Beast

I’m not any more concerned about Fulmer than I am guys Henriquez, Megill, Pagan, Sands, even Lopez. Some of these metrics have to have some sort of predictive value. Is Fulmer’s slider still better than some of the other bums in the roster despite losing an inch? Do we care that Pagan or Megill’s pitches have some increment of more movement when we’ve seen time and time again they stink? Not saying I do or do not believe in Fulmer. But, it’s not like we have a full boat here. I’ll welcome anyone who has shown they can get hitters out in recent history.

I think we’re done. May pick up a highly discounted bullpen arm as we near spring training at most. I think Kepler is staying. The chances of us giving up what it would take to get Reynolds is 0%. Even if we were willing to come up with a package the Pirates would take, which I doubt, Reynolds isn’t asking out to get shipped off to an equally inept franchise in terms of playoff track record, and one that won’t give him the monster contract he’s likely looking for (hence the trade request). He wants to go win, and get his big payday instead of getting strung along in low ball arbitration on a loser. The chances of him coming before Correa was nearly 0%. After signing Correa, it’s just as likely we reanimate the corpse of Willie Mays to play LF.

He’s a good backup option to have for when Buxton goes on the IL. He’s still at minimum a quality late game defensive replacement for a guy like Gordon or Garlick. He’s still young and has more offensive upside than Taylor. Maybe even a solid trade piece for a bullpen arm. Theres still value there.

My preference would probably be Buxton into Correa 2nd. Just give the two best hitters in the team the most ABs. I could be sold on Polanco with Correa and Buxton following.

Not sure this is far from the truth. This guy was also likely, and very ironically, very upset about the Arraez trade.

Who else was supposed to hit in those 1-4 spots in the order? That roster has stunk since the end of 2019. Nick Gordon? Who, by the way, has the exact same career OPS+ as Kepler while being much worse defensively. But, people act as if he’s a rising star while simultaneously calling for Kepler to be traded or benched. You need to have a better player to replace him. We don’t have one that’s been able to play RF and stay on the field.

Since Arraez is a first baseman/DH here, I would argue he’s not really being replaced by someone like Julien. They’re not taking Arraez’s 500 PAs and handing them 1 for 1 to Julien. He might not see any of those ABs. He’s more being replaced by Kirilloff, Gallo, Miranda, and the plethora of other hitters that will get 1B/DH ABs. Hopefully there’s more ABs from Buxton sprinkled in there as well. I feel like that’s lost on people. It’s not an unknown commodity taking over. There’s a pretty good chance that the replacements above end up OPSing higher than Arraez would have.

Arraez didn’t really have long ABs. That’s an incorrect perception that’s been developed for one reason or another. Gleeman and Bonnes had some great stats to back this up on their podcast. On average, there are a number of Twins players that see more pitches. Arraez is nearly exactly league average in that department. I believe his average per AB or PA (don’t remember which) is exactly the same as Gilberto Celestino. I haven’t yet heard anyone lament the impact that Celestino in AAA will have on the lineup (they’ll see fewer pitches from the on deck circle). It’s funny how that perception is created. Guys like Sano and Gallo see a ton of pitches. But, people think they’re up there hacking at everything because of the K numbers. It’s actually the opposite. They are just often in 3-2 or 2-2 counts before swinging the bat. (Another nice bit of context/info from Gleeman/Geek). I’ve heard national guys saying this too. How guys like Jazz Chisholm will benefit greatly from seeing all these extra pitches with Arraez in front of them. Staring into the camera saying things are completely made up and false. Fascinating little case study in mis/dis information.

We need a RH bat. We could use more guys with his playoff experience. I wouldn’t hate it for those reasons. His overall playoff stats are rather pedestrian. Actually has a negative overall WPA in the playoffs. But, he’s had some good series and big moments. Also, can’t find a substitute for that experience. Winning experience. This roster is very immature in that regard (except Correa).

I don’t like that. He’s only good for so many innings a year. When he’s healthy he’s good. I’d rather they not waste them in AAA. None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings. Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3. We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year: Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings. I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.

I see your point, but disagree that he’s our best hitter. The average is nice, sure. But, he had 20 more hits than Carlos Correa over the course of the season, and Correa misses time. When those extra hits are mostly singles with nobody on base, there’s not a ton of value added there. Correa hit like 13-14 more home runs, OPS’d .30 points higher, walked more, and was a full 10 points higher in OPS+. It’s not even close, frankly. A healthy Buxton (I know) and Kirilloff are right up there also. But, yes, I see your point and it’s valid. After hearing some analysis of Lopez by a few different people….it sounds like there’s some upside there. He’s under two years of control, and they threw in a top 100 prospect. You just can’t say know to that for an empty .315 batting average and bad knees.

The Twins would’ve been nuts to say no to this deal, IMO. They need to start replenishing the farm system. They added a top 100 prospect. They needed a starting pitcher. They added a cheap, rock solid middle of the rotation guy under team control, with some All Star caliber upside. Could very possibly be our best starter at the end of 2023. Nobody here wants to spend on high-end starting pitchers, this is about as good as it gets in terms of obtaining a solid MLB-ready starter. We have a glut of guys that can play 1st base. Arraez’s value will never be higher, and it’s already extremely limited with zero defense and power. His ability to stay healthy is questionable long-term. This allows them to keep the rotation fresh. Potentially run a 6 man rotation at times if needed, move talented guys to roles in the bullpen (guys like Winder and Ober if they can’t handle big workloads). Paddack and Maeda can be worked back in slowly. There’s also some pretty darn good depth for inevitable injuries. The more I think about it, the more I like it. I give the FO tons of credit for this. Ballsy move, but checks so many boxes. Might be my favorite move they’ve ever made.

Devon Smeltzer started 12 games, Cole Sands 3, Aaron Sanchez 3, Chi Chi Gonzalez 2. Only Ryan and Bundy threw more than 120 innings last year. Nobody threw more than 150. That’ll likely happen again. There are plenty of innings to go around.

Holy crap. I did not see this coming. I love watching Arraez. But, I don’t trust his body to hold up through a long career. Pretty good return.

We desperately need a RH bat, and the ceiling for him is high enough that it’s ridiculous to just flat out say no. That’s clearly a biased take based on some personal dislike for the guy. I’d gladly take him and stash him at AAA and see if he gets on one of his ridiculous hot streaks. He’s a guy that, when locked in at the plate, can carry a team by hitting for power from the right side like nobody else we have on this roster (maybe Buxton and Correa). Maybe those days are gone, who knows, but it’s worth a flier on an incentive-laden minor league deal. At his absolute worst (2020 and 2021), he still OPS’s well above .750. Still OPS+ of 105, 112. Those are well above Gordon’s numbers, who people think is some sort of phenom. He’s never hit for average as low as Gallo did last year (still above .200 at his worst). He’s perfectly capable of slugging around .500. I get some of these guys have defensive value (Gordon’s is ridiculously overrated by most Twins fans, though, probably due to his slender stature giving the impression of a fast guy) - but writing him off as a useless player just reeks of bias. We carry worse players on this roster every year.

Do we really have a problem here? Are any of these guys, outside of Buxton when healthy (which isn’t enough), really that good? We’re likely not seeing the same Alex K. we saw before the wrist. Gallo looked useless at the plate last year. Gordon is nothing to write home about as a starter. Who knows what will happen with Larnach, last year was weird and he’s seen his struggles. Kepler hasn’t hit since 2019. The FO and management maybe have some tough decisions. But, it’s not because of a glut of talent. It’s more avoiding the land mine of cutting the wrong one loose.

Torres was a 4.1 WAR player last year. He can play SS. His career OPS+ is 114. Gordon’s is 101. Gordon spent 4-5 years in the minors battling to keep his OPS over .700. Torres has numerous years over .800, some over .900, and one over 1.000. Torres has been an All Star twice. He hit 38 home runs a couple years back. He’s registers OPS+ of 122, 128, 103, and 114 in 4 of the last 5 full seasons. Torres had a dWAR if 1.4 last year. Gordon has never posted a positive dWAR. Torres has never had a negative WPA season. Gordon’s career number is 0 and was a negative last year (his “breakout”). Gordon isn’t even on the same planet as Torres in terms of track record and potential. He’s a replacement level bench guy who is lucky to be in the league right now. If he weren’t a top 10 pick with his pedigree (dad and brother) he probably would’ve washed out into an independent league years ago. Nobody is giving anybody anything for Nick Gordon.

Nobody is taking Nick Gordon for Pablo Lopez straight up.

Hilarious, and not that far off from reality. Change the title to “ball guys” of TD, and add a couple paragraphs about them claiming Nick Gordon is the best OF on the team, and this is no longer fiction.

In terms of raw talent, he already is and it’s not even really close (unless I’m forgetting someone). Whether he can remain healthy enough, long enough, is the question. But, with one 5.5 WAR season with a .834 OPS, 140 OPS+, with a 1.1 dWAR, he’s already well on his way. Smalley had one season better than that with the Twins. Gagne, maybe one season better with the Twins. Guzman had one season on par with that in terms of WAR, but largely stunk in terms of WAA (career -6.4). He doesn’t have to do much other than show up and stand at shortstop the next few years.

I mean, a career 3.77 FIP with 500+ innings at the age of 26….four of his 5 seasons are 58.2 innings, 111.1 innings, 57.1 innings, and 102.2 innings. Last year 180. Good strikeout numbers. If we’re dealing some our MLB roster chaff, I’m in. Arras’s, I’m in (not happening). I don’t want to give up a top prospect here. This doesn’t strike me as the guy to get us over the playoff hump. Would love to have him, don’t get me wrong. He makes the team better. But, I’d like a little more if we are dipping into Lee, Rodriguez, etc.

Bailed out, big time. The track record on trades isn’t the greatest. That was probably in their back pocket of Correa didn’t fall into their lap. Who knows how that turns out (Lee, Rodriguez, and/or Raya gone for someone on the cusp of a major injury). The impact is greater than the 5-6 wins Correa provided statistically last year. He’s a champion and high-end competitor. Completely changes the club house. Young players learn more. He eats up a lot of the pressure that may fall on others. It frees up so many other things also. It gives guys like Buxton and Arraez some protection in the lineup. That may allow them to perform better. It allows you to do things with the defensive alignment you may not have otherwise been able to. Maybe you get Royce Lewis in left field to give you 3-4-5 WAR instead of Nick Gordon/Alex K./Larnach giving you 1-2. You can move Farmer around to allow for more rest days. Your lineup is much better against LHPs. There is more fan excitement, more energy in the stadium. More press coverage and exposure. He adds credibility to the roster that may result in players wanting to sign or be traded here at some point. The ripple effect throughout the whole franchise is huge. The impact might be closer to 10-15 wins than the 5-6 baseball reference will tell you. Who knows. A number of things can’t even be quantified properly. I do know that FO and ownership got bailed out big time. Fan morale was at a depth of low not seen in quite a while. A taste of bile in fans mouths that wasnt going to wash away for some time. That’s gone, mostly. It can’t be disputed these guys are supremely lucky. Where would they be right now if Nelson Cruz and Carlos Correa (twice) hadn’t fallen into their lap because nobody else wanted them. Very possibly not employed for this team any more. But, hey, I’d rather be lucky than good. I won’t give them credit for a “strategy.” I won’t give them credit for their “patience” (that’s another one I’m hearing). Doing nothing doesn’t mean patience. They were likely just hoisting the white flag to rebuild. I will give them credit for pouncing on the opportunity that fell from the sky and landed on their face.

I think people overvalue Arraez and what other teams would be willing to give up for him. But, I could be wrong. I just don’t see a rebuilding team wanting a non-prospect (graduated) who’s already arb eligible, with his deficiencies and questionable longevity for high-end pitching. I don’t see any contenders out there with a glut of pitching and holes at 1B/DH that would pay up for him. We all love him. I just don’t think he’s that valuable in the trade market. If I’m the Marlins, there’s no way I even consider a trade for stud starting pitcher with Arraez as the centerpiece - unless the second and third guys with him are monster prospects. Not sure we have many guys right now that I’d be willing to part with that actually hold value. So many are coming off injuries or bad years. Lewis would be on the top of my list right now if his value wasn’t suppressed by back to back ACLs. It would have to be incredible for me to move Lee or Rodriguez. Prielipp would likely be drastically undervalued at this point. Excluding a couple of pitching prospects near the majors that I’d rather keep (Varland and SWR) we’re probably down to Miranda, Wallner, and Julien. Not sure what you could get for some combo of those 3, with some combo of Kepler, Arraez - maybe throw in Raya or Festa. Not sure we combine enough of those guys to pry Alcantara away from the Marlins. If we’re not going after a guy of that caliber, what’s the point? We have enough 3,4,5 caliber starters (including guys like SWR, Varland, Winder). We need someone to anchor the top of the rotation.

I think this speaks to what they think about Lewis or Lee playing SS in 2023 or 2024. Wouldn’t be the Twins style to sign Correa if they were confident in one of them stepping in and holding it down in the near future. Im totally fine with it. There’s always been questions about Lewis at short. Sounds like there are some questions bout Lee also. Best case Ontario (for you TPB fans), They have a tough decision on who moves to third and/or OF. Lewis in left (with Buxton in CF) and Lee at 3rd is a possibility. Maybe Miranda can play 1st or 2nd or gets moved at some point. Worst case, Correa’s leg or back causes him to get moved off of SS in a couple years and he becomes one of the better defenders at 3B in the league. He’s certainly got the arm for it. The Twins are in a great spot right now with SS for the foreseeable future. Not sure I’ve ever been able to say that in my lifetime.

The roster on paper looks great, but a lot of things needs to break right in order to be successful: -Buxton needs to stay healthy -Arraez needs to stay healthy -Alex K needs to stay healthy and return to his once promising form. -Tyler Mahle needs to stay healthy. -Ober needs to stay healthy (if not, Varland/Paddack need to be good). -Kenta Maeda needs to return to pre-injury form. -Jorge Polanco needs to stay healthy -Duran needs to remain a dominant bullpen arm -Pagan needs to stay out of high leverage roles -Lopez needs to figure things out and return to pre-trade form. -Jax needs to take another step -Kepler, if on the team, needs to see this theory of the shift ban helping him come to fruition. -Joey Gallo needs to be better than last year and provide some power numbers If all of those things happen, we win some playoff games and may even be a World Series contender. All of those things won’t happen. If none of them happen, we stink. If some of them happen, somewhere in the middle. Thats my main gripe with this FO. Things are currently constructed in a way that requires all of these hypotheticals and what-ifs to take place. A lot of them aren’t real likely to happen (Buxton being healthy, Alex K. returning to form, Maeda returning to firm, shift change reinventing Kepler, Gallo performing, Duran maintaining a ridiculous level of performance, Lopez returning to form). Take a bunch of things that aren’t likely to happen individually and combine them…..we’re not looking at great odds. I’m excited for what could happen. I think we’re fairly likely to start the year hot and fizzle out a bit as everyone breaks down again. Don’t think it’ll be as pronounced and disgusting. But, we’re much more likely to see a repeat of last year than make the ALCS, the way things sit today. That’s my threshold for a successful year. Not interested in regular season wins or division titles in in an awful division at this point.