3 Reasons the Twins Should Continue to Trust Jhoan Durán

When you think of the Twins' bullpen in 2024, it's impossible not to focus on Jhoan Durán. He’s been at the center of attention since spring training when his velocity was noticeably lower. An oblique injury meant he was left off the Opening Day roster. After returning from the IL, Durán’s velocity was still lower than in previous seasons, which resulted in a decline in his performance. Durán's recent struggles, particularly in non-save situations, have caused some fans to question his reliability. Despite this, there are plenty of reasons the Twins should remain confident in Durán as a critical figure for their late-inning relief heading into the 2024 postseason and beyond.

Reason 1: FIP Pointing to Improvements
One of the most telling stats to examine when evaluating a pitcher is their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). FIP focuses on what a pitcher can control—strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs—removing the noise created by fielding and luck-based outcomes. Since the beginning of August (16 appearances), he has posted a 5.14 ERA, but a deeper look shows that his 0.68 FIP is significantly lower than his ERA. This suggests he’s been a victim of bad luck and should experience positive regression if he keeps his process intact.

Durán’s FIP in recent weeks has hovered well below his ERA, indicating that his stuff hasn’t fallen off the cliff some might suspect. His strikeout rate remains strong, with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings. Also, he's keeping the walks in check better than many of his bullpen peers, with one free pass in his last 16 appearances. A higher ERA doesn’t mean Durán has suddenly lost his edge; it means the timing of bad breaks and hits falling in tough spots have inflated his runs allowed.

Reason 2: Performance in Save Situations
Durán’s struggles in non-save situations have been well-documented this season. He’s given up big hits and crooked numbers when the game isn’t on the line, but this doesn’t necessarily mean he’s lost his touch as a closer. Non-save situations can sometimes be deceptive. Pitchers can have different mindsets; sometimes, their approach changes depending on the game context. In Durán’s case, it’s likely not a sign of diminished skill but a byproduct of being less focused or feeling less adrenaline compared to tight, save-clinching spots.

In non-save situations (19 1/3 innings), Durán has posted a 6.98 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and 9.3 K/9. When given a save opportunity, he has combined for a 2.17 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 11.2 K/9. The Twins shouldn’t overlook his struggles in non-save spots but shouldn’t overreact. Late-inning, high-leverage outs in playoff settings are where Durán’s value shines, and that’s where the focus should lie.

Reason 3: Other Underlying Metrics
Despite his decline in velocity this season, other underlying metrics point to Durán being one of baseball’s best relievers. His .304 xSLG is higher than the previous two seasons, but he still ranks in the top 5% of MLB. Also, his xwOBA, xwOBACON, and xERA are all in baseball’s top 8% in 2024. His 2.83 xERA is nearly 130 points lower than his actual ERA. He’s also made significant improvements in how regularly batters are barreling up the ball against him. Last season, batters posted a 7.0 Barrel% and a 3.9 Barrel/PA, while this year, they have accumulated a 3.9 Barrel% and a 2.5 Barrel/PA.

Durán’s season-long struggles, particularly in non-save situations, don’t take away from the fact that he’s still one of Minnesota’s best late-inning relievers. His FIP suggests that he’s due for a bounce-back, and his ability to thrive in high-leverage moments is precisely what the Twins need in October. While his ERA may have ticked up, it’s far from a reason to panic. The Twins should continue to trust Durán with the ball in crucial moments, knowing that his raw talent and track record of success outweigh the bumps in the road.

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