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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that, but it's not so simple. I mean, his injuries this year were migraines, a broken toe from a foul ball, and a wrist sprain. I'm not an "exercise" kind of guy but I don't know what you can do about those first two. And the last one, he had a similar wrist issue going into last September, and wound up with a solid .790 OPS that month. I have no idea what his offseason regimen was last year, but if you are willing to play him for 3 weeks at AAA right now, health-wise I don't see why you shouldn't be willing to play him for 4 weeks in MLB after that.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but close. Buxton and May were both optioned directly from rehab stints this summer.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just giving away leverage, though. It's also giving away our only chance to see him face major league competition until spring training 2019 (if not opening day 2019, depending on how you view spring training). So you're also giving away a potentially important evaluation opportunity (do we need to acquire another outfielder this offseason? for how much?), and possibly a development opportunity too. You can still get the same extra-year-of-control leverage after calling him up in September, if you option him for 29 days in 2019. Maybe that's the best plan, to maximize his opportunity?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I assume he's healthy now, or he wouldn't be playing at AAA. (At least, I hope we're not rushing him back again!) So let's be clear: he doesn't need to be shut down to "get" healthy, or this would be an easy decision. He should be able to "stay" healthy with a shutdown... but only for as long as you are willing to shut him down.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton is probably guaranteed a decent amount this winter in arbitration ($2 mil, perhaps?). That's pretty much his baseline for the next few years too, even if he doesn't get healthy or produce -- someone will keep betting on that potential through a few arb seasons in his mid-20's. If he's in any way useful during that time, he's probably going to get $25 mil. Trevor Plouffe got $19.65 million through 4 arbitration seasons.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Among healthy position players with MLB experience on the 40-man roster, there aren't many that get sent home in September. Dozier in 2012, Hicks in 2013. Both of those guys were rookies, though, and weren't hitting at AAA either. Jorge Polanco in 2014-2015, but he had only been an "emergency" callup those seasons. -- not much AAA action yet. He also played winter ball that offseason. If Buxton can hit well and stay healthy the next few weeks, he will have a stronger case for a September recall than any of these guys. Albeit maybe not strong enough to win a grievance, but maybe that's not the best criteria for the Twins to use either.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    With expanded rosters, this would probably only make a grievance more inevitable or perhaps even winnable.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gagne was a 3.9 bWAR player in 1987. He averaged 3.2 bWAR and 470 PA per year from 1987-1991. Kepler is currently averaging about 2 bWAR per 470 PA. Bush, Smalley, and Larkin were not everyday players those seasons either.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, that's far easier to justify in modern MLB with a pitcher. You can even send them down just to control their innings. For a pitcher, you're trying to avoid the bright line of surgery which has longer-term benefits. For a position player, are you really avoiding anything other than them getting hurt that month? But absolutely, if there is any specific concern about Buxton's health (presumably the wrist at this point), you could shut him down. But in that case, I'm not sure you'd risk playing him at AAA for 3 weeks right now either.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Buxton has any incentive to sign anything at this point that doesn't still present significant risk for the Twins.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Nick, I just scanned that article, and the names listed were Bryant, Gregory Polanco, Singleton, and Springer. Those were all players who had their initial MLB call-ups manipulated. The Buxton situation is different -- this is a player who has already been on the MLB roster, he's already represented by the player's union, and he will have nowhere else to play in September. I don't think Buxton would win a grievance, but if he performs at AAA and demonstrates health over the next few weeks, it certainly wouldn't be frivolous. And even if the Twins can "win" the grievance process, in some ways they might "lose" just be letting it get to that point. If we were talking about a pitcher, it would be far easier to justify the "shut down" plan. But I think a position player like Buxton makes that a less convincing case.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Gordon was already trending down in some preseason ranks -- #93 BA, #80 MLB. For awhile I thought it would be balanced out a bit by his hot start at AA, but he now has a 49 wRC+ in 324 PA at AAA on the season. Remember when JP Crawford struggled mightily at AAA a few years ago? He still wound up with a 90 wRC+ in 385 PA (and he was still a year younger than Gordon is now). Since the day MLB released their midseason update list (June 21), which still had Gordon at 77, his wRC+ is 34 in 198 PA. Not sure where he placed on BA's midseason list, since that appears to be entirely behind a paywall now. Prospectus was the high one on Gordon preseason - #35 - and they still had him #33 in their midseason update a month ago, although that list didn't include any new 2018 draftees/signees, so it was probably still a drop.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Ha! No. I think 1 year MLB service time is the max for AFL players. Could do winter ball, but like all players -- do you want him to risk injury in winter ball?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    But it's kind of a catch-22. On one hand, 2018 is indeed lost, so perhaps there's no sense wasting service time in 2018. But if 2019 is important, you want the player ready on opening day if at all possible, so maybe September 2018 isn't really a "waste" of service time after all. With an option remaining for 2019, I'm increasingly thinking that it might be a win-win to promote him this September (assuming he's healthy and performing in Rochester, of course). Either it benefits him toward becoming a good MLB hitter again by opening day 2019, in which case we'll all be very thankful given the alternative. Or if it doesn't, he will probably need 29 days in the minors next year anyway.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    JJ Hardy was demoted to AAA in on August 12, 2009. He was having his worst MLB season at the time, and the Brewers promoted BA's #19/#12 overall prospect prospect to directly take his place, Alcides Escobar -- and Escobar did in fact outperform Hardy in terms of OPS the rest of the year. Hardy was also recalled immediately when rosters expanded on Sep. 1, 20 days later. Of course, the Brewers also didn't keep Hardy around to deal with any potential acrimony -- they traded him for Carlos Gomez basically as soon as the offseason started (Nov. 6). So even if holding down Buxton was easier to justify, it could be a bigger deal down the road for the Twins.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    All of those guys had service time manipulation at the very beginning of their careers. If you have never promoted a player to your MLB roster before, you can pretty much always find a justification for keeping them in the minors. And the player can't do much about it, because he is not even in the MLBPA yet -- he is not the union's primary concern. Not so with a player like Buxton. The Twins have promoted him to MLB several times already. To skip out on a promotion after the minor league season ends, the Twins would need a reasonably compelling reason, or they probably could expect Buxton and his union to file a grievance. I expect the Twins could present such a reason, but if Buxton demonstrates health and good performance at AAA, it will be tougher. And it could be acrimonious.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Isn't this kind of Odorizzi's M.O. this year? Some decent, not very deep starts mixed in with some poor ones? He still hasn't recorded an out in the 7th inning all season, didn't even complete 6 last night....
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, this would probably invite a service time grievance. Seriously, I think it is easier to justify the "falling just short" thing at the start of a player's career, before they have been added to the roster. Harder to hold back vets -- they've met your requirements for a call-up numerous times before, just not now until they are 1 day past a service time threshold?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless his performance is off the charts, I am not sure that claim would mean much. The reasons for his initial demotion this year would still be largely applicable in September, maybe more so with the continued health struggles. Buxton is also arb eligible this winter. Maybe we settle at whatever his side submits to stay in his good graces and sidestep a service time grievance?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    A good night for Rochester is definitely better than a bad night, but worth noting that Gordon and Vargas had good nights at the plate too. Buxton really needs a series of good nights down there.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    So with that 2019 option remaining, it is still possible to get that extra year of team control, even if they recall him this September. If they recall him after Rochester's season concludes, it looks like he would finish this year with 3 years and 14 days service time. If he was optioned for at least 29 days in 2019 (or 2020), we'd get that extra year too. A little trickier, but not implausible, especially if we acquire another outfield option.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct -- Buxton has only burned options in 2016 and 2018, so he has one left for 2019 or beyond. In 2015 he spent fewer than 20 days on optional assignment; in 2017, he wasn't optioned at all -- just rehab. Roster Resource agrees -- they show Buxton with 2 options left (they haven't deducted his 2018 one yet). https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    You sign something pledging to be a designated driver (don't worry, you don't actually have to do anything to fulfill that obligation!), and they give you a coupon for a free regular soda at any concession stand.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler's expected wOBA is .332, which is a career high for him but not notably above league average of .328. Benintendi is at .380 this season, also a career high. (The league has been trending up every year since this started being tracked in 2015.)
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Dee Gordon has been a solid 2+ bWAR player the past 5 years. Only thing keeping from that level this year seems to be the move to CF. Not a great value at $13 mil each of the next 2 years, but not really an "ouch" either. (Unless perhaps you're the Mariners and you gave up prospects just to move him to CF...)
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