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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    These guys aren’t useless players, but aside from whether they are better than the players you have (Mateo probably isn’t and Soto probably is), they don’t save any money AND they cost prospect/player capital to acquire in a trade. I’m just not seeing the upside for the Twins as currently constructed.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    To me, non-tendering a player depends on two things, money and roster space. None of these guys cost much at all so even replacing them with minor leaguers doesn’t amount to anything. We are sitting at 37 on the roster going into the Rule 5, so creating space there doesn’t seem like a motivator either. Headrick is a lefty and breathing and might get healthy enough to improve, Topa might be that guy from 2023, Tonkin has some history of an innings eater in the bullpen, and Henriquez has shown a little and would seem to have room to get a little better out of the bullpen. I say tender them all until you need a roster spot. Then one of them can disappear.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    To me, Raya is the most puzzling pitching prospect the Twins have. I'm not necessarily second guessing what the Twins have done -- they have more information on him than anyone else does -- but if Raya is to have a future as a major league pitcher, he's going to need to ramp up at some point. Can he get to a higher pitch/innings limit this year? That could answer a lot of questions. I think at the moment I would have him below Morris but that could change rapidly as he moves along. Puzzling. . . interesting! Let's hope this materializes in a positive way!
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    I don’t think they are redundant at all. They have a similar, but not identical, hitting profile and both are right-handed corner outfielders who actually hit well last year, but last time I checked, two corner outfielders were needed. Now, maybe at some point one of them gets displaced by a prospect coming up (ahem. . . ERod), but until then let’s get all the mileage out of them that we can. Then we perhaps have someone good to trade. So much is made on this board of individual players’ defense, or the perception of it. Neither of these guys are prime Byron Buxton or even excellent Max Kepler, but that doesn’t mean that if they hit, their defense isn’t acceptable. Sometimes we err by comparing players only to the best there is at a position, when just OK is just enough when paired with a good hitting profile.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    More importantly than my earlier comment. . . The Twins have MUCH more information about these guys than we do, so I’m going to defer to their take on things. You are right, he’s a big strong guy with a very lively arm, and that alone makes him interesting. I can think of a certain closer whose strong peripherals never really translated in the minors either. Some guys just take a little more time to develop than others, and it’s not really a straight line procedure. Adams sounds to me like a guy who could be a little boom or bust with a range from #4 innings eater starter to absolute killer relief arm.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    Maybe it’s because they want to play Major League Baseball someday. Are you suggesting that these guys are just tanking their careers because they don’t like the Twins? That seems pretty unlikely. Good grief. . .
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    What is different about Jax now from when he was a starter? Remember, you have to dial his velocity back down (probably), you need to rely on more different pitches (likely) and you have to build his innings back up (definitely). Granted, he's had great success in the bullpen, but I'm not sure that he is any more of a potential upper rotation starter today than David Festa or Andrew Morris. Jax moved to the bullpen because he wasn't very effective in the rotation. That happened to a few other guys whose names we know also -- Glen Perkins, Joe Nathan, and plenty more. Great starters make more money than great relievers, but bad starters wash out of the league without making any money at all. I know the argument is that he can always go back to the bullpen. . . that is true, but does that experiment make the Twins a better team in 2025 and beyond?
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    The raw materials for an elite bullpen are certainly there, it just depends now on how the players actually play/stay healthy. At their best, these guys are certainly at or near the top. However, it is almost always a foregone conclusion that someone will implode, someone will be injured, etc. That being said, most elite bullpens contain those things as well. Having a few backup options in AAA is essential. Since the three batter rule change and actual left-hander is probably not essential to the cause, as I agree that just having good pitchers takes care of that. However, I'm enough a traditionalist to think that occasionally being able to throw a lefty out there helps to mix it up a little for the batters. Not always, but sometimes. Acquiring one (unless Funderburk/Headrick step up) would be a good idea.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    The only reason he makes any sense to me is that he's left handed, which would provide a little bit of diversity in our rotation. However, he has had one and a half good years and has been hurt. . . a lot. Other than the handedness issue, I don't see that he necessarily slots in above Ryan and Ober. For Larnach alone, I would consider it, but I'm not jumping up and down for it. If we were to go the direction of the Lewis trade, Joe Mack (the catcher) would be an amazing get although he died in 1998 and would be 112 years old according to the embedded link. Father time. . . still undefeated.
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Morris definitely looks like a guy to get excited about. I love the fact that he appears to have two “ready” off-speed pitches to augment a solid fastball and curve. I’m less worried about the changeup, because isn’t that the thing that the Twins are supposed to be good at teaching? The question for me is what is the best answer for his development. Do you let him pitch as long as possible in AAA in hopes of really solidifying his status, or do you get him to the majors fairly quickly so as not to “waste the bullets”? I understand it’s impossible to know because there are examples of pitchers flourishing in both situations and also examples of pitchers failing. I also know that it depends on his results at that level, but the question of when is key here.
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    So you’re saying that it would be a good idea to have pitchers pitch more innings if they are less good or less healthy. If anything these two years prove that given appropriate talent, Rocco Baldelli will let them pitch longer, and I think that’s what we actually want.
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    I just don’t see the upside in a trade of Jeffers when you don’t have a catcher in waiting. To me, any catcher trade has to be trade #2, after the trade acquiring a catcher (or at least concurrently), unless you consider Camacho a starting caliber backstop, which I do not (and I don’t think the Twins do either).
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Great article! I'm excited to go watch the documentary. Are there any other documentaries out there about the Twins or their players over the years? I have watched the Harmon Killebrew on David Letterman episode a couple of times. It's awesome as well.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    Joe Ryan, prior to injury, was the Twins' best pitcher last year by a number of metrics. His injuries thus far haven't been "scary" injuries that threaten his career, unlike many pitchers out there. He's still cheap, and will remain relatively so for at least another year. Based on these three factors, I'm not at all inclined to trade him. On the flip side, I would argue that he may actually have the most trade value (factoring in contracts) of anyone on the team and if someone blows me away, I'm all in. It's all about the return. If the return is there, you pull the trigger. If it isn't, you NEVER trade someone for the sake of trading them, especially when there is no salary relief from doing so.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    It’s always nice to see Lew Ford make an appearance!
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    ARGH!!! Don’t click the link!
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    This simply shows how difficult it is to evaluate young players. The sad truth is that most guys never make it in the majors, either because they don’t get there at all or because they are highly unsuccessful in a limited stint. At the end of the day, you have to do the job and that job is extremely challenging. Every single team has these “almost” guys who fail and Severino and Winder are just our latest examples.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    If Jax goes back to starting, his velocity will drop because you can’t give 100% effort for six innings at a time which will change his effectiveness. His career high innings pitched totals will be obliterated, which certainly raises the possibility of injury. He was the best part of a bullpen last year that was a little shaky. The Twins have pretty solid depth in the starting pitching lineup. Why would you move him? In hopes of finding a unicorn (there are examples, but certainly more failures) that can do this? Because you think he will move from shutdown reliever to #3 level starter or above when his previous stint was something just north of terrible? Because he wants to do it without regard for team considerations? (Please note: I would also like a pony.) Because starters make more money than relievers? Yes, but injured starters who never make it are out of the league and make nothing. I’m thinking that we don’t want to ruin something that we have. YMMV.
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    Certainly anyone can be traded for the right value, but what would that value be? If I'm sending away a solid MLB #2/3, I want back a prospect pitcher who projects that well as a starting point. Then, I want a hitter who will make a real impact on this lineup OR a starting level catcher that would make Vasquez expendable. Do I think it is likely that anyone offers those things? Nope, and that's why you keep Ober.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    I agree with the need to make some switches, but when Sands and Jax were in the rotation, the Twins were DESPERATE for any good starting pitcher. Luckily the times seem to have changed.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    Nope. Trading a star player for prospects is something you do when out of contention at the deadline, not something you do over the winter. That being said, I would need much more in return for three years of Lopez.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    Big fan of Willi Castro, but he's probably a luxury that the Twins cannot afford to have on the payroll. Not having him around makes Baldelli's job a little more difficult when the inevitable injuries happen, but much of his production can and will be replaced by the smaller efforts of other players. Losing Castro is a negative, but I think the Twins will survive just fine. The real question I have is what he is actually worth in a trade. So, assuming that the Twins pick up none of his salary, can we get a team's # 8 and #12 prospects, or is that too much to ask? I don't think anyone will give us a top 5 prospect but if we can get two other prospects, the trade looks pretty good to me. Or, if that doesn't work, does somebody have an extra major league first baseman or functional catcher lying around to trade?
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think he has more value to the back of our bullpen than he does as a trade candidate. Could he start? Perhaps, but there are more relievers who tried starting and failed than those who succeed. Again, he is too valuable to mess around with. Keep him where he is and we will likely be very happy.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    Don't you think he's being showcased in the Arizona Fall League in hopes that some team is impressed by his hitting? I do. IF there is a trade that involves prospects, I would be that he would be one of the guys moved.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    THIS. And Hunter's years of less than 100 games were 99 and 98. Hunter was basically always healthy. The comparison really ends there. He had a very long productive career and wound up with 50 WAR. That doesn't quite put him in the HOF, but he certainly is in the hall of very good. Although Buxton is halfway there, I would put my money on the under for him. Even though his rate stats are good, I just can't imagine him staying healthy for enough games to accumulate those kinds of stats. Much of Buxton's value as a player comes from his ability to play plus defense in CF. Moving him to the corners makes him less valuable by definition, AND his offensive numbers don't hold up as well in those spots. Hunter was an unusual player in that he was a better hitter from age 31 to 36 than he was from 25 to 30. That made his offensive numbers hold up well in the corner spot even though he didn't move to the corner until fairly late in his career.
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