Rod Carews Birthday

I guess I’m in the minority, but I think that this is exactly the kind of article that needs to be written about Brooks Lee — one with some analysis that can help us understand what his issues are. If Brooks Lee can’t figure out how to be an above average hitter it puts pressure on him to be an Andrelton Simmons type defender — which is really hard for a guy who is as slow as he is. I’ve long been amazed at the love for Brooks Lee. The hype has been out of control since we drafted him. When he was drafted we were told that he didn’t have as high a ceiling as others in his draft class but that he was as close to a sure thing as there could be because he had such a high floor. Well. . . . his floor seems to be below average major league hitter with very below average foot speed. In my world, Brooks Lee needs to get the bat going sooner, not later. At this point, Eddie Julien’s career numbers are substantially better than Brooks Lee’s career numbers (OPS+76 for Lee vs. 98 for Julien).

Yes they do, but when they arrive there, they discover many (mostly HS) players who have slowly worked their way up to that level, which is why the better college guys seem to do very well initially at low-A before moving up. I think that the best ones are put there as a confidence booster to get their feet under them in professional baseball.

Sometimes people want to stay because they are invested in a place or a team, knowing that poor management is often temporary. Whenever I was in that situation, I stuck around because I wanted to, and in each case, I survived longer than the bad management. Some players, like Bader or France, have only been here for a few months and have little to nothing invested personally and emotionally in the team. Being trade probably isn't a huge deal one way or the other for them. For others -- Duran, Varland, etc. -- they have a long history with the organization that has been more good than bad, plus some loyalty to the team that gave them their chance. A trade for players like that would be a pretty traumatic experience. Some are in the middle -- Paddack, Correa -- with a moderate level of time with the team. Those are players that might break either way. At the end of the day, these guys are human beings just like we are; and they have a variety of emotions and motivations to do what they do. I think it is simplistic to suggest that "everybody wants out" or "everybody wants to stay", just like it is silly to suggest that Baldelli (or any manager) is the best or worst manager ever. The truth likely lies in between.

Given the amount of activity at the trade deadline, Larnach was a player I expected to be moved -- perhaps for another player in a similar situation who is solid in some ways but not living up to expectations/ability. Depending on the raise he gets in arbitration, he may be a non-tender candidate this winter. I agree with @old nurse that he needs to be better than slightly below or even slightly above average as a DH or corner outfielder (who isn't a great fielder). His production just doesn't play at a position where all of the value comes from hitting. The problem, however, is that the Twins don't really have anybody to replace him right now. Alan Roden may yet be that guy, but since he's injured it makes comparisons and competition a bit of a challenge.

The top of the draft pretty much always has lots of SS's -- it's the position that the best player plays on most teams, so that means the best players are often SS's. When they move to professional ball, the ones that are excellent shortstops continue playing there. Others get moved off to other defensive positions either because their skills are no longer elite for the level or because their bodies change so they are no longer shortstops. Remember, Miguel Sano was originally a "shortstop".

I think you're right on point with this. I think culture can help make an 80 win team "overachieve" into an 85 win team or can be the difference in a playoff series. The best teams do have the best players, but it's not quite that simple because they don't always win.

The question of "leadership" is a complex one. I am not a baseball coach or manager, but as a musician and conductor have dealt with lots of individuals over the years that I think give me some perspective. I am not here to crown nor destroy Correa or Baldelli (or anyone else), just to offer some thoughts. 1. Some individuals are ridiculously talented. In most organizations, that gives them a "de facto" leadership position whether they desire it or not. Some of those individuals thrive on it, while others are uncomfortable with it. The scary part is that it's not always evident from the outside looking in. In fact, it's not even always evident within the organization. 2. Some of these ridiculously talented individuals have "always" understood how to play baseball (or trumpet, or clarinet) and things have come pretty easily for them. They may not always recognize it, citing their hard work/work ethic, etc. Some of those individuals who have had things come easy to them are unable to recognize what struggle looks like in others and so are unable to relate nor offer meaningful feedback. Frequently, they just make others frustrated by their lack of empathy/leadership/understanding. 3. Some of these ridiculously talented individuals who have "always" understood how to play baseball yet are now somehow struggling don't understand how to react to that. So, when they get into trouble in their own game, they struggle/become frustrated, etc. That can affect their "leadership" ability, and it can also affect how other players view them. i.e. Who is that guy to tell me what to do? He has a .586 OPS. 4. Some individuals are very much self-made. They have a reasonable amount of talent (they are major leaguers after all), and have used that as a base to continuously develop their skills. They have faced a lot of adversity, but it has led them to having an understanding of the game well beyond what the average player has. These types of individuals usually have a built in empathy for other players, OR conversely, sometimes have a chip on their shoulder about everything. I think it's why (at least in my mind) a lot of good teachers/coaches/managers were utility players and catchers. Simply put, they can relate and have the knowledge to help others. 5. There are lots of kinds of leadership and many types of them can co-exist or can fight with each other depending on the personalities involved. Some are relatively quiet but are monster players and lead by example (Trout). Some put themselves in the spotlight and seem to come though when they do. (Puckett, Bonds). Some are rah-rah people who can rally the troops to victory (David Ortiz). There are more, with a bit more nuance to them. Some can exist in several of these categories. Really great organizations have many people with different types of leadership skills that know how to co-exist with each other. 6. There is a tremendous amount inside the clubhouse that we don't or can't know. Correa and/or Baldelli could be absolutely terrible inside the clubhouse or they could be absolutely wonderful. I'm betting on somewhere in between for both of them, and I'm also betting that they each work better/worse for some individuals than for others. Maybe getting rid of both should be the solution, but it's hard to know that without witnessing it first-hand. The first guys to spill the tea outside the clubhouse are expressing what THEY think, not necessarily what everyone things. Who knows? The problem may have been Jorge Alcala or Daniel Duarte! OK, probably not, but you get the idea. I'm not here to suggest Correa was a clubhouse cancer or anything like that. However, what I am suggesting is that Correa on the Twins became gradually more. . . . "complicated", both in his own mind and in the minds of others on the team -- particularly as his own abilities ebbed and flowed over the years. My own take on Correa is that he is mostly in the category of quiet example driven leadership, who likes to thrust himself into the spotlight at times. That works pretty well when you are the best player and/or the elder statesman, but no so well when you aren't. I think that's where we were on Correa. Sorry for the long essay, but it's been a long process to get here and will probably take a long process to get back out of it. In the meantime I will continue rooting for my team, the Minnesota Twins, and hope things are brighter in the months and years ahead. YMMV

We all are, in one way or another, so that's pretty normal. I disagree with you but am equally entrenched, so I understand completely!

I want to see Outman every day to find out who he is. That way we can go into the offseason with better info. I’m not holding my breath one way or the other.

Yes. They are both worth a shot in the BP. Neither look likely to make it as starters. Whether they become successful relievers is still yet to be determined, but that seems like a logical direction.

But do you actually think that they will go back to the 2025 payroll total? I don't, and I think that winter trades of Pablo and Ryan are now MUCH more likely than not -- and I was a guy saying it wouldn't happen. Regardless of who that have and what's coming, do you really think that this is the ownership group to nurture and develop that team into a winner? Again, seems unlikely at best.

The best we can hope for now is that it is a situation similar to the Ishbia situation in Chicago that would facilitate a future sale at a future date by enabling an equity stake in the team to grow to controlling interest. However, unlike Jerry Reinsdorf, the Pohlads aren't ancient and there are a lot more of them.

Please slow down the hype train. It tends to get unrealistic and out of control. Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis would likely agree. Give Keaschall some time. It looks positive so far, but he's not going to keep this up for the long term.

I think this is the real answer. Everybody wants the big bucks and they are all hyper-competitive. But, there comes a point when most of them realize that the best path forward might be the bullpen. Reality sets in for everyone eventually.

I'm willing to hope you are correct. I'm just not willing to hold my breath. The 2026 bullpen will likely be a trainwreck.

I don’t think so. If it were that easy, then Alcala, Moran, Henriquez, et al would be pitching out of the bullpen for the Twins right now. IMHO the Twins will be pretty fortunate to “create” one solid high-leverage relief arm per year. Add in a little bit of luck and it still takes a long time. In many ways, this is my biggest gripe with the bullpen tear down. I was fine trading two, or maybe even three if you get bowled over with an offer, but taking away every high leverage arm at the same time seems foolish to me. There is now no foundation from which to build.

You could have put the period after America and saved the rest of the words.

I think that the answer to the question in the title is absolutely yes. What is unknown, however, is how long it will take to do that. They will obviously sign a few free agents for the bullpen over the winter, but that is unlikely to provide much help in a building project. Those arms are more about filling in the gaps for low leverage situations. As.a practical matter, the Twins have produced one new successful reliever per year by converting a starting pitcher. That process usually has taken a couple of years (unless your last name is Varland) to fully come to fruition. So, assuming excellent success of one a year, plus another bonus one if we’re lucky, it will take two years to come up with three really good bullpen arms. Add in a lucky signing or two (Stewart, Colombe), and you could probably have five or six higher leverage arms in three or four years. That’s if everything breaks well — but there are a whole lot of growing pains in the meantime. I have a feeling that fan patience will wear pretty thin by that point.

Yes. But at the moment Lee is effectively showing us nothing. Maybe the thirty year old journeyman can plug the hole temporarily. Playing time for him becomes more critical the longer Lee scuffles. The real question (in both cases actually) is is there anything there.

You can't replace someone with no one, and so far, that's what Brooks Lee has been on the offensive side (worse than Eddie Julien actually). At this point, Ryan Fitzgerald deserves a look as much as Lee. I agree that clearing out that contract was not necessarily a bad move, but it also cost the team $30M+ (for no player) to do so. It's a benefit that is not without a cost.

It certainly does look like Royce’s defense has taken a turn upwards. Nature of defensive statistics/small sample size/et al means we need to see a bit more to be sure, but I like this as a step in the right direction. Now the bat. . . . Hmmmmm. . .

I’m in total agreement on this. If you are trying to build for the next window, it makes sense to have a top notch starting pitcher as a veteran left over from the previous team. I think they would be well served by having either Pablo or Ryan stick around. I know people are salivating over what they think he would return in trade, but I would argue that Joe Ryan is also that valuable to the Twins as the leader of the next strong rotation.

“He has a solid floor” That’s a scary statement to me. It’s as Charles Barkley says when someone has a great personality. It means they’re ugly. That overstates it a little, but someone at the point of being drafted in the first round should really only have superlatives in his description. I’m hopeful that between Culpepper and Houston, the future shortstop is in the fold, but they both have plenty left to prove.

Lee is going to need to be an outstanding defender in order to be useful. Right now his career numbers are much lower than Eddie Julien’s, who we have bounced up and down to St. Paul, and who most consider unplayable (partly due to defense). When he was drafted, he was sold as maybe not having as high of a ceiling as others, but his floor was high and solid, they said. He’s downstairs looking up at the floor of being a serviceable ML baseball player right now. Could he turn it around? Maybe, but I’m not super optimistic. I think that there is no other player for whom the rest of the season is as critical as Brooks Lee. This is his audition, and I think it is make or break. On a related note, finding out who Royce Lewis is going to be would be nice as well. I think it is far from certain that he will be a star at this point.

I think that this was likely a factor as well. Saving cash in other areas may have made that trade happen.