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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    Reading this article through it seems to prove the point to me that Sands is well-served in the bullpen and the bullpen is well-served with him in it. His stuff plays there pretty well (so far) and he is having his first real major league success there. An additional reason to keep him in the bullpen with four years of team control left is that he is going to still be here after Jax and Duran have reached free-agency (we could re-sign them, but don't bet on it). By creating a situation where not everyone good is leaving at once, you make your bullpen and team more sustainable than if you are trying to re-establish a bullpen every year - year after year.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    That’s a nice list of players who are young, controllable, and somewhat projectable for the Twins. I think that the highest WAR will be produced by whichever of the three pitchers — SWR, Matthews, or Festa — gets the most starts for the Twins in 2025. I think all three of them have solid futures, but opportunities to perform may vary based on perceptions, injuries, and effectiveness. Of the position players, I think that Keirsey will have the best chance for impact. Unfortunately, a chunk of this will be filling in for Byron Buxton, in the event of injury. I think that Brooks Lee may have potential, but he really needs to recover from last year’s poor offensive season (I know he was injured for part of it, but he was pretty bad). I think he starts back at AAA and others are given the chance to play at 2nd base — perhaps this means that the Twins think he has more potential to develop, as opposed to Austin Martin, who may break camp as a utility guy because that is what he appears to be. With all of them, there is hope that they take a big step forward, and likely some will, but there is also the fear of second year regression, which we have experienced plenty of times in the past.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    Oh how interesting it would be to be inside Derek Falvey's head at this point. I would assume he has a list of 10 or more players that he thinks might be realistic that he would really like to have. Equally interesting, and probably more enlightening for Twins fans, would be the list of guys that he is really willing to part with. (Yes, I agree, no one is untouchable for the right price, but. . . ). It's also hard to know whether there has been ground work laid by front offices just waiting to pull the trigger or whether all is quiet out there. At the end of the day, it doesn't take long for two GM's to potentially pull the trigger on a trade, so I'm really not writing anything off until the umpire says "Play Ball" on opening day.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is a pretty weird hypothetical. That’s not how baseball works, and even historically there have been trades. If people want to be entertained by it, OK, but its lack of relevancy makes it pretty uninteresting for me.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m in the skeptical group as to whether Austin Martin can develop into a good backup CFer. However, I think that giving him as many reps there as possible in spring training games is an excellent idea. There is a little window right now, before Rodriguez, et al. are ready to go, and seeing what we have in Austin Martin is a good way to fill it — especially in spring training games. If he responds well to it, we have a fantastic problem and a piece of trade material. If he doesn’t, we can effectively move on from him.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    You are and you aren't. Support is important but nothing but support is also not the greatest. I too have suffered from that strange malady. I was told by my orthopedist that when I felt like I was better with shoes, I should try a bit without shoes, as it will help strengthen muscles when the support is removed. I do not normally walk barefoot for any great lengths of time or distance, but when I do, I haven't had any additional issues in about four years. One added bit of terror though. . . you never stop waiting for the hammer to fall again. I had three serious bouts in about a four year period and did stretching exercises through PT, cortisone shots in my feet (not a good time), ice, etc. Since the last bout, I've been clean, but I'm always holding my breath.
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    Yes. Kepler is addition by subtraction. Santana will be missed. However, there are plenty of players that would seem to have potential for a little bit (or in a few cases, a lot) of growth left in the tank.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    Count me in the group that thinks we’re not in a bad position with the team we have. There are pretty good players in most positions on the team and I’m only in favor of acquiring players that will tangibly improve the team. As much as a bunch of signings would get us all excited, those players haven’t really been out there for the price we are willing to pay. I think there is a trade or two coming, perhaps not a big one, but something will happen on the fringes that might help us more than we think it will. Willi Castro was a nothing acquisition a couple of years ago and the Carlos Santana pickup was widely criticized as well. I’m looking forward to the season starting because just like fishing, a day with it is inherently better than a day without it.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m not concerned about Correa or Ryan. They will be fine. Brock Stewart, on the other hand, makes me nervous. He’s really only been healthy and effective for short spurts in his career. Those healthy moments have been tantalizingly good, but it’s hard to write his name into the plans in ink, that’s for sure. I’m not so worried about his age, as that arm doesn’t actually have that much mileage on it, but he just seems fragile.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    By the way, what’s a “true ace” anyway? Is that a top ten guy? Top twenty guy? Good #1 starter. Sometimes it seems like we talk about Lopez like he is an ace but other times he doesn’t seem to qualify. I personally think he’s pretty darn good, so I’m willing to go with it. Sometimes I think that a “true ace” is that guy we don’t have and we like to throw around the term to make people excited about a trade.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Scenario #1: You only do this if you are convinced that Keashall will never be needed and that Brooks Lee/Eduard Julien will lock down second base for the next several years. Mercedes is a player who may not be needed with Jenkins and Rodriguez coming. Culpepper seems no more or less likely to succeed than several other prospects and you have to give up something to get something. Scenario #2: You trade Larnach if you think ERod is ready to go. For me Morris=Culpepper, solid prospect but relatively equal and you are giving up something to get something. Paddack is a salary dump. Austin Martin is probably a spare part at this point (but maybe not), so it makes a roster spot available. Scenario #3: Vasquez is why you are making the trade, to trim salary, but you better have another catcher lined up to sign or trade for. Zebby Matthew’s seems like a he is a step above the aforementioned prospect pitchers to me. Trading BOTH Miranda and Julien leaves the team with no first baseman at all, unless there are some plans we don’t know about. For me, scenario #2 makes the most sense, but others may disagree. I do think that supplying FOUR players who are at/near major league level is a lot to pay for a one year rental, no matter how good you think he might be (and he’s not Skobel or Skenes good). I probably don’t pull the trigger and make the trade, but that’s why I’m just the band guy and not the GM.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    Interesting stuff. My question is whether these new statistics have real power of predictability. I don’t know that they don’t but I don’t understand them well enough to think one way or the other. Also, I would love to see how Lopez, Ryan, and Ober stack up, along with maybe some of the pitching leaders from 2023 and 2024.
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Oof. And AMEN. Let’s not make trades for the sake of churn. You’re going to lose some trades. It’s a fact of life. But this list is frightening!
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    Love to have Cease on the team. Zero chance I trade Ryan/Ober/Festa/Matthews for one year of a pitcher that they could all become. If it can be Paddack, Vasquez and a lower level prospect, I’m in.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    Hey! Maybe Tommy Herr is still available! Too soon? My opinion is probably in the minority, but given the number of options we have out there — any of whom could potentially do the job well (but certainly not all of them) — it seems likely that ONE of them will step out from the pack and do a good job with the bat and/or glove. I definitely don’t call it a logjam, but we do have potentially capable bodies to put out there. We honestly don’t have the same kinds of options at catcher, which in case of injury, worries me much more.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think this is a trade situation that doesn’t make any sense until at least the trade deadline this summer. IF at that point Emma is needing a permanent position, THEN you look at making a trade, probably for a relief pitcher, at that time. That also gives you time to figure out if Wallner or Larnach is the guy to trade, based on production and return. Time to hold the cards on this one.
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    If Vasquez were being paid $4M instead of $10M, we would all talk about how nice it is to have a solid defensive catcher as our backup. Instead, at $10M, we are all convinced that the salary has to go, but since he's only worth half of his salary, he becomes nearly impossible to trade (without picking up $$). I don't think there is a taker out there for a price that would make us happy, so I say why not try to push Jeffers toward 100-110 games this season with Vasquez being the true backup that his bat justifies. We were roughly middle of the pack for catcher play last season, and that number is somewhat likely to improve with Jeffers getting more of the at bats. I don't think we know what we have in Cartaya except to say that he needs some AAA time to figure out his bat. I also don't think that the team thinks Camargo is the answer, and I'm pretty sure that Gaspar isn't more than an emergency catcher (ala Farmer). Therefore I don't think that any of these guys are the answer for 2025. 2026? Maybe. We'll see.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m in agreement that these guys need to be AAA depth. As to replacing Vasquez with a minor league player not subtracting much, I think there are three guys there who would say “Hold my beer!”
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    That’s a good question but it has been reported in the media that he is an extremely hard worker in training and (again from what has been reported) a vocal guy in the clubhouse. The example of this kind of attitude surely influences other players positively, and he has the credentials and career to back up what he says. I’m not there to know any of this for certain, but those are the things that are out there. My own observations about his body language and to his willingness to be out front for commentary about good and bad times is to me what leadership is all about. He also appears to have a really great baseball mind that has seen a lot of plays and learned from them. It’s hard to play shortstop with plantar fasciitis and not be terrible unless you have some pretty good instincts and experiences to draw from. That said, his “gutting it out” through plantar fasciitis in 2023 probably taught him a lesson about his own mortality and led to him being a little smarter in 2024 when it struck on the other foot. The games played weren’t much different but the quality of play certainly was. Let’s hope for better health this summer. As far as too much pressure, that’s hard to say. Some guys “want the ball” (sorry, basketball analogy — like Jordan or Kobe) every time no matter what the situation. I think Correa is one of those guys. Players like that seem to be able to completely tune out the pressure and perform anyway. I would argue that Correa’s ability to be “the guy” is why he was signed in the first place.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think he’s probably hyper-focused on training and preparing for baseball in 2025. He strikes me as the kind of player who is saying to himself “If I work hard enough, I will carry this team on my back to the playoffs”. Not in a bad way, but from a leadership perspective. One of the (supposed) strikes against Joe Mauer was that he was a great player but not a vocal leader. I don’t know if that was entirely true, but Correa seems like the vocal leader that Mauer never was (at least publicly). I also think that he is smart enough to be a realist. Only one team’s players get to celebrate a championship at the end of the year, and some of those players are the last guy on the roster, not just the stars. At 30 teams, that means that less than four percent of the players actually get to do that celebrating. It’s tough odds, but that’s what professional ball players spend their entire careers striving to be a part of. I think he’s also enough of a realist to know that players come and go and rosters change. I think he’s in it for the long haul and not so concerned with what the Pohlads do.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    The nature of a baseball roster is that it is full of question marks. If it weren’t that way, we wouldn’t need to play the season. We could just line up the stats and see how it winds up. You are obviously averse to potential injuries, listing Buxton, Correa, and Lewis among your question marks. OK, but Duran, Stewart, and Ryan were also injured last year, so are they question marks also? Ober is just a couple of years removed from being unreliable due to a pattern of injuries. Lopez is probably due for one since he has been so healthy. You have Wallner as a question mark. I think he’s demonstrated an ability to hit well, even with his poor start to last year. In fact, the players who you suggest we pick up are along ways from sure bets as none of them have long consistent track records of performance. I’m going to call them question marks also. My point isn’t to poke holes in every one of your choices, but rather to point out that there are no sure things. Aaron Judge was hurt a couple years ago and produced almost nothing — that could happen again. That would take a pretty big bite out of the vaunted Yankees offense in 2025. Gerrit Cole has been hurt. Others as well. Teams have to assemble a roster that they feel strongly about and put it out there. It is only then that we see what happens. There are certainly places I would like to see filled with long time proven productive major league stars, but I think that the positions are filled pretty reasonably, and I would argue that the rotation and bullpen project as well as any I’ve seen on a Twins team. Let’s get the season started, the team sold, and see what this Twins team can do.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Unfortunately in a set of articles like this there is no room for nuance, which is sorely needed. Also unfortunate that everyone can find something in it that reinforces something of their predetermined narrative. Carl Pohlad was a rich businessman. I'm not sure that any billionaire qualifies as a good person all of the time. In pretty much every case I've seen, someone took advantage of someone else to amass that kind of fortune. I'm sure that Carl Pohlad did too, as did probably every single sports franchise owner in the country. In fact, probably every single person with the money to buy a sports franchise has done that. I'm also aware that Carl Pohlad did step up to buy the Twins when they appeared to be on a one way bus ride to Nashville or Charlotte back in the 1980's. In retrospect, he got an AMAZING deal, but that same deal was available to anyone else that wanted to outbid him as I'm sure that Calvin Griffith (now THERE was an owner -- Yikes!) was holding out for every last nickel he could bleed from the franchise. I'm not a big Pohlad family fan, but I also don't think it's necessary to beat up a man who has been dead for more than a decade. I personally CAN'T WAIT for a sale!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I'm not sure that I can agree that there is no path to a passing grade, or even what that means in the first place. If the Twins can make a trade or signing that makes them better, that's great. But if it is trading and signing for the sake of trading and signing to make it look like there is activity, then that's a waste of time, energy, and money. AND that doesn't equal a good grade. They certainly have question marks, but they don't have holes (way worse than a question mark), so it may make sense to stand pat. If there are no good options within the budget (that Falvey can't control), then standing pat is probably the best option. I don't love it, but it's better than just making bad decisions for the sake of creating churn.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    That's a great bunch of names on the MLB list, but I'm not super surprised that Jax (or Duran) didn't crack it. Sometimes it takes a longer track record to get noticed on things like that, or to have a truly jaw dropping season to really put you on the map. Jax was terrific last season, but I would guess Duran (who objectively had a less good season) was probably higher in MLB's "also receiving votes" category. That said, I'm thrilled to have him back in the bullpen. IMHO we have a stronger rotation than bullpen at this point so I think he will provide the most value to the team as a reliever, whether he's the closer or a setup guy makes no difference.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    No. I don’t either, at least not especially so. However, some individuals are certainly better than others/most. There are guys who almost never swing at a bad pitch and guys who swing at almost everything and still manage to be good like Vlad. The team chase rate stats are really kind of fascinating. The presence of the Dodgers and Yankees at the top makes me think there is a real correlation between (low) chase rate and success. My closer examination just confuses me though. (The Twins are around the middle of the pack, slightly below the league average.) It looks like good chase rate is certainly desirable, but there are teams scattered throughout the list that have both good and poor records. Not sure I can process this appropriately.
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