Jump to content
Can the Twins win a baseball game? Join our game thread! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,662

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. When we say "market" we often only look at the available players, and in that light, Plouffe looks pretty attractive compared to the alternatives. But the whole "market" should also include the demand side of the equation, which definitely drops Plouffe down. Indeed, part of the reason there are so few 3B available is that many teams, especially the most aggressive competitive teams, are retaining their incumbent 3B this winter.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Jett Bandy is a catcher, with a fun name. Although Iannetta is a free agent, so I'm not sure the Angels would be looking to throw a catcher into this deal. Plouffe? No. (Well, maybe Storen, depending on how Washington resolves that mess.) A team that wants Plouffe the next 2 years probably plans to compete those years, but relief aces like Chapman and Kimbrel almost certainly have more value to competing teams. Not sure if such a trade would ever really make sense for both teams....
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Cam Bedrosian was a HS SP draftee, but since the start of 2014, he's looked a lot like what we hoped for Burdi/Reed/etc. Still hasn't successfully transitioned to MLB, but obviously as soon as he does it becomes much harder to acquire him. I wonder what Angel fans would say to Bedrosian plus Tropeano? (Although I don't think there's a real serious 40-man crunch, that is two 40-man guys for one.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Tropeano does look interesting on the numbers, kinda like Trevor May. Although I've seen him called a "finesse artist" who "projects as solid number four starter": http://www.scout.com/mlb/angels/story/1518372-prospect-countdown-5-nick-tropeano http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/8/25/9175289/los-angeles-angels-top-20-2015-pre-season-prospects-in-review
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that's an unusual situation at all. A lot of players are useful if you already have them, but notably less useful if you have to sacrifice resources (particularly in trade) to get them. Plouffe is probably on the upper end of that spectrum owing to his defensive position, but still firmly in that group, in my opinion. (Willingham had the added complication of being only 20% into a recently signed long-term deal.)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    As much as I like our young players, there is still a lot of potential for sputtering or stagnation in our OF and at DH. And we already are committed to a Plan A at 1B who has been the textbook definition of sputtering and stagnation the last 2 years. I'd feel kinda dumb if Sano is costing us runs defensively at 3B while we're stuck with one or more sputtering/stagnant guys in the OF/DH/1B mix. If Plouffe can net, say, a good catcher or a real immediate bullpen weapon, I could see it being a worthwhile risk for 2016. If he nets less than that, say some bullpen options that we could approximate internally or on the FA market, I really don't think we lose anything by waiting a year or even two, and in the meantime we have more confidence in our 2016 projection.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, explore away. I just think you might be overrating the positive effect of "balancing the roster" by trading Plouffe prior to 2016.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I never suggested that was your argument. Like you, I was speaking of his relative trade value.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    When you make statements like : It does seem to put more emphasis on the subtraction of Plouffe rather than what the return would be, that's all. Not trying to invent strawmen. I suspect we are all in agreement about investigating Plouffe deals, except I just don't think the demand is that strong for Plouffe this winter. If Plouffe is still on the team next spring, I suspect the culprit will be weaker demand rather than the Twins not shopping him aggressively enough.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Angels interest in Plouffe reported at MLBTR, Cam Bedrosian being the lead name cited: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/angels-interested-trevor-plouffe-twins.html
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably don't want him seeing game action in the OF this soon due to the risk of a collision, eh?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Plouffe's value is probably a function of demand as much as anything. Saying he's got 2 years of control is great, but if not a lot of teams are in the market for a 3B right now, or willing to pay much for a 3B, it doesn't matter. And I don't think the 2016 Twins are better off simply selling Plouffe for whatever we can get this winter.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    If Plouffe is likely to make roughly half of $16 mil AAV on the open market in 2 years with no comp pick attached, then why do you think his trade value would be very high now, or appreciably lower next winter? Sounds like he just isn't worth that much, period, which means you're probably not getting many great trade offers and your best course of action might simply be to hold on to him for the time being.. Not a lot of guys with that FA profile get dealt early, or if they do, the return is modest. What did Freese fetch a couple years ago? Bourjous?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Wright is basically their Mayer, he's not getting dealt. And he actually is still pretty good, 2.7 bWAR in a down offensive year in 2014, and 128 OPS+ coming back from injury in 2015. In fact, his injury/medical situation is so unusual, there is a good chance he eventually retires early and/or insurance picks up a large tab. But they are hoping that won't be necessary for a few years, and there is zero percent chance they deal him and replace him with Plouffe this offseason.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    This is quite possible to dismiss, I just did. . Seriously, that trade idea is so nuts for SD, it boggles the mind how often it gets repeated around here.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yankees are committed to Headley, and the Mets are VERY committed to Wright.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if this what you meant, but Plouffe is gone after two more years (eligible for FA following the 2017 season). I'm not sure his value is that much more now that it will be next winter. (Of course, I don't think his value is as high as some folks here do, owing largely to demand.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Note that you also commented on that same poster's suggestion back in June, in case that is what you were thinking of. Plouffe does't beat them by raw fWAR -- Lowrie and Valbuena combined for 7, versus Plouffe's 6.1. Plouffe does beat them in bWAR, although Lowrie logged most of his innings at short and DRS didn't care for his defense there. Of course, Plouffe has a WAR per PA advantage, but it's slight (roughly half a win over a full season) and almost all due to defense, further muddied by some positional differences (Valbuena and Lowrie haven't had anywhere near Plouffe's ample opportunity to become a competent defensive third baseman). Valbuena actually has more Rbat than Plouffe, in fewer PA the last two seasons. As you say, they have issues at first, probably in the outfield and catcher too, and most teams have some kind of issues on their pitching staff. I would be shocked if a speculative half-win defensive upgrade at third base would be any kind of priority for them. Which is probably why I can't find any such suggestion anywhere, except by one commenter at one site.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I hope nobody is digging out trade proposals from the comments section here. Searching the site, I found only one other mention of it, from June, by the exact same commenter, suggesting it is an extreme minority opinion: http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/7/27/9053813/trade-target-trevor-plouffe Seriously, I have no idea why the Astros would pursue Plouffe in trade, for perhaps their #1 org prospect, with Valbuena and Lowrie under contract and producing at a roughly similar rate, unless they can flip Valbuena or Lowrie as part of a bigger upgrade at another position.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks, I figured there was a way to do that at Fangraphs!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Careful, that fWAR list is actually the total stats of the players that qualify as 3B for that team, not just the stats of each team's starting 3B. Notice the Twins have 842 PA, and the Red Sox only 563, the Diamondbacks 1228. See my B-Ref link above for a more accurate look. Still, with your list, while in theory these teams could benefit from Plouffe, few of them are likely to seek him. Red Sox -- Sandoval under contract, Holt and Shaw as potential internal replacements DBacks -- Jake Lamb had better WAR/PA than Plouffe (all of their negative 3B WAR comes from Yasmany Tomas) Yankees -- Headley doesn't profile much different than Plouffe Padres -- given the position full-time, Solarte might not be much different than Plouffe Cleveland -- did pick up Chris Johnson late in the season, also Urshella was their #7 preseason prospect Angels -- declined QO for Freese who isn't much different than Plouffe Astros -- Valbuena/Lowrie produced close to Plouffe Nationals -- Escobar produced close to Plouffe Your best bet is probably Cleveland, who is in our division -- they'll probably prefer to sign Freese or Uribe or deal for a Valbuena/Lowrie type before they give us good value for Plouffe.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Great point. Here you can see 2015 positional WAR by team: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2015 Twins are 14th, but within 0.1 of 17th. Teams below 17th: WSN LAA PHI ATL ARI SDP NYM NYY DET CLE CHW MIL BOS Just not a lot of good matches in this group. I am sure plenty of teams would take Plouffe off our hands if we're selling, but we're not necessarily going to get great value or our preferred positional return (i.e. a catcher or prospects to flip for a catcher).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    But Gardenhire's experience is only with small-market hardware stores: http://puckettspond.com/2012/03/06/the-best-actually-worst-twins-radio-commercials/
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Freese isn't a "true" third baseman? Positive UZR I'd be wary of that strict of a qualifier. Positive UZR his last 2 seasons and 4 of his last 5, basically average DRS for 3 of his last 5 seasons too. Juan Uribe is a older, but he has a 114 OPS+ and average or better third base defense the past three years too. It's a thin market, for sure, but when the Brewers, Braves, Padres, and White Sox rank among the top teams with 3B needs, it doesn't necessarily mean the 3B available are going to see massive spikes in value (as evidenced by the Freese non-tender).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Headley signed for $13 mil per year last season, without a comp pick attached, only 1 year older than Plouffe is now. And he had 4 straight seasons of 2.8 WAR or better, including one at 6.3 WAR, according to B-Ref. And that was from the big spending Yankees who had a void at 3B, presumably this winter the Brewers and Braves wouldn't bid things quite so high. I could absolutely see Plouffe getting less than Headley's deal. And players getting around that level FA deal tend not to be too valuable on the trade market.
×
×
  • Create New...