Greggory Masterson

Whoops. For some reason, in my head, the Metrodome was in Bloomington…

As we reach the current day, those involved with the beginning of this streak have long since left the organization, and few even remain from the 2017 team, but it's still the same story. What even is a Minnesota Twin? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports This is Part 3 of a series looking at how much the Twins organization has turned over since the beginning of the club's infamous 0-18 streak. For the best reading experience, start with Part 2, which reviews the 2004 and 2006 playoff teams and outlines the concepts and aim of this series. 2019: Full-Frontal Offensive Assault One more suit change: a third manager. Rocco Baldelli became the third captain of the ship before the 2019 season. Joe Mauer, the last piece even tangentially related to the 2004 series, had also retired. If you believe that a ship can change if enough boards are removed, we're out of swaps to make unless you're clinging for your life to the Dave St. Peter part. Nothing remains of the 2004 iteration. Most positions have had at least four different players manning them in the intervening iterations. This team, which set the single-season home run record in the regular season, returned several participants in the 2017 Wild Card game. Jorge Polanco, who this year snapped a streak of five consecutive trips to the playoffs with a different starting shortstop, was joined by German Wunderkind Max Kepler, free-swinger Eddie Rosario, Swiss Army knife reliever Taylor Rogers, and Jose Berrios, who was used as a reliever in the 2017 Wild Card but had established himself as the team's top starting pitcher. Lumbering slugger Miguel Sano played third base, which he would have in 2017 had he not had to get a titanium rod put in his leg toward the end of that season. Fellow former ultra-prospect Byron Buxton had played in the 2017 game until an injury at the wall forced his removal, and he had likewise had an early end to his 2019 at the hands of an outfield wall. Added to this fourth core were veteran role players C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Marwin Gonzalez. Nelson Cruz, the best free agent signing in decades for the club, was the clubhouse leader and the team's face. Mitch Garver had emerged as the top catcher, winning a Silver Slugger and starting all three playoff games. Fourth outfielder Jake Cave was pushed into service. A young infielder named Luis Arraez (batting average, ever heard of it!?) started at second base—the sixth different second baseman in six playoff appearances (Cuddyer, Castillo, Punto, Hudson, Dozier, Arraez). Ehire Adrianza and Jason Castro played significant roles on that team but did not see any playoff action despite playing in the 2017 game. On the pitching side, Berrios was joined by Jake Odorizzi and Randy Dobnak (whose former employment will NOT be mentioned in this piece). The bullpen was almost wholly overhauled between the 2017 Wild Card and 2019 ALDS, including team veterans Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, and Kyle Gibson all pitching out of the bullpen. Frisby-throwing Sergio Romo was also a major cog. Pop-up bullpen pieces in 2019 also made appearances (and many fans will never let you forget it): Cody Stashak and Zack Littell notably pitched in the middle innings, and Devin Smeltzer threw 3.1 scoreless innings after Dobnak's early exit in Game 2. Flame-throwing 20-year-old Brusdar Graterol found his way into a game, also. However, the same shanty continued to be sung. Not even the greatest power offense in baseball history could stop the rising tide. The count is 16. Returning pieces from 2017: José Berríos, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario New pieces in 2019: Luis Arraez, Jake Cave, C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, Randy Dobnak, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Kyle Gibson, Marwin Gonzalez, Brusdar Graterol, Zack Littell, Trevor May, Jake Odorizzi, Sergio Romo, Miguel Sanó, Jonathan Schoop, Devin Smeltzer, Cody Stashak Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year 2020: The Ghost Ship Let's just say that the world contracted scurvy and leave it at that. The most recent trip to the postseason for your Minnesota Twins came at the end of a truncated 60-game season with an expanded playoff structure, so the Twins were only guaranteed two games. The streak could only grow by two games, max. It's striking how similar the 2020 team was to the 2019 team in its construction. Nearly all significant players returned to run it back, though on the hitting side Schoop and Cron—both 20-homer hitters, mind you, hit free agency. Arraez was prepared to take over second base fully, and former MVP third baseman Josh Donaldson, the largest free agent signing in team history to that point, bumped Sano over to Cron's spot at first base. Donaldson was not healthy enough for the playoffs, so he doesn't even factor into this discussion. Buxton was dealing with a brain injury following getting plunked in the head during the last series of the season, but he still unadvisedly started the first game and pinch-ran in the second, getting picked off at first in a crucial moment. Alex Kirilloff debuted in the playoffs that year. Ryan Jeffers started at catcher, partly due to his hot start to his career but also because of injuries and a lack of effectiveness in the other catchers. These two represented the first appearance of a fifth core. Willians Astudillo, a member of the 2019 team who did a little bit of everything a little bit less than optimally and true backup catcher Alex Avila were the only two other new batters who played in the 2020 Wild Card. However, they registered one plate appearance combined. On the pitching side, Berrios was joined by Kenta Maeda, who finished second in the AL Cy Young voting after coming over in a trade that sent Graterol to the Los Angeles Dodgers. There were only two games, so there were only two starting pitchers. Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, and Stashak all returned to throw in the 2020 playoffs, the first four representing the high-leverage portion of the bullpen, but Stashak is best remembered as a cudgel used to criticize Baldelli for bullpen mismanagement. He replaced Berrios in the sixth inning of Game 2, allowing the winning run in his second frame of relief. Minnesota local Caleb Thielbar made his heroic return to the big leagues—after taking a coaching job at Division II Augustana in Sioux Falls—in 2020 and pitched in Game 1. Gibson had left in free agency after 2019, and although Littell and Smeltzer each saw time during the regular season, neither contributed to the Twins' postseason efforts. The count is 18. Returning pieces from 2019: Luis Arraez, José Berríos, Jake Cave, Nelson Cruz, Tyler Duffey, Mitch Garver, Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler, Trevor May, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Cody Stashak New pieces in 2020: Willians Astudillo, Alex Avila, Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirlloff, Kenta Maeda, Caleb Thielbar Italics indicate the player is no longer in the Minnesota Twins organization (2023) Summary and Looking Ahead Props to you for getting this far. It's at nearly 5,000 words. And many painful memories have been drudged through, but I find it fascinating, and I hope you did too. With Joe Pohlad taking the reins of the team as the club's principal owner, there have been three owners since the streak started. The GM position has changed four times. There have been three managers. The last contributors in the 2004 series left the team over a decade ago. Almost all of Joe Mauer's potential Hall of Fame career was encompassed in this streak. Only three players from the 2017 Wild Card are slated to play in the 2023 postseason—Buxton, Kepler, and Polanco—and Buxton doesn't look promising. Kepler and Polanco are the only returning members from the 2019 playoffs. Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Thielbar, Kirilloff, and Jeffers are the members returning from the 2020 squad. The Twins have brought in several veteran depth pieces like Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor—you know their names by now; I won't go through a whole roster again. They have a new, bona fide, archetypal captain placed at the center of the clubhouse in Carlos Correa. They also have more parts of the fifth core making statements. Former number one overall pick Royce Lewis, eagle-eyed French Canadian Superhunk Edouard Julien, and all-around power Minnesotan Matt Wallner have each been considerable additions to this team, and it's starting to be built around them, as the remnants of the fourth core—Buxton, Polanco, and Kepler—begin to age out. This is the fifth core that's had a chance to end the streak. It's frankly absurd. Only two players have been part of four trips to the postseason—Cuddyer and Mauer—and they're long gone. Kepler and Polanco will add their names to that list in 2023. Before this year's postseason, 98 different Twins have played in a postseason game since the last time they registered a win. None of them have been able to break the streak. But let's go back to where we started. Do the Twins really have an 18-game losing streak dating back to 2004? Are these Twins those Twins? They've rebranded twice. They moved out of their old stadium. They're located in a new city. They even replaced their new scoreboard with a new scoreboard. I've heard a lot about the new scoreboard. Regardless of your definition, the organization fully turned over at least once during that time. Is it even accurate to claim that these are the same teams? I know that this type of question has been asked every year for the past decade, along with stats about how old some of the Twins were the last time they won a playoff game, but it's worth pondering what ties one iteration of a team to another. If the only thing that remains of the original team is the name, then why do we care? I wish I had an answer. The Twins have lost 18 straight. I'm not trying to argue against that. That absurdity could have broken my brain to the extent that I'm citing Plutarch on a silly little fan site about grown men donning stirrups and playing games of rounders at the old ballyard. But I hope that you were able to enjoy the trip down memory lane. I know I enjoyed writing this. Let's load up the Friend Ship and set sail. View full article

Things are really starting to change around here, but one thing stays consistent: playoff futility. Image courtesy of Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports This is Part 2 of a series looking at how much the Twins organization has turned over since the beginning of the club's infamous 0-18 streak. For the best reading experience, start with Part 1, which reviews the 2004 and 2006 playoff teams and outlines the concepts and aim of this series. 2009: Sailing Back East The Twins missed the playoffs in 2007 and 2008, though in 2008, that miss resulted from a lost Game 163 tiebreaker against the White Sox. Luckily, they used that Game 163 experience and came out on top of another Game 163 tiebreaker in 2009 to clinch the Central crown. At this point, parts of the team separate from the players started getting replaced. After Terry Ryan's retirement, Bill Smith became the club's general manager. If you're counting that position as a part of the Twins' ship, we have our first turnover of a lead executive. Also, Carl Pohlad passed away early in 2009, and his son, Jim, took control. Although there were only two seasons between 2006 and 2009, almost every piece from the previous series wasn't a factor in the 2009 series. Only Mauer, Cuddyer, Punto, Nathan, and Guerrier had played in 2006. Longtime franchise staples Hunter, Santana, and Radke, who each had captured the hearts of Twins fans in the early parts of the decade were no longer with the team. Hunter left in free agency, Santana was the subject of a long, messy trade season after 2007, and Radke retired after 2006. Kubel played in his first series since 2004, and Francisco Liriano had his playoff debut in 2009 despite being an integral part of the 2006 team in the regular season. Morneau, like would happen in 2010, missed the postseason due to injury. Cuddyer started at first base in his place, his third playoff position in three years (second base, right field, first base). The lineup featured new, young pieces like Denard Span, Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, and backup catcher Jose Morales (not to be confused with LOOGY Jose Mijares, who was also on this squad. This group was supplemented by veterans like Orlando Cabrera—whose deadline acquisition was something of a catalyst for the team— and utility man Brenden Harris. Almost everyone in this offense was developed entirely by the Twins or was traded for early in their careers. Oh, designated hitter Matt Tolbert was there, too. Can't forget Tolbert. The likes of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, and Brian Deuensing replaced Santana, Radke, and Bonser. Nathan was supplemented in the pen by Liriano, Mijares, and Guerrier and a combination of Game 163 11th inning LOOGY hero Ron Mahay and 6'11" tattooed behemoth Jon Rauch. Although less than a quarter of the players who were trounced by the A's in 2006 returned for this series, the Yankees (and Phil Cuzzi) swept the Twins in short order. Only Cuddyer, Kubel, and Nathan faced the Yankees in the 2004 ALDS and again in 2009. Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera played in both for the Yankees, in case you were wondering. The count is at nine. Returning pieces from 2006: Michael Cuddyer, Matt Guerrier, Joe Mauer, Joe Nathan, Nick Punto New pieces in 2006: Nick Blackburn, Orlando Cabrera, Brian Deuensing, Carlos Gomez, Brendan Harris, Jason Kubel, Francisco Liriano, Ron Mahay, Jose Mijares, Jose Morales, Carl Pavano, Jon Rauch, Matt Tolbert, Delmon Young Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year 2010: Redux Guess who's back? That's right, it's a sea battle between the Twins and Yankees in the ALDS. The Twins had a crew reasonably similar to the 2009 squad. Nathan's 2009 injury left Cuddyer as the only player who had played in all four playoffs, though Kubel had also played in 2004 but did not play in 2006, and Jesse Crain played in both 2004 and 2006 but didn't pitch in the 2009 postseason. The Yankees returned Jeter, Rodriquez, Posada, Pettitte, and Rivera from the 2004 series. The Twins swapped one Orlando out for another, parting with Cabrera but signing veteran second baseman Orlando Hudson in the offseason. Four times in four years the Twins now had new second baseman (Cuddyer, Luis Castillo, Punto, and Hudson) and shortstop (Guzman, Bartlett, Cabrera, J.J. Hardy). Hardy came back in a trade that sent away the prize jewel of the Santana trade, Gomez. Other notable changes included one of the greatest year-to-year step-ups you'll find, replacing Brenden Harris with future Hall of Fame slugger Jim Thome at DH. Although Thome's career was winding down, he could still wallop the ball, and his presence was more than welcome. Danny Valencia, then a promising third baseman of the future, had a terrific series for the squad, and Jason Repko, a great name to pull when you're Remembering Some Guys™, also played a role. Scott Baker made his playoff debut as a reliever, and Liriano replaced Nick Blackburn in the playoff rotation instead of relieving as he did in 2009. Matt Capps, Proven Closer™, was a trade deadline acquisition to replace an injured Joe Nathan. Besides Jesse Crain returning to the picture, the only other bullpen difference was Brian Fuentes in place of Mahay, which fits, given their relative obscurity among Twins fans. As could be expected, there was no massive overhaul between playoff teams in back-to-back years. The substantive differences were the loss of Nathan, the Orlando swap, Gomez for Hardy, and the presence of Jim Thome. Otherwise, the turnover was insignificant. The count is 12. Hopefully, the Twins can get a third straight crack at the Damn Yankees in 2011. Returning pieces from 2009: Michael Cuddyer, Brain Deuensing, Matt Guerrier, Jason Kubel, Francisco Liriano, Joe Mauer, Jose Mijares, Carl Pavano, Jon Rauch, Denard Span, Matt Tolbert, Delmon Young New pieces in 2010: Scott Baker, Matt Capps, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes, J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson, Jason Repko, Jim Thome, Danny Valencia Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year 2017: The Ship Sails Again So. A lot happened. As would be expected when a team misses the playoffs for six consecutive seasons, there aren't many similarities. This is to be expected. Six years is enough for an entire successful career in Major League Baseball. Since 2010, Terry Ryan had been given control of the team following Bill Smith's 2011 firing. Ryan was also relieved of his duties in the middle of 2016, replaced by interim general manager Rob Antony before the hire of Thad Levine as the Twin's GM and Derek Falvey as President of Baseball Operations. I'm not great at math, but that's four men who were called GM between trips to the postseason. Longtime manager Ron Gardenhire had also been fired. Hometown hero Paul Molitor took over as the team's skipper. Only Mauer remained from the 2010 team. Crain left the team after the 2010 season, and then Cuddyer and Kubel followed suit after the 2011 season, marking the departures of the remaining Twins who played in the 2004 ALDS when the streak started. If you've been waiting for a golden opportunity to state that the team has officially turned over, here's your chance. New ownership took the helm prior to 2009. Executive and field managers were replaced. No players remained from the 2004 series. And only one player even remained from the 2010 team. Mauer himself wasn't the same. The former MVP catcher was in the waning hours of his career and playing first base. Sure, you could argue that he was part of the streak because he was on the team but injured in 2004, but he played no part in that series. And he's the only connecting unit to that team unless you wanted to include someone like President Dave St. Peter, who plays no part in the on-field matters. It's like replacing every piece of a ship except one board that's getting close to disrepair and another with no functional purpose. And even the board in disrepair didn't come with the ship when you bought it from the ship store. To add to that, an entire core came and went in the intervening years. It could be debated whether an organization can have a core when they are one of the worst teams in the league, but the team was no longer built around the M&M Boys in that stretch. Although the team didn't win, they did have promising pieces that they hoped to form into a competitive team. Even after the exits of assumed building blocks like Span or Young, the entire Twins careers of fan favorites and exciting young players (and All-Stars) like Valencia, Trevor Plouffe, Ben Revere, Brian Dozier, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Eduardo Escobar, Danny Santana, Eduardo Núñez, and Kennys Vargas existed entirely or at least mainly within this window of time. Did I cast a wide net with those names? Yes. Are they all good examples? No. But it was an era of Twins baseball. The team tried to build around that rag-tag group. I think that counts as a separate core. Many well-respected evaluators had big dreams for many of those players. We can skip the specifics of this playoff team that only played one game. Remarkably, they were the first team to go from losing 100 games in one season to making the playoffs in the next—in no small part due to the addition of a second Wild Card team. Many of the above names had played in that one-game Wild Card. Many who played in that Wild Card would go on to play in more playoffs for the Twins. You can see the names below. The count is 13. Returning pieces from 2010: Joe Mauer New pieces in 2017: Ehire Adrianza, Matt Belisle, Jose Berrios, Alan Busenitz, Byron Buxton, Jason Castro, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez, Zack Granite, Robbie Grossman, Trevor Hildenberger, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario, Ervin Santana Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year View full article

What's in a streak? Let's consult everything, from game tape, to Baseball Reference, to Greek philosophy to find out. Get ready to Remember Some Guys™. Image courtesy of Jason Bridge-USA TODAY Sports It's been a long time since the Twins won a playoff game. I don't have to belabor that point. However, allow me to belabor that point. In the last 19 seasons, the Twins have made the playoffs seven separate times. Seven separate teams have taken the field since the last time. When the 2023 playoffs start, five separate, distinct cores will have attempted to win just one playoff game. The first team in this string of futility featured not one but two players born during the John F. Kennedy presidency. One player for the Twins in 2023 was born a month before George W. Bush was elected. It's been a long time. I invite you to come along on this journey with me as we examine the anatomy of the team that has reached a level of playoff futility never seen before, a level that may even reach higher this year. We'll even consult philosophers dead for nearly 2000 years and ask: Have the Twins lost 18 consecutive playoff games? If you haven't already had the thought that Greggory Masterson is the most insufferable Twins Daily contributor you've ever read, you will today. I'm going to discuss one of Baby's First philosophical questions. If you've ever had the misfortune of sitting in an introduction to philosophy course (or worse, watching Marvel's WandaVision), you may have heard of the thought experiment called Theseus's Ship. It goes something like this. Imagine a great wooden ship. Years go by, and it makes many voyages. Occasionally, it needs repairs. Rotten or damaged wood is removed and replaced with new boards. Eventually, all of the original pieces of the ship have been removed and replaced. None of the original pieces of the ship are currently part of the ship. Is this still the same ship, or did it become a new ship? If it became a new ship, at what point did it cease being the old one? When every single original piece was finally removed? When it 50% old and new materials? Is it a new ship every time that a single piece is removed? If it is still the original ship, what if all of the old, original pieces were kept and reassembled back into a ship? Is this newly constructed ship a new one, distinct from the first, even though all of the original pieces are back in place, or do we have two of the same ships? I'm not here to answer those questions. I am here to document the absurdity of the number of boards that have been added and removed from the Twins ship. You can call it whatever you want—the Champion Ship or the Friend Ship are the names I like. Let's start at the beginning. 2004: The Maiden Voyage A bully good crew manned this ship captained by Ron Gardenhire. The Twins were coming off back-to-back-to-back AL Central championships, and they were led by a group who had been there from the first one in 2002, like Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Corey Koskie, and Christian Guzman. Even Matthew LeCroy was still around, and Brad Radke was getting the last out of his shredded arm. This core was the first of five to lead the team unsuccessfully into the belly of the whale. In truth, many were already on the way out, as fellow members of the early 2000s core like Doug Mientiewicz, A.J. Pierzynski, and David Ortiz had already begun the phasing out process. Ironically, the three would each win a championship in 2004 or 2005. Supplementing the core affectionately known as the team that saved baseball in Minnesota or the Get to Know 'em Twins were veterans like 2003 trade deadline hero Shannon Stewart, journeyman catcher Henry Blanco—who was thrust into the starting role after an early injury to then-rookie 21-year-old Joe Mauer—and pinch-hitting extraordinaire Jose Offerman. A second core was beginning to emerge with players like Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer—who played second base down the stretch that year—and a pre-wrecked-knee Jason Kubel—who batted six times as a DH in Game 2. Also along for the ride were batters thought to be part of the following core like Luis Rivas and Lew Ford, neither of whom had terribly productive careers with Minnesota after 2004, though Ford received MVP votes that year and had a solid 2005. On the pitching side, supplementing Radke was a crew of Cy Young Johan Santana, Kyle Lohse, and Carlos Silva, who each took wildly different career paths following 2004. In the bullpen, Joe Nathan was beginning his reign as one of the top closers in the game behind Mariano Rivera. Other notable names in that pen were J.C. Romero, Juan Rincon, and Jesse Crain. Oh, there was also Terry Mulholland, a great name to know if you're into Immaculate Grid. The wily veteran served as the team's long reliever and spot starter. He predates the Kennedy assassination, and when paired with backup-backup-backup catcher Pat Borders—who was also born before the incident at the grassy knoll—he was the pitching side to a battery whose ages added up to the third-highest number of any pitcher-catcher combo in MLB history. Also, Borders was the MVP of the 1992 World Series. That's a lot of names, and with the Twins coming off three consecutive division crowns, the sky was the limit. Twins who played in the 2004 ALDS: Grant Balfour, Henry Blanco, Pat Borders, Jesse Crain, Michael Cuddyer, Lew Ford, Christian Guzman, Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Corey Koskie, Jason Kubel, Matt LeCroy, Kyle Lohse, Justin Morneau, Terry Mulholland, Joe Nathan, Jose Offerman, Brad Radke Juan Rincon, Luis Rivas, J.C. Romero, Johan Santana, Shannon Stewart Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year 2006: Sunk in the Bay After something of a disaster in 2005, the Twins bounced back in 2006 to secure their fourth division championship in five years. However, the years were already showing on the construction of the ship. Of the 24 players who appeared in the 2004 ALDS, only nine returned to the field for the 2006 playoffs—Hunter, Morneau, Cuddyer, Ford, Santana, Radke, Nathan, Crain, and Rincon. Technically Ruben Sierra could have made the cut, as he was a member of the 2004 Yankees (as you may well remember), but he didn't make it to the end of the year with the Twins. In truth, Mauer and cult hero Nick Punto were members of the 2004 team but were injured before the 2004 playoffs. Likewise, Kubel did not play in the 2006 playoffs, but he would return in the following years. You can make your own judgments on whether those count as continuous pieces. Luis Castillo and Rondell White—the closest Terry Ryan got to acquiring hitmen—made their only appearances for the Twins in the playoffs this year. A bit more obscure were Phil Nevin's three plate appearances. This is your reminder that Phil Nevin was a Twin and that he played in a playoff game for them. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the man who played DH and hit 8th instead of Nevin in the final two games—Jason Tyner. On the pitching side, much looked similar regarding the most notable names from 2004. Still, Matt Guerrier and standard-issue bullpen goofballs (big LOOGY) Dennys Reyes and (submarine pitcher) Pat Neshek made appearances. While I have you here, look up Dennys Reyes's statistics as a Twin. He was way better than you remember. Folk hero and September Rookie of the Month Boo(ooooooooooo)f Bonser replaced Silva in the rotation, pitching Game 2 Radke's final MLB appearance came in the third game, pitching with half an arm and enough cortisone in his body to kill a horse. 2006 also featured a third of an inning pitched by a rookie, 23-year-old Glen Perkins, who would never throw another pitch in the playoffs. Sadly, these were the last playoffs in Minnesota for Santana, Hunter, and Morneau. Morneau's case is unfortunate, as although he was a Twin in 2009 and 2010, injuries kept him out of the playoffs both years. 2006 was the last time Twins fans could watch him swing it in the postseason for their hometown team. By now, the only remaining leading cast members of the early 2000s teams were Radke and Hunter. Sure, some players like Santana and Cuddyer were around in those days, but they weren't the faces of the franchise. At this point, the focus had turned to the core built around the M&M Boys: Mauer and Morneau. But, for the first time in this streak, the Twins were swept. They couldn't muster even one win like they had in 2004. The count is at six. Returning pieces from 2004: Jesse Crain, Michael Cuddyer, Lew Ford, Torii Hunter, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, Brad Radke, Juan Rincon, Johan Santana New pieces in 2006: Jason Bartlett, Boof Bonser, Luis Castillo, Matt Guerrier, Joe Mauer, Pat Neshek, Phil Nevin, Glen Perkins, Nick Punto, Dennys Reyes, Jason Tyner, Rondell White Italics indicate the player never appeared in the playoffs for Minnesota after this year Look out for part two, which will cover 2009-2017. View full article

Pinch-hitting was a disaster for the Twins at the beginning of the year. However, they're still one of the best teams in the league at it. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports If you ask a Twins fan, “What does Rocco Baldelli love more than anything else?” you’ll probably hear some form of “make substitutions” as a response. Depending on the fan, that response could have any level of emotion to it. Love it or hate it, Rocco loves himself some substitutions. His strategy of trying to win right now—with less concern about what will happen later in the game—has led to the Twins pinch-hitting the third most times in the league in 2023 (and the tenth most pinch-running). He especially likes platoon swaps in-game, sometimes rolling out total line changes when the opponent brings in a left-handed reliever with as many as four pinch hitters. The rationale is straightforward. Left-handed hitters struggle against left-handed pitchers. The lefty greats are usable against same-handed pitchers, but none can do nearly the same amount of damage that they can against righties. Even an average righty hitter could be the better choice in that case. Those average righties can start against left-handed pitchers, too. After the opposing lefty leaves, a manager can bring in all of the left-handed hitters and maintain a strong lineup. Baldelli has undoubtedly bought into that idea. As early as Opening Day, the play was on. In the sixth inning, Kyle Farmer hit for Nick Gordon against lefty Amir Garrett and walked. Donovan Solano then hit for Joey Gallo and singled, driving in Trevor Larnach for the season’s first run. They finished the last four innings at second and first base, respectively. The strategy was off to a good start. After Opening Day, though: yeesh. In a June 30th mailbag, Athletic writer Aaron Gleeman reported that although the Twins had used the second-most pinch hitters in MLB to that point in the season (91 in 82 games), they ranked 26th in OPS at a paltry .496. That’s a pretty abysmal performance. For reference, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien—players who have essentially been banned from hitting against lefties this season—have a .470 and .452 OPS against left-handed pitchers, respectively. They were only marginally worse than all pinch hitters to that point in the season. Against lefties specifically, Minnesota had the 28th-highest OPS from pinch hitters: .490. At that point, fans and team personnel had to question whether the lineup jumbling and complicated role structure on the team was worth the effort. Why not just let the young lefties play the whole game? Did they need to go through all this effort just to get a different version of a bad result? Fast-forward to mid-September. It’s been two and a half months since that low point. The Twins currently have a .723 OPS from their pinch hitters on the season, just a hair under the MLB average for all hitters. That’s good for eighth in the league. Somehow, after all that struggle and consternation, the Twins have cracked the top ten. From the beginning of July through September 15th, Twins pinch hitters had 80 plate appearances (third in MLB) with a .997 OPS (second in MLB) and a 170 wRC+ (best in MLB). Their pinch hitters have been on an absolute tear. That includes a .785 OPS (sixth in MLB) against lefties from their pinch hitters. Now, 80 plate appearances is little to go off. It’s a month’s worth of plate appearances for a full-time player. However, it does provide hope that the big-bench, pinch-hitting approach can work in the playoffs. 11 different players had pinch-hit since the beginning of July, and only Solano, Matt Wallner, and Christian Vazquez had an OPS below .750 during that time. Admittedly, fans can count on one hand the number of times many of the names at the top of the list have pinch-hit—two for Jorge Polanco, three for Ryan Jeffers, and so on. However, other than Donovan Solano (11 plate appearances), who has otherwise been the paragon of consistency on this team, the guys the Twins will look to as pinch hitters have performed well. Jordan Luplow (11 PA) and Kyle Farmer (10 PA) will be looked to mid-game against lefties, and they have a 1.260 and .800 OPS, respectively, as pinch hitters. Edouard Julien (11 PA) would be considered a substitution if he sits against a lefty starter, and he’s had a .909 OPS as a pinch hitter since the beginning of July. Of course, these are small samples, and dividing it amongst individual hitters isn’t an entirely meaningful analytical exercise. However, the practice of pinch-hitting has helped the team throughout the year, especially in the second half. There is reason to feel trepidation about Baldelli opening up his bench during playoff games. An early move that doesn’t work out can kneecap a team later in the game. There is a general pinch-hitter penalty for batters, as coming in cold off the bench isn’t an ideal way to prepare for a plate appearance. However, it’s been working lately. Some have suggested that players have adapted to the unorthodox style, and there’s something to be said for a learning curve. No one truly has a day off on these Twins teams. If it’s a system that a player is unfamiliar with, it might take a while to adjust. In this small sample, they have adjusted. Or it’s just noise. I won’t sit here and declare it fixed or a brilliant strategy. It’s just worth remembering that the practice hasn’t been as comically bad as it initially seemed. In the Wild Card, there might be a total of five such pinch hits. Who knows if it will actually work, but recent performance has me hopeful that it will. View full article

You’re absolutely right; on reread that part came off more flippant than I’d intended. Vazquez is an awesome piece to have, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he catches all of López or Ryan’s games. One of the top reserve catchers in the game.

I considered adding Gordon or Miranda, or even Larnach, but I had them in the Celestino bucket. If we haven't heard from them in months, I don't think they have much of a chance on the roster, especially if their skillsets are redundant. Gordon is another Castro, and probably a worse one. Miranda and Larnach don't bring anything that benefits a team situationally. Celestino only makes the list because he's right-handed. I think if there's a surprise, non-40 man guy called up for the playoffs it will be Martin. Similar rationale to Stevenson/Celestino: second pinch runner, good defensive left fielder if needed. He'd also bring an emergency infielder and would probably rank between Castro and Solano at second base there.

"I understand you don't want to hear about his exit velocity and launch angle. What if I told you his Hitting the Snot Outta the Ball is in the 67th percentile?"

As we start looking ahead to the postseason, the Twins have a strength that they lacked in recent playoff appearances: a functional bench. Any one of their many role players may be why they finally win in the playoffs. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports Now, I won’t go so far as to say that the Twins’ bench is Built for October™. However, postseason depth is much, much different than regular season depth. Come October, teams with a talented bench don’t necessarily have a useful bench. Consider 2019-2020 super-utility man Marwin Gonzalez for a recent Twins example. In his prime, Gonzalez was a manager’s dream in the regular season. He could be penciled in almost everywhere, almost every night, and provide a competent bat and glove for 130 games a year. He might even be a mainstay at one spot due to injury—as he was in the opening months of 2019 filling in for the injured Miguel Sano. Competent bats and fielders—high-end backups—see little time in the playoffs. They’re regular-season depth. Without injuries, Rocco Baldelli would have had little use for those skills. The likes of Jarrod Dyson, Billy Hamilton, and Terrance Gore, blazing-fast base-stealers with little else in the way of value, are where the money is at. In 2019, the Twins ALDS bench consisted of Jason Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Ehire Adrianza, and Jake Cave. Of course, every team will carry a backup catcher, justifying Castro’s presence. Schoop was the best bat of the group, but he only played second base and could have been a pinch-hitting option. However, few players could be justifiably lifted from the starting lineup, even against lefty pitching, which Schoop had a .908 OPS against. Subbing him in in Game 2 required Luis Arraez to move to third base, Sano to first, and Gonzalez to left field. Adrianza and Cave were competent backups in the infield and outfield, respectively. However, without an injury, there was little use for them other than Adrianza as a defensive replacement or Cave as a pinch runner (and not a top-tier one). In 2020, the Twins had a larger bench, though an arguably less useful one—Alex Avila, a hobbled Mitch Garver, Willians Astudillo, Adrianza, Cave, and Alex Kirilloff. Three catchers. Ironically, they all played in Game 1, as Ryan Jeffers started and was pinch hit for by Garver, who was replaced by Avila to actually catch until Astudillo pinch hit and grounded into the most predictable game-ending ground play this side of 2023 Carlos Correa. Astudillo was the most helpful piece on that bench, as he could perform a precise role: putting the ball in play. Adrianza, Cave, and Kirilloff (who had no MLB plate appearances then) could each be relied on as an injury (or Eddie Rosario ejection) replacement. Hopefully, the point is evident here. The Twins didn’t have situationally functional pieces on their bench. They arguably had a better lineup in those years than they have this year, but a functional bench is an advantage for any playoff team. Enough about the past. What could a playoff bench look like in 2023? Depending on how many pitchers the team chooses to carry in the Wild Card round, they could have up to an eight-man bench (three starting pitchers, six relief pitchers, nine in the starting lineup, and eight on the bench). More realistically, they might carry five or six for the Wild Card round. Here are the options: Christian Vazquez As the backup catcher, Vazquez is a lock for the roster. Every team needs at least two catchers. Beyond that (I’m warning everyone reading this), Ryan Jeffers probably won’t start three games in a row, whenever or wherever that happens. Vazquez is the inferior catcher, but he will probably start at least one game. Michael A. Taylor Taylor has been the primary center fielder due to Byron Buxton’s injuries, and a betting man would lean toward him still being in that role in the postseason. I’m listing him here on the off chance Buxton returns. Taylor will be a quality pinch runner, and he could be subbed in to play left field alongside Buxton and Max Kepler as a late-game, elite defensive replacement in left field. Willi Castro Castro is the third of five seeming locks to be on the roster. He’s enabled of manager Rocco Baldelli’s shenanigans all year, and his ability to pinch run could be crucial, as he’s a great runner with more than 30 stolen bases. He’s also a competent fielder, so if the defense needs to be jumbled up for any reason, he can patch it up. Kyle Farmer Farmer could fall into the Adrianza bucket—a good glove in the infield. However, he also has a history of hammering left-handed pitching and is on a tear recently. Many don’t want to hear this, but he’ll probably start against a lefty over Edouard Julien, pinch hit for him against a lefty reliever, or finish the game at second base (if, for some reason, Julien needs to start there instead of as the designated hitter). Joey Gallo Kidding. Foot injury or something. Donovan Solano Thus far, there hasn’t been a bona fide pinch hitter discussed, but Donnie Barrels is the man for the job. The fifth lock to make the roster, he’s as trusted a pinch-hitter as a team can ask for against a righty or lefty. Beyond that, he’ll likely start at first base if the Twins face a lefty starter. Jordan Luplow We’re getting into the more questionable choices, but don’t be surprised in the least if Luplow makes the roster as a right-handed outfield option. If he is on the roster, he’ll probably start in left field against lefties and bat in the top half. You can kick and scream about it, but please don’t take your anger out on me; I’m just the messenger. I also think it’s reasonable, but I’m still just the messenger. Andrew Stevenson Stevenson is probably the least likely to make the roster among those who still have a chance. If Taylor indeed starts in center field, Stevenson might be given a spot in a similar role. He could be a second pinch-running option behind Castro and a late-game defensive replacement in left. Gilberto Celestino Celestino was called up to Minnesota for the first time in 2023 on Sunday. He originally wasn’t on this list, but if he’s up now, he may be a right-handed alternative to Stevenson. I’d give him minimal odds unless additional injuries force him into said role. Now, I won’t sit here and say that having a bunch of useful tools makes a team a World Series contender. Nonetheless, any one of these players could reasonably be used in a position that decides whether or not the Twins win or lose a game. There’s depth at each position, but there are also pinch runners, platoon hitters, and defensive replacements that can give a slight edge to a team that they would otherwise lack. Every edge matters in October. Let’s see some moves, Rocco. View full article

I didn't spend much time discussing Correa's elite defense because that wasn't what I was writing about. I could have also written about his reported leadership skills or how he's hitting .400 in September, but that wasn't my goal. It's worth appreciating just how historically absurd his GIDP numbers are this year. At no point did I disparage him in this. Simmons is actually a great comp for Correa at this point in his career. They both make up (made up, in Simmons's case) for suboptimal lateral quickness as a shortstop with elite arms by playing further back in the infield to give them more time to make the play. Simmons spent 5 years as the best defensive shortstop in baseball and received Ozzie Smith comparisons for his ability to prevent runs. Comparing Correa to Simmons defensively is not a knock on Correa.

Just one year into the largest contract ever given out by the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Correa is chasing history. His performance over the next few weeks can etch his name into the record books. Image courtesy of Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa has a double-play problem. He's addicted to them. Not only can his cannon of an arm turn some impressive double plays on defense (he's sitting at 47 turned thus far in the season), but he's also on pace to ground into more than 30 of them. If you're unaware of how monumental that number is, only 18 times in MLB history has a player hit into 30 double plays in a season. Correa sits at 29, tied at 19th all-time with 13 others. He already sits atop the Twins all-time single-season record book, having passed Trevor Plouffe and Harmon Killebrew last week. There are 22 games left in the season. He's on pace to hit into 34 double plays, which would land him in sole possession of third place on the all-time list. The record is 36, held by 1978 American League MVP Jim Rice, who set it in 1984 and followed it with a season that landed him at second all-time with 35 in 1985. Rice was an All-Star in both those years and those preceding and following—1983 and 1986. He won a Silver Slugger in 1984, hitting .280 with 28 home runs and 102 RBI. Some of that was likely due to his reputation, but he still graded out 12% above a league-average hitter by OPS+. Grounding into a lot of double plays isn't necessarily an indictment of a player's talent. Rice was an MVP and occupies the top two spots. Cal Ripken Jr. (1985) and Miguel Tejada (2008) are among those tied for third at 32, though they're tied with the likes of Billy Butler (2010) and Ben Grieve (2000), players for whom no one is anticipating a trip to Cooperstown. The all-time career record book for double plays hit into is adorned with some of the greatest of all time. It takes a long career to hit into 426 double plays as Albert Pujols did. Among the top five are Miguel Cabrera and Hank Aaron, two of the greatest righthanded hitters of all time; Ivan Rodriguez; and Ripken. In six years, all five of those players will be enshrined in Cooperstown. In addition to their long careers, the four share a few commonalities: they were slow, right-handed hitters who hit the living snot out of the ball. Carlos Correa shares those same traits. He's a righty (meaning he starts a few feet farther from first base than a lefty does) who is in the top third of the league in hitting the snot out of the ball (which makes it easier to turn double plays when the ball is fielded in the infield) and in the bottom third of the league in speed. Correa hasn't always had a double-play problem, though. The most he'd ever hit into in a season was 18 in 2022. He's on pace to almost double that figure this year. So, what's changed? Correa hasn't necessarily been fast since around the 2016 season, according to Statcast. From 2017 to 2019, he was consistently ranked in the top third of the league, though right on the edge around the 67th percentile in sprint speed. As he's aged, he's gotten slower, having been right around league average for the past couple of years. The wheels have come off this year, though, no pun intended. Correa has dropped into the bottom third of the league in sprint speed, in no small part due to his season-long battle with plantar fasciitis—an injury to a ligament in the bottom of his foot that is quite painful. However, it's not like he's walking to first base. Being slower than 67% of the league can only explain some things. If it could, there would be 100 other players alongside him. Ty France of the Mariners has the second most this year—24. He's hitting the ball hard, as well. His average exit velocity (90.3) and hard-hit percentage (45.9%) rank in the league's top third. The exit velocity is on par with his career norms, though the hard-hit percentage—meaning balls hit over 95 miles per hour—is the highest of his career and over 3% higher than his career average. He's hitting the ball about as hard as usual, if not harder. Other aspects of his batted ball profile have mostly stayed the same. His average launch angle is lower than in recent years (10.4) but right on track with his career averages (10.3). There's a lot of noise in average launch angle because it's averaging a bunch of different types of hits, but he's also hitting groundballs, the type that turns into double plays, at a similar rate to his career norms (46.7% vs. 45.6%). Correa's spray charts largely look similar as well, as the rate at which he's pulled the ball, hits it up the middle, or goes to the opposite field is within 1% of his career averages. It's difficult to pinpoint why he's grounded into a comical number of double plays. But maybe that's what this is—a comedy. Of course, the year Correa signs the biggest deal in team history, he develops an injury that hobbles his already diminished speed. Of course, he's hitting the ball like usual, and middle infielders are catching them. Of course, it's happening with guys on base. Who would have written it any other way? There's a lot of luck in setting any record. Don't let anyone tell you otherwise. They're abnormalities. Sometimes, that luck is bad. Sometimes, that bad luck accompanies plantar fasciitis, hitching a trailer to the sports car tumbling down a bad luck road. Me? I'm here for the ride: next stop, 36, Chuck. AUTHOR EDIT: A couple of early comments noted that I left out situational performance in this piece. Thank you to @PDX Twin and @Brandon. I did a quick dig and found some interesting information. Correa is not hitting with runners on and less than two outs any less than he normally does. However, he's hitting groundballs in those situations at an uncharacteristic 62.2%, which is a 50% increase over his career average in those situations: 43.5%. It really could just come down to hitting more grounders in those situations. Great catch, and thank you to both of you who asked for more data. View full article

Willi Castro has spent a year enabling all of Rocco Baldelli’s in-game shenanigans, and losing him—even temporarily—will send ripples down the roster. Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports “Willi’s is the key to all this.” – Rocco Baldelli, probably. On Monday, the Twins announced that Royce Lewis would be making his return from an oblique injury that had him sidelined since July 1st. The bad news was that Willi Castro would hit the injured list with an oblique injury of his own—through a lesser strain than the one that sidelined Lewis for six weeks. Castro was a mere afterthought at the season’s onset—a non-roster invitee on a minor-league contract. However, the Twins saw something in the then-25-year-old, as the contract was worth $1.8 million. Castro wasn’t a standard minor league signing, as he still had three full years of team control after spending parts of four seasons in Detroit. If the toolsy, versatile player could carve out a role on the MLB team, he would be quite the asset. He carved out a role he has, but it wasn’t apparent that he would. Originally added to the active roster ahead of Opening Day as a placeholder for injured players Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff, Castro didn’t see any action until the end of the fourth game of the year, replacing Carlos Correa in an 11-1 blowout against the Marlins. Through 10 games, he had played in four—starting only three. On some teams, that usage would be expected of the last guy on the bench, but it’s undoubtedly not Baldelli’s style. It probably indicated that the team saw him as a non-factor, break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option with his switch-hitting and ability to play anywhere. He played more as the season went along, generally used as a late-game replacement. Through May 11th (37 games), he had appeared in 26 games, starting only 12, and entered the game in the seventh inning or later 12 times. He also struggled, posting a .186/.300/.302 (.602) slash line with one home run in 50 plate appearances. His name was often thrown around by commentators as a candidate for demotion whenever another player returned from the injured list. Somehow—mainly as a result of other players on the active roster getting hurt before he headed to the chopping block—he kept his spot with the big league team. He also got hot at the right time. From April 30th to June 1st, he was one of the few bright spots on a team struggling offensively, slashing .329/.358/.500 (.858), stealing 10 bases in 11 attempts and playing six positions. Through that stretch, he managed to carve out a niche and, since, has rarely had his role questioned. Baldelli has also grown attached to utilizing his skillset. One might even say that Castro is the key to all of Baldelli’s chicanery this season. He has become infamous—or famous, depending on your stance—for tinkering in-game and playing matchups. Castro brings several skills that can help in these endeavors. First, he can play everywhere. In 2023, he has appeared at third base, second base, shortstop, all three outfield positions, and even pitcher on two occasions, drawing starts at all those positions other than shortstop and pitcher. If there’s a hole in the lineup card, Castro can fill it. He’s also a switch-hitter, which allows him to start games in the outfield against left-handed starters, giving one of the left-handed Twins corner outfielders a break. He’s posted a meager .670 OPS against left-handed starters, but he fills the role that Baldelli seeks. Those bits are good, but he mainly enables Baldelli’s deepest, darkest impulses after the first pitch has been thrown. Castro is the Band-Aid to any move Baldelli wants to make. If Baldelli wants to pinch-hit Donovan Solano for Max Kepler against a tough lefty reliever, he can move Castro from third base to right field. If he wants to hit Edouard Julien for Michael A. Taylor, Castro can move from second base to center field to make it happen. Are Kepler, Kirilloff, Joey Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner suddenly all in the lineup together? No worries, just sub Castro in for one of them and put him wherever the open spot in the defense is. Sure, Castro has had his share of pinch-hitting himself, as he’s pinch-hit 11 times, but he’s more likely to solve problems caused by other substitutions. He’s also pinch-run nine times, and his 29 stolen bases in 33 tries have also been a valuable asset. He’s been put to use whether he starts or enters later in the game. In fact, between May 10th and July 16th, he played in 54 of 56 games, starting only 41 of them. There have only been 22 games, as of August 18th, that Castro hasn’t played at all. Five of those games have been since his injury. He’s played 101 of 123 games but only started 71 of them. He has entered the game late or switched positions in the field 59 times this season. He’s also thrived in the role, relatively. The bar will always be lower for a role player like Castro. Still, he’s stolen bases at a remarkable clip and has a respectable (for a utility player) 94 wRC+ (six percent below an average hitter). He’s provided solid defense at each position he’s played (OAA and DRS both have him at a -2 in center field, his lowest ratings, but he only had 121 MLB innings before 2023 and hasn’t been bad there). He’s certainly been worth the $1.8 million paycheck. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs project him to finish with a WAR around 2, about a league-average starter, though his injury may offset that. For comparison, consider a player like Marwin Gonzalez, tabbed as a high-end super-utility player in 2019 and 2020. Gonzalez played a crucial role in the 2019 season, putting up an OPS+ of 94, right on par with Castro this year. Castro beats Gonzalez out in defensive versatility and base running, though. The Twins gladly paid Gonzalez $12 million that year, seven times what Castro was paid for 2023. Pound-for-pound Castro’s signing probably resulted in the best value that the team got this offseason. Competent Swiss Army knives are difficult to find (look no further than the extended look that Willians Astudillo got), and Castro has filled that role better than almost anyone would have expected. No one would say he’s a top-15 player on the team, but he’s done his job. At no point during the offseason would anyone have expected Willi Castro’s presence to be so valuable, but Baldelli will be hamstrung in the coming weeks without his Get Out Of Lineup Jail Free card. If you believe his moving and shaking is more than it’s worth, maybe the injury will relieve you, but Baldelli will need to think a little harder for now. View full article

I just re-read this, and I disagree that there were any positive statements made about Gallo, other than that he's seen as a better offensive player than the guys they have had in center. I'd go so far as to say there were negative comments snuck in about him We'll see how much longer Gallo is around. I'm sure by August 2nd we'll have some clarity I hope they appear soon, but that's what it seems like they're looking for in these lineups.

“(Defensive) WAR, what is it good for?” seems to be the question on the Twins’ minds as they roll out lineups with big bats and questionable gloves. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports At long last, Joey Gallo has been starting in center field for the Twins. It solves, at least for now, the problem that fans have been wondering about for most of the season—how can the Twins fit all these corner outfielders into the lineup? On Monday and Tuesday, the Twins starting lineup featured Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Gallo—five left-handed corner outfielders. Trying to fit each of them into the lineup consistently has been a problem for the Twins, and this week they finally bit the bullet and sacrificed offense for defense. Now, there’s an argument to be made that Joey Gallo’s offense isn’t better than Michael A. Taylor’s at this point (or even Kyle Farmer’s at third, where Willi Castro started both of those days). Still, it’s clear what the Twins are trying to do: add beef to a lineup that ranks 16th in OPS+ (and, specifically, 27th among centerfielders). Building off of that, Jorge Polanco is returned to the team Friday night after a stint on the injured list, and he’s been playing third base so that the Twins can keep both his bat and second baseman Edouard Julien’s in the lineup. Since Royce Lewis’s oblique injury, the team has trotted out Farmer, Castro, and Donovan Solano at the hot corner, which has produced subpar offensive results. A lineup with Gallo in centerfield (for however long that lasts), Wallner in left, Julien at second, and Polanco at third will provide questionable defense at best, but that seems like a risk that the Twins are willing to take to get offense from this lineup. Before the All-Star Break, the Twins averaged 4.18 runs per game, but after the break, through July 26th, they averaged 5.92 runs per game. They also boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league, who lead the league in strikeouts and are third in ERA. Batters always have an outsized ability to provide value offensively over defensively. It’s why players like Gary Sheffield, complete butchers in the field, were able to have long and borderline Hall of Fame careers. For the Twins, a team whose pitchers lead the league in strikeouts, defensive value is further diminished because fewer balls are in play each game. Even with Gold Glovers in Carlos Correa, Gallo, and Taylor, the Twins have been middling to below average defensively this year (-10 OAA, 27 DRS, for the nerds out there) while sitting in the bottom half of the league offensively. Thus, the team would be willing at least to entertain offense-heavy lineups at the cost of defense. However, we don’t need to expect a cobbled-together, slapdash, Swiss cheese defense all game. Rocco Baldelli has become notorious for using in-game moves—mostly pinch-hitting for platoon purposes. However, he’s also willing to bring in defensive replacements late in the game. He’s primarily been comfortable bringing Julien out of the game and getting Taylor into centerfield to shore up the defense, sometimes in the same move. As a strategy, there’s merit. They can open the game with the best offensive lineup possible and try to score runs early. As the game goes into the final innings, they can pull players like Julien and Wallner for better defenders in Kyler Farmer and Taylor to secure the win. Players like Donovan Solano are still available to pinch hit during the game and take over a position in the field that fits with the rest of the team. There’s a limit to this strategy, though. If the bullpen blows a late lead, exciting bats like Wallner and Julien would have been removed from the game, and Taylor or Farmer, far worse offensive players, might be counted on for big plate appearances in close games, as Farmer was on Friday night. However, when the alternative is Julien playing second base and Wallner finishing a game in left field, where his monster arm is less valuable, it’s difficult not to pull the trigger on a defensive sub. It’s the risk run with a reliance on poor defenders to provide offense. Even Ryan Jeffers, who is seen as a lesser defender than Christian Vazquez but a vastly superior offensive player, has been getting more playing time lately. With trade targets like Lane Thomas, Tommy Pham, or Mark Canha, who are not outstanding defenders in the corners but could technically play center field (each has had a handful of starts there over the last few years but is getting older), this strategy could continue. There would inevitably be a negative effect on runs allowed per game, but the team might stomach that, given how well the pitchers have performed thus far. Dropping a few slots in ERA might be worth improving the offense to a top-10 unit. Of course, that’s still incumbent on the offensive players hitting well enough to make up for their shoddy defense (read: Joey Gallo or trade acquisitions in center), but if the team is desperate enough for offense, we might see this plan played out in more than a few games down the stretch. View full article

As we approach the deadline and the Minnesota Twins lead the AL Central despite only being a handful of games over .500, some fans are considering the value of selling high on some players. What can trade history tell us about that? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are in a weird position. They lead a poor AL Central but are projected to have a record that rarely gets a team into the playoffs. Because of this, many fans are interested in trading away veterans on expiring contracts for prospect capital. Many teams will swap their veterans for prospects to ensure they don’t walk for free; the Rays are notorious for that, for instance. It’s an understandable instinct. However, teams competing for a playoff spot rarely do it at the trade deadline. Current value is sometimes forgotten in the quest to retain as much value as possible on a player with one foot out the door. To draw a name out of a hat for no particular reason, as an example, Sonny Gray is valuable as a playoff starter, and he’ll make valuable starts down the stretch in the pennant race, even if he pitches elsewhere next year. Beyond that value, we tend to view swaps for prospects with outsized optimism. When Jose Berrios was traded, the hope was that Simeon Woods Richardson could become another Berrios. However, that doesn’t always turn out. It’s good to have an eye on the future, but the value of the trade needs to outweigh the value of having the veteran during the most important games of the year. The teams without playoff aspirations don’t have to worry about that. Playoff-bound teams do. With that in mind, it’s worth discussing the value that can come back in trade. Let’s take a look at the returns that the Twins have gotten from shipping players off at the deadline during the Falvey-Levine era. They've been moderately successful in selling at the deadline, but would that support an effort to cut loose some veterans before the stretch run? Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information was gathered as a snapshot on July 17, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to provide some information about the outcome and context. For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2018 Ryan Pressly trade. Statistically, the Twins lost the trade. However, Pressly would not have been extended in Minnesota, and he brought his game to a new level after the trade—a level he probably wouldn’t have in Minnesota. He’s also been in Houston racking up value for six years. That level of performance wasn’t expected out of him, and getting back two Major League contributors in Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino—even if they aren’t stars—is a favorable return for a relief pitcher, regardless of how good he is. There’s a gray area. Without further ado, here’s my order, from most valuable return (with consideration for the quality of the player traded away) to least valuable. 1. 7/22/21: Minnesota acquires Joe Ryan* (286 IP, 112 ERA+, 4.3 bWAR), Drew Strotman (did not reach Minnesota) from Tampa Bay for Nelson Cruz (238 PA, 101 OPS+, 0.4 bWAR), Calvin Faucher* (40.1 IP, 74 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR), +4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. This one hurt, as Cruz was a fan favorite and the leader of the greatest power offense in baseball history, but it’s turned out better than most could imagine. Although Strotman washed out of the organization in 2022, Ryan has emerged as a mid-rotation starter who continues to improve. To get Ryan, the Twins gave up two months of Cruz, who was merely league-average for the Rays, and Faucher has struggled during his two years of MLB experience. 2. 7/27/18: Minnesota acquires Jhoan Duran* (105 IP, 207 ERA+, 4.3 bWAR), Ernie De La Trinidad (did not reach Minnesota), Gabriel Maciel (did not reach Minnesota) from Arizona for Eduardo Escobar (1544 PA, 102 OPS+, 5.6 bWAR), -1.3 bWAR for Minnesota. Escobar was a solid regular and fan favorite for the Twins on an expiring contract, and he signed a three-year extension with Arizona after the trade, continuing to be a contributor at multiple positions. De La Trinidad and Maciel are in independent ball and Oakland’s High-A team, respectively. Jhoan Duran has been an electric late-inning reliever since his debut in 2022, and he appears to be a fixture in the organization for the better part of the next decade. 3. 7/31/18: Minnesota acquires Logan Forsythe (205 PA, 81 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR), Luke Raley (did not reach Minnesota), Devin Smeltzer (140 IP, 106 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brian Dozier (170 PA, 77 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR), +1.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Brian Dozier was sadly on the wrong side of 30 and in the middle of a pedestrian year, and many saw that the end was near. Forsythe was acquired to finish the year in Dozier’s spot at second base, and Luke Raley was later traded back to LA in the Kenta Maeda trade. Devin Smeltzer was a feel-good story who filled a swingman role on some good Twins teams over four years. 4. 7/28/18: Minnesota acquires Gilberto Celestino* (409 PA, 70 OPS+, -0.3 bWAR), Jorge Alcala* (103 IP, 113 ERA+, 0.6 bWAR) from Houston for Ryan Pressly* (252.1 IP, 174 ERA+, 6.3 bWAR), -6 bWAR for Minnesota. One that got away, Pressly has made two All-Star Games in Houston since the trade and the Astros extended him. Alcala has shown flashes as a late-inning arm, but his future is uncertain following season-ending elbow surgery in 2022. Celestino was rushed to the majors in 2021 and is now getting some much-needed time in AAA, though some believe he can still be a fourth outfielder. 5. 7/30/17: Minnesota acquires Zack Littell (63.2 IP, 99 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Dietrich Enns (4.0 IP, 71 ERA+, -0.1 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Jaime Garcia (37.1 IP, 94 ERA+, -0.1 bWAR), +0.1 bWAR for Minnesota. After deciding that maybe they shouldn’t go for it, the Twins traded Jaime Garcia to New York and retained his salary. In return for 37 1/3 mediocre innings from Garcia, who retired the following year, Minnesota received Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns. Littell was a solid enough reliever for three years until being designated for assignment after 2020, and Enns has been unremarkable outside of a pop-up year in 2021 for Tampa Bay. 6. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires Simeon Woods Richardson * (9.2 IP, 67 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Austin Martin* (has not reached Minnesota) from Toronto for Jose Berrios* (355.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 2.6 bWAR), -0.9 bWAR for Minnesota. We’re years away from knowing who won this trade, and it could get much better or much worse, hence its middling position in this ranking. Jose Berrios quickly signed a seven-year, $131 million extension with Toronto, but has struggled mightily in 2022 before his extension kicked in, and he’s returned to form in 2023. Woods Richardson has brief experience as a spot starter and long reliever, and Martin is currently on rehabbing a UCL injury following a disappointing 2022 in AA. 7. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires John Gant (33.2 IP, 76 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), Evan Sisk (did not reach Minnesota) from Cincinnati for J.A. Happ (54 IP, 98 ERA+, 0.7 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. This trade was a salary dump to salvage some money from Happ. Gant came over to offset some of the salary and fill a rotation slot, and he was not offered arbitration after the season. Evan Sisk was part of the trade that brought Michael A. Taylor to Minnesota prior to 2023. It was impressive to get anything of value in the trade, given Happ's struggles in Minnesota. 8. 7/30/18: Minnesota acquires Tyler Austin (141 PA, 110 OPS+, 0.3 bWAR), Luis Rijo (did not reach Minnesota) from New York (AL) for Lance Lynn (54.1 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.3 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. It was time for Lynn to go. The surly man did not perform in Minnesota, but he has been a quality, reliable pitcher outside of his four months in a Twins uniform. Rijo washed out of Minnesota's system after 2022, and Austin spent time at first base and designated hitter but was again traded in 2019 after C.J. Cron emerged as a better first baseman. It was good to get any big league asset out of this trade. 9. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires Alex Scherff (has not reached Minnesota) from Boston for Hansel Robles (49.2 IP, 95 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota. Robles had a rocky half-season in Minnesota as a setup man in a poor bullpen, so the team was likely to get much of anything in return. Scherff is currently at Wichita, but his performance has not been anything to be excited about from a minor league reliever. 10. 7/30/18: Minnesota acquires Chase De Jong (18.2 IP, 84 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), Ryan Costello (did not reach Minnesota) from Seattle for Zach Duke (14.2 IP, 75 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Duke was having a decent-ish year as a middle reliever. For the last two months of 2018 Duke, the Twins got 18.2 innings of Chase De Jong, who had a good 2022 in Pittsburgh but has otherwise been unremarkable. 11. 7/31/17: Minnesota acquires Tyler Watson (did not reach Minnesota) from Washington for Brandon Kintzler (68.2 IP, 123 ERA+, 1.2 bWAR), -1.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Brandon Kintzler was a great story for the Twins, improbably rising to become an All-Star closer in 2017. The Twins traded him and his expiring contract for Watson, who never made the majors. Washington extended Kintzler on a two-year deal, but he was traded to the Cubs in 2018 for future Twin Jhon Romero. 12. 8/9/18: Minnesota acquires Dakota Chalmers (did not reach Minnesota), from Oakland for Fernando Rodney (35.0 IP, 70 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Twins traded their closer at the deadline. Pulling an Oakland on Oakland, they got back righty Dakota Chalmers , a lottery ticket who struggled with command and is now in independent ball. 13. 7/30/21: Minnesota acquires Stevie Berman (did not reach Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Andrew Vasquez (1.2 IP, 999 ERA+, 0.1 bWAR), -0.1 bWAR for Minnesota. Despite the excitement surrounding Andrew Vasquez as a prospect, he was never able to stick with Minnesota and was flipped for a depth catcher who was waived and is now in Toronto’s system. How do you feel about the Twins' ability to recoup value on expiring or soon-to-expire contracts? Do you feel these names should be in a different order? View full article