Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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I was at that game. $5 general admission student tickets for the LF home run porch! Makes me miss the Dome... -
Thought this article was going to be about Roy Smalley or Butch Wynegar. (Although I guess neither of those two demanded their trade to the Yankees.) Great work as usual, John!
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Yeah, the power drop was huge. My theory is that he had to make an adjustment after his 2011 injuries, becoming more aggressive and a bit more of a "guess" hitter at times, and that led to more strikeouts. But he kept his production. After 2013, he had to make an additional adjustment, and has thus far been unable to do so.
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Justin Morneau never was Justin Morneau again, at least in terms of pre-2011 on-field performance. See my post above.
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Mauer's 2012-2013 seasons were Mauer-eque in overall production, but they also saw a significant bump in K%. Morneau's 2014 in Colorado was actually very much like his 2012-2013 Twins seasons, just with a dramatic cut in K% (and a full season career high BABIP). Drop Mauer's K% to 10% and his 2014 line improves to .302/.390/.402, .792 OPS or roughly 120 OPS+. Not far off his career numbers minus the power.
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- joe mauer
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Sure, but that is still a shift from his past and once-projected usage. Suggests he is even further out of the Twins bullpen plans than his spring waiving implied.
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Looking at our lineup, I can't help but think the Twins should have gotten a multiple flyer discount and called up Sano too. Greedy, I know. Seriously, though, I wonder if calling them up together would help their MLB adjustments.
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It was his 4th start, Seth. It seems pretty clear there is some effort by the team and/or player to use him in more of a long/swing man role, probably because he was no longer being considered for a middle relief role in MLB. Not unlike Mark Hamburger's role change a few years ago.
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True, although Boyer was a minor league invite, so zero guaranteed money and no guaranteed roster spot. We probably could have even negotiated to stash him in AAA for the first month like Guerrier, had we so desired. If you are simply looking to replace Swarzak or have a warm veteran body available for the bullpen, that's the route I'd prefer to go. (Although I probably would have paired with an upside attempt too -- Ryan Madson?)
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If you look at midseason trade returns for comparable pitchers, I don't think you're going to like what you see. Actually, it seems most comparable guys don't even get dealt because the potential return is so minimal. Even if Pelfrey still somehow has a 2.28 ERA at the end of July, you're almost certainly better off riding whatever voodoo witchcraft is going on rather than trying to flip him for anything meaningful, given his history. (FWIW, he had a 2.23 season ERA on June 12, 2010 too, in more innings than he has in 2015.)
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I hear you. But from the get-go, Stauffer was in the Anthony Swarzak role. They gave him a chance to start in the spring, then immediately put him in the back of the pen for long relief (and mostly mop-up work). Even before performance and health became an issue, he was never a Burton type investment (potential setup man). Why the Twins felt the need to guarantee $2.2 mil (plus incentives!) for a Swarzak replacement is beyond me -- that's the spot on the roster where you stash the Rule 5 guy, or rotate/audition cheap young guys with options who can actually improve your bullpen, now and into the future.
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This kind of gets at it. Wanting a veteran or two in your bullpen mix is fine -- but the Twins guaranteed money and a spot to a couple low-upside veterans, who both happened to struggle, AND took a flyer on another... so now we're over two months into the season, still with an iffy bullpen overall, and virtually no further at identifying any new bullpen assets.
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I wasn't opposed, but I was seriously skeptical when I saw they had plans to start him. That's not something you do when you target a high-upside bullpen arm. And we didn't have much business adding another low-upside arm to our mix, even at that cost.
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Article: What's The Best Plan For Tyler Jay?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yes and no. Nine 3+ inning games this season, out of 30 appearances, but spread out quite a bit -- basically two every month. His final two appearances in June totaled 10 innings, but in the month of May, he had 7 appearances, 10.1 innings, never topping 27 pitches. -
Good article, thanks for posting! The projections haven't done an about-face on the Twins. Fangraphs projected them preseason at a .457 winning percentage, and they project them at .453 from here out. The only difference now is the good luck of the first two months has to be added in. (What would prompt a real about-face would be a change in personnel, or some players reaching a new projectable performance level, neither of which really applies (yet) to the Twins since opening day, sadly.) As for the projections indicating a dogfight, the entire AL is looking like that. All three divisions have only a projected end of season 7-8 win spread, and the whole league only has a projected 11 win spread (down to 9 if you lop off the Yankees). The two worst projected teams (Twins and Rangers) have gotten off to good starts, a few more under-.500 projected teams (Astros and Rays) have also done well, and all five of the original projected playoff teams are currently under .500 (Red Sox, Indians, Mariners, Angels, and Tigers). Regress all those to the mean, and assume neutral luck going forward, and indeed everyone is bunched up! It will be interesting to see how it plays out -- will some of these good "bad" teams keep it up? Will some of the bad "good" teams indeed turn it around?
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For 2015, Stauffer has a 0.6 average game-entering Leverage Index at B-Ref, ahead of only Graham. For 2014 with the Padres, he was at 0.7, lowest on the team among relievers with more than 15 appearances. Which gives you an idea of how he was viewed by the Padres (and in what environment he compiled his decent numbers there).
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Article: What's The Best Plan For Tyler Jay?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I guess if the Twins are still in it that late, most anything should be on the table. But if he's anything short of a revelation in his minor league innings this year, it's probably not worth it. Finnegan had the benefit of being protected way down the KC depth chart -- he was almost a complete non-factor in the regular season, and primarily only proved useful in a couple postseason extra innings games. I think a fresh reliever for the Twins could be more quickly exposed. So, unless Jay can come up and sustain domination, we're probably better off using the 40-man spot to keep another prospect this winter, and not burning Jay's option years until we have some idea of how the starter conversion will go. -
Plouffe definitely was streaky in 2012, although less so the past few seasons. But you're right, most players of his overall quality will look "streaky" when looking at their monthly splits. More unusual would the average hitter who was roughly average every single month.
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That was 2 days ago, although admittedly he hasn't looked good in these 2 games. (Not that he was going to be a savior, just offered more potential than Escobar/Nunez at DH. I fully endorse seeking other options at DH too.)
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I don't know if Hicks is the "least" -- he's basically tied for last among our current regulars in OPS with Suzuki, Escobar, and Vargas. He is providing some defense and base running value, but all's not well with his bat quite yet. And Buxton could simply push Hicks to a corner, and Hunter to DH, and Vargas out of the lineup (or more time at 1B if he gets going and Mauer does not). And hopefully prevents a reoccurrence of "Escobar, starting LF/DH".
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This is what I was going to say too. He's actually not unlike Pelfrey in that regard, who was pretty up-and-down with Mets and is just finally getting around to having an "up" period in a Twins uniform. Obviously it would be awesome if guys like that could be better and more consistently good, but I wouldn't expect or rely on it happening. We need to add another bat in the middle of the lineup. (I was half-expecting this article would riff on bringing up Sano...)
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Sorry, didn't mean for that to sound critical of the front office. But Pinto and Vargas weren't great bets to be middle of the order bats in 2015, so it's hard to blame the player too much. Arcia should have been able to repeat his 2013-2014 performance, which would have helped (although I guess he was starting to repeat that performance when he got hurt, which is another issue he's had).
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True, but that was a known risk. Pinto has never really profiled as a middle-of-the-order bat, and both Vargas and Arcia were not that far above average as hitters last year with somewhat alarming peripherals.
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Fulmer was a reliever as a freshman, and transitioned to starting as a sophomore. Full-time starter as a junior. Tate barely pitched as a freshman (3 innings), was a reliever as a sophomore, and a full-time starter as a junior. Neither of those paths seems unusual. Kyle Gibson basically did that too. I too would be interested if anyone (other than Duffey) has successfully followed the proposed Jay path.
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Article: What's The Best Plan For Tyler Jay?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In fairness to Finnegan, they've barely allowed him to work on starting. He's been back and forth between roles and levels all season. His high pitch count is only 62, so it's not as if he's really had a chance to fail as a starter yet.
