Rod Carews Birthday

I agree with you. I’m not writing him off, but there need to be some alarm bells going off in his head and the Twins’ collective heads. He was billed for so long as the “sure thing”, but he is looking a little wobbly in his first taste of MLB action.

With the front three spots in the rotation locked in, I think Festa starts the year as the #4/5 starter with SWR, and Matthews needs some time in AAA to really get his feet back on the ground. Can you imagine the whirlwind he felt over his rise during the season? Wow! His head is probably still spinning. In 2025, he will be an awesome resource to have available at AAA in case of injury or ineffectiveness at the MLB level. In 2026, he will force his way into a permanent spot in the rotation. My one fear is that the Twins think of Festa and Matthews as fully developed and ready for full time status at the MLB level, and decide to trade one of the top three in the rotation. This would leave us “functional” to start the season but placing a lot of faith in very inexperienced arms and with no room for error in the rotation.

I was thinking the same thing. If AI is only as good as what goes into it, and ownership could control the inputs somehow. . . . . Hmmmm. . . . that could be their best answer. It would defend their position, while maintaining the illusion that they are caught up on all of the latest technology trends. BTW. . . Great article as usual. Makes my Friday immensely better all the way around.

I think that given the budget constraints, you probably roll with Miranda at first base starting next season. He plays passable defense there (no, he’s not Santana) and when healthy, can hit. That said, I think he has a short leash as there are other possible players to fill in at first — each of whom has question marks of his own. Kiriloff. . . . Julien. . . .AAA guys. I think it is likely that we see a bit of a revolving door at first base next year.

None of these guys look like they are going to be a major piece of the puzzle next year at the major league level, but some may contribute on the margins. I hope I’m wrong (or that they’re not needed at all!). Austin Martin appears to be an OK platoon bat with no power that is worth having around to pinch run and play a utility role (if you don’t care much about defense). Keirsay is certainly useful to stash at AAA for CF insurance (which will undoubtedly be needed). Hellman, on paper, could be useful due to his positional flexibility, but I don’t think he’s really a major leaguer at this point. Camargo probably isn’t a starting catcher, but there are certainly worse guys playing backup catcher in the league. This brings me to Brooks Lee. His stats were extremely underwhelming and while he has at least a little power, wasn’t strong at the plate. Overall he’s no better than Julien or Martin. Defensively, he plays a solid third and can back up shortstop (which is very useful potentially), but I don’t think he can be the super utility guy that Castro has become (nor do the Twins want him for that I believe). However, if he weren’t a highly touted prospect, we would all be writing him off right now. Somebody referenced David McCarty earlier. Sadly, that is possible. It has always seemed like Lee didn’t have a super high ceiling, but we’ve taken solace in the fact that his floor seemed to be very high. Right now that floor looks pretty low. I’m not writing Lee off yet, but it’s time to play if he’s really going to be a part of the future.

But that’s the point. The monetary part has little to do with their success. All of the variables are different, so that makes the comparison impossible. Compare talent, sure. Compare prospects, sure. Compare management, you bet. But there are too many moving parts to tie it only to the payroll cut.

Different team. Different talent. Different city. Different league. Different management. Different prospects. You're comparing apples to trains.

I think this would be an ideal scenario. I like the idea of Nelly being around the team and working with the players. I’m just not sure he is ready to be the head guy, which probably entail much more than that. As an assistant coach, he would be mostly working with players without the need to push the pencil that being the head guy entails. The question is whether Cruz thinks it’s a better gig than the one he has now and whether he would rather work with players directly. He could also be (indirectly) another assistant trainer/fitness guy. I have to admit that most of the successful hitting coaches aren’t guys I’ve ever even heard of, so I don’t think this is a hire that will make me thrilled or disgusted. This is a difficult one on which to speculate.

Awesome article! Tapani was probably my favorite player on the 1991 team. He wasn't flashy, but he was so effective. I agree that he was definitely underrated and definitely deserves a spot in the Twins' HOF for being an essential part of the WS team.

Perhaps the cans should come pre-opened and sitting on a shelf for a day to get that true stale beer taste that the Twins' recent play deserves.

It’s always fun to mock the Sox, but it would be way more fun to be able to mock the Cubs!

Come on. Everyone knows that infants are built more like catchers! He’s a natural.

There is much to agree with in this article. The rotation, except for some bad timing, has been better than expected. But between the bullpen implosions from usually reliable sources and the lack of any sustained offensive production it's pretty hard to win games. In the bullpen, there aren't really any solutions to be had other than "pitch better". As for the offense, the Twins are just out of rounds in their chamber. Santana seems out of gas at 1B, 2B is all over the place, SS is a rookie who looks a little overmatched, 3B is a good player in a major slump, and CF is . . . well. . . we don't really have one right now. But hey! We're OK in the corners and the catching tandem is pretty good! It's going to be tough to get back in control of this thing. Somebody (perhaps unexpected) needs to get really hot and carry this team. I surely don't know who that could be.

Why do you seem to be so attached to veteran players on the Twins? I like veteran players a lot, but sometimes, you've got to move on. In Kepler's case, he's not providing offense, he's not a clubhouse veteran leader, and he's making a lot of money. Wallner, in about half the plate appearances has 2.5 times as much WAR as Kepler this season. Larnach, is a young player making small $$ who has 1.5 times as much WAR as Kepler this season. Kiersey, Jr. . . who knows, but his presence is only necessitated by Kepler (or anyone else) not really playing centerfield. Based on Kepler's current contribution, removing him from the lineup isn't hurting the team.

This is exactly right. He did some promising things right away but never really developed into what he looked like he could be except for 2019 and the occasional hot month or two. I will be happy to see him move on and open up the outfield for some new talent. Best of luck to him on a new team next year, but the Twins will be fine without him.

Yes. This is true. BUT. . . they're going to need to do something right in September to be on a path to do nearly everything right in October. I would be a lot more confident if they played a solid September (maybe +4 or +5 games over .500) than if they make it in based on everyone else losing as much as or more than they do. They could certainly go on a bender in October, and I would like them to. Let's hope it can happen. I know I've said this MANY times in postings like this. The 1987 team was not a juggernaut. They were a decent team that got hot at the right time and won it all. Stranger things could happen.

“This at-bat was typical of one you might expect to see from a crafty veteran hitter. To cover the fastball and slider away, and still to avoid wasting the mistake when it comes, takes a special hitter. Even not quite at his best, that’s what Lewis is. The homer proved that.” I enjoyed the at bat. I enjoyed the excellent analysis. I’m not sure I’m in agreement that he is a “crafty veteran hitter”. That would be Carlos Santana, or should be Max Kepler, but probably not Royce Lewis yet.

Banking on health and a return to star level status for Buxton, Correa, et al, seems like wishcasting. It COULD happen, but given that they don't seem likely to be returning at full health makes high quality play unlikely. The bullpen could be helped by Varland and/or Paddack and/or someone else, but it seems to me that the biggest issue is to get the pitchers currently in the bullpen to pitch like some of them have earlier in the season. That may not be possible given the workloads some of them have endured. Varland could help ease that a little, but it will take more than one guy to improve the current situation. The area that I agree the most with is that somebody, not necessarily Kepler (unlikely) or Lewis (only marginally likely), will need to step up and get hot offensively in order to get this team scoring some runs. A little hot streak from a player or two can be contagious and lead to pretty substantial overall improvement. It could be Larnach or Wallner going on a real tear, or Castro becoming really hard to get out, or one or both of our catchers really finding their stroke over the next couple of weeks. The Twins are in a pretty tough spot at the moment. Something needs to happen or the playoff birth will be in real jeopardy.

I don't know about the Twins "signing up for it" with injured players. A lot (really a lot) of players have injury histories that never have problems again after they heal. Think of the great pitchers that have had TJ surgery, recovered, and never looked back -- it's a long list. The same goes for position player injuries. I do agree with on you on the bottom line however. Ultimately, the reasons why don't matter. The Twins just need to win games somehow, with whatever cobbled together lineup they can muster on a day to day basis. With a month left in a playoff chase, now isn't the time to lament injured players. It's not going to be easy, but it would be really cool if the Twins can still pull it off.

I think you are correct. The injury bug has bit the Twins in a nasty way, perhaps in a way more severely than some other teams. However, all teams have to deal with the same issue. Yes, the solution is to have the best roster in anticipation of injuries, but that only works if you happen to plan for the right ones, which is difficult at best. Injuries will happen and will negatively impact the team. There is probably an upper limit to what you can plan for, particularly in defensively sensitive ones like CF, SS, and the starting rotation.

It would be great if Lee could come back up and be the savior of the season, but I'm not counting on that happening, at least not directly. A really huge part of the benefit of Lee coming back is the fact that he can displace Castro at SS, freeing him up to actually be a utility guy, while likely improving the SS defense as well. I'm not expecting him to hit .350 with power, but I think he will be at least OK, and the domino effect will help the team a great deal. Now, let's hope he's actually healthy.

Just to clarify, is your explanation that Buxton and Correa (and maybe Lewis) just don't want to play and aren't trying to get out there to help the team, instead preferring to only come back when the national spotlight is on them in the playoffs? Wow. Just wow. Professional athletes are performers. They have spent their entire lives, often at the expense of other endeavors, attempting to get themselves to the highest stage (professional sports) in order to show what they can do. There is an amount of pride and competitiveness in these people that overrides pretty much everything else, including money (your suggestion not-withstanding). They absolutely perform for the money, but there is a whole lot more of their being tied up in being a successful athlete than a paycheck. It is nonsensical to suggest otherwise.

This is a good list. I'm sure all of these things have been or are being tried by the Lewis and the coaches. If only it were that easy or predictable. Slumps are crazy things and sometimes the harder players try, the worse it gets -- on the other hand that's the only way out of the slump. One day he will come to the ballpark and the slump will be over, with seemingly little explanation except the tendency of statistics to regress (or progress) to the mean for the player.

Perhaps I'm just not as outraged at the situation. Many (not all) of those moves were reasonable ones at the beginning of the season, particularly under the budget restraints. We're not signing big free agents. We're just not. I'm not woe is me, but that's a lot of things not working out -- a bit of a perfect storm in my mind. Many of the fixes you would like to make involve the team trading players/prospects. I would support that, because all prospects (especially pitchers) are suspects until they are not. However, when the trading time comes, the fans want to label anybody in the top ten as "untouchable" or "way too much to give up for player x". Suffice it to say, they can't have done everything wrong. The team still playing above projections.

So, basically you're saying, "if we had more good players who weren't injured, we'd be a lot better." OK. Let's get right on that. We can only play the game with the team we have, not the one we'd like to have. I would make the argument that the Twins have been hit pretty hard in the injury department to some pretty key players -- CF, SS, #4 Starter, #2 Starter, #5 Starter, 3B, Backup hotshot rookie SS, Top bullpen arm, etc. Is it more or less than the teams hit hardest out there? It's less than some, but more than KC and Cleveland, which are our primary concern right now.