Rod Carews Birthday

I think there are three players who are untouchable on the Twins team — Buxton, Ryan, and Jeffers. In each case, the Twins have no one available to replace them and would probably need to spend all of the trade return for them (and more) re-acquiring similar players. The idea that Ryan will be too expensive next year is nonsense. Worst case scenario, his salary doubles twice in the next two years. That still makes him a steal for a frontline starter. Ober will be the more interesting case next year. If he doesn’t turn back into old Ober, he’s going to be expensive for a guy who can’t get anybody out. Jeffers is needed because the cupboard is bare in catcher-land, so much so that some are advocating for re-signing Vasquez if he will sign cheap. I don’t think that’s a good idea, but trying to come up with TWO major league caliber catchers for 2026 for a team with playoff aspirations is not something I look forward to trying. Buxton has become the heart and soul of the team. As a player, he will still probably get hurt more often than we would like, but if we’ve learned nothing else this season, a healthy Buxton is a player to behold. He’s their best player. He really wants to be in Minnesota. And, he is very obviously the (probably only) guy on the team that has the ability to rally the troops. For everybody else on the team, it isn’t difficult to see who the replacement for them will be sooner rather than later. That should make them all available, for the right place. It’s not a fire sale. It’s allowing people to shop at your store. Think “for sale” not “on sale”. If Falvey can’t get the price that he wants (especially for guys with 2+ years of control left) then he should walk away.

I think remaining flexible is definitely important but I think that the definition of "mistake pitch" changes as you move up the ladder. A mistake pitch in beer league might be pretty easy for anyone to see, but as you ascend, they become less recognizable to guys like me because they are not disastrous pitches. However, those are probably still recognizable to actual professional hitters, or at least they should be. Your point is well taken, are we going up to the plate to "try even harder" to do what we were doing in Single A? I can't answer that, but I do know that the margin for error becomes a whole lot less as the competition gets better around you. It's true in the NFL, the NBA, and it's true in MLB as well. Some great college players can't cut the professional leagues because they have finally run up against the limits of their abilities. I think it's the same way for minor league baseball players making the transition to MLB. I'm still holding out hope that isn't the case with Lewis (or Julien for that matter), but it's getting harder to do that all the time.

If only that player's performance were the same now. 2023 Eddie Julien was pretty useful. So was Lewis back then. Now. . . not so much in either case.

Sadly, it is possible that this is really the case. There have been others like this. . . Joe Charboneau, Kevin Maas, Bobby Crosby. I hope he gets healthy and figures it out, but at the moment he either belongs in St. Paul or on the IL. If he can't figure it out, he will be another of those "what if" players. Someone brought up Eddie Julien. They were both good in 2023, with Lewis being a bit better, albeit in half as many plate appearances. However, Lewis for the past 12 months has been worse than Julien was when he was declared "unplayable", but yet he has gotten way more run than Eddie ever did. Lewis desperately needs to go figure it out where there is decidedly less pressure and attention. Maybe then he can realize all of that potential that he flashed a couple of years ago.

Strangely, the number of hitters having pretty lousy seasons but yet having the team near .500 is a situation that I find frustrating but kind of encouraging at the same time. If someone with a good season can regress to the mean in the remaining season, then surely someone with a terrible season can also regress (progress?) to the mean in the remaining season. Lewis has been horrible. C4 has been pretty bad. Wallner is mostly just disappointing, with a barely over average production from the RF/DH spot. I'm not sure how optimistic I am that these guys will return to form, but it does allow me to have hope. Don't forget the others on the offensive side of the ball. Larnach and Jeffers have been "OK". Either or both of them could catch fire as both have done in the past. Also, nothing would surprise me out of Castro or Bader. They seem to be the guys who pretty consistently rise to the occasion. Continued development from Lee or a surprise call up like Julien could also keep the fires burning. Let's go Twins!

That is certainly true, but isn’t really the point. If you can have a better than average player at every position, you will likely have a very good team. Production at first base, now that’s a major problem. Production when Vasquez catches, that’s an even bigger one. It would be awesome to have a top five player at catcher, or every spot on the diamond. However, that’s not really necessary to have a good team. Having a player or two in the top five is critical to that as well. For us, that’s Buxton and should be C4 or Lewis, but that’s not happening right now, and is probably one of the main reasons the offense has underachieved this year.

Jarren Duran is a nice player. He was excellent last year. This year he is profiling more toward pretty good. I don't really have a problem with him, per se, but in order to trade a good starting pitcher like Ryan, I need much more than an outfielder. Also, in theory at least, two of our top prospects in ERod and Jenkins are outfielders, so I'm not sure I see the need. Now, if they could still lay their hands on a young quality catcher, I might at least pick up the phone. . . That's an area of major need on this team -- but I still probably don't trade Ryan.

Yes. For a different team and more money than the Twins were likely willing to offer. That ship sailed long ago.

I think that the better message is "BE VERY, VERY CAREFUL" if you are going to trade Joe Ryan. As many others have pointed out, with possible apologies to Pablo Lopez and Jose Berrios, who have had a longer track record, Ryan is probably the best starter that the Twins have had since Johan Santana. Therefore, trading him should be approached with great caution. It's not that there are no trades out there that would make sense for the Twins, it's that it is extremely unlikely that those trades would ultimately replace his value -- and at best, that would be down the road, not next year. The Santana trade was a travesty in that we got three washouts and one guy who was OK but didn't get good until he left the team. The jury is still out on the Berrios trade, but the complaining about that one just proves that the expectations will (and should) be sky-high from the fans if Ryan is traded. So. . . yes. The Twins should always listen, but don't be blown away by the three prospects offered as though they were going to turn into Aaron Judge, Tarik Skubel, and Ichiro Suzuki. Prospects have a tremendously spotty record of turning into anything. The best that could likely be hoped for would be one out of three turning into something of note, and then likely not as a good as the guy we traded away. Remember, nothing says you have to trade him, so don't be afraid to turn down a potential deal.

It always seems shocking when things like this happen, but in reality, they happen all the time. His offensive output in 2023 made it look like he had a real future, but as a one-trick pony, there wasn’t much to sustain him if that trick wasn’t working. No defense, not speed, lots of strikeouts. . . your bat needs to be pretty special to make that work. If you are Big Papi or Nelson Cruz, it can happen, but when the wheels come off the bus in AAA, there isn’t really any reason for hope at a level higher.

If you are comparing him to Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer, then yes, he’s mediocre. However, the stats (even the counting ones) say that he has been an above average hitter for his career and even a shade more this season. If hitting better were easy, everyone would do it. His process seems to be working for him this year so who am I to argue. If only it weren’t for those pesky pitchers trying every trick in the book to get batters out.

I’m really not sure why so many assume that it’s all black or white with no gray area in between. I’m in the never sell a guy like Joe Ryan camp, because he is a quantity that is difficult to find and replace under the type of budget that we know the Twins will likely have going forward. However, it’s not because “the manager doesn’t know how to manage anyway”, nor because “the GM can’t be trusted to identify talent”, or because “the team doesn’t know how to get prospects to the majors”, or because “everybody does better before/after they play for the Twins”. Can you find instances of truth in each one of those? Absolutely. Does the preponderance of the evidence say any of those things taken as a whole? I think not. I don’t think any of these people are geniuses (nor are any of the gm’s/managers/staff of any other team), but I think they are decent at what they do. Are there better people out there? Probably, but are there ones that aren’t already in a job like that elsewhere? That’s a tough one. If you think that our guys are well below average, then there is room for growth by moving on. But if you think they are average or even slightly above average, then there is quite a bit of danger in getting someone new. Remember, half of the league will have average to below average people working for them. That’s how it works. At the moment, I think we are near the average — some things they do better and worse than others, but overall near the average. In the short term, I say don’t trade Joe Ryan. But certainly choose the right baseball reasons to either make or not make that move rather than some fatalistic rant. Things can absolutely get worse, but YMMV.

Certainly Joe Ryan will get a good raise this year and another one for the final year of his controllability, but he will still be quite affordable next year (certainly not replaceable for the money) and the following year he will still be making less than Pablo currently makes (unless he wins the Cy Young award). Joe’s arbitration raises are a factor, but not a major one.

Personally, Joe Ryan is the absolute last player on the Twins that I would consider training (with Buxton a close second). Trading Ryan likely says we’re going to tear it all down. We have spent years (decades?) in pursuit of high-end pitching and we have that in Joe Ryan. Trading him away puts us right back in the “we need a playoff caliber starter” category. Might we get a haul in return? Yes, perhaps, but those will be prospects, some of which will be 2 or 3 years away from the majors and some of which won’t even make it to the majors. So we would make the trade to hope we found another player as good as the one we traded away, while wasting some years waiting for that to possibly happen. Some are suggesting that we do such a trade for a return of an outfielder or a first baseman. Seriously? I’m not picking up the phone or the mail if it doesn’t include a catcher and a starting pitcher that both have high upside and are major league ready (think Joe Ryan when he was acquired). And that’s just my starting point. A few years back we traded a guy named Johan Santana (a year later in his contract situation than Ryan) for a return that didn’t amount to much. Some have advocated for the big tear down, but I would maintain that they need to be careful what they wish for. First of all a tear down means that the team is terrible, probably 100 loss terrible, for at least 1 or 2 years. Then, assuming we have found our next core group, the team starts to improve. In year’s 3 through 5, we might improve enough to be in a similar place to where we are right now. I don’t see a scenario where flushing away the next five years just to have another chance that is similar to what we currently have. Yes, I know that there are teams that have been more successful, like Houston. But they are the exception, not the rule, AND they were pretty bad when they went that route anyway. I have frequently said that any and all players are always available, but the return would need to be certain success to trade the most valuable commodity in baseball - high quality starting pitching - and Joe Ryan is definitely that.

Let’s hope it is the first of many!

It makes a ton of sense that other contending teams would be looking at Joe Ryan. They would be fools not to do that. On the other hand, the Twins would be equally foolish to trade him. That’s a burn it all down move and that’s a fan’s nightmare for two or three years with no guarantee of progress after that.

It’s the narrative that refuses to die!

Wow. Reactionary much? It was one game against the guy who is probably the best pitcher in the world right now. He’s done it all season in just about every game he has pitched. No shame in that. That’s one you turn the page from and forget about. Today’s a new game and a new opponent. Are we going to say that about every team that Skubel has faced all season and will face in the remainder of the season? Because, I’ll pretty much guarantee he’s going to keep doing this. Remember prime Johan Santana? That’s pretty much what that was like except we were on the other side. Also “a stark comparison between a very well run organization and a very poorly run organization” and “the Tigers as a team an organization outclass the Twins.” What exactly is the evaluative basis for that? I would maintain that it is impossible to draw that conclusion from one game, or even from this season. Right now the Twins are playing poorly and the Tigers are playing very well. Both have medium sized payrolls in medium sized markets with a lot of payroll tied up in just a few guys. Evaluations of the quality of organization would seem to require more objective forethought than that. YMMV.

I think it's pretty amazing what some improved health in his knees and legs will do for his production. I'm glad to see him feeling good enough to take off running when he wants to do it, rather than when he feels like he has to do it. Stealing bases is always kind of a catch 22 situation though. Because he has such a high success rate, we want him to run more often. However, this loses sight of the fact that his high success rate might be because he doesn't run all that often, picking and choosing his spots very judiciously. One thing that I have noticed with Buxton, especially this year, is that he seems to have morphed from player with insane tools who didn't always seem in control to more of a knowledgeable, smart baseball player who really sees and understands everything around him. It's also probably easier to do that when your legs don't hurt all the time.

Well said Cody. People are indeed idiots. The internet gives them the anonymity to say anything they want to and there has been a bit of a coarsening of society in general. I just wish I knew of a good solution to the problem. I agree with @DJL44 in that this is probably no worse than what Jackie Robinson endured, but that still doesn't make it OK.

I might only add that "especially in our current political climate" plays pretty hard in head nod to both sides of the equation. I think each side of the divide thinks this exact thing, but for completely different reasons. I certainly know people like that. For that reason, I think it is a throwaway line to make the writer seem relatable and a normal everyday person. I don't know Cody, nor his politics, and don't care about them. I'm also sure that it wasn't worth getting upset about. His point was that sometimes democracy (a vote) gets it wrong, and I don't think anyone would disagree with that (albeit for opposite reasons).

I applaud and support your optimism. I just don't think next year is probably that likely. I think he will be in AAA next season and get a call up or two (like Keaschall this year), but I think Culpepper taking over SS is probably a 2027 proposition. It would be fantastic if you are correct though, because it would mean he's really tearing it up in the minors. I do stay with my statement about Correa's bat at 3B though. He's got to get that figured back out somehow.

OK. I understand the desire to have the "old platinum glove" guy at SS, but we don't have that guy. Yes, they absolutely should be developing someone to take over, but again, he's not here yet. Until then -- likely at least two years -- Correa is the guy. As for moving him to the hot corner, I'm guessing he would grade out well there, with his strong arm (but not awesome ability to go to his left, hmmmm.. . . ). My concern for third baseman Correa is that his bat would grade out terribly there right now, and potentially much worse as he ages and loses the hit tool.

I think giving him a break is the very best idea. If they are even acknowledging that he has a hip issue, it's certainly a problem for him. He needs some rest on the IL and reset time. Certainly the minor league cupboard is pretty bare at the moment, so his spot would need to be covered by the bullpen and/or a spot start by someone we don't necessarily love doing that. HOWEVER, the way Ober is pitching right now, he's probably no better than those players we don't want starting a game in MLB. There are no guarantees, but he's probably more likely to resurrect the old Ober doing it this way than trying to pitch through it, which hasn't worked for the month of June.

You can't replace somebody with nobody. Castro isn't really a shortstop (and probably isn't around longer term anyway). Lee is marginally a shortstop, but is probably even slower than Correa and doesn't have his arm. Culpeper is in the minors, but quite a long ways away, so there is hardly a guarantee that he will EVER be a major league shortstop at this point. He's the best we have for now and for the next year or two. Let's revisit this down the road. Also, if there is concern about Correa's bat (which I share as well), it plays even worse at third base.