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Last season, the Twins had three Gold Glove finalists, but none won top honors. So, which Twins players are putting themselves in the Gold Glove conversation in 2024? Image courtesy of Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted-ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are through games played on Jun. 9, 2024. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Bailey Ober 0.8 SDI (9th), Pablo López -0.2 SDI (20th), Chris Paddack -0.6 SDI (22nd), Joe Ryan -0.7 SDI (23rd) Ober is the lone Twins pitcher to crack the top 10, and sits 2.1 SDI points behind Los Angeles’s Griffin Canning, the AL’s league leader. He is a large man to get moving off the mound to make defensive plays, so it will be interesting to see how he fares as the season progresses. López finished in the top three in last season’s final SDI rankings, and much like his pitching performance, he’s off to a slow start this season. Overall, Minnesota’s starters don’t rank highly, but 12 other qualified pitchers rank behind Ryan in the initial standings. MVlENDRfWGw0TUFRPT1fVUFkUkFnY0JBQUVBRGxFRFVBQUFCd05SQUZoWFZBSUFBbGNIQ0FVRkJBUmNDVkVB.mp4 Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vázquez 3.3 SDI (6th), Ryan Jeffers -1.0 SDI (16th) Vázquez has been one of the Twins’ worst offensive performers, but his defense continues to be strong. He’s 0.2 points away from matching his SDI total from all of 2023. Vázquez ended last season on a high note as he more than doubled his SDI total in the season’s final six weeks. There is a strong trio of catchers with more than 5.0 SDI at the top of the rankings, so Vázquez will need to play well to be in the Gold Glove conversation. Jeffers finished in the top 10 for SDI last season, but his defense is down to start the year. His pop time (71st percentile) and CS Above Average (66th percentile) have taken massive jumps this season and should help him improve the rankings. First Base (AL Ranking): Carlos Santana 2.8 SDI (2nd) Santana is only 0.1 SDI point behind Vinnie Pasquantino for the AL’s top spot. Both players are significantly ahead of other first basemen, so it might be a two-person race for the Gold Glove. His Outs Above Average (95th percentile) and Fielding Run Value (88th percentile) are also near the league's top. His bat has also come around, making it more evident that the Twins’ front office was correct in targeting him this winter. Surely, though, Santana would rate more highly, were the SDI to factor in Takes it Himself Rate. Second Base (AL Ranking): Edouard Julien -0.8 SDI (6th) Julien made significant improvements with his defense last season, moving from below average to slightly above average. However, he struggled on both sides of the ball to start this season. He sits one spot behind former Twins second baseman Jorge Polanco, and three players are behind Julien. In future updates, he will fall out of the rankings since he was demoted to Triple-A. Third Base (AL Ranking): José Miranda -2.6 SDI (10th) Royce Lewis was injured on Opening Day, opening a spot at third base for Miranda. Last season, the Twins were hesitant to play Miranda at the hot corner as he dealt with a shoulder issue. He got regular time there with Lewis on the IL, and only three players ranked lower than him, according to SDI. Miranda will get more time at first base and DH with Lewis back in the infield mix. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -0.4 SDI (11th), Willi Castro -1.3 SDI (13th) Last season, Correa was a Gold Glove finalist despite not ranking well by many defensive metrics. His plantar fasciitis likely impacted his defensive ability during the season, which was the biggest reason for the drop in his performance. Correa has previously compiled some strong SDI totals, so he’s a candidate to move up the rankings throughout the season. Castro is slightly overmatched at shortstop but was able to fill in when Correa was on the IL. Javier Báez, Bo Bichette, and Paul DeJong are the only players behind Castro in the rankings. Left Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified The Twins have seen four players start 14 or more games in left field including Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Willi Castro, and Trevor Larnach. Minnesota will likely continue to rotate players through the position, so no single player may accumulate enough innings to qualify for the SDI rankings. Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified Like left field, the Twins didn’t have anyone qualify for the rankings. However, Byron Buxton has now started 45 games in center and played over 400 innings. He should qualify for future updates, and it will be interesting to see how he fares compared to the rest of the league. His Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average are both in the 92nd percentile or higher. Buxton has a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist if he can stay healthy. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 2.3 SDI (5th) Kepler finished the 2023 season with 2.5 SDI, nearly matching that total in the first two months of the 2024 campaign. He has been known for his strong defense throughout his time with the Twins. Kyle Tucker is one spot ahead of him but is on the IL, so he won’t qualify at the next update. His arm strength ranks in the 70th percentile and his Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value are on the 83rd percentile or higher. It would be fun to see Kepler win a Gold Glove in what could be his final season in Minnesota. dk1BM0tfWGw0TUFRPT1fVkZKWlUxWUVVUWNBRFZjS0JRQUFBRmRUQUZnR1ZGTUFVUVFDQmdwWEJBTUhVUXRX.mp4 Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article
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In recent weeks, Trevor Larnach and José Miranda have reinserted themselves into the team’s long-term plans. It can be easy to discount top prospects who struggle, but patience is required when developing big-league talent. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Every team would love for their top prospects to make a splash during their big-league debut and go on to have a 15-year Hall of Fame career. Unfortunately, multiple obstacles can hinder a player’s development throughout their professional career. Fans want players to be instant superstars, but organizations must be patient in helping players overcome obstacles put in a player’s path. Twins fans are getting an up-close-and-personal view of this playing out in the organization. Minnesota expected the trio of Edouardo Julien, Matt Wallner, and Alex Kirilloff to be contributing to the big-league roster. Instead, all three players are at Triple-A, trying to rediscover their offensive approach. Two other young hitters have seen their fair share of struggles in recent seasons, but positive signs in 2024 have them trending back in a positive direction. Trevor Larnach, OF The Twins drafted Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Oregon State University, where his powerful swing helped his team win the College World Series. It was the first time since 1969 that Minnesota selected a collegiate outfielder with their first pick in the MLB Draft. At the time, the Twins had plenty of positive things to say about him as they were drawn to him by his high exit velocities in college. "He's definitely a corner outfielder and we think he throws enough and moves enough to play right," scouting director Sean Johnson said. "This is really about an offensive player with upside and power." Previous Obstacles: Larnach has dealt with multiple injuries during his professional career, including a turf toe, a double core muscle injury, a wrist injury, and groin soreness. His time at the big-league level continued to be interrupted by injuries while mixing in some poor performance. Injuries played a part in his lackluster overall production because he attempted to play through bumps and bruises, impacting him on both sides of the ball. 2024 Recap: Historically, Larnach struggled to hit offspeed and breaking pitches which caused the Twins to demote him last season. In 2024, he is seeing fastballs less regularly (down 8%) and offspeed pitches more often (up 10%). Last year, he posted a .150 SLG against offspeed pitches and raised that to a .321 SLG so far this season. He’s also dropped his Whiff% on breaking pitches (down 21.9%) and offspeed pitches (down 7.8%). Larnach will likely never be an above-average hitter versus non-fastballs, but he’s made incremental improvements. Pitchers can’t throw him slop and retire him as easily as in previous seasons. José Miranda, INF The Twins drafted Miranda in the second round of the 2016 MLB Draft (73rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico. MLB Pipeline didn’t have him ranked among the top available prospects in the draft, but the Twins were happy with the signing at the time. "He has a really good swing," Twins scouting director Deron Johnson said. "He's aggressive. We're going to send him out as a shortstop, but realistically, he's probably a third baseman. But he's a really good player and really skilled." Previous Obstacles: Miranda was set to be a regular for the 2023 Twins before a shoulder injury in spring training slowed him down. He attempted to play through the injury and struggled to produce offensively. In 40 games, he posted a 57 OPS+ with a 15.8 K%. Defensively, the Twins couldn’t use him at third base because of his shoulder issues. Other players passed him by on the organizational depth chart, so he had much to prove for the 2024 campaign. 2024 Recap: Miranda entered play this weekend with a 124 OPS+, ten points higher than his OPS+ from his rookie season. He makes consistent contact with a Whiff% and K% in the 70th percentile or higher. There have been multiple areas of growth for him in 2024, including career-high totals in Barrel % (7.4), Barrel/PA (5.9), and Launch Angle (15.7). His base running value has also made significant jumps despite being a slower runner. During his rookie season, his base running value sat in the 34th percentile, and he’s increased that to the 72nd percentile this season. Miranda is finding ways to be an above-average regular, which adds tremendous value. Miranda and Larnach might never become All-Stars, but both have an opportunity to be above-average regulars at the big-league level. Teams need players like this to stay competitive and complete a roster. They were once viewed as top-100 prospects, and their path to regulars has seen some obstacles. Still, they are positively contributing to the 2024 Twins, and other players can follow in their footsteps. How have expectations changed for Larnach and Miranda? Which player will have the most significant impact on the club in future years? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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Driveline Baseball has helped multiple Twins players improve in recent offseasons. However, they are wrong to think Griffin Jax should shift back to a starting role. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Baseball is a game that is constantly evolving, with teams looking for a way to gain a slight advantage over the opposition. One trend in recent years is turning elite bullpen arms into starting pitchers. Players like Jordan Hicks, Garrett Crochet, and Michael King have made the transition during the last two seasons with varying levels of success. Many relievers, including those on the Twins, served as starters before shifting to a relief role because of performance or injury concerns. Some of the best relievers in Minnesota history were “failed starters,” including Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Shifting to a bullpen role usually allows pitchers to add velocity and limit their pitch selection to improve their ability to get outs. Previously, teams didn’t consider shifting players back to starting if they provided value out of the bullpen, because why would they fix something that isn’t broken? Former Twins pitcher Zack Littell is another example of a reliever who has shifted back to a starting role, and he thinks others will follow that same path. “I think you’re starting to see it more and more,” Littell said. “There’s some indicators like you look at the bullpen guy and he throws a lot of strikes. He punches out a good amount of guys. He doesn’t walk guys. He might give up some more hits in the bullpen, but as a starter you can kind of get away with that.” Griffin Jax is one of those “failed starters” who has found renewed life as a dominant late-inning arm. Earlier this week, Driveline Baseball posted a video from Chris Langin, their Director of Pitching, explaining why Jax should be the next reliever to jump from reliever to starting pitcher. To get a complete picture of Jax, it’s essential to look back at his time as a starting pitcher and see how he has developed during his bullpen tenure. Jax spent most of his minor league career as a starter in the Twins farm system. He made 56 minor league appearances, and 50 came in a starting role. He posted a 3.24 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 6.8 K/9. His results as a starter at the big-league level were less successful. In 14 games, he allowed 47 earned runs on 68 hits in 69 1/3 innings. Jax struggled to get swings and misses as his K/9 dropped to 7.0, and batters posted a .842 OPS against him. His stuff wasn’t working as a starter, so the team moved him to the bullpen. Jax has traits that are different compared to other relievers. Many bullpen arms focus on throwing two or three pitches in relief, but Jax has continued using a starter's repertoire with a four-pitch mix. His sweeper is his most regularly used pitch (41%), so he’d likely need to increase his fastball usage (27%) if he moved back to the rotation. In 2024, his fastball has allowed a .171 SLG, but the xSLG is .400, which is a sign that he might be getting lucky. His increased velocity in the bullpen is a sign of some mechanical adjustments, but there is no guarantee that he would sustain these changes with a starter’s workload. Moving Jax to a starting role can’t happen in the middle of the season, so this is likely something he would need to prepare for in the offseason. Looking ahead to next season, every current member of the Twins starting rotation will still be under contract. There is also organizational depth, such as Louie Varland, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya. Injuries can always impact a team’s depth, but the Twins seem to have more than enough starters for 2025. For now, Jax can concentrate on being one of the game’s best relievers and not worry about switching back to a starting role. Should the Twins consider making Jax a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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Should the Twins Shift Griffin Jax Back to Starting Pitcher?
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Baseball is a game that is constantly evolving, with teams looking for a way to gain a slight advantage over the opposition. One trend in recent years is turning elite bullpen arms into starting pitchers. Players like Jordan Hicks, Garrett Crochet, and Michael King have made the transition during the last two seasons with varying levels of success. Many relievers, including those on the Twins, served as starters before shifting to a relief role because of performance or injury concerns. Some of the best relievers in Minnesota history were “failed starters,” including Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Shifting to a bullpen role usually allows pitchers to add velocity and limit their pitch selection to improve their ability to get outs. Previously, teams didn’t consider shifting players back to starting if they provided value out of the bullpen, because why would they fix something that isn’t broken? Former Twins pitcher Zack Littell is another example of a reliever who has shifted back to a starting role, and he thinks others will follow that same path. “I think you’re starting to see it more and more,” Littell said. “There’s some indicators like you look at the bullpen guy and he throws a lot of strikes. He punches out a good amount of guys. He doesn’t walk guys. He might give up some more hits in the bullpen, but as a starter you can kind of get away with that.” Griffin Jax is one of those “failed starters” who has found renewed life as a dominant late-inning arm. Earlier this week, Driveline Baseball posted a video from Chris Langin, their Director of Pitching, explaining why Jax should be the next reliever to jump from reliever to starting pitcher. To get a complete picture of Jax, it’s essential to look back at his time as a starting pitcher and see how he has developed during his bullpen tenure. Jax spent most of his minor league career as a starter in the Twins farm system. He made 56 minor league appearances, and 50 came in a starting role. He posted a 3.24 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and 6.8 K/9. His results as a starter at the big-league level were less successful. In 14 games, he allowed 47 earned runs on 68 hits in 69 1/3 innings. Jax struggled to get swings and misses as his K/9 dropped to 7.0, and batters posted a .842 OPS against him. His stuff wasn’t working as a starter, so the team moved him to the bullpen. Jax has traits that are different compared to other relievers. Many bullpen arms focus on throwing two or three pitches in relief, but Jax has continued using a starter's repertoire with a four-pitch mix. His sweeper is his most regularly used pitch (41%), so he’d likely need to increase his fastball usage (27%) if he moved back to the rotation. In 2024, his fastball has allowed a .171 SLG, but the xSLG is .400, which is a sign that he might be getting lucky. His increased velocity in the bullpen is a sign of some mechanical adjustments, but there is no guarantee that he would sustain these changes with a starter’s workload. Moving Jax to a starting role can’t happen in the middle of the season, so this is likely something he would need to prepare for in the offseason. Looking ahead to next season, every current member of the Twins starting rotation will still be under contract. There is also organizational depth, such as Louie Varland, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya. Injuries can always impact a team’s depth, but the Twins seem to have more than enough starters for 2025. For now, Jax can concentrate on being one of the game’s best relievers and not worry about switching back to a starting role. Should the Twins consider making Jax a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. -
10 Facts About Willie Mays’ Time with the Minneapolis Millers
Cody Christie posted an article in Minor Leagues
The Minneapolis Millers were a charter member of the American Association in 1902 and were purchased by the New York Giants in 1946. Twin Cities baseball fans would have to wait until the 1960s for a major league team, so the Millers offered a chance to witness greatness. Willie Mays had been playing professionally since he was a teenager, with a stint on the Birmingham Black Barons of the Negro American League. In 13 games, he went 6-for-43 (.233 BA) with three extra-base hits. After graduating high school, he signed with the Giants and played his first professional season in the Class B Interstate League. His tenure with the Millers began in 1951. Fact 1: The Giants had two Triple-A teams, so it wasn’t guaranteed that Mays would play in Minneapolis. New York’s other Triple-A team played in Ottawa but the field and facilities were sub-par. Mays was considered a top prospect, so sending him to Minneapolis made sense. Fact 2: Mays helped the Millers win 13-of-19 spring training games by dominating at the plate. He posted a .408 batting average with five home runs and 29 RBI. He seemed more than ready to help the team when the regular season began. Fact 3: The Millers started the season with 13 road games to avoid some of the cold spring weather in Minneapolis. Mays posted a .352 batting average on the road trip, making Minneapolis fans even more excited about seeing him in person. Fact 4: Mays’ defense would become legendary at the big-league level including his famous catch in the World Series. There were already signs of his strong defense with the Millers. The Minneapolis Tribune wrote, “His throwing for power has lived up to reputation. … His throws are not ‘arches.’ Rather, they are power-laden, even when he throws to put the ball into the hands of a receiver on the ground.” They couldn’t have been more accurate in their scouting report of Mays. Fact 5: Halsey Hall wrote about Mays as the Millers prepared for their home opener. He had a simple statement that would stand the test of time. “We think you’ll like Willie.” For generations of baseball fans, this was a mantra to live by. Fact 6: Mays lived and played in Minneapolis before the Civil Rights Movement, so that meant he lived in an area called “one of the centers of black life in the Twin Cities in the 1950s.” He rented a room at 3616 4th Ave, which was close enough to walk to Nicollet Park, home of the Millers. Fact 7: Over 6,000 fans attended the Millers' home opener despite rainy conditions to get a first-hand view of Mays. The game was halted in the seventh inning but not before the star outfielder collected three hits and made tremendous defensive plays. Fact 8: During the homestand, Mays made “one of the greatest catches you will ever see.” He tracked down a line drive hit to the way and leaped to make the catch. Mays doubled off the runner at second base to finish the incredible play. The batter put his head down, assumed he got a double and didn’t believe the umpire when he was told that the ball had been caught. Fact 9: Poor weather in the early part of the season meant few Minneapolis residents attended Millers games. The team played at home for a three-week stretch and averaged fewer than 2,700 fans per game. Many hoped to watch Mays when the weather warmed up, but the Giants had other plans. Fact 10: Mays dominated during his time in a Millers uniform. In 35 games, he slashed .477/.524/.799 (1.323) with 20 doubles, eight triples, and four home runs. Mays also had more walks (42) than strikeouts (34). On May 24, New York decided it was time for their young phenom to get the call. Bonus Fact: Some fans were upset that Mays left before they could see him in person. Giants President Horace Stoneham released a quarter-page ad in the Sunday edition of the Minneapolis Tribune to explain the decision. “We appreciate his worth to the Millers, but in all fairness Mays himself must be a factor in these considerations. Merit must be recognized. … Mays is entitled to his promotion, and the chance to prove that he can play major league baseball.” Mays was more than ready to play major league baseball even with some early struggles. His big-league career has been well documented and relived in recent days so there is no need to rehash those accolades. However, his career as one of baseball’s giants can be traced back to Nicollet Park in Minneapolis, even if not many people were there to see it. Who do you view as the greatest baseball player of all time? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. -
Fans across the baseball landscape remember Willie Mays as the greatest baseball player ever after his sudden passing earlier this week. His baseball journey had multiple stops, one of which was a brief stint with the Minneapolis Millers. Image courtesy of © Malcolm Emmons-USA TODAY Sports The Minneapolis Millers were a charter member of the American Association in 1902 and were purchased by the New York Giants in 1946. Twin Cities baseball fans would have to wait until the 1960s for a major league team, so the Millers offered a chance to witness greatness. Willie Mays had been playing professionally since he was a teenager, with a stint on the Birmingham Black Barons of the Negro American League. In 13 games, he went 6-for-43 (.233 BA) with three extra-base hits. After graduating high school, he signed with the Giants and played his first professional season in the Class B Interstate League. His tenure with the Millers began in 1951. Fact 1: The Giants had two Triple-A teams, so it wasn’t guaranteed that Mays would play in Minneapolis. New York’s other Triple-A team played in Ottawa but the field and facilities were sub-par. Mays was considered a top prospect, so sending him to Minneapolis made sense. Fact 2: Mays helped the Millers win 13-of-19 spring training games by dominating at the plate. He posted a .408 batting average with five home runs and 29 RBI. He seemed more than ready to help the team when the regular season began. Fact 3: The Millers started the season with 13 road games to avoid some of the cold spring weather in Minneapolis. Mays posted a .352 batting average on the road trip, making Minneapolis fans even more excited about seeing him in person. Fact 4: Mays’ defense would become legendary at the big-league level including his famous catch in the World Series. There were already signs of his strong defense with the Millers. The Minneapolis Tribune wrote, “His throwing for power has lived up to reputation. … His throws are not ‘arches.’ Rather, they are power-laden, even when he throws to put the ball into the hands of a receiver on the ground.” They couldn’t have been more accurate in their scouting report of Mays. Fact 5: Halsey Hall wrote about Mays as the Millers prepared for their home opener. He had a simple statement that would stand the test of time. “We think you’ll like Willie.” For generations of baseball fans, this was a mantra to live by. Fact 6: Mays lived and played in Minneapolis before the Civil Rights Movement, so that meant he lived in an area called “one of the centers of black life in the Twin Cities in the 1950s.” He rented a room at 3616 4th Ave, which was close enough to walk to Nicollet Park, home of the Millers. Fact 7: Over 6,000 fans attended the Millers' home opener despite rainy conditions to get a first-hand view of Mays. The game was halted in the seventh inning but not before the star outfielder collected three hits and made tremendous defensive plays. Fact 8: During the homestand, Mays made “one of the greatest catches you will ever see.” He tracked down a line drive hit to the way and leaped to make the catch. Mays doubled off the runner at second base to finish the incredible play. The batter put his head down, assumed he got a double and didn’t believe the umpire when he was told that the ball had been caught. Fact 9: Poor weather in the early part of the season meant few Minneapolis residents attended Millers games. The team played at home for a three-week stretch and averaged fewer than 2,700 fans per game. Many hoped to watch Mays when the weather warmed up, but the Giants had other plans. Fact 10: Mays dominated during his time in a Millers uniform. In 35 games, he slashed .477/.524/.799 (1.323) with 20 doubles, eight triples, and four home runs. Mays also had more walks (42) than strikeouts (34). On May 24, New York decided it was time for their young phenom to get the call. Bonus Fact: Some fans were upset that Mays left before they could see him in person. Giants President Horace Stoneham released a quarter-page ad in the Sunday edition of the Minneapolis Tribune to explain the decision. “We appreciate his worth to the Millers, but in all fairness Mays himself must be a factor in these considerations. Merit must be recognized. … Mays is entitled to his promotion, and the chance to prove that he can play major league baseball.” Mays was more than ready to play major league baseball even with some early struggles. His big-league career has been well documented and relived in recent days so there is no need to rehash those accolades. However, his career as one of baseball’s giants can be traced back to Nicollet Park in downtown Minneapolis, even if not many people were there to see it. Who do you view as the greatest baseball player of all time? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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Each of the four teams below was in the playoffs last season, with two of the teams facing off in the ALCS. Unfortunately for these fan bases, things haven’t played out as expected in 2024, putting the front offices in a challenging situation. Should they be buyers and hope for a second-half surge into a Wild Card spot? Or is it time to build for the future and trade away some big-league assets? There is no perfect path, and each team has until next month to decide how the trade deadline will play out. Toronto Blue Jays (35-39 record, 4.3% to make the postseason) Current Situation: The Blue Jays are 15 games behind the Yankees for first place in the AL East, so a Wild Card spot is their only chance of making the playoffs. Currently, Toronto is below .500 and sits 5.5 games behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot. It seemed like the Blue Jays were in the middle of a strong winning window with their current core pieces, and that’s how the front office has treated the team in recent years. However, they have stalled and watched other AL East teams pass them in the process. Players to Watch: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be one of the top names shopped at the 2024 trade deadline. He is making $19.9 million this season and has one year remaining of arbitration eligibility. He has a 130 OPS+ for his career, and has made three straight All-Star appearances. Adding a slugger of Guerrero’s caliber can upgrade any contender’s lineup. Toronto can keep him for one more year, or try to cash in while his value is higher. Yusei Kikuchi is another intriguing name to watch. He is in the final year of his three-year, $36-million deal. Over the last two seasons, he has been one of the AL’s most consistent starters, with a 3.80 ERA, a 109 ERA+, and 9.5 K/9. The Twins have seen some inconsistencies with their starting rotation, and Kikuchi could add much-needed depth. Tampa Bay Rays (36-39 record, 0.2% to make the postseason) Current Situation: Tampa Bay has been the poster child for how organizations can be successful on a small budget. Unfortunately, some of their luck has run out this season, with their pitching underperforming and (until recently) their power bats slumbering. The Rays sit at the bottom of the AL East and are 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, with three teams ahead of them. Over the next month, the Rays might be able to battle back into contention, but it seems likely that the club will be sellers in July. Players to Watch: Many contending teams want to add reliable relievers for the stretch run, and the Rays are known for their ability to get the most out of the bullpen. Garret Cleavinger, a left-handed reliever, is a name teams should be calling about. He has the highest strikeout rate in the Rays bullpen, and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next season. Minnesota has had Steven Okert step into the bullpen’s number-one lefty role, but Caleb Thielbar has struggled to start the year. Adding Cleavinger will boost a contending team for some of the tough lefty hitters heading to October. Houston Astros (35-40 record, 17.1% to make the postseason) Current Situation: The Astros have been a junior-circuit powerhouse for the last decade, with seven straight appearances in the ALCS, four AL pennants and two World Series titles. Every dynasty must end, though, and the team’s slow start will make it hard to recover in 2024. Houston is just half a game ahead of Texas for second place in the AL West, and 8.5 games behind Seattle. The Wild Card race is a little closer (6.5 games back), but the focus needs to be on getting to .500 before worrying about a playoff spot. Player to Watch: The Twins traded Ryan Pressly to the Astros in 2018 for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino. He quickly became one of the game’s best late-inning relievers as the Astros had him focus on more regular usage of his breaking pitches, especially his curveball. His 2024 performance hasn’t matched his career track record, though, as he has struggled with control, including a league-high six wild pitches. He has a $14 million vesting option for 2025 that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 50 appearances this season. Houston might want to dump his contract, and the Twins can use his playoff experience if he gets back on track. Texas Rangers (34-40 record, 3.0% to make the postseason) Current Situation: Like the Astros, the Rangers sit well below .500 and are clinging to small playoff odds. Last season, Texas struggled at the end of the regular season but qualified for the playoffs and ended up with the World Series title. The Rangers had a clear plan for this season, which was to survive the first half while waiting for their top pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle) to return from injury in the second half. It seemed like a good idea on paper, but they have dug themselves a hole where it may be impossible to escape. Players to Watch: Max Scherzer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a free agent at season’s end. There are only so many bullets left in his arm after 15 years at the big-league level. He wants to win in October, and his best chance of doing that this season is outside of Texas. Scherzer would still be owed over $12 million for the season’s final two months, and the Twins likely don’t have that kind of payroll space. He must prove that he’s healthy over the next month, and the teams must find a way to make the money work. In the bullpen, Kirby Yates has been outstanding, while taking over the closer’s role for the Rangers. He’s posted a 1.07 ERA, with a 0.95 WHIP and a 33.3 K%. Yates is on a one-year deal, so he will likely be one of the hottest trade commodities before the end of July. Will the Twins pay a high cost for a reliever on an expiring contract? Which player discussed above is the best fit for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
- 24 comments
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- vladimir guerrero jr
- yusei kikuchi
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Multiple powerhouse teams in the American League have failed to live up to expectations. What players could be available at the trade deadline as these perennial contenders switch from buyers to sellers? Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Each of the four teams below was in the playoffs last season, with two of the teams facing off in the ALCS. Unfortunately for these fan bases, things haven’t played out as expected in 2024, putting the front offices in a challenging situation. Should they be buyers and hope for a second-half surge into a Wild Card spot? Or is it time to build for the future and trade away some big-league assets? There is no perfect path, and each team has until next month to decide how the trade deadline will play out. Toronto Blue Jays (35-39 record, 4.3% to make the postseason) Current Situation: The Blue Jays are 15 games behind the Yankees for first place in the AL East, so a Wild Card spot is their only chance of making the playoffs. Currently, Toronto is below .500 and sits 5.5 games behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot. It seemed like the Blue Jays were in the middle of a strong winning window with their current core pieces, and that’s how the front office has treated the team in recent years. However, they have stalled and watched other AL East teams pass them in the process. Players to Watch: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be one of the top names shopped at the 2024 trade deadline. He is making $19.9 million this season and has one year remaining of arbitration eligibility. He has a 130 OPS+ for his career, and has made three straight All-Star appearances. Adding a slugger of Guerrero’s caliber can upgrade any contender’s lineup. Toronto can keep him for one more year, or try to cash in while his value is higher. Yusei Kikuchi is another intriguing name to watch. He is in the final year of his three-year, $36-million deal. Over the last two seasons, he has been one of the AL’s most consistent starters, with a 3.80 ERA, a 109 ERA+, and 9.5 K/9. The Twins have seen some inconsistencies with their starting rotation, and Kikuchi could add much-needed depth. Tampa Bay Rays (36-39 record, 0.2% to make the postseason) Current Situation: Tampa Bay has been the poster child for how organizations can be successful on a small budget. Unfortunately, some of their luck has run out this season, with their pitching underperforming and (until recently) their power bats slumbering. The Rays sit at the bottom of the AL East and are 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, with three teams ahead of them. Over the next month, the Rays might be able to battle back into contention, but it seems likely that the club will be sellers in July. Players to Watch: Many contending teams want to add reliable relievers for the stretch run, and the Rays are known for their ability to get the most out of the bullpen. Garret Cleavinger, a left-handed reliever, is a name teams should be calling about. He has the highest strikeout rate in the Rays bullpen, and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time next season. Minnesota has had Steven Okert step into the bullpen’s number-one lefty role, but Caleb Thielbar has struggled to start the year. Adding Cleavinger will boost a contending team for some of the tough lefty hitters heading to October. Houston Astros (35-40 record, 17.1% to make the postseason) Current Situation: The Astros have been a junior-circuit powerhouse for the last decade, with seven straight appearances in the ALCS, four AL pennants and two World Series titles. Every dynasty must end, though, and the team’s slow start will make it hard to recover in 2024. Houston is just half a game ahead of Texas for second place in the AL West, and 8.5 games behind Seattle. The Wild Card race is a little closer (6.5 games back), but the focus needs to be on getting to .500 before worrying about a playoff spot. Player to Watch: The Twins traded Ryan Pressly to the Astros in 2018 for Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino. He quickly became one of the game’s best late-inning relievers as the Astros had him focus on more regular usage of his breaking pitches, especially his curveball. His 2024 performance hasn’t matched his career track record, though, as he has struggled with control, including a league-high six wild pitches. He has a $14 million vesting option for 2025 that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 50 appearances this season. Houston might want to dump his contract, and the Twins can use his playoff experience if he gets back on track. Texas Rangers (34-40 record, 3.0% to make the postseason) Current Situation: Like the Astros, the Rangers sit well below .500 and are clinging to small playoff odds. Last season, Texas struggled at the end of the regular season but qualified for the playoffs and ended up with the World Series title. The Rangers had a clear plan for this season, which was to survive the first half while waiting for their top pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle) to return from injury in the second half. It seemed like a good idea on paper, but they have dug themselves a hole where it may be impossible to escape. Players to Watch: Max Scherzer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and a free agent at season’s end. There are only so many bullets left in his arm after 15 years at the big-league level. He wants to win in October, and his best chance of doing that this season is outside of Texas. Scherzer would still be owed over $12 million for the season’s final two months, and the Twins likely don’t have that kind of payroll space. He must prove that he’s healthy over the next month, and the teams must find a way to make the money work. In the bullpen, Kirby Yates has been outstanding, while taking over the closer’s role for the Rangers. He’s posted a 1.07 ERA, with a 0.95 WHIP and a 33.3 K%. Yates is on a one-year deal, so he will likely be one of the hottest trade commodities before the end of July. Will the Twins pay a high cost for a reliever on an expiring contract? Which player discussed above is the best fit for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article
- 24 replies
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- vladimir guerrero jr
- yusei kikuchi
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Fans have clamored for the Twins to build a pitching pipeline since the organization hired Derek Falvey away from Cleveland. Recent draft picks highlight Minnesota’s ability to target pitchers in the mid-to-late rounds and turn them into legitimate pitching prospects. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Zebby Matthews) Mid-market teams like the Twins must hit on their draft picks to have a successful organization. Younger players are needed to supplement the big-league roster and keep the team’s winning window open as long as possible. The Twins hired Derek Falvey to help in this endeavor, especially with his background in pitching development. Every fanbase wants their team to have a starting rotation full of homegrown playoff-caliber starters, but that is an unrealistic expectation. You need a process for drafting and developing pitchers who can make meaningful contributions at the big-league level. It’s easy for fans to focus on early-round picks, likely the result of the instantaneous impact of NFL Draft picks. MLB’s Draft is an intricate combination of talent evaluation with players’ personalities, while making projections for the future. On paper, this might seem like an impossible task, but the Twins have built up their farm system with mid-to-late-round draft picks in recent years. Let’s examine those picks and where they rank as prospects in the Twins system. 2022: RHP Zebby Matthews 8th round pick, 234th overall Matthews has been one of the biggest risers among Twins prospects this season. Entering the year, he wasn’t ranked among Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects and jumped to 14th during the latest update. He’s been a strike-throwing machine this season with an eye-popping 70-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58 1/3 innings. Opponents have been limited to a .459 OPS against him. His velocity has also continued to rise as he threw his fastest pitch of his career (98.6 mph) over the weekend. The Twins have shown the ability to add velocity to late-round picks, and Matthews' ability to do this might result in him being a top-100 prospect by the season’s end. 2022: RHP Cory Lewis 9th round pick, 264th overall Lewis began the year on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement but has worked his way back into the Double-A rotation. Lewis was one of last season’s biggest surprises as he flourished during his professional debut. In 101 1/3 innings, he posted a 2.49 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. His pitching repertoire is unique because he has a knuckleball that is part of his five-pitch mix. The Twins have limited his innings in his return from the injured list, so it will be intriguing to see what he can do as he gets stretched out in the second half. 2021: RHP David Festa 13th round pick, 399th overall Festa is developing into one of the biggest draft steals in recent memory. The Twins have helped him turn into a borderline top-100 prospect by posting dominant numbers, and he is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. He has the highest K% in Triple-A (minimum of 50 IP) and is also the youngest player to record double-digit strikeouts three different times this season at Triple-A or above. His changeup has baffled hitters with a 43.6 Whiff%. Festa will pitch for the Twins this season and is part of the team’s long-term pitching plans. 2019: RHP Louie Varland 15th round pick, 449th overall Varland might have lost some of his prospect shine with his poor start to the 2024 campaign. However, he bounced back nicely in recent weeks with two strong appearances back with the Twins. Minnesota might need to shift him back to a relief role for the stretch run, but the team is committed to keeping him stretched out as a starting pitcher for the time being. Picks from the 15th round are not guaranteed to make the big leagues. Varland is one of two players to make the big leagues from his draft round in 2019. No matter his role moving forward, Varland has been able to make improvements to alter his prospect outlook. The 2024 MLB Draft takes place next month, and the Twins will attempt to identify players like those mentioned above. Not all of these players are going to turn into top-of-the-rotation starters, but it speaks volumes that this front office has identified pitchers with moldable arms to build the farm system. Can the Twins continue to find pitchers in the mid-to-late rounds of the Draft? Which pitcher will have the most significant impact on Minnesota’s future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
- 30 replies
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- zebby matthews
- david festa
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Mid-market teams like the Twins must hit on their draft picks to have a successful organization. Younger players are needed to supplement the big-league roster and keep the team’s winning window open as long as possible. The Twins hired Derek Falvey to help in this endeavor, especially with his background in pitching development. Every fanbase wants their team to have a starting rotation full of homegrown playoff-caliber starters, but that is an unrealistic expectation. You need a process for drafting and developing pitchers who can make meaningful contributions at the big-league level. It’s easy for fans to focus on early-round picks, likely the result of the instantaneous impact of NFL Draft picks. MLB’s Draft is an intricate combination of talent evaluation with players’ personalities, while making projections for the future. On paper, this might seem like an impossible task, but the Twins have built up their farm system with mid-to-late-round draft picks in recent years. Let’s examine those picks and where they rank as prospects in the Twins system. 2022: RHP Zebby Matthews 8th round pick, 234th overall Matthews has been one of the biggest risers among Twins prospects this season. Entering the year, he wasn’t ranked among Twins Daily’s top-20 prospects and jumped to 14th during the latest update. He’s been a strike-throwing machine this season with an eye-popping 70-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 58 1/3 innings. Opponents have been limited to a .459 OPS against him. His velocity has also continued to rise as he threw his fastest pitch of his career (98.6 mph) over the weekend. The Twins have shown the ability to add velocity to late-round picks, and Matthews' ability to do this might result in him being a top-100 prospect by the season’s end. 2022: RHP Cory Lewis 9th round pick, 264th overall Lewis began the year on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement but has worked his way back into the Double-A rotation. Lewis was one of last season’s biggest surprises as he flourished during his professional debut. In 101 1/3 innings, he posted a 2.49 ERA with a 1.06 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. His pitching repertoire is unique because he has a knuckleball that is part of his five-pitch mix. The Twins have limited his innings in his return from the injured list, so it will be intriguing to see what he can do as he gets stretched out in the second half. 2021: RHP David Festa 13th round pick, 399th overall Festa is developing into one of the biggest draft steals in recent memory. The Twins have helped him turn into a borderline top-100 prospect by posting dominant numbers, and he is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. He has the highest K% in Triple-A (minimum of 50 IP) and is also the youngest player to record double-digit strikeouts three different times this season at Triple-A or above. His changeup has baffled hitters with a 43.6 Whiff%. Festa will pitch for the Twins this season and is part of the team’s long-term pitching plans. 2019: RHP Louie Varland 15th round pick, 449th overall Varland might have lost some of his prospect shine with his poor start to the 2024 campaign. However, he bounced back nicely in recent weeks with two strong appearances back with the Twins. Minnesota might need to shift him back to a relief role for the stretch run, but the team is committed to keeping him stretched out as a starting pitcher for the time being. Picks from the 15th round are not guaranteed to make the big leagues. Varland is one of two players to make the big leagues from his draft round in 2019. No matter his role moving forward, Varland has been able to make improvements to alter his prospect outlook. The 2024 MLB Draft takes place next month, and the Twins will attempt to identify players like those mentioned above. Not all of these players are going to turn into top-of-the-rotation starters, but it speaks volumes that this front office has identified pitchers with moldable arms to build the farm system. Can the Twins continue to find pitchers in the mid-to-late rounds of the Draft? Which pitcher will have the most significant impact on Minnesota’s future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
- 30 comments
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- zebby matthews
- david festa
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Alex Kirilloff, Joe Ryan, and the Lost Value of Hidden Injuries
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Alex Kiirilloff was off to an underwhelming start to the 2024 campaign. In 57 games, he hit .201/.270/.384, with an 86 OPS+ and a career-high 26.4 K%. He provided the team with uncompetitive at-bats and racked up negative value on the field. FanGraphs pegs him at -0.3 WAR, while Baseball Reference has him even lower, at -0.4. Something needed to change, so the Twins decided to option him to Triple-A, there to try and rediscover his swing. Unfortunately, the story gets murkier from here. Kirilloff never reported to St. Paul, and was in the Twins’ clubhouse before their series against the Rays began Tuesday. He’s going on the major-league 10-day injured list for a back issue. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters before the game that communication about the injury needed to be better, from Kirilloff's end. Kirilloff has dealt with a brutal share of injuries, including nagging wrist problems, resulting in multiple offseason surgeries. Kirilloff, Baldelli, and Derek Falvey have been asked about Kirilloff’s health throughout his prolonged slump, and the answer was always that the player was healthy. Now, the optics look bad, as the player heads to the IL instead of trying to fix his approach at Triple-A. Baseball is a game unlike many other major sports, because there is less contact, and the season is stretched over 162 games. In every sport, the culture of playing through injuries has been lauded for decades. Old-school managers like one-time Twins skipper Billy Martin threw around the phrase “rub some dirt on it,” and sent the player back out there to suffer through ailment while providing the team with compromised performances. Minnesota saw some of this last season with Carlos Correa, as he dealt with a plantar fasciitis injury that caused him to have the worst season of his career. He was playing poorly, but the Twins knew about the injury, and there was a conscious decision to continue playing him regularly. It’s unclear when Kirilloff’s back began bothering him, but his offensive performance took a significant downturn at the beginning of May. Over his last 31 games, he went 11-for-77 (.143), with six extra-base hits and a 27-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Some of his home runs came in critical spots for the team, so his WPA was positive during this stretch. However, a batting average below .150 is unsustainable for a corner outfielder. He was becoming unusable, and hiding an injury was hurting himself and the team. In recent memory, Kirilloff isn’t the only young player to hide an injury from the Twins. Last season, Joe Ryan took the mound in Atlanta after tweaking his groin muscle during warm-ups. He tried to pitch through the injury, but the Braves teed off on him for six earned runs on nine hits in three innings. Instead of telling the team about the injury, he continued to pitch in the coming weeks, but the results remained lousy. In a seven-game stretch, he posted an 8.63 ERA, with opponents posting a 1.137 OPS with 17 home runs. Ryan was worth -1.12 WPA before telling the team his groin was bothering him. Minnesota was in the heart of a pennant race, and there’s no question that Ryan’s performance hurt the team’s chances of winning. Baseball is a game that takes pride in its storied history, but it also means that it takes generations for meaningful change to impact the game. Kirilloff and Ryan's decisions to hide injuries from the Twins are part of a deeper baseball culture that needs to be remedied throughout the organization, and in others. Players shouldn’t sit out every time they have a bump or bruise, but they need to disclose injuries to their team to avoid prolonged slumps that can cost the team significant wins. No player will have a Cal Ripken Jr. streak of consecutive games played in the modern game. Players must make a concerted effort to seek medical attention, even if they feel like it is a minor issue. Teams, in turn, have to think hard about how they respond to reports of nagging injuries or soreness, to best engender that kind of transparency. How can the Twins foster this culture change in their players? Leave a comment and start the discussion. -
Alex Kirilloff and Joe Ryan are supposed to be part of the Minnesota Twins core, but both players have hidden injuries from the team over the last two seasons. Playing through injury is part of baseball culture, but it must change moving forward. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Alex Kiirilloff was off to an underwhelming start to the 2024 campaign. In 57 games, he hit .201/.270/.384 (.653) with a 86 OPS+ and a career-high 26.4 K%. He provided the team with uncompetitive at-bats and racked up negative value on the field. FanGraphs pegs him at -0.3 WAR, while Baseball Reference has him even lower with a -0.4 WAR. Something needed to change, so the Twins decided to option him to Triple-A to try and rediscover his swing. Unfortunately, the story gets murkier from here. Kirilloff never reported to St. Paul and was in the Twins’ clubhouse before their series started against the Rays. He’s going on the Major League 10-day IL for a back issue. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters before the game that communication from Kirilloff’s end needed to be better about the injury. Kirilloff has dealt with injuries, including nagging wrist problems, resulting in multiple offseason surgeries. Kirilloff, Baldelli, and Derek Falvey have been asked about Kirilloff’s health throughout his prolonged slump and the answer was always that the player was healthy. Now, the optics look bad as the player heads to the IL instead of trying to fix his approach at Triple-A. Baseball is a game unlike many other major sports because there is less contact, and the season is stretched over 162 games. In every sport, the culture of playing through injuries has been lauded for decades. Old-school managers like to throw around the phrase “rub some dirt on it” and send the player back out there to suffer through an ailment while providing the team with poor performance. Minnesota saw some of this last season with Carlos Correa as he dealt with a plantar fasciitis injury that caused him to have the worst season of his career. He was playing poorly, but the Twins knew about the injury, and there was a conscious decision to continue playing him regularly. It’s unclear when Kirilloff’s back began bothering him, but his offensive performance took a significant downturn at the beginning of May. Over the last 31 games, he went 11-for-77 (.143 BA) with six extra-base hits and a 27-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Some of his home runs came in critical spots for the team, so his WPA was positive during this stretch. However, a batting average below .150 is unsustainable for a corner outfielder. He was becoming unusable to the line-up, and hiding an injury was hurting himself and the team. In recent memory, Kirilloff isn’t the only young player to hide an injury from the Twins. Last season, Joe Ryan took the mound in Atlanta after tweaking his groin muscle during warm-ups. He tried to pitch through the injury, but the Braves teed off on him for six earned runs on nine hits in three innings. Instead of telling the team about the injury, he continued to pitch in the coming weeks, but the results continued to be poor. In a seven-game stretch, he posted an 8.63 ERA, with opponents posting a 1.137 OPS with 17 home runs. Ryan was worth a -1.12 WPA before telling the team his groin was bothering him. Minnesota was in the heart of a pennant race, and there’s no question that Ryan’s performance hurt the team’s chances of winning. Baseball is a game that takes pride in its storied history, but it also means that it takes generations for meaningful change to impact the game. Kirilloff and Ryan's decision to hide injuries from the Twins is part of a deeper baseball culture that needs to be remedied throughout an organization. Players shouldn’t sit out every time they have a bump or bruise, but players need to disclose injuries to their team to avoid prolonged slumps that can cost the team significant wins. No player will have a Cal Ripken Jr. streak of consecutive games played in the modern game. Players must make a concerted effort to seek medical attention even if they feel like it is a minor issue. There needs to be a culture shift from the “rub some dirt on it” days to a clubhouse doing what is best for the team. How can the Twins foster this culture change in their players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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Wrote a little bit about him in a story this morning
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The Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in late 2016, to overhaul the baseball operations department. Over the last seven years, there have been a bevy of good and bad draft picks, a trend that would be true for any front office. Baseball’s draft differs from that of other major sports leagues, because there is rarely an immediate impact at the highest level. It takes time and patience as players develop in a team’s farm system. We're now deep enough into the Falvey-Levine regime, though, to do some close study of their picks and the resulting impact. The MLB Draft is a pivotal event for every team, offering a chance to secure future stars and bolster organizational depth. Recent drafts for the Twins have yielded some promising, esciting talent, but also included selections that fell far short of expectations. Since 2017, the Twins have made several picks that, in hindsight, did not pan out as hoped, impacting the team's roster and organizational depth. 5. RHP Matt Canterino 2019 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (54th Overall) Canterino hasn’t pitched a professional inning since 2022 and began the 2024 season on the injured list with a right subscapularis strain. He missed all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he had in August 2022. The Twins felt comfortable enough in his progress to add him to the 40-man roster entering the 2023 season, and the team has yet to drop him, even with his injury struggles. Canterino has put up video game numbers when he is healthy (1.91 ERA, 13.8 K/9), so he must get healthy to provide value in the high minors. 4. RHP Landon Leach 2017 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (37th Overall) Leach might be an unfamiliar name to Twins fans. He was in the first draft class under the current regime and topped out at Low-A in the Twins organization. His time with the Twins was limited to 24 appearances due to injuries, and the Twins released him after the 2021 campaign. He posted a 4.39 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. Leach signed with the Braves organization for the 2022 season and made 17 appearances before electing free agency. Out of the players on this list, he is the only one out of baseball, and he never pitched above High-A. 3. RHP Connor Prielipp 2022 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (48th Overall) Any drafting process has risk and reward, and the Twins knew they were making a risky selection with Prielipp. During his sophomore season, he was viewed as a potential top-10 pick in the MLB Draft, but he dropped to the second round after having Tommy John surgery while at the University of Alabama. His time in the Twins organization has been limited to two appearances, as he underwent a second UCL surgery last summer. When healthy, he has a fastball-slider combination that wowed talent evaluators and the Twins front office. He still has a chance to impact the big-league roster, but arm concerns have followed him since he was an amateur. 2. 1B Aaron Sabato 2020 MLB Draft: 1st Round Pick (27th Overall) The 2020 MLB Draft was unique, because the pandemic shut down high school and college seasons. Looking back, the first round of this draft has been a mess, as teams struggled to identify potential talent. Three of the top six picks have negative WAR at the big-league level, with the No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, accounting for -1.7. Many evaluators viewed Sabato as a stretch as a first-round pick, because he was projected to provide little defensive value. He would need to produce big power numbers in the minors to live up to his first-round billing. In four professional seasons, he has posted a .776 OPS, while striking out more than 30% of the time. There have been flashes of his prestigious power but insufficient contact to be considered a top prospect. 1. SS Keoni Cavaco 2019 MLB Draft: 1st Round Pick (13th Overall) Cavaco was a unique player heading into the 2019 MLB Draft, because he was a late bloomer. He hadn’t been featured on many of the summer showcase circuits leading into his senior season, which gave teams less opportunity to see him against top competition. Some viewed him as a potential five-tool talent, but he has failed to showcase those skills since signing with the Twins. He has slid down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to third base and now to first. Offensively, he hit .212/.267/.335 with little power and a high strikeout rate across parts of five seasons. The Twins released him Monday, imperiling his future in affiliated baseball and sealing his status as the biggest disappointment of the current regime's Draft record. Picking Cavaco also feels especially egregious, because of the players taken shortly after him. Bryson Stott (7.1 WAR), Corbin Carroll (7.0 WAR), and George Kirby (6.4 WAR) were taken in the next seven picks. Second-guessing a draft pick is common among fans, but it's tough to see these solid MLB regulars thriving, as Cavaco departs the organization. The Minnesota Twins' draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations. From top picks like Cavaco and Sabato to promising pitchers like Canterino and Prielipp, the Twins have encountered challenges developing their draft talent into impactful major-league contributors. These selections illustrate the inherent risks and uncertainties of the MLB Draft, where even top prospects can face unforeseen obstacles on their path to professional success. While setbacks are inevitable in any draft process, learning from past selections can help the Twins make more informed decisions and build a stronger foundation for sustained success in the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball. Should any other players be added to the rankings? Should the order change? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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The MLB Draft offers franchises an opportunity to alter their future by selecting players who will have a long-term impact. Unfortunately, the Twins have seen some poor draft picks since the current front office took over. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Aaron Sabato) The Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in late 2016, to overhaul the baseball operations department. Over the last seven years, there have been a bevy of good and bad draft picks, a trend that would be true for any front office. Baseball’s draft differs from that of other major sports leagues, because there is rarely an immediate impact at the highest level. It takes time and patience as players develop in a team’s farm system. We're now deep enough into the Falvey-Levine regime, though, to do some close study of their picks and the resulting impact. The MLB Draft is a pivotal event for every team, offering a chance to secure future stars and bolster organizational depth. Recent drafts for the Twins have yielded some promising, esciting talent, but also included selections that fell far short of expectations. Since 2017, the Twins have made several picks that, in hindsight, did not pan out as hoped, impacting the team's roster and organizational depth. 5. RHP Matt Canterino 2019 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (54th Overall) Canterino hasn’t pitched a professional inning since 2022 and began the 2024 season on the injured list with a right subscapularis strain. He missed all of the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he had in August 2022. The Twins felt comfortable enough in his progress to add him to the 40-man roster entering the 2023 season, and the team has yet to drop him, even with his injury struggles. Canterino has put up video game numbers when he is healthy (1.91 ERA, 13.8 K/9), so he must get healthy to provide value in the high minors. 4. RHP Landon Leach 2017 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (37th Overall) Leach might be an unfamiliar name to Twins fans. He was in the first draft class under the current regime and topped out at Low-A in the Twins organization. His time with the Twins was limited to 24 appearances due to injuries, and the Twins released him after the 2021 campaign. He posted a 4.39 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP in 69 2/3 innings. Leach signed with the Braves organization for the 2022 season and made 17 appearances before electing free agency. Out of the players on this list, he is the only one out of baseball, and he never pitched above High-A. 3. RHP Connor Prielipp 2022 MLB Draft: 2nd Round Pick (48th Overall) Any drafting process has risk and reward, and the Twins knew they were making a risky selection with Prielipp. During his sophomore season, he was viewed as a potential top-10 pick in the MLB Draft, but he dropped to the second round after having Tommy John surgery while at the University of Alabama. His time in the Twins organization has been limited to two appearances, as he underwent a second UCL surgery last summer. When healthy, he has a fastball-slider combination that wowed talent evaluators and the Twins front office. He still has a chance to impact the big-league roster, but arm concerns have followed him since he was an amateur. 2. 1B Aaron Sabato 2020 MLB Draft: 1st Round Pick (27th Overall) The 2020 MLB Draft was unique, because the pandemic shut down high school and college seasons. Looking back, the first round of this draft has been a mess, as teams struggled to identify potential talent. Three of the top six picks have negative WAR at the big-league level, with the No. 1 overall pick, Spencer Torkelson, accounting for -1.7. Many evaluators viewed Sabato as a stretch as a first-round pick, because he was projected to provide little defensive value. He would need to produce big power numbers in the minors to live up to his first-round billing. In four professional seasons, he has posted a .776 OPS, while striking out more than 30% of the time. There have been flashes of his prestigious power but insufficient contact to be considered a top prospect. 1. SS Keoni Cavaco 2019 MLB Draft: 1st Round Pick (13th Overall) Cavaco was a unique player heading into the 2019 MLB Draft, because he was a late bloomer. He hadn’t been featured on many of the summer showcase circuits leading into his senior season, which gave teams less opportunity to see him against top competition. Some viewed him as a potential five-tool talent, but he has failed to showcase those skills since signing with the Twins. He has slid down the defensive spectrum from shortstop to third base and now to first. Offensively, he hit .212/.267/.335 with little power and a high strikeout rate across parts of five seasons. The Twins released him Monday, imperiling his future in affiliated baseball and sealing his status as the biggest disappointment of the current regime's Draft record. Picking Cavaco also feels especially egregious, because of the players taken shortly after him. Bryson Stott (7.1 WAR), Corbin Carroll (7.0 WAR), and George Kirby (6.4 WAR) were taken in the next seven picks. Second-guessing a draft pick is common among fans, but it's tough to see these solid MLB regulars thriving, as Cavaco departs the organization. The Minnesota Twins' draft history since 2017 includes several selections that have yet to live up to expectations. From top picks like Cavaco and Sabato to promising pitchers like Canterino and Prielipp, the Twins have encountered challenges developing their draft talent into impactful major-league contributors. These selections illustrate the inherent risks and uncertainties of the MLB Draft, where even top prospects can face unforeseen obstacles on their path to professional success. While setbacks are inevitable in any draft process, learning from past selections can help the Twins make more informed decisions and build a stronger foundation for sustained success in the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball. Should any other players be added to the rankings? Should the order change? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article
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MLB’s trade deadline has taken on a different vibe in recent years, with more playoff spots in both leagues resulting in more teams being in contention. According to FanGraphs’s updated playoff odds, fourteen teams have at least a 30% chance of making the playoffs, with 11 teams having better odds than 50%. One way to increase those odds is to fill holes at the trade deadline, and the Twins will have that opportunity in the coming weeks. Let’s look at the questions facing the front office as they decide on an appropriate trade deadline approach. Are the Twins buyers or sellers? Minnesota entered play this weekend with over a 60% chance to make the playoffs and a 22.2% chance of winning the AL Central. Projection models view the team as a playoff contender, even with the team’s up-and-down first half of the season. In baseball, the key is to make the playoffs, because that is when anything can happen--as fans remember with the 1987 and 1991 World Series teams. Playoff baseball can be very inconsistent, with the best regular season team rarely winning the World Series. The Texas Rangers stumbled into the playoffs last season and got hot enough to win the title. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games in 2022 and failed to make it out of the divisional round. Atlanta had the fifth-best record in the NL during the 2021 season and bunched together wins when it mattered the most. The Twins have flaws; the trade deadline allows the team to be buyers and fill those holes. Does the team need to add a playoff-caliber starter? Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have been the team’s top-performing starters this season, but it is yet to be seen if the team will trust them in October. Ryan performed well in the first half last season, before a groin injury significantly impacted his performance. The Twins didn’t trust him to start a playoff game until it was completely necessary, and even then, he was only allowed to go through the lineup once. Woods Richardson has shown plenty of positive signs this season and is on an upward trend, but the prospect of relying on a 23-year-old rookie in October can give a team pause. Pablo López needs to return to his previous form to be ready for the playoffs, though his peripheral numbers point to him being better than he has been in 2024. López fits into a group of starters for whom the front office has traded in recent years while preferring that the players have multiple years of team control. Front-line pitching comes at a high cost, so the front office must balance the current and future value of all players involved in a deal. Where does the lineup need to be upgraded? The Twins have three positions that have seen below-average production this season: second base, designated hitter, and first base. Edouard Julien, the team’s primary second baseman, posted a 95 OPS+ before being demoted to Triple-A in May. Minnesota has turned the position over to Willi Castro, with top prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin as options for the second half. Royce Lewis recently returned from the injured list, and his addition has helped multiple spots in the lineup. He pushes José Miranda to first base and/or DH, while Lewis will need time at DH, too. Minnesota can target some of the best available bats to slide into first base, designated hitter, or a corner outfield spot. Pete Alonso is a name that will garner plenty of interest at the trade deadline since he is a pending free agent. The Twins and Mets might have a unique way to match up on a trade agreement. Some other potential bats that could be available include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Christian Walker, Josh Bell, and J.D. Martinez. The Twins aren’t going to overspend on a rental player, but their need should be easy to fill with the available options. What needs are there in the bullpen? Minnesota used a unique strategy last season when preparing the bullpen for October. Instead of overspending on expensive relievers via trade, the team focused on internal options to join the bullpen. Louie Varland shifted from starter to reliever, and Chris Paddack joined the bullpen after returning from Tommy John surgery. It was a strategy that worked well (in a small sample size). Teams need multiple high-leverage relief options in October, and the Twins could always use an upgrade. Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax are locked into late-inning roles, and the team hopes Brock Stewart can join them in the second half. Varland is an option to switch back to a bullpen role, where he looked dominant last season. Caleb Thielbar has been a mess, but nothing is stopping him from making adjustments in the weeks ahead. Over the next month, the team can decide their level of trust in Steven Okert, Jorge Alcalá, and Cole Sands. There are questions with the team’s bullpen, but adding to this group shouldn’t be a priority at the trade deadline. What prospects can the team trade? The Twins’ front office must surrender prospect capital to acquire top trade targets, and there are clear prospect tiers for the organization. Players like Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee are considered untouchable in potential deals. Other names, like Emmanuel Rodríguez and David Festa, are likely only available in blockbuster deals. Some prospects have seen their stock rise this season, which is the type of player other organizations target. If the team follows the trend from recent trades, Luke Keaschall, Brandon Winokur, and Zebby Matthews might have their names connected to trade rumors. During the 2023 season, the Twins decided to stand pat and not make any moves before the trade deadline. There were places on the roster that could have been upgraded, and the front office made calls on deals, but nothing came to fruition. It seems likely that the team will follow a similar plan of attack this season. If a deal develops, the club will pursue it, but it doesn’t seem likely that the front office will go all-in on the 2024 campaign. How will the Twins’ front office answer these questions? Are there any other questions to add to the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline is at the end of July, which means teams are self-evaluating to decide the proper next steps. Here are five questions the Twins must answer over the next month. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports MLB’s trade deadline has taken on a different vibe in recent years, with more playoff spots in both leagues resulting in more teams being in contention. According to FanGraphs’ updated playoff odds, fourteen teams have over a 30% chance of making the playoffs, with 11 teams having better odds than 50%. One way to increase those odds is to fill holes at the trade deadline, and the Twins will have that opportunity in the coming weeks. Let’s look at the questions facing the front office as they decide on an appropriate trade deadline approach. Are the Twins buyers or sellers? Minnesota entered play this weekend with over a 60% chance to make the playoffs and a 22.2% chance of winning the AL Central. Projection models clearly view the team as a playoff contender even with the team’s up-and-down first half of the season. In baseball, the key is to make the playoffs because that is when anything can happen, as fans remember with the 1987 and 1991 World Series teams. Playoff baseball can be very inconsistent, with the best regular season team rarely winning the World Series. The Texas Rangers stumbled into the playoffs last season and got hot enough to win the title. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games in 2022 and failed to make it out of the divisional round. Atlanta had the fifth-best record in the NL during the 2021 season and bunched together wins when it mattered the most. The Twins have flaws; the trade deadline allows the team to be buyers and fill those holes. Does the team need to add a playoff-caliber starter? Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have been the team’s top-performing starters this season, but it is yet to be seen if the team will trust them in October. Ryan performed well in the first half last season before a groin injury significantly impacted his performance. The Twins didn’t trust him to start a playoff game until it was completely necessary, and even then, he was only allowed to go through the lineup once. Wood Richardson has shown plenty of positive signs this season and is on an upward trend, but relying on a 23-year-old rookie in October can make a team pause. Pablo López needs to return to his previous form to be ready for the playoffs, and his peripheral numbers point to him being better than he has been in 2024. López fits into a group of starters that the front office has traded for in recent years while preferring that the players have multiple years of team control. Front-line pitching comes at a high cost, so the front office must balance the current and future value of all players involved in a deal. Where does the lineup need to be upgraded? The Twins have three positions that have seen below-average production this season, including second base, designated hitter, and first base. Edouard Julien, the team’s primary second baseman, posted a 95 OPS+ before being demoted to Triple-A earlier this month. Minnesota has turned the position over to Willi Castro, with top prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin as options for the second half. Royce Lewis recently returned from the injured list, and his addition has helped multiple spots in the lineup. He pushes Jose Miranda to first base and/or DH, while Lewis will need time at DH, too. Minnesota can target some of the best available bats to slide into first base, designated hitter, or a corner outfield spot. Pete Alonso is a name that will garner plenty of interest at the trade deadline since he is a pending free agent. The Twins and Mets might have a unique way to match up on a trade agreement. Some other potential bats that could be available include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Christian Walker, Josh Bell, and J.D. Martinez. The Twins aren’t going to overspend on a rental player, but their need should be easy to fill with the available options. What needs are there in the bullpen? Minnesota used a unique strategy last season when preparing the bullpen for October. Instead of overspending on expensive trade deadline relievers, the team focused on internal options to join the bullpen. Louie Varland shifted from starter to reliever, and Chris Paddack joined the bullpen after returning from Tommy John's surgery. It was a strategy that worked well in a small sample size at the end of the year. Teams need multiple high-leverage relief options in October, and the Twins could always use an upgrade. Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax are locked into late-inning roles, and the team hopes Brock Stewart can join them in the second half. Varland is an option to switch back to a bullpen role, where he looked dominant last season. Caleb Thielbar has been a mess, but nothing is stopping him from making adjustments in the weeks ahead. Over the next month, the team can decide their level of trust in Steven Okert, Jorge Alcalá, and Cole Sands. There are questions with the team’s bullpen, but adding to this group shouldn’t be a priority at the trade deadline. What prospects can the team trade? The Twins’ front office must surrender prospect capital to acquire top trade targets, and there are clear prospect tiers for the organization. Players like Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee are considered untouchable in potential deals. Other names like Emmanuel Rodríguez and David Festa are likely only available in blockbuster deals. Some prospects have seen their stock rise this season, which is the type of player other organizations target. If the team follows the trend from recent trades, Luke Keaschall, Brandon Winokur, and Zebby Matthews might have their names connected to trade rumors. During the 2023 season, the Twins decided to stand pat and not make any moves before the trade deadline. There were places on the roster that could have been upgraded, and the front office made calls on deals, but nothing came to fruition. It seems likely that the team will follow a similar plan of attack this season. If a deal develops, the club will pursue it, but it doesn’t seem likely that the front office will go all in on the 2024 campaign. How will the Twins’ front office answer these questions? Are there any other questions to add to the list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Revisiting the Minnesota Twins' Choice: Royce Lewis and the 2017 MLB Draft
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
The MLB Draft is an intricate combination of talent evaluation with high stakes that are only magnified when a team has the number one overall pick. In 2017, the Minnesota Twins transitioned to a new front office and were tasked with identifying the best player at the top of the draft. Their choice? Royce Lewis, a dynamic shortstop from JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, California. Three years into his big-league career, it's time to dissect the Twins' decision and assess whether they made the right call amidst the talented pool of prospects available. Lewis wasn’t the consensus pick at the top of the 2017 MLB Draft. MLB.com’s experts, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis thought the Twins would select Louisville two-way phenom Brendan McKay with the top pick. John Manuel from Baseball America projected the Twins to pick Kyle Wright, the top college pitching prospect from Vanderbilt. ESPN’s Keith Law also had the Twins leaning toward Wright with a caveat that the team was looking at four players, including McKay, and high school pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Hunter Greene. There was a talented group of players for the Twins to pick from, but Lewis wasn’t projected to be the first pick. Lewis became the top pick because he possessed a compelling blend of tools and intangibles that scouts drool over. His athleticism was evident, with blazing speed, smooth fielding, and a compact swing that pointed to future power potential. Moreover, his makeup and work ethic were lauded, suggesting a player with the drive to maximize his abilities. His positive attitude has been front-and-center throughout his time with the Twins, even when facing setbacks. Lewis was projected as a five-tool player, a rare commodity in baseball, and a potential franchise cornerstone. Fast-forward to the present, Lewis progressed steadily through the Twins' minor league system while ranking as a consensus top-100 prospect. The top three national prospect rankings all had Lewis in their top 10 overall prospects entering the 2019 season. He fluctuated from there but was a top-50 prospect as he entered his rookie season. However, it's important to acknowledge his hurdles, including injuries and periods of inconsistency, which have tempered some of the initial hype. Lewis has been electric in his time at the big-league level while impacting the game on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL twice over the last three seasons, significantly hampering his ability to impact the lineup. In 79 career games, he has hit .314/.367/.589 (.956) with a 162 OPS+, 13 doubles, and 22 home runs. His 22 home runs are two more than any other player in Twins/Senators history in his first 80 games. He set the Twins' single-season record with four grand slams in 2023 and helped the club win their first playoff series in two decades. More and more Lewis jerseys are popping up at Target Field as he quickly becomes the face of the franchise. However, the Twins' decision is accurately measured not just by Lewis's performance but also by the other players the club passed over. Looking at the players selected after Lewis in the first round offers a comparative lens through which to evaluate their choice. One notable name drafted immediately after Lewis was Greene, a right-handed pitcher selected by the Cincinnati Reds. Greene dazzled scouts with his electric fastball that touched triple digits and polished secondary offerings. However, injuries have hampered his development, underscoring the inherent risk in investing in high school pitchers. Greene has collected the second most rWAR (5.2) among 2017 first-round picks, trailing only Boston’s Tanner Houck (8.7 rWAR), who was never considered for the top pick. While Greene's potential remains tantalizing, his path has been fraught with uncertainty, a reminder of the pitfalls of the draft. Another intriguing prospect in the first round was McKay, a two-way player drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays. McKay boasted exceptional skills on the mound and at the plate, a rarity in modern baseball outside Shohei Ohtani. Like Greene, McKay's journey has been hindered by injuries, raising questions about the feasibility of excelling in both roles at the highest level. He has been limited to just 13 career major league appearances and is currently on the injured list in the minor leagues with a flexor/pronator strain and an accompanying UCL sprain. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Clearly, the Twins were correct in passing over McKay. Among other notable selections were Gore (San Diego Padres), a left-handed pitcher heralded for his advanced repertoire and polish, and Wright (Atlanta Braves), another promising arm with a potent fastball and promising secondary offerings. Both players have been traded from the team that drafted them. Gore has made 56 big-league appearances with the Padres and Nationals while posting a 4.20 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 25.7 K%. Wright led all of baseball with 21 wins in 2022 and finished in the top-10 for the NL Cy Young. Outside of that season, his big-league time has been limited, including missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. In hindsight, the Twins' decision to draft Lewis appears more than justified, especially if he can overcome his lengthy injury history. While Lewis hasn't fully reached the lofty heights envisioned for a number one overall pick, his potential remains tantalizing. The challenges he's faced are not uncommon for young prospects navigating the development pathway associated with big-league players. Moreover, the risks associated with drafting pitchers, as exemplified by the experiences outlined above, underscore the reasons why teams prefer to select a position player with Lewis's skill set. However, it's essential to acknowledge that the true verdict on the Twins' decision is still pending. Baseball is a game of patience and uncertainty, and the journey from draft day to stardom is fraught with twists and turns. As Royce Lewis continues his development and the players drafted alongside him carve out their paths, only time will tell whether the Twins made the correct pick. But for now, Lewis's promise and potential offer hope to a franchise and fanbase. Was Lewis the correct choice? Should the Twins have drafted one of the top available pitchers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.- 19 comments
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It’s been seven years since the Twins took Royce Lewis with the number one overall pick. Let’s look back at the 2017 MLB Draft to see if Minnesota’s front office made the correct choice. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports The MLB Draft is an intricate combination of talent evaluation with high stakes that are only magnified when a team has the number one overall pick. In 2017, the Minnesota Twins transitioned to a new front office and were tasked with identifying the best player at the top of the draft. Their choice? Royce Lewis, a dynamic shortstop from JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, California. Three years into his big-league career, it's time to dissect the Twins' decision and assess whether they made the right call amidst the talented pool of prospects available. Lewis wasn’t the consensus pick at the top of the 2017 MLB Draft. MLB.com’s experts, Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis thought the Twins would select Louisville two-way phenom Brendan McKay with the top pick. John Manuel from Baseball America projected the Twins to pick Kyle Wright, the top college pitching prospect from Vanderbilt. ESPN’s Keith Law also had the Twins leaning toward Wright with a caveat that the team was looking at four players, including McKay, and high school pitchers MacKenzie Gore and Hunter Greene. There was a talented group of players for the Twins to pick from, but Lewis wasn’t projected to be the first pick. Lewis became the top pick because he possessed a compelling blend of tools and intangibles that scouts drool over. His athleticism was evident, with blazing speed, smooth fielding, and a compact swing that pointed to future power potential. Moreover, his makeup and work ethic were lauded, suggesting a player with the drive to maximize his abilities. His positive attitude has been front-and-center throughout his time with the Twins, even when facing setbacks. Lewis was projected as a five-tool player, a rare commodity in baseball, and a potential franchise cornerstone. Fast-forward to the present, Lewis progressed steadily through the Twins' minor league system while ranking as a consensus top-100 prospect. The top three national prospect rankings all had Lewis in their top 10 overall prospects entering the 2019 season. He fluctuated from there but was a top-50 prospect as he entered his rookie season. However, it's important to acknowledge his hurdles, including injuries and periods of inconsistency, which have tempered some of the initial hype. Lewis has been electric in his time at the big-league level while impacting the game on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL twice over the last three seasons, significantly hampering his ability to impact the lineup. In 79 career games, he has hit .314/.367/.589 (.956) with a 162 OPS+, 13 doubles, and 22 home runs. His 22 home runs are two more than any other player in Twins/Senators history in his first 80 games. He set the Twins' single-season record with four grand slams in 2023 and helped the club win their first playoff series in two decades. More and more Lewis jerseys are popping up at Target Field as he quickly becomes the face of the franchise. However, the Twins' decision is accurately measured not just by Lewis's performance but also by the other players the club passed over. Looking at the players selected after Lewis in the first round offers a comparative lens through which to evaluate their choice. One notable name drafted immediately after Lewis was Greene, a right-handed pitcher selected by the Cincinnati Reds. Greene dazzled scouts with his electric fastball that touched triple digits and polished secondary offerings. However, injuries have hampered his development, underscoring the inherent risk in investing in high school pitchers. Greene has collected the second most rWAR (5.2) among 2017 first-round picks, trailing only Boston’s Tanner Houck (8.7 rWAR), who was never considered for the top pick. While Greene's potential remains tantalizing, his path has been fraught with uncertainty, a reminder of the pitfalls of the draft. Another intriguing prospect in the first round was McKay, a two-way player drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays. McKay boasted exceptional skills on the mound and at the plate, a rarity in modern baseball outside Shohei Ohtani. Like Greene, McKay's journey has been hindered by injuries, raising questions about the feasibility of excelling in both roles at the highest level. He has been limited to just 13 career major league appearances and is currently on the injured list in the minor leagues with a flexor/pronator strain and an accompanying UCL sprain. He’s already had Tommy John surgery and surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Clearly, the Twins were correct in passing over McKay. Among other notable selections were Gore (San Diego Padres), a left-handed pitcher heralded for his advanced repertoire and polish, and Wright (Atlanta Braves), another promising arm with a potent fastball and promising secondary offerings. Both players have been traded from the team that drafted them. Gore has made 56 big-league appearances with the Padres and Nationals while posting a 4.20 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a 25.7 K%. Wright led all of baseball with 21 wins in 2022 and finished in the top-10 for the NL Cy Young. Outside of that season, his big-league time has been limited, including missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. In hindsight, the Twins' decision to draft Lewis appears more than justified, especially if he can overcome his lengthy injury history. While Lewis hasn't fully reached the lofty heights envisioned for a number one overall pick, his potential remains tantalizing. The challenges he's faced are not uncommon for young prospects navigating the development pathway associated with big-league players. Moreover, the risks associated with drafting pitchers, as exemplified by the experiences outlined above, underscore the reasons why teams prefer to select a position player with Lewis's skill set. However, it's essential to acknowledge that the true verdict on the Twins' decision is still pending. Baseball is a game of patience and uncertainty, and the journey from draft day to stardom is fraught with twists and turns. As Royce Lewis continues his development and the players drafted alongside him carve out their paths, only time will tell whether the Twins made the correct pick. But for now, Lewis's promise and potential offer hope to a franchise and fanbase. Was Lewis the correct choice? Should the Twins have drafted one of the top available pitchers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article
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The Twins' starting rotation has failed to live up to preseason projections. However, Simeon Woods Richardson’s upgraded pitch mix has made up for a few disappointing developments. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports Simeon Woods Richardson finished the 2023 campaign at a low point. He pitched most of the season at Triple-A, posting a 4.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 19.3% strikeout rate. His mechanics were out of whack, to the point where his fastball struggled to crack 90 mph. Woods Richardson saw his prospect stock drop significantly, and something needed to change to get his career back on track. Otherwise, he would never be a usable pitcher at the big-league level. In the offseason, Minnesota's coaches collaborated with Woods Richardson to tweak his delivery, including a subtle adjustment to lower his arm slot. "It was from both parties," Woods Richardson told Twins Daily's John Bonnes at spring training. "I wanted to change for the better, and why not? And they said, 'OK, let's sit down. Let's talk about this.' And we came up with a couple of things, working on mechanical stuff. Let's see if we can drop the slot a little bit and see where it goes." This seemingly minor tweak brought him closer to where he was when he joined the Twins organization, and it's a more natural and athletic position for the pitcher. So, how has that switch helped his pitch mix through his first 10 starts? His four-seam fastball averages 93.1 mph this season, up nearly three miles per hour compared to his big-league starts last season. In his last appearance, Woods Richardson topped 97 mph for the first time in his career, and his average spin rate has increased from 2,109 in 2023 to 2,211 this season. Opponents have posted a .306 SLG versus his fastball, with a 19.3 Whiff% and a 16.5 Put Away%. His fastball will continue to be a weapon, given his newfound velocity and lower arm slot. His fastball isn’t the only pitch that has changed for Woods Richardson in 2024, though, and many of his other pitches are getting better results because of his velocity increase. His slider jumped from 83.1 mph last season to 86.7 mph in 2024, with a 23.6 Whiff%. Woods Richardson is using his slider more regularly this season (up 16.2% from 2023), and he’s held batters to a .202 xBA and a .253 xSLG. His changeup remains a work in progress, but having some horizontal separation between the fastball and his two breaking balls has made a world of difference. Here's how his pitches moved in 2023, including the extraordinary amount of cut on his fastball. Here's the 2024 data, with the switch from an overhand to a high three-quarters slot effecting a different movement relationship between his offerings, in addition to the increased effectiveness stemming from throwing harder. No matter the pitch, he’s seeing remarkable improvement compared to last season, and continues to put zeros on the scoreboard. Woods Richardson’s improved performance is catching the eye of the team’s coaches. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is running out of adjectives, because he has called him phenomenal after multiple starts. “Sim was phenomenal,” Baldelli told reporters after his young righty’s most recent start. “I thought he was on top of his game. He went out there and just put up zero after zero. And he makes you want to keep him out there. Even later in the game, his stuff held really well. That’s a winning start. That’s a start you want to get every time.” It’s hard to imagine where the Twins’ rotation would be without Woods Richardson. Pablo López hasn’t pitched like the ace he was expected to be, with a 5.45 ERA and -0.2 WAR. Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have provided mixed results, varying from outstanding to nearly unplayable. Louie Varland pitched five shutout innings in a spot start against the Rockies this week, but was terrible to begin the year; the team was forced to demote him to Triple-A. If Woods Richardson struggled, the Twins likely would have to turn a rotation spot over to a veteran Triple-A pitcher or rush a prospect like David Festa to the big leagues. Not everything has gone right for the Twins this season, but Woods Richardson’s emergence has saved the team in the first half. What stands out about Woods Richardson’s upgraded pitch mix? What is his ceiling? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article
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Simeon Woods Richardson finished the 2023 campaign at a low point. He pitched most of the season at Triple-A, posting a 4.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 19.3% strikeout rate. His mechanics were out of whack, to the point where his fastball struggled to crack 90 mph. Woods Richardson saw his prospect stock drop significantly, and something needed to change to get his career back on track. Otherwise, he would never be a usable pitcher at the big-league level. In the offseason, Minnesota's coaches collaborated with Woods Richardson to tweak his delivery, including a subtle adjustment to lower his arm slot. "It was from both parties," Woods Richardson told Twins Daily's John Bonnes at spring training. "I wanted to change for the better, and why not? And they said, 'OK, let's sit down. Let's talk about this.' And we came up with a couple of things, working on mechanical stuff. Let's see if we can drop the slot a little bit and see where it goes." This seemingly minor tweak brought him closer to where he was when he joined the Twins organization, and it's a more natural and athletic position for the pitcher. So, how has that switch helped his pitch mix through his first 10 starts? His four-seam fastball averages 93.1 mph this season, up nearly three miles per hour compared to his big-league starts last season. In his last appearance, Woods Richardson topped 97 mph for the first time in his career, and his average spin rate has increased from 2,109 in 2023 to 2,211 this season. Opponents have posted a .306 SLG versus his fastball, with a 19.3 Whiff% and a 16.5 Put Away%. His fastball will continue to be a weapon, given his newfound velocity and lower arm slot. His fastball isn’t the only pitch that has changed for Woods Richardson in 2024, though, and many of his other pitches are getting better results because of his velocity increase. His slider jumped from 83.1 mph last season to 86.7 mph in 2024, with a 23.6 Whiff%. Woods Richardson is using his slider more regularly this season (up 16.2% from 2023), and he’s held batters to a .202 xBA and a .253 xSLG. His changeup remains a work in progress, but having some horizontal separation between the fastball and his two breaking balls has made a world of difference. Here's how his pitches moved in 2023, including the extraordinary amount of cut on his fastball. Here's the 2024 data, with the switch from an overhand to a high three-quarters slot effecting a different movement relationship between his offerings, in addition to the increased effectiveness stemming from throwing harder. No matter the pitch, he’s seeing remarkable improvement compared to last season, and continues to put zeros on the scoreboard. Woods Richardson’s improved performance is catching the eye of the team’s coaches. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli is running out of adjectives, because he has called him phenomenal after multiple starts. “Sim was phenomenal,” Baldelli told reporters after his young righty’s most recent start. “I thought he was on top of his game. He went out there and just put up zero after zero. And he makes you want to keep him out there. Even later in the game, his stuff held really well. That’s a winning start. That’s a start you want to get every time.” It’s hard to imagine where the Twins’ rotation would be without Woods Richardson. Pablo López hasn’t pitched like the ace he was expected to be, with a 5.45 ERA and -0.2 WAR. Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack have provided mixed results, varying from outstanding to nearly unplayable. Louie Varland pitched five shutout innings in a spot start against the Rockies this week, but was terrible to begin the year; the team was forced to demote him to Triple-A. If Woods Richardson struggled, the Twins likely would have to turn a rotation spot over to a veteran Triple-A pitcher or rush a prospect like David Festa to the big leagues. Not everything has gone right for the Twins this season, but Woods Richardson’s emergence has saved the team in the first half. What stands out about Woods Richardson’s upgraded pitch mix? What is his ceiling? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
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4 More Triple-A Hitters Who Could Upgrade the Twins' Offense
Cody Christie posted an article in Minor Leagues
The Twins offense has been hit-or-miss for much of the season. Minnesota got out of the gate slowly, averaging fewer than four runs per game in the season’s early weeks. The team got hot from there and averaged over 6.5 runs per game in a stretch that included their 12-game winning streak. In recent weeks, the team’s offense has returned to its early-season form, an even more disappointing proposition since Royce Lewis rejoined the lineup. It's evident the team needs a spark to get the offense back on track, so here are four names for the team to consider, in addition to Austin Martin, who's coming back up Thursday. Matt Wallner, OF Wallner was part of the team’s offensive woes to start the season, as he went 2-for-25 (.080 BA) with a 51.5 K% in 13 games. Initially, after his demotion, he continued to struggle at the plate. However, he seems to have rediscovered his stroke over the last month. In 35 games, he has posted an .859 OPS with 17 extra-base hits, including 10 home runs. He’s already on the 40-man roster, making it easy for him to replace an underperforming player. Replacement Options: Manuel Margot Brooks Lee, SS/2B Twins Daily ranks Lee as the organization’s second-best prospect, and he’s back in Triple-A after starting the year on the injured list. In recent memory, Lee has one of the best hit tools of any prospect to come through the Twins organization. He has slowly been working back into game action, so it probably isn’t an immediate solution for the Twins roster. However, Lee will be an option in the coming weeks, especially if the big-league roster continues to flounder offensively. Replacement Options: Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana Yunior Severino, INF Severino lacks the defensive flexibility of other options on this list, but he’s a big bat who can impact the lineup in multiple ways. Last season, he finished tied for the most home runs in the minor leagues, and that’s one of the reasons the Twins added him to the 40-man roster. He’s a switch-hitter whose OPS is over 100 points higher from the left side this season. His overall season totals don’t look great, because he started slowly with a .556 OPS in his first 23 games. Since the calendar flipped to May, though, he is starting to hit like the player he was last season with a .790 OPS. Replacement Options: Farmer, Santana, Margot Will Holland, UTIL Holland is 26 years old and is having his best professional season. In 29 games, he has hit .256/.404/.526, with 10 extra-base hits and a career-low 24.2 K%. Defensively, Holland has experience playing in the infield and outfield, with the majority of his innings coming at shortstop this season. Throughout his professional career, he has logged over 1,000 innings at two positions, shortstop and center field. His jump in power this season is an encouraging sign for a player who might be putting it all together. Replacement Options: Margot, Farmer DaShawn Keirsey is another name to watch for the Saints, since he leads the team in many offensive categories. Unfortunately, he suffered a calf injury at the end of last month and is on the injured list. Keirsey will be an option in the second half because of his strong offensive performance and his ability to play all three outfield positions. Some tough decisions must be made to get these players on the roster. Kirilloff got the hook to make room for Martin. However, there is little left for him to prove at Triple-A, and Martin will get the first crack at taking his place. Dropping one of the veteran players has other long-term ramifications, because it involves the team eating salary and losing roster depth. It might be time for a radical change to get the offense back on track. Will the Twins add any of these players in the coming weeks? What players do they replace on the active roster? Leave a comment and start the discussion.- 37 comments
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Are Surveyed Players Right to Call Carlos Correa Overrated?
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Sports debates have been part of water cooler and barstool discussions for generations. Who is the GOAT? Who makes your favorite team’s Mount Rushmore? Media can drive the conversation in many of these areas, for better and worse. Current players fall into similar traps as fans, with the media and significant storylines shaping their opinions. Earlier this week, The Athletic posted the results of their annual player poll, which included a look at the game’s best players, best organizations, and various other topics. One question asked on the survey had mixed results, because some players hesitated to answer. Over 100 players were interviewed, but only 59 were willing to name someone as baseball’s most overrated player. Jazz Chisholm Jr.(20.3%), Anthony Rendon (10.2%), and Carlos Correa (6.7%) were the top three finishers. Mathematically, four players voted for Correa, while Chisholm Jr. (12) and Rendon (10) received double-digit votes. Chisholm is near the top of the list, with many questioning why he was picked as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 23. Rendon finishes second, after comments earlier this year about not enjoying playing baseball. Let’s look into why Correa is featured so highly on the list, though, and discuss how he can move down the list in future years. The Face of the Cheating Scandal Correa’s final year in Houston was when reports surfaced about the Astros' elaborate sign-stealing system, which helped them win the World Series. Some Astros players stood before the media and refused to answer questions. Correa took the opposite approach, and made himself available to the media to answer the tough questions. He was part of one of baseball’s biggest scandals, but he didn’t shy away from the mistakes made by that Houston team. Correa is a very smart player and is well-spoken in media interviews. It might have helped him more to take the approach some of his teammates adopted, but he understood the long-term ramifications. Fans mercilessly booed the Astros in the aftermath of the cheating scandal being revealed. Correa and other current/former Astros are still booed at stadiums, even by some fans who likely don’t know why they are displeased with the star shortstop. Other players hear the boos, and it is hard to ignore, which is one of the big reasons he’s viewed as overrated. Free Agency Saga and Subsequent Poor Performance Another reason he is featured highly on this list is that Correa’s name was dragged through the muddied waters of free agency in back-to-back seasons. He headed to free agency after the 2021 season as one of the top players on the market. MLB owners locked out the players, and Correa was forced to wait until spring training to sign with a club. He was so frustrated with the process that he switched agents and joined Scott Boras’s growing group. Minnesota signed him to a record-breaking deal, with him fully intending to hit the open market following the 2022 campaign. Correa performed well in his first year with the Twins and hoped his second free-agent stint would improve. He agreed to massive contracts with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, but both deals collapsed because of concerns over his surgically repaired ankle. Eventually, the Twins re-signed him to a six-year, $200 million contract. Other players must have followed his free agency saga closely, and it was another knock against Correa. The first year of his new massive deal was marred by a plantar fasciitis injury that impacted him on both sides of the ball. He showed up big in October for the Twins, but other players might not pay as close of attention when their season ends. In the end, it was a small sample size of voters, and it speaks volumes that some players refused to answer this question. The prominence of Correa's mention in the subsequent article oversells the real extent to which the survey showed any resentment or doubt in his talent on the part of his counterparts throughout the league. Factors largely beyond his control (teams backing out of deals to which he had agreed and the injury-driven struggles in the first year of the deal that was finally consummated) set him up for this kind of list appearance, but it's a safe bet that just as many players (or more) quietly think of the smart, well-rounded Correa as underrated. Correa will get further away from the cheating scandal and his free agent debacle, which should remove him from the list in subsequent years. Other players behind him deserve more attention for their performance (or lack thereof). Correa can help his own narrative by performing well in the regular season and helping the Twins to win games in October. Is Correa one of baseball’s most overrated players? Who is the most overrated player on the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion,- 37 comments
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Carlos Correa has been a polarizing figure throughout his career, from Houston’s cheating scandal to his multi-offseason free agency saga. Fans and players view him through different lenses. Does that make him one of baseball's most overrated players? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Sports debates have been part of water cooler and barstool discussions for generations. Who is the GOAT? Who makes your favorite team’s Mount Rushmore? Media can drive the conversation in many of these areas, for better and worse. Current players fall into similar traps as fans, with the media and significant storylines shaping their opinions. Earlier this week, The Athletic posted the results of their annual player poll, which included a look at the game’s best players, best organizations, and various other topics. One question asked on the survey had mixed results, because some players hesitated to answer. Over 100 players were interviewed, but only 59 were willing to name someone as baseball’s most overrated player. Jazz Chisholm Jr.(20.3%), Anthony Rendon (10.2%), and Carlos Correa (6.7%) were the top three finishers. Mathematically, four players voted for Correa, while Chisholm Jr. (12) and Rendon (10) received double-digit votes. Chisholm is near the top of the list, with many questioning why he was picked as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 23. Rendon finishes second, after comments earlier this year about not enjoying playing baseball. Let’s look into why Correa is featured so highly on the list, though, and discuss how he can move down the list in future years. The Face of the Cheating Scandal Correa’s final year in Houston was when reports surfaced about the Astros' elaborate sign-stealing system, which helped them win the World Series. Some Astros players stood before the media and refused to answer questions. Correa took the opposite approach, and made himself available to the media to answer the tough questions. He was part of one of baseball’s biggest scandals, but he didn’t shy away from the mistakes made by that Houston team. Correa is a very smart player and is well-spoken in media interviews. It might have helped him more to take the approach some of his teammates adopted, but he understood the long-term ramifications. Fans mercilessly booed the Astros in the aftermath of the cheating scandal being revealed. Correa and other current/former Astros are still booed at stadiums, even by some fans who likely don’t know why they are displeased with the star shortstop. Other players hear the boos, and it is hard to ignore, which is one of the big reasons he’s viewed as overrated. Free Agency Saga and Subsequent Poor Performance Another reason he is featured highly on this list is that Correa’s name was dragged through the muddied waters of free agency in back-to-back seasons. He headed to free agency after the 2021 season as one of the top players on the market. MLB owners locked out the players, and Correa was forced to wait until spring training to sign with a club. He was so frustrated with the process that he switched agents and joined Scott Boras’s growing group. Minnesota signed him to a record-breaking deal, with him fully intending to hit the open market following the 2022 campaign. Correa performed well in his first year with the Twins and hoped his second free-agent stint would improve. He agreed to massive contracts with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets, but both deals collapsed because of concerns over his surgically repaired ankle. Eventually, the Twins re-signed him to a six-year, $200 million contract. Other players must have followed his free agency saga closely, and it was another knock against Correa. The first year of his new massive deal was marred by a plantar fasciitis injury that impacted him on both sides of the ball. He showed up big in October for the Twins, but other players might not pay as close of attention when their season ends. In the end, it was a small sample size of voters, and it speaks volumes that some players refused to answer this question. The prominence of Correa's mention in the subsequent article oversells the real extent to which the survey showed any resentment or doubt in his talent on the part of his counterparts throughout the league. Factors largely beyond his control (teams backing out of deals to which he had agreed and the injury-driven struggles in the first year of the deal that was finally consummated) set him up for this kind of list appearance, but it's a safe bet that just as many players (or more) quietly think of the smart, well-rounded Correa as underrated. Correa will get further away from the cheating scandal and his free agent debacle, which should remove him from the list in subsequent years. Other players behind him deserve more attention for their performance (or lack thereof). Correa can help his own narrative by performing well in the regular season and helping the Twins to win games in October. Is Correa one of baseball’s most overrated players? Who is the most overrated player on the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion, View full article
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