Cody Christie

Minnesota had a terrific first half, and has a chance to win the AL Central for the second consecutive season. Unfortunately, not every player has lived up to expectations. Who have been the biggest disappointments? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Baseball is a complex game, and players can see fluctuations in their performance throughout a grueling 162-game season. Some players exceed expectations for an entire season, but others have up-and-down performances, and still others fail to put it all together at any point. These four Twins players have struggled for different parts of the first half, but there is reason for second-half optimism in at least some cases. 4. Christian Vázquez, C Vázquez struggled mightily at the plate through much of the first half, with a 44 OPS+ and a 21.9 K% compared to a 2.6 BB%. His offensive performance is below replacement level, but he provides other intangibles. He works well with the pitching staff, and still ranks as one of the AL’s top defensive catchers. Minnesota owes Vázquez another $10 million for next season, so moving on from him is challenging. The Twins love to use a catching rotation, and Vázquez may have shown some positive signs in recent weeks. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Since Jun. 1, Vázquez has hit .243/.270/.443, with five doubles and three home runs in 22 games. He has 13 strikeouts in 76 plate appearances during that stretch. Offensive performance is declining across baseball, so those numbers are good enough for a catcher. If he doesn't fall back into his May crater, he's perfectly cromulent. 3. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF Kirilloff has dealt with multiple injuries in recent seasons, but he entered the 2024 campaign relatively healthy. The Twins had added Carlos Santana at first base, so Kirilloff was likely to see more time in the outfield. Offensively, he struggled to find the swing that had made him one of the organization’s top prospects. In 57 games, he hit .201/.270/.384, with an 83 OPS+ and a career-worst 26.4 K%. It was bad enough that the Twins attempted to demote him to Triple-A, before he revealed a back injury had been bothering him. It was a frustrating situation for the organization and player, especially since hiding injuries can hurt the team’s chances of winning. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: It’s unclear when Kirilloff will be able to return from his back issue. Even when healthy, the Twins will likely want him to spend time at Triple-A to rediscover his swing. Kirilloff is running out of chances for the Twins, as other players pass him on the team’s organizational depth chart. 2. Edouard Julien, 2B Julien had a terrific rookie season, posting a 130 OPS+ while dramatically improving his second-base defense. Minnesota hoped he could build off that campaign and step into the full-time second base role this season. His bat struggled to start the year, though, as he hit .207/.309/.367 with a 91 OPS+ and a 34.0 K%. The Twins had other infield options, and demoted him to St. Paul at the beginning of June. He’s always been a unique player type, but the Twins hoped he’d be able to avoid a sophomore slump and prove he was a big-league regular during the 2024 season. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Julien has a .457 OBP and a .418 SLG over his last 22 Triple-A games. Since the start of July, he has a .965 OPS, including three home runs in 11 games. He’s still part of the team’s long-term plans, and might be needed in the second half if injuries continue to impact the roster for the parent club. 1. Pablo López, SP One year ago, López was heading to his first All-Star Game on the heels of a first half wherein he was one of the game’s best pitchers. After a strong finish to the season and a memorable October, many national evaluators viewed López as a 2024 AL Cy Young contender. He has failed to meet those expectations, as he hit the break with a 5.11 ERA, leading the AL in earned runs allowed. Despite his struggles, the Twins have remained in contention. To finish the job and repeat as division champions, though, they need López (who has failed to pitch more than five innings in 10 starts and allowed four earned runs or more in seven of those appearances) to recover his form. He’s supposed to be the team’s ace, but he’s been outpitched by multiple starting rotation members--and not because they've been unforeseeably brilliant. Reason for Second-Half Optimism: Fans have heard this for most of the season, but López’s peripheral numbers point to him having a better performance than his results indicate. His 3.43 xERA is 1.68 points lower than his actual ERA. His Chase%, K%, and BB% rank in the 80th percentile or higher. Signs point to a turnaround, but he has not put it all together. Who should rank at the top of the list? What other player should make the top four? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s trade deadline is just two weeks away. Who are the most valuable trade pieces in the Twins organization? Will any be traded before the deadline? Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Prospect lists can only tell you so much about an organization’s future. Players at every level will impact the Twins in the coming years, and it’s critical to take stock of the entire organization entering the trade deadline period. Below is a ranking of players based on current and future value when it comes to potential trades, factoring in age, years of team control, contracts and (of course) talent. It doesn’t mean these players will be traded, but they have significant value as the deadline approaches. 20. Austin Martin, UTL 2024 Age: 25 Years of Team Control: 6 Martin has shown versatility this season and provides a unique skill set at the big-league level. The Twins hoped he would develop more power, but he can use on-base skills and speed to be an above-average regular. Minnesota has team control over him for the prime of his career, which has solid value in and of itself. 19. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF 2024 Age: 20 Years of Team Control: 10 Gonzalez was a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him this winter, as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. He missed nearly two months with a back problem (muscular, not disc-related). In his first 40 games, he has posted a .732 OPS while facing older pitchers in nearly 82% of his plate appearances. 18. Luke Keaschall, IF 2024 Age: 21 Years of Team Control: 11 Keaschall has been the fastest-rising prospect in the Twins organization in 2024. He was a second-round pick last season, and he’s shown off his five-tool skills between High- and Double-A. In 84 games, he combined for a .945 OPS and went 19-for-24 in stolen base chances. Keaschall is the type of player whom other teams target at the trade deadline. 17. Louie Varland, SP 2024 Age: 26 Years of Team Control: 6 Varland struggled in the Twins’ rotation this year (6.58 ERA in 6 appearances), forcing the team to go in a different direction. He’s had some up-and-down moments at Triple-A, but the Twins kept him in a starting role. Varland has future value, because he is under team control and can be shifted to a relief role if he fails as a starter. 16. Marco Raya 2024 Age: 21 Years of Team Control: 9 Raya has been an intriguing prospect since the Twins drafted him in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft. Minnesota has been cautious with his workload, after he dealt with injuries during his first professional season. He has some of the best stuff in the Twins organization, and many national outlets continue to rank him as a borderline top-100 prospect. 15. Edouard Julien, 2B 2024 Age: 25 Years of Team Control: 6 Julien would have ranked much higher on this list to begin the year, but the Twins believe he can turn it around. In 2023, he posted a 130 OPS+ as part of a rookie trio that spurred the Twins’ offense. Julien struggled with a 91 OPS+ in 58 games to begin this season before being demoted. The Twins will need him in the second half as injuries impact the team. 14. Simeon Woods Richardson 2024 Age: 23 Years of Team Control: 6 Woods Richardson has saved the Twins' rotation this season, after Varland struggled to start the year. In 16 starts, he has posted a 3.51 ERA, with a 1.15 WHIP and a 20.9 K%. Minnesota has gone 12-4 in games he has pitched, so he’s doing enough to help the team win. He's young and cheap, which has plenty of value even if he becomes a victim of regression. 13. David Festa, SP 2024 Age: 24 Years of Team Control: 6 Many consider Festa the Twins’ top pitching prospect, because he has plenty of upside and is essentially big-league-ready. His first starts with the Twins didn’t go perfectly, but he still has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter. Festa needs to throw more strikes at Triple-A, and can join the back end of the team’s rotation whenever a need next arises. 12. Matt Wallner, OF 2024 Age: 26 Years of Team Control: 6 Wallner’s year got off to a disastrous start, with 25 terrible at-bats wherein he struck out 17 times and only managed two hits. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A, and he was a man on a mission. The International League named him June’s Hitter of the Month after he slashed .324/.403/.724, with 12 home runs and six doubles. He's hit safely in six of his first seven games since rejoining the Twins, with four extra-base hits. 11. Ryan Jeffers, C 2024 Age: 27 Years of Team Control: 3 Jeffers started the year as one of the AL’s best hitters, with an .892 OPS, 14 doubles and 12 home runs through the end of May. In June, he cratered, with a .470 OPS, managing only nine hits in 56 at-bats. Jeffers has hit better in July, though, and young catchers with team control will always be valuable. Do you agree with the above rankings? Who is ranked too high? Who is too low? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins head into the All-Star break firmly in playoff position. To get to this point, there have been some surprise performances up and down the lineup. Will these surprises continue into the second half, or is the regression monster warming in the baseball gods' bullpen? Image courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports The Twins entered the season projected to win 85 or more games, and to repeat as champions of the AL Central. Cleveland has been one of baseball’s biggest surprises. Few believed they would be near the top of the AL at the All-Star break, but there they stand. Minnesota has played well in recent weeks, and many of the surprises below are part of why the team has a solid chance to make the playoffs. Can these surprises continue into the second half? The answers aren’t straightforward. José Miranda, 3B/1B 2.6 rWAR, 148 OPS+ Miranda struggled through a shoulder injury last season, and the Twins didn’t have complete confidence in him entering the 2024 campaign. He began the year at Triple-A, because Minnesota had other options ahead of him on the organizational depth chart. He’s reestablished himself, though, with Baseball Reference ranking him second in WAR behind Carlos Correa. When healthy, Miranda has been one of the organization’s best hitters, and he’s proving his doubters wrong, with a first half that should have earned him consideration for the All-Star team. Byron Buxton, CF 2.5 rWAR, 131 OPS+ Last season, there were questions about whether or not Buxton would be able to play center field regularly. Not only has he returned to center field, but he's playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball. Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran are the only AL center fielders with more fWAR than Buxton, and Buxton ranks second to Judge according to wRC+. Defensively, he ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in OAA, Fielding Run Value, Arm Value, and Arm Strength. Even more encouraging is his sprint speed, which is in the 97th percentile. Buxton is on pace to play over 100 games for only the second time in his career, and the Twins are better when Buxton is at his best. Simeon Woods Richardson, SP 1.6 rWAR, 116 ERA+ Woods Richardson had much to prove in 2024, after a disastrous 2023 season that saw opponents hit him around at Triple-A with diminished velocity. He revamped his mechanics this winter, and the results speak for themselves. His velocity on his fastball increased from 90.5 to 93.1 MPH, and his other pitches have seen improvements, too. In 16 starts, he's posted a 116 ERA+ with a 20.9 K% and a 7.1 BB%. More importantly, he has put the Twins in position to win, with the Twins going 12-4 in games he started. SWR may be due for some regression in the second half, but he has helped stabilize the back end of the rotation. Jorge Alcalá, RP 1.4 rWAR, 261 ERA+ In recent seasons, Alcalá has been impacted by injuries, but the 2024 season might be his coming-out party. His Hard-Hit% is in the 100th percentile, as batters struggle to make solid contact against him. He also ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity, Whiff%, xBA, and xERA. In 30 appearances, Alcalá has a 1.57 ERA, with a 0.96 WHIP and a 24.1 K%. He’s tied with Griffin Jax for the highest rWAR among the team’s relievers. Alcalá has emerged as one of the Twins’ most reliable relief options, and that must continue in the second half for the team to chase down the Guardians. Josh Staumont, RP 0.7 rWAR, 475 ERA+ Minnesota’s front office hoped Staumont would rediscover his dominant late-inning stuff after two injury-wrecked seasons. It has taken some time, but he might be rounding back into his former self. He didn’t allow any earned runs in his first 19 appearances and left the first half with a 0.87 ERA. His fastball velocity has increased throughout the season, including hitting 101 earlier this month. Staumont may never be the pitcher he was with the Royals. However, this year, he has been better than expected in a middle-inning relief role. Do you agree with the five players listed above? What other players should have made the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

As the trade deadline approaches, the Twins front office is in a difficult situation. Attendance is down at Target Field, and ownership has limited payroll entering the season. So, how will the club make meaningful moves? Image courtesy of Melissa Berman, Twins Daily The 2024 MLB trade deadline is just over two weeks away, and front offices will be fielding calls on players throughout the organization. The Twins enter the All-Star break with more than an 80% chance of making the playoffs, and are still within striking distance of Cleveland for the AL Central title. If the front office wants to add players, there are multiple factors to consider, including current and future payroll limitations. So, how will the trade deadline be impacted by Target Field attendance and the Pohlad family’s decision to reduce payroll? Payroll Limitations in 2024 and Beyond The Twins’ front office has shown a tendency to target players with more than one year of team control. Unfortunately, Joe Pohlad and the ownership group decided to cut payroll by $30 million this offseason. This cut prevented the team from making significant offseason acquisitions, and even forced the club to trade long-time infielder Jorge Polanco to make payroll space. Minnesota has found ways to continue to win in 2024 despite the payroll drop, but the future is even murkier. Next season, the Twins see some of their best players get a bump in pay. Pablo López is making $8.25 million this season, but is scheduled to receive a raise to $21.75 million in 2025. Carlos Correa gets a slight pay hike, an increase of $4 million, because of how his contract's total value was divided among its six seasons. There will also be multiple arbitration-eligible players who see a significant salary jump, including regulars like Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers. Minnesota’s front office must consider these projected salary increases when trading for players. Less Clarity on the TV Situation For 2024, the Twins re-signed with Diamond Sports Group, the parent company for Bally Sports North. In 2023, Dave St. Peter said that the Twins made around $60 million in their television deal. Minnesota won’t announce how much the team is making in the current deal, but it is believed to be between $35-45 million. Even with this influx, the team failed to make any additional moves this winter to add payroll. St. Peter is hopeful that games will be back on TV “soon,” with Comcast and Diamond Sports feuding since May 1. "Yeah, there's all kinds of urgency. Certainly, the baseball team, which we're not a part of that negotiation, are urging all sides to come together and to get a deal done," St. Peter explains. "I do know there's some ongoing conversations, and I think that's good. I'm hopeful that you're gonna see Twins baseball back on Comcast soon." Lower-Than-Anticipated Attendance During the winter, the Twins talked openly about expecting an increase in attendance for the 2024 season. Minnesota had seen a rise in attendance over the last two seasons, from 1.8 million in 2022 to 1.97 million last season. St. Peter talked at TwinsFest about anticipating home attendance exceeding 2 million for the first time since 2019. The team was coming off a division title and their first playoff series victory in two decades, so would only make sense for fan morale to be high. Unfortunately, the team’s projections didn’t consider other factors, like the slashed payroll and television issues. Attendance is down by nearly 1,200 fans per game, compared to the same per-game figures through this point last season. They're averaging fewer than 22,000 fans per game so far, which makes it nearly impossible for the Twins to draw over 2 million fans on the season. They're 23rd in overall attendance and 21st in year-over-year attendance change. Lower television viewership leads to lower attendance by reducing fan engagement and enthusiasm, which will have payroll implications beyond the current season. Minnesota is on pace to win more than 90 games and qualify for the playoffs for the second straight season, but ownership’s choices are starting to have long-term effects. Trade Deadline Outlook Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shown the ability to be aggressive at the trade deadline when they believe there are clear roster needs. The Twins have needs this season, but the front office is in a tough payroll spot for 2024 and beyond. Minnesota stood pat at last year’s deadline, and they will likely do something similar this year, because of everything outlined above. How will these issues impact the trade deadline? Will attendance improve at Target Field in the second half? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

MLB’s Futures Game allows for baseball’s top prospects to garner attention on the national stage. Who are the Twins sending, and why has he been one of the team’s fastest-rising prospects? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge The 2024 MLB Futures Game will be held on Saturday, July 13, at 3 PM CT and will be available to watch on MLB Network, MLB.TV, MLB.com, or the MLB app. It’s the 25th annual event, which has featured some of the best prospects in Twins history. Brooks Lee was scheduled to be the Twins representative, but his call-up to the big leagues forced a change. Instead, the Twins are sending another infield prospect whose stock is skyrocketing. Luke Keaschall shares many similarities with former Red Sox infielder Dustin Pedroia, a player he hopes to emulate professionally. Both players attended Arizona State University, played multiple infield positions, and can be seen as more diminutive in stature. Keaschall started his college career at the University of San Francisco before joining ASU for his junior season. He put himself on many team’s draft radars by hitting .353/.443/.725 (1.168) with 25 doubles and 18 home runs in 55 games. Based on this performance, Minnesota was excited that he fell to the organization in last season’s draft. The Twins selected Keaschall with the 49th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Minnesota quickly signed him for $1.5 million and sent him to the FCL to get his first taste of pro ball before heading to a full-season league. Most of his at-bats came with Low-A Fort Myers, where he went 21-for-72 (.292 BA) with ten extra-base hits and a 20-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Minnesota bumped him to Cedar Rapids for the stretch run since they were in the hunt for the Midwest League playoffs. He hit 10-for-32 (.313 BA) in eight games, with two doubles and two home runs. In the deciding game, he reached base twice, drove in a run, and scored a run. It was a strong debut for him to build on for the 2024 season. “I work my tail off in the weight room,” Keaschall said. “At the end of the day, I'm still growing, I'm still maturing, I'm still getting bigger and stronger and better at the game and refining my swing and mechanics. I think just over time, becoming a better baseball player, maturing a little bit more.” Minnesota had Keaschall begin this season in Cedar Rapids, since he had limited at-bats at that level to end last season. He was a monster in the Kernels lineup, hitting .335/.457/.544 (1.001) with 12 doubles and seven home runs in 44 games. At the end of May, the Twins promoted him to Double-A, where he was nearly 3.5 years younger than the average age of the competition at that level. In his first 38 games, he is hitting over .300 while getting on base over 40% of the time. His surface numbers don’t tell the whole story about what he brings to the team. He worked on his swing during the winter to have a better line-drive approach by hunting for pitches in the zone that he can drive for power. His professional approach has allowed him to accumulate nearly as many walks (51) as strikeouts (66). Among minor league players with at least 300 plate appearances, his wRC+ ranked in the top five. He’s also been a threat on the bases by going 19-for-23 in stolen base attempts. Defensively, Keaschall was drafted as a second baseman, but the Twins are giving him opportunities to play in the outfield and even some first base. During the 2024 season, he made 20 starts at second base and 16 at center field. Last winter, he went to Driveline to have them help him work on his arm action, which has helped him transition to a more regular outfield role. Even with his college experience, Keaschall has been promoted aggressively by the Twins while continuing to perform well. He’s only had 18 plate appearances against younger pitchers and is the first player from the team’s 2023 draft class to be promoted to Double-A. The Twins may have found a steal in the second round, especially if Keaschall can continue to follow in Pedroia’s footsteps. What stands out most about Keaschall’s start to his career? Where does he rank among the team’s top prospects? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Willi Castro’s path from minor league signee to this point has been full of obstacles. On Thursday, he found out that he was a first-time All-Star. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Willi Castro had multiple minor league offers entering the 2023 season, but the Twins made it known that they wanted him in their organization. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli personally called Castro to express the team’s interest in Castro and what he could mean to the organization. Castro liked what he heard from the manager and was familiar with the Twins from his time in Detroit. He signed with Minnesota, and the rest is history. On Thursday, Major League Baseball announced that Castro would replace Jose Altuve on the AL All-Star roster. He will serve as the backup second baseman behind Marcus Semien. His defensive utility will likely come into play for the AL squad, as managers typically try to get every player in the game. Castro can be moved around the diamond as new players enter the game. He joins Carlos Correa as the 2024 Twins All-Star representatives. Earlier this month, I named Castro as the team’s first-half MVP. He has stood out above the crowd on a team with multiple former All-Stars and multi-million dollar players. Baseball Reference and FanGraphs rank him second on the team in WAR, behind Correa. His value has multiple layers because of his defensive flexibility. He joined a small club of players who have amassed 20 or more games in left field, center field, third base, and shortstop in the same season. His 121 OPS+ is 15 points higher than last season, and he’s already compiled a career-high in WAR. Castro has impacted the Twins in every facet of the game. “He’s the real MVP of this team,” Correa told reporters last month. “He plays everywhere. If somebody gets hurt, he replaces them with no problem. If you ask him to play second, he plays great defense at second base. If you ask him to play shortstop, left, center, it doesn’t matter. He plays everywhere. When you have a guy like that, he makes you so much better as a team. I think we should appreciate him way more than we do already. He’s a real great player.” Castro began his professional career in the Guardians organization before trading him to the Tigers while in the low minors. Detroit initially rushed him to the big leagues as a 22-year-old, causing him to struggle. In parts of four seasons, he hit .245/.292/.381 (.673) with an 87 OPS+. Based on this performance, the Tigers dropped him from their 40-man roster, making him a free agent. Last season, Castro wasn’t guaranteed to make the Opening Day roster since the Twins had multiple players ahead of him on the organizational depth chart. However, injuries to other vital players opened a spot on the roster, and his spring performance was hard to ignore. Tom Froemming named him the 2023 Sire of Fort Myers, and the Twins quickly realized how valuable Castro was to the club. His versatility has been crucial to everything the Twins do on both sides of the ball. Since the start of last season, Correa is the only Twins player with more fWAR than Castro. His defensive utility has seen him be a replacement on the field for the team’s biggest names, including Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Correa. He also allows Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to have more flexibility when creating his lineups because he can worry less about defensive positions when Castro can play so many different spots. Castro is relatively unknown on the national stage, but now he will have the opportunity to showcase his versatility while being recognized among the game’s best players. When the Twins signed him, it was hard to imagine Castro reaching this level of performance. Now, he can call himself an All-Star for the rest of his life. Congrats to Castro and his family! View full article

If the Twins want to add a starting pitcher, that player must pass the Bailey Ober threshold. What does that mean? I’m glad you asked. Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Twins saw what it takes to win in October. Strong starting pitching, a powerful lineup, and a shutdown bullpen are all keys. As the front office plans for the trade deadline, multiple factors must be considered for the team to make choices for the present and future of the organization. One aspect to consider is adding a playoff-caliber starting pitcher, and that acquisition must meet the Bailey Ober threshold. If the playoffs started today, the Twins would be one of the AL’s Wild Card teams, able to line up their top three starting pitchers. Currently, those three starters would be Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. There is a lot of baseball left to decide the exact order of those pitchers and questions about how their performance will hold up for the stretch run. So, the front office must acquire a pitcher better than Ober to clearly upgrade the team’s playoff rotation. For the Twins to be successful in the playoffs, Ryan must continue to pitch well in the second half, and López needs to rediscover the performance that made him a near-Cy Young last season. Ober is the player sitting in the team’s third rotation spot, and he’s delivered an up-and-down performance this season. In his first 13 starts, he posted a 5.13 ERA, as he allowed 11 home runs in 66 2/3 innings. His last five appearances have restored the Ober fans saw last season. In 33 1/3 innings, he has allowed eight earned runs on 23 hits, with a 41-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ober’s true talent lies somewhere between his poor start to the season and his recent hot stretch, but that’s the threshold for acquiring a starting pitcher before the deadline. Minnesota also has other playoff pitching options behind Ober, but trusting those arms is challenging. Simeon Woods Richardson has been great during his rookie campaign, with a 3.48 ERA, a 3.87 FIP, and a 1.11 WHIP. However, his 20.1 K% exposes him to some degree of variance and makes him more vulnerable to the high-powered offenses you tend to find in October. Another option is Chris Paddack, but he has been streaky in his first full season since his second Tommy John surgery. He is likely on an innings limit, and might be headed for a late-season bullpen role, similar to the one he assumed during last season’s playoff run. Many selling teams have starting pitchers who clear the Ober Threshold. Some of the top potentially available names are: Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Kevin Gausman, Nathan Eovaldi, and Zach Eflin. Crochet and Skubal are under team control through 2026 and pitch within the division, so the Twins might not want to give up the requisite prospect package to a rival. Gausman has the same amount of control left, via his contract, but it comes at $23 million per season, and there is no guarantee the Twins have that type of payroll flexibility. Eovaldi has dealt with injuries in the past, but has plenty of playoff experience with the Rangers and Red Sox. Eflin finished in the top 6 for the AL Cy Young last season and is due to be paid $18 million next season, which might put him out of Tampa’s payroll plan, so maybe he makes the most sense in this group. There could be others to consider, too. Last season, the Twins stood pat at the trade deadline and relied on internal options to bolster the roster for the stretch run. Minnesota’s front office has been aggressive in the past, adding players like Tyler Mahle and Jorge López, but those trades didn’t work out in the team’s favor. With the team’s payroll limitations, it will be tough for a club to acquire a starter that meets the Ober Threshold. Will the front office have room to add a playoff-caliber starter? Can the Twins win with their top three starters? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota has been playing well in recent weeks, and more reinforcements may be coming. When are some of the team’s critical pieces expected to return from the IL? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports Last season, the Twins were quiet at the trade deadline, for numerous reasons. One of the biggest was the corps of impact players scheduled to return from the injured list down the stretch. This strategy worked last season, and the front office could follow a similar plan this year. Here is a quick rundown of Twins players on the injured list, and their expected timelines (loose estimates, of course) to return in the second half. UTL Austin Martin Injury: Oblique Strain Martin has fit into a unique role with the Twins this season because of his versatility. He can play multiple defensive positions, and has hit .265/.331/.372, with 10 extra-base hits and a 100 OPS+ in 47 games. He’s gone 6-for-8 in stolen base opportunities and made 14 or more starts in both left and center field. His inexperience in the outfield has been evident, as there have been some defensive miscues. Martin might not have a job waiting for him at the big-league level when he returns, if Matt Wallner continues to hit well in his absence, but virtually any further injury throughout the roster would clear a lane for him. Expected Return: Late July 3B Royce Lewis Injury: Right adductor strain Lewis has been snakebitten by injuries throughout his professional career, and has suffered significant or even major injuries in three consecutive seasons. However, there is no question about how he impacts the lineup when he is healthy. Lewis went on a home run binge to start his 2024 season, but that was also after he injured his hamstring on Opening Day. Last season, the Twins saw what Lewis could mean to the team in October, as he hit four home runs in six playoff games. Minnesota needs Lewis healthy for the playoffs, because he is arguably the team’s best hitter. For that very reason, they might be more cautious in returning him to action than they would be with a less habitually injured, less important member of the team. Expected Return: Mid- to late August 1B/OF Alex Kirilloff Injury: Back issues The Twins attempted to demote Kirilloff to Triple-A last month, but he then revealed that he was dealing with worsening soreness in his back. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli expressed concerns that Kirilloff had not fully communicated the extent of his injury, a critique with which the player himself agreed. Even if he does return, he is likely headed to St. Paul to prove his bat can return to form. Expected Return: TBD RHP Brock Stewart Injury: Right shoulder tendinitis Stewart has been on the IL since the beginning of May, after being one of the team’s best relievers to start the year--and during his intermittent availability last year. He pitched a live batting practice session over the weekend, and will begin a rehab assignment with the Saints this week. If everything goes well, Stewart should be in line to rejoin the bullpen shortly after the All-Star break. His addition to the high-leverage unit will be welcome, for a team that has seen some shaky late-inning moments throughout the season. Expected Return: End of July RHP Justin Topa Injury: Left patellar tendinitis Topa attempted an initial rehab assignment in May, but soreness flared up. An MRI revealed that he had a 25% tear in his left patellar tendon, for which he received a platelet-rich plasma injection. He is scheduled to throw a second bullpen session this week and start a rehab assignment next week. Topa was a critical late-inning option for Seattle’s bullpen last season, but he has yet to pitch a regular season game for the Twins. Expected Return: August Understanding the impact of these potential returns is crucial, as we look toward the trade deadline. It's also a key dynamic in what is becoming a taut three-team race for the AL Central crown. Hopefully, each of the above return on schedule, if not sooner. Which player will impact the Twins most in the second half? Will these player’s expected returns impact the team’s trade deadline strategy? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Brooks Lee has showcased his strong hitting abilities to start his big-league career. Let’s look back at his time in the Twins farm system, to see how he got to this point. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints The top of the 2022 MLB Draft didn’t play out as many expected. The Twins were surprised and ecstatic when Brooks Lee fell to them with the eighth overall pick. He was the back-to-back Player of the Year in the Big West, and many evaluators considered him the top collegiate hitter in his draft class. Lee has come as advertised during his professional career. "We were hoping to get a player who would make it to our pick who maybe we didn’t think would absolutely get there," Twins scouting director Sean Johnson said. "Brooks Lee fits that bill. Our room was thrilled when we were able to select him, that he made it down that far. You just didn’t know how the board is going to fall." The Twins signed Lee for $5.675 million and began promoting him aggressively through tbeir system. Lee got his feet wet with four games in the Florida Complex League, where he went 6-for-17 (.353) with two doubles. Minnesota quickly promoted him to High-A Cedar Rapids, where he hit .289/.395/.454, with four doubles and four home runs across 25 contests. Wichita was headed to the Texas League playoffs, so Lee advanced to Double-A for the stretch run. He helped Wichita qualify for the Championship Series, before losing to the Frisco RoughRiders. It was a memorable professional debut that established Lee as one of the game’s best prospects. Entering the 2023 season, Lee was a consensus top-50 prospect according to the three national top-100 lists. Minnesota sent him back to Double-A, where he had ended the 2022 campaign. In 87 games, he hit .292/.365/.476, with 31 doubles and 11 home runs. In early August, the Twins promoted Lee to Triple-A, where he was over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the International League. There, Lee struggled for the first time in his professional career, as he hit .237/.304/.428 with 16 extra-base hits in 38 games. He knew something needed to change entering the 2024 season, and used the offseason to fix his flaws. As a switch hitter, Lee’s left-handed swing has always been his better side. During the 2023 season, he posted an .806 OPS as a lefty and a .603 OPS as a righty. He spent the offseason refining his right-handed swing to make it more closely match his left-handed swing. In spring training, Lee started to show off his improved mechanics, but a herniated disc in his back put him on the IL to begin the year. Back injuries can be tricky and have long-term impacts, but the Twins decided on a course of action that didn’t include surgery. Lee worked through his rehab and made his first appearance with the Saints at the beginning of June. Lee quickly made it difficult for the Twins to leave him in the minors. In 20 games with the Saints, he hit .329/.394/.635, with five doubles and seven home runs. His right-handed swing entirely changed, as he went 13-for-38 (.342) against lefties with eight extra-base hits. For some perspective, he had seven extra-base hits in 109 plate appearances against southpaws last season. If healthy, Lee would have likely been called up earlier in the season, but his performance shows that he was knocking down the door to the big leagues. Defensively, Lee has continued to play shortstop regularly, but will get limited reps at that position in the majors. Royce Lewis’s injury means that Lee will regularly play third base, a position he has only started ten times as a professional. The Twins have also given him a lot of pre-game reps at second base, which might be his long-term position. Lee moved quickly through the Twins system, but that can be expected for an advanced college bat. What stands out about his professional career? What have you noticed during his first few games in the majors? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Minnesota is one of the American League’s best teams through the first half, but only one player will represent the club in the Midsummer Classic. Who made the cut, and who could be potential roster replacements? Image courtesy of Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins have been represented by multiple players in every All-Star Game since 2019. Some years, the players were part of the initially announced roster, and other times, there have been replacement players for injured or unavailable players. Last season, Sonny Gray and Pablo López represented the club, while Byron Buxton and Luis Arráez were the team’s representatives in 2022. So, who will represent the Twins in Texas at the 2024 All-Star Game? 2024 All-Star: Carlos Correa, SS The AL has a pair of shortstops in the MVP conversation with Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. Both players were locks to make the roster, so it came down to whether or not the AL club wanted to have a third shortstop. Correa previously made the All-Star team in 2017 and 2021 with the Astros, but he has yet to be selected since joining the Twins. He’s having a resurgent offensive season with a 150 OPS+ and is the most well-known player on the team from a national perspective. The Twins have multiple other names on the roster who could be candidates to be injury replacements. So, let’s look at their chances of joining Correa in Texas. Joe Ryan, SP Ryan has been the Twins’ best-starting pitcher throughout the 2024 campaign and ranks fourth on the team in rWAR. Since Ryan pitched on Saturday, his last scheduled start for the first half lines up to be Friday in San Francisco, making it more likely that he would be available to pitch an inning in the All-Star Game. Currently, Ryan ranks in the top 10 among AL pitchers in fWAR, and there will be more than ten starting pitchers on the roster, especially when other players pitch over the weekend. Willi Castro, UTL Castro has arguably been the team’s MVP through the season’s first half. His defensive flexibility has been invaluable while posting a 124 OPS+. He is the first player in MLB history to appear in at least 20 games at second, third, shortstop, center field, and left field in the same season. Castro has the entire second half of the season to extend his record-breaking performance. The AL All-Star team might need someone with Castro’s defensive utility, and he certainly had a worthy first half. Ryan Jeffers, C Early in the season, Jeffers looked like a lock to make the All-Star Game because he was among the league leaders in OPS. He ended April with a .947 OPS and continued to hit well in May with a .830 OPS. Jeffers struggled in June, with only two extra-base hits in 16 games. Adley Rutschman was selected as the AL’s starter, and Salvador Perez will back him up. Jeffers has a strong case If the AL squad wants a third catcher. Griffin Jax, RP Jax has been the team’s most dominant reliever and has an All-Star-caliber resume. However, there are relievers in closer roles who have compiled video game numbers that will make the team ahead of him. Every team needs a representative in the All-Star Game, which, unfortunately, pushes Jax out of the picture. Did the correct player get selected for the All-Star Game? Will any other Twins be added as replacement players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Max Kepler surprised many with an offensive outburst last season. However, he’s failed to replicate those results. Can he rediscover his successful approach? Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler is at a critical juncture in his big-league career. He’s been part of the Twins organization since signing as a 16-year-old, but his time is quickly coming to an end. Kepler will be a free agent at season’s end and will hit the open market searching for a big payday for the first time. To get the biggest contract, he needs to make some second-half adjustments to match his 2023 campaign. KKKKKKepler at the Plate Kepler hasn’t been known as a player who has struck out a lot during his career. He puts the ball in play, but sometimes the result is weak contact to avoid swings and misses. His K%, Chase%, and Whiff% are all in the 53rd percentile or lower in 2024. Last season, his Chase% and Whiff% ranked in the 75th percentile or higher. It’s also more concerning that his strikeout rate has been rising in recent weeks. From June 2nd-July 4th, Kepler has struck out 26 times in 93 plate appearances. During that 23-game stretch, he has five games with three strikeouts and seven games with two strikeouts or more. Kepler isn’t getting more power due to his increase in strikeouts, so something needs to change in his approach. (Not) Walking Through Memphis While his strike issues are concerning, Kepler has significantly dropped his walk rate. Last season, he posted a 9.2 BB%, which ranked in the 59th percentile. His walk rate has dropped to 5.9% this season, ranking in the 21st percentile. Kepler’s current .306 OBP is the lowest of his career and sits 26 points below the 2024 campaign. Pitchers have likely changed their approach with Kepler since he isn’t hitting for power and is striking out more regularly. Opponents don’t need to worry about walking Kepler, so they can make him get himself out without issuing a free pass. Gotcha with the Fastball? Kepler feasted on fastballs last season with a .624 xSLG compared to a .473 xSLG in 2024. His Whiff% against fastballs has increased by over 9% this season, and it might be the easiest pitch that has caused the issue. In 2023, Kepler posted a positive run value against pitches in the heart of the plate for the first time since 2019. So far this year, he’s been worth -7 runs on pitches deemed in the heart of the plate. Kepler has been swinging through some of the easiest pitches, which has led to struggles in previous seasons. Where’s the Beef? To give some perspective, Kepler posted a .688 OPS in the first half of last season, and his OPS is higher than that in 2024. During his terrific second half, he hit .306/.377/.549 (.926) with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs. He drew more walks and cut back on his strikeouts while being one of the AL’s best hitters. This year, his 18.3 launch angle is higher than any of the last three seasons, impacting his hard hit%, which has dropped by over 9%. When Kepler is at his best, he is hitting smooth line drives to all parts of the field. He’s under the ball too much this season, impacting his ability to post power numbers. Kepler will be remembered as one of the best defensive outfielders in the Target Field era, and he’s likely headed to the team's Hall of Fame. Like with many former top prospects, Kepler’s career includes an element of “What Could Have Been.” He’s shown flashes of the five-tool prospect label he was given before making his big-league debut. However, the offensive performance has been inconsistent or underwhelming for chunks of his Twins tenure. Another second-half turnaround could make him millions of dollars in free agency, but that would mean addressing most of the above-mentioned areas. Can Kepler repeat his second-half performance from 2023? What area is most important to address? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Offseason changes to José Miranda's swing might be the biggest reason for his improved results. Let’s dive in. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports José Miranda has been considered a strong hitter since the Twins drafted him in the second round of the 2016 MLB Draft out of high school. Minnesota left him unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft following the 2020 season, but thankfully, no teams pounced at the opportunity to add him. His 2021 season put him on the prospect map as he hit .344/.401/.572 (.973) with 32 doubles and 30 home runs between Double- and Triple-A. Miranda had proven he could hit in the upper minors, but now he needed to transition that success to the big leagues. Miranda inserted himself into the team’s long-term plans during his rookie season. In 125 games, he hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with 25 doubles, 15 home runs, and a 114 OPS+. Minnesota hoped he’d take the next step during his sophomore season, but a shoulder injury impacted him on both sides of the ball. Miranda posted a 57 OPS+ in 40 games with 24 strikeouts and seven extra-base hits. He had surgery on his shoulder in October and hoped that some swing adjustments could replicate his 2022 numbers. So, let’s look into Miranda’s approach at the plate and what he changed from last year to this year. 2023 Season: 40 G, .211/.263/.303 (.566), 4 2B, 3 HR, 24 K, 9 BB, 57 OPS+, -0.2 WAR Last season, Miranda’s swing included extra movement, with his hands moving north and south as part of his load. This extraneous movement made it difficult for him to catch up to high pitches in the zone. Against fastballs, he struck out 16 times in 87 at-bats while being limited to a .310 SLG. His extra movement also caused him to be on top of the ball more regularly. During his rookie season, he topped the ball 29.4% of the time, which jumped to 40.7% last season. Some of his struggles last season were likely due to compensating for his shoulder injury, but it still gave Miranda a chance to analyze his swing and make changes. 2024 Season: 71 G, .324/.364/.529 (.894), 20 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 35 K, 14 BB, 150 OPS+, 2.3 WAR The Twins sent Miranda to Triple-A to begin the season because there wasn’t a spot on the Opening Day roster. He reached base multiple times in four of his first seven games before multiple big-league injuries opened a spot for him. Miranda worked to limit the movement of his hands during his load so there is less north-to-south motion, which allows him to get into his swing quicker and catch up to pitches. He’s slugging over .500 against every pitch type, including a 210-point jump in slugging versus fastballs. His Topped% has decreased to 29.1%, slightly better than his rookie season and better than the league average. Since rejoining the Twins, he’s made keeping his bat out of the lineup challenging. Willi Castro (2.9 fWAR) and Carlos Correa (2.7 fWAR) are the only Twins with a higher fWAR than Miranda’s 2.1 total. His total might be even higher, but he’s provided negative value on defense. Yesterday, he tied the MLB record by hitting safely in twelve straight at-bats. His 151 wRC+ is the highest on the team, and he has had the lowest K% among qualified Twins hitters since he was recalled. Minnesota’s offense has been firing on all cylinders in recent weeks, and it’s tough to imagine where the lineup would be without Miranda’s improved swing. What stands out about his approach in 2024? What’s Miranda’s long-term role with the Twins? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article