Rod Carews Birthday
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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday
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I think we are falling into the trap of assigning very specific outcomes to prospect ratings. A difference of 20 spots or so is very subjective and isn’t especially significant. Let’s watch him develop. I’ll be much more excited about his production when he’s a MN Twin. -
Agreed. I'm also not sure that the overall optimism is that much lower than it has been historically. Sure, it was quite high after the playoff win a couple of years back, but there are lots of years in the past that looked much more bleak on the field than they do now. What we're witnessing now is probably more about the fans' impatience because they perceive an opportunity to win that doesn't necessarily line up with ownership's position at the moment. Hardcore (loud) Twins fans want more for their team and get frustrated when they think there is a missed opportunity. That's not wrong, but I don't really think it's about optimism or the lack thereof. I think it's more about people being passionate about their team winning it all.
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They will undoubtedly be pretty bad but they are still good enough to beat you once in a while. Last year, the ineptitude of the White Sox boosted the records of the other teams in the division enough to get three teams in the playoffs and a fourth close behind. Let's hope that pattern continues. Gotta fatten up on the poor teams so you don't have to beat the excellent ones as often.
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- luis robert
- justin ishbia
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Maybe. However, Liriano had his best season as a Twin (outside of his rookie year, when he really was great), but going into the season didn't really have a track record indicating that he would be that good. After that season, he was not good for at all until he made it to Pittsburgh. If I had to draft one to be my SP1, it would definitely be Lopez over Liriano (unless we're using the rookie season). I would probably also argue that Ryan was also better than Pavano. I will give you Slowey over Paddack, but SWR last season was much better than the 2010 version of Blackburn. So, yes. Deep. But I would argue pretty strong too.
- 35 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Shockingly, Wallner has above average foot speed. On the other hand, Max Kepler, who no one accuses of being slow, actually is slow.
- 20 replies
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- matt wallner
- joe mauer
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I think they are going to be good, just not good enough yet. Last year, I think the Royals benefited from everything coming together at the right time. This year with a little less luck, I think they are a candidate from some regression -- not down to 70 wins, but probably down to only 80 or so. They are developing a good core and in a couple of years, look out!
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Another Lewis injury is a pretty ominous sign for his season. We’ve unfortunately been down this path before and the results have been pretty terrible. That being said, if we can shift Miranda to third in his absence, with Gasper and Julien able to fill in at first and second, we should be OK, and that’s without committing Castro to a long term spot. Sometimes I think we forget that while Lewis has had some short stretches that were nothing short of spectacular, the team has been without him (or without him hitting well) for most of the past few years. The cries of “OMG what will we do without Lewis!” are probably unwarranted. His spectacular moments will certainly be missed severely, but his impact has been blunted with equal severity by his limited availability. This is not the end of the world. It’s why people like Willi Castro are so valuable.
- 75 replies
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- royce lewis
- edouard julien
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Great overview of the Twins starting pitching situation. Indeed, the top three are really solid and I hope that one of them can truly take another step forward and really become that stopper that every team needs to guard against losing streaks. Remember, if the other team doesn’t score — you can’t lose. The younger talent - SWR, Festa, Matthew’s, etc. really looks the part of MLB starters, which is a big change from many past years when we were promoting guys on the basis of “has been a minor league starting pitcher” in order to fill one of three (or even four!) holes in the rotation to start the year. Honestly, it’s hard to be anything but optimistic about this staff. I’ve mentioned it before and I’ll say it again, there are VERY few years in Twins history with a starting staff that looked this good. Let’s hope they deliver!
- 35 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Is Debbie Harry a Twins fan? I like Blondie even more now!
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All other things being equal, having a taller player at first base would be preferable. However, all other things are NEVER equal. There are certainly successful diminutive first basemen in the league. If you have a guy who's 5'8" that can hit the cover off the ball and play passable defense, he's going to be our first baseman and no one will care about his height. If he can't hit, his height will be more of a problem. . .
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This makes perfect sense, but honestly my first takeaway is “Holy Crap! The White Sox were BELOW replacement level last year WITH Garret Crochet!”
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Sorry but he is guilty by association. You didn’t list Mike Ford or Mickey Gasper.
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The Twins have had some successes — and also some failures, ESPECIALLY on the pitching side. Certainly MAT and Santana are great examples of excellent moves, but the failures prove that low level signings are low level ($$) for a reason. They are a crapshoot in terms of success for any team — and that includes the Twins. Also, I’m plenty intrigued by what Ty France has done so far in spring training, but anointing him a success at this point is pretty premature. Tap the brakes a little and re-visit this in about 3 months.
- 41 replies
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- michael a taylor
- ty france
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Real H.S. student excuse for being late to a pit orchestra rehearsal. . . . “Sorry I’m late. My flight from Paris was late and I had to run a case of napkins to Taco Bell on my way here.”
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Perhaps just the friendly nod.
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If you have a player like Nelson Cruz, it’s pretty easy to declare a full-time DH. It’s also easy to look at the players available and decry that we have no one who is good enough. However, rotating guys through with a couple of players (Julien, Miranda) serving as the primaries seems like a reasonable solution and will likely produce pretty good offensive numbers. Cruz numbers? No. League average or better numbers? I’m willing to roll the dice on that one.
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Let’s not get our heads stuck in the analysis. Yes, these stats are against a major and minor league smorgasbord of pitching. Yes, it’s early. BUT, all of the hitters who aren’t hitting well are dining at that same smorgasbord. Is he going to be this good? Certainly not. Could he be pretty good? He’s done it before and he’s not old and no longer injured. He just might. At very least, he’s on a hot streak. Let’s ride that out and see where it takes us. Hey, I’m willing to let him drop to at least a 1.200 OPS before I start calling for his benching!
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At some point, one of Lee/Julien (or perhaps both) are going to need to be part time bench players. We act as though their skills will fall apart with a bench role in MLB but they will develop into all-stars if they go back to St. Paul where they can play full time. Twins’ bench players play a lot. Whether you like that is a matter of personal preference, but it’s true — nobody (except the long reliever) sits for weeks at a time. So, they can both co-exist and based on MAJOR LEAGUE performance, a decision can be made about who will get the second base job. Remember, neither of them hit MLB pitching last year, but Julien does have the track record of hitting MLB pitching in 2023. Let’s find out what they can do in 2025 and reward the winner.
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The Baseball Tragedy of Matt Canterino
Rod Carews Birthday replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Yes, it is indeed a lousy situation for Canterino and we all hope that he can get healthy and have a major league career. Unfortunately the baseball gods don’t seem to want to let that happen. At this point he has rehabbed to the point where he might know the exercises to do without anyone telling him. However, to call it a tragedy is probably a little over the top. He was a highly drafted player that got a $1.1M signing bonus and even if he never pitches again, he has a really nice start financially for the rest of his life. That’s not a bad situation for someone in his mid-20’s. There are many (perhaps most) players drafted lower who would gladly take his outcome, as they may never make it to the majors (or even AAA) either. -
I don’t know if Cy Young is in his immediate future, but Joe Ryan certainly has been on an upward performance trend. When he went down to injury last season, he was certainly a top 10 pitcher in the league, but didn’t get much recognition because he was still seen as a bit of a newcomer. Hopefully that’s changing. Ultimately, if he can have a really good season, I don’t really care if he brings home the hardware. Joe Ryan (or Pablo or Ober) winning a Cy Young isn’t that far fetched at all. (Tell me who had Garret Crochet on their card last year in March?}. Here’s my question for all of the Twins’ pitching critics out there. . . If one of their pitchers wins a Cy Young award, do we get to call them an “Ace” or are they still just 2nd/3rd starters? 😄
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I think we all have a bias that says “big home run hitters aren’t fast”, which is kind of an old fashioned notion. Interestingly, no one talks about Kepler’s slow 34th percentile speed, but Wallner at the 55th percentile is slow. I think he will be just fine out there defensively, with a throwing arm that can make a difference. I also think that he is a slam dunk to out produce his predecessor offensively. The depth behind him isn’t exciting, but it’s certainly enough to put the position into reasonable hands.
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Is Gasper beckoning us back to the days of Little Nicky Punto "battling his tail off" ala Gardy? I'm always a little concerned when a player comes along that somehow becomes the fanbase's darling even though they are a mediocre player at best, like Astudillo. If he's useful for now, sure. . . keep him, but don't get too attached to him. I'm pretty confident that more of the team's future lies in Lee, Martin & Julien so I would rather see what we really have there than give at bats to a journeyman player. There is a pretty good chance that one or more of Lee, Martin & Julien will only become a journeyman player as well, but we need to find that out for certain.
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- mickey gasper
- edouard julien
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Who are we trading and for whom are we trading? That's the key to the equation. In a vacuum, it makes no sense to trade for the sake of a trade. However, if trading a young pitcher will net the catcher of the future, I'm all in. There are deals out there to be had I'm sure, but there is no use speculating on the unknown. It's always about the return. At this point I would like to think we are past ditching salary by trading Paddack and Velasquez, so there has to be an actual return that makes the team better, preferably this year. As for trading the big three, I think ONE of them is traded next offseason in order to avoid having all three contracts up at the same time. Trading one of them before then is only feasible if someone is willing to back up the Brinks truck and give you a big haul.
- 27 replies
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- david festa
- zebby matthews
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These posts have gotten ridiculous for sure. The "value" of having a Randy Dobnak (and also Yunior Severino) is that they are players that could be called upon in an emergency situation (break glass in case of emergency) to come up and fill in. They're not good enough for regular MLB duty -- just like a LOT of players in the minor leagues -- but they can fill in. The team doesn't have any of their future invested in them and anything they provide (IF they provide anything) is just gravy. Because the Twins don't have their future invested in them, they can come up, be offered on waivers, sent down, et al without concern about whether they will be claimed. AND, that's what the Twins are using Dobnak to do. That is the only thing they have been able to get out of the contract extension for the big league club. I'm sure they would prefer that he had developed into a viable MLB starting pitcher, but it hasn't worked out that way. As it is, he is getting paid handsomely for providing innings to the St. Paul Saints. No one here is suggesting that he is a bad person, in fact I've heard he's a likeable guy who works really hard -- just like a lot of players in his situation. Dobnak flashed something interesting, and then got hurt and hasn't been able to develop that "interesting" thing into something permanent. It sucks but it happens all the time on every team in the league.
- 75 replies
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- emmanuel rodriguez
- cory lewis
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If Buxton, who seems healthier than usual, falters; then we have Bader, who at worst is a defensive specialist. That in an of itself is better than any arrangement we’ve had in recent memory. Remember, when we had MAT, he was supposed to be a backup, not a fulltime starter, even though it is likely the front office knew that Buxton’s health was more in doubt than they let on. The other guys on the table (Castro, Martin, Keirsey) are down at #3 on the depth chart without factoring in the projections of the prospects (Rodriguez, Walker). If injuries or ineffectiveness wipe out our first two options, we still have a lot in the dugout to replace them. That is probably not true for most of the other positions on the team.
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- byron buxton
- harrison bader
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