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August J Gloop

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Everything posted by August J Gloop

  1. August J Gloop
    Because it is harder to find, people naturally overvalue pitching. The only thing they value even more than pitching is superstardom. That's an even more elusive thing, cuz it's not really knowable until you're neck deep in it. The problem is, it gets projected onto prospects all the time. EMRD seems like a slam dunk for that superstardom to some and we think of Big Papi when we think of trading him away. Others are like pitching is the only answer ever, trade him for Logan Gilbert.
  2. August J Gloop
    I see you're new to the world of Jerry DiPoto. Logan Gilbert has not been good enough to demand top prospects now that he's getting Arb bumps. I bet if the Twins showed up With Polanco and 10 Million Bucks, they could get Gilbert. They'd probably have to include a little more to soothe Trader Jerry's urges, but nothing gets him going quite like getting players for free.
  3. August J Gloop
    Projection models show the following WRC+. (Salary Braketed) Arraez - 118 (at least 10 Million in Arb) Kepler - 116 (10 Million) Julien - 114 (League Minimum) So no, it's not time to bring him home.
  4. August J Gloop
    It's clear that everyone is playing chicken both with each other and Diamond Sports Group. Nobody knows what their budget will be so they can't commit. The Twins should just accept this reality that they're paying Kep and Polo this year. They can't get out of it. So if they move on, they will be able to get better prospects. Free Kep is pretty valuable. Free Polo is very valuable.
  5. August J Gloop
    Larnach and Gordon for Victor Vodnik? I love his swing and miss potential and supervillain name.
  6. August J Gloop
    I har right back you. Festa is healthy Meyer has not been (and it seems like Miami is planning to stash him at AAA anyway, preferring to stretch AJ Puk out ). I don't think they see MNMax as all that big a part of their future anymore. Miami had literally the worst offense last year and Max would slot in as their top offensive option other than Arraez. He's a good hitter and is cost controlled. But if it makes you happy, let's put Ober in that deal. If the Twins had Luzardo, Moving Ober would probably help the clubhouse anyway, since he might get booted from the rotation again. (If the Seattle thing pans out) The point in all this is that the new guy in MIA has an mission to pay as little as possible for the team this year, which is why Luzardo is on the block at all. The aforementioned move of Puk to the rotation when they have all these young guys? What? Either they have zero confidence in MNMax or they decided since Puk gets 1M, he better get to the rotation. The list of teams that are going to offer anything useful for for 2024 is pretty short. If they are willing to tank after a playoff appearance, then sure, let's talk prospects. But My guess is that he has to make it look like they're competing, so he's not going to get many better offers for 2024.
  7. August J Gloop
    No more starters who don't strike guys out. Just stop getting them. If you're going to absorb salary, absorb Haniger, since if he's healthy he has utility. Plus That increases the talent you can get with him. Anthony D even when healthy is a luck based pitcher, and that's not worth absorbing salary for.
  8. August J Gloop
    it's 50% of a league minimum player, and Last year Gordon was -100% a league minimum player, so I kinda see the Twins side. I wouldn't go to Arb over it, but I also wouldn't have tendered a contract to Gordon and instead tried for a MiLB deal with him. I'm guessing his representation is saying go to a hearing rather than settle at the midpoint.
  9. August J Gloop
    Lee and Julien are both at the trade for all-star level. I don't see how keeping both is any sort of problem. The better comps are trade Julien OR Polanco. Trade Kepler OR Wallner. It speaks to what you're trying to do with the trade. Trade talent and control or reasonable salary and track record. Both have value, but the return is varied. I'll bang the drum again. Polo to Seattle for Haniger and Bryan Woo. Net +8 MIL to Twins Kepler, Gordon + Festa (Might Need 1 more decent prospect) for J Luzardo and Max Meyer. Or If they don't like any of the prospects enough, then Meyer and Trevor Rodgers for Kepler and Gordon. (Miami needs offense, bad). Net - 5 to Twins in the Luzardo track, -10 in the non Luzardo result. Basically they could add some quality young pitching from teams that are in desperate need of some offensive stability. they can do it without taking on too much salary, whuch we know is a priority. And they'd likely have enough to sign Hader. Suaraez was also a strikeout dump / philosophy change by Jerry DiPito who seems to justify his existence by making a bunch of trades every year. Polo fits their needs that they created. That's why I see an opportunity for the Twins to get in there.
  10. August J Gloop
    Larnach to CO, hits 50 bombs in coors, 2 on the road.
  11. August J Gloop
    And would you trade him back for Arraez? I assume that at this point anyone the Twins ask after will instantly become more valuable since the team will now think they're missing something. that these wizards are looking to improve on.
  12. August J Gloop
    The Mariners are pretty desperate for quality infielders. They have no money even after ditching Ray's contract. One thought could be for the Twins to send Polo for Haniger's Salary and Bryan Woo. (Why do you keep saying him and not Gilbert or Miller? Well, cuz Woo has better swing and miss stuff and the most long term control.) That would make the move basically the Twins buying 5 controlled years of Woo and a Haniger lottery ticket for 8 Million. If Haniger is healthy, he's pretty good. If not, eh, put him on the 60 day and enjoy the talented young pitcher. Flip Kep (and prospects?) on to the Marlins for one (two?) of their cost controlled talents and you've essentially saved 3 Mil and upgraded the pitching considerably without deeply damaging the offensive outlook. In this scenario, you'd probably still need to sign MAT as well.
  13. August J Gloop
    These Zips projections underscore how if Polo and Kepler can be moved for pitching, the needle really can be pushed into a good spot.
  14. August J Gloop
    Remember that babip is luck until it's a player you don't like then it's weak contact. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/max-kepler-596146?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb They have a fun data viz animation that dispels the idea that Max's low babip is a product of bad contact. Here is the key element: Player 14634 2714 202 7.4 5.2 89.7 115.4 14.7 32.0 .252 .422 .323 .330 .361 40.4 18.4 10.1 MLB 6.9 4.7 88.4 122.4 12.2 33.1 .245 .406 .316 .315 .369 36.3 22.1 8.4 Dang the headers keep falling off. His Average ext velo is above mlb average, his hard hit is 4% better, etc. Max is a polarizing figure, and I suppport his trading, but not because I think he's bad, but because I think he can bring value in a trade and his production can be replaced. I do not think he's a player that would ever be considered for a QO since so much of his value is tied up in Defense and defense is so extremely fungible.
  15. August J Gloop
    If Paddack is under 120 innings and totally healthy, then he must have been pitching terribly or got suspended. That's 4 innings a start. There would be no reason to shield his arm that much, he's 28. The only reason to shield it at all is cuz you want even more innings next year.
  16. August J Gloop
    Polo to the Mariners for Bryan Woo. The least heralded of the exciting young pitchers in teal, but he's got promise. He has a live fastball and the Twins have been good at unlocking sweepers.
  17. August J Gloop
    Its unlikely that Paddack will be limited to 100 innings. That would only be 5 innings a start for 25 starts. That would imply they skipped him 7 times. If they plan to skip him that many times, 6 innings is better target for each start, which is 150 innings. That would be my innings target for Paddack, but without the skipping. I'd let him go 6-7 depending on stress / pitch count, but if he's over 85 through 5, he's coming out (at least early in the season). I 'd do thins since he's under contract for 2025 as well. If he were a free agent, I'd probably be less concerned, unless the medical directives or performance suggested he was struggling. Ober and Ryan should be targeting 180 and Lopez 200. I doubt Louie will be the 5th member of the rotation but if he is, then he'd likely be looking at the same 150 mark as Paddack, due to a lack of innings in his career. 860 IP from the starters. That would be 35 innings less than last year, but still a top 10 number. I think we could work with that.
  18. August J Gloop
    Shota Imanaga. The clock is ticking. Come flying in with a groovy offer and get it done. Trade Ober and Kepler for Bieber. Send Polo and a prospect to Chicago for Cease. (Essentially put a couple guys in spots they've hit well in and can look cool for flips). Make an AL Central pitching Voltron wearing a Twins hat. I'm mostly joking about that, but I think Imanaga and another good pitcher from a trade would be great.
  19. August J Gloop
    But my point is what about Varland can you profile will get better without significant pitch quality improvement? As soon as the league got a few looks at his offspeeds, it was game over. He seems like the sort of fella who will work hard to add, sure. He has the physicality to do it, but right now without much improvement, he profiles as a great reliever. He's a way below average starter or a great reliever. I hope to be totally wrong about it (like all my cautious or critical positions on Twins players), for sure, cuz I'd love to see Lou be a big time starter.
  20. August J Gloop
    This only serves to argue that the Twins should have signed Maeda. Varland is way way way behind Maeda right now.
  21. August J Gloop
    Too much time is spent dinking around with these mid / end rotation pitchers. I agree the Twins need a couple more. But the only reason anyone thinks Varland might be that is because he's already on the team (and maybe a little because he's from St Paul). If we saw him on another team would we be clamoring to add him to the mix? In order for Varland to be a legit starting option he needs to develop two whole pitches. As it stands, he has no secondary pitches of worth for a starter. Out of the pen, he's got a 100 MPH fastball and (at least) two secondary pitches that increase in effectiveness in contrast. Unless he comes back from driveline with a wipeout slider and a changeup that won't get barreled, what will be gained by having him pitch at 94-95 for 6 innings a week vs at 98-100 for 1 every other day?
  22. August J Gloop
    SWR has two things going for him for fans (well three if you count the cool name). One, He was traded for Berrios, so folks want him to work out. Two, he's got physical tools which could be useful if he can harnass them. Potential is intoxicating.
  23. August J Gloop
    I would be mildly surprised if either Max or Polo are with the team by spring training. Max because he has value right now, and they'd really feel dum if he turned back into a pumpkin and they had to DFA him. Matt Wallner is a good cost effective replacement and Kep woud be a good fit in Atlanta as a replacement for Eddie Rosario. There's somewhere to go with a Max for Max trade, since Atlanta missed the boat on extending Max Fried. Obviously, The Twins would need more than Kep to get that done, but not insane levels since all that ATL is going to get for Fried otherwise is a comp pick. The Max Meyer idea is good. Essentially, they could send Polo to Miami for one of their scratch and dent talented pitchers. Meyer, Cabrera and Rodgers all have some blemishes but if healthy profile nicely. If the Twins threw in more, then Garrett could be available to them. Luzardo would be even a bit more costly but still doable. And with Kep and Polo off the Books, there still would be enough $$ to make a run at Shota Imanaga (although I'd argue even with both, Imanaga is realistic).
  24. August J Gloop
    Sonny is a grouch, but he's not a dunce. He knows that he didn't have two of his best years in career despite the Twins. He bolted because the Cards offer is above market and he didn't dare let them think about it. I wish him well in all his starts except for any potential one against the Twins.
  25. August J Gloop
    Houston has, infact, struck out at the 6th Lowest rate over the past 10 years. They are 3rd in scoring over that period. 4.75 RPG. Of the 5 teams who have struck out at a lower rate than HOU, only 1 has scored more runs. That would be Boston. 4.92 RPG. (I'm beginning to think there might be something LEFT out of the explanation for that). The other 4 teams with similar strikeout percentages have scored on average 500 runs less over the past decade. Also, over that same period of time the Twins are 7th, at 4.55 RPG. It can not be denied that over the past 10 years Houston has held a pretty stark talent advantage on the offensive side. So it could be argued that the Twins have closed the talent gap to some degree by taking a higher risk, higher reward approach to two strike hitting. Let's just consider 2023. We see the Twins scored 4.8 runs per game. The Astros 5.1. Seems cut and dry, right? Less Strike outs, more runz! But! It's not an inverse thing. Of the top 10 in not striking out, only Houston, Atlanta and the Dodgers actually scored more runs than the Twins. Obviously, the Twins want to strike out less. Who wouldn't? They'd love to get their K% down to 20%. But not at the cost of OPS. It's very possible and even quite likely that they will do exactly that next year by just continuing to refine the process. Chop 2.5% of their strike outs, mostly by not missing as many pitches earlier in the at bats? Become a top 5 offense.
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