Rod Carews Birthday
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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday
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Rah rah and style is fine if you have the other two. It just doesn't work alone, and my fear is that the team becomes obsessed with the rah rah and forgets the important stuff. -
I guess, but I think the article was just arguing that making a splashy move was as important as making the right move. I disagree with that. Making moves to make moves is just churn, which usually doesn't result in anything gained -- it's style over substance. Having spent 35 years teaching an elective area to H.S. students, I learned long ago that a program of high quality and deep substance will outdraw and out achieve one based on rah rah and style. Indeed, times may be changing but quality never goes out of style.
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If you can effectively identify the right pitchers to take from the HS level, it’s fantastic, because you can get a player before someone else has a chance to grab them. On the other hand, focusing on college age pitchers means that you are depending on them developing in college, which may or may not happen, or that they can be damaged goods once you get them (i.e. Rice). One benefit of grabbing college level hurlers in the draft, however, is that they can (usually) get to the majors faster after you draft them.
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I wouldn’t trade the pair for any other, unless I could cherry pick two other specific ones off of the top 10 list. We’re pretty lucky to have them, and as discussed here and elsewhere is what makes the bullpen elite. Our projected #3 guy, Sands, would likely be number two on most teams and an unfortunate #1 on others. Forcing good relievers like that down in the pecking order makes a ton of difference. By the end of the season, I expect to see Varland in a solid role in the pen as well. The wild cards at this point are Paddack — will he be here, will he be starting? — and Stewart — can we keep him healthy? As usual, a lot of noise is made about the innings from our starters. Absolutely, it is important for starters to go as deep as they effectively can in order to not work the pen. However, the Twins’ innings from starters is well above average (I believe #2 in the league in 2023) so wanting more innings is more of a want than an actual deficiency compared to the rest of the league. I like the starters. I like the bullpen. If this team can hit a little, I like our chances!
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I think it's important to spend some money on bullpen arms if you don't have enough good bullpen arms. Right now, I think the Twins are in a pretty good spot -- it's one of the reasons I'm glad Jax is staying in the pen. Certainly every good bullpen is just an injury or two away from mediocrity, but I think that any extra money they find under their pillow would be better spent on a bat somewhere. So. . . yes, I believe their bullpen philosophy is justified -- at least with this current group of players.
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It is pretty difficult to refute that the Twins haven't made a lot of amazing last minute additions to the team by waiting out the market in the past few years, but I would argue that no one else has either - at least not while shopping in the same budget range as the Twins. They have had a few successes though, so I suppose they have played that game about as well as anybody else has. If the Twins had the budget to go after higher levels of free agents or be more willing to take on larger salaries, it would be much simpler to acquire players of impact for the team. However, given their current situation, I really doubt that the reason for their lack of success is a lack of strategic timing. It's $$$.
- 65 replies
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- kenta maeda
- carlos santana
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Rankings by their nature are pretty subjective unless you establish objective criteria -- trade value, value to future of team, ultimate career value, WAR, this year vs. future vs. career, etc. That being said, it's a fun exercise. For me, there are two misplaced people on the list. I think SWR should be higher on the list -- he's done it well at the MLB level for most of a season and that is worth a lot. I think Brooks Lee should be lower on the list -- he needs to prove he can hit. After a flashy start with the bat, he was pretty much terrible, looking confused and lost before making enough contact to ground out to the infield. I think it is also worth noting that these two players really moved in opposite directions in the past year. SWR was being written off by many and now has climbed in peoples opinions, while Brooks Lee was the "surefire rookie of the year" candidate who now doesn't look very shiny. I hope SWR can keep it going and I hope Lee can recover.
- 27 replies
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- walker jenkins
- luke keaschall
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Reading this article through it seems to prove the point to me that Sands is well-served in the bullpen and the bullpen is well-served with him in it. His stuff plays there pretty well (so far) and he is having his first real major league success there. An additional reason to keep him in the bullpen with four years of team control left is that he is going to still be here after Jax and Duran have reached free-agency (we could re-sign them, but don't bet on it). By creating a situation where not everyone good is leaving at once, you make your bullpen and team more sustainable than if you are trying to re-establish a bullpen every year - year after year.
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That’s a nice list of players who are young, controllable, and somewhat projectable for the Twins. I think that the highest WAR will be produced by whichever of the three pitchers — SWR, Matthews, or Festa — gets the most starts for the Twins in 2025. I think all three of them have solid futures, but opportunities to perform may vary based on perceptions, injuries, and effectiveness. Of the position players, I think that Keirsey will have the best chance for impact. Unfortunately, a chunk of this will be filling in for Byron Buxton, in the event of injury. I think that Brooks Lee may have potential, but he really needs to recover from last year’s poor offensive season (I know he was injured for part of it, but he was pretty bad). I think he starts back at AAA and others are given the chance to play at 2nd base — perhaps this means that the Twins think he has more potential to develop, as opposed to Austin Martin, who may break camp as a utility guy because that is what he appears to be. With all of them, there is hope that they take a big step forward, and likely some will, but there is also the fear of second year regression, which we have experienced plenty of times in the past.
- 43 replies
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- brooks lee
- david festa
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The Time for "Getting Creative" Is Upon Us
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oh how interesting it would be to be inside Derek Falvey's head at this point. I would assume he has a list of 10 or more players that he thinks might be realistic that he would really like to have. Equally interesting, and probably more enlightening for Twins fans, would be the list of guys that he is really willing to part with. (Yes, I agree, no one is untouchable for the right price, but. . . ). It's also hard to know whether there has been ground work laid by front offices just waiting to pull the trigger or whether all is quiet out there. At the end of the day, it doesn't take long for two GM's to potentially pull the trigger on a trade, so I'm really not writing anything off until the umpire says "Play Ball" on opening day. -
This is a pretty weird hypothetical. That’s not how baseball works, and even historically there have been trades. If people want to be entertained by it, OK, but its lack of relevancy makes it pretty uninteresting for me.
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I’m in the skeptical group as to whether Austin Martin can develop into a good backup CFer. However, I think that giving him as many reps there as possible in spring training games is an excellent idea. There is a little window right now, before Rodriguez, et al. are ready to go, and seeing what we have in Austin Martin is a good way to fill it — especially in spring training games. If he responds well to it, we have a fantastic problem and a piece of trade material. If he doesn’t, we can effectively move on from him.
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You are and you aren't. Support is important but nothing but support is also not the greatest. I too have suffered from that strange malady. I was told by my orthopedist that when I felt like I was better with shoes, I should try a bit without shoes, as it will help strengthen muscles when the support is removed. I do not normally walk barefoot for any great lengths of time or distance, but when I do, I haven't had any additional issues in about four years. One added bit of terror though. . . you never stop waiting for the hammer to fall again. I had three serious bouts in about a four year period and did stretching exercises through PT, cortisone shots in my feet (not a good time), ice, etc. Since the last bout, I've been clean, but I'm always holding my breath.
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- carlos correa
- joe ryan
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Yes. Kepler is addition by subtraction. Santana will be missed. However, there are plenty of players that would seem to have potential for a little bit (or in a few cases, a lot) of growth left in the tank.
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- anthony misiewicz
- diego cartaya
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Count me in the group that thinks we’re not in a bad position with the team we have. There are pretty good players in most positions on the team and I’m only in favor of acquiring players that will tangibly improve the team. As much as a bunch of signings would get us all excited, those players haven’t really been out there for the price we are willing to pay. I think there is a trade or two coming, perhaps not a big one, but something will happen on the fringes that might help us more than we think it will. Willi Castro was a nothing acquisition a couple of years ago and the Carlos Santana pickup was widely criticized as well. I’m looking forward to the season starting because just like fishing, a day with it is inherently better than a day without it.
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- anthony misiewicz
- diego cartaya
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I’m not concerned about Correa or Ryan. They will be fine. Brock Stewart, on the other hand, makes me nervous. He’s really only been healthy and effective for short spurts in his career. Those healthy moments have been tantalizingly good, but it’s hard to write his name into the plans in ink, that’s for sure. I’m not so worried about his age, as that arm doesn’t actually have that much mileage on it, but he just seems fragile.
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- carlos correa
- joe ryan
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By the way, what’s a “true ace” anyway? Is that a top ten guy? Top twenty guy? Good #1 starter. Sometimes it seems like we talk about Lopez like he is an ace but other times he doesn’t seem to qualify. I personally think he’s pretty darn good, so I’m willing to go with it. Sometimes I think that a “true ace” is that guy we don’t have and we like to throw around the term to make people excited about a trade.
- 88 replies
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- dylan cease
- christian vazquez
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Scenario #1: You only do this if you are convinced that Keashall will never be needed and that Brooks Lee/Eduard Julien will lock down second base for the next several years. Mercedes is a player who may not be needed with Jenkins and Rodriguez coming. Culpepper seems no more or less likely to succeed than several other prospects and you have to give up something to get something. Scenario #2: You trade Larnach if you think ERod is ready to go. For me Morris=Culpepper, solid prospect but relatively equal and you are giving up something to get something. Paddack is a salary dump. Austin Martin is probably a spare part at this point (but maybe not), so it makes a roster spot available. Scenario #3: Vasquez is why you are making the trade, to trim salary, but you better have another catcher lined up to sign or trade for. Zebby Matthew’s seems like a he is a step above the aforementioned prospect pitchers to me. Trading BOTH Miranda and Julien leaves the team with no first baseman at all, unless there are some plans we don’t know about. For me, scenario #2 makes the most sense, but others may disagree. I do think that supplying FOUR players who are at/near major league level is a lot to pay for a one year rental, no matter how good you think he might be (and he’s not Skobel or Skenes good). I probably don’t pull the trigger and make the trade, but that’s why I’m just the band guy and not the GM.
- 88 replies
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- dylan cease
- christian vazquez
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Interesting stuff. My question is whether these new statistics have real power of predictability. I don’t know that they don’t but I don’t understand them well enough to think one way or the other. Also, I would love to see how Lopez, Ryan, and Ober stack up, along with maybe some of the pitching leaders from 2023 and 2024.
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Oof. And AMEN. Let’s not make trades for the sake of churn. You’re going to lose some trades. It’s a fact of life. But this list is frightening!
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Love to have Cease on the team. Zero chance I trade Ryan/Ober/Festa/Matthews for one year of a pitcher that they could all become. If it can be Paddack, Vasquez and a lower level prospect, I’m in.
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Hey! Maybe Tommy Herr is still available! Too soon? My opinion is probably in the minority, but given the number of options we have out there — any of whom could potentially do the job well (but certainly not all of them) — it seems likely that ONE of them will step out from the pack and do a good job with the bat and/or glove. I definitely don’t call it a logjam, but we do have potentially capable bodies to put out there. We honestly don’t have the same kinds of options at catcher, which in case of injury, worries me much more.
- 72 replies
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- brooks lee
- edouard julien
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I think this is a trade situation that doesn’t make any sense until at least the trade deadline this summer. IF at that point Emma is needing a permanent position, THEN you look at making a trade, probably for a relief pitcher, at that time. That also gives you time to figure out if Wallner or Larnach is the guy to trade, based on production and return. Time to hold the cards on this one.
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If Vasquez were being paid $4M instead of $10M, we would all talk about how nice it is to have a solid defensive catcher as our backup. Instead, at $10M, we are all convinced that the salary has to go, but since he's only worth half of his salary, he becomes nearly impossible to trade (without picking up $$). I don't think there is a taker out there for a price that would make us happy, so I say why not try to push Jeffers toward 100-110 games this season with Vasquez being the true backup that his bat justifies. We were roughly middle of the pack for catcher play last season, and that number is somewhat likely to improve with Jeffers getting more of the at bats. I don't think we know what we have in Cartaya except to say that he needs some AAA time to figure out his bat. I also don't think that the team thinks Camargo is the answer, and I'm pretty sure that Gaspar isn't more than an emergency catcher (ala Farmer). Therefore I don't think that any of these guys are the answer for 2025. 2026? Maybe. We'll see.
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- christian vazquez
- ryan jeffers
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I’m in agreement that these guys need to be AAA depth. As to replacing Vasquez with a minor league player not subtracting much, I think there are three guys there who would say “Hold my beer!”
