theoretical upside, the 2024 season was a disappointment. Injuries, underperformance, and untimely struggles combined to derail a promising campaign. The Twins had over a 90% chance of making the playoffs in the second half before a collapse saw the Tigers run past them for the AL’s final Wild Card spot. Trusting the same players to take a step forward without significant changes could be overly optimistic. While the Twins likely have little room to maneuver in free agency due to payroll constraints, real change would require trades involving significant pieces. Chris Paddack and Christian Vázquez are obvious trade candidates, but is that enough to truly shake up the roster? Trading from the core is an option. Would the Twins consider dealing a young starter like Ryan, Ober, or Simeon Woods Richardson to address a glaring need? Could Lewis net a premium player to bolster the lineup? These are high-stakes decisions, especially when young talent is under team control for years to come. The Case for and Against Standing Pat If the Twins trust their talent, running it back is a bet on better health, further development, and improved results. A fully healthy Correa, Buxton, and Lewis anchoring the lineup could elevate the offense. López, Ryan, and Ober have proven capable in the rotation, while younger pitchers like David Festa and Zebby Matthews could add depth. However, there’s a real risk that this core group might be inherently flawed. The 2024 collapse suggests deeper issues that continuity alone may not solve. Banking on complementary hitters like Larnach, Wallner, Miranda, and Julien to step up without a contingency plan could expose the team if they fall short again. How Bold Will the Twins Be? The Twins' front office faces a tricky balancing act: How do you address shortcomings while avoiding unnecessary upheaval? If the organization believes its roster is championship-caliber, sticking with its core is the logical move. If not, this winter could be one of difficult but necessary decisions. Fans will hope the front office has learned from recent missteps. Whether they run it back or shake it up, the Twins must ensure that the 2025 roster avoids the pitfalls that plagued the team in 2024. After all, trust in talent can only take a team so far. Execution and a little luck win games in October. What do you think? Should the Twins stick with their current roster, or is it time for bold changes? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Current projections have the Twins sitting over $140 million in payroll for the 2025 season. How can the team cut enough off the edges to get closer to ownership’s reported payroll limit? Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins face a financial conundrum heading into the 2025 season. FanGraphs projects the team's payroll at $142 million, but internal reports suggest the front office needs to bring that figure closer to $130 million. Finding $12 million in savings won’t be easy, especially with fans expecting the team to remain competitive. However, three potential moves could help the Twins hit their target while maintaining roster flexibility. 1. Trade Christian Vázquez Savings: $5 million Vázquez remains a solid veteran presence and the pitching staff has raved about his work behind the plate. Minnesota must trust that Ryan Jeffers and Jaír Camargo are ready to step into more prominent roles. However, having this duo share catching duties would be a defensive downgrade that the Twins might not be able to afford. The front office is likely weighing the pros and cons of shaking up their catching corps. Based on what free-agent catchers are getting this winter, the Twins could trade him while agreeing to pay half his $10 million salary. The free-agent catching market is always thin, and some names have already been signed this winter. Vázquez’s defensive reputation and experience would appeal to teams looking for a dependable backstop. Saving $5 million would give the Twins some breathing room in their payroll while handing more playing time to Jeffers and younger options. Key Considerations: - Losing Vázquez would shift more responsibility to Jeffers, who has been solid but has flaws. - Camargo could join the catching rotation, but the team may need another veteran catcher as insurance. 2. Trade Chris Paddack Savings: $7.5 million Paddack’s return from Tommy John surgery in 2024 saw an inconsistent performance. In 17 starts, he posted a 4.99 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and 8.0 K/9. On paper, the Twins have a surplus of starting pitchers and could use their depth to shed his $7.5 million salary. Young arms like David Festa and Zebby Matthews are projected to start the year in the minors, but they could provide affordable alternatives for the big-league roster. Paddack’s one-year deal makes him an attractive trade target for teams needing starting pitching. So far this winter, the pitching market has been “through the roof,” and this will force contending teams to get creative for veteran arms. His salary might be the most significant piece the team can move this winter, so trading Paddack should be a top priority. Key Considerations: - Trading Paddack could backfire if injuries hit the rotation. - Festa and Matthews will need to prove they’re ready for consistent big-league innings. 3. Trade Willi Castro Savings: $6 million Castro was a revelation for the Twins in 2024, offering record-breaking versatility and earning his first All-Star selection. However, his projected $6.2 million arbitration figure might be a luxury the team can’t afford. The Twins have internal options like Austin Martin and Edouard Julien , both of whom had disappointing 2024 seasons but possess the talent to rebound. Castro’s ability to play nearly every position makes him a valuable trade chip, especially for teams looking to add utility players. Last season, he hit .266/.352/.422 (.774) with 34 extra-base hits in 96 first-half games. His OPS dropped by nearly 150 points in the second half, which might scare off some potential buyers. Trading him would clear significant payroll space while allowing Martin and Julien the opportunity to reclaim their promise. Key Considerations: - Castro’s departure would put pressure on Martin and Julien to step up. - The Twins would need to address potential depth concerns if injuries arise. These moves would save $18.7 million, allowing the Twins to drop well below the $130 million threshold with room to make more minor additions or absorb unexpected costs. Trading Vázquez, Paddack, and Castro comes with risks, but the Twins' organizational depth makes these decisions feasible. Hitting a lower payroll target while remaining competitive is a delicate balancing act, but smart, forward-looking moves like these can keep the team in contention without compromising its financial health. What do you think? Are these moves worth the potential savings, or should the Twins explore other options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

After the Twins' second-half collapse, many fans might believe that the entire hitting core underachieved in the second half. Here’s a look at the hitters who most overachieved and underachieved. Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports Despite the team’s collapse, the Twins had offensive performances that stood out. Some of these performances might be tied to the overachieving hitters. On the other hand, some hitters may have suffered underperformance based on bad luck. Below you will see data from Baseball Savant that compares players' slugging percentage with their expected slugging percentage. According to their website, “Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit-bypitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.” Let’s dive into the leaderboard to see which hitters overachieved or underachieved. Overachieving Minnesota Twins Hitters Leaderboard (SLG-xSLG) Carlos Correa: +.062 Matt Wallner: +.055 Ryan Jeffers: +.046 José Miranda: +.042 Carlos Correa and Matt Wallner were two of the most critical hitters for the Twins lineup last season. Correa slashed an impressive .308/.377/.520 (.897) with 16 doubles, three triples, and 13 home runs through the first 75 games of the season. He had some lucky hits, including this chopper and a variety of infield hits like this one. Teams shift on Wallner because of his power potential from the left side, which can lead to hits like this, or defenders can get a bad break on the ball. The Twins hope both players can build off their offensive performances last season, but luck might have helped their overall performance. Ryan Jeffers and Jose Miranda were two of the team’s streakiest hitters in 2024 and some of that streakiness might point to why they are overachieving. Jeffers posted a .791 OPS in the season’s first half before struggling with a .630 OPS after the All-Star break. He had three months with an OPS of .830 or higher and two months with an OPS of .470 or lower. Like Jeffers, Miranda struggled in the season’s second half, dropping his OPS from .888 to .543. His first half included a record-tying 12 consecutive at-bats with a hit, but he dealt with a back injury at the end of the year. Underachieving Minnesota Twins Hitters Leaderboard (SLG-xSLG) Manuel Margot: -.042 Edouard Julien: -.028 Trevor Larnach: -.024 Christian Vázquez: -.024 Brooks Lee: -.020 Manuel Margot , a right-handed hitter, did most of his damage against lefties with an OPS that was 173 points higher. He broke the MLB record for futility as a pinch hitter, going 0-for-30 in 35 plate appearances. For the Twins, there was hope that Margot could fill the role occupied by Michael A. Taylor the previous season. However, he quickly proved that he wasn’t able to handle center field, and his offensive numbers tanked. He won’t be back with the Twins. Edouard Julien and Trevor Larnach are two interesting names to consider on this leaderboard because of how their seasons played out differently. Julien was expected to take the next step and build off a tremendous rookie season where he posted a 130 OPS+. Instead, he struggled mightily (74 OPS+) and spent part of the season at Triple-A. During his big-league time, there were some plays where defenders recorded outs despite hard-hit contact or just missed the ball. Larnach was one of the team’s best offensive players, finishing with a 116 OPS+ despite a leg injury limiting him to DH duties. He had hard contact that was somewhat unlucky, and there are also areas in Target Field’s power alleys where it is tough for balls to find the grass. Both players can point to their expected totals and hope for better luck next year. Christian Vázquez played well in July and August with a .844 OPS, but his offense was significantly below average in the season’s other months. He might have been slightly unlucky, but his offensive performance has significantly declined over the last two seasons (62 OPS+). Brooks Lee debuted with high expectations as one of the team’s best prospects. He struggled during his rookie campaign by hitting .221/.265/.320 (.585) with ten extra-base hits in 50 games. The difference in his SLG and xSLG points to a potential offensive improvement next season. Every year, there will be hitters who are lucky or unlucky when putting the ball in play. Correa and Wallner were some of the team’s most overachieving hitters, while players like Julien, Larnach, and Vázquez might see a bump in their offensive numbers with better luck in 2025. What stands out about the leaderboards listed above? Which player is most surprising? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Johan Santana dominated during the 2004 season on the way to his first Cy Young. Here’s why he should have been in the AL MVP discussion. Image courtesy of Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports Johan Santana's 2004 campaign was the best season of his career and one of the most dominant performances by a pitcher in modern MLB history. The Minnesota Twins’ lefty dazzled with a combination of pinpoint control and a devastating changeup, earning his first Cy Young Award in a landslide. However, when the MVP voting results were announced, Santana finished sixth despite being statistically superior to many position players who placed ahead of him. Let’s revisit that season and the MVP debate that still lingers. Santana’s Case for AL MVP Santana’s numbers in 2004 jump off the page. Over 34 starts, he posted a 20-6 record with an AL-best 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He struck out 265 batters in 228 innings, leading the league in strikeouts and K/9 (10.5). His second-half performance was nothing short of legendary as he went 13-0 with a 1.21 ERA in 15 starts, holding opponents to a .155 batting average. There is no question that Santana put the Twins on his back to carry them to the playoffs. The advanced metrics underscore Santana’s dominance. His 8.8 WAR was the highest among AL pitchers and topped all but one position player in the league. He led the league in ERA+, FIP, WHIP, H/9, and ERA. Despite this, Santana’s sixth-place MVP finish highlighted how voters often overlook pitchers for the award. The 2004 AL MVP Race Vladimir Guerrero won the AL MVP, putting together a tremendous season for the Anaheim Angels. Guerrero slashed .337/.391/.598 (.989) with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs. He was the spark plug for a playoff-bound team, leading the league in runs scored (124). However, Guerrero’s WAR (5.6) was far lower than Santana’s, suggesting his overall value didn’t match the same level of excellence. Manny Ramirez, who finished third, led the AL in OPS (1.009) and home runs (43), cementing his place as one of baseball’s most feared hitters. Gary Sheffield (2nd), David Ortiz (4th), and also received more votes than Santana, despite none surpassing 4.3 WAR. Ichiro Suzuki, who led the league in WAR (9.2), had one of the greatest single-season offensive performances ever, breaking George Sisler’s hits record with 262. Yet, he finished behind Santana in MVP voting, a reflection of the voters’ biases toward sluggers and team success. Why Santana Deserved More Pitchers winning MVP is an uphill battle. Historically, only the most transcendent pitching performances, such as Bob Gibson in 1968, Roger Clemens in 1986, or Justin Verlander in 2011, have convinced voters that a hurler was the league’s most valuable player. Santana’s 2004 season deserved to be in that conversation. Unlike everyday players, pitchers only influence a fraction of their team’s games. But Santana’s influence transcended his starts. His consistency at the top of the rotation set the tone for a Twins team that won the AL Central with a 92-70 record. His dominance in September, when the Twins secured the division, was invaluable. For all his offensive prowess, Guerrero didn’t single-handedly carry the Angels as Santana did the Twins. WAR provides a compelling argument, as Santana outpaced every MVP contender except Ichiro. His second-half performance, where he essentially made opposing hitters irrelevant, was unmatched in its impact on team success. Santana’s 2004 season earned him his first Cy Young Award and cemented his place among the game’s elite. Still, his sixth-place MVP finish remains a reminder of how difficult it is for pitchers to gain proper recognition in MVP voting. In hindsight, Santana’s brilliance was the definition of value, and his season stands as one of the best arguments for why pitchers should be included in MVP discussions. Looking back, Santana’s name deserved to be mentioned alongside Guerrero’s, Ramirez’s, and Ichiro’s in the MVP debate. While he didn’t take home the hardware, Santana’s 2004 will forever remain a season for the ages and one that Twins fans will cherish as one of the most dominant pitching performances ever seen. What do you think? Did Johan Santana deserve the 2004 MVP? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Rumors are swirling that Luis Arráez may be on the trading block again. He’s won three straight batting titles, but organizations seem ready to move on from him. Why doesn’t anyone want Arráez? Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Twins fans fell in love with Luis Arráez from the moment he stepped on the field. His offensive approach was reminiscent of Twins Hall of Famer Rod Carew, and his on-field energy was infectious. After all, how many players can boast three consecutive batting titles by age 27? Yet, as Arráez prepares for what might be his fourth uniform in as many seasons, his story is one of a changing baseball landscape and shifting organizational priorities. Arráez’s baseball journey has taken him from being a fan favorite in Minnesota to the Miami Marlins to his current stint with the San Diego Padres. It also reveals why his skill set, while impressive, is not enough to make teams commit long-term. The Twins: Pitching Over Contact Arráez became a fan favorite in Minnesota thanks to his exceptional bat-to-ball skills, winning his first batting title in 2022. In 144 games, he hit .316/.375/.420 (.795) with a 128 OPS+ and 4.2 rWAR. Yet, that same offseason, the Twins made the surprising decision to trade him to the Miami Marlins for Pablo López. For Minnesota, the origin of the trade was simple because they needed starting pitching, and López fit the bill. While Arráez provided elite contact hitting, his lack of power, speed, and defensive versatility limited his overall impact. He had moved down the defensive spectrum to the point where the Twins viewed him as a first baseman or designated hitter. The Twins’ front office recognized that the value of a high-average singles hitter was declining in an era driven by slugging percentages and defensive flexibility. In hindsight, the Twins’ move might have been ahead of its time. The Marlins: A Front-Office Rebuild Arráez’s lone season in Miami was nothing short of spectacular. He captured his second batting title, becoming the first Marlin to achieve the feat. In 147 games, he posted a career-high 4.9 WAR while hitting .354/.393/.469 (.861) with a 128 OPS+. He finished eighth in the NL MVP voting, was an All-Star, and won a Silver Slugger. However, Miami’s front office underwent significant changes last offseason, with general manager Kim Ng departing and the team pivoting toward a rebuild. In this new direction, Arráez became a luxury rather than a necessity. His arbitration salary of over $10 million was steep for a team looking to shed payroll and accumulate younger, controllable assets. Miami decided to move on, flipping Arráez to the San Diego Padres last winter as part of a cost-cutting effort. Miami acquired four prospects for Arráez, including Dillon Head, Woo-Suk Go, Jakob Marsee, and Nathan Martorella. It showed how much his value had dropped in one season. The Padres: Cost-Cutting Constraints San Diego’s acquisition of Arráez initially seemed like a natural fit. His contact-oriented approach complemented a star-studded but strikeout-prone lineup. In 150 games, he hit .314/.346/.392 (.739) while leading the NL with 200 hits. However, his overall value dropped significantly, with a 106 OPS+ and a 1.1 WAR. Arráez won his third consecutive batting title, but his value has come into question as the Padres face mounting financial pressures. For the second straight offseason, San Diego is looking to slash payroll, and Arráez’s escalating arbitration figure (over $14 million) makes him a prime trade candidate. According to FanGraphs, his projected 2024 value ($8.8 million) is significantly lower than his salary, particularly after thumb surgery this October introduced uncertainty about his future production. The Decline of the Singles Hitter Arráez’s situation highlights a broader trend in baseball with the devaluation of singles hitters. The modern game prizes power, speed, and defensive versatility, and players like Arráez, who excel in one narrow facet of the game, are becoming harder to build around. Arráez’s elite contact skills have undeniable value but don’t outweigh his defensive limitations or lack of power. His Hard Hit%, Barrel%, and BB% rank in the third percentile or lower. Also, advanced metrics like Wins Above Replacement (WAR) reflect how his bat alone can’t carry his profile, especially with his defensive limitations (-13 OAA in 2024). Did the Twins See the Future? In retrospect, the Twins may have been proactive in trading Arráez when they did. While López blossomed into an ace, Arráez’s limitations are becoming more apparent. He was an MVP candidate during his peak, but the gap between his arbitration cost and actual on-field value is widening. Arráez remains a unique talent in today’s game, and fans love his ability to do what few others can (hit for average at an elite level). But his career path underscores how baseball has evolved and how even batting champions must adjust to the sport’s shifting priorities. For teams like the Padres, Marlins, and Twins, the question remains: Is Luis Arráez worth the price? So far, the answer seems to be no. Will Arráez be traded again this winter? Do teams value elite contact hitters with little power? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers have provided stability behind the plate for the Twins over the last two seasons. With the front office looking to shake up the roster, though, is trading a catcher one way to balance the books? Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel and Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports For the past two seasons, the Minnesota Twins have utilized a rotational approach at catcher, splitting time between Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers. This tandem has benefited the team, keeping both players fresh over the grind of a 162-game season. However, the offensive inconsistencies of both players and the team’s payroll limitations have led to growing rumors that the Twins might part ways with one of their catchers. Could this be the offseason where Minnesota reshapes its catching situation? The Value of the Rotation In 2023 and 2024, the timeshare between Vázquez and Jeffers worked as intended. Vázquez’s veteran presence helped stabilize the pitching staff, while Jeffers showed flashes of his offensive upside, highlighted by a 133 OPS+ in 2023. Their regular availability allowed the team to focus on other areas of the roster and not worry about who was behind the plate on any given day. This approach also allowed both catchers to stay healthy, a key factor considering the physical toll catching takes. Jeffers has had his share of injury concerns in the past, but splitting time allowed him to avoid the injured list for two straight seasons. Vázquez, meanwhile, brought stability to the role, though his offensive contributions have continued to decline; he's posted a 62 OPS+ in his two years with the Twins. He has never been considered a strong offensive player, but this is a nearly 20-point drop compared to his OPS+ for his career. Payroll Crunch and Trade Rumors While the system has worked defensively, the financial side complicates the picture. Vázquez is set to earn $10 million in 2025, the final year of his contract. For a team already facing payroll constraints, that’s a hefty price for a catcher whose offensive production has dipped. Jeffers is projected to earn $4.7 million in arbitration. He offers a cheaper alternative, but has yet to prove he can handle the full workload of an everyday starter. The Twins are reportedly exploring trade opportunities, and Vázquez’s salary makes him the likelier candidate to be dealt. However, Jeffers has more trade value because he has multiple years of team control, comes at a cheaper cost, and has more offensive upside. But trading either catcher would leave Minnesota with a significant question: Who steps in to fill the void? Is Jaír Camargo Ready? Jaír Camargo is the only other catcher currently on the Twins’ 40-man roster, but the team showed minimal trust in him during his brief stints in the majors last season. Despite having multiple stints at the big-league level, Camargo never started a game behind the plate, logging just seven plate appearances across five games. He went 0-for-6 with one walk and three strikeouts in a minimal sample. The organization’s hesitation to use him as a catcher speaks volumes. Camargo has a reputation for having a strong arm and plus raw power at the plate, but concerns about his receiving and game-calling abilities likely explain his limited usage. With the Saints, he has worked with many of the organization’s top prospects, like David Festa and Zebby Matthews, so that might help him gain traction at the big-league level. He hit .212/.290/.403 with 16 doubles and 12 home runs in 75 games for Triple-A St. Paul in 2024. Whether the Twins believe those skills will translate to baseball’s highest level is unclear. What's the Catching Plan? If the Twins trade Vázquez, they must trust Camargo to step into a rotational role or acquire another catcher. Internal candidates like Ricardo Olivar or Noah Cardenas could eventually enter the conversation, but neither is likely ready for a significant role in 2025. The free-agent catching market is thin, and any trade involving Vázquez would likely need to include a veteran replacement. Alternatively, the Twins could lean more heavily on Jeffers as the primary catcher while using Camargo sparingly. This strategy would shift Jeffers into a role he has never held at the big-league level. Would the Twins risk such a move in a season where their margin for error feels razor-thin? Trading Vázquez could provide the Twins with financial flexibility to address other roster needs, but it comes with significant risks. Camargo’s readiness is a major question mark, and the Twins can’t afford a step back defensively at catcher. While Jeffers’s emergence as a potential everyday player is intriguing, it’s fair to wonder whether Minnesota’s catching tandem is worth breaking up. The team’s decision this offseason will send a clear message about its priorities heading into 2025. Do the Twins value continuity and defensive stability, or are they willing to gamble on a cheaper option? Will either catcher be traded? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Over the last two seasons, fans have seen the best and the worst of Pablo López. Can the team’s ace find a way to avoid his early season struggles? Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Pablo López has shown two very different sides over the past two seasons. During the first half, he’s struggled to find his rhythm, with inconsistencies impacting the Twins’ early record. But by the second half, it’s as if a switch flips, and he becomes one of the team’s most reliable arms, often showcasing ace-level performance. To maximize his impact across the entire season, here are some ways López might avoid the early-season slump that has defined his time in Minnesota so far. 1. Sweeping Struggles Under the Rug López’s sweeper has the potential to be one of his most dangerous pitches, but batters teed off on that pitch in 2024 with a slugging percentage over .500 in the first two months. One key to his success in the second half has been his ability to hit his spots with his secondary pitches. If López can start the season with that level of control, it will prevent him from getting into deep counts and forcing him to rely too much on his other pitches before settling into the game. Preseason bullpen work could be his best opportunity to refine his control. Working on using both edges of the plate more aggressively in spring training games and getting into a rhythm with his catching duo should set him up to control counts earlier and avoid those “giveaway” at-bats that seemed to haunt him in April. 2. Embracing Offseason Routine Adjustments Each offseason, pitchers work through a series of programs to build up strength and endurance, but some adjustments to his routine may give López an edge. Last winter, he went to Driveline Baseball shortly after the season ended to be assessed while coming off a strong season. Emphasizing shorter, higher-intensity throwing sessions instead of simply focusing on endurance could help him avoid that feeling of “playing catch-up” in early April. A more intense approach to offseason training, with more precise workload management, could keep him from slipping into early season inconsistencies. In particular, López could lean into strategies that mimic game situations, whether simulating counts, pitch types, or specific in-game adjustments. By replicating high-leverage situations in his training regimen, he could build up confidence and muscle memory, making his second-half form the starting point for 2025. 3. Prioritizing the Changeup Early López’s changeup has been his calling card, especially as the season progresses. As the second half of both seasons has shown, his changeup becomes even more deceptive when he’s in peak form. Last season, batters posted a .281 BA versus his changeup, the highest total of his career. Still, that pitch had a lower exit velocity, producing a slugging percentage over 50 points lower than in 2023. Implementing it more deliberately from the start could give him a stable foundation to rely on while he builds up his fastball confidence and other breaking pitches. His ability to generate soft contact and prevent hard-hit balls by leaning on the changeup early could prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball, which may keep him in better counts. Last season, he held batters to a .540 OPS when he was ahead in the count. If he deploys this weapon strategically in the early months, it could make his entire pitch mix more effective 4. Incorporating In-Game Adjustments Sooner López has struggled early in games, especially in the first inning. Last season, batters hit .244/.282/.480 (.762) against him in the first frame, including eight home runs, the most he allowed in any inning. From the 2nd through the 3rd inning, he allowed a slugging percentage of .397 or lower. There must be something too predictable about his pitch mix in the first inning that makes it easier for opponents to focus on one pitch or area of the zone and make hard contact. One of López’s biggest strengths is his adaptability, especially in the latter part of the season, where he’s shown he can pivot mid-game or mid-season. Learning to embrace those adjustments sooner might allow him to avoid prolonged slumps altogether. For example, López has often tinkered with his pitch sequencing as the season wears on; if he can fast-track this process, it may allow him to keep hitters off-balance earlier in the year. If López can hit the ground running and avoid those typical slow starts, he could elevate the Twins’ rotation to a new level. Avoiding the early-season slump will require physical and mental adjustments, but López has already proven he’s more than capable. The key for him may lie in getting out of his own way and letting his second-half ace mentality shine from the start. What’s the most significant issue keeping López from performing well in the season’s early months? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have a plethora of top prospects knocking on the door to the big leagues. Which players have the best chance to end the team’s 30-year drought for the AL Rookie of the Year? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Luke Keaschall) and Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (Marco Raya) The Minnesota Twins have a history of producing impactful rookies, and the 2025 season promises to continue that trend. With the team's farm system brimming with talent, several prospects have the potential to make a significant splash in the majors next season. Last week, MLB.com's prospect team picked one player from each organization that is a candidate for Rookie of the Year. Twins Daily recently finished a reranking of the top prospects in the organization entering next season, and the players below are all featured prominently on that list. Here’s a look at the top candidates for the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year Award, ranked by their potential impact, along with one sleeper pick to keep on your radar. 5. Cory Lewis: SP Current TD Rank: 9 Few prospects have taken as unconventional a path as Cory Lewis, but his knuckleball-anchored repertoire has made believers out of scouts and coaches alike. The Twins have carefully managed his innings, and 2025 could be the year he transitions into a full-fledged big-league starter. In 2024, he posted a 2.51 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 79 innings. While his ceiling might not be as high as some of the team’s other top prospects, Lewis’s ability to keep hitters off balance could make him an impactful presence in the rotation. Don’t overlook his potential to surprise the league. 4. Marco Raya: SP Current TD Rank: 5 Raya has long been one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins system, and 2025 might finally be his time to shine. Despite his slight frame for a starting pitcher, his mid-90s fastball and devastating slider has kept him on the prospect radar since being drafted by the team in 2020. In his final 38 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.09 ERA while holding opponents to a .579 OPS. If he can build on that performance in the high minors, Raya could break into the Twins’ rotation by midseason. His dynamic arsenal makes him an exciting dark horse candidate for Rookie of the Year honors. 3. Andrew Morris: SP Current TD Rank: 6 After steadily climbing the Twins’ pitching depth chart, Morris has positioned himself as one of the organization’s most MLB-ready arms. The right-hander blends a low-90s fastball with a pair of advanced secondary offerings, making him a strong candidate for the Twins’ rotation in 2025. He finished last season at Triple-A while pitching a career-high 133 innings with 9.0 K/9. Morris will start the year in the minors but might be needed in a similar role to David Festa this past season. 2. Emmanuel Rodriguez: OF Current TD Rank: 2 Rodriguez's tools jump off the page, and that makes him one of the most exciting prospects in the Twins system. His 2024 season showed flashes of brilliance, but injuries and streaky performances limited his on-field production. The left-handed slugger could step into a starting role in the Twins’ outfield, particularly if Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner struggle. He finished last season with a taste of Triple-A and should begin 2025 at that level. If Rodriguez can improve his strikeout rate (27.5 K% at Double-A) while maintaining his power, he can potentially be a long-term building block for the Twins. 1. Luke Keaschall: INF Current TD Rank: 3 Keaschall's rise through the Twins' farm system has been meteoric. In 102 games last season, he hit .303/.420/.483 (.903) with 21 doubles and 15 home runs. He did all of this while playing through an elbow injury that eventually led to Tommy John surgery. He is expected to be fully healthy by spring training. Keaschall combines a smooth glove with an electric bat, making him a candidate to grab a starting infield role early in the season if injuries impact the big-league roster. His plus contact skills and surprising pop for his size could allow him to hit at the top of the lineup. Keaschall will give the team their best chance to end their ROY drought if he delivers on his potential. Sleeper Pick: Walker Jenkins Current TD Rank: 1 It’s rare for a player drafted out of high school to rise so quickly through the minors, but Jenkins is no ordinary prospect. He is already considered one of baseball’s top prospects, and that means he will get plenty of attention when he debuts. While Jenkins projects to start 2025 in the upper minors, a midseason promotion is very much in play, particularly if the Twins need a spark. His blend of power, athleticism, and defensive versatility makes him a potential game-changer. If he reaches the majors and finds his footing, Jenkins could turn the Rookie of the Year race on its head. With a mix of top-tier position players and dynamic pitchers, the Twins have plenty of candidates to watch in the 2025 Rookie of the Year race. Whether it’s Keaschall’s polish, Rodriguez’s power, or the rotation potential of Morris, Raya, and Lewis, the Twins' pipeline is poised to make a significant impact in the year ahead. And don’t forget about Jenkins because he might surprise us all. Which prospect has the best chance to win the 2025 AL Rookie of the Year? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Max Kepler has been a member of the Twins organization since he was a teenager. Now, he will test free agency for the first time in his career. Here are seven teams that might have a fit for the versatile outfielder. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler is navigating the uncharted waters of free agency for the first time in his career. The veteran outfielder has been a staple for the Minnesota Twins since his MLB debut in 2015, but the 2024 season was one he'd rather forget. Limited by injuries and struggles at the plate, Kepler enters the offseason with something to prove. Over the last three seasons, he has averaged a 102 OPS+ with 21 DRS. MLB Trade Rumors projects the 31-year-old to land a one-year contract in the $6-10 million range, a significant drop from where he entered last offseason. While Kepler’s 2024 numbers may not jump off the page, his track record of solid defense, average offensive totals, and positional versatility make him an intriguing option for teams needing outfield depth. Here are some potential landing spots for Kepler as he looks to rebuild his value: New York Mets Current Projected RF: Starling Marte The Mets are no strangers to reclamation projects, and Kepler could be a perfect fit for a team looking to make a deeper run into October. Their outfield situation remains in flux, with injuries and underperformance plaguing the roster. Kepler’s ability to play all three outfield positions would give manager Buck Showalter flexibility if Kepler is willing to spend some time in center field. Seattle Mariners Current Projected RF: Victor Robles Seattle’s roster is built on pitching and defense, which aligns well with Kepler’s strengths. The Mariners are set in center field with Julio Rodríguez, but they could use a veteran presence to stabilize a corner spot. Kepler’s glove would shine in spacious T-Mobile Park, and his pull-heavy approach could benefit from the stadium's design. Toronto Blue Jays Current Projected RF: George Springer The Blue Jays need left-handed bats to balance some of the right-handed hitters in their lineup, and Kepler checks that box. Toronto is in a tricky place when it comes to its winning window. The team disappointed in 2024, and some of its veteran players are close to free agency. Additionally, the Blue Jays might be intrigued by Kepler, an appealing stopgap option. San Diego Padres Current Projected RF: Fernando Tatis Jr. After their payroll shrunk last winter, the Padres face an uncertain offseason, but Kepler could be a cost-effective addition. His ability to provide steady defense and occasional pop would help stabilize their lineup. Kepler would need to switch positions because the Padres are likely not going to move Tatis Jr. from right field. San Deigo must surround its core with affordable veterans, and Kepler fits the bill. Pittsburgh Pirates Current Projected RF: Joshua Palacios Pittsburgh is attempting to emerge from a rebuild, and adding a player like Kepler could help solidify their young roster. He would bring veteran leadership to a team that showed flashes of promise in 2024. With PNC Park’s cavernous right field, Kepler’s defense would be a valuable asset. Plus, the Pirates have some payroll flexibility to take a flier on a player looking to re-establish himself. Colorado Rockies Current Projected RF: Sam Hilliard The Rockies remain perpetual wild cards in free agency, but their need for defensive upgrades could bring Kepler into the picture. Coors Field can amplify even modest power, and Kepler’s gap-to-gap approach could thrive in Denver. Additionally, his defensive instincts would help mitigate some of the challenges posed by the thin air in Colorado. A successful season with the Rockies could put him in a better position to hit free agency again next winter. Miami Marlins Current Projected RF: Griffin Conine The Marlins took a step back in 2024, so they are searching for consistent offensive production. Kepler’s left-handed bat could slot nicely into their lineup, and his defense would bolster their outfield behind a strong pitching staff. Miami was one of baseball’s worst teams last season, so a veteran like Kepler can help rebuild some of the clubhouse culture that suffered in 2024. Kepler’s market will depend largely on how teams view his injury-marred 2024 campaign. Is he a player in decline, or can he return to being the steady, versatile outfielder he was earlier in his career? A one-year deal with incentives seems like the most likely outcome, allowing Kepler to prove himself before testing free agency again in 2025. The teams mentioned above stand out as the best fits, but Kepler’s combination of experience and versatility ensures that multiple teams will be interested in giving him a fresh start. Where will Kepler play in 2025? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Multiple MLB relievers have switched back to a starting role in recent years. Griffin Jax is a candidate to do this for the Twins, but the potential move comes with inherent risks. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins face an intriguing offseason decision regarding Griffin Jax. A bullpen mainstay in recent years, Jax is coming off a strong season as a late-inning arm. However, there’s been speculation about whether he deserves another opportunity in the starting rotation. While a transition like this could pay dividends, there are significant risks the Twins must consider before altering Jax's role. Mike Ferrin of MLB Network shared on social media that Twins bench coach Jace Tingler mentioned this on the network. While the Twins are open to the possibility, it's far from certain. Given Minnesota’s financial uncertainty due to declining television revenue and potential ownership changes, they likely won't have the flexibility to pursue big-name starting pitchers in free agency. If they are serious about upgrading the rotation, transitioning Jax into a starting role might be one of their few viable options for making a significant impact. "I think ultimately, it's going to come down to what is Griffin, deep down in his heart, what does he want to do? Does he want to continue to grow and be a dominant relief pitcher? Which I think he knows he can do. He's got a ton of confidence in that," Tingler said. "Or does he have it deep in his heart, like 'You know what? I've always been a starter and I think I can do this. This is a road I want to go down.' We, as an organization, feel very confident he can do either one." Derek Falvey has also been open to the possibility of Jax returning to a starting role. “We want to continue to have conversations with him about what he thinks he needs to do to prepare for it, how he would go through a season,” Falvey said. “We're trying to be as transparent with each other as possible about, what could this look like? And then ultimately, not rule out the possibility that a starting option is in play.” Here are three reasons why moving Jax to the rotation comes with risk. 1. Risk of Underperformance as a Starter For Jax to be considered a success in the rotation, he’d need to pitch over 150 innings with an ERA in the 3.70-3.85 range. That’s a high bar for a pitcher who hasn’t started a game since 2021. Starters must face opposing lineups multiple times, which often exposes weaknesses that a reliever can mask in shorter stints. Jax has a starter’s pitch mix, which has worked wonders in the bullpen but may not translate back to the rotation. The Twins took Jax in the third round of the 2016 MLB Draft, but he was never viewed as a top pitching prospect. In six minor league seasons, he posted a 3.24 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP. However, he struggled to strike out batters (6.8 K/9), and his inability to miss bats allowed for extra-base runners (8.7 H/9). Converting a reliever to a starter can lead to uneven results, so the Twins risk using a valuable roster spot on a pitcher who may not produce value. 2. Losing an Elite Bullpen Arm Jax has established himself as one of baseball’s elite relievers. In 2024, he posted a 2.03 ERA, 1.94 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 95 strikeouts, and 15 walks in 71 innings. The Twins’ relief corps has relied heavily on him, especially in high-leverage moments. His knack for securing crucial late-inning outs has been vital, particularly when closer Jhoan Durán has required rest. Transitioning Jax to the rotation would leave a significant void in the bullpen. If he transitions to the rotation and fails, the Twins may be unable to reintegrate him back into the bullpen with the same level of effectiveness. This risk looms large, considering the team’s current roster makeup. The Twins have depth in the starting rotation, with young arms like David Festa, Zebby Matthews, and Marco Raya not projected to be in the team’s starting rotation to start the year. Meanwhile, the bullpen has been a sore spot, especially in the middle innings. Moving Jax could leave the bullpen even thinner, creating another hole for the front office to address this winter. 3. Increased Injury Risk Due to their workload, starting pitchers carry a greater injury risk. Jax has been conditioned as a reliever for the past three seasons and has shown the ability to handle short but intense outings. Transitioning to a starter’s workload (typically over 25-30 starts and 150+ innings) requires a completely different level of physical preparation. Entering his age-30 season, Jax’s body may not respond well to the rigors of starting pitching, especially since he hasn’t built up starter endurance since 2021. Additionally, high-leverage bullpen usage can leave lingering wear and tear. Asking him to shoulder a significantly larger workload could increase his susceptibility to injuries, risking his availability and the team’s depth. While the idea of giving Jax another shot as a starter is tempting, the risks may outweigh the rewards. His current role as a bullpen stalwart aligns with the Twins' roster needs, and the uncertainty surrounding his ability to handle a starter’s workload adds another layer of concern. Ultimately, the Twins must ask themselves: is the potential upside of Jax as a starter worth the possibility of losing a proven bullpen arm and increasing his injury risk? For a team with playoff aspirations, the safer bet might be keeping Jax right where he’s been most effective, and that’s in the bullpen. He anchors a unit that will need all the help it can get in 2025. Should the Twins still consider moving Jax to a starting role? Do the risks outweigh the rewards? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

In the Target Field era, the Twins have seen some of the best prospects developed in the team's farm system. Here, we finish rounding up the players who have climbed highest in national rankings, going back to the dawn of the prospect industry. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Over the years, the Minnesota Twins have developed an impressive list of prospects who arrived in the big leagues with sky-high expectations. From hometown heroes to international sensations, the hype around these players has shaped the franchise's identity and captured the hearts of Twins Territory. Baseball America was the first national outlet to rank prospects in 1990, and coverage of the minor leagues has expanded significantly since that time. Earlier this week, we recapped the sixth- through 10th-best prospects the team has had (according to those national rankings) in the decades since. Today, we'll finish the countdown with the top five. 5. Royce Lewis (2017 - 1st Overall Pick) Top-100 Peak: 5 Being selected first overall comes with lofty expectations, and Lewis lived up to the hype right away, with a solid .788 OPS in his professional debut. That made him a consensus top prospect. His stock rose even higher after an impressive 2018 season, wherein he posted an .803 OPS across Low-A and High-A. He struggled in 2019 (.661 OPS), however, before the 2020 minor-league season was canceled. Injuries threatened to derail his career, but he’s persevered, showing flashes of brilliance at the big-league level. Over the last three seasons, he has been limited to an average of fewer than 70 games per season. There are still high hopes for Lewis to put it all together at the big-league level and reach his lofty prospect projections. 4. Miguel Sanó (Signed in 2009 as an International Free Agent) Top-100 Peak: 4 Sanó may not have fully met expectations, but he undoubtedly ranks among the best prospects in Twins history. He appeared on national top-100 prospect lists for five straight offseasons, earning top-15 rankings multiple times. With his light-tower power and a .932 OPS in the minors, Sanó was a prospect who captured attention even before he signed with Minnesota. His MLB career was marked by inconsistency, but his raw power remains his defining asset. He currently ranks 12th in franchise history in home runs. His .491 slugging percentage is second only to Harmon Killebrew in team history. 3. Walker Jenkins (2023 - 5th Overall Pick) Top-100 Peak: 2 Jenkins is the latest in the Twins’ line of elite prospects, and the buzz around him is palpable. Scouts rave about his advanced hit tool, left-handed power, and all-around athleticism. In 2024, he hit .282/.394/.439, with 32 extra-base hits in 82 games while making it from Low-A to Double-A. The only thing to slow him down during the 2024 campaign was a leg injury after slamming into the wall in his first game of the season. It’s early, but Jenkins could develop into a cornerstone player, much like Joe Mauer and Byron Buxton before him. The Twins are betting big on his superstar ceiling. He will enter the 2025 season as a consensus top-5 prospect, with some lists ranking him as high as second with Washington’s Dylan Crews or Boston’s Roman Anthony being ahead of him. There is a chance that he debuts during the 2025 campaign, while only being 20 years old. 2. Byron Buxton (2012 - 2nd Overall Pick) Top-100 Peak: 1 Buxton's five-tool talent was evident early in his professional career, earning him the top spot on all three major national prospect rankings heading into the 2014 season. While some rankings later dropped him to second behind Chicago's Kris Bryant, Buxton competed for attention among a stacked group of prospects, including Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Lucas Giolito. Buxton was billed as a five-tool superstar with game-changing speed and power. His minor-league highlights felt almost superhuman, earning comparisons to Mike Trout. Injuries have tempered his production in the majors, but his Gold Glove defense, electric baserunning, and 2022 All-Star campaign are testaments to his immense talent. Few prospects have generated as much excitement as Buxton. 1. Joe Mauer (2001 - 1st Overall Pick) Top-100 Peak: 1 When the Twins selected Mauer with the first overall pick in 2001, he quickly became regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Baseball America ranked him seventh heading into the 2002 season, and he later claimed the top spot in back-to-back offseasons. He is the only player in Twins history to achieve that distinction. Mauer went on to have a remarkable career and is widely considered one of the greatest players in franchise history. The quintessential hometown hero, Joe Mauer was the crown jewel of the 2001 MLB Draft. A St. Paul native, Mauer’s hitting ability was considered generational, and he fulfilled every ounce of his potential. He became a six-time All-Star, three-time batting champion, and 2009 AL MVP while redefining the catcher position. His combination of elite bat-to-ball skills, defensive prowess, and quiet leadership made him the gold standard for Twins prospects. The Twins’ farm system has produced an impressive legacy of players who have defined the franchise’s highs and lows. While some prospects fulfilled their potential, others fell short, but all of them carried the weight of expectations and hope for the future. Walker Jenkins could be the next player to write his chapter in this storied lineage of Twins prospects. What do you think of the rankings? Did your favorite prospect make the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article