Otto von Ballpark

Can Cruz really expect a long term deal? I have to admit, I am intrigued by him...

Correct, Buxton is Super-2 regardless, since he is just shy of 3 full years. If he is called up for 13 days, he will hit 3 full years service time. He'd remain in the same 3 years service time group following the 2019 season, if we option him for ~29 days next season.

I have tried to be very clear about the 86%, no intent to mislead. It is the number of games Mauer starts, at 1B or DH, while he is on the active roster. If we are carrying another DH/1B anyway who starts the rest, which is what we did with Morrison and what we are doing now with Austin and what we could do with Sano, what does it matter how the 1B starts are divided up? You don't need a third 1B on the roster, and indeed the Twins haven't kept one (aside from wanting reps for Sano over there, which as you suggest could be a separate consideration). Adrianza didn't start at 1B this year until the front office was readying to punt (July 14) with Sano still in the minors and Morrison on the DL -- it wasn't because of Mauer. (FWIW, Mauer started that game at DH, and Garver was on the bench, as was Astudillo and Grossman. I am not sure exactly what was going on that day, but I don't think you can really fault Mauer for Adrianza starting at 1B. Belisle and Astudillo both pitched that day too, so maybe it was something in Molitor's coffee. ) Mauer's health time on the DL should absolutely be a factor in the decision whether to re-sign him, but it really has little to do with causing a short bench. His replacement at 1B can take his roster spot when he is on the DL. And the team can be more aggressive about putting him on the DL when he is day-to-day, if they haven't started that already. Now, if you want to acquire a new starting DH who doesn't double as a 1B, that could be an issue with a Mauer pairing. But it would be just as much of an issue with a Sano pairing, as he's not starting significantly more than 86% of the games at 1B either. Likely the same for Austin.

2 things: 1. I think it can be overstated. That extra year of control is clearly less valuable now than at previous points in Buxton's career. (Same for Sano too, which I suspect is why they didn't try to option him earlier this year than they did.) Maybe the extra year is still valuable enough on its own, but I think we should keep that relative value in mind -- there is clearly not the same imperative to securing the extra year now as there was, say, back in Buxton's rookie year. 2. This was addressed in the earlier thread, but for those that missed it: seeing Buxton in September and securing the extra year are not mutually exclusive. The Twins still have a minor league option on Buxton, which they could use for ~29 days in 2019 to achieve the same thing. He'd be up before May 1st. Frankly, if he is healthy, Buxton needs reps, not rest. At least when high-level reps are available, and he's about to get 4+ months of offseason rest anyway. My plan would be to play him in Minnesota after the AAA season ends, but also plan on someone else being the opening day CF in 2019 while Buxton gets some extra reps at AAA to open the season. We need to prepare for the possibility that Buxton won't be the 2019 answer in CF, just as much as we should want that extra year of control.

That is a reasonable alternative to Mauer for sure, but it doesn't really change the composition or usage of our bench either. You still need a starting DH and a utility infielder, same as the Mauer plan.

If one player starts 86% of the time when active, and the other player starts even more -- I don't see how there is a roster crunch. It is effectively the same as having a full-time 1B and a full-time DH. Having Sano as your 3B, who you also want to get starts at DH and 1B, makes it even moreso. I'm not suggesting a strict platoon either, although if you rest Mauer for 14% of starts, you can certainly try to time them vs LHP.

Don't you think "what else are ya gonna say" would apply to the Mauer situation too? There is really no benefit to publicly disclosing their offseason/2019 plan for Mauer right now, so I don't see the absence of any such comment as conspicuous at all.

This is what I was thinking too. Mauer is starting 86% of games that he is on the active roster this year. He can be a starting 1B/DH, paired with another starting DH/1B, and if he gets hurt, he goes on the DL and you call up someone else. It doesn't really cause a roster crunch. But to put Mauer in a backup/bench role most definitely would. That extra player couldn't just come up when Mauer was on the DL, he would have to be here all the time. Reminds me of the Kennys Vargas years -- if there wasn't a starting 1B or DH job available, he really just cluttered the roster. Fortunately we were able to send him to AAA.

Sano's performance had already tailed off severely by the time of his injury in 2017 -- .750 OPS, 95 wRC+ from June 10 until he went on the DL on August 19. His all star performance was simply unsustainable without an improvement in that 35% K rate.

Cuddyer brought back Berrios as a comp pick. Kubel... Luke Bard, who hasn't turned out but he was a pretty high pick. Perkins is about the only guy in that list who would have brought back anything. I looked into it awhile back and found Soria was a decent comp, and he did return Corey Knebel. But we didn't have an asset to land an Addison Russell or Anthony Rizzo, and I think Arrieta and Hendricks might represent more coaching/development achievements than trade achievements (although both aspects are involved). Should we have gotten more from Meyer and May? Or targeted different players in trade?

Magill was an honorable mention in MLBTR's best minor league signings among relievers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/08/the-best-minor-league-signings-of-2018-relief-pitchers.html

Rich Becker says this theory is bogus!

I never understood why the Pohlads hired Thad Levine as GM, and Flavor Flav as president of baseball operations... Maybe his clock just means it's time to rebuild?

I have no interest in defending Reusse here -- but maybe he's suggesting the Twins have had trouble picking a lane? Also, those are two different classes of prospects -- those that could theoretically help in 2019, and those that are for 2020 or beyond. I think he might be expressing some frustration that so few of our upper-level prospects look 2019 worthy right now.

Here you go! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aQdU1L6CIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BT_MODis138

Forsythe had a 78 wRC+ and .115 ISO at home with the Dodgers, and a 79 wRC+ and .076 ISO on the road. https://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=7185&position=2B&splitArr=&strgroup=career&statgroup=2&startDate=2017-04-03&endDate=2018-07-30&filter=&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&pg=0&pageItems=30&sort=-1,1

I think ashburyjohn nailed it a few posts below yours:

That's a little harsh. Just looking at last year's champs, the Astros claimed Will Harris off waivers at age 28. Magill may not turn out that good, and even if he is the front office still needs to find more and better relievers, but Magill still may be worth a look right now.

His 4.05 ERA is exactly MLB average for relievers right now. 5.21 FIP, mostly due to the HR, but still a 4.58 xFIP when normalizing the HR rate.

Not so sure. Assuming we are talking about the Baseball America award, the last guy to win it without playing in AA or higher was Buxton in 2013, and before that Andruw Jones in 1995. (And before that, Dwight Gooden all the way back in 1983.) I'd guess Kirilloff, as a corner player in high-A, would be a longer shot in any season. He's had a great year, but usually there is somebody who has a great year at a higher level and/or up the middle defensively (or on the mound).

The Yankees are about $106 mil under the luxury tax threshold for 2019, in terms of guaranteed contracts right now. They should have no trouble pursuing multiple top free agents if they so desire. I guess I don't know what you mean by "top prospects" -- you seemed to be implying that NY would give up good ones to make it worthwhile for the Twins to consider. I don't see that as a possibility at all -- it really ceases to be "cost effective" if they have to give up good prospect value to get a guy with as many question marks as Sano. They might be willing to give us a lighter package to buy low on Sano, just like every other team, but why would we be interested in that? We might as well take a chance on Sano's upside ourselves.

Managers are subject to drug testing too! But they are random -- just like some of Molitor's pitching changes.

I'm not sure how you see that at all. What in the Yankees recent history would suggest they would give up "top prospects" for a guy coming off a 87 OPS+ with negative defensive value? The Yankees already have 3 infielders who are probably more valuable, as infielders, than Sano at the present time. If they happen to target Machado and miss out, I think they would be plenty happy to go after Harper, Grandal, and/or pitching instead.

Andrus can opt out this winter, but he probably won't, given his health/performance this year and a deep infield FA market. (He had done well enough in 2016-2017 to make it a possibility, though.)

What you are seeing would be a ~.572 OPS if Forsythe had his career average BABIP. That would represent by far the worst 2B production among MLB teams this season. You could give him back his Dodgers isolated power too, and that would still only rank about 28th among MLB teams in 2B OPS. His expected wOBA has dropped too, down to .284 with the Twins compared to 2018 MLB average of .327 and Forsythe's own career mark of .326, so he's not even unlucky by Statcast (exit velocity / launch angle). If you are not seeing power, or xwOBA, I am not sure how you can possibly like what you are seeing from Forsythe at the plate, in the context of bringing him back for 2019. Obviously Twins fans can like the results in the present -- a hit is a hit, a win is a win -- but it seems like a pretty bad bet for the future, no?