Cody Christie

Minnesota is in the middle of one of its most challenging weeks of the season. However, one win back in April might have saved its playoff hopes. Baseball, with its 162-game marathon of a regular season, often tempts fans and players to believe that early-season games aren’t as critical as those down the stretch. After all, it’s a long grind, and a single game in April can feel like a blip in the grand scheme of things. Yet, in the modern playoff structure, every game carries weight, and sometimes, even a seemingly unimportant April afternoon can hold immense consequences for the postseason race. For the Twins, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi identified one game in a doubleheader against the Detroit Tigers that could be the game that saved their season. On that day, the Tigers entered the eighth inning holding a 3-to-2 lead, poised to hand the Twins a significant divisional loss. Detroit had an expected winning percentage of over 70% entering that inning. Carlos Santana and Kyle Farmer flew out to start the frame, raising the Tigers' expected winning percentage to 80% with only four outs remaining. It looked like it was going to be a heartbreaking loss for the Twins. Alex Kirilloff was due up for the Twins, and with a lefty on the mound (Tyler Holton), the Twins decided to bring in Ryan Jeffers as a pinch hitter. Detroit countered and brought in a righty, Shelby Miller, to face Jeffers. In the at-bat, Jeffers got ahead in the count 2-0 before smashing a game-tying home run. From there, the game got even more interesting. The game went to extra innings, with neither team scoring in the 10th frame. Jeffers knocked in the go-ahead run with a single in the top of the 11th, but Detroit tied it in the bottom half of the inning. Byron Buxton started on second base at the top of the 12th, and Detroit walked Willi Castro on four pitches. Christian Vázquez attempted a sacrifice bunt, but the Tigers messed up the play and didn’t record an out. Austin Martin walked with the bases loaded to give the Twins a one-run lead. Kyle Farmer and Carlos Santana struck out looking for the first two outs of the innings, so Jeffers was up again in a prominent spot. He hit a ground ball between shortstop and third base, resulting in an E5 and three runs scoring. Matt Wallner capped off the frame with a three-run bomb to put an exclamation point on the win. At the time, it felt like just another game between two AL Central rivals. But as the season unfolds and the playoff picture sharpens, that one victory looms large. Heading into that game, the Tigers were right in the mix for the division lead, and with the AL Central as tightly contested as ever, each head-to-head matchup carried extra significance. Had the Tigers hung on for the win, they would currently own the tiebreaker over the Twins—a crucial factor in a season where tiebreakers have replaced Game 163 as the deciding factor between playoff teams. Even more, the Tigers would be just one game back in the loss column, keeping them within striking distance in the race for October. Instead, Minnesota emerged victorious, creating a buffer between themselves and Detroit that has endured for months. The two errors the Tigers committed in that game were a microcosm of how razor-thin the margins in baseball can be. What seemed like a typical game in April now looms as one of the most consequential days of the season for both clubs. Their ability to edge out Detroit in a key April contest for the Twins may ultimately prove the difference between a Wild Card spot and a missed opportunity. The Tigers’ missteps allowed Minnesota to seize a critical victory and the all-important tiebreaker in the season series. These small moments can ripple through the season and change its entire trajectory. April 13th was not just another game but a pivotal point for both teams. The AL Central race has been incredibly tight, with Minnesota and Detroit frequently battling for position in the standings. Every victory and loss is magnified, and as the season nears its conclusion, the small moments determine whether a team will be playing postseason baseball or watching from home. Has there been a more critical win for the Twins this season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s bullpen has been the center of attention because of the team’s recent struggles. The Twins hope a pitching duo returning from injury can provide a late-season boost. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints As the Twins push toward October, their bullpen has been a point of emphasis in solidifying their postseason roster. A critical component of their strategy could involve welcoming back two key arms: Chris Paddack and Justin Topa. Both hurlers are progressing in their rehab journeys, and the team is hopeful their returns will provide much-needed stability to a bullpen that has seen its share of ups and downs. Paddack, who has been recovering from a right forearm strain, took a significant step forward by throwing his first bullpen session on Friday. This step marked a pivotal moment in his comeback, as Paddack’s potential to offer high-velocity, late-inning relief could be a game-changer. Last season, the Twins used Paddack as a reliever in October in his first action since returning from his second Tommy John surgery. He made two scoreless appearances in October while covering 3 2/3 innings with six strikeouts and no walks. “I can say, next homestand, ‘I want to push,’ and be ready to go for Baltimore or something like that, a little redemption from the beginning of the season,” Paddack said. “But if they want me ready for October, I'll nod my head and say, ‘All right, I'll be ready.’” Similarly, Topa, sidelined for months, threw a 30-pitch bullpen on Saturday. Topa joined the Twins this winter as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. Minnesota hoped he’d be a late-inning bullpen option for the entire season, but a knee injury in spring training has kept him sidelined for the entire year. If both pitchers continue to progress smoothly, they could be viable bullpen options come October. “Whatever it is, a handful of innings at the end of the year and then build that into a playoff push, see what happens -- I think for me, the silver lining is just to get back into games and finish the year healthy,” Topa said. “Have that platform to go into the offseason and get ready for next year.” The Twins have already shown a willingness to adjust their pitching staff, as seen with Louie Varland's transition from the starting rotation to the bullpen. Varland's stuff has ticked up in short bursts, and his velocity and aggressiveness can play up in critical situations. Unfortunately, he allowed six earned runs in one inning on Saturday, which will hurt his overall numbers for the season. Moving him into relief duties indicates that the Twins are committed to maximizing their best arms down the stretch. However, the bullpen hasn’t been without struggles. Jorge Alcala has battled inconsistency, and the usually dominant Jhoan Durán has faced uncharacteristic challenges. Durán, despite his electric stuff, has had issues in non-save situations, but there are still reasons to trust the team’s closer. The back of the Twins’ bullpen includes pitchers like Scott Blewett, Ronny Henriquez, and Michael Tonkin. That trio of pitchers likely won’t be trusted with innings in the playoffs, so the team needs to find reliable arms to help it win critical games. If Paddack and Topa can return to form, their presence could allow Rocco Baldelli to mix and match more effectively in late innings, easing the pressure on Duran and others. With his starter experience, Paddack could be an ideal fit for multi-inning outings. At the same time, Topa’s arsenal makes him a candidate for high-leverage matchups against both righties and lefties. As the regular season's final weeks unfold, the Twins' ability to get these key arms back in action could be a determining factor in their postseason success. What should the Twins expect from Paddack and Topa? Can they be reliable bullpen assets? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

On Saturday, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa were in the same lineup for the first time in the season’s second half. So, are the Twins optimizing their star players as they return from injury? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports As the Twins enter the final stretch of their playoff push, they are navigating the return of two of their biggest stars, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. Both players, having dealt with lingering injuries throughout the season, have been strategically slotted into the lower part of the lineup, a move that may seem surprising given their status. However, a deeper look at the Twins' strategy reveals a cautious yet calculated approach to managing their health. Buxton and Correa, normally fixtures at the top of the Twins' lineup, have returned to more modest spots in the batting order upon returning from injury. On Saturday, the two stars were slotted into the fifth and sixth spots in the batting order. Buxton has battled a hip injury in recent weeks, while Correa is playing through a painful bout of plantar fasciitis. By placing these stars in lower slots, manager Rocco Baldelli is signaling a desire to ease them back into the grind of regular play without putting too much immediate pressure on them. One significant factor in this lineup adjustment could be to provide the Twins with flexibility. By batting Buxton and Correa lower, Baldelli can remove them from games earlier if the situation allows. For a team aiming for October success, preserving the health of their stars down the stretch is crucial. Buxton has historically struggled to stay on the field, and Correa's foot condition has been a day-to-day concern. Giving them fewer plate appearances could reduce the risk of aggravating their injuries while allowing other, healthier players to step up. While their presence on the field offers a clear advantage from a talent standpoint, the emotional boost that typically accompanies the return of cornerstone players has been more muted in this instance. In past years, Buxton's return from injury would inject a surge of energy into the clubhouse and fan base, often coinciding with solid performances. His home run on Friday night was a prime example of how he can step back into the lineup and provide an immediate boost. Both players have played at an All-Star level in 2024, but they've been limited to a combined 168 games. While their potential to contribute remains undeniable, the team is banking on other players to carry the lineup during the final weeks. On Saturday, both Buxton and Correa were removed from the team’s blowout loss, another sign that the Twins are treading carefully with their star duo. This conservative approach continued into Sunday, as neither player was in the lineup. While Buxton and Correa are back on the roster, their health is questionable enough that Baldelli will continue monitoring their playing time when necessary. The timing of this caution is crucial. The Twins currently sit in the final playoff spot, but they have little room for error when it comes to their postseason aspirations. Detroit, Seattle, and Boston are closing in, especially with Minnesota’s recent slump. By limiting Buxton’s and Correa’s exposure during September, the team is taking a long-term view, hoping to have both at least partially healthy for a potential playoff run. Obviously, health is key for any team heading into October. If Buxton and Correa can avoid setbacks, they’ll likely move back into more prominent spots in the lineup during the postseason. Baldelli and the Twins' front office know that a fully operational Buxton (who can deliver Gold Glove-level defense and power) alongside a healthier Correa would elevate their chances of success. In the meantime, expect the team to handle them with care, utilizing the lower spots in the lineup to control their exposure while keeping the Twins competitive. The balance between maximizing their impact and managing their health will be one of Baldelli’s trickiest challenges as the regular season winds down. The Twins are hoping that these small sacrifices now—like fewer at-bats and an occasional early exit—will pay dividends when the games mean even more come October. Are the Twins optimally handling their star players? Should Correa and Buxton be used more for the stretch run? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

One Twins minor leaguer was let go for his actions on the field earlier this week. So, who was the pitcher who took the brunt of the damage in the pitch-tipping scandal? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Earlier this week, ESPN reported that the Twins released 2024 sixth-round pick Derek Bender after a wild series of events. Bender, a catcher, was caught telling the opposition what pitch was coming during a game that had playoff implications for both teams. According to the reports, his reasoning behind tipping pitches was that he wanted the team’s season to be finished so he could go home. Fort Myers lost the game and was eliminated from playoff contention. The pitcher on the mound for this debacle was lefty Ross Dunn, who the Twins selected in the 10th round of the 2023 MLB Draft from Arizona State University. Dunn played his first two collegiate seasons at Florida State, where he pitched very well as a reliever (2.13 ERA, 10.7 K/9) in his freshman season before some struggles as a sophomore (4.88 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 14.4 K/9). During his junior season, he made 15 starts (65 1/3 innings) while allowing 31 earned runs with an 84-to-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota’s scouts likely were drawn to his strong strikeout numbers (11.6 K/9) during his final college season. Dunn didn’t make his professional debut until this season, and all his appearances came at Low-A, where he was slightly older than the average age of the competition. He made 19 appearances (16 starts) with Fort Myers and posted a 6.46 ERA with a 1.60 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. Dunn surrendered more than one hit per inning, and batters combined for a .829 OPS against him. Most of that damage was from right-handed hitters (.881 OPS), as he held lefties to a .693 OPS in 79 plate appearances. Dunn’s performance in his final start, the pitch-tipping incident, was poor as he was charged with four earned runs on five hits in 1 2/3 innings. However, it wasn’t out of character for him to allow big innings in previous appearances. He had three appearances earlier in the year where he allowed six earned runs and three earned runs or more in nine of his 19 appearances. However, his numbers for the season would look different if the pitch-tipping incident were removed. He entered his final start of the season with a 6.03 ERA with opponents batting .264/.343/.452 (.795) against him in 18 appearances. Based on his final start, his ERA jumped nearly half a run, and his opponent’s OPS increased by over 30 points. Bender might have wanted his season to be done, but his actions impacted Dunn’s performance and his final numbers on the season. Dunn had shown some improvements in his recent starts leading into that game. In five games, he had held opponents to a .203/.286/.367 (.653). There are no guarantees that Dunn would have posted strong numbers in that start, but it should have been his performance to dictate. Dunn isn’t a top prospect in the Twins organization, so every appearance is essential for him to make an impression and show improvement. Minnesota’s player development department has also done a good job turning middle-to-late-round draft picks, like Dunn, into pitching prospects that can impact the farm system in recent years. Many players likely felt the same way as Bender, but they were still professionals and had to perform in the season’s final games. Overall, the Twins will likely take into account this incident when evaluating Dunn’s performance during the 2024 campaign. What can Dunn do next season to put himself on the prospect map? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jhoan Durán has struggled through different parts of the 2024 season. Here are three reasons why the Twins should continue to trust their closer in the season’s most important games. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports When you think of the Twins' bullpen in 2024, it's impossible not to focus on Jhoan Durán. He’s been at the center of attention since spring training when his velocity was noticeably lower. An oblique injury meant he was left off the Opening Day roster. After returning from the IL, Durán’s velocity was still lower than in previous seasons, which resulted in a decline in his performance. Durán's recent struggles, particularly in non-save situations, have caused some fans to question his reliability. Despite this, there are plenty of reasons the Twins should remain confident in Durán as a critical figure for their late-inning relief heading into the 2024 postseason and beyond. Reason 1: FIP Pointing to Improvements One of the most telling stats to examine when evaluating a pitcher is their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP focuses on what a pitcher can control—strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs—removing the noise created by fielding and luck-based outcomes. Since the beginning of August (16 appearances), he has posted a 5.14 ERA, but a deeper look shows that his 0.68 FIP is significantly lower than his ERA. This suggests he’s been a victim of bad luck and should experience positive regression if he keeps his process intact. Durán’s FIP in recent weeks has hovered well below his ERA, indicating that his stuff hasn’t fallen off the cliff some might suspect. His strikeout rate remains strong, with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings. Also, he's keeping the walks in check better than many of his bullpen peers, with one free pass in his last 16 appearances. A higher ERA doesn’t mean Durán has suddenly lost his edge; it means the timing of bad breaks and hits falling in tough spots have inflated his runs allowed. Reason 2: Performance in Save Situations Durán’s struggles in non-save situations have been well-documented this season. He’s given up big hits and crooked numbers when the game isn’t on the line, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he’s lost his touch as a closer. Non-save situations can sometimes be deceptive. Pitchers can have different mindsets; sometimes, their approach changes depending on the game context. In Durán’s case, it’s likely not a sign of diminished skill but a byproduct of being less focused or feeling less adrenaline compared to tight, save-clinching spots. In non-save situations (19 1/3 innings), Durán has posted a 6.98 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. When given a save opportunity, he has combined for a 2.17 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 11.2 K/9. The Twins shouldn’t overlook his struggles in non-save spots but shouldn’t overreact. Late-inning, high-leverage outs in playoff settings are where Durán’s value shines, and that’s where the focus should lie. Reason 3: Other Underlying Metrics Despite his decline in velocity this season, other underlying metrics point to Durán being one of baseball’s best relievers. His .304 xSLG is higher than the previous two seasons, but he still ranks in the top 5% of MLB. Also, his xwOBA, xwOBACON, and xERA are all in baseball’s top 8% in 2024. His 2.83 xERA is nearly 130 points lower than his actual ERA. He’s also made significant improvements in how regularly batters are barreling up the ball against him. Last season, batters posted a 7.0 Barrel% and a 3.9 Barrel/PA, while this year, they have accumulated a 3.9 Barrel% and a 2.5 Barrel/PA. Durán’s season-long struggles, particularly in non-save situations, don’t take away from the fact that he’s still one of Minnesota’s best late-inning relievers. His FIP suggests that he’s due for a bounce-back, and his ability to thrive in high-leverage moments is precisely what the Twins need in October. While his ERA may have ticked up, it’s far from a reason to panic. The Twins should continue to trust Durán with the ball in crucial moments, knowing that his raw talent and track record of success outweigh the bumps in the road. Should the Twins still trust Durán? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins and Reds square off at Target Field this weekend, and the two front offices have become familiar with each other in recent seasons. So, how have two pivotal trades played out for both sides? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The Twins and Reds have engaged in some notable trades in recent years, each shaping the future of their respective franchises. First, the Twins acquired Sonny Gray in exchange for prospect Chase Petty ahead of the 2022 season. The second major trade saw the Twins bring in Tyler Mahle and send Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Cincinnati at the 2022 trade deadline. Both deals were geared toward bolstering the Twins’ rotation, but each has had a different impact. The Sonny Gray-Chase Petty Swap In March 2022, the Twins made a decisive move to upgrade their pitching staff by trading for veteran right-hander Gray. Gray had built a strong track record, excelling as a starter for the Oakland Athletics and Cincinnati Reds, and his mix of competitiveness and pitchability made him a natural fit in Minnesota. In exchange, the Reds received Petty, a 2021 first-round pick known for his triple-digit fastball and high upside. Twins' Perspective: Gray provided the Twins with two All-Star-caliber seasons while pitching at the top of the team’s rotation. In his first season with the team, Gray posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over 119 2/3 innings, battling through minor injuries. His 2023 season saw him perform at an even higher level, emerging as one of the AL's top pitchers and being a central figure in Minnesota’s playoff push. In 184 innings, he posted a 2.79 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP while leading MLB in FIP (2.83) and HR/9 (0.4). Gray's ability to mix his repertoire and pitch deep into games made him invaluable, though his durability has always been a question. Following the season, the Twins made Gray a qualifying offer, which he rejected to become a free agent. He signed with the Cardinals, and Minnesota received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft as compensation for his departure. The Twins used the pick to select shortstop Kyle DeBarge from the University of Louisiana-Lafayette. Minnesota’s front office paid a premium for Gray, but they got a draft pick similar to Petty's when Gray left. Reds' Perspective: Petty, the centerpiece of this deal for Cincinnati continues to develop in the Reds’ system, and he was recently promoted to Triple-A while only 21 years old. His velocity remains his most notable attribute, and his off-speed stuff has also seen improvement. In 127 innings, he posted a 4.39 ERA with a 123-to-56 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Petty projects as a potential frontline starter, but it will take more time before we see whether the trade works out in Cincinnati’s favor. The Reds bet on Petty’s raw talent, trading an established arm in Gray for a high-risk, high-reward prospect. The Tyler Mahle Deal The Twins made another splash at the 2022 trade deadline, acquiring Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati. The price for Mahle was steep, as Minnesota shipped Spencer Steer, Steve Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Reds in exchange for the righty. Mahle had a strong track record and was expected to solidify the Twins’ rotation. Twins' Perspective: The Mahle trade didn’t work out as the Twins had hoped. Though he showed flashes of his potential in his first handful of starts with the Twins, Mahle struggled with injuries, including a season-ending shoulder injury in 2023. He was limited to nine starts and 42 innings in Minnesota. Ultimately, his inability to stay healthy has made the trade a sore spot for Minnesota’s front office, and it could be deemed the worst trade in the Twin's history. Mahle left as a free agent last winter, and the Twins faced the reality of having dealt three valuable prospects for a pitcher who was never able to deliver consistently. The Twins made a bold move, betting on Mahle’s ability to be a difference-maker down the stretch in 2022 and beyond. Unfortunately, injuries derailed those plans, leaving the organization and fans wondering what could have been had Mahle stayed healthy. Reds' Perspective: For the Reds, this trade looks like a clear win. Spencer Steer quickly became a core player for Cincinnati, contributing both offensively and defensively with versatility around the infield. Over the last three seasons, he has combined for a 107 OPS+ and finished sixth in the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year voting. He's demonstrated an advanced approach at the plate and solid power. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another critical piece of the deal, posted a 112 OPS+ in 63 games last season. However, he has been limited to a 40 OPS+ in 2024. He suffered a broken bone and ligament damage when he was hit by a pitch at the end of April, and he’s currently on the 60-day IL. His power potential is undeniable, and he figures to be a significant part of Cincinnati’s lineup if he stays healthy. The Reds traded Steve Hajjar to the Guardians organization, where he shifted to a bullpen role. The Twins-Reds trades have produced mixed results for Minnesota. The Gray for Petty swap might work out well for both teams. The Reds will ultimately come out ahead in the Mahle trade, especially with the emergence of Steer and Encarnacion-Strand. What stands out about these two trades? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have officially moved Louie Varland to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. Will another starter join him in the October relief corps? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports With October baseball looming, the Minnesota Twins have an exciting mix of arms. While the rotation seems poised with four solid options (Pablo López, Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson), the club faces an intriguing decision regarding Zebby Matthews. He has risen through the ranks quickly this season, and Matthews’s pitch mix and demeanor on the mound suggest that a move to the bullpen could be the key to unlocking his potential this October. Matthews has relied mainly on a three-pitch mix as a starter, featuring a fastball, slider, and cutter. His fastball has averaged 94.8 MPH, but the movement and location have been essential to his success. When he’s on, Matthews's fastball beautifully sets up the rest of his arsenal. However, the demands of a starter often prevent him from maxing out his velocity. That fastball could tick up a few extra miles per hour in shorter stints, making it a more potent weapon in high-leverage situations. His slider has been another effective tool, with a 39.3 Whiff% and a 23.5 Put Away% when he deploys it with two strikes. When he’s sharp, the break can leave hitters off-balance, and in a relief role, Matthews could rely more heavily on it, knowing he won’t need to conserve energy for multiple innings. His cutter has produced the lowest exit velocity (87.9 MPH) among his top three pitches, but opponents have their highest xSLG (.737) against this pitch. The slider-fastball combination is likely where Matthews would live out of the bullpen. What could truly separate Matthews as a reliever is his ability to pitch aggressively. His strikeout rates have been solid (21.2 K%), but he’s not overpowering. Shorter outings could allow him to attack hitters, challenging them early in the count and working primarily with his best two pitches. He’s also closing in on a career-high number of innings pitched, so a switch to the bullpen can help the Twins to manage his innings and keep him fresh. Minnesota’s bullpen has shown some flaws (or at least signs of overuse) in recent weeks, with the manager having a tough time relying on anyone outside of Griffin Jax. Jhoan Durán has allowed seven earned runs in his last 10 innings pitched, but has a 0.88 FIP and a .483 BABIP allowed in that same span. Cole Sands has shown the ability to pitch multiple innings and get outs in high-leverage situations. Jorge Alcalá has allowed runs in five of his last 11 appearances after earning a late-inning role in the season’s middle months. Matthews can’t be a savior for this group, but he can provide another viable option, in the stead of Alcalá if needed or in support of all four of those named above. Matthews can serve as a swing piece out of the bullpen—ready to enter at critical moments and provide the flexibility Rocco Baldelli values in late-game situations. Also, the postseason always demands flexibility, and teams that can get creative with their pitching staff often succeed more. Matthews could give the Twins that much-needed versatility in October. Whether providing a bridge in the middle innings or stepping up in high-leverage situations, his ability to shift to the bullpen could be a game-changer. The Twins have seen how valuable converted starters can be in relief roles. Durán, Jax, and Sands were all starters before switching to the bullpen at the big-league level. With Matthews’s pitch mix and the potential to increase his fastball velocity in shorter outings, the team should seriously consider this transition. As the bullpen has endured its ups and downs throughout the season, having a fresh, dynamic arm could provide a critical edge when the shape of the schedule changes next month Will the Twins allow Matthews to pitch in relief? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s lackluster performance in recent weeks has pushed them down in the standings to the final playoff spot. Is this right where the team wants to be? Image courtesy of Erik Williams - USA TODAY Sports With the final stretch of the 2024 season underway, the Minnesota Twins find themselves in the thick of the American League Wild Card race. While the natural instinct is to push for the highest seed possible, there’s a compelling case for the Twins to strategically aim for the third Wild Card spot. Securing this position could set them up for a more favorable matchup against a vulnerable Houston Astros squad rather than facing one of the heavy hitters from the AL East. When you think of recent postseason success, the Houston Astros have been the standard-bearer in the American League for nearly a decade. But 2024 hasn’t been the smoothest of seasons for them, and there are signs they could be ripe for an upset in the Wild Card round. Here’s why: Inconsistent Starting Pitching: Houston’s rotation, typically a strength, hasn’t lived up to its usual billing, with injuries impacting their starters. Framber Valdez has been their ace with a sub-3.00 ERA while holding opponents to a .601 OPS. Outside of Valdez, there are a lot of question marks. Yusei Kikuchi was acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline, but his 2024 performance has been inconsistent. Justin Verlander has returned from injury but has been limited as he continues to age. With injuries depleting their depth, the Astros are relying on arms that don’t strike the same fear as in years past. Offensive Streakiness: The Astros' lineup, headlined by Jose Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman, still has plenty of firepower. However, they’ve gone through extended slumps, leaving them more susceptible than usual. Kyle Tucker has missed most of the season with an injury, and Bregman has had a down year by his standards. Minnesota’s offense ranks fourth in the AL for wRC+, with the Astros being one spot ahead of them. However, the Yankees and Orioles rank at the top of the league. When they’re not firing on all cylinders, the Astros' offense looks much more human. Bullpen Woes: While Houston has long been known for its reliable bullpen, it has seen cracks in that armor this season. Minnesota’s relievers have accumulated the second-highest fWAR among AL teams (4.9 fWAR), more than double Houston’s total (2.2 fWAR). The Twins, who have shown a knack for working counts and extending at-bats, could take advantage of a tired or shaky bullpen in a short series. If the Twins were to land the second Wild Card spot, they would be staring down a matchup with the second-place team from the AL East, likely either the Baltimore Orioles or the New York Yankees. Both matchups would be considerably more daunting. Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles have been one of the best teams in baseball all season, driven by their exciting young core. With players like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and a lockdown bullpen, they pose a significant challenge. Baltimore’s combination of youth and top-tier talent has made them one of the toughest teams to beat in the AL. Minnesota has gone 0-3 against Baltimore this season while being outscored 22 to 9. New York Yankees: Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Twins in previous playoff appearances, and the 2024 Yankees are a formidable opponent. Gerrit Cole can still dominate any lineup, and Aaron Judge and Juan Soto change the game with one swing of the bat. Minnesota went 0-6 versus New York this season while being outscored by 24 runs. The Yankees present a more intimidating challenge than a flawed Astros team. There’s no denying that the Twins want to enter the playoffs with momentum, but that doesn’t necessarily mean gunning for the highest seed. The Astros, while still a talented team, have shown enough weaknesses this season to make a first-round matchup with them a desirable outcome for Minnesota. The Twins finished the regular season with a 4-2 record against the Astros. The third Wild Card spot would also allow the Twins to avoid an immediate battle with the AL East giants. Facing the Orioles or Yankees, who are built for postseason success, could prove a far more daunting task. A matchup with Houston, on the other hand, gives the Twins a realistic chance to win a Wild Card series and build momentum for a deeper playoff run. This counterintuitive strategy could be Minnesota’s best path to postseason success as the season winds down. Is the third Wild Card spot better than the second Wild Card spot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota’s top three fWAR leaders are all on the injured list with no imminent sign of return. Can the Twins find value from different parts of the roster? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Joe Ryan have all carried the Twins through different parts of the 2024 season, and that’s why that trio stands atop the team’s leaderboard for fWAR. Correa was an All-Star in the first half, but plantar fasciitis is preventing him from making any impact in the second half. Buxton was close to returning from a hip injury before more hip pain halted his rehab assignment. Ryan likely won’t return this season after the team placed him on the 60-day IL, as the right-hander has yet to resume pitching after sustaining a Grade 2 teres major strain. All three players might be done for the year, or they will be limited when they return. Correa’s Replacement Value Offense Value: Royce Lewis Defense Value: Brooks Lee The Twins face a significant challenge in replacing Carlos Correa's value in the lineup, especially with his all-around contributions. Royce Lewis can fill the offensive void left by Correa, given his dynamic bat, ability to drive in runs, and clutch hitting, which have already impacted his young career. Lewis has slumped in the second half, with his OPS dropping by over 300 points, but he has a chance to carry the team’s offense for the stretch run. Meanwhile, with his advanced defensive instincts, Brooks Lee could be the team’s best replacement to match Correa's elite glove at shortstop. Playing Lee at shortstop also opens up the possibility for Willi Castro to play other defensive positions. Combining Lewis's offensive spark and Lee's defensive reliability, the Twins can create a tandem that mirrors Correa's overall value. Buxton’s Replacement Value Offense Value: Willi Castro Defense Value: DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Replacing Buxton's value in the Twins' lineup is no easy task, as his elite combination of power, speed, and defense can impact all facets of the game. However, Castro can step up as an offensive replacement, providing versatility at the plate with his ability to get on base and swipe bags, offering a dynamic presence similar to Buxton’s. He posted a .774 OPS in the first half and has dipped to .614 in the second half. The Twins need more of Castro’s first-half performance to compensate for Buxton’s loss. On the defensive side, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. brings the athleticism and range in the outfield needed to replicate Buxton’s Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. There are no guarantees that Keirsey will get regular playing time, but he is the best center-field defender on the roster. Ryan’s Replacement Value Rotation Value: David Festa Entering the season, Festa was arguably the Twins’ top pitching prospect, and he’s done nothing but raise his stock throughout the 2024 campaign. Since being recalled by the Twins on July 24th, Festa has made eight appearances and posted a 3.13 ERA with a 2.94 FIP and a 50-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 1/3 innings. Opponents have been held to a .622 OPS during that stretch, and he provided depth by pitching five or more innings in five of those eight appearances. While Ryan's absence leaves a significant gap, Festa’s ability to generate swings-and-misses and his potential to eat innings make him an intriguing option for the rotation as the Twins look for reinforcements. Where else can the Twins get value from their roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are fighting to stay in the playoff race, and players up and down the roster must find a way to re-energize themselves after a long season. Here are three players with something to prove down the stretch. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, MLB.com had their beat writers identify one player on each team with something to prove down the stretch. That phrasing can be left open to interpretation, and teams are at very different points regarding their chances of making or missing the playoffs. Some teams are trying to get their superstar back on the field for the stretch run, while non-contending teams might be looking for a young player to step up into a more important role. Minnesota’s ability to win games will be critical down the stretch, so there is more than one player with something to prove. In the MLB.com article, Do-Hyoung Park identified Carlos Correa as the Twins player with the most to prove for the stretch run. Correa is a natural choice after being an All-Star in the first half and the team’s highest-paid player. He has been sidelined since the All-Star break with plantar fasciitis, the same injury that cost him that plagued him last season. Correa has proven his playoff value to the Twins and Astros throughout his big-league career, so the Twins need a productive version of Correa on the field in October. Besides Correa, what other players have something to prove before the season ends? Byron Buxton, CF Something to Prove: Can he get healthy before October? Like Correa, Buxton has been sidelined for a chunk of the second half with an injury issue. He started a rehab assignment at Triple-A (including getting tossed from a game) before his hip started to bother him again. Buxton is having a resurgent season on both sides of the ball with a career-high 138 OPS+ while providing Gold Glove caliber defense. He had a chance to play over 100 games for only the second time in his career, but that might be out of the window due to his recent setback. Injuries have been part of Buxton's story throughout his career, and he’s shown the ability to quickly return to form when rejoining the lineup. The Twins need Buxton to be an offensive weapon for a team that has struggled to score runs with two of its best hitters on the injured list. Royce Lewis, 3B/2B Something to Prove: Can he carry the offense while learning a new position? A lot has been made of Lewis and his defensive switch to second base. Lewis was vocal about the transition because he doesn’t want to cost the Twins an important game because of bad defense at a position where he is unfamiliar with all the nuances. From the Twins' perspective, they need Lewis to have more defensive flexibility so he isn’t limited to third base and designated hitter. At the plate, Lewis has slowly been working his way out of the biggest slump of his career, posting a .625 OPS since August 11th. With injury questions surrounding other key bats, the Twins need Lewis to carry the offense to the playoffs while learning a new defensive position on the fly. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP Something to Prove: Can he be the team’s third starter in the playoffs? There is no question that Woods Richardson has been a savior to a Twins starting rotation that has seen injuries to Joe Ryan, Anthony DeSclafani, and Chris Paddack. In the season’s first half, SWR posted a 3.51 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP with a 71-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 82 innings. He’s regressed in the second half with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP in 38 2/3 innings. Pablo López and Bailey Ober are clearly the team’s top two starters for the playoffs, leaving the team needing one more starter for the Wild Card round. Has Woods Richardson done enough that the team feels confident giving him the start? Or will the club go with someone like David Festa, who has pitched better in the second half? Which Twins players have the most to prove in the season’s final month? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Max Kepler has been playing hurt and his performance is hurting himself and the Twins. How did the team get to this point with its longest-tenured player? Image courtesy of © Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK As the 2024 season winds down, Max Kepler's performance on the field has become a growing concern for the Twins and for Kepler himself as he looks toward free agency. During the season’s opening series, Kepler hit a foul ball off his knee and he’s had a body floating in the joint since that point. Kepler's decision to continue playing through the pain might be doing more harm than good—not just to the Twins' playoff hopes but to his own market value. Knee injuries are notoriously tricky for any athlete, but it's a critical blow for a player like Kepler, who relies on his athleticism and defensive range. The floating body in his knee has undoubtedly affected his mobility and overall performance. Despite the lingering injury, Kepler and the Twins have chosen to keep him on the field. However, this decision might backfire as his on-field struggles become more pronounced. One of the most noticeable aspects of Kepler's game this season has been his decreased walk rate. Known earlier in his career for his ability to work counts and draw walks, Kepler's plate discipline has taken a hit. From 2018-2022, Kepler posted a BB% of 10.1% or higher. Last season, he saw a slight dip to 9.2 BB%. In 2024, his walk rate has dropped to a career-low (5.5 BB%), indicating his approach at the plate might be compromised. Whether this is due to the knee injury affecting his lower half and, consequently, his swing mechanics or simply a mental lapse, the result is the same: fewer free passes and more outs. Kepler's power numbers have also seen a significant decline. He ended the 2023 season on a high note with a .926 OPS in the second half while arguably being the Twins’ top hitter. Kepler's power has all but disappeared in recent months. His 90 OPS+ is the lowest total of his career, and his .128 ISO is the second-lowest total. This trend is alarming for a corner outfielder with a history of showing power potential, especially in a contract year. The knee injury could be playing a role here as well. Generating power at the plate requires a stable base and the ability to drive through the ball. If Kepler's knee prevents him from getting full extension, it's no surprise that the power numbers are down. Defensively, Kepler has long been praised for his strong arm and range in the outfield. However, the knee injury has clearly affected his defensive capabilities. Once one of baseball’s top defensive right fielders, Kepler's sprint speed has dipped from the 51st percentile last season to the 36th percentile in 2024. He has a negative DRS for the first time in his career, and his Fielding Run Value was only lower during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. As Kepler approaches free agency, these struggles could significantly impact his market value. Teams looking for a corner outfielder with power and solid defense might hesitate to invest in a player with declining metrics and an unresolved knee injury. Even if Kepler opts for offseason surgery to address the knee issue, questions about his durability and ability to return to form will linger. Kepler's willingness to play through pain is commendable, but the decision may ultimately cost him. In an offseason where every little detail matters, Kepler's recent performance might lead to a colder market than anticipated. For the Twins, the situation is bittersweet. Kepler's contributions over the years have been significant, but his recent struggles and looming free agency make it difficult to envision him as part of the team's long-term plans. As the offseason approaches, both Kepler and the Twins will have to make tough decisions about what comes next. Kepler's decision to play through his knee injury might be hurting more than helping. With a noticeable decline in walk rate, power hitting, and defensive abilities, his free-agent stock is likely taking a hit—a reality that could have significant implications for his future and the future of the Twins. Should Kepler be put on the IL? How much is his knee injury impacting his performance? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article