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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees desperately need a SS and could match that offer by leading with Severino or Judge. If the Mets included just one of the 4 young starters (Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz), they can probably beat either the Twins or Yankees.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rockies 2B may have been an all-star, but he is not a very good player. I suspect some of their reticence to move Tulo might be due to the fact that any infielders they develop of acquire might be needed at 2B soon more than as Tulo's replacement.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps money is one reason why those hypothetical deals never came to fruition... How many good-performing stars have been traded with long-term contracts, much less required cash to be sent with them? Texas sent money with A-Rod, but he was the highest paid player in the game at the time.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree they are not getting a top 10 prospect, and maybe no other team matches that offer. Still doesn't mean the Rockies trade him, though. There is no pressure on them to accept a non-overwhelming offer right now. They could probably do similarly well anytime over the next year or two, if they want.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana had no injury risk? The Mets would like a word with you...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Like I mentioned in my post above, I don't think the Rockies consider that much, and they certainly don't eat any salary in that deal (Gibson or Berrios, no Sano). But I'm glad to see folks are at least coming around to the idea that the Twins wouldn't walk away from such a deal!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Rockies don't listen, which means it's a great deal for the Twins. Sub Berrios for Gibson, or Rosario for whomever, and it's still great for us. The dicey part would be including both Gibson and Berrios (or Sano). That's two pitchers who, while not aces, will hopefully be in the upper half of our rotation the next 4+ years. Or a potential elite 3B/hitter in Sano. Unless we identified another Rockies player/prospect we could add to the deal (and not just Hundley and Hawkins ), I'd probably have to walk away from that.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I noticed his K and BB rates were worse this season too, but for what it's worth, it was mostly in the first two months of the season (when he was coming back from surgery). The last two months, those rates have been much closer in line with his career. Hopefully the Twins would be applying a more critical eye than I, of course.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with your general points, but the trade was pre-2008. Guerra was rated at the time, although it should have come with a healthy dose of skepticism because of it was based almost entirely on age and reputation rather than performance (and he was a long ways away from MLB).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously different players age differently, but see my Beltran example above -- taking on his long-term contract around age 30 for any reasonable prospect haul (i.e. headlined by Wheeler or Berrios type) would have been a fantastic move for the acquiring team. Not without risk, of course, but the performance upside is plainly evident. Players on the "upswing" of their careers can be good, but they are less likely to actually swing up as high as even a fairly pessimistic Tulowitzki forecast, I think. I think people here are under-rating the value of demonstrated performance, even on a contract like Tulo's remaining deal. There's a reason the Rockies aren't trading him, and it's not because no one is willing to send them a Gibson or Berrios led package and take on the remaining salary. He's simply worth more than that. The Twins should walk away because the prospect haul becomes too great (i.e. that package plus Sano), not because of the money or the aging curves or his home/road splits.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Orioles were dangling Gausman, it would be for immediate help like Carlos Gomez. Not a passel of prospects like Pence and Norris fetched. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/kevin-gausman Not sure where the Mariners are at, but Miller is their current starting SS and has been mentioned very little at MLBTR lately. I don't think either is being actively shopped, which Pence and Norris almost certainly were.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Beltran actually went FROM the Mets and TO the Giants. The Giants gave up Wheeler. Wheeler was/became an arguably better prospect than Berrios, and even he has only given the Mets 50 starts of 100 ERA+ pitching so far before TJ surgery (his TJ comeback season will be his last before arbitration). Beltran played well for the Giants down the stretch, but it was indeed a steep price to pay for a 2 month rental and they missed the playoffs that year. But it would have been a pretty great for Beltran at age 30-31 controlled for many years, which is closer to where Tulowitzki is right now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The Giants have been really good at this. Outside of Wheeler for Beltran, it hasn't really cost them in terms of prospects (and Beltran performed very well for the Giants).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Gausman has 5.5 years of control left. Even Miller has 4.5. Neither will be paid more than the minimum salary until at least 2016-2017. Their teams have no incentive to move them now unless they get a very high return. And if that's the case, I'd argue Tulo fits this mold too. For all his imperfections, at least he has a demonstrated record of MLB excellence. You'd really have to trust the Twins scouts if we gave up a lot for Gausman or Miller.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    You could say he reached a PLATE more than any base too...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Hey, at least Boyer didn't allow the first batter he faced to reach last night! (Sac fly) Second batter didn't reach base either, in a manner of speaking...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to Hardy -- maybe Escobar isn't as fast as they'd like their middle infielders to be?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    And, if you are winning the division, you're probably going to say "we're already good enough" and stand pat...
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    If Tulo was 33 and/or struggling, I might be with you here. Fortunately Tulo is only 30, and he's still raking. Now, I would be very open to a scout or a detailed analysis that showed Tulo specifically was likely to fall off quickly within the next 3-4 years, but I don't think you can let generalized arguments derail such acquisitions, or you'd never sign a major free agent, never trade for a veteran, etc.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Big picture: the Rockies have a pretty tremendous talent asset in Tulo, and they are probably insisting on some combination of demonstrated MLB talent (Gibson) and elite potential talent (Sano, maybe Berrios) to force a move right now. I get the argument that that's too much for the Twins to give up, but I think giving up only half of that (demonstrated talent in Gibson) + other non-elite stuff is absolutely in the Twins favor, and would absolutely be rejected by the Rockies. There's just no reason they'd have to do that deal today -- they could probably get a similar haul this winter, or anytime over the next couple seasons if they so desire. Probably more if Tulo stays on the field awhile, or has a performance spike like 2014 again.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure he has value, but he alone isn't going to sink or swim a Tulowitzki trade. Just like Gibson is a good pitcher, but isn't alone going to sink or swim out postseason chances.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    1-2 this year (5-7 since the start of 2011): http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=MIN&year=2015#ump_extra::none
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You think they'd turn down Gibson, but take Gibson + Kepler? Again, I like Kepler, but it seems you're making these guys out to be WAY more of difference-makers than they actually are (Gibson alone in our playoff rotation, and Kepler alone in any trade proposal).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Lester got $155 million, Scherzer $190 million. Do you really see the Twins bidding at that level for Price, Cueto, Zimmermann, or Greinke? By all means, if they've targeted one of those guys and are prepared to bid that much, that's cool too. But somehow I doubt it (almost as much as I doubt they'd actually swing a trade for Tulo ).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean straight-up, sorry if that wasn't clear. But unless Sano, Berrios, or Buxton is part of that extra "stuff", I still think the end result is the same.
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