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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I suspect they may have just told Sano privately: "don't slide" That may not play well publicly, though.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like Morton may retire, or just return to the Astros for another year (maybe on a qualifying offer?). Seems doubtful he'd want to come here.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Methinks Detroit is gunning for a top-3 pick next June -- they are only 1.5 games out of that spot now: http://www.tankathon.com/mlb
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Corbin is a FA this winter, and if MLBTR's $150 mil estimate is remotely correct, Arizona may be unable to retain him with or without Greinke, or may decide to let him go -- and Greinke wouldn't seem so bad of an alternative at 3/100. Pollock is going to be 31 next year and is 3 years removed from being a star, so I'm not sure he will get that much. And Goldschmidt isn't a FA until after 2019 -- seems like they could keep Greinke at least for one more year, and of course the 2 remaining years may not be too onerous by that point if they decide to keep him beyond that. FWIW, Greinke has a limited no-trade, able to block deals to 15 clubs, and if the Twins are on that, I'd guess the idea is moot as well. I like the idea in theory, but in practice these deals seem hard to actually pull off. How many good players are salary dumped by good teams? When the Phillies traded Hamels, they were pretty bad and clearly rebuilding. A competitive team may not be so eager to try that maneuver. I like the idea of investigating Greinke, but we should probably be prepared to enact a plan B instead.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    The game is afoot! Twins: Jake Odorizzi is serving as his own opener! 1. Joe Mauer (L) 1B 2. Jorge Polanco (S) SS 3. Logan Forsythe ® 2B 4. Robbie Grossman (S) RF 5. Tyler Austin ® DH 6. Jake Cave (L) CF 7. Miguel Sano ® 3B 8. Johnny Field ® LF 9. Chris Gimenez ® C Tigers: Daniel Norris (L) -- not as tough as Chuck? 1. Jeimer Candelario (S) 3B 2. Christin Stewart (L) LF 3. Nicholas Castellanos ® RF 4. Victor Martinez (S) DH 5. Jim Adduci (L) 1B 6. Mikie Mahtook ® CF 7. Grayson Greiner ® C 8. Dawel Lugo ® 2B 9. Ronny Rodriguez ® SS
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about that -- Graterol had a solid season to cement his spot, but at the same time it wasn't necessarily so dominant as to demand moving him up national lists. Some of that is just a limitation of his age/innings/level/league too (his K rate was right around league average after moving up to the FSL). There's some good pitching prospects around him on that list, so there's no shame in staying there for now.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I was disappointed as a fan in July too, but I'm not sure about your conclusions. First of all, "nucleus" is probably an overbid, and the Twins weren't part of a large group of potential contenders who were selling and making their teams worse. Maybe the Nationals, although they didn't really sell until late August at which point their odds were similarly long as the Twins. (And again, they just sold two expiring contracts at that point, Murphy who has been below replacement by WAR in 2018 and Gio Gonzalez who had been the worst performer among their 5 regular SP.) Secondly, while the Twins and Nationals sell-offs reduced their long odds further and made their (potential?) races even less interesting, it likely improved the chances of other teams and the competitiveness of other races. The Nationals fortified the Cubs and Brewers; the Twins aided the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, A's, etc. Why should the league be concerned about that outcome? Ryan Pressly could now be a potential postseason star, something he was exceedingly unlikely to achieve in Minnesota in 2018. I agree that there's a point where too much player movement could suggest a problem for the league, but I don't think we're anywhere near that point. We're talking about a handful of teams dealing mostly expiring contracts, 100+ games into the season.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Odorizzi has started all 30 of his games this year. He has not been used as a "primary" after an opener yet.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Hyperbolic much? Fangraphs gives Cleveland a 42.4% chance of winning the division series, 21.1% of also winning the ALCS, and a 13.1% of also winning the World Series. I'm not sure what odds I would give them, but it would be a lot closer to those than to your zero.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    No, he's on the 40-man roster. Players are only eligible for minor league free agency after they've had their contracts renewed 6 times (so played in 7 pro seasons) and aren't currrently on a 40-man roster. Drafted in 2013, Stewart would not have been eligible until after the 2019 season anyway. He still could be eligible after 2019 if we remove him from the 40-man before that time (and assuming another team wouldn't claim him on waivers for their own 40-man).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Torrez had durability that Stewart has yet to demonstrate (and may not be able to, in the modern game). Torrez was top-14 for inning pitched in the AL for 5 straight seasons, reaching as high as 6th. Without the durability, I'm not sure how valuable that performance would generally be. It might be more like Jake Odorizzi's 2017-2018 in the modern game in terms of value.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. Still not sure how much of that was simply due to repeating the level (3rd year at AA), plus of course rising K rates all over pro baseball. Stewart's K rate was only average this year in his 3rd go-around at AA (23.1% vs league 23.0%), and it was well below average at AAA (17.5% vs 22.0%), and of course again in MLB (13.8% vs 22.2%).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Oh, if you want to watch baseball games that means something, check out "championship leverage index" as described here: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/8/28/17789146/championship-leverage-index-postseason-mlb-metric Huge game between the Rockies and Dodgers starts at 9:10 PM CST. Also interesting tilts involving STL, CHC, MIL, and perhaps ARI: https://www.thebaseballgauge.com
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Kohl Stewart on to pitch the second.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Wisconsin native Jordan Zimmermann may be hung over from a Packers victory tie party.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Better late than never? Well, maybe not at this point in the season. Twins: Gabriel Moya (L) (opener? or bullpen game?) 1. Joe Mauer (L) 1B 2. Jorge Polanco (S) SS 3. Eddie Rosario (L) LF 4. Robbie Grossman (S) DH 5. Jake Cave (L) CF 6. Logan Forsythe ® 2B 7. Max Kepler (L) RF 8. Ehire Adrianza (S) 3B 9. Willians Astudillo ® C Tigers: Jordan Zimmermann ® 1. Jeimer Candelario (S) 3B 2. Christin Stewart (L) LF 3. Nicholas Castellanos ® RF 4. Victor Martinez (S) DH 5. Jim Adduci (L) 1B 6. Ronny Rodriguez ® SS 7. James McCann ® C 8. Dawel Lugo ® 2B 9. Victor Reyes (S) CF Gametime Forecast: 80°F • Clear • 0% PoP
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    So, did anybody predict 15-0-1?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    That was for the 2018 draft. Also, wasn't quite a second rounder -- it was a competitive balance pick after the second round, #74 overall. (Those are the only picks that are tradeable)
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    And streaming at btn2go.com
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I use "Let's Encrypt" -- it's free! You just have to renew every 90 days or so, but it's super simple and they send you reminders. https://letsencrypt.org
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't that Castro? Unless you want to trade Garver, I don't know if there is realistically room to add another catcher this offseason.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you looking at the wrong stat line? Astudillo has only been below .300 OBP once in his pro career, dating back to 2009. And it was clearly his worse season too. (2016, AA for the Braves) Even when LaMarre was hot, he was striking out every other at-bat. That is what it made it unsustainable. As long as he keeps making contact, Astudillo's bat should be useful. (And if the power somehow sticks around, he should be more than useful!)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You didn't have to, after the 4th inning tonight!
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    And with their win this afternoon, Cleveland has clinched the AL Central and the Twins have officially, and mathematically, been eliminated from postseason contention.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Believe it or not, this meaningless mid-September Twins-Royals tilt is on national television! Fox Sports 1.
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