Beast

Not sure we’re in a great spot to be criticizing their minor league pitching approach. We haven’t developed a high quality starter from our system in two decades. I like a couple of the Royals’ young pieces, as you mentioned. It’ll be interesting to see how long until they deal them away. I think it feels futile being a Twins fan most days. They’ve had much more postseason success than we have, but I imagine it feels even worse right now being one of the few remaining Royals fans.

The same folks pounding the table to hand the keys to LF to Nick Gordon don’t think this guy is good enough to bump someone off the roster as a bench player. This guy is Nick Gordon’s ceiling. At his best, he’s a much better player than Gordon. He won a utility Silver Slugger 2 years ago and hasn’t hit below .280 in the last 5-6 years. Gordon hits .270 with a handful of doubles for a couple months, after being awful his entire pro career, and people want a statue built - but can’t find a roster spot for Solano. Makes no sense.

I hate to break it you, but guys like Larnach are fringe players. This guy has a better track record at the plate and has more defensive value/flexibility than some of the chaff we currently have on the roster. Following these guys for years has skewed the actual value of some of them for many fans. There’s plenty of room on this roster. It’s largely the same group of guys that got their butts handed to them in the worst division in baseball last year. Not saying he’ll be great. But, at least he can probably be on the field if needed and you can count on a reasonable baseline of performance.

Why is it so puzzling that they added a depth infielder? When the inevitable injury to an infielder happens, they’ll need another swing man to replace Farmer, who will fill the starting void (no. Nick Gordon isn’t playing anywhere in the infield). It means Joey Gallo is an outfielder. Which, he should be (no, Nick Gordon shouldn’t be handed a starting left field job in the MLB after playing out of his mind to elevate himself to league average for two months, for the first and only time in his 10 year pro career - stop). Im not concerned about Larnach. He’s earned nothing. He’s not been good when on the field. Post-injury Alex K. hasn’t either. I’m not concerned about Nick Gordon. If he regresses even slightly he’s absolutely unplayable at a corner OF spot. Solano has had recent success. I think it’s a worthy flier. There’s room on the roster and this team stacks injuries like cordwood. If he fails, there’s nothing lost. I’ve said it before, if you’re going to curl into the fetal position at the thought of lengthy contracts (which we do here), these are the kind of moves you need to make. If that’s the route you choose, make it a numbers game.

Correa did not sign here to win championships. Give all the cliche press conference lip service you want. He’d say the same thing if Pittsburgh or Kansas City signed him. We were the only option offering the kind of money he was looking for. That’s it. He literally tried to sign with 2 other teams first. I’ll take it, not going to complain, but it is what it is. I’d like nothing more than this team winning a championship. But, we’re nowhere near that right now. Our payroll is maxed out (by choice). We have no high-end starting pitching, and nothing in the “pipeline” that projects near the top end of a rotation. A bunch of mediocre position player (outside if Correa and Buxton). Half the 40 man has significant injury concerns. According to the Athletic, we don’t have a single prospect in the top 50 (pitcher or hitter). Correa is a stat head. He knows the numbers, odds, etc inside and out. Hes been a champion. He’s not looking at this roster and prospect pool and thinking about Championships. That’s just not happening.

All of this arguing about “no, he’ll get hurt there, he’s got to play here.” The fact that we’re even having that conversation indicates a huge problem. We’re talking about a 21 year old kid playing baseball, here. If you can’t play centerfield or SS without blowing your knee every year, your body is broken and your career is over. Putting him in left or second base isn’t solving anything. It’s irrationally giving into paranoia over a situation you can’t control. Tryng to hide him in a place he doesn’t use his knees isn’t going to work. He’ll blow it running the bases, or jumping down the dug out stairs, or slipping on some ice, or whatever. He’ll still have to run and pivot at second base or left field. He’s either got knees that can handle a semi-athletic (baseball) sport or he doesn’t. There’s only so much bubble wrap and off days until he’s just not a that useful anymore. Not saying his career is over, but that no amount of micromanagement is going to change the outcome. Same with Buxton, and everyone else on this roster that can’t seem to play a game that drunk 40 year old guys play all the time without a debilitating injury. The only possibilities are their body is broken permanently and chronically, it’s a fluke, or the strength/training staff is doing something egregiously wrong. It’s not because they’re playing the wrong position.

This is almost word for word what was said about Kirilloff a few years back. Not saying it’s good or bad, that Kirilloff is cooked, etc. Just an observation.

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such an inconsequential player be obsessed over at this level. Jose Miranda isn’t giving way to Gordon at third base, for crying out loud. Why are we trying so hard to shoehorn this guy into the lineup? Miranda was just one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball before his promotion. A top 100 prospect. He showed great promise at the plate last year. He has a sustained track record of being a good hitter in the high minors. Gordon has struggled to drag his OPS over .750 going back to rookie ball, has shown a little doubles power for about 5 minutes, and is a poor defender. He’s also 28 years old and people talk about him like he’s still a prospect. But…for some reason we’re very concerned about Miranda not cutting it…so maybe we should get NICK GORDON ready for the 3rd base after signing Joey Gallo, trading for Kyle Farmer, have Royce Lewis returning, and Brooks Lee a stones throw from the majors. Hang on, I need to make sure I haven’t gotten reeled in by Randball….Nope, this is serious.

Really cool story. Its hard has hell to get a leg up in any sport when you’re coming from rural Minnesota (Northfield is borderline, but we’ll give it to him). The internet has changed that a bit, but still very difficult to get noticed. Then, tack on a small college in the middle of nowhere, independent leagues, etc. Talk about beating the odds. It takes a set of stones to stick with a dream like that. When you have a family to feed, it’s got to be nearly impossible to turn down the safe road of selling insurance, teaching gym, etc. That’s said without knowing his history. Maybe he was born into a very wealthy family or has a successful spouse that allows some flexibility there. No idea.

It seems a lot of people want to trade him. Unless it’s in a package of a number of other guys for a true front line starter, which is less likely than Kate Upton showing showing up at my door holding the winning Powerball ticket, I’d be inclined to hang onto him. There are so many question marks right now. We don’t know how if Larnach or Kirilloff will amount to anything. Gallo might not turn things around. Gordon my regress back into a borderline useless player. I don’t know if we can confidently say what we have in Miranda at this point. Throw in injury question marks around other guys like Polanco, Lewis, Buxton, etc. Some of those situations are going to turn out poorly. I’m more inclined to believe it’s inevitable that we’ll need him. We had 5 guys with more than 450 plate appearances last year, and only 2 are returning (Correa and Miranda). We’re bringing in Gallo with 410 and Vasquez with 426. We need to replace Sanchez with 471, Urshela with 551, and Arraez with 600+. There is going to be plenty of playing time to go around, and I’d rather give It to a guy like him over guys like Cave, Beckham, Contreras, Billy Hamilton, etc.

Yeah it’s nuts that people not only under-appreciate Mauer, but almost openly detest him. He’s one of the best and most complete catchers the game has ever seen. Period. At his peak of winning batting titles, hitting doubles like a machine, and playing gold glove caliber defense - name more than one or two in history that was better at the position. The longevity wasn’t necessarily there at the position that some like Bench and Rodriguez have. But, it’s not the hall of longevity. That criteria is sometimes weighted too heavily, IMO. Especially at the catcher position. The contract talk is just absurd. He gets knocked because he was paid for was they thought he would do and he didn’t do it? What? He also got paid peanuts while being the best catcher in the game for 5-6 years. That somehow gets twisted into him fleecing the Twins in some way and being a detriment? Get the hell out of here (figuratively). That’s just ridiculous. Not only that, but he’s a hometown kid. He played out his career here. He lives and invests in the community. And he was a key cog in the longest consecutive run of success this dumpster fire of an organization has ever seen. If they select Mark Prior instead of Mauer, things look much worse for this franchise over the last 22 years. Also, a total class act. People worship at the idols of guys like Puckett who are complete scumbags. There’s something to be said about performing off the field as well. His one knock IMO is not winning enough in the postseason. But, who knows what happens there if Phil Cuzzy didn’t openly rig a playoff game for the Yankees and call a double fair by 30 feet a foul ball.

I like both of these guys in a bench role. Not in a starting role. Many want Gordon to start. I need to see more. One half season on his entire pro career isn’t enough for me to hand him the stating spot a premium offensive position (left field). If he continues his second half of 2022 a month or two into 2023, I’ll start to buy in.

Yes they’re overrated. They still couldn’t compete with the legitimately good baseball teams in the AL when it mattered. If they played in the AL East or West, they wouldn’t have won as many games. Probably something like a one and done wild card. It’s fair to wonder whether they would’ve hit as many home runs - likely not with the better pitching. They beat the Yankees for the home run title by 1. Do the math. The front office once botched the deadline and failed to add anything, which always seems to happen here. So, who knows what might of been. Fun team to watch. Some really awesome games that summer (the Yankees fame in late July….that they still lost). But, it was in the consolation bracket from the beginning. They happened to catch lightning in a bottle by assembling the perfect group of fly ball hitters with a juiced ball against some really bad in-division pitching. No chance in hell of getting by both the Yankees and Astros that year.

We have limited options where I am as well. Also, my 5 year old daughter has been adamant about needing to go to Applebees because of the “Fancy Like” bro country song. So, it’s a nightmare on multiple levels. Save yourselves.

They didn’t sign one of the better defensive outfielders in the game (Gallo) to play first base. They certainly didn’t sign him backup Nick Gordon as the starter in left. He would spit on the floor at that notion and go get a starting gig somewhere else. Let’s compare some numbers, which is what the FO is going to base their decision on. Before getting to NY in 2021, Gallo had an OPS+ of 138 and an OPS of .869 with the Rangers. Some care about batting average. I don’t as much. In 2021 he walked 111 times (led the league) and hit 38 HRs. He scored 90 runs in 498 ABs. In a 5 year span from 2017-2021, Gallo OPS+’d 118, 109, 145, 87, and 121 Lets be generous to Nick Gordon and throw out 2021, in which he had a 79 OPS+ (which exactly matches Gallos 2022 and everyone thinks he’s useless, btw, and is by far the worst of his career). We likely just saw Nick Gordon’s offensive ceiling based on his career output. He OPS’d .743, which is average. He OPS+’d 113, which is good. The .316 OBP is much less than desirable. His defense is at best serviceable. At worst, bad. If you’re one that believes Nick Gordon has another step to take, I applaud your optimism. But, that’s all it is. He’s shown little statically in his professional career that would lead anyone to believe he’s going to improve over last year’s numbers. He was not that good last year, people seem to be missing that. He was a 1.6 WAR player. He’s a bench guy. Gallo has multiple All Star seasons, has won multiple Gold Gloves, has a career OPS .50 points higher than Gordon, and is only 29 years old. I think some think he’s a washed up old guy past his prime. Gordon is going to turn 28 this year. The ceilings here aren’t even close. Long story short, Gallo starts in left quite a bit. Period. People think he’s a right fielder - he’s got more MLB starts in left than right by a fairly wide margin. He’s played the majority of his MLB games in left. Gordon gets worked in when Gallo DHs. It’s fluid, so contain your rage. It can change if Gallo continues to stink and Gordon continues to play well. But, you have to look at the numbers here and throw out blind optimism and recency bias. I’m more inclined to give someone like Farmer ABs at 1st. Bring up Julien to play there. Teach Larnach. Wallner. Hell, even play Gordon or Kepler there, before taking Joey Gallo and putting him there full time. It’s like arguing we put Buxton at 1st full time. That would a be gross mismanagement of assets. You’re eliminating his best skill, one that’s elite relative to anyone else in the team and the league. It’s ridiculous.

Fake news. Applebees nachos are awful. I can’t stand by quietly. Whether satire or not, the idea may take hold and impact someone’s life. If I save just one person from ordering Applebees nachos, it’s worth it.

Don’t know why you wouldn’t do this. If he does what he’s been doing, he’s our second best reliever. Do I think they will? No. Maybe it’s the right move. There’s a reason why he’s still out there. One note: I’m not sure I’d go as far as calling this team a legitimate contender unless we’re just referring the division. We still don’t have a front-line horse starter that I think we’d need for a long playoff run. The FO has done a good job with their limited resources this off-season, but still not sure I feel great about Gray, Ryan, Mahle, or Lopez taking the mound in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Better than Dobnak…but I think we need a little more juice there before booking ALCS tickets.

I’m a big fan of baseball prospectus. If he’s good enough for their top 100, I’d probably have him a little higher on the list. But, the offensive returns seem a little light and we really know nothing about the guy coming from the Marlins system. So, it’s hard to argue with his placement here. I can’t get behind putting him behind a guy like Wallner or Martin, as mentioned above. This is a prospect ranking, not current skill set ranking. I don’t look at Wallner, Martin, Canterino and see a high ceiling. I see a couple guys we hope develop into serviceable roll players and have no real defensive home. Salas has more potential than some 25 year old college guys with extremely checkered track records, whether due to performance or injury. If you’re one that hated the Joey Gallo signing, not sure how you can simultaneously be higher on Wallner than a guy like Salas. Joey Gallo with no defense is probably the highest reaches of Wallner’s ceiling.

They’re finding a way to get a promising prospect in the lineup. People are up in arms if they don’t do this. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t, I guess. Gio Urshela is an OK player. But, he’s not the answer to anything. If he was, he’d still be a Yankee. This team isn’t going to win or lose because of Gio freaking Urshela. They can easily give him 1B or DH time if it doesn’t work at third. It’s not like he would be playing SS or CF. What development is he missing out on? He’ll be 25 this June. You want him playing 2nd base or DHing for St. Paul? Why is that less risky? Then you’d be upset that he’s taking time from Julien. As mentioned, they also have solutions for 3B outside of Miranda. Either Lewis or Lee is 100% ending up at 3rd. If one of them doesn’t, it’s because Correa moved there. Everyone would be screaming about “blocking” prospects if they’d signed someone to play 3rd. They’d also be upset because free agent contracts are too risky. If they hand over the keys to a prospect it’s also too risky. We don’t want Miranda at third with his track record, but we want the significantly lesser track record of Nick Gordon and his shoddy defense to start a premium offensive position. I’m confused. Im fine with it, is the short answer.

A lot are concerned about 1-2 mph on his fastball (if he threw 95-96 instead of 93-94 we’d be calling it plus velocity). There are more factors that make a fastball good than just velocity. We see it with Joe Ryan. So, I don’t think we need to break out the Greg Maddox, and the handful of other slow tossing outliers throughout the years. If we’re banking on him turning into a guy like that, he’s in trouble. There are very few guys at any given time that thrive with well below average fastballs. As another poster mentioned above - his is just fine. The concern is the secondary stuff. You can’t get by on a fastball alone. Whatever the speed. Guys eat 100 mph fastballs for breakfast. I’m optimistic he’ll be a serviceable back end guy. Which is just fine.

Hard to argue with that. That would be my choice also. I knew I’d see people in here calling Nick Gordon and his career defensive deficit and average bat (at best) the most underrated player. Despite 80% of fans clamoring to hand him a starting spot at a corner OF spot. He’s arguably the most overrated player at this point. This FO would squeeze water out of a stone if it was there be had with with their beefed up analytics department. After running the numbers, they were so confident in Gordon that they signed Gallo, traded for Taylor, and are keeping Kepler.

I’ve never understood the take that acquiring Gallo unequivocally means they need to move Kepler. And the reason for that is Trevor Larnach, et all. It made more sense when we still had Arraez on the roster. We don’t anymore. Trevor Larnach hasn’t done a whole to show he should be handed the keys to anything. His numbers stink. Gallo has positional flexibility. He can play all 3 OF spots and first base. The team has shown they like to rest guys and move them around. There’s also a DH slot to fill. There is a ridiculous track record of injuries on this club. The guy currently assumed to be slotted in at 1B might never hit worth a squat in his career because of chronic wrist issue. And, frankly, his overall numbers stink. They would get nothing in return for Kepler that exceeds his value to the team. They would essentially be giving him away to make room for Gordon and Larnach. The value of Kepler has gotten fairly underrated. It’s almost turned into hyperbole this off-season. He’s been between a 2-4 WAR player every year of his career. Gordon has a full seasons worth of plate appearances (over 600). He’s got exactly a 0.0% WPA, a 101 OPS+, a .711 OPS, 1.7 WAR and a negative overall dWAR. And people look at him like a prospect - he’s 2 years younger than Kepler at 27. Trevor Larnach has just under a full season with a -2.5 WPA, a 94 OPS+, a .687 OPS, a 1.9 WAR and a 0.7 dWAR. He’s 26. These aren’t young guys. They’re already exiting their physical prime. Maybe Kepler won’t be any better that. Who knows. But right now, even with is anemic offense, his OF defense makes him a more valuable player than both of these guys. He also has a longer track record of OPSing higher than both of these guys. He makes 6 million dollars - that’s peanuts. For context, Michael Taylor makes $4.5 to be a backup. I just don’t see the benefit out running Kepler out of town for a poor return right now. It just feels like a bad move.

There are some hideous numbers in that group for the older players (21+). Not sure some of those guys should even be on the list at this point. Schoebel is looking like another poorly executed reach with a high draft pick by this FO. Maybe I’m wrong, but there seems to be a pattern of them grabbing a guy well above the projection, and it turns out very poorly (Cavaco, Sabato, Schoebel, off the top of my head). I know, baseball drafts are a crap shoot, I get it. But holy crap have these guys struck out in the draft. Out of all the drafts they’ve been a part of, nobody drafted has made a major impact in the MLB (maybe Ober and Jax), and only 2 are on the current top 100 list (at the same position). Maybe I’m missing some significant ones. We’re not talking about a small sample size anymore. They’ve had, what, 6-7 drafts? And they’ve clearly targeted college level players who should reach the majors much quicker. They seem to have done well in other areas, and there are a few promising drafted prospects right now (Prielipp, Varland, Julien, Lee, Miller). So, things could turn quickly.

I’d put the Arraez trade above signing Vasquez. Maybe even #1. Various outlets analyzing the values exchanged in that trade say the Twins fleeced the Marlins. They got a quality young starter with All-Star upside, a top 100 prospect, and another promising throw-in for a guy that can’t hit for power, can’t play defense, can’t run, can’t get through a season healthy, and plays the least “premium” position in baseball where we have a massive surplus. Im also of the opinion that his hit tool (“average”) has been exaggerated. It’s not like the guy hits .340 like Gwynn and prime Mauer. He hit below .300 in 2021 and .317 in 2022. Thats very good, but people have somehow warped that into some sort of generational talent. I absolutely love that move from a baseball standpoint. I know many don’t agree, but that’s how I see it.

Larnach has a .370 slugging and .680 OPS in 430 ABs. Kirilloff - .398, .694 in 350. They have 2 WAR between the two of them in 800 ABs. We’ll find out how much that is due to injury, I guess. Im not sure Kirilloff will be the same. I don’t doubt he wouldve been a good hitter if not for the wrist. Im more optimistic about him. I’m not so sure about Larnach.