PatPfund

All of the players mentioned in the OP are viable trade assets of varying value. Sure, trade them if that helps the team (especially in getting a top arm), but there really is no "crunch", so don't trade now just to trade, or trade to fix a problem that doesn't exist yet. (We can also deal in a more measured atmosphere after the season and before the Rule 5 draft if needed.) When Mr Froemming posted a video on this topic (and I highly recommend his YouTube channel TFTwins), I looked at the 40-man including the 60-day IL, and identified something like 18 players who are likely to leave (like Correa), have their contracts run out (lots and lots of those, and they drop off the 40 immediately after the season), need to step up their games to prove they need protecting (like Strotman, Sands or Dobnak), or are just unlikely to be picked (like Stashak or Coulombe). It's worth keeping in mind that right now, the Twins farm system isn't considered elite, and maybe not even top half. We love and see the potential in many of these players, but it is far likelier that teams gamble their roster spots on higher rated prospects from another system. We can protect most of the elites, and the rest is part of player movement. (We'll have a chance to pick up players as well.)

Time to bury the Sano/Ortiz connection forever. The Twins have stuck with Sano longer by two seasons now than they did with Ortiz, and Sano is NEVER going to be Ortiz. (In Sano's age 29 season, he has never had even 80 RBI in a season, in Ortiz's age 29 season, he was on his way to hitting 47 HR, and a career high 147 RBI, the third of 5 straight seasons over 100.) And that's okay. All he needs to be is a healthy, engaged Miguel Sano to possibly provide a spark for an offense that gets shut out A LOT. If it doesn't work, move on.

Bard would be a good and affordable pickup. I'm hoping, though, that a front-line starter is added as well, pushing someone decent out of the rotation and into the 'pen. The thought of Thielbar pitching high-leverage playoff situations (he just injured himself while finally getting his ERA under 5 for the first time since April) makes me weep in advance.

I'm not totally against an Urshela trade since I'm not seeing him back next year (unless Miranda is involved in a Montas/Castillo/?-SP trade), but... ...the "obvious" move is to simply option Celestino to StP. He has options, has plateaued, and could play every day for the Saints. Kirilloff becomes the regular LF, Sano is 1B/DH, Arraez is 1B/DH/2B, Miranda is 3B/DH, Urshela is 3B. Byron actually rests most days when not in the field (last I heard batting caused more pain that fielding). Gordon comes off the bench. Catchers probably almost never DH. Also, if (after mashing on rehab) Sano comes in swinging well, he easily has trade value. Lower than most points, but any contending team in need of a power bat would probably cough up a decent relief arm to get Sano. (Though frankly, if he's hitting, I think the Twins ride out the season with him, and I'd be okay with that even if I know he'll drive me nuts several times in the next few months.)

Well, I was alive and following the Twins in both '87 and '91. Nobody considered the '87 team a massive threat to take it all, especially when they clinched, then ended the year on a losing streak. But you are 100% wrong about '91. It was a very good team, a team with a better record than the favored Blue Jays. Here is a sentence from the Wikipedia entry on the '91 ALCS: "Newspapers were predicting a series of tense and close contests in the following ALCS, as the Twins seemed to have the slightly stronger team, but the Blue Jays had won the season series between the two teams 8-4." So hardly the "snowball's chance" of your memory. Your point about the Twins making off season moves doesn't really fit here, since we are talking trade deadline moves, not offseason where the prices are more reasonable. (Who ever said a team should make no moves in the off-season? Certainly not me.) Maybe you consider Sal, Joe, and the body of Steve Carlton to be of significance; I don't (though the Niekro nail file incident was hilarious). And your last sentence makes my point exactly. I'm not calling them cowards, but ironically applying your 'no moves means you live in fear' standard. My original point (maybe obscured in all the back and forth) is that we shouldn't make moves just to make moves. That is how the Cubs ended up giving $70 million to a solid, but health challenged pitcher like Stroman (just because you pay for an ace doesn't add talent to the signee). And helped wreck their team (along with other 'all in' moves). I'm all over this site in advocating for acquiring a #1-#2 starter, and paying for it (no, Mahle doesn't meet that standard, but a healthy Montas or Castillo would, and so would others). If we can't make a trade like that, I'm for holding on to prospects, and making stronger moves in the offseason (we'll likely have Correa's salary to play with), and come back better next year.

You probably should check up on Twins history. The '87 Twins were middling all right (85-77). And the only significant move the Twins made was to add Don Baylor for a low prospect (player to be named later, the famous Enrique Rios). Totally gutless inactivity driven by fear no doubt! The '91 Twins were NOT middling; they had the MLB's longest win streak (15 games, which you can see ending in A Few Good Men, damn that movie!), and finished 28 games over .500. They also lived in even more fear than the '87 Twins, because they made no trade deadline moves of significance. Cowards!

FYI, after tonight, Duffey's ERA (3.86) is pretty close to that of Taylor Rogers (3.72).

Option 1 is the only option. The Twins are in first, the market is dubious at best (if even possible by contract), and the Twins are in first. And in case I missed it, the Twins are in first. One of the most foolish things I've heard is that if Correa walks, we get nothing. Wrong. We get what we paid for, a chance to be competitive. The Twins are in first. We also get a championship player working with a lot of our up and coming players teaching and showing them how to be MLB players (just ask Miranda and Lewis). If we make the playoffs (likely even if we make no moves), we'll have a champion shortstop showing our historically bad post-season team how to prepare and play in that charged atmosphere. Which is worth far more than anything we could possibly get from a trade. Which would be foolish anyway, because the Twins are in first.

I don't get the Laureano talk (almost twice as valuable as Montas is goofy, especially for a 28 y.o. player who has played more 90 games once in his career, and whose best stats were back before he got caught cheating with PEDs, but I don't really care since...) ...We don't need to pay prospects to get another outfielder. We also shouldn't even be thinking Montas until he shows after 2-3 starts he can help us THIS year. If he can't, and we aren't sure about next year, then I'd top my offer at Drew Strotman (and be fine if/when the A's sucker somebody else).

Agreed, but that isn't the same as 'you have to go all-in every time you have a pair of jacks.' Look, I"m enjoying this year as a great rebound from last year's terrible Twins. But I'm also not blind. This is a solidly middle AL team. There isn't one Twins starting pitcher I'd put in the AL top 20. The 'pen is dreadful. The hitting is statistically great, but they also get shutout more than pretty much everyone. Fielding zooms from the sublime to the stupefying. We're lucky if the catchers throw out two base-stealers in a month. Our base-running is often a travesty. (My favorite part of the Twins' 8-5 triple play recently was that for once, we weren't the team running around like deranged Little Leaguers.) We are not a player away from winning it all, but we do show signs of being good with a better future (assuming we don't throw it all away, like... you know, the Cubs). This team, with full years from Maeda, Winder, Miranda, Larnach, and Kirilloff; and majority years from Paddach and Lewis should be much better even with Correa gone. I'm looking forward to seeing that team just as much as I am watching the rest of this year play out. Additions or no. Plus, if you are taking "shots" because you are afraid someone will think you are 'operating from a position of fear', then that is exactly what you ARE doing.

Eek. Where the Cubs want to be is both instructional, and a warning for the local nine. Robertson should be a target of interest, but this club also could have signed him last offseason, and if they send a good prospect, they'll essentially be giving up a good prospect, and likely a pitching prospect for 20-ish innings. So maybe this offseason, consider signing a Robertson or two at moderate pay to establish a floor under a recently terrible 'pen. (And if the Twins are terrible, you can flip them.) Stroman should be the Rip Van Winkle of sleeper prospects. Awful contract, and a damaged arm (that honestly was good, but not great when healthy). Stroman was part of the Cubs going 'all in', and they are now bust. A purely cautionary tale for the fanbase (and hopefully the Twins) about committing all of your assets for years, because you won a few games in a row. Best bet for the Twins is to look to teams with a deeper pitching inventory so they are trading position players (and prospects) for a very few arms. (Or heaven forbid, admit our team is improving, but not quite to championship level, and stand pat.) Yes, it is tougher, but as the Cruz trade showed last year, positions-for-arms can be done; if we get hooked on sending out our pitching future for 'all in' desperation plays, we won't be long in returning to where the Cubs now dwell.

At least it's ballpark (if Castillo is healthy). Though I'd look for a prospect position player to move instead of Winder, because the "pitching pipeline" has an air bubble in it (with very dubious Saints starting prospects not name Winder), and your Gray/Castillo 1 and 2 could be gone after next year.

From Baseball-Reference: Mahle, 2022: 1.8 WAR, 3W, 7L, 4.48 ERA, 92.1 IP, 102 K, 1.300 WHIP Ober, 2022: 0.1 WAR, 1W, 2L, 4.01 ERA, 33.2 IP, 29 K, 1.277 WHIP Winder, 2022: 0.5 WAR, 4W, 3L, 3.77 ERA, 45.1 IP, 29 K, 1.235 WHIP I'm not trying to say Mahle overall might not be a better pitcher than the two already in the Twins' system, but this year, Ks aside, I'd rather have Winder starting than Mahle. Ober also is in the same ballpark as Mahle. Mahle definitely helps because adding him would move one of the others to a weak bullpen, but Mahle is a #3, and unless he both is totally healthy, and thrives on the venue change (which could NOT happen as easily as it could), adding him doesn't likely move the needle much on winning a playoff series. Certainly not to be shipping top prospects for. (Sometimes the trades you don't make...) I'd love to see a big move involving top prospects for a #1-#2 starter (like Castillo or Montas if healthy), but otherwise, I'd like to keep our prospects for either development or offseason moves made with cooler heads at real prices. And just enjoy the recovery season by the Twins for what it is; a step in the right direction from being a bad division bottom feeder. Trade some AAAA players or a hot Sano for some middle bullpen help, but no reliever I've seen on the market is worth a top prospect, and without a #1-#2 SP, relievers are unlikely to make a difference in the playoffs.

If you want to trade Sano, he has to play in the majors. And as much as it pains me to say it, there is no obstacle to calling him up, because the offense is flagging. If there are no injuries in the meantime, it would be pretty easy to option out Celestino (whose batting average has shed about 70 points from its height, and who hits for zero power, pitiful RBI, and as we saw last week, can't even lay down a bunt). Gilberto should probably be playing every day in St Paul. With Jeffers out and Sanchez catching most games you have DH spots available, and can shift others around to various spots since they play various spots. I'd rather not see him, but it is also foolish to assume there is no trade value, especially if he comes up and whomps a few. No, you won't get Montas or Castillo, but some contending team with more stable pitching could throw a mid-grade reliever out there for a chance at a power boost. Don't forget the Twins got Ryan and Strotman for a power bat rental last year, and the Braves won the Series behind a batch of reclamation/cheap-pickups like Rosario and Soler. But the value is and will remain near zero as long as Sano is in the minors, so putting off a call up just increases the chances we are stuck with him for the rest of the year.

Curious to hear about those starters that keep us in the game through 5, because we've been down and into the 'pen by the 4th A LOT lately. (The least talented of the bunch is Bundy, and he is the one pitching with the most guts lately.) This team needs a top starter to compete in the playoffs, we don't need anything to compete for a division title and early exit. Winder is currently your third best starter on the MLB team (even if he IS in the minors), and if you trade him for another #3 along with some top prospects, that is a staight lose-lose. And FYI, don't sweat the 40-man until post-season. I just looked at it, and between players who are leaving (like Correa) and players whose contracts will be up, and players not good enough to sweat getting taken, and players you wish would get taken, I count 18 players on the 40-man the Twins could skip protecting right now. That should clear plenty of space for those who will need protection come December.

I'd understand this problem more if the Twins were loaded at starting pitcher. But they are not. Right now, Josh Winder is the third best starter on this team, and if Ryan doesn't snap out of it pretty soon, then Winder will be the second best starter on this team. A team with marginal starting pitching shouldn't be debating moving a guy with the starting stats quoted in the OP to the freakin' pen or AAA. He should be in the rotation until the numbers regress, or you start skipping spots to limit his innings. As for the Bundy/Archer/Ober/Smeltzer problems this creates? Tough. It's baseball, and you tell them all if they want to be in the rotation, then pitch better than Winder. (Love the Archer potential, but his surgically repaired hip isn't holding up even with restricted use? That's bad. Give him some rope and time, but if he can't stay healthy, and won't accept a 'pen role, then you let him go. Same with Bundy, though he intrigues me more as a bullpen arm; love his character even if he's looking threadbare in the rotation. And, yeah, I totally could see him starting a playoff game. Say against Tampa who has already been wiped out by Winder. Though I'd rather see him start Game 4 after Castillo/Montas/OtherReallyGoodPitcher, Gray, and Ryan.

The OP looks spot on. Duffey has looked much better these last few weeks. I remember him saying they were working on a new mix, and I internally scoffed, but it's working to get him serviceable again, and in this 'pen, that's gold. Now, can it hold!?

I'll take Chapman as the exception that proves the rule. The Cubs had one of the best teams in baseball with a World Series winning manager already in place, but were missing that one piece. The Yankees were willing since they weren't winning it that year, and they had the relationship to get Chapman right back in free agency. Chapman was the most dominating arm in the game. So if you want to name the most dominating reliever in baseball, and you think we are only one piece away from winning it all (which I know isn't true from your posts including the one quoted), and you believe we have a post-season wizard managing the Twins (which I also suspect might not be true), then, yeah. Send a top prospect to make your championship team even better. But I have seen nobody name an arm dominating the game the way Chapman did, I think our manager is okay, but not great, I would say we are a decent team, but not a great one, and I don't think our rotation is anything more than solid; certainly not good enough to average 5 innings per start against a mediocre Texas team, let alone playoff competition. So sending top prospects for a reliever is goofy IMO. At all times, but especially for this team.

Wilson Ramos was a two-time All Star, and Silver Slugger winner at a position the Twins were about to be in dire need of filling. And then you make my point precisely. Capps (who was a waiver claim months before, and would be out of baseball not too long afterward) was acquired for the playoffs instead of the starter the Twins needed (Ramos originally was the key piece in a Cole Hamels trade). Without the needed starter, the Twins never had a lead in the playoffs for Capps to protect, and he was useless. In the playoffs. (Through no fault of his own.) This team needs a very good starter first. Only then will the 'pen matter.

The Twins bullpen is ragged, but... Prices are inflated by desperation in mid-season.... The team has shown they can already win the division even if they make no moves.... A reliever or two as the only midseason adds might pad a division lead, but is not good enough to win a playoff series from the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, or Tampa (our most likely opponents).... ....so the only thing worth trading a top prospect for is a #1 or #2 level pitcher. Castillo, a healthy Montas, and likely several more who might become available as teams fade in the next couple weeks. Only that will make a major difference in the postseason, and only success in the postseason this year is worth paying the inflated prices at the trade deadline. Then sure, add relievers, but don't send out top prospects for somebody not even good enough to start. Take the three named here. Maybe the best one (Santana) was available for a DFA claim one year ago. The second (Rainey) is 29 with a career ERA of 5.5+. The third has control issues (great name, Diaz, but a Moran by any other name...). Why would we want multiple years of that? Relievers are notoriously up and down in their careers. (Like Minaya; almost free to us last year, he helped save the bullpen last season, and this year.... he's mediocre to bad.) Get a top starter instead, or trade a couple fungible assets (like Strotman) for a couple fungible arms, and enjoy the solid comeback season with hopes they can be even better next year.

The Capps trade is the real danger, because as the OP pointed out, Matt Capps was good for the rest of the season. But I don't think he even appeared in the playoffs (tough to put the closer in when you are down several runs), and then he was bad. The problem was they gave up their top prospect for a reliever. (Someone mentioned Mauer was locked in at catcher, and that was true. Until the very next year.) NO RELIEVER is worth a top prospect, unless they will put you in the World Series that same year. Because NO RELIEVER can be counted on for the long term to make the loss of the prospect worthwhile. This team's lead need is starting pitching, and not another middle arm. They need a #1 - #2 or they are not going to make it out of the first round of any playoff series regardless of what they do with the 'pen. Get a #1 (which WILL take top prospects), and then it would be worth sending lower prospects or position players for relief help. If you can't get a #1, make a fringe move to keep people happy, and do your real trading for the future in the off-season when you are not paying panic prices.

This is a good article, in that it sparked a lot of reaction, but it is also a bit goofy in trying to compare a dynasty team (where sure you will have a stable group of players probably keeping the team at the top most years) to a team that won 2 World Series, but 4 years apart (and with very different rosters). And worse, to a team holding the all-time professional sports record for consecutive playoff losses. We probably want to hold off on naming championship core players until we at least win a playoff series, then win one again the next year.

Good article. Everyone is locked in on the bullpen now because of recent meltdowns, but a #1-2 starter is the only thing that will make a serious difference in our playoff chances. Spending prospects to have a better bullpen to beat out Cleveland to win a crummy division is goofy. Without an elite rotation leader, but with a better bullpen, this team might break the playoff streak (might), but will be a serious underdog against likely playoff matchups. Of the players you name, only Lopez and Castillo would tempt me right now into a serious offer (probably a few drawn from a pool of Larnach, Martin, Steer, Balazovic, SWR, Canterino, etc). Montas is hurt, and until he definitively shows he is not, Oakland would be lucky to get half of what they could have had two weeks ago. Mahle and Kelly are nice (well, maybe they could be), but they aren't even as good as Winder right now (who shouldn't be on the edge of anything; he is the team's 3rd best starting pitcher). If you can't get an elite SP, spend one or two of your fungible AAAA starters like Strotman/Sands for an extra bullpen arm, win the Central, and save the prospects for the offseason or next year. (Seriously, don't repeat the stupidity of sending an everyday elite prospect, like, say, Wilson Ramos, for a supposed back-end bullpen savior, like, say Matt Capps, only to have the Twins swept out of the playoffs so badly they don't even get to use their 'savior'. Who FYI could be out of baseball in two years because that's life as a relief pitcher.)

I think he's part of the solution. I suspect he is someone whose overuse shows more in pitches getting hittable than in injury. More depth in the bullpen (internally or through trade) would help.

Here is the problem with 'data' driven discussions. You line up a series of stats and percentages in neat columns, and add some color coding along with a 'clear rule of thumb'. And it MEANS NOTHING out of context. By these columns, you would think Thielbar is one of the key members, maybe THE key member of the bullpen, which, frankly, is all you need to condemn this analysis. In the real world these comparative percentages are not comparable at all since Duran is routinely faced with the opposition's best hitters, while Thielbar faces curated matchups, and often fails at them (like facing the bottom of the order last week, and filling the bases with not outs, or filling them and giving up a grand slam). His ERA has been over 5 since April, opponents have an on-base percentage of .323 against him, he strikes out about 10% of those he faces, and his WAR says he is a half game WORSE than a AAA replacement. Duran (again, against elite opponents) has an ERA of 2.00, opponents bat .195 against him with an OBA of .243,, Jhoan strikes out 34% of those he faces, and his WAR is 1.5. For those who have followed the Twins this year, which set of comparative stats paints a more accurate picture as you see it? The OP is not wrong in needing to assess in-house options, but hopefully a more rigorous assessment is running in the Twins' organization. (Caleb should be closer to getting bounced than to consistent high leverage situations.)