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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Willingham was 33 years old, well established, and pretty consistent in his career. If no one was prepared to offer substantially better than 3/21 the previous offseason, I doubt they'd be willing to surrender something worthwhile to take on that contract 4 months later just because he almost doubled his HR/FB rate for a half season. (And sure enough that rate returned to slightly below his career rate for the last 2 months of 2012, and the full 2013-2014 seasons.) Should we have just shipped him off to Miami for the Carlos Lee trade return? Or to Detroit for Lester Oliveros 2.0?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    No doubt he was having a good year, and was a fair value for us going forward on that contract -- but were other teams offering much of anything to take on that contract at that time? Better players were moved for not much in return in July 2012 (Hunter Pence and Hanley Ramirez), plus some lesser options moved for basically nothing at all. Teams generally don't pay extra for extra years of control at the deadline -- they can deal with those extra years better in the offseason. It's what makes the Hamels situation unique, because he is signed long term but also viewed as an elite player for the rest of 2015 too. Even in his career year, Willingham wasn't seen as an elite pick-up -- the extra years on his deal were neutral value at best in a trade deadline scenario. Also, Willingham was probably seen as a DH only option, which eliminated one league and any AL contenders already set at that position. And the AL wasn't particularly competitive that year. Eyeballing standings and rosters, only Detroit might have been a good fit (Delmon Young). Who would they have been bidding against? Not surprising if the Twins reasoned that Willingham at 2/14 going forward offered more value than anything offered in trade.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Were teams looking to trade value for him, though, or just trying to "help" the cheap last place Twins save a few bucks?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    No, sorry for the confusion. I was saying that Tulo would probably like to have an opt-out -- he'd easily top 5/98 this winter, and he could pick his new team. But he doesn't have an opt out.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Is Arcia at this point all that different in value than Kielty circa 2003? Probably not that far ahead of Mark Red man circa 2001 either...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    And if Achter and Darnell are strictly triple emergency options, use those 40 man spot to evaluate Rogers and Duffey in advance of Rule 5 like we somehow failed to do with Gilmartin last year. (Or were we just being smart and aggressive and chasing wins with Burton and Swarzak late in the 2014 season?)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    They rode Thompson way too long. Boyer arguably too. Given their upside, the leash should have been much shorter with those two. Also not sure why we had to get more looks at Thielbar and Tonkin, who were actually seen plenty in 2014. New faces would have been more informative. Finally, O'Rourke and May have yet to pitch any really meaningful innings in relief. We've somehow gone about 4 months without actually testing any new high upside options.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody is suggesting immediately inserting them as the 7-8 inning guys. Everybody is suggesting that with a season-long lack of better alternatives to give these some major league exposure to see if they can help. With your plan (just wait for help from outside the org), we could well be shut out of any 2015 bullpen upgrades if we can't swing a reasonable trade next week. Or we'll be FORCED to throw some untested guys into those 7-8 inning roles over the last two months of the season. Me? I would have tried to collect more data on our internal options earlier in the season, AND tried to swing a midseason trade for help. They are not mutually exclusive.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Says the team and player who rested little down the stretch last year in order to secure a $150k playing time bonus, this after getting a $12 mil guaranteed extension.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Nobody's closing the book on Turner, obviously, but in the context of this article, he's clearly failed to develop overall *this year*. He's the worst hitting catcher in AA baseball (min. 200 PA): http://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=5,6,7&qual=200&type=1&season=2015&team=0&players=0&sort=18,d 7 guys above him 23 and younger too. Drop the PA threshold to 100 and 4 more guys 23 and under jump ahead of him... However much he may have developed with the glove or game-calling or whatever else this year, he has almost certainly taken an equal or greater step back offensively. Hence "failed to develop", overall, this year. If he finds success again next year, it will be in spite of 2015, not because of it.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I think basically any multiyear FA contract is untradeable in its first season. It was probably the largest bid at the time, and other teams have since made other plans. Even after one full season, it can be a little tricky to unload a multiyear deal (the fire-sale Marlins have done it a few times). It's extra difficult with Ervin Santana due to the suspension, and the fact that there are much better (albeit more expensive) pitchers available now and this winter.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    To repeat, Fien does have an option remaining. So he could be sent to AAA without being exposed to waivers. They also could go back to 13 pitchers if they sent down a position player (say, Danny Santana). I wish we would have done these moves some time ago (and tested Pelfrey in the pen too, or just test May more in a setup role) so we would know better what we need at the deadline.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly hasn't really "dominated" AAA, but has actually been reasonably effective in MLB. And Thompson, Thielbar, and Darnell have not really "dominated" AAA either. The two guys in your list who most "dominated" AAA (Oliveros and Meyer) have pitched a combined 9 MLB innings in the last two seasons. Not saying they are great options, but the Twins haven't really tested the more dominant AAA performers much.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Graham only needs to be on the 25 man roster another 36 days or so, after Sep. 1 it is irrelevant. If you really need the roster spot between now and then you could DL him too.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I think we traded them for part 1.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    If the player with the big contract is still performing well, and still at a premium defensive position, the "wrong half" is still a good deal. Hence player opt out clauses. Tulo would benefit from one this winter.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Joe Mauer had a concussion that season which moved him off catcher. Without that concussion and position change, I think a team would have to consider this for Mauer at 5/115 (although a C is riskier than a SS). Teixeira was a 1B with a 124 OPS+ at age 30 (and had something like 6/138 left on his deal).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but we're nowhere near that line simply by adding Gibson or Berrios, which seemed to be the position of some on this board.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Baez + Castro + Schwarber for Tulowitzki? Now I'm just having fun. No pitchers there, though... The Jays have done some aggressive stuff, and they have some elite young arms. Would they package some with Jose Reyes for Tulo? Again, just brainstorming. If I'm the Rockies, and I am ready to deal, I start by calling the Mets and Yankees, of course. The Rockies haven't impressed me with their personnel moves recently, so who knows what they would consider the best package. Do they even know where they are at on the rebuild cycle?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You'd think Sickels would be aware of Kepler for his midseason list: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/6/18/8804727/twins-prospect-max-kepler-breaks-out-in-double-a I like him too, but all things considered, I don't think he's going to be viewed as elite yet.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, makes more sense. I don't know much about the Rockies system. On the Cubs, if Baez doesn't pan out and they want to cut bait with Castro, they might be willing to make a splash for a SS and leave Russell at 2B. Heck, maybe they could send Castro to the Rockies with a couple elite prospects (dang, they've had a bunch of elite prospects!). I wouldn't want to touch Castro with a ten foot pole, but that's just an example of the kind of creative offers that would probably pop up if the Rockies were serious about moving Tulo and wanted to get elite prospect(s) in return.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Baez and Russell? I am sure the Cubs have a plan. But my point is, in addition to teams with obvious needs like the Mets, Yankees, and Pirates, there are other teams that could have a need soon, or could find a way to enter a Tulo sweepstakes if it began in earnest. Right now, I half-suspect that the Rockies owner just likes having an excuse to talk and hang out with Tulowitzki.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Severino is ranked ahead of Berrios by BA and Sickels. Judge is ahead of him by BA too, and #30 on Sickels midseason top 75. Kepler did not make Sickels' midseason top 75 (although Meyer is still clinging on at #75, for what it's worth ). Obviously the Yankees have other prospects too, but the point is, they have a desperate need and some top guys if they wanted to get into the fray. Maybe that Twins offer is the best the Rockies could get if they set a deadline for next week (although that move might signal other teams to get aggressive too), but they are clearly not rushing this thing. There's nothing special about that Twins offer that would force them to act fast (i.e. Beane offering Russell for Samardzija early last July).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    White Sox could always make a splash at SS too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Pittsburgh could beat our offer too if they were willing to give up Glasnow. I don't think they would right now, but the Rockies can afford to wait and see. Heck, even that Twins offer is probably still on the table this winter, if not into 2016 too. Other teams may see a SS need arise in the next year or two too, especially if they lose patience with struggling incumbents (i.e. Cubs).
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