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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    That blog post is probably not sufficient evidence of what you claim. Every optional assignment has service time consequences, but that hardly proves the frequency with which they are a motivating factor. Heck, there are posters here at Twins Daily that will speculate about the service time implications of every marginal call-up -- that doesn't mean it is actually an important factor for most of those decisions. The marginal value of the extra year control, or of avoiding Super 2 status, drops precipitously for non-elite players (including former Elie prospects), to the point where it can be (and often is) eclipsed by a variety of other factors. I think, for some clubs, that point would have been reached with Buxton by Sep. 1, 2018, at least as far as a 2018 shutdown is concerned. That is all I read into Chief's comment. (Buxton still has an option for 2019 -- a higher revenue team could also plan to acquire a better plan A and use Buxton's remaining option right away in 2019.) I would expect all teams to hold back a guy like Bryant; I wouldn't expect all teams to necessarily hold back Buxton circa Sep. 1st. That's all. I know you disagree, so I will drop this tangent with you.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Use Fangraphs! MLB non-pitcher K rate is 21.6%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Only 3 qualified batters are at 33% or worse, and none of them are particularly good in 2018 (Gallo is okay, Moncada a bitty iffy, and Chris Davis a disaster). Looking at the top 50 qualified batters by isolated power, only 4 of them eclipse 30% K%. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d&page=1_50 So no, I wouldn't call 33% "completely normal" for anyone (at least not anyone good).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't bring up the union to mean that. It was just part of a list to clarify that Buxton is a veteran in this situation. Although on a practical level, I think the union has to approach Buxton's situation differently than Bryant's. I think the Bryant grievance is still pending, some 3 years after it was filed. There is nothing the union can do with it except use it as a prop for the next CBA negotiations. Buxton's, on the other hand, should he choose to pursue it, would probably see a quicker, more tangible resolution (even if Buxton loses). As for non-start of career service time manipulation, there is not a lot. It is harder to justify, and honestly it is generally worth less than the early career stuff. Like the alleged Drury manipulation, the returns on that seem marginal to non-existant.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Good question! Can't find it now... I seem to recall it wasn't a direct quote, but it was through a trustworthy source like a beat writer, but maybe I am mistaken. I'll drop that angle. My point has just been there was no need to drag this out to Sep. 1st. By the time he went on the minors DL again at the end of July, I think the front office must have known a 2018 promotion was impossible. Interesting to see those Molitor quotes from July 2nd, though -- suggesting that they optioned him so they could start his 10 day option clock and potentially recall him sooner!
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Torres was another start of career situation. That Drury stuff is pretty speculative. The article said he needed 5 more days in the minors -- yet the Yankees recalled him the day after the article was published. He was optioned again a couple weeks later, but it's not nearly as clear that Drury had a place on the Yankees 25 man active roster at the time, as it is for Buxton on the Twins 40 man active roster right now. The author speculates that there is no other reason the team would prefer Bird and Walker to Drury, yet a month later, they traded both Drury and Tyler Austin, and have kept Bird and Walker for their pennant race. Occam's Razor suggests they simply preferred Bird and Walker to those other two, despite the stats. It's not crazy, Drury has been a fairly marginal player himself. The Yankees acquired him as infield insurance but their young infielders really stepped up quickly, rendering him superfluous.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I specifically said it wasn't so much about the official grievance (which I think Buxton would lose), but the reaction of fans and players. And it's precisely my point that service time manipulation usually doesn't come in many forms -- it's almost always about delaying a rookie's debut. Every team does that. But I'd guess Chief is right, that not every team would do this to Buxton -- just based on his career results so far, the Cubs or other big spending teams probably don't value the extra year of Buxton now anywhere near that of rookie Bryant. So you're probably only looking at the more frugal teams that might do this. And then there are simple veteran/clubhouse communication issues. And a team that is more confident / has a track record of negotiating fair long-term contracts might not feel the need either.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but it seems likely that could have been communicated better by the front office. As far as I know, Buxton wasn't optioned to AAA with some mandate to make significant changes, like the Sano to Ft. Myers plan -- the front office, around July 2nd, sure made it sound like it was about reps to get his timing back and get comfortable at the plate again after his injury absences. I don't know about the stolen bases, but I suspect the alternating days of rest thing was primarily driven by the front office, so maybe the lack of SB was too.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Falvey and Levine spoke publicly about it, around his July 2nd option. They specifically said they were optioning him so his bat could heat up before they would recall him again. If they changed their mind since then, they probably owe him a call, and probably before Sep. 1st too. You may not think that July 2nd option or comment was anything special, but optioning a player off a rehab assignment is somewhat unusual, especially when the player is 94 PA removed from being your 3 time opening day starting CF. I get the sense that you and others want to say "Buxton has been hurt and bad so often, he deserves some tough love" but there are plenty of ways to do that without being unprofessional. As far as we know, Buxton has been working very hard toward his return -- I think the least he deserves is timely, direct updates about his status.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Just another thought on this -- are we sure the front office is really being forthcoming / transparent, or do they realize their individual reasons probably seem bogus and they have to throw everything out there hoping something sticks? I mean, the health thing seems suspicious right now -- he was healthy enough to play at AAA, after all. Bringing up his performance would be at best moving goalposts from what they said in July. Saying there's no playing time for Buxton, particular with Rosario out, seems ridiculous. Levine also said they still view him as an everyday player and didn't want to give him less playing time than that -- but of course, sending him home is giving him even less playing time. Plus Molitor said it's an open competition, which implies he wouldn't need everyday playing time anyway. It's not too hard to justify keeping a guy off the 25-man roster, but in the context of expanded rosters, each of these reasons, or even combinations thereof, are not particularly convincing. The Brewers didn't try to justify keeping Hardy off their expanded rosters; rookies Dozier and Hicks had much more compelling cases for being sent home in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Also worth remembering that Falvey seemed to deny the service time factor a couple days before Levine admitted it.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that in one of the more famous "veteran" service time manipulations -- JJ Hardy in 2009 -- he still got called up Sep. 1st when rosters expanded. It must be pretty rare to send home a veteran, healthy enough to play, who's already on the 40-man roster in September.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    There are more differences than that. Those examples were all players who hadn't yet played in MLB, thus weren't union members, thus weren't on the 40-man roster with at least some expectation they'd be called up when rosters expanded. You may not particularly care about those differences, but they exist. I don't think they will matter from an official grievance standpoint, but Buxton, fans, and the rest of the Twins clubhouse might react differently here than they would to, say, Royce Lewis getting the Kris Bryant treatment in April 2020.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If the president of your company personally gives you a specific assignment (the front office optioning Buxton on July 2nd), then it's pretty careless of them to let a middle manager or other intermediary give you unspecific feedback in terminating it.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    It is not arbitrary. July 2nd, the Twins activated him from the MLB DL (for the toe) and optioned him to Rochester. (He went on the minor league DL later for the wrist.) You can see it in his MLB.com transactions list: http://m.mlb.com/player/621439/byron-buxton July 2, 2018 Minnesota Twins optioned CF Byron Buxton to Rochester Red Wings. June 19, 2018 Minnesota Twins sent OF Byron Buxton on a rehab assignment to Rochester Red Wings.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Liriano and Santana were different situations -- both had already pitched in MLB, so it wasn't like they were accelerated. They may have gone to the pen for a bit to control their innings. Perkins was an example. Looks like Garza was basically Liriano's replacement in the rotation. The Twins weren't competitive with Meyer during Gardy's tenure (2013-2014) -- did Molitor want to open the 2015 season with him in the pen? They also opted not to recall him late in 2015 after he shifted to the pen at AAA.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't think it's necessarily piling on, it's more two sides to the same coin. If the plan was more than just "warm up his bat", or if the plan changed with his wrist injury in mid to late July, they should have communicated that then; failing that, and waiting until Sep. 1, they probably shouldn't have left the explanation to an intermediary. As for "what was going on", the articles around his July 2nd option all reference the front office's stated desire to see his bat get going before a MLB recall. Buxton had no reason to believe he was on a Sano-style project assignment (if that's even the case now, or if it's just the most convenient excuse ).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    That's including his OPS while he was rehabbing a broken toe. Since Buxton was optioned off of his DL/rehab stint, with the specific instruction to warm up his bat before they would recall him, his OPS has been .901.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he is saying, the Twins could have bought the extra year regardless (in the form of an extension), but they weren't willing to pay the price.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I still think the "when" is more important that the "who" or "how". It probably should have been communicated before Sep. 1. As far as we know, Buxton was directed in July to get his bat warmed up at AAA before they would recall him.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Tyler Kinley called up by the Marlins: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/09/marlins-select-tyler-kinley-peter-obrien.html
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    His arb award was probably going to be in the $1 mil range regardless, so any change really wouldn't be significant anyway.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just a normal AAA guy hoping for a call-up, though. This was their opening day CF 3 years running, who the front office optioned in July after a DL stint, telling him they would recall him when his bat heated up. Ignoring that context and suddenly treating him no different than Johnny Field or Jon Kemmer on Sep. 1 is kind of at the heart of the communication problem here.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    If Mauer is splitting 1B/DH with a guy like Morrison or Austin, it looks pretty much the same, except with your utility infielder in place of Sano at 3B. Admittedly it might make it hard to roster a non-1B DH like, say, Nelson Cruz. Although a guy like Donaldson could probably still fit.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't realize it, but yes, this appears to be the case: "The news was relayed to Buxton through his agents and by Rochester manager Joel Skinner." https://www.twincities.com/2018/09/01/twins-hope-to-make-amends-with-byron-buxton-who-wont-be-recalled/
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I actually didn't mind the Doug M. handling, at the time. There's no good time around a hurricane, and it was a minor league pink slip -- Steil can handle that. Doug's "give me names and reasons" thing was just a pointless expression of frustration, really. The more important cases are when you need to communicate with players and groups who are sticking around, and you need their buy-in. That's the Buxton situation, and that was the situation leading up to the trade deadline too, when Molitor and the team learned about the Escobar trade on TV. (Obviously Escobar wasn't sticking around, but Molitor and some of his teammates were.) I mentioned elsewhere, but the Sano demotion in June went smoothly (in terms of communication -- not results yet).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Gibson was also in a similar position in 2010, the year after being drafted, and that was with the old front office. I could see the new front office doing the same promotion schedule as the Braves did for Kyle Wright, especially in a pennant race. Of course, they actually need to sign and develop a Kyle Wright first, and get us back into a pennant race too...
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