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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That kind of stuff has been swirling around San Diego for awhile, so I'll believe it when I see it. (Plus, if they're in sell mode with Shields, Kimbrel, etc. -- why would they want Plouffe and his 2 years of control back?)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If we're moving Plouffe, that means Sano is the regular 3B, so the DH spot would be open. I probably wouldn't target Lind to fill it, but it's not unreasonable, especially if there is evidence that Arcia won't get back on track.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    What guys like him are going to get that much? Freese is pretty comparable free agent, and didn't even get a 1/15 qualifying offer from the Angels. Chase Headley only got 4/52 from the Yankees last winter, without a qualifying offer and only 2 years removed from a 145 OPS+. I think if Plouffe were a FA, he would probably be worth a qualifying offer from this team, but on a longer-term deal, $12 mil AAV over 3-4 might be a better target for a FA contract. And that would put him in similar company as guys like Nolasco, who seem to be worth even less in the trade market because similar level FAs are available every winter and the financial risk of signing them isn't that great.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to the rebuild comments, I'll also say that the Brewers had a pretty big void at 1B for a few years prior to Lind, so they might not be as willing to part with him as a team under normal circumstances.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting -- do you have the link? The Astros have Jed Lowrie under contract for 2 more seasons plus a third option year, all at very reasonable salaries (perhaps less than Plouffe's remaining arbitration awards). Plus they have Luis Valbuena under control for another season, and the last 3 years he's been a 106 OPS+ bat with average defense at third base. Not to mention a couple solid looking utility options in Gonzalez and Villar. Plus two upper-minors 3B in their top ~10 prospects by Sickels. Add in one of the best young starting 2B and SS combos in the league, I really can't see them seeking more MLB infielders unless it was a Donaldson-type opportunity. By Sickels, Feliz was their #3 preseason prospect for 2015, quite possibly #1 by now, grade B+/B.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Since I was feeling generous, I decided to do your research. There have been 3 drafts since the new qualifying offer compensation system went into effect. (Drafts prior to that will be skewed because it was much easier to get compensation picks.) Here are the forfeited first round picks in each of the last 3 drafts: 2015: 13, 15, 17, 19, and 27 2014: 17, 18, 21, and 26 2013: 17, 22, 28, and 29 Notice anything interesting? The 17th pick has been forfeited 3 straight years! Still a small sample, but teams do not seem particularly protective of that pick so far in the qualifying offer era. (Also, in theory the forfeited 19th pick in 2015 and 18th pick in 2014 could have moved up to 17th or better given the forfeited picks ahead of them, although I didn't check the order of signings to know who forfeited first.) If you want to divide them into two groups as you suggest ("I bet the majority of the picks given up are later than 17"), 24% of unprotected picks 17th or earlier have been forfeited, versus 21% of first round picks 18th or later.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, one year is larger than the sample you cited. You said "I bet the majority of the picks given up are later than 17". If data exists to support your point, find it and present it, don't just "bet" on its existence and admonish someone who actually looked at some data. (And 5 years would actually predate the QO system, so I am not sure if it would all be relevant to the present year.) And when you find it, be sure to correct for the different group sizes as I mention. Picks later than 17 could be sacrificed almost twice as often and still not be "more likely" to be sacrificed just by simple math.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Cite? Otherwise stick to the topic at hand, and please don't assign other opinions to those you disagree with.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Put another way: despite missing most of the past 2 seasons, Wieters got a QO and is widely believed to net around 4/60 this winter. What does that mean? The demand for good catchers, with the potential to be among the best in the league, is huge. That demand isn't just limited to FA catchers though. The same teams that are likely to drive up the FA price of Wieters will also drive up the trade price of Lucroy. And on the other side of the ledger, if Plouffe were a free agent today, would he get a QO? Would there be a consensus about him getting 4/60 on the open market even with a QO attached? How about if you attached Arcia and Stewart to him too? He's not valueless, but his value just isn't in the same ballpark as catchers Lucroy or Wieters even with their question marks.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, he has also floated the idea of a 3-way trade. Still not sure I buy it, as an available Lucroy is going to generate more demand and better return than an available Plouffe. So the 3-way trade idea still suggests that we can get Lucroy without giving up any player/prospect that is going to "hurt". Acquiring anything better than a stopgap catcher is going to hurt. If you think the trade and major FA signing hurt is equal, that's fine, but yeah, it does seem silly to keep dismissing the major FA signing on the notion that a better option is plainly available less painfully in trade.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, last winter 3 of the 5 first round picks surrendered were 17 or better. Also, since the first 10 picks are protected, it's pretty meaningless to say the forfeited pick is more likely to come from a group of 13 (picks 18-30) rather than a group of 7 (picks 11-17).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If Wieters was willing to sign for 1 year, even at the QO price, you'd have to do it. Not only would that eliminate much of the risk, but you would stand a decent chance of getting a comp pick back if he was decent enough to earn another QO from us next winter.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    "Through 2017" is only 2 more seasons. Perkins is in that group but making peanuts. Nolasco's $12 mil is relative peanuts too. Those aren't the kind of commitments that should make you draw a hard line on adding payroll if it can improve your team.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    From Baseball America: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2015-mlb-draft-order-2/ Forfeiting #17 for a 30 year old catcher in Wieters doesn't seem so outlandish.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously 1-2 year deals carry less risk, but good players aren't generally available on 1-2 year deals. The Twins "problem" isn't 4 year deals they've given to players like Wieters, it's that they gave 4 year deals to three guys at the same position (SP, although admittedly you need 5 of them), at least one of them being a completely unnecessary extension (Hughes) and another was a somewhat forced signing of a lower upside player (Nolasco). And even after all that, whatever "problem" caused by those deals hasn't impacted their budget to the point where it's not feasible to sign another such deal for the right player/position. If you want to say the Twins should have pursued Martin or McCann (or Montero in trade) the past few winters, even at higher prices, you won't get any argument from me. But those options are off the table now, so it looks like Wieters, bargain bin, surrendering talent in trade, or roll the dice on Suzuki again are your choices. Wieters doesn't look so bad then.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Why do you say Salty is cooked? He got cut by the Marlins, true, but he rebounded to a 115 OPS+ in Arizona. Outside his 33 PA for the Marlins that got him cut in 2015, his low point the last 5 seasons was his 91 OPS+ in 2014. I don't think he's great, but I don't think he's some kind of Bret Boone level flyer either.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think "top 20 WAR in MLB" is a terribly useful threshold here, when discussing a mid-tier free agent. Nobody is suggesting buying him to be a top 20 WAR player in MLB. Also WAR is a counting stat, which hurts catchers. Aside from Posey who played a lot of 1B, the next best catcher by B-Ref WAR ranked #59 overall. It's no guarantee, but it's not really that unlikely that over his age 30-33 seasons, Wieters could rank in the same vicinity as Vogt (age 30), Martin (age 32), and McCann (31) did last year.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's highly presumptive to say that "pulling a Mauer or Suzuki at age 32" means he physically can't catch at that point. Heck, Suzuki CAN catch, we just don't want him to if we can find someone better. I'd venture the percentage of catchers who physically can't play the position anymore at age 32 like Mauer is pretty low. Off hand, I know Jaso has hung up his catcher's mask, but he was also a below average catcher to begin with. Plenty others (Avila) have soldiered through multiple concussions. And Wieters doesn't even have a documented concussion history that I'm aware of. If Weiters falls off offensively, and even if he experiences some nagging injuries and a concussion, there's still a strong chance he can cover the position into his mid-30's like Jason Kendall, no worse than Suzuki is doing now and obviously with better upside.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I could see them wanting to retire a number from the 2002-2010 era, but Mauer will cover more of that Twins period than Hunter.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I doubt that 1500 RBI would be that important. First of all, there are plenty of recent non-HOF names above that threshold -- Sheffield, McGriff, Kent, Delgado -- plus a ton more just below it. Second, as much as baseball loves its round numbers, I don't think there's a strong frame of reference for career RBI totals, meaning their predictive power is a lot lower than, say, 300 wins, 600 HR, or 3000 hits. For example, I don't even know off hand the record for career RBI, or even the elite range for them unless I do some quick math in my head. (The threshold of 1500 also feels a lot less "round" than 3000 or 300 or 600.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Hunter did use his profile to campaign on the issue, so I'm not quite sure it's the same as simply overlooking your grandma's opinion on it. If I were Torii's teammate, his campaign would probably compel me to make sure I spoke out on the issue myself, not to antagonize Torii but to be absolutely clear I didn't appear complicit in this attitude from my co-worker/workplace/industry. I think it's also fair to take that stance as a fan too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    True. I guess the "loyalty and affinity" seem a lot less "cool" when it's coming from the desperate rebuilding team rather than the fiery veteran player.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    KC gave Rios $11 mil (plus a 2016 mutual option), so I don't think Torii's salary was beyond their consideration.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    "Almost solely"? I am almost certain Torii came back to the Twins in part for the platitudes and tributes, although I can't really blame him for that. It was a unique opportunity. He was a good player, a respected veteran, but retiring for these Royals and overshadowed by their pennant aspirations, I am not sure there would have even been a good opportunity for polite applause upon his farewell. He certainly wouldn't have gotten standing ovations, curtain calls, career retrospectives on the jumbotron (which started on opening day, IIRC), carrying out the lineup card on the last day of the season, etc. for any other club. And of course the full power to claim a 2016 roster spot again if he wanted it. Again, not that I blame him, but I'm not seeing his return to Minnesota as "solely" altruistic. Even him claiming the title of undisputed clubhouse leader, while beneficial for his Twins teammates, was probably a nice ego stroke for Hunter too after often playing under a group leadership dynamic in LA, Detroit, and even his first go-around with the Twins.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Torii's approach amounted to practically the same thing by the end of the season (which frankly would have made it kind of annoying if he hadn't retired this offseason).
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