Rod Carews Birthday
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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday
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I like it. When it comes to conclaves, I would be more partial to Angels and Demons, where the frontrunners are all kidnapped and then . . . . The last man standing gets the job! -
They seem like good signings, but as @Fire Dan Gladden said, they are soooooooo far away. It’s important, and they should keep doing it. Sometimes it works (Polanco, Sano, Kepler). I wonder what the overall success rate is with international signings. I think it’s even tougher to hit on a 16 year old international prospect than with the draft, which is already tough.
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Since I don’t own a team that’s a tough question. Assuming we’re both dealing at least a little from slight surplus areas of our roster and that I need an infielder, I would offer up a #4/5 starter or a young outfielder or possibly even a catcher. If we really want a catcher, I would try to package Julien with Paddack. It won’t get you an all star, but it might get you someone that could split time with Jeffers and enable you to sell Vasquez to the best salary relief you can find.
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I would love to have some players added, but it doesn't look like that's in the budget. Offensively, there's no black hole going into the season, which hasn't always been the case. They indeed have a number of individual question marks going into the season, but if they need three infield spots to work out, I choose to believe that at least three of Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Lee, Keaschall, and Castro will provide above average offense. Will one of them be bad? Probably, but it is also likely that one of them could be very good. I would rather give the at bats to someone with potential upside than to a washed up veteran or a quad A fill in. If you think they haven't had the bats the last four years, then we are probably letting the perfect get in the way of the good. You're absolutely correct that the bats aren't as good as 2019, when they were a murderer's row, but they were a lot closer to the top than the bottom for the past four years. Consistency was notably absent at the end of last season, but I think the bats will be there. If everything goes right, it's a 90+ win team -- the pitching could carry them there. If everything goes wrong -- injuries, etc, it's a 75 win team. My best guess is 85-86 wins. You can be not satisfied with that, but I'd rather be in a pennant race than relegated to the second division purgatory for a bunch of years. We went through that in the 70's, the 80's, and the 90's. It was too painful for me. They were so bad that I practically stopped following the team and had to keep relearning the players' names when they got competitive again!
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- derek falvey
- pablo lopez
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I appreciate (and mostly agree with) your optimism Seth. The rotation and bullpen will be fine without any more moves. The lineup is a question mark, but not without potential. Much is being made about how much we have to improve our offense to compete. OK. Let’s roll with that. I think it is very likely that our overall numbers at every outfield position improve offensively — Wallner will be much better than Kepler, Buxton is as healthy as he is going to get, and Larnach or a committee should match last year’s production in Left. The catching tandem will likely be similar with Jeffers leading the way, but I would take the over on Vasquez offense, meaning there is improvement there. In the infield, keeping Correa healthy will be key. If he’s healthy he will put up the numbers. SOMEONE will step up at second base - maybe Castro, Lee, Julien, or Keashall. The first base/third base combination of Lewis and Miranda should do fine as well. Defensively, we will miss Santana severely, but I think a healthy Miranda (and maybe a little Julien) will replace his offensive contribution. There. I said it. I think that this year’s team with last year’s players can put up better numbers than last year’s did — at very least they could be a little more consistent.
- 94 replies
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- derek falvey
- pablo lopez
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Comparing the stat line of Lewis and Julien over the last two months of the season yields a much closer comparison. Neither of them were hitting a lick and Brooks Lee has yet to demonstrate that he can hit ANY pitches, let alone Major League breaking pitches. My point here isn’t to demean Lewis or Lee. My point is that you are being very dismissive of a player who came up and did very well. Now it’s time to adjust. Let him do that. This “unteachable” player has already demonstrated that he could get serious about his fielding and has had some results to show for it. It seems unlikely that he will be so “unteachable” with regard to hitting that he won’t be able to develop just like players like Larnach and Wallner (and for that matter Buxton a few years ago) didn’t develop. Oh wait a minute. . . they did.
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Are we judging him by who is now or what he was in the past when he was just getting started? He has obviously developed since that time. As stated by others, stolen bases are not a priority for the team -- you can disagree with that philosophy (and that's OK, but not a part of this argument), but it is pretty apparent and true. His defensive stats, while not amazing, are definitely trending in the right direction enough to justify his holding the position given his bat. The Twins have definitely rostered worse defenders over the past few decades than Jeffers, please stop suggesting that he is terrible or unplayable like you have with so many other players on this site. A team full of Brooks Robinsons will probably only score 400 runs per season, so that is likely not the answer either.
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If you could get a deal done for four years in the 30's, that would be pretty great. It seems likely he will make around $15M for the next two years in arbitration -- more if he breaks out a little more. That means that in 27 and 28 you would be paying him around $15 - 20M for two more years, OR TRANSLATED, probably less money per year than we are paying Vasquez now.
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We obviously disagree on Julien's value, which is just fine. However, "IF Julien indeed fixes his problems" you are expecting next year's list to be different. Certainly true. He could very well rocket quite a ways up the list (development is a marathon, not a sprint) -- perhaps from 20th to the top ten. The premise of my point was that Julien's problems as manifest so far in his career aren't that different than those of Brooks Lee (who hasn't hit anything at all) and Royce Lewis (who seemed to have forgotten how to hit at the end of the year). Even though they also had issues, we seem to collectively give them a free pass. Taking your premise that hope isn't a strategy, does that put the two of them off the list as well?
- 58 replies
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- edouard julien
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If he can be had for a simple waiver claim, it's a no-brainer. If we have to pay something in trade, then we need to investigate his fall off a little more seriously. HOWEVER, if we have someone in the system that we like, I wouldn't want this lottery ticket taking playing time away from someone who we think we might believe in.
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- jair camargo
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This is a really cool article. My compliments to the research on this compelling story from yesteryear. Sometimes history is just sitting out there and we charge by without paying attention. Thanks for making me stop to observe. I wonder how many stories like this exist in other cities as well.
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Maybe. But maybe not. Have Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis been exposed too? Lee didn’t really hit at all and Lewis hit (and stayed in) a long nasty slump the last major portion of the season. Many are counting on them as key pieces and yet both have less plate appearances in the majors than Julien. I’m continually surprised that many people have seemingly written off Julien completely after last year. I think that we would find that he still has a fair amount of trade value if he were made available. To suppose he is “exposed” implies an inability to learn and make adjustments to his game. Last offseason, the complaint was that he was a butcher at second base, however, when 2024 started, he came in with substantially improved defense (although some will painfully argue against that point). That tells me that he has already demonstrated an ability to learn and improve in one area. It may take some time spent at AAA, but why not hitting next? He’s done it every year of his career except last year. If the over/under is Julien being “exposed” and not having any more MLB career, then I’ll take the over every time.
- 58 replies
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- edouard julien
- marco raya
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I take your point, but not entirely dishonest. The strawman argument is the disingenuous assertion ABOUT analytics that gets thrown out at every turn whenever Rocco Baldelli’s name is brought up. “It’s too much”. “Spreadsheet manager”. “He’s on his computer again.” . On and on it goes, when in reality nobody really knows “how much” goes into it except for Rocco Baldelli. When people say “I dislike Baldelli because he platoons too much” or “I think he is too quick to pinch hit” I will buy the argument whether I agree with it or not. But too often the criticism just takes the form of the same old platitudes over and over again that lack specificity to the point of being nothing but noise, so I choose to call to call it out.
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THIS. EXACTLY. It’s amazing how a word or two can become a weapon that just gets tossed in no matter what the argument. The argument as I understand it is that Rocco Baldelli isn’t a good manager because he uses “analytics” too much and/or manages “with a spreadsheet”, and that it would be better if he managed “by feel” and “with his gut”. YIKES! To me, managing with his gut would seem to suggest a guy sitting in his lazy boy with a beer just throwing stuff out there. What information exactly does anyone think goes into a managerial decision from the gut? I would think that it would involve information based on the experience of the manager and the perceived tendencies of the player(s) involved. That’s it. Spreadsheet or no, analytics is a part of everything we do. The implication that he manages “with a spreadsheet” to me implies that he is considering so much data, mere pencil and paper nor human mind can keep track of it all. That seems OK. “From the gut” implies a careless attitude about decision making and I don’t think any of us want that. For the record, I am Baldelli indifferent. I don’t think that he (or any manager) makes us great or makes us terrible. The right players make any manager look really good. In answer to the original question, yes, with the team for sale he’s probably a lame duck unless he has a spectacular season. I see that as little cause for distress nor celebration.
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Is Feduccia better than Gaspar? He might be, but it's definitely not obvious. He strikes me as someone who the Dodgers can't use that's been dressed up in a nice suit and showcased. I'm not sold.
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I'm sure that Dobnak is available to any team that wants to take over his contract. We're not "hanging on" to Dobnak. We just can't get anyone to take the salary.
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Not enthralled with the return. A pitcher and a catcher would be fine, but I'd like them to be better than these two guys. Just because they are coming from the "World Champion" Dodgers doesn't make prospects better than if they come from anywhere else, but sometimes we are just as guilty of big market bias as the media is.
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- jhoan duran
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Actually in 1979, a $1.8M salary would have been a huge deal, not something minor. Our top salary that year was indeed a closer, Mike Marshall, who made $300K. The minimum salary was $21K. back then so the investment was substantially smaller. In fact, the first million dollar player, Nolan Ryan, came in 1980.
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The thought that individual fans can organize themselves in such a way as to affect the bottom line of the club in any meaningful amount is silly. If you are frustrated, which is understandable, you have the ability to spend your time and money elsewhere, but don't be deceived about its effect.
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Among position players, I worry most about Wallner. His strikeout rate with a limited track record means that he will always be living on the edge and could fall apart. On the other hand, there are plenty of hitters who have not only lived, but thrived on that edge -- even a few HOFers. Among pitchers, Duran scares me. In 2023, he was ridiculous. Nobody could touch him. In 2024, with just a little velocity lost, he was just "good". Lose another tick and he could be in real trouble. Personally, I would trade him. Now is the time. You have Jax as the closer and a lot of solid bullpen arms. He could correct himself and be back to his unhittable ways, but I would rather let someone else worry about that. On the starting staff, outside of the injury threat which is always present, Lopez and Ryan don't scare me at all. Neither of them seems to need to bring their best stuff to every game while still being effective. For me, they are ceasing to be "young pitchers" and are morphing into "dependable veteran pitchers". If either of them had the dream season where everything goes right and they always have their best stuff, they would positively be amazing. Ober is close, but I feel like he still needs a little bit of seasoning to get there. Could one of them regress? Sure, but I think they are pretty dependable at this point. Now SWR on the other hand. . . hmmmm. Expecting him to repeat his 2024 performance might be a stretch.
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- carlos correa
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Moran also was left exposed to the rule 5 and no one took him (for almost free). So. . . the trade was rule 5 guy for former rule 5 guy. On paper, that's a good one because the former rule 5 guy did enough to warrant adding him to the 40 man roster while the current rule 5 guy did so little he was left unprotected (and untaken).
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I do think that this is possible, but I think that the common opinion on TD is that his bat is cooked and that he will never regress back to what he was from 2019-2022. What I don't think will happen is that he will be worse in 25 than he was in 24. He kind of is what he is, which considering his defense, isn't nothing. The big question is whether the Twins will step up the payroll slightly to keep everyone on board.
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- carlos correa
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This. There doesn't seem to be a ton of urgency to trade to dump salary, AND they tendered Willi Castro (which was the right decision regardless). Maybe "won't cut payroll" just means that they will roll the team back out there and hope for some positives to go their way this summer. Probably not, but a guy can hope!
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- james mccann
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Agreed that Margot didn't move the bar except backward, but Miller did manage to work his OPS back up to .668 -- AFTER being demoted from AA to A+ (Yikes!). I think fault is at the feet of the Twins for giving Margot so many at bats and not cutting bait, but they didn't exactly give up a kings ransom to get him. On paper, the acquisition wasn't terrible, but on the field it was a disaster. They needed to recognize it sooner and give those at bats to a player that actually might have a future with the team.
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Oops almost forgot the most important question. Which is better, Gaspar's mustache or Austin Martin's use of face paint?
