Rod Carews Birthday

Upon reading this article, I was drawn to looking up each of these past players' debut seasons (and career). It was decidedly a mixed bag as some went on to more good years and others flamed out quickly. One player who I think we certainly under-appreciate is Denard Span. His first two years were really excellent and his overall career numbers are solid as well. Back to this article, it strikes me that any of these players could make an impact, albeit in very different ways. The easiest to see would be ERod, as any amount of ineffectiveness or injury would open a spot for him to come in and shine. I'm not sure what to make of Keaschall. He seems very promising but I think there are probably too many guys in the way who are likely to get their chances to succeed or fail before he gets there. The two pitchers are talented, but unless they go to the bullpen, I would be hard pressed to see them in the rotation unless something went horribly wrong with our pitching staff. I think the most likely outcomes for this year would be ERod getting his shot and Prielipp coming up through the bullpen. The others probably need to wait. On the other hand, Zebby Matthews, who while not officially a rookie, could really break out if given an opportunity this year. I'm anxious for the new season already!

So you’re saying there’s a chance!

Wow! NO. I can't fathom giving up much for a light hitting, good fielding backup outfielder. Certainly not a starting pitcher. I would send Randy Dobnak, but that's about it.

Why is it that we have seemingly cast aside any hope of Julien becoming a big league regular? He had a terrible year last year, but was outstanding the year before with the bat. In fact, his career numbers are still better than most of those who are being counted on. What exactly has Lee done to give us confidence that he will be a big league regular? Lewis can’t stay on the field. Keaschall looks like a good minor leaguer right now with a solid future, but we don’t really know that either. I’ve said this before on here — an 850 OPS will excuse every fielding problem that we think he has. I wouldn’t bet against him getting that if he gets the time on the field.

If he’s an excellent bat, no one will care if he’s not a great defender. An 850 OPS will overcome a lot of doubts, and he could be capable of that if he figures things back out.

Since Lee seemingly had a freshman slump, how bad would he have to be to have a sophomore slump?

So instead of a "throw the bums out" election, this was a "throw the bums in" election!

I don't necessarily quibble with the metric chosen, although more data could have been important and enlightening. However, I think a comprehensive listing of Twins MVPs would have been in order for this article along with a title (less click-baity for sure) like "How Do Recent Twins MVPs Stack Up Against Twins All-time MVPs". By the title of the article you imply that Willi Castro must suck because he is "among the worst", when in fact, he played very well, was very valuable, and the team was lucky to have him. That does him a disservice. Others, on the other hand, underachieved at an extreme rate, which is why someone with lower level stats is the MVP. Not calling this to attention moves the blame from poorly performing players to someone who performed well.

I think that yoga is a fantastic idea, but not ONLY yoga (or not forever yoga). Changing it up is pretty important. The difficulty with the non-stop training in specific areas is that it builds up very specific muscles, allowing others to atrophy and throwing it all out of balance. Lack of flexibility is also a huge problem. When kids play whatever sport is in season, it is really good cross-training, even though they don't know it.

Well. . . at least we're not the White Sox!

I've long been a believer that managers get way too much credit and way too much blame for what they accomplish with their team. I think this article reinforces that opinion for me. Team success has much more to do with success (and failure, and injury) of individual players than it has to do with which buttons the manager happens to press. That doesn't mean there are no bad managerial decisions. However, the "good" decisions tend to be balanced by the "bad" decisions, and vice versa, with the whole group of decisions tending to result in something near zero. In 2019, Rocco Baldelli was a "genius" and this year he was an "idiot". Neither of these are true but yet we, as fans, choose to look at it that way. Recently the Guardians replaced their "legendary" "genius" manager and the new guy took them to unexpected heights this season. What does that say? I'm also not sure that all of those base running results are really about the manager. If Rocco were managing Ricky Henderson, all of those metrics would look better, but the Twins aren't built that way. An article this past week pointed out that the Twins don't bunt because they aren't suited to bunt as individual players - that one definitely passes both the eye test and the foot speed test. Don't misunderstand my skepticism of metrics for managers, it is a worthy pursuit, but much of the evidence of success or failure will end up being anecdotal. Did decision A apparently lead to outcome B and was that a good or a bad thing? What is the clubhouse atmosphere? Does the manager tend to put players into situations in which they can succeed? No numbers. No statistics. Equally important (perhaps more important) to the evaluation.

We can HOPE that it will make a difference, but there are certainly no guarantees. I've been disappointed often enough that a solid 1/2 season sounds like a good deal to me. A "perfectly healthy" Byron Buxton could get hurt swinging at the first pitch on opening day next year. That being said, I would rather have him going into the offseason healthy than recovering from surgery. Byron. . . no skydiving, no snowboarding, and no bull riding this winter!

Some of these guys could be helpful, but I worry that we are overreacting to this past season’s team. Yes, there were certainly times when some additional team speed would have been good to have, but if the hitters hit, there is much less problem with that. I’m supportive of more team speed but I don’t just want to go out there to get guys who “battle their tails off” but can’t actually hit.

This is a solid idea if you feel good enough about your cadre of starters to make it happen. The other thing is that this can be a floating target a little. The team could start on a six man rotation schedule, then if someone needs a couple of starts off for minor injury, etc, you flip back to five. Then, when the starters are available again, you can flip back up to six.

No huge surprises. I was hoping Severino could put it together and become a power hitter, but it looks like that’s not going to happen.

Count me as a person who is on the fence about Brooks Lee's future. I don't think that he is going to wash out and be out of the league, but I'm not sure he is destined for stardom either. This year, to me, is his prove-it year. Up until now he hasn't even close to lived up to the image the hype machine created for him. For many teams, with a normal payroll, signing him to the contract you outline above would be a chance worth taking, as that is only the kind of money that you would pay someone who is just "decent", plus having an option for some additional years is nice. But for the Twins, on the limited budget that they often have, long-term money isn't a great thing to add to the bottom line. I THINK he will be at least OK, but I definitely don't know that. I know that this is a ridiculous comparison (apples to Buicks?), but the Dobnak contract seemed like a good idea at the time and now we would really like that measly $3M back for this year's payroll.

It wouldn't shock me if Miranda wound up being a decent first baseman defensively, while hitting reasonably enough to keep the job. However, it also wouldn't shock me the other way and he washes out. He's a very strange player. He has enough of a track record that we should be able to project him better, but that track record was so inconsistent and injury affected that we can't really do that. For me, I'm ok with him as plan A at 1B. I also think that is where Julien winds up as well. They are both as athletic as Arraez, who we were comfortable using there (perhaps only while he was a batting title contender though). I could see a platoon between the two or perhaps a little more equal time share, like we do with our catching tandem.

FANTASTIC! This was a signing that was greeted with skepticism by many. It turns out that Santana had a lot left in the tank. Way to go! I wonder what it would take to re-sign him? I hate playing against Father Time, but it might be worth a shot.

“ Which player is the most critical building block? ” I think that the most critical building block is actually Correa. He has the kinds of baseball skills and leadership skills to make those around him better. There are other good players, but to me, he’s the only guy that is THE guy.

I probably read these two articles incorrectly. Not sure if this is a ranking of most likely to be traded (I can’t imagine that’s true) or a ranking of projected return from a trade (can’t see that either). I think that it’s some combination of both, or likely a “buncha” players that could be traded, who we think of as core players. I think “high” likelihood of trade on an individual basis would only be Paddack, Vasquez, and Castro. I think that the chances of Correa or Buxton being traded are close to zero. I think that all of these players are potential trade chips if you can trade something from a slight surplus for something that fills a need. Individually none are likely to be traded, but collectively, I would bet somebody gets traded.

I think this is pretty accurate. The parts that were directly in the trade didn’t do anything for anybody, with the caveat that it’s possible the Twins could gain a little something out of it yet. However, without the money saved there would likely have been no Carlos Santana, and I’m pretty certain life without Santana would have been even uglier than it was with him.

I think that in order to improve this team, some trades will need to be made and that means that we will need to trade someone that we would rather not. For a 6-10 list, this seems reasonable, but I’m anxious to see 1-5 as well. For me personally, Brooks Lee would be higher on my list of players to trade because I’m not convinced that he’s going to be as outstanding as some think he will be, and Matt Wallner would be lower because he’s the best true slugger that we have. I would rather not trade Ober, but for the right offer, I’m willing. Since Ober, Ryan, and Lopez all become free agents at the same time in a couple of years, moving one of them now to stagger that impact might be a good idea — particularly if we can fill another need by doing so. The pair of Jax and Duran. I think we definitely should trade one of them. Not sure who has the higher value. Jax had a career year last year while Duran had a bit of a down year, but Duran has the track record of being ridiculous. Having both is a nice luxury, but capitalizing on value now might help the team a bit more. Unfortunately, no one is going to give us a big haul for a relief pitcher, no matter how good they are, so we should be prepared to be disappointed for the return (which means that they may not be dealt after all). My 5-1 looks like this. . . Lopez AND Ryan occupying one spot at 5 (both medium, like Ober). Only one of the three would be dealt, but I think Lopez and Ryan are ever so slightly more likely than Ober. Next at 4 would be Julien AND Larnach (both high). They both have potential but might be the odd man out of the team’s plans. Return for either of these guys wouldn’t be huge. Number 3 is Vasquez (very high). They will try to trade him, but finding a team to pick up a lot of his salary will be difficult. This trade will only be made possible by another, bigger trade for a young catcher. At number 2 I have Paddack (boiling high) He can be a serviceable pitcher, but his price tag and the availability of young pitching makes him an easy trade candidate. I think Willi Castro (the hydrogen fusion heat of the sun) is the number 1 candidate to be traded, which makes me sad because I really like him. His return could be medium-ish, but with a player or prospect added, I think could bring a piece of at least some impact. These guys aren’t all going to be traded. My over-under number is 2.5 on this list. Who will be traded is all entwined with who else is traded and who is acquired. For example, if we make a “big” trade and get a catcher of the future, Vasquez is as good as gone. If we don’t, he’s probably back, even at that price tag. I think there are certainly prospects that could be traded for some good value as a part of a package.. Luke Keashall comes to mind, as would one of our lower level pitchers. If one of Hellman or Kiersay makes the team next spring, I think the other one will be dealt. I’m sure there are others that would be candidates as well. If my list frustrates you, remember that I’m the guy who wanted to trade Max Kepler for a bag of used baseballs in the summer of 2023 right before he got really hot. So. . . What do I know?

I believe you’ve pegged the off season well. I won’t like it, but I wonder if the easiest trade to make would be to trade Pablo Lopez. I don’t think I like it either, but Ober was essentially just as good last year and Ryan was maybe a little better but not as reliable due to injury — AND they don’t cost much. If my math is correct, all three are controlled for three more years, which means they all come up at once for free agency. IF you could trade Lopez for a young rotation piece that you like and/or a first baseman/catcher, you have freed up $20+M and maybe not weakened the team as much as you think, PLUS you have some money to spend in other areas. I know, it seems crazy, and I don’t really want to see it happen, but it might be the solution to both financial issues and to solidifying either the catcher position or first base. It just might make too much sense not to do it.

If you could make a trade for a starting level catcher for Luke Keashall as the centerpiece, I would grab that in a second. I think Keashall could become a fine player, but locking up the catcher situation — one we are generally not happy with — for the next few years would be amazing. I don’t know if the right answer is Rushing, Tell, Quero, or somebody else, but this would be well worth it. I think that every prospect below ERod, Jenkins, and Raya should definitely be on the table for trades, and I think you listen even on them (although I would need to be blown away to bite on one). On the major league side, Buxton and Correa aren’t going anywhere, but otherwise, I think you also listen. I would always be hesitant to trade starting pitching (like Ryan/Ober), but the right deal might change my mind. The Twins lineup is good enough that improving it will involve subtracting somebody that we may actually like.

This is indeed the right answer. Most of us could only hope to have Kiriloff's baseball career, and even though it didn't live up to MLB All-Star standards, he should be commended for it. It seems to be apparent that his back issues (or some other injury) are a driving factor in this, because if he were healthy, he would certainly be able to play next year somewhere, whether it were with the Twins or not. Hopefully, his back can recover enough to give him a normal life. Good luck and thanks, Alex!