JD-TWINS

Agreed - trying to choose the players to trade away is nearly impossible since there is no window into the minds of other GM’s. My only pushback or alternative is justifying moving Rodriguez & why. With Martin (CF) coming, more than likely, at some point in ‘24 & Jenkins (CF) coming in all probability at some point in ‘26 & displacing whoever is there ………..to me, Rodriguez (CF) seems to be the biggest carrot we can afford to live without. An observation/opinion. Personally, I really believe we are at a level to challenge for the AL pennant……..most here seem to be skeptical & pessimistic about the club. Going all out to set up our Pen & having it be a real strength, to me, is worthwhile. Many more ways to accomplish things but, to me, Williams is a clear path to a bunch of success ……….helps as well, with pushing Varland back to starter depth, with clarity.

Mostly, really solid comments here. The Revenue per team & associated payroll is very interesting. TWINS spend twice the % of Baltimore - Pittsburgh - Cleveland…….they are truly CHEAP organizations! Anyway, the only really bad contract at this point is Buxton’s, since he’s not been playing and there’s some doubt that he will going forward. Dobnack is “a rounding error” as stated above, CC will be back to contributing status, Vazquez is the risk for signing an aging vet - he’s not far from average & a plus defensively. Nothing here to stop us from having an ability to spend another $30M if we trade away Polanco’s $10.5M. That would get us to solid - competitive club!

What a difference a year makes! No Jorge Lopez & no Emilio Pagan (I know he helped us in ‘23) to worry about - FO provided relief for us. My solution is more of a big move…….post it here every other day but get no comments one way or the other. Trade Rodriguez - Festa - Sands - Gordon & Polanco to Milwaukee, with the assumption they then trade Polanco for prospects, for Devin Williams. All-Star closer & previously a set-up man. Still young & 2 years of control! $6.25M in ‘23. Thielbar - Funderburk - Balazovic - Alcala (Canterino - Winder as needed) Jax - Stewart Williams Duran Best bullpen in the game!! Playoffs come & Varland moves into the 5th-6th inning guy and we’re dominant!

Kuechel isn’t the answer - Mahle is out for the year - not sure who Dobson is? Urias is out of baseball & the next Trevor Bauer - headed to court! Need to elevate our expectations from this group. Pretty sure they were 15-19 in Gray’s starts (good point) & when considering a replacement, this needs to be taken into consideration! We don’t need a #1 or #2 to get through the 162 grind - need another reasonable option. If things are looking good we can potentially trade for a top shelf guy at the deadline. I do think Lopez every 5th day in the playoffs, with travel days mixed in, is a weapon! Paddack/Ober/Varland in some order as a bullpen type game could be very effective! Ryan as our #2 starter is stretching but he could reach that status. I want to TRADE for Devin Williams, Milwaukee’s All-Star closer & former set-up guy. $6.25M salary is very doable and he’s got 2 years left. Our Pen would be elite!! Sign Lugo for 2 years at $13M/year ……3.53 ERA in ‘23………..or maybe Wade Miley to eat up 125 innings in spot starts through the year to compliment Varland/Ober……similar mid 3’s ERA over last 3 years!! Trade Polanco and according to information here our payroll is at $80M…….sign Lugo $13M - pay Williams $6.25M - sign Adam Duvall $8M - Donovan Solano as the RH first baseman & PH $3.25M……..that’s a 1B - CF/LF - Reliever - Starter all for total payroll of $111M - that’s a 28% reduction from last year’s payroll of $154M.

Am certainly not trying to promote Steer as better than either Lewis or Julien at the plate……he’s far superior to Julien playing 3-4 positions though. I think most observers believe it’s more difficult to have good numbers over the 580 AB’s than 250 or 350 as is the case for the Twin’s rookies.

Sure, I agree, they were just lowering expectations so they can justify a lack of activity. W/o announcing they look pretty foolish not making any moves. A 15% reduction in payroll would be pretty steep and that takes us down to $132M total. If we move Polanco we’re presently at a level of $114M……….this leaves room for a FA starter in the $13M range. Lugo seems lowest risk - best value to me. For about the 10th time in last month, I gotta suggest trading with Milwaukee for Devin Williams. Their set-up guy could close for them & they want controllable prospects & salary reduction. Their rookie 2B was not great last year…….let them try Gordon there and in LF as needed. Gordon - Rodriguez - Festa for Williams & our Pen is elite for next 2 years. Varland focuses on being depth guy for rotation.

Agreed - If Gilbert has 3 years or more of control then you have to do a deal - he’s too good to pass on. Just don’t see that as real though.

I live in Cincinnati & McClean/Steer/DeLaCruz all defer to CES as the best hitter of the group………he would fill in just as you say 1B/3B/DH……mostly 1B. Steer would play LF & some 2B & 3B if needed. He had a really consistent season! They’re gone - gotta move on and hope for good things from Lee & Martin.

My impression is Twins are at $113M if they trade Polanco & keep all the arbitration guys. Offensively they are reasonable as is, with Lee & Martin coming by July…..,,at least one of them. Pitching is reasonable with Varland as 5th starter but no depth. Lost Pagan, Maeda, & Gray. To get better & stay in budget……..sign Lugo as FA ($13M) …….trade for Ace Reliever Devin Williams to use in 8th inning or 9th as needed for next 2 years ($6.25M) ……that’s $132M. To change up the look, while iron is hot, trade Kepler & reduce to $122M & then sign Taylor ($6M) or Duvall ($7.5m) for depth in OF.

I don’t think moving Lewis is optimal but we need to fit hitters into the line-up. He has injury concerns and is physically big enough to play 1B. Don’t see Lee moving there & Julien has his hands full at any position ……would like him to elevate in one spot, 2B. Open to anything that gets maximum offensive threats into a game. Lewis could play LF with Kirilloff at 1B. I too like Varland in the Pen but honestly think organization committed last August when moving him to Pen, to give him an opportunity to be a starter in ‘24. I get that he’s an employee & needs to play for betterment of the Team but it may be sticky. As we all know, 3 runs in 6 innings is a quality start & I think we can get that or better routinely from a few of the FA guys, Lugo - Wacha - Miley & even Varland……..that’s an ERA of 4.50 maybe down to 4.00. This is a guy that allows for wins v. any of the other Team’s starters, #1-#5. IMO…….Paddack - Lopez - Ryan are reasonable trio of playoff starters and if Ober improves at all he’s right there. Sure, George Kirby would be great!!! Seth Lugo is there waiting to be signed - veteran with low career innings - 3.53 ERA last year…..$13M. I trade Polanco & his salary for whatever prospects. Sign Lugo for 2 years at $13M/yr. I trade a package (Polanco’s prospect gain plus Gordon for 2B & Rodriguez & Festa - gotta be enough!) to Milwaukee for Devin Williams to solidify Pen at a level of excellence for next 2 years - $6.25M/year salary. Trade Polanco’s $10.5M away and take on $19.25M in 2 pitchers……….very affordable - plausible!

I don’t understand the desperation for pitching. I agree with trying to supplement the current staff but the Twins were 15-19 in Sonny Gray’s starts in ‘23…….it doesn’t matter how high quality of performance he had in games they didn’t win ……..an odd thinking but realistic. Obviously, the better the pitcher throws the better chance for a win! However, we have 3 guys that project, maybe 4 if Ryan quits giving up so many HR, to have ERA under 4.00. Do we think that there is no way Louie Varland can go .500 as our 5th starter? We do need depth! Gray pitched well in one playoff game (with a pick-off at 2B to get out of a jam) & not very good at all in another. The other issue I don’t understand is our willingness to only trade for pitching but an affinity to go out & sign a 1B or OF via FA. There are guys out there that can be signed for a year or two at $11 -$14M per year for one or two years. Not too expensive! Keep Lee - play him at 3B - move Lewis to LF or 1B where he can hit & stay healthy. Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B & trade Polanco to afford pitching. If Wallner’s hitting we could move Kepler in July & shift Lewis to LF. Buxton doesn’t allow Twins to have DH options. Pitching is certainly a must but we can’t afford to trade 1st round picks (bats) that are evolving and have a reasonable ceiling! Other ways to get arms via trade, if desired, w/o giving up Lee……….Rodriguez - Festa - Miranda - Gordon - Larnach - Polanco ……….younger prospects, etc. Seems with Martin coming & capable in CF & Jenkins destined there in 2-3 years, Rodriguez could be our most viable carrot in a trade.

1) If Lee isn’t on the 26 man April 1 he’s not ready - no mystery. July is best timing. 2) Keller being available is a thin prospect - why not keep him for another year with 2 yrs of control left for Pittsburgh? 3) Farmer is defensively superior to any options we have fielding ground balls other than CC……..he should be our depth guy, starting at 2B v. LH pitching and spelling Lewis & CC……..80-100 starts! 4) Polanco is too expensive for his probable lack of availability……need to move him with prospect or two for best return……….I’d take a big swing at Devin Williams with Milwaukee - it sets up our Pen for next 2 years. They want controllable pieces - they need 2B help - they want less salary. Polanco, for them to turn and trade for more prospects to whoever they like, Gordon as potential inexpensive upside at 2B, Rodriguez & Festa. 5) No Hoskins - too many $$………..$6.25M to Williams & $13M to Seth Lugo — trade Polanco and the net change is $9M over todays number…….under $125M total. Our Pen is solid - our outfield is fine with Castro/Buxton/Martin in CF………maybe sign Taylor for $6M……better continuity and stability than Bader……..IF has Farmer for depth & Lee coming.

Henriquez was a surprise to me as well - I actually thought he might be ahead of Alcala at this point.

Agreed & maybe toss Larnach into the maybe traded group. I don’t see any others getting DFA’d either.

Agreed - we need to get control & valued talent for our top prospect types! No one year rentals. With Jenkins coming in ‘26, it appears at some point that year, and with Rodriguez coming in ‘25 and Martin probably available (50/50) in ‘24, I move Rodriguez - CF with power. Rodriguez - Festa - Gordon - Kepler or Polanco (based on need) is a nice package for many teams………..I’ve beat this to death, I trade with Milwaukee to help them gain players with control (Festa - Rodriguez) for their rebuild & give them Gordon for some potential upside at 2B & maybe one of Polanco or Kepler? Get Devin Williams from their Pen for 2 years minimum…..$6.25M salary add. Our Pen becomes elite!! Varland is free to start - depth. Then sign FA Lugo or similar for $12-$13M.

I was a keep Max & trade Jorge proponent. Have been swayed within TD to now move both. Depending upon what they think of Martin & Lee’s progress/capabilities will dictate how far they will/can go with moving veterans. Lee (by July)at 3B & Lewis to LF & Wallner to right is a possibility……..Lee at 3B & Lewis to 1B with Kirilloff to the OF is another. Move Polanco & Kepler if we can pair either with a Festa - Winder - Headrick - Rodriguez for an arm. Saves $21.5M to use on pitching and potentially a RH bat for OF, even Taylor. Keep Farmer at less $ and better defensive flexibility & skills at this point than Polanco at all 3 spots. Remaining Veteran core of CC - Buxton - Vázquez - Farmer - maybe Taylor for continuity in clubhouse. Payroll would be down to around $104M if we keep all arbitration guys & trade Jorge & Max. Taylor (or guy of choice, Duvall?) Wallner - Castro - Larnach - Gordon with Martin coming as the outfield. Balance of $$ up to mid $130’s on pitching.

I’ve been very pro keeping Kepler & all for trading Polanco. Polanco isn’t durable enough to value highly anymore. He needs to be moved, with our numerous other options at 2B & 3B. Kepler is part of a less deep outfield with Buxton’s status being seriously in doubt. Kepler is at a high value after the last 3.5 months on the grass. However, after considering that we can probably get Duvall as a bat v. LH pitching & some pinch hitting & OF depth for not much more than $8-$10M it may be worth a change. We could even re-sign Michael A. Taylor for a depth piece instead of Duvall. We trade both Polanco & Kepler & even with all the arbitration signings, we have payroll down to $103M……..we also gain some level of assets - a reasonable pitcher possibly by coupling a couple prospects and maybe Winder/Headrick with either Polanco or Kepler. Wallner in RF - Castro/Gordon in CF - Larnach in LF v. RH pitching is reasonable. Duvall (or like, even Taylor) can play against LH pitching with Castro & either Wallner or Larnach. Duvall ($9M) - Gordon - Larnach - Castro - Taylor ($6M) - Wallner Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff - Farmer (Castro & Gordon for additional depth)…….Farmer is depth at 1B as well Vazquez - Jeffers Example V. LH pitching: Taylor CF - Duvall RF - Castro LF - Lewis 3B - CC SS - Farmer 2B - Kirilloff 1B - Buxton DH - Jeffers C (substituting Duvall for Solano in ‘23 because he plays OF) Martin is an option instead of Taylor/Duvall. Lee is coming so somebody gets traded at deadline or earlier in July.

Perfect teams don’t exist. Pablo Lopez was 2nd in League & top 5 in baseball in K’s. He’s 23rd in ERA in ‘23. There’s 30 teams - he’s an ACE. After watching 2 playoff starts, I pitch him in front of Gray every day of the week! How many other staffs have 6 starters that are very capable of sub 4.00 ERA & over .500 W-L records?………we currently have 5 guys. We could certainly use another but trading Vazquez doesn’t help us from a pitching standpoint. Vazquez was 4th best defensive catcher in AL, handles catchers great - need to hang in to him as valuable depth guy! Spending $12.5M total on 2 good catchers is OK spending. Gallo - Gray - Mahle - Taylor - Solano & a Polanco trade totals around $50M from last year’s $154M total………after the arbitration guys were given offers, we’re at around $114M……..that’s $25M to work with, after an assumed 10% reduction in payroll. J. Montgomery is an option within payroll at $137M total……trading for Devin Williams & signing Seth Lugo as FA is an option at $133M total…….,There are many paths to a solid staff and I have confidence that the FO will spend & trade to the Team’s benefit.

Headrick/Winder - Festa - Larnach for a guy that can be our #3 or #4 or even #5 starter is worthwhile. ……..we are in win now mode - can’t afford to trade Wallner’s upside. The guys above don’t affect our near term much at all. They certainly have value…….who knows what Angels may want? Keller in Pittsburgh is a Big swing but may be worthwhile to move 3-4 guys …….maybe a Rodriguez - Miranda - Festa - Headrick/Winder package?

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I don’t understand how Polanco is linked to either Kirilloff’s or Buxton’s health? Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff is our infield prior to whenever Lee may be ready. Depth is Farmer at $7M max………this was last year’s infield when Polanco was on IL. We need to move Polanco while he’s still upright. Need to clear his $10.5M salary to be able to move on some pitching options. 104 games in ‘22 & 80 games in ‘23…….career .270 hitter that’s hit .235 & .255 the last two years.

He did play a few innings at 1B in the Show in ‘23. I agree that’s how he was groomed (2B) - personally, I think he’s suspect with a glove on, no matter where he’s playing - not an intuitive defensive bone in his body. My comment was IF HE CAN HANDLE 1B - I make no assumptions. Frankly, with Buxton & his deal through ‘27 or ‘28, I see Julien’s potential to DH as seriously limited! Once Lee is hitting at an acceptable level things are clogged at 2B. I’m already assuming they trade Polanco this winter. I did see an interesting thought above that was new……..Lewis to 1B & have Lee play 3B & let Julien stick at 2B. Again, not a natural move for an athlete like Lewis but maybe the best utilization of everyone’s D skills & highest octane offense……..could lead to moving Kepler at deadline if attractive. Kirilloff into LF & Wallner in right with Gordon (Larnach comes up mid-season) & Larnach as OF depth & Castro starting in CF most of the time.

104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - 80 games in ‘23 & hit .255…………career .270 hitter. Declining health & offense.

Didn’t really see any appealing guy in the mix shown here - can’t imagine Pirates consider moving their guy. Spending $6M for Taylor as an insurance policy is as good as any of these options shown. So, Buxton playing CF is realistically, what - 30%???…….we have inexpensive guys that have played reasonable CF for us previously and are rostered, Castro & Gordon. We have the potential Buxton could play 30-40 games & I would think we’ll know that by March 1st…..still time to get something done via trade if absolutely necessary. Martin being ready by end of June is at least a 50/50 probability. I don’t see a need to sign or trade for any CF help.

For $12M or less per year, we should seriously consider giving him 2 years………we trade Polanco to handle the salary. This gives us some leverage with other negotiations for pitching because we have depth with Maeda & Varland. Maeda’s a solid guy that’s comfortable in the Twin Cities ……re-built elbow so his age isn’t really a negative. Not “needed” to succeed but some added pitching is needed & he seems like a natural fit that’s affordable……..certainly is a viable option.