Woof Bronzer
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Everything posted by Woof Bronzer
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The Front Office Was Right to Bet on Their Roster
Woof Bronzer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This isn't the first TD article to suggest that the Twins would have been worse off if they'd acquired better players at the deadline. The hottest of hot takes. Bigger indictment is the theory that underpins this article: that the only goal for the Twins is winning the putrid Central. Says so, so much about this franchise.- 34 replies
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- royce lewis
- brock stewart
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Is anyone else getting an ominous feeling about the silence re: Lewis' MRI yesterday?
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- byron buxton
- edouard julien
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Agree but WAR is perhaps the most egregious "expected stats" projection out there. Don't get me wrong, WAR has a place in front offices trying to evaluate talent, but it absolutely should not be used for awards. And don't get me started on WPA. I'd also sub in RA/9 for ERA to take the judgement call out of it.
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The Astros are Not the Juggernaut You Remember
Woof Bronzer replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins did not face any of the Stros top 3 starters, and the games were all early in the season when Houston was still sleepwalking. The season series is not particularly meaningful. I'm guessing a similar article was written in 2020 before the playoffs. Houston is a serious franchise. They do what they need to do in the regular season, and ramp it up in the playoffs. -
I cannot believe the Twins would consider starting him at DH for the playoffs.
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Not a good matchup for the Twins. Mariners neutralize the Twins' strength with stronger starting pitching, Rodriguez is a super Lewis, bullpen is slightly better, etc. (Though Seattle has to be kicking themselves for trading away their closer.) They're similar to the Twins except slightly better in most if not all areas. That said, if the postseason was about who's better on paper we wouldn't play the games :)
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It's tough. Ryan has simply not been good in his career against good competition. But I don't trust Maeda as a #3 either. I just heard Falvey on KFAN saying starters get pulled earlier in the playoffs. Here we go - my biggest fear for these playoffs. Get ready for the Twins to try to win this series by neutralizing their strength (starting pitching) in order to live or die by their "not a priority" weakness (bullpen). And we're not even going to have a starting pitching advantage to begin with if we play Seattle or Toronto (and Texas has 2 lefty options). But if Falvey is going to implement a 4/5-and-fly for starters, like he has in every single playoff game during his tenure, it really doesn't matter who starts. The series will be won and lost in innings 5-9.
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How Much Should the Twins Play Carlos Correa?
Woof Bronzer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd say ask the medical staff instead. If players are going to make medical decisions I don't know why we have a medical staff. And Carlos' decision to play injured has hurt the team. -
Royce Lewis. Dude. This will come as a shock to no one, but I've been down on this team so far. Honestly they are trending in the right direction. And Lewis can legit win a series for us. I mean this in all sincerity: it's his team now. And if he goes on a playoff run....I can't believe I'm doing this to myself. But seriously. Royce Lewis.
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- bailey ober
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If the job is to just read a chart they'd just pay you or me to do it, for much less than they pay Rocco :)
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But the argument is whether Vasquez gives us the better chance to win. So much of the modern analytics movement is laser focused on when is the right time to pull a player from the game; very little focus is given to who is going to replace the pulled player, and whether said replacement is a better option for the specific situation. Saying "let's yank Julien and replace him with anyone else" is a questionable strategy at best, in my opinion. Not to mention the damage that can be done to a young player who continually gets pulled in important moments. If you keep telling Julien he can't hit lefties, and never give him the chance to prove you wrong, eventually he'll start to believe you!
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It's extreme to suggest that the Twins should not have pinch hit a terrible hitter for a better one? Sure, ok.
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Plus I don't get the logic that he's healthy enough to start the game and hit 3 times but suddenly before his most important at bat we need to rest him. Is that extra 3 minutes of rest really going to move the needle?
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With a 6x larger sample size than Julien's, fwiw
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15 Twins have made more outs against lefties than Julien has. Should we sit all of them against lefties too? If it turns out Julien can hold his own against lefties, that will help us win games. Otherwise we're sitting him in favor of such illustrious, game-winning hitters as...Christian Vasquez.
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Seems like the Twins should give him every available at bat against lefties through the end of the regular season. Why not?
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🤣😂😂🤣😂 Have a good day sir. It's been...interesting.
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You seriously need to look at the sources you cite before you site them. What you referenced is from June 21, 2023, and shows simulated season records using to-date performance AND IT SHOWS THAT THE TWINS ARE PREDICTED TO WIN THE DIVISION WITH 83 WINS. My goodness. Just put the shovel away man. I'm seriously curious: why do you think it's important to pretend that the Twins have somehow overperformed this year?
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Your "claim" was this: The average consensus of non Twins fans was this was a team that would finish 3rd in its division. The average consensus was 78-82. You have yet to provide evidence of a single source predicting the Twins would a) finish 3rd in its division or b) win 78-82 games. Providing no evidence is not "enough evidence", and I disagree that providing a single piece of evidence is a "high hurdle". Fascinated to see how far you are willing to go with this...
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Lol you didn't even read the articles you cited. ESPN did not "have us below .500". They didn't even provide a predicted win total, or an order of finish. ESPN's article in fact doesn't say a word about the Twins, much less firing Rocco, or Falvine. The other sites you mention only verify what others have told you, that the Twins are tracking right toward their predictions, and if anything they've slightly underachieved given the ridiculously bad division. But at least you have debunked your own claim about expectations, so we can retire that talking point.
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Uh, what? Vegas had them at 84 wins I think. Given that the Central is much worse than anyone expected at the beginning of the year the Twins should have a much better record than they do (take out their record vs KC and OAK, two of the worst MLB teams ever assembled, and they're under .500). Which doesn't matter, they're gonna win the division which is the regular season goal, and if they make a move in the playoffs none of it will matter anyhow. But my goodness, I truly do not understand the need to revise history. They won't take away your fan card for saying they Twins would be better with better relivers, or that the Twins have had a mediocre regular season.
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This idea that replacing a worse pitcher with a better one wouldn't make a difference is just so wild.
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World Series here we come baby!
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Right, that's what I'm saying, it's $40mil ($45m?) in largely sunk costs so the Twins will need to work around that. $50m including the $10m/yr they're paying Vasquez to be a backup catcher. $10m for Polanco in a vacuum isn't unreasonable but when you basically have $100m to spend on 23 or so guys to fill out the roster, that money can be better spent elsewhere in my opinion (which I acknowledge isn't a popular one.)
