Cody Christie

The Twins have 14 players eligible for arbitration this winter. Some decisions are much easier to make than others. Here are the team’s most challenging decisions among arbitration-eligible players. Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports Baseball’s arbitration process has some aspects that can make the process confusing for the casual fan. Players become eligible for arbitration after completing almost least three years of service time but before the six years necessary to qualify for free agency. Players accumulate service time by spending time on their organization’s 26-man roster or big-league injured list. The player must reach 172 days to reach one full year of service. Earlier this week, MLB Trade Rumors released its annual list of projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. The site uses a formula (developed by Matt Swartz) to compare and analyze players based on similar player types in previous arbitration cases. The totals below might be off compared to what the player actually receives in the arbitration process, but they should give a general overview of the decisions facing the Twins. The Twins have some easy decisions when it comes to arbitration. Some of the easy decisions include Bailey Ober ($4.3 million), Griffin Jax ($2.6 million), Joe Ryan ($3.8 million), Royce Lewis ($2.3 million), Trevor Larnach ($2.1 million), and Ryan Jeffers ($4.7 million). Those millions start to add up quickly, and the ownership group seems unlikely to alter the team’s payroll limitations for 2025. It’s expected that the Twins will have a payroll of around $130 million for the second consecutive season after cutting that amount by $30 million last winter. So, what arbitration decisions will be the toughest for the Twins? Willi Castro, UTL Projected Salary: $6.2 million Castro was a first-time All-Star in 2024, and versatility became his calling card. He made 27 or more appearances in center field, left field, second base, third base, and shortstop. An argument could be made that he was the team’s MVP through the season’s midway point. According to FanGraphs, he has been worth $44.6 million to the Twins during his two seasons with the club. That might make it an easy decision to offer him arbitration. However, a team searching for more payroll flexibility, like the Twins, might decide to allow a cheaper player to fill Castro’s role next year. Jhoan Durán, RP Projected Salary: $3.7 million Duran’s decrease in velocity was a storyline throughout the 2024 season, including stretches where he was less effective. Minnesota’s current front office regime has avoided spending money on bullpen arms. This season, Caleb Thielbar was the team’s highest-paid reliever at $3.225 million. The Twins struggled to find reliable bullpen arms for the 2024 season, so it seems ludicrous to not bring Duran back for under $4 million. There’s a chance that the Twins might believe his struggles are signs of more significant issues that aren’t worth a gamble. Relievers tend to burn out quickly, especially those throwing triple digits regularly. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF Projected Salary: $1.8 million Kirilloff struggled mightily during the 2024 campaign by hitting .201/.270/.384 (.653) with a 81 OPS+ in 57 games. The Twins have demoted Kirilloff in four consecutive seasons as he has tried to gain traction as a big-league regular. He’s battled through multiple wrist surgeries along with shoulder and back issues that have greatly impacted his performance. Kirilloff is entering his age-27 season and has played below a replacement-level player. The Twins have other options at first base and corner outfield that can produce at a higher level. It might make sense for the Twins to part ways with their former first-round pick. Justin Topa, RP Projected Salary: $1.7 million The Twins acquired Topa as part of the Jorge Polanco trade, and they hoped he’d provide the team with another late-inning bullpen option. Unfortunately, he suffered a knee injury during spring training that kept him off the field until late September. He made three scoreless appearances for the Twins, but the team had already fallen out of the playoff race. His long-term health will be the most significant factor in whether or not the Twins offer him arbitration. Minnesota’s bullpen struggled to find high-leverage options, so Topa could be a steal at under $2 million for 2025. Twins management is fortunate to have developed so many players who are performing at a high level during their arbitration-eligible seasons. But those performances can get increasingly expensive as players move towards free agency. With last year's budget cut expected to stay in place for 2025, some difficult decisions may need to be made. Should the Twins offer arbitration to the above players? Is there anyone else who should be added to the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Managers become an easy target when a season ends poorly. Is Rocco Baldelli on the hot seat moving into the 2025 campaign? Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Rocco Baldelli has experienced a rollercoaster ride as the Minnesota Twins manager. From record-breaking highs to late-season collapses, his tenure is filled with moments of promise and disappointment. As fans turn their focus to the 2025 season, it’s clear that Baldelli needs to deliver results to secure his future. 2019: A Dream Debut Baldelli couldn’t have asked for a better start to his managerial career. In 2019, the Twins won an impressive 101 games, clinching the AL Central title. Known as the "Bomba Squad," the team set a major league record for home runs in a season, with five players hitting 30 or more. Baldelli’s modern approach (emphasizing player rest and matchups) seemed to work wonders. However, the postseason was a different story. The Yankees swept the Twins in the ALDS, extending their postseason losing streak, but optimism for the future was high. 2020: Success in a Shortened Season The COVID-19 pandemic shortened the 2020 season, but the Twins still managed to win the division for the second consecutive year with a 36-24 record. Baldelli’s handling of the pitching staff and his ability to keep players fresh paid off. Yet, the Twins' playoff demons struck again. Minnesota was swept in the Wild Card round by the Houston Astros, setting the record for most consecutive postseason losses in major North American sports history. The disappointment was palpable, but it was hard to ignore Baldelli’s regular-season success in back-to-back years. 2021: The Collapse Begins After two successful seasons, 2021 was the first significant test of Baldelli’s leadership and it was a disaster. Injuries, underperformance, and questionable decisions saw the Twins fall to a dismal 73-89 record, finishing last in the AL Central. A once-promising core, led by Jorge Polanco and Byron Buxton, couldn't stay healthy or productive. The pitching staff was in shambles, and Baldelli’s tactical management came under fire. Many wondered if his reliance on analytics was leading to more harm than good, especially as players struggled to find consistency. 2022: A False Start Heading into 2022, the Twins made bold moves, including signing Carlos Correa, and optimism was high. The team started well, leading the division for much of the season. Baldelli seemed to have regained control, but a collapse in the second half led to a disappointing 78-84 finish. Injuries, bullpen struggles, and late-game management questions resurfaced. The Twins missed the postseason for the second year in a row, and Baldelli’s seat began to warm. 2023: A Return to Form In 2023, Baldelli and the Twins bounced back. With critical contributions from young players (Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner), the Twins once again captured the AL Central title. The pitching staff, led by Pablo López and Sonny Gray, was dominant, and Baldelli’s management of a deeper bullpen showed improvement. The Twins ended their playoff losing streak and won a postseason series for the first time since 2002. Baldelli’s position was more than secure heading into 2024. 2024: High Hopes, Bitter End Expectations were sky-high for the Twins in 2024. With a roster built to contend, many believed this would be the year Baldelli could guide the team deep into the playoffs. However, the season was marred by injuries to key players like Correa, Buxton, and Joe Ryan, leading to inconsistency on the field. While Baldelli managed to keep the Twins competitive, they faltered late in the season and missed the playoffs, finishing in fourth place in the AL Central. Once again, questions about Baldelli’s ability to manage high-pressure situations came to the forefront. 2025 Outlook: A Must-Win Year? With three underwhelming seasons in the last four years, 2025 feels like a make-or-break year for Baldelli. While he’s shown an ability to lead the team to successful stretches, the inability to overcome late-season collapses has defined his tenure. The Twins are clearly in a winning window, and the front office may not be as patient if another disappointing year unfolds. For Baldelli, 2025 will likely determine his fate as the Twins’ manager. The pressure is on, and anything short of a deep postseason run may signal the end of his time in Minnesota. Is 2025 a make-or-break year for Baldelli? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have already announced that Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli will return for the 2025 season. So, will another front office member take the fall for the team’s disappointing finish? Image courtesy of Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports A little over a year ago, Thad Levine's name was buzzing around the baseball world. The Minnesota Twins general manager was reportedly a finalist for the Boston Red Sox's coveted president of baseball operations role. For Levine, this seemed like the next step in a career that had seen him rise from assistant GM in Texas to one of the most respected front-office executives in the league. Under his and Derek Falvey’s leadership, the Twins had built a contender, producing division titles and fostering a culture of player development. However, the Red Sox ultimately chose Craig Breslow, a younger and less experienced candidate. That decision may have foreshadowed a troubling turn for Levine’s trajectory. As the Twins wrap up a season below expectations, questions surrounding Levine's future have grown louder. Minnesota’s ownership has already said that Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli will return in 2025. However, it’s become increasingly clear that someone will need to take the fall for the disappointing results in 2024, and Levine, once a hot commodity, appears to be the likely candidate. When Levine joined the Twins in 2016 alongside Falvey, the pair were touted as the dynamic duo that would finally bring Minnesota back into the conversation of perennial contenders. The front office duo quickly showed their impact, with the Twins reaching the postseason in 2017 and winning AL Central titles in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Under Levine’s guidance, Minnesota seemed primed for a sustained run of success. But beyond regular-season victories, the team has collapsed in two of the last three seasons. Minnesota made waves in 2022 by signing Carlos Correa, hoping the team could recover after a disastrous 2021 season. Instead, the team fell apart in the second half and finished 14 games out of first place. The 2024 season will be remembered as one of the worst collapses in team history, with Minnesota having over 90% playoff odds in early August. In a results-driven league, those collapses, combined with some lackluster offseasons, tarnished his reputation. Minneapolis hosted the SABR Convention back in August, and Levine was one of the speakers. He answered one panel question by noting that Falvey is very value-focused, very disciplined, and very farsighted. Those traits are all a necessity for someone manning a president of baseball operations role. He went on to say that he saw himself as a bit more of the risk-taker--the one who could help make sure they weren't being too conservative. Losing that voice in the Twins’ front office could significantly alter the franchise’s direction. One of the most significant risks taken during Levine’s tenure was the 2022 trade deadline deals. The biggest swing (and miss) was a trade with Cincinnati, acquiring Tyler Mahle in exchange for top prospects Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar. Mahle, brought in to solidify the rotation, succumbed to injuries, providing little return on investment before leaving the Twins with a depleted farm system and no ace to show for it. At the same deadline, the Twins traded with the Orioles for All-Star closer Jorge López. Minnesota sent four pitchers to Baltimore in the deal, including Yennier Cano, Cade Povich, Juan Nunez, and Juan Rojas. López struggled with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in 58 innings with the Twins before he was traded to Miami for Dylan Floro. Cano has developed into a solid late-inning option, while Povich has started to establish himself at the big-league level. It’s a trade that undoubtedly hurt the Twins farm system. Levine can’t be blamed entirely for the failure of these trades because Falvey would have signed off on the moves. However, they were seen as aggressive at the time, which fits Levine’s self-identified traits. Other aggressive moves during the current regime have had varying levels of success. Signing Josh Donaldson was a failure, but the team found a way to dump the end of his contract. Trading Luis Arraez for Pablo López was a very aggressive move that has worked in the Twins’ favor. Levine’s missed opportunity in Boston was a significant blow. Not only did it highlight that a storied franchise like the Red Sox, one of the game's most prestigious jobs, had passed on him, but they chose a less experienced option in Craig Breslow. The decision may have signaled a shift in how baseball front offices are viewed with an emphasis on fresh ideas from someone with less front office experience. The Giants took a similar direction earlier this week by hiring former All-Star Buster Posey, who has no front office experience. The Twins' front office has operated under a collaborative model, meaning both Levine and Falvey have had their fingerprints on significant decisions. However, it's hard to ignore the whispers that someone is on the hot seat after another underwhelming campaign. Levine, in particular, might be the easier target. The optics seem poor with his missed promotion to Boston and the Twins' recent stumbles. Perhaps Levine will get another shot elsewhere—his track record, while not without blemishes, is still strong enough to draw interest from other teams. But as for Minnesota, a fresh voice might be what the organization needs as it looks to navigate the next phase of this competitive window. In the world of baseball, timing is everything, and unfortunately for Thad Levine, the clock may have run out in Minnesota. Should the Twins move on from Levine? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Over the last two weeks, we have been handing out the Twins Daily Minor League Awards. So, who were the top hitters in the Minnesota Twins organization during the 2024 season? One of the best aspects of award voting in a minor league system is the stories about the players who appear on the ballot. Minnesota’s top-five hitters this season include some players who were high draft picks and others who had to go to the independent leagues to prove their worth. Each story is unique, and the path to becoming a big-league player takes on many forms. Entering next season, the Twins are expected to have one of the highest ranking farm systems on national prospect rankings. There is a chance the Twins have baseball’s number one overall prospect and multiple players in the top 10. Minnesota’s deep farm system has been built under the current regime through strong drafting and development. The seasons by the players discussed below are part of the fabric of an organization's growing depth through multiple avenues to keep the big league club’s winning window open as long as possible. Who have been the previous winners of this award? PREVIOUS WINNERS 2012 - Oswaldo Arcia 2013 - Miguel Sano 2014 - Mitch Garver 2015 - Max Kepler 2016 - Daniel Palka 2017 - Mitch Garver 2018 - Alex Kirilloff 2019 - Trevor Larnach 2021 - Jose Miranda 2022 - Matt Wallner 2023 - Yunior Severino Here are some of the hitters who received votes on writer’s ballots: Honorable Mentions C/OF Ricardo Olivar, 23, Cedar Rapids/Wichita, 100 G, 101-367, .275/.381/.441 (.823), 19 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 62 BB, 88 K, 6 SB. IF Rubel Cespedes, 24, Cedar Rapids, 110 G, 118-418, .282/.346/.431 (.777), 22 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 72 RBI, 39 BB, 93 K 5 SB. UTL Michael Helman, 28, St. Paul/Minnesota, 72 G, 75-277, .271/.350/.487 (.838), 18 2B, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 29 BB, 76 K, 12 SB. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, 21, Wichita/St. Paul, 47 G, 44-157, .280/.459/.567 (1.026), 14 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 27 RBI, 51 BB, 62 K, 9 SB. SS/CF Brandon Winokur, 19, Fort Myers, 94 G, 90-362, .249/.327/.434 (.761), 19 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 54 RBI, 34 BB< 115 K, 23 SB. Others Receiving Votes: Yunior Severino, Jeferson Morales , Matt Wallner, Anthony Prato, Eduardo Beltre Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year Here are the top five players for the Twins Daily Hitter of the Year, leading up to the choice for the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year. 5. OF DaShawn Keirsey Jr, 27, St. Paul/Minnesota 111 G, 133-443, .300/.368/.476 (.845), 22 2B, 7 3B, 14 HR, 81 RBI, 48 BB, 116 K, 36 SB. Keirsey was left unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft last winter, and no teams selected him. He went on to have a record-breaking season in St. Paul while also making his big-league debut. In his first 46 games, he posted a .928 OPS while hitting over .300. Injuries have impacted him throughout his professional career, and he missed nearly a month during the middle of the 2024 season. He posted a .572 OPS in his first 28 games coming off the IL, but he found another gear in the season’s final months. In his final 41 games, he hit .346/.403/.506 (.910) with 14 extra-base hits and 15 steals. He recorded 133 hits and 81 RBI with the Saints, both are single-season franchise records. 4. OF Carson McCusker, 26, Wichita/St. Paul 122 G, 130-461, .282/.353/.488 (.841), 30 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 45 BB, 150 K, 7 SB. McCusker played multiple seasons in the independent leagues before signing with the Twins last season. He made his mark during his first full season of affiliated action. His season started at Double-A, where he was nearly two years older than the average age of the competition. After a cold start in April (.678 OPS), he hit .285/.364/.518 (.882) with 40 extra-base hits in his next 82 games before being promoted to Triple-A. He posted a .820 OPS in St. Paul with nine extra-base hits in 24 games. He destroyed left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .959 OPS in 128 PA. His strikeout rate was high, but he was hitting with enough power, which made it easier to ignore the swing and miss in his game. 3. OF Walker Jenkins, 19, Fort Myers/Cedar Rapids/Wichita 82 G, 86-305, .282/.394/.439 (.833), 22 2B, 4 3B, 6 HR, 58 RBI, 56 BB, 47 K, 17 SB. Jenkins is Minnesota’s top-ranked prospect, and an early season injury is likely the only thing that stopped him from topping this list. He slammed into the wall during Fort Myers’ first game of the season and missed two months. Jenkins quickly made his presence felt when he returned from the IL, as he posted a .823 OPS in his final 32 games at Low-A. It was a solid start to his first full professional season, but it was only the beginning. Minnesota continued to be aggressive with him by promoting him to High-A, where he was over three years younger than the average age of the competition. In 34 games, he hit .290/.382/.481 (.863) with 17 extra-base hits and a 24-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. When Cedar Rapids’ season ended, the Twins sent Jenkins to Double-A for the season’s final six games. He went 4-for-25 with a double and three runs scored. For the season, he only had 11 plate appearances versus younger pitchers. Jenkins will be in the conversation as baseball’s number-one-ranked prospect this winter. 2. IF Payton Eeles, 24, Fort Myers/Cedar Rapids/St. Paul 111 G, 114-372, .307/.435/.497 (.932), 19 2B, 8 3B, 12 HR, 60 RBI, 67 BB, 68 K, 41 SB. Eeles might be one of the best stories in all of baseball over the last year. He went from an undrafted collegiate player in 2023 to Triple-A with the Twins organization to end the 2024 campaign. Minnesota signed Eeles on May 7th and assigned him to Fort Myers. In 34 games, he hit .331/.448/.517 (.965) with 13 extra-base hits, 13 steals, and a 27-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was over three years older than the average age of the competition in the FSL, so the Twins promoted him to High-A in the middle of June. Eeles’ stay in Cedar Rapids was short-lived (13 G) as he went 11-for-40 (.275 BA) with more walks (11) than strikeouts. He continued to be a threat on the bases, going 8-for-11 in stolen base opportunities. On July 4th, Minnesota promoted Eeles to Triple-A and had him completely skip the Double-A level. He didn’t slow down in St. Paul, which is hard to believe for a player with fewer than 160 at-bats in the low minors. Eeles played 64 games with the Saints, hitting .299/.419/.500 (.919) with 23 extra-base hits and 20 steals. An argument can be made for him as the top hitter in the Twins minor league system this year, and he has a place in the organization’s long-term plans. 1. IF Luke Keaschall, 21, Cedar Rapids/Wichita 102 G, 115-379, .303/.420/.483 (.903), 21 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, 48 RBI, 62 BB, 80 K, 23 SB. It’s truly remarkable to see Keaschall’s name top this list during a season where he played through an elbow injury. He posted terrific offensive numbers before undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the season, so he can be back in action next spring. His season began in Cedar Rapids, where he posted a .881 OPS during the season’s first month. He exploded May by hitting .375/.468/.596 (1.065) with eight doubles and five home runs in 27 games. The Twins promoted him to Double-A at the end of May, and he continued to thrive. Keaschall was over three years younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. He played 58 games for Wichita and had at least one hit in 45 of those contests. June marked his first full month at Double-A, and it turned out to be his worst month of the season. In 27 games, he posted a .817 OPS with nine extra-base hits and 28 strikeouts. It was the only month where he struck out more than 17 times. During July, he went 22-for-76 with five homers and two doubles while getting on base nearly 43% of the time. The writing was on the wall at the beginning of August. He needed to go under the knife so he could be ready for spring training. Out of his 464 plate appearances, only 28 came against younger pitchers. When facing older pitchers, he hit .302/.424/.483 (.907) in 354 at-bats. As a right-handed batter, he posted reverse splits this season, with his OPS being 109 points higher when facing righties. However, he was limited to 89 at-bats against southpaws. Keaschall will enter this winter as the Twins’ top infield prospect while also being in consideration as a top-100 prospect. The Twins will be cautious with him as he returns from injury next season, but there is a strong chance he will make his big-league debut during the 2025 campaign. Realistically, the top five hitters finished the year in the high minors and have a chance to impact the Twins’ roster in 2025. Jenkins and Keaschall are considered among the organization’s top position player prospects, while the other three can provide depth to a franchise always looking to optimize the big-league roster. Each player has their own story, and it’s only a matter of time before these prospects find a long-term role in Minnesota. Congratulations to this year’s top minor-league hitters! How would your ballot have looked? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins don’t have a frontrunner for the team’s 2024 MVP. However, Carlos Correa was a lock for the award until everything changed for the team’s star shortstop. Image courtesy of John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports After winning its first playoff series in two decades, Minnesota entered the 2024 season with high expectations. Carlos Correa was at the center of those high expectations because he was healthy after battling a plantar fasciitis injury in 2023. When the Twins re-signed Correa, he brought with him higher expectations. Correa’s pedigree as a two-time All-Star, World Series champion, and a strong defender made him the highest-paid player on the team. He more than lived up to that billing in the first half of the season. Unfortunately, an untimely injury derailed his season and the team’s postseason dreams. Correa’s 2024 season started as a redemption tour. He came into the year with a chip on his shoulder to prove the 2023 season was a fluke. Last year, he played 135 games but struggled with a 94 OPS+ while setting the team record with 30 GDP. By the time the All-Star break rolled around, there was no question that Correa had not only shaken off the rust but was thriving at a level fans had rarely seen from him in a Twins uniform. He slashed an impressive .308/.377/.520 (.896) with 16 doubles, three triples, and 13 home runs through the first 75 games of the season, combining his power and plate discipline in ways that brought comparisons to his best years in Houston. Correa’s defense also returned to elite form, with an OAA in the 87th percentile, providing critical value on both sides of the ball. It was arguably his best first half in his illustrious career. The result? Correa earned a well-deserved All-Star nod, reminding everyone why Minnesota committed to the largest contract in franchise history to keep him. His leadership, poise, and production had the Twins comfortably holding a playoff spot heading into the break. Then disaster struck. Shortly before the Midsummer Classic, Correa suffered another bout with plantar fasciitis, this time in his right foot. It was initially unclear how much time he would miss, but as days turned to weeks, his absence loomed larger. As the calendar turned to September, it was evident that if Correa returned, it would be with less than 100% healthy. The Twins floundered without Correa anchoring the lineup and stabilizing the infield defense. His presence on both sides of the ball was sorely missed. The once-surging team found itself stumbling, struggling to generate offense, and unable to win vital divisional matchups. The slide was painful and, for many fans, frustratingly familiar. Minnesota went 29-38 (.432 W-L%) from his last game in July to the end of the season. The playoffs, once a near certainty, were slipping out of reach. What made Correa’s injury all the more frustrating for the team was the pressure surrounding him. As the team’s highest-paid player, the expectations were immense. The front office, the fans, and even Correa knew he needed to be the central figure in any Twins' success. And for the first half of 2024, he embraced that role with open arms. His absence became glaring in his two-month absence, and the Twins failed to fill the void. With so much invested in Correa, this felt like a season that could’ve been saved had he been healthy. It was a stark reminder of Minnesota's reliance on their superstar, especially in light of ownership cutting $30 million from the payroll this winter. Correa takes up such a large percentage of the team’s financial commitment that he is essential for the team to succeed. The Twins' playoff hopes evaporated as the regular season came to a close. September’s stretch of games turned into a nightmare, with Minnesota’s offense flatlining without its MVP in the middle of the lineup. Correa returned in the middle of September, but by that point, the team was beyond saving. He went 13-for-40 (.325 BA) with four doubles and a home run in 11 games, but the Twins ultimately fell short. Minnesota missed the postseason for the second time in Correa’s three seasons with the club, and many will point to his injury as the defining moment of the collapse. While baseball is a team sport, the Twins' late-season struggles underscored how much Correa had meant to their success. The 2024 season is one of missed opportunities for Minnesota. Correa’s All-Star first half showed what could be possible when he’s healthy and at his best, but his absence down the stretch was a sobering reminder that one player can’t win or save a season on their own. He finished the season as the team's leader in fWAR and rWAR, showcasing his great first half and how poorly the team performed without him. The Twins, already facing questions about their future roster construction, now must hope that Correa’s health returns to form in 2025 and beyond. For Correa, his MVP-caliber start in 2024 should serve as motivation to return stronger, hungrier, and with unfinished business. Minnesota will need him more than ever. And for Twins fans, there’s hope that this star can guide them back to where they want to be—a playoff team with championship aspirations. Is Correa still the team’s 2024 MVP? Who would make your top-five ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The 2024 Twins season will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. How does it stack up with other disappointing seasons in team history? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jerry Lai, Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports After a Twins season that failed to live up to expectations, many fans have a sour taste in their mouths. Minnesota sports fans have become accustomed to watching their favorite teams fall short in critical moments. The Twins have had several seasons that did so, leaving fans disappointed. Here are a few of the most notable, starting with the most recent: 2024 Season Expectation: The Twins entered the season as the clear favorites in the AL Central. Minnesota’s expectations were high, following the team’s first playoff series win in two decades. Other AL Central teams seemed to be in various stages of disrepair or transition, so it looked like it was the Twins’ division to lose. Disappointment: Cleveland got off to a tremendous start and ran away with the division title. Kansas City added pieces over the winter and at the trade deadline to bolster their roster. Detroit sat below .500 at the trade deadline and became sellers, but went on an unbelievable run to end the year and win a Wild Card spot. Minnesota had playoff odds over 90% entering August and collapsed down the stretch. Three AL Central teams made the playoffs, and the Twins were left on the outside looking in. 2022 Season Expectation: The Twins surprised the baseball world by signing Carlos Correa to a massive free-agent deal coming out of the lockout. Earlier in the winter, Minnesota had traded for veteran starter Sonny Gray. It was a clear message to the AL Central that the Twins were going to contend, and put the horrible 2021 season in the rearview mirror. Disappointment: On Aug. 6, the Twins were in first place by two games and stood seven games above .500. There was a 62.3% chance for the team to make the playoffs. Injuries plagued the team in the second half, and their playoff odds evaporated. Minnesota finished in third place (14 games back), with a record below .500. Adding to the disappointment, Correa was headed back to free agency and seemed likely to sign elsewhere. 2011 Season Expectation: Coming off division titles in 2009 and 2010, the Twins were expected to dominate again. They had a strong core of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Michael Cuddyer. Jim Thome re-signed with the club, after a renaissance season during his first year in a Twins uniform. Minnesota also signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka, whom they hoped would be the next great Japanese player. Also, Target Field was still buzzing with excitement in its second year. Disappointment: Instead, the team fell apart, finishing 63-99, their worst record since 1982. Injuries to key players like Mauer and Morneau and a collapse from the pitching staff made this season particularly frustrating. The ageless Thome suddenly aged very rapidly, and Nishioka struggled to transition to the MLB level (40 OPS+). Warning signs became evident during the team’s midsummer cave-in: Minnesota was heading into a dark decade, with the team struggling to be relevant. Eventually, the baseball operations department needed to be overhauled, and the team moved on from two different managers. 2001 Season Expectation: Minnesota entered the 2001 season with the eyes of the baseball world on it. During the offseason, MLB discussed plans to contract the Twins, but the plan was blocked by a court injunction that forced the team to honor their lease at the Metrodome, and by challenges from the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA). This large cloud looming over the team put pressure on young players to perform. With players like Torii Hunter, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Brad Radke leading the way, the Twins burst out of the gates, holding first place for much of the year and looking like a playoff contender. Disappointment: A midseason collapse saw the Twins fall out of contention. They finished with an 85-77 record, missing the postseason. This season stung, because it seemed like the team was finally ready to compete again after a decade of rebuilding. It was the first step in what would become a decade dominated by the Twins in the AL Central. Minnesota won the division five times from 2002 to 2009, including making the ALCS in 2002. One must wonder what could have happened if the team had more playoff experience during the 2001 campaign. 1992 Season Expectation: The Twins were coming off a World Series win in 1991, and expectations were that the club would be in contention for another title. They had a strong core of Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Shane Mack, and Scott Erickson. Minnesota entered play on Aug. 4 in a three-way tie atop the American League with Oakland and Toronto. The Twins were in position to become the first back-to-back World Series winner since the Yankees in the late 1970s. Disappointment: Instead of building on their success, the Twins faltered down the stretch, finishing 27-29 after that day in early August. Minnesota finished six games behind Oakland in the West division and missed the playoffs. To add insult to injury, 1991 World Series hero Jack Morris signed with Toronto and helped them win the pennant. Despite having personnel similar to their 1991 championship team, they ran out of gas in the second half, leading to one of the most disappointing post-title letdowns in franchise history. It was just the start of a downward slide, too. These seasons were painful for fans, as they all followed periods of high expectations or early success. How would you rank the seasons described above? Should other seasons make the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

There’s a slim chance the Twins will be fighting for their playoff lives on Sunday. If the team is eliminated, Minnesota deserves the chance to say goodbye to Max Kepler? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, the Twins announced that Max Kepler’s regular season is likely done. Kepler received a cortisone shot in his hip last week for an injury that has kept him out since the beginning of the month. He faced live pitching on Monday, but the decision was made that he isn’t healthy enough to help the Twins in their potential playoff push. “I could’ve shut it down completely and said, ‘Let’s do what’s necessary here for moving forward and my health,’ but I thought cortisone shots would help just to see if I can push out some more of my ability,” Kepler said. “At this moment, in all honesty, I think the guys on the roster have a better shot than me.” Kepler is the longest-tenured member of the organization, having signed with the Twins in 2009 as a 16-year-old from Germany. Minnesota signed him to a six-year, $44 million extension before the 2019 season. He is headed to free agency this winter for the first time in his career. His longevity in a Twins uniform has him among the team’s top 20 hitters in multiple categories, including home runs (12th) and games (16th). “I haven’t really decompressed and looked back on every moment as a Twin but I’m truly grateful and this is not really bothering [me] too much on my way out,” Kepler said. “Obviously, I want to go out on a higher note, but I mean add the minor league years into it, 15 years of my life – half my life as a Twin– I don’t think I could have done much more as a kid from Berlin.” The Twins find themselves in a challenging situation heading into this weekend’s series with Baltimore. Minnesota has a slim chance of earning the final AL Wild Card spot, but it will take a strong performance in the team’s final games. Sunday’s contest at Target Field might decide whether or not the club qualifies for the playoffs for the fourth time in the last six seasons. There is also a chance that the season finale will be inconsequential for either team. If the Twins are eliminated, giving Kepler a Target Field send-off is only fitting. He could be activated before Sunday’s game to occupy a spot on the bench or begin the game as the DH. Minnesota could give him one final at-bat in front of the hometown fans so they can show their appreciation for everything he has accomplished in a Twins uniform. “This game comes with a lot of unexpected adversity and challenges,” Kepler said. “I’m proud of myself for what I’ve done as an individual, as a teammate, as a friend to everyone in this clubhouse.” Kepler will finish his Twins tenure with a career 102 OPS+ while also being one of baseball’s best defensive right-fielders. He’s likely headed to the Twins Hall of Fame when he finishes his career because of what he’s meant to the organization on and off the field. Minnesota likely won’t have payroll space to bring him back next season, so fans deserve the chance to honor Kepler. What’s your favorite Kepler memory? Will he get one more at-bat for the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Max Kepler has been tagged in more than 700 articles at Twins Daily. Spend some time perusing the history. View full article

A particular segment of a team's fan base will always doubt star players unless they perform at an MVP level. Byron Buxton proved his naysayers wrong on multiple fronts in 2024. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Byron Buxton has heard it all during his big-league career: “He will never hit for power,” “He gets injured too much,” “The Twins shouldn't have given him that big contract.” The list of doubters and naysayers is lengthy for the former number two overall pick, who has become an All-Star outfielder during his decade-long big-league career. So, what has he proven in 2024, and what does that mean for 2025 and beyond? Doubt 1: He will never hit for power. Buxton was seen as the prototype of a traditional leadoff hitter for much of his early career. His blazing speed and game-changing defense made him a natural fit at the top of the lineup. Yet, as time wore on, Buxton’s approach began to shift. Rather than focusing on simply getting on base, he embraced his raw power, developing into a middle-of-the-order force. Buxton has showcased his power potential in previous seasons, but the 2024 campaign proved that his previous power surge was no fluke. His 138 OPS+ is his second-highest total, with only his 2021 season ranking higher. In that season, he combined for 23 doubles and 19 home runs but was limited to 61 games because of injury. His xSLG, wOBA, and xwOBACON rank in the top 7% among MLB hitters. He also dropped his K% from 31.4% last season (bottom 8% of MLB) to 26.0 in 2024. The leadoff Buxton was exciting, but the slugging Buxton? He’s elite. Doubt 2: He gets injured too much. Injuries have permanently shadowed Buxton’s career. For all his electrifying talent, he couldn’t seem to stay on the field long enough to reach his full potential. That’s why it felt like a breakthrough when Buxton played over 100 games for the second time in his career in 2024. Sure, he spent time on the injured list, but this year was different—he returned stronger and continued to play centerfield on a regular basis. Last season, Buxton was never healthy enough to play in center field, so the team had him serve as the DH. In 2024, he logged over 740 innings in center, a total he hasn’t achieved since 2017. His defense has also been near the top of the scale compared to other defenders. His OAA and Arm Strength rank in the 82nd percentile or higher. He fought through nagging injuries, making it clear that he was determined to prove the narrative wrong. Doubt 3: The Twins shouldn't have given him that big contract. When Buxton signed his 7-year, $100 million extension, some felt the contract was a bargain, given his ceiling. Others worried it was an overpay for a player who couldn’t stay healthy. In 2024, Buxton demonstrated his worth to the Twins, and fans have seen this in previous seasons. FanGraphs converts WAR to a dollar scale based on what a player would make in free agency. In 2024, the Twins are paying Buxton $15.1 million, but according to FanGraphs, his value has been worth $27.4 million to Minnesota. Prior to this season, Buxton had been worth $24.8 million or more in four of his seven full seasons. Buxton is an elite player who provides tremendous value when he finds a way to stay on the field. There will be fans who constantly criticize a player who misses time due to injury. Unfortunately, the days have long passed when a player could regularly play 162 games in a season. In Buxton’s case, he can provide tremendous value even if he is limited to 100 games or fewer. It’s a tricky concept to grasp, especially for fans who grew up watching baseball in a different era. In a season filled with doubt, questions, and speculation, Buxton proved that he’s not only the player the Twins hoped for but the one they need. He transformed himself from a speedy leadoff man to a power-hitting slugger, played over 100 games for just the second time in his career, and demonstrated why his contract extension was a wise move by the front office. 2024 may very well go down as the year Buxton silenced some of his doubters, but there will always be naysayers in any fanbase. And for Twins fans, this could be just the beginning of a new era—an era defined by Buxton’s excellence. What stands out about Buxton's 2024 season? What are your expectations for him next season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Short-season leagues allow players to get their first taste of life as a professional baseball player. Here are the hitters in the Twins organization that had the strongest seasons for their short-season affiliates. Not every prospect can find success in a short-season league. By their nature, short-season leagues are limited in what players can showcase because of the sample sizes involved in a limited number of games and at-bats. Sometimes, top prospects thrive in this environment, while others might start the year slow and not have time for their numbers to improve. Overall, some players clearly thrive against the level of competition in the low minors, and that can help raise their overall prospect stock. Before we get into the hitters that impressed this season, here are the previous winners of this award: 2016: Lewin Diaz 2017: Akil Baddoo 2018: Chris Williams 2019: Matt Wallner 2021: Kala'i Rosario 2022: Jose Rodriguez 2023: Dameury Pena Before getting into this year’s top hitters, here are some of the other hitters who received votes from the Twins Daily minor league writers. Honorable Mentions C Ricardo Pena, FCL Twins, 33 G, .361/.481/.488 (.970), 8 2B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 18 BB, 21 K. OF Merphy Hernandez, DSL Twins, 48 G, .276/.390/.417 (.806), 4 2B, 6 3B, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 28 BB, 30 K, 36 SB. C/1B Irvin Nunez, DSL Twins, 27 G, .299/.454/.508 (.961), 6 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 15 BB, 10 K. 2B Dameury Pena, FCL Twins, 36 G, .282/.386/.410 (.796), 4 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 19 BB, 9 K. Short-Season Hitter of the Year Here are the top three players for the Twins Daily Hitter of the Year, including a nearly unanimous choice for the Short-Season Minor League Hitter of the Year. 3. SS Daiber De Los Santos, DSL Twins 40 G, 53-176, .301/.384/.460 (.844), 11 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 18 BB, 63 K, 17-for-24 SB. The Twins signed De Los Santos when the 2024 international signing period opened in January. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the number eight international prospect, and said he “might have the overall best raw tools in the class.” De Los Santos was able to showcase his tools during his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League. In June, he went 13-for-57 (.228 BA) in 17 games with two doubles and four home runs, the most homers he hit in any month. His OPS dipped by 104 points in July but he continued to get on base 35% of the time. He drew double-digit walks, which helped him to score 13 runs in the month. De Los Santos put an exclamation mark on his season during August. In 12 games, he hit .431/.482/.588 (1.070) with six doubles and one triple. His high OBP also let him be a menace on the bases. He went 8-for-10 in stolen base attempts to raise his season total to 16 steals. A significant amount of his damage came against left-handed pitchers, as his OPS versus lefties (1.193) was nearly 450 points higher than versus righties. All but 25 of his plate appearances came against older pitchers. He also showed the ability to come up big with two outs and runners in scoring position by posting a .934 OPS. He’s a long way from Target Field, but he is a teenage player to get excited about in the coming years. 2. CF Yasser Mercedes, FCL Twins/Fort Myers 51 G, 56-169, .331/.421/.568 (.989), 18 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 24 BB, 39 K, 18-for-23 SB. The Twins signed Mercedes for $1.7 million during the 2022 international signing period, where he was considered one of the top available players. Last season, he dealt with a nagging shoulder injury, impacting his overall numbers in his first stateside season. He quickly put those injury concerns behind him in 2024 with a breakout performance in the FCL. In May, he hit .344/.432/.547 (.979) with seven extra-base hits and 12 stolen bases in 18 games. It was a solid start to his season that showcased his five-tool talent. In June (18 G), he continued to hit well by going 18-for-56 (.321 BA) with six doubles and two home runs. He punctuated his season in July with a 1.043 OPS in his final 15 games in the FCL. Even more impressive, he had nearly as many walks (7 BB) as strikeouts (9 K). The Twins promoted him to Fort Myers for his final ten games, where he went 5-for-40. As a right-handed hitter, his splits were nearly identical versus righties (.886 OPS) and lefties (.828 OPS). He also did similarly well against younger and older pitchers, with his OPS only being separated by less than 50 points. He was named a Florida Complex League All-Star in September. Mercedes should spend all of 2025 at a full-season affiliate for the first time in his career. 1. OF Eduardo Beltre, DSL Twins 43 G, 47-144, .326/.453/.618 (1.071), 9 2B, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 28 BB, 43 K, 10-for-14 SB. Like De Los Santos, Beltre was considered one of the top international prospects in the 2024 signing class. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 39th overall prospect and said he is “a powerful athlete with an aggressive approach at the plate and could one day sport plus tools across the board.” His aggressive approach helped him to combine for 20 extra-base hits in 43 games, but it came at the cost of a 23.8 K%. Beltre’s bat started hot and didn’t cool off throughout the season. In June, he started the season by going 10-for-27 with three extra-base hits and a 1.182 OPS in ten games. His on-base numbers were helped by coaxing ten walks in 38 plate appearances. During July, Beltre hit .277/.422/.508 (.929) with three doubles and four home runs. His high on-base percentage allowed him to impact the game on the bases by going 4-for-5 in stolen base attempts. He destroyed the ball in the season’s final month. In 14 games, he hit five doubles and five home runs for a .691 SLG, his highest total in any month. It was an exclamation point on a tremendous 2024 campaign. He had 25 plate appearances versus younger pitchers this season and posted a 1.405 OPS. As a right-handed hitter, his splits versus lefties and righties were separated by 110 points, but both were over 1.000 OPS. Beltre finished tied for second in the DSL in home runs, and his OPS ranked third among qualified hitters. He was named a Dominican Summer League All-Star after the season. It was an exciting professional debut, and the Twins hope Beltre can continue to showcase his talent as he climbs the organizational ladder. Congratulations to this year’s winners. How would you rank these players on your ballot? Should a different player have made the top 3? 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MLB is touting rising attendance across the league. However, things haven’t gone as planned for the Twins. What does that mean moving forward? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, MLB.com wrote about the league's rising attendance this season, including reaching a new milestone. It will be the second consecutive year that attendance has risen, and MLB believes those increases are tied to the rule changes instituted leading into the 2023 campaign. According to the report, it will be the first time baseball has had consecutive years of attendance gains since the 2011-12 seasons. MLB also notes that attendance is up 10% compared to 2022 and will be the highest-attended season since 2017. Last winter, the Twins wanted to build off MLB's momentum and set a goal of surpassing the 2 million fan mark for the first time since before the pandemic. Minnesota will fall short of that goal, though. They're the boat the rising tide can't lift. So, why did this happen, and what are the long-term ramifications for the organization? At the onset of the offseason, it made sense for the Twins’ brass to expect a rise in attendance. Vibes around the team were positive, after the club won its first playoff series in over two decades. On-field success usually translates to more interest in the club and higher season ticket sales. It didn't materialize in this case, though, and it's not hard to see why. On-field success usually also translates to more investment in the club and higher expectations entering the following season. Those things didn't materialize last offseason, either. In February, Twins executive chair Joe Pohlad announced that they needed to “right-size” the business, resulting in a payroll cut of over $30 million, which had become evident over a maddeningly inactive winter. This cut meant the Twins front office had little to spend, and had to trade Jorge Polanco to free up payroll space. Minnesota was in the middle of a winning window, and the ownership’s senseless penny-pinching disheartened fans. The team’s complex television situation is another factor in this year’s attendance drop. Last winter, the Twins were television free agents who could have gone in a new direction to maximize their accessibility. Instead, the club re-signed with Diamond Sports Group, a company dealing with bankruptcy issues over the last two seasons and mired in disputes with the major carriers through whom fans watched. Minnesota received an estimated $35-45 million in their new deal, but that influx didn’t result in any additional offseason moves. After the season began, the contract between Bally Spots North and Comcast expired without an agreement on a renewal, which kept the Twins off of many television screens in the Upper Midwest for multiple months. Fewer eyes on games is going to mean less interest in the current team, and thus lower attendance. Minnesota has had three seasons where more than 3 million fans attended games, including 1988, 2010, and 2011. All of those seasons have reasons why fan interest was high. In 1988, the club was coming off the team’s first World Series championship. In 2010 and 2011, Target Field was brand new, and fans wanted to experience outdoor baseball for the first time in decades. The Twins’ last season with more than 2 million fans was the 2019 campaign, when the Bomba Squad set the all-time home run record. The Twins are averaging just over 24,000 fans per game during the 2024 season. That ranks 23rd across MLB, with only five AL teams behind them in the rankings. The Twins would need to average over 27,000 fans per game in their final homestand to surpass last year’s 1,974,124 attendance total. That seems unlikely, with the team’s recent play and three games during that stretch against the unbeloved Marlins. Some fans will point to the team’s shortcomings this season and suggest the ownership group will see the error of their ways and invest in the 2025 roster. Unfortunately, the Pohlads have operated the Twins like a business throughout their tenure, and that isn’t going to change next season. Lower-than-expected attendance and a chance the team misses the playoffs are scary propositions for next season’s expected payroll. Leadership myopic enough to slash payroll after such a potentially galvanizing season is likely to follow the same pattern in the face of a frustrating one that saw revenue sag. Thanks to their huge volume of games, MLB is the most attended sports league in the world. However, the Twins need to make some fundamental changes if they want to increase their attendance in the coming years. It sure looks like they'll make merely cosmetic changes, and probably not even ones that take them in the right direction. Is the team’s attendance drop surprising? How will attendance impact next season’s payroll? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Baseball’s grueling 162-game schedule culminates in a sprint to the finish line during the postseason. If the Twins get in, do they have the right recipe to make a run in October? Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports There are no dominant teams in baseball this season as it is on pace to be the first season since 2014 where no club will finish with 100 wins. The last season without a 100-win team saw the Giants and Royals face off in the World Series, and both teams failed to win 90 games in the regular season. Only six 100-win teams have won the World Series since 1995. Last season, the Rangers scuffled their way into the playoffs and found a way to get hot at the right time. Baseball is different in October, and some teams built for regular season success don’t have the recipe to win when the postseason begins. MLB’s playoff format lends itself to parity, especially with more Wild Card spots. Baseball is a game of individual match-ups disguised as a team sport. In other major sports, one superstar player can carry a team to postseason success. Baseball doesn’t fit that mold. The Angels had three inner-circle Hall of Fame members in recent seasons (Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and Albert Pujols) and failed to find any postseason success. The Twins need to find a way to qualify for October, and then they need to ensure their recipe for success can be optimized. Starting Pitching Recipe Minnesota’s top two starting pitchers, Pablo López and Bailey Ober, match up well against any opponent's top rotation options. Things get murky for the Twins, especially with Joe Ryan out of the picture. Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa would be the team’s other starting options, and both have produced inconsistent performances in the season’s final month. It’s also important to note that the Twins' free fall in recent weeks puts them at a disadvantage. Some teams will be able to line up their best pitchers for a potential Wild Card Series, but the Twins might need to use their top arms to qualify for the postseason over the final weekend. Ober is scheduled to start on Tuesday against Miami, which lines him up to pitch the season’s final game on Sunday versus Baltimore. The Twins will likely need to win both of those games. López started on Sunday, making him available again for Friday’s game against the Orioles. In this scenario, López and Ober would be unavailable for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. López could start Game 2 on regular rest, but Ober would be on short rest for Game 3 if he pitches on Sunday. Offensive Recipe Minnesota’s offense has scuffled in recent weeks to the point where the Twins rank among the league’s worst-hitting groups. Since August 1st, the Twins have the AL’s third-lowest wRC+ (78), with only the White Sox and Royals rankings lower. Over that same stretch, Minnesota’s power disappeared, with an SLG, OPS, and wOBA ranking 28th overall. The Twins have scored three runs or fewer in ten of the 21 games played this month. It has been painful to watch, especially on nights when the pitching staff has held the opposition to three runs or fewer (eight times). Playoff baseball is a different animal compared to what batters see in the regular season. Home runs become critical as teams rely on their top starting pitchers and relievers. There are rarely innings where a team can string three or four hits to score a run. Instead, teams must get a bloop and a blast to push across multiple runs. Despite some September struggles, the Twins offense is hitting the ball hard with 37% of the time, ranking 17th in MLB. Minnesota also continues to pull the ball at a 43.0% rate, the fourth-highest total in the AL during September. The team's ability to hit the ball hard to the pull side might result in more luck in October. Bullpen Recipe Twins manager Rocco Baldelli has gotten plenty of criticism for his bullpen usage in the season’s second half. However, he has few levers to pull in an untrustworthy group. Fans witnessed the bullpen cough up multiple leads in Cleveland before using nine pitchers for a 12-inning marathon win in Boston. Griffin Jax has been the team’s best reliever this season and has shown some vulnerabilities in the second half. Jhoan Durán and Cole Sands have also played important roles, but a playoff team needs more than three relief options. Minnesota has relied on Jax for most of the season, and he might be showing signs of depleting down the stretch. His -0.28 WPA is the third-lowest total this month, with only Ronny Henriquez and Cole Irvin ranking lower. Some of that negative WPA results from the Twins forcing him into challenging situations in recent weeks. Duran (0.57 WPA) and Sands (0.31 WPA) are joined by Scott Blewett (0.34 WPA) as the trio of relievers with a positive WPA this month. Relievers work in small sample sizes, so reading too much into the bullpen’s September struggles is tough. There is some hope that Chris Paddack and Justin Topa will rejoin the team this week, but the team is running out of games for those upgrades to make an impact. The Twins have a large task facing them this week, with their playoff spot out of their own control. Thankfully, there are some positive signs among the team’s core group even as the losses have compiled. Minnesota’s recipe might not be fully functional in the regular season, but the playoffs offer a chance for a fresh start. If the Twins get in, can they find the right recipe to win in October? Does it help that there are no dominant teams in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Baseball’s final week of the season can produce drama. Four AL teams, including three Central foes, are vying for two Wild Card spots. So, how do the teams stack up, and what are the spiraling Twins' chances? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jay Biggerstaff, Brad Rempel, Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports As the final week of the 2024 season unfolds, the American League Wild Card race is heating up, and it’s a battle few saw coming. The Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners are locked in a fierce four-team food fight for the final two Wild Card spots. With October looming, every game and every pitch could swing the momentum, and the drama is just beginning. Kansas City Royals (Current Record: 82-74) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.6% Remaining Schedule: 3 Games @ Washington, 3 Games @ Atlanta The Royals have been freefalling in recent weeks, with a 7-11 record in September. Entering play on Sept. 1, FanGraphs had them at a 79.5% chance to make the playoffs, which has only dropped slightly despite their poor play; they can thank the Twins for that. Their final week schedule is tough, because they have to go on the road for six games, and they have a 37-38 record away from Kauffman Stadium. Few thought Kansas City would be in this position in 2024, and they have been one of baseball’s best stories throughout the season. In a weird schedule quirk, the Royals finish the season with three straight series against NL opponents, including two road series to end the year in Washington and Atlanta. The Nationals have the third-worst record in the NL and have been outscored by 100 runs. They've been playing solely for pride for multiple weeks, and they clearly don't have much of that; they just had to demote starting shortstop C.J. Abrams to the minor leagues after he stayed out until morning at a Chicago casino. This opponent might come precisely at the time when Kansas City desperately needs to get back on track. Atlanta is a much different story, as they need to track down the Mets or Diamondbacks over the final week to earn a playoff spot. That series figures to be a brawl, and makes the Royals' path to the postseason fairly perilous. They have ace lefty Cole Ragans pitching Tuesday night in Washington, and therefore, they'll have the option to use him again Sunday if a berth is on the line. Detroit Tigers (Current Record: 82-74) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 69.2% Remaining Schedule: 3 vs. Tampa, 3 vs. Chicago (AL) The Tigers have moved from an afterthought in the AL to a serious contender, due to a hot stretch since the trade deadline. As a reminder, the Tigers were active sellers at the deadline, dealing away Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly. Detroit responded with a 17-11 record (.607 W-L%) in August and have played at an even hotter pace in September, with a 12-6 record (.667 W-L%). On Aug. 1, FanGraphs pegged the Tigers as having a 0.5% chance of making the playoffs. It’s been an unbelievable run, no matter what happens this week. Detroit starts the final week by facing Tampa at home. The Rays have hovered around the .500 mark in a tough AL East with two strong teams at the top. Tampa is pesky even when they struggle and are 11-10 this month, so they should provide a competitive series, despite not being in the playoff race. The schedule makers inadvertently gave the Tigers a massive gift on the season’s final weekend--one that might help them secure a playoff berth. Three games against the Chicago White Sox, the worst baseball team in history, should allow Detroit to end the year on a high note. Chicago has five wins in September, more than they accumulated in July or August. Minnesota fans have to hope the White Sox can steal one game in the series. Likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal pitches Tuesday, just like Ragans, and can pitch twice this week if the team needs him Sunday. Minnesota Twins (Current Record: 81-75) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 54.7% Remaining Schedule 3 vs. Miami, 3 vs. Baltimore The Twins have posted a .500 record or above in every month of the season, except for September. On Sept. 1, FanGraphs projected the Twins’ playoff odds at 91.7%, with a 20% chance to still win the AL Central. Cleveland clinched the division over the weekend, and Minnesota has seen their playoff chances shrink significantly. After a frustrating series in Boston, the Twins find themselves on the outside looking in for the final spot. Minnesota also has arguably the toughest remaining strength of schedule between these four teams. A three-game series against Miami allows the Twins to put themselves back into the playoff picture. The Marlins are the NL’s worst team this season, and they have been outscored by over 220 runs. Minnesota is projected to start Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa in the three-game set that may very well decide their playoff fate. In the year's final series, the Twins will face the Orioles, who will likely have little to play for in the three-game set. Baltimore is all but locked into the top Wild Card spot, and will have an opportunity to line up their playoff rotation and rest some of their regular players. The Twins must take advantage of a lesser version of the Orioles. Ober could pitch Sunday, as well as Tuesday, and Pablo López will pitch Friday or Saturday, assuming the weekend games still matter. Seattle Mariners (Current Record: 80-76) FanGraphs Playoff Odds: 6.1% Remaining Schedule: 3 @ Houston, 3 vs. Oakland Poor play by the Twins and Royals has thrust the Mariners back into the playoff picture. Seattle played sub-.500 ball in July and August, before a modest September surge that might save their playoff hopes. When the month started, Seattle had a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs, and they're more or less in the same spot now. After a heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Mariners will need help from the AL Central contenders while facing two division foes who know them well. The Mariners have done surprisingly well against the Astros this season, with a 6-4 record heading into their final three-game set. However, they haven’t faced each other since mid-July, and Houston has played significantly better in the second half of the season. It will be a tough series, especially for a team 10 games below .500 on the road. Seattle ends the year at home, with a three-game series against an Oakland team that has gone 3-7 in its last 10 contests. These two teams know each other well, with the Mariners holding a 6-4 advantage so far in 2024. The Twins find themselves in an interesting situation, with three teams standing between them and a playoff spot. Sunday's doubleheader double whammy also means the Twins don't control their own fate. Based on their head-to-head matchups this season, the Twins hold the tiebreaker against all three teams, which might turn out to be the difference between making or missing the playoffs, but they have to play well over their final two series to make those tiebreakers matter. How will the final week play out for the AL Wild Card contenders? Add your record and playoff predictions in the comments, below. View full article

Over the last two seasons, Bailey Ober has established himself as one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. The Twins have seen few pitchers of Ober’s caliber come through the system over the last two decades. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports It can be challenging for fans of any organization to look on the bright side when a team is In the middle of a frustrating stretch of games. Fingers get pointed at the players, the manager, and the ownership group for various reasons. However, one thing has become abundantly clear in the season’s second half– Bailey Ober is one of the American League’s best starting pitchers. The Twins drafted Ober in the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft from the College of Charleston. He fits a specific type of pitcher this front office has targeted in drafting and developing. He’s a tall, right-handed pitcher from a lesser-known college who can add velocity and improve his pitch mix. During the 2020 season, Ober worked on his strength, conditioning, and pitching mechanics to increase his velocity and put himself on the prospect map. Ober made his big-league debut during the 2021 season with mixed results. In 92 1/3 innings, he posted a 4.19 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and 9.4 K/9. He improved during the 2022 season, with his ERA (3.21) and WHIP (1.05) dropping. However, he was limited to less than 60 innings as he bounced up and down from Triple-A. Ober has established himself at the big-league level over the last two seasons. Since 2023, he ranks 10th among AL starting pitchers in fWAR. His BB/9, K/9, BABIP, and LOB% rank in the top five among AL starters, and his WPA is ahead of pitchers like Pablo López, Luis Castillo, and Kevin Gausman. He’s in an elite company and seems to be finding another level in 2024. So, what does it mean to be homegrown? Many fans will argue over what it truly means to be homegrown. In recent years, the Twins have added Joe Ryan, who had yet to make his big-league debut but had been drafted and developed in the Rays system. He’s continued to develop as a pitcher since joining the organization, but Minnesota didn’t draft him. For this article, the pitchers below were drafted and developed in the Twins organization. Here are some of the other homegrown options for the Twins over the last two decades. Homegrown Option 1: José Berríos The Twins drafted Berríos with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft out of high school in Puerto Rico. He quickly became a top-100 prospect and peaked as a consensus top-30 prospect entering the 2016 season. Berríos spent parts of six seasons in a Twins uniform and was selected to two All-Star teams. In over 780 innings, he posted a 4.08 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP while accumulating 10.0 WAR with two seasons of 3.5 WAR or higher. During his Twins tenure, he was considered among the AL’s best-starting pitchers, so he’s the most recent homegrown pitcher at a similar level to Ober. Homegrown Option 2: Kyle Gibson Gibson was selected by the Twins with the 22nd pick in the 2009 MLB Draft from the University of Missouri. (Pay no attention to the future Hall of Fame outfielder taken shortly after him). Gibson was never an All-Star with the Twins, but he compiled solid numbers over seven seasons. He posted a 4.52 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP in over 1000 innings. That doesn’t tell the whole story of his Twins tenure. He led the team in rWAR during the 2015 season and finished second during the 2018 season behind Eddie Rosario. Gibson likely ranks behind Berríos in the homegrown rankings, but he’s managed to pitch 12 seasons and make an All-Star team. Homegrown Option 3: Scott Baker The Twins took Baker with their second-round pick in 2003 from Oklahoma State University. He pitched 958 innings across seven seasons with the Twins and posted a 4.15 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP. His best season was in 2008 when he posted a 3.45 ERA in 172 1/3 innings and finished second on the team in rWAR behind Joe Mauer. Baker fits the mold of the previous front office regime with a low strikeout rate and the ability to pound the zone with strikes. He outperformed expectations but ranks behind Gibson and Berríos. Other pitchers are potentially on their way to joining the names listed above. David Festa and Zebby Matthews have shot up prospect rankings based on their 2024 performance. Minnesota has other pitchers in the farm system who are expected to impact the big-league roster in the coming years, including Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, and Charlee Soto. There are no guarantees that any of these arms will be as good as Ober, so it’s time for fans to appreciate how good he has been for the Twins. Is Ober the best homegrown pitcher in recent memory? Should any other pitchers be in the conversation? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota's superstar shortstop has missed time in each of the last two seasons due to plantar fasciitis. Does his recurring injury point to the Twins needing to make a long-term defensive switch? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Everything was going great for Carlos Correa during the first half of the 2024 season. He had recovered from the plantar fasciitis that plagued him during the previous year, and hit .308/.377/.520 with 16 doubles and 13 home runs. Correa was named to the AL All-Star team for the first time in a Twins uniform, and he'd helped the Twins fight back from a disastrous start to the season to put the team into playoff contention. It might have been the high point of his Twins' tenure--and then, that blasted foot thing happened again. The Twins placed Correa on the injured list coming out of the All-Star break for treatment of plantar fasciitis in his right foot, the opposite of the one that flared up in 2023. At the time, it was seen as precautionary rest--the kind he didn’t get last season. The Twins and Correa spoke optimistically about him returning quickly to help the team in the second half. Unfortunately, the injury took longer than expected, including a new treatment that Correa called “painful to the point it would bring tears to my eyes.” After a two-month stint on the IL, he returned to the Twins, but he's clearly playing at something less than 100% health. Over the last two seasons, age and his growing injury history have changed Correa’s long-term defensive outlook. He continues to provide value at shortstop, with an overall Outs Above Average rating and Arm Strength that each rank in the 80th percentile or higher. One of the reasons the Twins were willing to sign Correa to a lucrative long-term deal was because of the value he provides on both sides of the ball. Few guys can play one of baseball’s most demanding positions throughout their careers. It might be time for the Twins to start considering whether a position switch is in the best long-term interest of Correa and his health. One of the most common positional switches for shortstops is to move to third base. Correa was willing to move to third base with the Mets, before New York backed out of their deal due to concerns over his injury-repaired ankle. The Twins could consider moving Correa to third, but that position might inflict of the same wear and tear, because of how baseball teams now position third basemen and what they ask of those players in terms of range. His plantar fasciitis may continue to flare up at the hot corner, and the club might need to consider other options. Another potential option is to move Correa to first base, a position with demonstrably lighter defensive responsibilities. Minnesota has seen firsthand how valuable first base defense can be this year, with Carlos Santana expected to win the AL Gold Glove. An argument can be made that the Twins should bring back Santana next season, because of what he has provided to the club. However, the Twins have shown a propensity to add veteran position players for one year and let them walk for the following season (e.g., Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano, and Gio Urshela). Given that the team also faces severe financial constraints this winter, first figures to be open. It seems unlikely Correa would want to move to first base, but it might be in the best long-term interest of his health. Hall of Fame shortstop Ernie Banks extended his career and ensured his own longevity with a mid-career move to first base. Correa, a student of the game well aware of the unforgiving aging curve of the modern game, might find that example instructive. So, who would be the replacement for Correa at shortstop? Brooks Lee is the natural choice, since he has primarily played shortstop throughout his collegiate and professional career. His defense at shortstop is worse than Correa's, but he is younger and has a high baseball IQ. Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average currently peg him as roughly average there, but the sample is tiny. He has shown some flaws at the position, and his defensive shortcomings might be more evident over a 162-game season. On the other hand, he's looked great going to his right, and made some impressive plays. The Twins have Correa under team control for at least four more seasons, and a defensive switch has to be on the table at some point. If his feet keep bothering him, Correa must be open to moving to a less demanding defensive position. The Twins have a viable alternative to him, si next spring could be the right time for that shift. Do the Twins need to consider a switch with Correa for next season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article