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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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I sorta understand getting a look at Santana at SS, but for a team that has been so thoroughly mediocre up and down the roster for 4 years, it seems a little too cute to mess with two of their 2014 bright spots in this way. I also think Molitor and perhaps Gardy before him has become a little too enamored of fellow infielders at the expense of outfielders. Giving outsize importance to the primary utility man role, factoring infielders as backup outfielders, etc.
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Outfielders 2004-2006: Span 2007: Pridie 2008-2012: Hicks 2013: Buxton
- 69 replies
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- oswaldo arcia
- byron buxton
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Baseball America's best defensive infielder after each season: 2004: Plouffe 2005: Plouffe 2006: Casilla 2007: Romero 2008: Tolbert 2009: Polanco 2010: Polanco 2011: Dozier 2012: Michael 2013: Santana They seem to have quit such rankings at that point, or maybe they are behind a paywall (although they still do best in league stuff?).
- 69 replies
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- oswaldo arcia
- byron buxton
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Probably true, which is why Plouffe got the distinction the year he was drafted and his second year. But I think it is notable that he received no such distinctions from BA after that. I don't think the distinctions for Hicks are purely on his prospect status or reputation, though.
- 69 replies
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- oswaldo arcia
- byron buxton
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In some ways, those data points suggest we should have given him a longer leash in the OF. It's not perfectly analogous, but in 2012 Plouffe had a breakout season playing 3B, a position he had never before played in MLB and only barely played in the minors (76 games total, and only 8 games over the preceding 3 seasons). We didn't send Plouffe back to SS for 2013, even though Florimon was likely a worse option at the position than Escobar now. In 2013, Dozier had a breakout season playing 2B, a position he had never played in MLB and only played 47 times in the minors. We didn't send Dozier back to SS for 2014, even though again Florimon was the top option at the spot. Not sure why it was out of the question to let Santana continue to play the OF to begin 2015, with Escobar at SS (and only one utility infielder on the bench). Actually, to complete the Dozier/Plouffe analogy, we could have shifted Santana to LF and acquired a CF version of Florimon (ace glove, no bat) to support him (and Arcia, and the pitching staff) defensively.
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You could have had him back this spring. Cleared waivers for the Astros, was sent to AAA. The problem wasn't losing Presley -- the problem was never finding/targeting players notably better than Presley (and some notably worse).
- 69 replies
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- oswaldo arcia
- byron buxton
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Baseball America has some interesting historical ratings. Trevor Plouffe: ORGANIZATION BEST TOOLS Rated Best Defensive Infielder in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2004 season Rated Best Defensive Infielder in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2005 season Aaron Hicks: ORGANIZATION BEST TOOLS Rated Best Athlete in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2008 season Rated Best Athlete in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2009 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2010 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2010 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2010 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2011 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2011 season Rated Best Defensive OF in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2012 season Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2012 season Rated Best Strike Zone Discipline in the Minnesota Twins system after the 2012 season LEAGUE BEST TOOLS Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Midwest League in 2010 Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Florida State League in 2011 Plouffe's defensive rep was probably never very strong (best of a weak group?) and evaporated fairly quickly (he was spending time off of SS as early as 2006, in high-A ball, only his second full season as a pro). Hicks could still be a special case, for both defensive and offensive evaluation (not to mention transition/adjustment to MLB).
- 69 replies
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- oswaldo arcia
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More data points suggesting a deference to veteran's (and anointed starter's) preference taking priority over optimal asset deployment. See also: Pinto in AAA (deferring both to pitcher preferences and to Suzuki), the opening day bullpen, veterans on minor league deals with opt-outs, Correia starting into August last year, etc.
- 69 replies
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- oswaldo arcia
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Article: Short Change?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Didn't do him any good? He had his best season ever at the plate. And what outfield candidates were cost playing time, then or now? -
Article: Short Change?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It might not be a worse option, given those assumptions and an otherwise solid roster. But "Jordan Schafer, starting CF" is not a solid part of the roster. If those AB could get Santana's bat back on track, I'd give it a shot before a demotion. There is no reason that Santana couldn't be valuable in the same kind of super-utility role that Escobar is currently occupying. -
Article: Short Change?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Saying there's no room for Santana in the outfield right now because of Buxton and Rosario is the same kind of thinking/projecting that's gotten us too much Hicks, Thomas, Mastro, Presley, Schafer, etc. And why couldn't Escobar be there at short when those OF prospects come up? And Santana could be a trade chip or a super utility at some point if the OF really is too crowded. But it's not crowded now, not even close if we're starting Schafer/Robinson (not to mention Nunez and Escobar and potentially Herrmann) and have Arcia and a 39 year old lumbering around the corners, and nobody is forcing the issue in the minor leagues. I don't know, I get what the Twins are doing now, and I probably wouldn't mess with it quite yet, but before I'd send Santana to the bench or AAA, I would probably put him back in the MLB OF first. -
Article: When Is It Time To Take Action?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
And if he really needs more game reps outside of MLB, you can easily get him another 20+ in the winter leagues if you want. But don't deprive him of any MLB action just so he can take an extra 1-2 games worth of minor league reps from April to September.- 113 replies
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- blaine boyer
- shane robinson
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Article: When Is It Time To Take Action?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not sure I like that "more than 2" threshold. 2 games a week is basically one per series, or 1/3 of the season. That's 54 starts right there, without really taking away playing time from Suzuki (who started 115 games at catcher last year, within 1 game per month of 2/3 time). How many games is Pinto going to catch in AAA? Getting 2/3 of the starts down there will give him 96 for the season, but that's probably close to the maximum for a AAA catcher rather an expectation. With bus travel, more makeup doubleheaders, etc, I suspect the average number of games caught for AAA catchers is lower than that. Pinto himself has never caught more than 74 in a minor league season. So that's a difference of 20-42 starts over a full season. An extra 20-42 starts over 6 months isn't going to mean squat to his defensive "refinement" when he's been a pro catcher for 9 years already. Especially when he's catching AAA pitchers and in front of AAA umpires. I think the advantage of having those starts in MLB, building a rapport with the MLB pitchers and umpires who ultimately will provide a lot of feedback about his future position, easily outweighs a handful of extra AAA games at this point. Not to mention getting AB against MLB pitchers. And given his bat potential, getting Pinto those MLB opportunities is more valuable than giving them to Herrmann who realistically has backup upside.- 113 replies
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- blaine boyer
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Article: Short Change?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Does anyone think that Santana might be better at the plate if he plays outfield? A variation on what we heard about Dozier and Plouffe when both were moved off short? -
Article: When Is It Time To Take Action?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I assure you, any decision to bench Schafer is not based on a small sample size. In fact, the decision to play him, and make him the sole presumptive Hicks alternative this spring, was probably based on a small sample size.- 113 replies
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- blaine boyer
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As far as I can tell, the three Dominican players who recently tested positive did not play in the DR Winter League this past year. (Although the one American who tested positive did.) Playing the DR isn't the problem. It might be getting shots or supplements while in the DR that is the problem. And it's probably a very stupid thing to do, especially if you already have guaranteed multimillion dollar contracts for the upcoming season like Mejia and Santana did. Or even if you are on a 40-man roster at all, presumably the team employing you at that point is willing to invest in whatever legal shots and supplements you want, at that point. If there isn't already, every MLB org should probably tell all of their players (majors and minors) to not take a shot or supplement that doesn't come from the team (and any exceptions should be cleared by the team). Unless, of course, teams are willing to look the other way while their guys take offseason/offshore PED risks...
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The games were in Cedar Rapids, so I wouldn't expect any Beloit cameras.
- 38 replies
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- jake mauer
- nick gordon
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I haven't done Legends Club yet, but I took my parents to a game in the Dugout Box seats. Padded seats just like the Legends Club, a smaller club/lounge, but much closer to field and the players. Similar ticket prices as the Legends Club too (above the opposing team dugout, 3rd base side, can drop as low as $30-40 if you are patient). (Just be sure to find a service level elevator so you can skip the long walk up and down the stairs to these seats!) Otherwise, I've heard good things about the Legends Club too.
- 6 replies
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- trevor may
- danny salazar
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Article: 2009: Bill Smith's Lasting Legacy
Otto von Ballpark replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I thought Ryan did handle it. He probably would have kept Santana as the ace in 2008, let him walk, and collected a pair of draft picks, as he did for most other pending free agents.- 33 replies
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- johan santana
- max kepler
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Article: 2009: Bill Smith's Lasting Legacy
Otto von Ballpark replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You can say that about any GM. In fact, knowing who to listen to, and when to listen to them, is a huge part of being a "general manager." If TR is smart enough not to let those voices impact major decisions, that's a plus for him. If Bill Smith wasn't, that's a demerit for him. "Hugely positive" is a bit too far. Improving our international presence in 2008 was akin to a business finally getting a web site about the same time -- it was such an obvious and necessary move, it was more or less bound to happen by then, regardless of who was in charge. (And "Fort Myers" refers to Hammond Stadium, and our spring training facilities? I am sure those upgrades are appreciated, but such upgrades seem pretty standard around pro sports these days.) I'm willing to give Smith some credit for those things, just like I give him credit for his aggressive low-risk additions like Pavano, Cabrera, etc. But there's no way those things aren't dwarfed by his numerous bungled high-risk moves.- 33 replies
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- johan santana
- max kepler
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Article: 2009: Bill Smith's Lasting Legacy
Otto von Ballpark replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
2009 was definitely the best year of Smith's tenure, I'd say. His biggest screw-up that year was probably dumping Breslow for Sean Henn. (Signing Mauer *before* his MVP season probably would have been wise too, if that was an option.) Otherwise, in 2009 Smith added Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera, and Carl Pavano for very little cost, in addition to the amateur signings you mention. Then he also got Hardy (albeit costing Gomez), Hudson, and Thome in the 2009-2010 offseason. TR was rarely that aggressive in filling holes, and I think it held us back some years. Record-wise, 2008 and 2010 were similar to 2009, but Smith just bleeded us of too much talent in those two years, setting up the 2011 collapse.- 33 replies
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- johan santana
- max kepler
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Parker: you might want to correct this. Gameday's pitch-by-pitch recording wasn't working for this game (possibly not for any spring game?). It was simply showing the minimum possible number of pitches based on the result of each PA (3 for strikeout, 4 for walk, and only 1 for a batted ball), except for the 2 HR which were both 3 pitch PAs. (It would be pretty remarkable to face 22 batters, with 1 walk and 2 strikeouts, and throw only 33 pitches!) Gameday also reported a pitch count of 35 for Milone the day before, facing 23 batters (5 innings), with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. (Sorry to dig up an older article, but I just found it when doing a Google search for Trevor May's spring pitch counts.)
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Ervin clearly doesn't fit such a rationalization, if he presumably tested positive AFTER signing his biggest contract ever at age 32. (And in any case, tested positive after $55 million in pre-Twins career earnings.) I don't think either side is going to be filled with perfectly rational actors, which is why I don't want one side to have a massive financial incentive ($100+ million!) to see a player fail a PED test. I would definitely increase the frequency of testing before I would even entertain the notion that contracts should be voidable after one positive PED test.
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Yeah, that's a pretty binary view which I don't share, either the assumption that a failed PED test = career-long PED user, and failed PED test = performance is a lie. I have no problem with requiring a PED test as part of the standard physical before finalizing a FA contract, I guess. But Santana's case is definitely an outlier in that regard (has any FA ever been suspended before playing a game with his new team?). Anything more than that is giving the teams too much of an out for decisions that are probably only tangentially affected by the player's PED use, in my opinion. I'd rather encourage and reward teams to be effective in factoring PED likelihood and effects into their pre-contract player assessments, than give major financial relief to teams that fail to do so (not to mention the aforementioned incentives to foul play).

