Rod Carews Birthday

I think that you are working too hard trying to pin some blame on the Twins ownership and leadership that really isn’t deserved. They traded a middling pitcher who wasn’t going to be back next year, plus a poor AAA pitcher who also wasn’t in their plans, for salary relief and a prospect lottery ticket. I think that’s actually a pretty solid return. Bonus that the prospect is a catcher who could have some upside, albeit several years way from the majors. This is a pretty normal deadline trade of a non-star (maybe even not very good) player. If you want to rage, you could say that the Twins traded a dependable (not good, but dependable to take the mound every five days) starting pitcher at a time when they are pretty short on starting pitchers and that is a sign that they are giving up on the season. That would be true, but probably of little consequence, as the season is pretty much lost anyway. They are merely getting some value out of spare parts, or if you prefer, items that have a near term expiration date.

Oof! Gives me ugly flashbacks!

This is good information, but it places an overemphasis on the closer role being the single most important thing in the bullpen. This is a bit of ann oversimplification. Every time that you take players away from the “top” side of the bullpen, it slides others upward into more crucial roles. If they are ready, as Varland was this year, then it all works out nicely. However, if you are trying to put lower leverage arms into higher leverage situations, the whole thing can potentially blow up. Might Varland be successful as a closer? He might be. Does the necessity of moving him “up” to the closer role have other deleterious effects on the bullpen as a whole? Also pretty likely. We may need to do this, but expecting it all to work out if only Varland can handle the closer role is only half of the picture.

These are fine prospects, They could be the beginning of a package, but I would want much, much more for Ryan. Three out of four are also miles away from the majors. Unless we are willing to write off the next couple of years, we need some of this bounty to be ready to contribute next year. Not in 2028.

Could they include Vasquez in the deal for some extra throw pillows?

I think that the fear is that the Twins will trade one or more of these pitchers for over-hyped prospects that will amount to nothing in the long run. The attempt to get top-100 type prospects or young MLB talent is at least an attempt to mitigate that possibility. My point of view is that trading one of Jax/Duran is a good idea right now, but only if we can get an overpay — something that isn’t that uncommon at the trade deadline. I would just like to be on the receiving end of that rather than a take what we can get situation. As to the price of two top-100 types, it’s not that outrageous. It’s steep — as one would expect it to be for a player as established and dominant as Jhoan Duran. To quote our SS, “If you want to shop at Dior. . . “ For the record, I agree that one of the starting big 3 need to be traded at some point, but I don’t think the answer is trading Joe Ryan right now. I don’t think that his value goes down precipitously if we wait until the offseason or next year at this time. In the meantime, we need to hope that one of the young guys can step up and pitch well enough to become part of the next big 3.

Would you trade 1+ year of Berrios for 2+ years of Duran? If I think I’m playoff bound and my bullpen is weak like the Dodgers, I would think that makes Duran worth two plus change. Berrios was a “solid” starter. Duran is more of a game changer for a team like the Dodgers.

Two top 100 prospects for a mid rotation starter. For one year and change. OK. One top 100 prospect for the first year and one top 100 prospect for the second year. Throw in something else for the partial year. With Duran in particular you have a solid track record of absolute top production that is worth as much as Berrios. The Cubs got Torres for 2 months of Chapman last year. If you're going to sell, for goodness sake don't sell for pennies on the dollar.

That assumes that you will receive another year of “value” for each year he has left under team control. I can’t imagine that’s true. If he were to be a free agent at the end of the season, you would trade him for one really good prospect and a filler. If he had one plus year you would get at least what has been proposed. The return suggested here doesn’t even touch the extra year of value that is there. Assuming the value decreases by each year that goes by is logical and true. However, it also assumes that you have no use for the value provided by a #1 type pitcher. I disagree with this assumption. I want to be competitive and he is the closest thing to a sure thing starter we have right now.

Why? Don’t you want him in the rotation for the next 2 years? There are two more off-seasons and two more trade deadlines to trade Ryan. It’s premature to do it now.

“Ryan has blossomed into an ace with Minnesota this season” And he has 2+ years of control. That is exactly the kind of pitcher we have been searching for since Johan. Why on earth would we trade him now? I agree with @Fire Dan Gladden. If you are going to do that, you may as well blow up the whole team and sell everybody with any value. If we are not planning to compete in 2026 OR 2027 (or after, because that’s when a bunch of our best players hit free agency), then blow it up. Otherwise, hang on to Joe Ryan. He is the single most valuable chip that you have right now — much more valuable than Duran or Jax. The return would need to be ridiculous.

Sorry. That’s not what I actually said. I said that if I were choosing between a deal with Rushing included and one without him that I thought were roughly equal, I would definitely take Rushing (or some other similar catcher from another team). I certainly agree that getting the best talent is the most important, but getting someone to fill a direct need in the organization is also very important. Going into next year, our #2 catcher is ???? Good catchers are hard to find.

I can’t speak for others on the board, but I don’t think it is Daulton Rushing or bust. I agree that the “best player available” model is a good one. However, if something can reasonably include a good catching prospect, then I think that has the potential to fill an immediate need in the system. If given two roughly equal proposals, with one having Rushing (or similar from another team), I choose the one with the catcher. If they’re not equal, then they’re not equal, and that’s another story. No team can have too many good players, so I’m not panicked about a glut of OF or IF or RP, but if you can address glaring weaknesses, I think you do that.

I’d take that deal in a second. So would the Twins. The Dodgers, however, would not.

Absolutely trade 2.5 years of Duran for 6 years of a starting catcher. That's an easy one. It's also more than they will give up, unfortunately. Rushing's minor league track record is very good. 68 AB's is not enough of a sample to be meaningful.

Saves don’t interest me. He’s a really great reliever and unless I’m blown away by an offer, I keep him at least one more year. You don’t need to make Ryan an offer of $125M for five years. You still have him for two more. Doesn’t mean it’s a terrible idea, but I don’t think there are any long term deals/extensions before a team sale happens.

If you're buying for the future, then you need to ask yourself who are the guys that we think will grow and fill a role. Then plan accordingly. Putting Buxton and Correa aside, as they aren't going anywhere, I think the Twins look at Lee, Keaschall, Wallner/Larnach (?), and Jeffers as guys who they think either fill a role or will grow into it. I think they would like Lewis to grow into a role as well, but we'll see if that actually happens. That means that they definitely need OF/DH/1B/C#2. That could change if they see ERod and Jenkins as close enough to fill the OF gap, while Culpepper seems like he's another year away. Right now DH/1B is a little bit of a black hole. Backup (or primary) catcher would be a nice idea also. Work on filling those as a first step. Don't try to change the team completely in the short term OR try to get short term stopgap veterans to block the youth movement. Play the guys who you think will be there in 2027, but start in 2026.

Well thought out and well supported article. Thank you for not indulging in silliness that would have his season as “greatest ever” or anything like that. Being an excellent season is just fine, I’ll gladly put it in the group of all-time Twins seasons. Indeed Buxton is having an excellent season, one that will put him in the top ten all-time for Twins IF he continues to put up numbers for the rest of the season — which for Buxton is a pretty big IF. To me, his potential to be the Twins only 30-30 player is his real ticket into that club. It’s not very common league wide, and since it hasn’t ever been done by a Twin, it would be very memorable.

I think there are three players who are untouchable on the Twins team — Buxton, Ryan, and Jeffers. In each case, the Twins have no one available to replace them and would probably need to spend all of the trade return for them (and more) re-acquiring similar players. The idea that Ryan will be too expensive next year is nonsense. Worst case scenario, his salary doubles twice in the next two years. That still makes him a steal for a frontline starter. Ober will be the more interesting case next year. If he doesn’t turn back into old Ober, he’s going to be expensive for a guy who can’t get anybody out. Jeffers is needed because the cupboard is bare in catcher-land, so much so that some are advocating for re-signing Vasquez if he will sign cheap. I don’t think that’s a good idea, but trying to come up with TWO major league caliber catchers for 2026 for a team with playoff aspirations is not something I look forward to trying. Buxton has become the heart and soul of the team. As a player, he will still probably get hurt more often than we would like, but if we’ve learned nothing else this season, a healthy Buxton is a player to behold. He’s their best player. He really wants to be in Minnesota. And, he is very obviously the (probably only) guy on the team that has the ability to rally the troops. For everybody else on the team, it isn’t difficult to see who the replacement for them will be sooner rather than later. That should make them all available, for the right place. It’s not a fire sale. It’s allowing people to shop at your store. Think “for sale” not “on sale”. If Falvey can’t get the price that he wants (especially for guys with 2+ years of control left) then he should walk away.

I think remaining flexible is definitely important but I think that the definition of "mistake pitch" changes as you move up the ladder. A mistake pitch in beer league might be pretty easy for anyone to see, but as you ascend, they become less recognizable to guys like me because they are not disastrous pitches. However, those are probably still recognizable to actual professional hitters, or at least they should be. Your point is well taken, are we going up to the plate to "try even harder" to do what we were doing in Single A? I can't answer that, but I do know that the margin for error becomes a whole lot less as the competition gets better around you. It's true in the NFL, the NBA, and it's true in MLB as well. Some great college players can't cut the professional leagues because they have finally run up against the limits of their abilities. I think it's the same way for minor league baseball players making the transition to MLB. I'm still holding out hope that isn't the case with Lewis (or Julien for that matter), but it's getting harder to do that all the time.

If only that player's performance were the same now. 2023 Eddie Julien was pretty useful. So was Lewis back then. Now. . . not so much in either case.

Sadly, it is possible that this is really the case. There have been others like this. . . Joe Charboneau, Kevin Maas, Bobby Crosby. I hope he gets healthy and figures it out, but at the moment he either belongs in St. Paul or on the IL. If he can't figure it out, he will be another of those "what if" players. Someone brought up Eddie Julien. They were both good in 2023, with Lewis being a bit better, albeit in half as many plate appearances. However, Lewis for the past 12 months has been worse than Julien was when he was declared "unplayable", but yet he has gotten way more run than Eddie ever did. Lewis desperately needs to go figure it out where there is decidedly less pressure and attention. Maybe then he can realize all of that potential that he flashed a couple of years ago.

Strangely, the number of hitters having pretty lousy seasons but yet having the team near .500 is a situation that I find frustrating but kind of encouraging at the same time. If someone with a good season can regress to the mean in the remaining season, then surely someone with a terrible season can also regress (progress?) to the mean in the remaining season. Lewis has been horrible. C4 has been pretty bad. Wallner is mostly just disappointing, with a barely over average production from the RF/DH spot. I'm not sure how optimistic I am that these guys will return to form, but it does allow me to have hope. Don't forget the others on the offensive side of the ball. Larnach and Jeffers have been "OK". Either or both of them could catch fire as both have done in the past. Also, nothing would surprise me out of Castro or Bader. They seem to be the guys who pretty consistently rise to the occasion. Continued development from Lee or a surprise call up like Julien could also keep the fires burning. Let's go Twins!

That is certainly true, but isn’t really the point. If you can have a better than average player at every position, you will likely have a very good team. Production at first base, now that’s a major problem. Production when Vasquez catches, that’s an even bigger one. It would be awesome to have a top five player at catcher, or every spot on the diamond. However, that’s not really necessary to have a good team. Having a player or two in the top five is critical to that as well. For us, that’s Buxton and should be C4 or Lewis, but that’s not happening right now, and is probably one of the main reasons the offense has underachieved this year.

Jarren Duran is a nice player. He was excellent last year. This year he is profiling more toward pretty good. I don't really have a problem with him, per se, but in order to trade a good starting pitcher like Ryan, I need much more than an outfielder. Also, in theory at least, two of our top prospects in ERod and Jenkins are outfielders, so I'm not sure I see the need. Now, if they could still lay their hands on a young quality catcher, I might at least pick up the phone. . . That's an area of major need on this team -- but I still probably don't trade Ryan.