Cody Christie

Kyle Farmer provided critical depth for the Twins during the 2023 season. Looking ahead to next season, the Twins would be wise to put Farmer on the trading block. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports Kyle Farmer provided critical depth for the Twins during the 2023 season. Looking ahead to next season, the Twins would be wise to put Farmer on the trading block. Last winter, the Twins didn’t have a clear option at shortstop. Carlos Correa tested the free-agent waters for the second straight season, and Royce Lewis was recovering from his second ACL surgery. Minnesota needed someone to man one of baseball’s most important positions, so the club traded for Kyle Farmer. Farmer had spent the previous two seasons as a regular with the Cincinnati Reds, where he offered some defensive flexibility and occasional pop with his bat. Minnesota felt like Farmer could be a bridge player to keep shortstop warm until Lewis was ready to return. Correa’s free agency saga took many twists and turns before ending up back in Minnesota. His signing changed Farmer’s role for the 2023 campaign, but he continued to provide value. Entering the season, Farmer had an 86 OPS+ for his career, finishing the season with a career-high 97 OPS+. He missed time during the season after taking a pitch to the face that required multiple surgeries. Farmer added depth across the diamond, including playing over 200 innings at shortstop, third base, and second base. The Twins were able to use him in Baldelli's platoon system, to fill in for injured players, and he more than held his own. Overall, it was a solid 2023 season, and the Twins might have more than one reason to trade Farmer this winter. Farmer is in his final year of arbitration, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $6.6 million. To some, that might be a high salary for a bench player who doesn’t project to be in the lineup daily. For some perspective, FanGraphs has valued Famer at $11.9 million or more in each of the last three seasons, including $12.6 in 2023. Other teams will also understand his value, which might make him a hot trade commodity. There have been outstanding classes of free-agent shortstops in the last two winters. Fans might feel this is the norm, but that is far from the truth. There won’t be any names like Correa, Trea Turner, or Corey Seager on the market this winter. So, teams might look for alternative shortstop options similar to what the Twins did last winter. Farmer is under team control for a cheap one-year deal and can handle shortstop while a club waits for a younger player to take his place. The Twins also don’t need to rush into any trade involving Farmer. Last winter, the club traded Gio Urshela, and the trade return was underwhelming. Minnesota also shopped some of their corner outfield options but didn’t like the value they were getting from other clubs. It would be in the Twins’ best interest to hope for a bidding war, especially with the lackluster free-agent market. Minnesota’s infield depth chart looks relatively complete, even without Farmer. Correa should play nearly every day at shortstop, and Lewis will be next to him at the hot corner. Jorge Polanco and Edouard Julien will both see time at second base, with Julien also figuring into the first base equation. Top prospect Brooks Lee finished the season at Triple-A and should be ready for a call-up by mid-season. Farmer provided a veteran leadership to the 2023 Minnesota Twins that shouldn’t be forgotten. His time with the team would have looked very different if Correa hadn’t returned to Minnesota. Instead, the Twins might be able to cash in on his final year of team control and help the club fill a different need for next season. Should the Twins trade Farmer? What is a suitable return? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins offense struggled through different parts of the season, including the team's final two playoff games at Target Field. Jose Miranda was supposed to be a middle-of-the-order hitter in 2023, and here's how he can help the Twins next season. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins offense struggled through different parts of the season, including the team's final two playoff games at Target Field. Jose Miranda was supposed to be a middle-of-the-order hitter in 2023, and here's how he can help the Twins next season. Last week, the Twins announced that Alex Kirilloff would be undergoing surgery on his shoulder. The full extent of the injury and a recovery timeline won't be known until doctors put him under the knife. There's a chance he won't be ready for the start of the 2024 season, depending on the severity of the injury. His injury leaves the Twins looking for other first base options heading into the off-season. The Twins had multiple young players impact the roster during the 2023 campaign, but a different player was supposed to be in the middle of the order. Jose Miranda entered spring training with high expectations because of his tremendous rookie season, where he posted a 114 OPS+. The team traded away Gio Urshela to open a full-time spot at third base. However, a shoulder injury this spring slowed him down, and he played through the injury with some poor results (56 OPS+ in 40 games). Like Kirilloff, Miranda had shoulder surgery so both players will have something to prove next season. Miranda's 2023 campaign was a lost season, but there is still an opportunity for him to regain his previous form while shifting to first base. "There was a point during the season that I was going through a lot of pain," Miranda told reporters. "I was playing through a lot of pain, but I just wanted to keep playing. I was grinding. I don't know if it was the right thing, but you learn with everything that happens in your life. There were some points where I thought maybe surgery or something could have happened." In recent seasons, the Twins have struggled against left-handed pitching because many of their top batters are left-handed. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are supposed to lead the charge against southpaws, but both players saw their offensive production drop last year while dealing with injuries. Miranda might be one of the Twins' solutions to their left-handed pitching woes. His OPS for his career is nearly 140 points higher against lefty starters. Minnesota hopes Correa and Buxton return to form next season, but Miranda is another lefty-mashing option. Miranda has played nearly 80 games at first base during his big-league career with mixed results. During his rookie season, he posted a -6 DRS and a -4 OAA at first base. He had made 31 starts at first base during his minor league career after being used primarily as a third baseman. It can be challenging to adjust to a less familiar position at the big-league level, especially with the footwork involved at first base. One can hope that Miranda becomes more comfortable in the position as he gains more experience. The Twins roster also doesn't have a clear spot for a player with Miranda's skill set. Royce Lewis will likely be penciled in at third base, with Jorge Polanco at second and Edouard Julien getting time at first and second. Minnesota also needs to find playing time for Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer. Miranda has one option year remaining, so the Twins can make him prove himself at Triple-A before getting another shot at the big-league level. It's also logical for the Twins to consider trading Miranda if they feel he is superfluous on the roster. Unfortunately, his 2022 season likely means his trade value is at an all-time low. With his remaining option, it seems likely for the team to hold on to him for added depth unless another team blows them away with an offer. What role does Miranda fill on the 2024 Twins? Will the team consider trading him? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Sonny Gray was among the American League’s most valuable pitchers during the 2023 season. Here’s how the Twins can use internal options to replace his value on the 2024 roster. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray was among the American League’s most valuable pitchers during the 2023 season. Here’s how the Twins can use internal options to replace his value on the 2024 roster. Sonny Gray walked off the mound in Game 3 of the ALDS with his head down. The Twins had returned to Target Field with a chance to take the series lead. Instead, Gray allowed more home runs than any other game this season. It was a disappointing end to what was likely his last appearance for the Twins. Gray turns 34 next month, and he’s reaching free agency for the first time. The Twins will make him a qualifying offer that amounts to a one-year deal of around $20 million. He will decline the offer, and the Twins can receive draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. Gray told reporters that money isn’t the only factor in his search, but he wants to be fairly compensated. It seems unlikely for the Twins’ front office to give Gray a multi-year deal, so the focus turns to replacing him. The Twins aren’t magically going to find a starting pitcher who will produce a five WAR season. Instead, the team will need to piece together value from multiple players. Chris Paddack Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery in the season’s final weeks and showed some tremendous stuff in a bullpen role. Some pitchers can struggle with their command after arm surgery, but Paddack filled up the strike zone and utilized all his pitches, including an increased use of his changeup. He will likely have an innings limit in his first full season back from surgery, but the Twins managed Kenta Maeda well this season. Paddack won’t be in the running for the Cy Young like Gray was this season, but he should fit nicely into the middle of the rotation and add value the Twins didn’t get in 2023. Potential Value: +2.0 WAR Joe Ryan Ryan’s sophomore season was a tale of two halves. Before the All-Star Break, Ryan posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 107 innings. His second half was marred by a groin injury that he tried to pitch through with some disastrous results. In 11 starts (54 2/3 innings), he posted a 6.09 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP while surrendering 16 home runs, the same amount he allowed in the first half in half as many innings. According to rWAR, Ryan provided less value to the Twins than Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagan, and Bailey Ober. The Twins can get more value from Ryan if he can spread his first-half totals over the entire season. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR Bailey Ober Ober finished third on the team among pitchers in rWAR behind Gray and Lopez, but he left other value on the table. He started the season in St. Paul, making four starts before joining the Twins rotation. At the end of August, the Twins sent him back to Triple-A to give him time off, and he made one additional start at that level. There is no question that he would have provided more value to the Twins if those five starts came at the big-league level. Next season, there should be fewer concerns about Ober’s workload after he threw over 170 innings for the first time in his career. He deserves to be in the Twins rotation coming out of spring training, and he might have a chip on his shoulder after the way he was used this season. Potential Value: +0.5 WAR Other Options The Twins will also have other internal options to complete the back end of the rotation. Louie Varland was fantastic in his transition to the bullpen at the end of the season. Minnesota might be tempted to leave him in that role, but that likely won’t happen to start the year. He should get the chance to start and earn the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training. Despite struggling through different parts of the 2023 season, Simeon Woods Richardson is another intriguing option. He posted a 4.91 ERA at Triple-A with a 1.50 WHIP in 113 2/3 innings. Woods Richardson was nearly five years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and St. Paul has proven to be a hitter’s park. He won’t begin the year in the rotation, but he should factor into the equation later in the year. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR There is also a potential for the Twins to go out and add another starting pitcher through free agency or a trade. Many were surprised by the Twins adding Lopez last winter when the rotation seemed to have five viable options. Minnesota’s front office values depth, and the team’s younger pitchers might need more time at Triple-A. How do you think the Twins will replace Gray? Do they have enough value with their internal options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Only one team ends the year on a high note, with 29 others dealing with the agony of defeat. After a successful season, how close are the Twins to a World Series run? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Only one team ends the year on a high note, with 29 others dealing with the agony of defeat. After a successful season, how close are the Twins to a World Series run? Everything didn't go perfectly for the Twins during the 2023 season, but there were some positive signs by the season's end. The team's playoff losing streak is over, and the fanbase doesn't need to focus on losses that happened in the past. Instead, the team will turn its focus to 2024 and beyond. So, are the Twins any closer to winning a World Series title compared to one year ago? Rocco Baldelli was clear in his post-game comments that he believes the Twins are ready to take the next step. "The team is hungry in a way that I don't think we probably even were before. You get a taste of something like this, you show this to people, what this looks like and what it is. We're not that far from playing in the World Series." Rookie Trio One reason for optimism with the Twins is the young core of players that established themselves during their rookie season. Minnesota became the first club since 1930 to have three rookies with an .830 or better OPS. Royce Lewis showed why he was considered one of baseball's top prospects by hitting .309/.372/.548 (.921) with 15 home runs and seven doubles in 58 games. His offensive output continued into October, where he became the first Twins batter since Kirby Puckett to have four home runs in the same postseason. Lewis wasn't the only rookie to leave his mark on the Twins. Matt Wallner also showcased multiple strengths during the 2023 season after being named the team's Minor League Player of the Year in 2022. In 76 games, Wallner hit .249/.370/.507 (.877) with 11 doubles, one triple, and 14 home runs. He also demonstrated a tremendous outfield arm, which can limit runners advancing on the base paths. Edouard Julien completed the Twins rookie trio and hit .263/.381/.459 (.839) in 109 games. He combined for 16 doubles, one triple, and 16 home runs with a 130 OPS+. Julien's defense at second base has improved significantly during the season, improving his projected value for future years. While these players impacted the 2023 season, other prospects are even more highly touted than this trio. Prospects on the Way Brooks Lee was named the Twins' Minor League Player of the Year after reaching Triple-A in his first full professional season. He hit .275/.347/.461 (.808) with 39 doubles, three triples, and 16 home runs between Double- and Triple-A. His OPS dropped by over 100 points after his promotion, but he was over four years younger than the average age of the competition in the International League. He will be considered a top-25 global prospect entering next season. Lee isn't the only prospect to get excited about in the Twins' system. Emmanuel Rodriguez played the entire 2023 season at High-A, where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. He posted a .940 OPS or higher in four-of-six months during the season. His biggest moments came in the deciding game of the Midwest League Championship Series when he hit a grand slam that put the Kernels in front. He won't rank as highly as Lee on national lists, but he has one of the highest ceilings of any prospect. AL Central and Playoff Picture The AL Central also provides an opportunity for the Twins to make the playoffs regularly in the coming years. Both Chicago and Kansas City finished with over 100 losses, and neither has a clear winning window in the immediate future. Cleveland was the team the Twins competed with for most of the season, but they fell apart down the stretch and finished ten games below the .500 mark. Detroit showed some positive signs in the second half to finish at 78-84, including some young players moving in the right direction. However, the Twins should be the AL Central favorites entering next season. MLB's playoff structure allows for upsets, and the best regular-season teams can struggle in October. Minnesota finished with a worse record than Toronto, who plays in a tougher division, but the Twins managed to sweep the Blue Jays out of the playoffs. Arizona was the last team into the NL playoffs, and they have swept their way into the NLCS. Anything can happen in the postseason, so the Twins must put themselves in a position for the playoffs and hope they can find some magic. Baseball is a funny game that can be hard to predict. Baldelli is right to look at this club and believe in the future. A World Series run isn't out of the question, but many things need to go right for that to happen. Baseball is a funny game that can be hard to predict. Do you believe the Twins are closer to a World Series title? What must they add to the roster to make that dream a reality? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Each playoff game can hinge on one pitch that is called a ball or a strike. During the 2023 postseason, umpires have tended to favor Twins opponents. Let's explore the numbers. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Each playoff game can hinge on one pitch that is called a ball or a strike. During the 2023 postseason, umpires have tended to favor Twins opponents. Let's explore the numbers. Being a major-league umpire is no easy task. It takes years of hard work and dedication to reach the big leagues, where pitchers throw triple-digit fastballs and breaking pitches with significant movement. There are also replays from multiple angles that show whether a pitch is a ball or a strike. Major League Baseball has experimented with automated strike zones and challenge systems in the minor leagues, but the human element is still part of America's Pastime. Umpires are evaluated throughout the regular season to earn spots on the field in the playoffs. These umps are supposed to be the best of the best, but teams and fans get even more upset with perceived bad calls in October. Umpire Scorecard on X (formerly known as Twitter) tracks umpire performance throughout the season. According to their website, "The @UmpScorecards platform relies on three key metrics to analyze umpire performance: accuracy (and expected stats), consistency, and favor. These metrics are calculated in house using algorithms inspired by others in the baseball community and developed by the @UmpScorecards team." Here's how the home plate umpires have fared so far in Minnesota's 2023 playoff games. Wild Card Series: Game 1 Umpire: Andy Fletcher Overall Favor (Runs): +1.46 Toronto Umpire Scorecard's model said Fletcher favored the Blue Jays by nearly 1.5 runs, including two of the three most influential calls going against the Twins. Edouard Julien should have drawn a walk with two runners on in the bottom of the second inning. His overall accuracy was slightly below the expected accuracy, but there were rough called strikes on both sides of the zone. Wild Card Series: Game 2 Umpire: Adam Hamari Overall Favor (Runs): +0.96 Toronto In Game 2, all three impactful missed calls went against the Twins, which made a tight game even closer. Sonny Gray was impacted the most by missed calls with two balls that should have been strikes, changing the trajectory of plate appearances. Hamari missed five calls on taken pitches during the game, which hurt the Twins more than the Blue Jays. ALDS: Game 1 Umpire: Brian Knight Overall Favor (Runs): +0.43 Houston Minnesota attempted to mount a late-inning comeback when Justin Verlander was awarded the most prominent missed call in Game 1. Carlos Correa batted with two outs and a runner on first base in the sixth inning. He was rung up on a ball significantly out of the strike zone. Overall, Knight missed four pitches, and the two biggest went against the Twins. ALDS: Game 2 Umpire: D.J. Reyburn Overall Favor (Runs): +0.77 Houston The top three missed calls all went against the Twins for the second time in the playoffs. Willi Castros' at-bat with the bases loaded in the seventh inning could have extended the lead and allowed the Twins to rest some of the club's high-leverage bullpen arms. The bottom of the strike zone was particularly bad for Reyburn, who incorrectly identified 13 pitches during the game. ALDS: Game 3 Umpire: Ben Miller Overall Favor (Runs): +0.31 Minnesota Tuesday's game at Target Field was the only time during the 2023 postseason where the home plate umpire favored the Twins. Even in this game, the most impactful missed call went against the Twins with Lewis' bases loaded at-bat in the fifth inning, starting with a called strike that was a ball. Miller missed most of his calls in the upper part of the zone, but his overall zone was relatively accurate, especially compared to some of the other umpires in the postseason. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues in however many playoff games remain for the Twins. Will umpires continue to make more calls against Minnesota? Will a bad call eventually cost the Twins a win? Could the Twins have won Game 1 in Houston with better umpiring? One can hope that umpiring will improve as teams move deeper into the playoffs, but the Twins have been on the wrong side of every playoff game so far. What are your thoughts on the calls discussed above? Has umpiring impacted any of the Twins' results so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are returning home after splitting the first two games in Houston. Here are four keys to keep momentum on the Twins' side with the return to Target Field. Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are returning home after splitting the first two games in Houston. Here are four keys to keep momentum on the Twins' side with the return to Target Field. Minnesota announced that Games 3 and 4 are sold out at Target Field, which should help build off the tremendous atmosphere fans created during the Wild Card Series. If the Twins want to upset the Astros, the club must win its home games and avoid a return trip to Houston. Playoff games take on a different ebb and flow than regular season action. However, there are some keys the Twins can focus on to turn the tide in their favor. Get to Houston's Starters In Game 1, the Twins made Justin Verlander work in the early innings, but the club failed to push across any runs against him. Multiple double plays turned behind Verlander helped to keep Minnesota off the board, and Verlander eventually found his groove on the mound. The team missed early opportunities and ran out of time to complete their comeback in the final innings. Thankfully, the Twins bounced back in Game 2 and scored five runs against Framber Valdez, and that trend needs to continue. In Games 3 and 4, the Twins are projected to face two of Houston's more inconsistent starters. Cristian Javier is the Astros' projected Game 3 starter, and he finished the season with career-worst totals in ERA (4.56), WHIP (1.27), and K/9 (8.8). He also allowed three runs or more In three of his final four regular season starts. The Astros can go in a few different directions for Game 4 by turning to Jose Urquidy (5.29 ERA) or switching to Verlander on short rest, but he's struggled in those types of appearances in the past. Minnesota's hitters need to take advantage of these opportunities. Home Run Barrage During the Toronto series, Royce Lewis used multiple home runs to help the team to a Game 1 victory. Jorge Polanco and Lewis hit back-to-back home runs in their Game 1 loss to Houston. In Game 2, Kyle Farmer connected for a massive two-run homer. Home runs have been part of the equation for the Twins for the entire season. In 81 home games, the Twins hit 118 home runs and posted a .778 OPS. However, the club's offense struggled in the first half (.709 OPS) before an influx of young talent helped improve the team's OPS to .808 after the All-Star Break. To continue to win in the playoffs, the Twins must use the long ball to their advantage. Minnesota saw Houston's lone left-handed pitcher on Sunday, so the club's young left-handed hitters will get plenty of home run opportunities against Houston's starters mentioned above. Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Alex Kirilloff were held hitless in both home games against the Blue Jays. The Twins need their young bats to step up if they are going to take down the defending champions. Keep the Crowd in the Game A raucous crowd played a role in the Twins series win versus the Blue Jays. Carlos Correa told Sonny Gray and the team's coaches that Toronto's runners couldn't hear the third base coach from second base because the crowd was so loud. The Blue Jays were also taking significant leads on the bases to try and get back in the game. Correa and Gray used the loud crowd to their advantage and picked off Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a critical spot of Game 2. A situation like this likely won't repeat itself, but the crowd can play a factor in favor of the Twins. Twins fans are very familiar with home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Metrodome provided a perfect environment to amplify crowd noise and helped the Twins to be nearly unbeatable at home during their World Series runs. Target Field is built on the smallest footprint of any MLB ballpark, which means fans in the upper deck are closer to the field than most other places. Twins fans must be on their feet and ensure the Astros can't get comfortable in Minnesota. Quit Pitching to Yordan Alvarez This change is quite simple. Alvarez might be the best hitter on the planet, and he's already an October legend. Quit giving him pitches to hit. Do you think the Twins should make these changes for Game 3? What's the most critical change for the club? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Sonny Gray is scheduled to take the mound in one of the most critical Twins games in recent memory. How can the veteran right-hander help turn the tide in favor of the Twins on Tuesday? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray is scheduled to take the mound in one of the most critical Twins games in recent memory. How can the veteran right-hander help turn the tide in favor of the Twins on Tuesday? From the Twins’ perspective, it would have been great for the Twins to take the first two games in Houston. However, the Astros had the advantage by resting their players through the Wild Card Series and being able to line up their starting pitchers. In MLB’s new playoff format, this is one of the most significant advantages for the top two seeds in each league. Minnesota plays in baseball’s worst division, so winning four extra games in the regular season could have flipped the script in October. Instead, the Twins found themselves in a hole, but the team bounced back nicely to take Game 2 in Houston. Sonny Gray has arguably been Minnesota’s best-starting pitcher during the 2023 season, and now he takes the mound in a critical Game 3. There’s a chance this is his last start before reaching free agency for the first time in his career, so he will want to continue his strong season. Here’s how he matches up against the Astros and how the Twins hope it’s always “Sonny” in Minneapolis. Previous 2023 Match-Ups with Houston The Twins took four of six games against the Astros during the regular season, but both series were played before the calendar flipped to June. Gray made two starts against Houston and performed well. On April 7th, Gray made his second start of the year at Target Field, and the Astros were the opponent. He dominated the defending World Series champs by tossing seven innings of one-run ball, including 13 strikeouts, a season-high for Gray. Jeremy Pena struck out four times, while Jose Abreu and Chas McCormick were set down three times. Gray’s second appearance versus the Astros came in Houston. In six innings, he allowed three earned runs on five hits with three strikeouts. He let the first two batters reach in the seventh inning before being removed, so two of the runs charged to Gray came after he left the mound. It’s tough to imagine either start having any ramifications on this game since they were so early in the season. The Astros are a different team in the season’s second half, and Gray has been a different pitcher. Current Astros Versus Gray As a veteran pitcher, Gray has faced three Astros hitters in 24 or more plate appearances. Jose Altuve and Jose Abreu lead the way with over 30 plate appearances each, and Abreu is the lone Astros regular who has hit a home run against Gray. Alex Bregman has 12 plate appearances against Gray, and he’s gotten on base over 58% of the time. Yordan Alvarez has gone 1-for-5 with a double and a strikeout, while Kyle Tucker has two doubles in six at-bats. It’s a dangerous Astros lineup, and Gray needs to continue to keep the ball in the park. Gray kept the ball in the park better than any other American League pitcher in 2023. He led baseball with a 0.39 HR/9, significantly better than any other AL pitcher. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish (0.75 HR/9) and New York’s Gerrit Cole (0.86 HR/9) rounded out the AL’s top three. Gray didn’t surrender any home runs in his first 11 appearances, and he limited batters to three home runs in his final ten starts. He hasn’t had a game yet in 2023 where he allowed more than one home run <knock on wood>. You Are My “Son”shine Gray is 33 years old, and players never know how many opportunities they will get to go on a playoff run. Like many players, he’s told reporters the reason he is still playing is for a chance to win the World Series. He last made a playoff appearance with the Yankees in 2017 when his sons were too young to remember their dad on the mound. That’s made this year’s playoffs even more critical to Gray and his family. “Having them be able to watch me play, play with them, them being able to come into the clubhouse, to just be a part of it, that and then winning a World Series, going on a playoff, going on a postseason run, that’s the things that still drive me in this game,” Gray told reporters. “That’s the reason that I still show up and put in the work that I put in.” The Twins hope Gray continues to put in work for the club and that they can help him reach his goal of winning the World Series. His Game 3 performance is critical for the team’s ultimate goal. Here’s hoping Gray continues to keep things “Sonny” for Twins fans. How do you feel about Gray’s match-up against the Astros? How long of a leash will he get in this crucial game? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins beat the odds and upset the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. So, how do the Twins compare against the Astros for each game of the ALDS? Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports The Twins beat the odds and upset the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. So, how do the Twins compare against the Astros for each game of the ALDS? Dan Szymborski has run ZiPS models at FanGraphs, and it is widely considered one of baseball's most accurate predictors. His model uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and make predictions. According to Szymborski, his playoff model gears much more toward the playoffs' micro-level than the regular season's macro-level. He explained this process by saying, "The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher's and batter's line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team's generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors' worth of players takes more than a day." These results can change as the rosters are finalized, and official starters are announced for each team. Here is how Szymborski sees the Twins and Astros series playing out over the next week. Game 1 Expected Starters: Justin Verlander vs. Bailey Ober Twins Win Probability: 38.3% The Twins' top two starters aren't available after pitching in the Wild Card Series, so the team must shift to a different pitcher for Game 1. Joe Ryan was scheduled to start Game 3 in the previous series, but the Twins decided to start Ober. Minute Maid Park is a home run friendly environment, and Ryan allowed a career-high 1.8 HR/9 compared to 1.4 HR/9 for Ober. FanGraphs originally had the Twins at 38.1% win probability, so switching starters had a small positive impact. Verlander has made 35 starts in the postseason and pitched over 200 innings for multiple World Series champions. The Astros should be favored in Game 1. Game 2 Expected Starters: Framber Valdez vs. Pablo Lopez Twins Win Probability: 38.7% Valdez has been one of the American League's best pitchers over the last three seasons while being a workhorse at the top of Houston's rotation. That being said, this win probability insults what Lopez has done on the mound this season. Lopez was among the AL's best pitchers during the 2023 season in multiple categories. Pitching in Houston can be challenging for any opponent, but he will be on full rest for Game 2, allowing him to return for Game 5 if necessary. This game is shaping up to be a pitcher's duel. Game 3 Expected Starters: Cristian Javier vs. Sonny Gray Twins Win Probability: 50.7% According to ZiPS, Game 3 is the lone game the Twins are favored to win. Gray's start in the Wild Card Series was also the only game Minnesota was projected to win, so there is still hope for the Twins. Twins Daily named Gray the team's Pitcher of the Year and MVP earlier this week, and he's mentioned how vital this playoff run is to him and his family. Javier posted a 4.56 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in 162 innings this year. This game will be critical for the Twins offense to put up some crooked numbers against the starting pitcher. Game 4 Expected Starters: Jose Urquidy vs. Joe Ryan Twins Win Probability: 48.9% Urquidy missed time during the 2023 season with right shoulder inflammation, and his on-field performance struggled for the first time in his career. In 16 appearances (63.0 IP), he posted a 5.29 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a 45-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ryan pitch significantly better at Target Field this season compared to his road appearances. In 14 home starts, his ERA was 1.38 runs lower and opponents posted an OPS that was 167 points lower. One of the two teams will face elimination during this game, so both starters will likely have a short leash. Game 5 Expected Starters: Justin Verlander vs. Pablo Lopez Twins Win Probability: 37.2% There is the potential for this to be an epic pitching matchup If the series goes five games. Verlander is a future Hall of Fame member at the end of his career. Lopez has been the ace pitcher the Twins have sought since Johan Santana was traded away. Anything can happen in a winner-take-all game, so the win probability should be closer to 50%. Overall Odds Using the ZiPS model, the Twins probability of winning the series is 36.4%. The odds of the Twins winning in three games is 7.5%, the odds of winning in three games is 15.2%, and the odds of winning in five games is 13.7%. The Astros won three more games than the Twins during the regular season and had to fight for a division title until the season's final day. Houston is more vulnerable than in previous seasons, but they are still the clear favorites on paper. Can the Twins beat the odds for the second straight round? Do you agree with the ZiPS playoff projections? Should the Twins be favored in any of the other games? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are moving on to the ALDS to face the defending World Series champions. What decisions must the team make when finalizing its roster for the second round? Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are moving on to the ALDS to face the defending World Series champions. What decisions must the team make when finalizing its roster for the second round? The Wild Card series is a condensed three-game set that requires different roles on the 26-man roster. Teams need fewer starting pitchers, allowing the team to add other bullpen or bench options. Entering the ALDS, the Twins will get to reset their 26-man roster, and there are some decisions to make before Saturday. Will Byron Buxton Be Healthy Enough to Play? Buxton didn't make the Wild Card roster after dealing with multiple injuries during the 2023 season. He has been out since the beginning of August with a hamstring strain, and he dealt with knee issues during his rehab appearances with the St. Paul Saints. He made two rehab appearances at the end of the Saints' season and went 1-for-8. Buxton also didn't participate in the team's workout leading into the Wild Card Series. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli had to have an emotional conversation with Buxton about him not being on the Wild Card roster. He told reporters, "I probably could play, but it's all about contributing. I can go out there and do what I want to do, but it probably wouldn't be at the speed I want it to be. It's one of those where I don't want to hurt the team. I don't want to put a team in a bad spot with me coming back at 50-, 60-, 70-percent. There's guys in here that have done a great job of keeping us where we're at. It's just knowing your body, knowing who you are and putting yourself in a place to help the team." There will only be five days between the start of the Wild Card Series and the opening game of the ALDS. It's tough to imagine that Buxton has made significant improvements over the last week so that the Twins would consider putting him on the ALDS roster. There's a chance the team wants him to serve in a bench bat role, but they would likely need him to be able to play outfield too. Can he help the team? That remains doubtful at this point. Which Starter Fills the Fourth Rotation Spot? Minnesota only needed two starting pitchers for the Wild Card Series, but Joe Ryan was scheduled to start Game 3, if necessary. Since the ALDS begins on Saturday, Joe Ryan is the likely starter, but he has been home run prone this year, and Houston is a dangerous offensive team. The Twins may want to pitch one of their other starters in Houston and push Ryan back to Game 4 at Target Field. Pablo Lopez can start Game 2 on regular rest, putting Sonny Gray pitching in a pivotal Game 3 in front of the home crowd. Bailey Ober wasn't on the Wild Card Series roster, but he will likely be needed to start Game 4 if the ALDS series lasts that many games. Minnesota can also turn the fourth spot over to Kenta Maeda, who pitched well in the second half. It seems likely for the Twins to follow this rotational plan (*if necessary): Game 1: Ryan Game 2: Lopez Game 3: Gray Game 4*: Ober Game 5*: Lopez Which Wild Card Series Players Don't Make the ALDS Roster? Kody Funderburk was a surprise inclusion on the Wild Card roster, but the Twins thought an additional left-handed pitcher would be helpful. In 11 appearances, he posted a 0.75 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and a 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His spot on the ALDS roster will likely need to be filled by Ober as the fourth starter. Minnesota could keep Funderburk and use Maeda as the fourth starter, but he shifted to the bullpen over the season's final games, and the team might want him to stay in that role. On the position player side, Andrew Stevenson is the only roster spot that might be up in the air. Stevenson offers a unique skill set as a pinch runner and defense replacement. If Buxton makes the roster, Stevenson likely needs to be the player removed from the bench. It seems most likely for the team to keep Stevenson, especially since Buxton's health is still questionable. Do you think Buxton makes the ALDS roster? How would you organize the team's rotation for the second round? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins had two starters and a closer that rank among baseball's best during the 2023 season. Here's how the Twins Daily writers decided who should be named the team's best pitcher. The Twins had two starters and a closer that rank among baseball's best during the 2023 season. Here's how the Twins Daily writers decided who should be named the team's best pitcher. Minnesota has been striving to build a competitive pitching staff since the current front office regime took the reins. There have been plenty of bumps along the way, but the Twins were able to compile one of baseball's best-starting staffs this season with depth in the rotation and bullpen. Below are the results of the voting from 18 writers at Twins Daily. Each writer ranked their top five pitchers, and the results are below. Some writers likely debated who should be the team's top pitcher, but there was a clear winner after tallying the votes. 5. Bailey Ober Ober was one of the Twins' most consistent pitchers throughout the 2023 season, and he might have finished higher on this list if he was at Triple-A to start the year. In 26 starts (144 1/3 IP), he posted a 3.43 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a 146-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He upped his changeup usage from 15.6% last season to 28.0% in 2023, and batters OPS against the pitch dropped by 100 points. Ober pitched a career-high in innings and has established himself as a middle-of-the-order rotation option for the foreseeable future. 4. Joe Ryan Overall, Ryan's sophomore season didn't compare ideally with his rookie campaign. However, his numbers are slightly skewed because he attempted to pitch through a groin injury in the middle of the season. In 15 starts before his injury, he posted a 2.98 ERA and held opponents to a .548 OPS. He set a career-high with 11.0 K/9 by mixing in an improved split-finger and sweeper over 38% of the time. His sweeper generated the highest Whiff % (32.3%) and Put Away % (19.0%). Ryan will be expected to take on an even more critical role in the Twins rotation next season. 3. Jhoan Duran First Place Votes: 1 Last season, Duran won the TD Best Pitcher award after a tremendous rookie season. It's never a good sign when a reliever wins the team's best pitcher award because that likely means the team's starters are struggling. In 59 appearances (62 1/3 IP), Duran posted a 2.45 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and an 84-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Duran pitched in 47 of the team's 87 wins, with the club going 47-12 in games where he appeared this season. He threw the most pitches over 100+ during the 2023 season and leads baseball in pitches over 100+ over the last two seasons. The Twins bullpen would look very different without Duran as the closer. 2. Pablo Lopez First Place Votes: 4 Lopez was among the league's best during his first season with the Twins. He finished in the top five among AL pitchers in strikeouts, quality starts, WAR, and innings pitched. His 234 strikeouts were the most by a Twins pitcher since Johan Santana, Lopez's boyhood idol, struck out 235 in 2007. His 10.86 K/9 ratio in 2023 was the highest single-season ratio in Twins history among qualified pitchers. Lopez added a sweeper after joining the Twins and threw it over 20% of the time. Opponents posted a .287 SLG against his sweeper while generating a 36.6 Whiff%. He will likely get some down ballot votes for the AL Cy Young and was critical to the team's success during the current season. 1. Sonny Gray First Place Votes: 13 Like Lopez, Gray compiled career-best numbers at the top of the Twins' rotation. In 32 starts, he posted a 2.79 ERA (2nd in the AL) with a 1.15 WHIP and a 183-to-55 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 2.83 FIP, 0.4 HR/9, opponent SLG, and WAR were the top totals among qualified AL starters. Gray finished the season with the lowest ERA by a Twins starter (minimum 20 GS) since Johan Santana in 2006. Gray limited right-handed hitters to a .220 BA, while lefties BA was 13 points higher. He remained relatively healthy during the 2023 season compared to other seasons and compiled his highest inning total since 2015. Sweepers were the most trendy pitch across baseball in 2023, and Gray changed his pitch usage. During the 2022 season, he used his sweeper 10.3% of the time and increased its usage by over 10% during the current campaign. Opposing batters posted a .094 BA against his sweeper with a .118 SLG. Gerrit Cole is a lock to win the AL Cy Young, but Gray should receive top five votes on many ballots. He's headed to free agency at the perfect time and should be able to cash in on a lucrative long-term deal. Do you agree with the way the results of the writer's voting? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Final Voting Points Tally Sonny Gray: 85 points Pablo Lopez: 75 points Jhoan Duran: 45 points Joe Ryan: 28 points Bailey Ober: 19 points Recent TD Best Pitcher Winners 2022: Jhoan Duran 2021: Jose Berrios 2020: Kenta Maeda 2019: Taylor Rogers View full article

Anything can happen in October, and the Twins have one of their strongest rosters in recent memory. So, how do the Twins compare against the Blue Jays for each game in the Wild Card Series? Image courtesy of Michael McLoone - USA Today Sports Anything can happen in October, and the Twins have one of their strongest rosters in recent memory. So, how do the Twins compare against the Blue Jays for each game in the Wild Card Series? Dan Szymborski has run ZiPS models at FanGraphs and other site for years, and it is widely considered one of baseball's most accurate predictors. His model uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and make predictions. According to Szymborski, his playoff model gears much more toward the playoffs' micro-level than the regular season's macro-level. He explained this process by saying, "The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher's and batter's line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team's generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors' worth of players takes more than a day." These results can change as the rosters are finalized, and official starters are announced for each team. Here is how Szymborski sees the Twins and Blue Jays series playing out over the next three days. Game 1 Expected Starters: Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez Twins Win Probability: 43.1% ZiPS gives the Blue Jays the advantage in Game 1 with Gausman on the mound. The Twins faced Gausman twice this season and scored seven earned runs in 10 innings. Lopez made one start against Toronto and allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. His start against the Blue Jays was back at the end of May when he was struggling, so the current version of Lopez is a different pitcher. Minnesota will likely pack their lineup with left-handed hitters in hopes of pushing Gausman out of the game early. Lefties have posted a .731 OPS against Gausman this season, 113 points higher than he allowed to righties. Game 2 Expected Starters: Jose Berrios vs. Sonny Gray Twins Win Probability: 50.3% This game will be full of storylines no matter what happens in Game 1. Berrios returning to Target Field on the playoff stage is one storyline that is dripping with intrigue. He made one start against the Twins this year and tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings. Gray making what could be his last start before hitting free agency for the first time is another headline to follow. He started one game versus the Blue Jays and allowed one run on five hits in five innings. Game 2 is the only game the Twins are favored to win, and it's a coin flip game according to ZiPS. Game 3 Expected Starters: Chris Bassitt vs. Joe Ryan Twins Win Probability: 45.4% Both teams can go in multiple directions for an elimination game. Bassitt has been strong for Toronto, but the club might want to start Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher. This switch would force the Twins to start more right-handed batters for Game 3, and then Bassitt could be used in a piggybacking role. On Sunday's episode of Inside Twins, Rocco Baldelli was asked about Game 3 and whether Ryan would make the start. He wasn't willing to name an official starter but said that traditional starter and reliever roles go out the window in a do-or-die game. Overall Odds Using the ZiPS model, the Twins probability of winning the series is 44.4%. The odds of the Twins winning in two games is 21.7%, and the odds of winning in three games is 22.7%. The Blue Jays won two more games than the Twins during the regular season while playing in a significantly more competitive division. Minnesota has played better in the second half, and it's shaping up to be a good series, even if the odds favor Toronto. Do you agree with the ZiPS playoff projections? Should the Twins be favored in either of the other games? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins will likely try and find a way to get Royce Lewis on the playoff roster. What are the three options facing the team when it comes to Lewis? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Royce Lewis has been progressing steadily since going on the IL with a Grade 1-plus hamstring strain on September 21. It can take a player multiple weeks to recover from this level of hamstring strain, but the Twins seem confident that he will return to action for the Wild Card Series. There are a few different options for the Twins in how they handle Lewis in the season's most important games. Do they want to use him in the field when his injury is not fully healed? Lewis has been a revelation to the Twins lineup during his rookie campaign. In 58 games, he hit .309/.372/.548 (.921) with seven doubles and 15 home runs. Big moments also seemed to find Lewis as he hit four grand slams and finished second among Twins batters in WPA behind Willi Castro. The Twins know what he can mean to the lineup, and there's no question the team will find a way for him to impact the team in October. Here are three options the Twins can follow depending on how Lewis looks during the team's workout on Monday. Option 1: Starting Third Baseman Slow rollers at third base can be a challenging play for a healthy third baseman to make regularly. These types of plays can be even more challenging for a player recovering from a hamstring injury. Lewis has been participating in baseball activities at Target Field over the last week, so the team has a pretty good idea of what he will be able to handle on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota's optimal defensive lineup includes Lewis at third, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Jorge Polanco at second base. Besides Lewis, there are injury concerns with Correa and what he will be able to do at shortstop. The Twins likely want to avoid two defenders on the same side of the infield with limited mobility. If that is the case, Minnesota might switch to one of the other options listed below. Option 2: Designated Hitter There are multiple options the team can consider at designated hitter, but this might be the safest bet for Lewis. Putting him at DH allows the team to still have his bat in the lineup, and it allows him to rest his hamstring by not playing third base. In this scenario, the Twins would move Polanco to third base and Julien to second base. Polanco has looked fine in minimal action at the hot corner this season, and Julien continues to work to improve at second base. However, there are other ramifications if Lewis is the DH. Byron Buxton has also been working his way back from injury, but his inclusion on the playoff roster is much less certain. Minnesota could use Buxton as a big bench bat, and that might be the team's plan if the club can make it past the Wild Card round. He couldn't make many appearances during his rehab assignment because his knee continued to bother him. In his last two Triple-A games, he went 1-for-8 with three strikeouts. It seems more likely for Lewis to be the team's DH over Buxton. Option 3: Rest Him for Round 2 Minnesota will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series, and the club's top starters are right-handed. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt will be the team's likely starters for the three-game set, but the team can also utilize Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher. Lewis, a righty, posted reverse splits this season with a .962 OPS versus righties and a .787 OPS versus lefties. He got on base over 37% of the time, no matter the handedness of the pitcher, but 19 of his 22 extra-base hits came against righties. If the Twins leave him off the Wild Card roster, Lewis will get four extra days of rest because the team can reset their roster for each playoff round. With a Grade 1-plus strain, each extra day of rest can get him closer to being 100%. Minnesota hasn't won a playoff game in nearly two decades, so the team will want all hands on deck. Which option will the Twins pick? Which option would you pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins will likely try and find a way to get Royce Lewis on the playoff roster. What are the three options facing the team when it comes to Lewis? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports The Twins will likely try and find a way to get Royce Lewis on the playoff roster. What are the three options facing the team when it comes to Lewis? Royce Lewis has been progressing steadily since going on the IL with a Grade 1-plus hamstring strain on September 21. It can take a player multiple weeks to recover from this level of hamstring strain, but the Twins seem confident that he will return to action for the Wild Card Series. There are a few different options for the Twins in how they handle Lewis in the season's most important games. Do they want to use him in the field when his injury is not fully healed? Lewis has been a revelation to the Twins lineup during his rookie campaign. In 58 games, he hit .309/.372/.548 (.921) with seven doubles and 15 home runs. Big moments also seemed to find Lewis as he hit four grand slams and finished second among Twins batters in WPA behind Willi Castro. The Twins know what he can mean to the lineup, and there's no question the team will find a way for him to impact the team in October. Here are three options the Twins can follow depending on how Lewis looks during the team's workout on Monday. Option 1: Starting Third Baseman Slow rollers at third base can be a challenging play for a healthy third baseman to make regularly. These types of plays can be even more challenging for a player recovering from a hamstring injury. Lewis has been participating in baseball activities at Target Field over the last week, so the team has a pretty good idea of what he will be able to handle on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota's optimal defensive lineup includes Lewis at third, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Jorge Polanco at second base. Besides Lewis, there are injury concerns with Correa and what he will be able to do at shortstop. The Twins likely want to avoid two defenders on the same side of the infield with limited mobility. If that is the case, Minnesota might switch to one of the other options listed below. Option 2: Designated Hitter There are multiple options the team can consider at designated hitter, but this might be the safest bet for Lewis. Putting him at DH allows the team to still have his bat in the lineup, and it allows him to rest his hamstring by not playing third base. In this scenario, the Twins would move Polanco to third base and Julien to second base. Polanco has looked fine in minimal action at the hot corner this season, and Julien continues to work to improve at second base. However, there are other ramifications if Lewis is the DH. Byron Buxton has also been working his way back from injury, but his inclusion on the playoff roster is much less certain. Minnesota could use Buxton as a big bench bat, and that might be the team's plan if the club can make it past the Wild Card round. He couldn't make many appearances during his rehab assignment because his knee continued to bother him. In his last two Triple-A games, he went 1-for-8 with three strikeouts. It seems more likely for Lewis to be the team's DH over Buxton. Option 3: Rest Him for Round 2 Minnesota will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series, and the club's top starters are right-handed. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt will be the team's likely starters for the three-game set, but the team can also utilize Yusei Kikuchi, a left-handed pitcher. Lewis, a righty, posted reverse splits this season with a .962 OPS versus righties and a .787 OPS versus lefties. He got on base over 37% of the time, no matter the handedness of the pitcher, but 19 of his 22 extra-base hits came against righties. If the Twins leave him off the Wild Card roster, Lewis will get four extra days of rest because the team can reset their roster for each playoff round. With a Grade 1-plus strain, each extra day of rest can get him closer to being 100%. Minnesota hasn't won a playoff game in nearly two decades, so the team will want all hands on deck. Which option will the Twins pick? Which option would you pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article