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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins: Chase De Jong ® 1. Joe Mauer (L) 1B 2. Logan Forsythe ® 2B 3. Eddie Rosario (L) DH 4. Robbie Grossman (S) LF 5. Jake Cave (L) CF 6. Willians Astudillo ® C 7. Max Kepler (L) RF 8. Ehire Adrianza (S) SS 9. Gregorio Petit ® 3B Royals: Ian Kennedy ® 1. Whit Merrifield ® CF 2. Adalberto Mondesi (S) SS 3. Alex Gordon (L) LF 4. Salvador Perez ® DH 5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 1B 6. Jorge Bonifacio ® RF 7. Rosell Herrera (S) 2B 8. Alcides Escobar ® 3B 9. Cam Gallagher ® C
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically, Astudillo has never been released -- just not added to a 40-man roster until this year, so he's been able to elect minor league free agency the past few offseasons. Like Dereck Rodriguez last offseason. Still, the effect is largely the same -- 3 orgs passed on adding him to the 40-man before he came here. Although there were some mitigating circumstances to those decisions -- when the Phillies faced that choice, he was still in A-ball; the Braves, after he had his worst season as a pro, at AA; the Diamondbacks, after he missed most of a season to injury.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely fun to see Astudillo, although for me it comes with a tinge of regret too -- there was absolutely an opening to see if he could have provided this team with a spark back in May/June. (Similar story with Cave, who could/should have been up when Buxton first hit the DL way back in April.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Way too many variables, and way too small of a sample, to quantify Hunter's leadership from this data. Just an example, your analysis implies we should give Hunter's leadership partial credit for Victor Martinez being +7.1 bWAR better in 2014 than in 2015, or Pujols being +3.3 bWAR better in 2012 than he was in 2013, or Verlander staying healthy in 2014 but getting hurt in 2015, or Anibal Sanchez starting +17 games for the 2013 Tigers over 2012, or Ervin Santana being +5.5 bWAR in 2008 over 2007, etc. (Beyond any defensive credit behind the pitchers, of course.) I'm open to the idea of leadership as a meaningful factor, but it's this kind of analysis and conclusions that would actually turn me the other way on the issue.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    If that's the case, why did the Twins trade him for no discernable benefit? Even when hurt, wouldn't we want to keep him around to help Garver or even Astudillo? If not help our young pitchers in September once he is healthy himself? Also, the Cubs weren't necessarily acquiring Wilson to play him, at least not in the same role as the Twins were doing. They have 2 catchers already -- they could have simply looked to Wilson as a no-cost upgrade over Gimenez for 3rd string. Which doesn't really speak to whether they think his overall skill set is worth regular playing time.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    He's in Detroit! Gardy's pitching coach again: http://m.tigers.mlb.com/roster/coaches/ Steve Liddle and Joe Vavra on that staff too...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think those ticket buyers know the risks. Plenty of teams fail to play "meaningful" games in August and September every year, even without deadline fire sales.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The trade deadline used to be June 15, until 1986. Rick Sutcliffe was one of the famous old "deadline deals", traded June 13, 1984.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty good results last year, but not peripherals. Busenitz had a 19% K rate in MLB last year. The Twins didn't bring back any reliever with a lower mark in 2017. Similarly, I wonder how good his Rochester performance was this year, in context. 28.7% K rate looks good, but it was below that of Anderson, Harper, and Eades at the same level. Good reliever performances like this don't seem to be predictive of much, if anything.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    How meaningful is a partial sample of a partial season of this stat, though? FWIW, Berrios had +5% K rate with Gimenez as compared to Castro in 2017. Is that less meaningful to the Cubs or Twins?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps there was a biblical number of rainouts for Rochester?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting, but Gimenez has a massive self-interest in stressing the importance of "veteran presence", leadership, etc. It would be similar to me stressing the importance of cheap, nerdy fans.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Polanco did receive a decent signing bonus back in 2009 too. He was regarded as a notable international signing that year, along with Sano and Kepler. (Polanco and Kepler has roughly the same promotion schedule too, as did the lesser-regarded 2009 signing Kennys Vargas.)
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Correct. Note that his age 20 and 21 MLB promotions were only for a few days each, and only mid-season -- he wasn't even recalled for September roster expansions those seasons. It was strictly an "emergency" call up situation. (But a credit to Polanco that they were willing to do it.) And of course, he was only a full-time MLB player at age 22-23 because the old front office screwed up and lost their potential 4th option year on him (he switched rookie ball leagues midseason 2010 so he accumulated too many days active that season, and it counted as a "full" season). He did move up steadily, but it wasn't quite as aggressive as it looks.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    How so? He's not getting by on BABIP. In fact, his BABIP has been well below average this year. His power might regress down, but that BABIP could regress up to make up for it. If he can keep avoiding strikeouts, he can be successful whether he walks or not.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Murphy might be pretty good with the glove, though. BP ranks him 9th among catchers in 2018, despite not a lot of playing time: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425 Bobby Wilson is 23rd in comparable playing time, but is 5.5 runs behind Murphy (half a win or so). Arizona catchers rank 4th, 9th, and 19th. They've had a pretty incredible year pitching, that is for sure. (Although it is starting to look like they may fall short of postseason qualification.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No, MLB stats, but 2017 for both.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Perfect! Our replacement switch-hitting utility guy is already in-house! How's Vargas's glove at short?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know about "star". They could just view him as a 3+ WAR guy when healthy, even with the questionable offense. An extra year of that still has value. In which case, the Sep. 1st decision had little to do with fixing his 2015-2017 offensive output.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I wasn't suggesting anything about their belief in Buxton's future. I was just saying, it's hard to spin their Sep. 1st decision to be about his 2015-2017 performance, given they made a very different decision with virtually all of that same data fairly recently. I'd say it's more likely that they're actually pretty comfortable with his defense-first, streaky-offense profile, but they saw a window to manipulate his service time in 2018 and took it. (Not that there's anything necessarily wrong with that -- but it could have been handled much better than dropping the hammer with a laundry list of excuses on Sep. 1st.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    And 43 healthy MLB PA ago, the Twins looked at that same career line and thought it was worth an opening day job and an extension offer (although who knows for how much). 43 healthy MLB PA later, and the same career line apparently deserves to get sent home, even with expanded rosters and the minor league season complete. That's the juxtaposition that bothers me. I have no qualms about a Sano-to-Ft.-Myers-style rebuild project for Buxton, but it's a little suspicious and/or poor planning to not announce that until Sep. 1st. (Heck, given that the Sano thing clearly wasn't about service time -- he was sent down a few days *after* reaching 3 full years service -- I think linking his situation to Buxton's no later than August 1st or so could have spared the Twins some grief.)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The intent of this rule is to prevent teams from leveraging an injury to help a guy clear trade waivers. It looks like Toronto may have done that here, although it wasn't necessarily egregious -- Donaldson had just started a rehab assignment, so he probably was clear to be activated at any time. The weirdest part is how an MLB official was apparently involved, warning teams about Donaldson's health ("buyer beware"). Is that normal? I wonder if any of the teams asked at the time, "why is he even allowed on trade waivers then?" Because that warning could have discouraged claims (although it likely discourage Cleveland as much as any contender, and Cleveland had the top waiver priority among contenders anyway). It's tricky, because I think he was close to returning and MLB didn't want to prevent a trade, and at the same time, they didn't want a team to claim him, get stuck with the full contract, and complain they received damaged goods. At the very least, the league probably should have told Cleveland they couldn't keep him on the DL for additional rehab, though.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think that was the argument. I think the argument was, nothing has really changed in his performance since we offered him an extension and made him our opening day CF for the 3rd straight year. (The hot week at AAA was really just evidence to support his current health.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Paul Molitor's reaction:
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I download the image, then in "More Reply Options" on the desktop site, you can attach (upload) it, then "Add to Post". Seems to be the most reliable method for me.
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