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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Hawkins was a full-time set-up man at age 27. Pelfrey is apparently going to be a long reliever (and probable spot starter) at age 31.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Funny that the Braves should project worse, when they are the team that cut our primary CF (Schafer) a few months ago.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd argue that Schafer is likewise not up to that task. (Career -14 Rdrs/yr, -5.4 UZR/150 in CF.) Also, at the same time they were penciling in Schafer/Robinson this winter, they signed one of those "defensive red flags" in Hunter and moved the other to the other side of the field. (And presumably Hunter takes away DH opportunities from Arcia too.)
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, 80% of games started went to each team's top 5. 87% went to each team's top 6. Each team had an average of 20.6 starts for pitchers outside their top 6. Nobody here doubts that May and probably even Meyer will start a game in MLB in 2015. The question is, how many? And, what's the benefit of giving priority to Milone and likely Pelfrey?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think people are overlooking how potentially bad this CF combo is. Together, they probably rank among the worst opening-day Twins starters of the TR era, in terms of age, track record, and lack of options. Given that their former teams recently deemed them unfit for even a bench spot, this is Juan Castro territory... And what worries me is that as a "platoon," the Twins might take longer to call upon a new player to take over the position. They might simply shift playing time toward the "hot hand" (which may still only be an ~85 OPS+). I still support Hicks to AAA, but they didn't really give themselves much of a fallback option, for the third year in a row...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to tobi's comments above, I'll say this: everyone has known we'd be willing to deal a starter since at least December 13th (the date of the Ervin Santana signing, on the heels of tendering Milone an arbitration contract). And that Pelfrey would be the easiest for us to part with (shortest contract, worst recent health/performance-to-salary ratio). The theatrics are completely superfluous in this case. In fact, maybe they even slightly lessen what precious little leverage we may have had in trying to trade him, since it is now abundantly clear the Twins had no particular desire to convert Pelfrey into a reliever.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, in 2014, 80% of our games started and 82% of our total innings went to pitchers on the opening day roster. Only 32 starts went to other guys, 265 innings TOTAL between starters and relievers not on the opening day roster. And that's despite the fact that one of our starters missed virtually the entire season with injury, another spent over a month on the DL, and another was traded with two months remaining. That's why who makes the opening day roster is important.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    With a 5th starter candidate reluctantly placed in the pen, the Twins didn't call up a new SP (non-doubleheader) until game 71 last year. That would be June 23rd this year. And that was with fantastically bad performance from that spot - 13 starts at 7.08 ERA, AND a long-term injury. Nolasco lasted with a 5.90 ERA until almost the all-star break before hitting the DL himself, and Correia lasted into August with his 4.94 mark. And to those that think an early-season trade will clear the deck, Kendrys Morales' July 24th trade last year was the EARLIEST we dealt a player in-season from our MLB roster since 2006 when we traded Juan Castro on June 15. In the TR era, only once has he traded an MLB player before June (Rick Aguilera, May 21, 1999). The Twins have been a little more fluid about replacing position players lately, but almost always they have options (Hicks, Arcia, Florimon). Players without options invariably seem to last until at least June (Kubel, Tony Batista, the aforementioned Juan Castro, etc.).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, the post he was responding to seems to be assessing the nicknaming abilitied of our new manager, which is fair game.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Nunez? Loser of the 5th starter sweepstakes to the pen? I am glad they finally sent down Hicks too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Hicks was demoted midseason twice under Gardy, and Gardy was never given another CF alternative in spring training except Mastroianni (and Presley, briefly). If the Twins had signed Fuld before the 2013 season, maybe he wins the job out of ST.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Brock, it wasn't necessarily options 8-11 that hurt the bullpen last year. It is possible that 4 of our top 7 to open 2014 will not even open 2015 in MLB. And that doesn't even include Duensing.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    How much of that is perception, though? I haven't been in Florida, and haven't really been following the reports or quotes coming from down there other than the stats and cuts, but I am more optimistic about this team than the last few years. We were simply a better team in 2014 than past years, at virtually every position. And we have multiple top prospects actually healthy and ticketed for the high minors for a change. Honestly, from afar, I've barely even noticed Molitor and Hunter this year. Pretty sure my positive outlook on the team would be comparable even if it was Gardy and Alex Rios or whoever in those spots.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    With all except Hamburger on the 40-man roster too. If we expand the list, we have recent hard thrower Pryor, plus possibly Thompson & Thielbar, and Darnell the starter too. All 25 or above, all currently on the 40-man roster. Admittedly a couple should be dropped from the roster in the next week, but if the goal was to sort through them at spring training before thinning the herd and establishing a good depth chart, it should be noted that the youngest and probably highest upside of this group were also the first to be optioned out of big league camp. Hamburger, Thompson, and Thielbar, all age 28 with past MLB experience, are the only three in this group to even last into the last two weeks of spring training (excepting May who's starting, of course).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly may have been stashed, but he wasn't retrieved as your plan described. I think you overestimate how much those opporunities get spread around to the lower reaches of that depth chart. If our bullpen was so valuable in the first half, why did we drop 4 veteran relievers who pitched 47% of our first half bullpen innings, and get nothing in return? That doesn't sound like a smart depth chart or balancing the present with the future -- it sounds like spinning their wheels, confirming that all of our mediocre relievers were in fact mediocre. We did it with a few of our offensive spots too. If our bullpen and offense performed well for a time, it was in spite of these decisions. There should be at least one spot in this pen to help identify and develop a potential future asset, outside of the Rule 5 guy. That's all.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Fien was 28 when we signed him, with 6 years of potential MLB control and a career minor league 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9. Burton was 30, but still had 2 years of team control, and a career 129 ERA+ in 170 MLB innings. Those were smart gambles of roster spots. A potential 4-man bullpen monster of Duensing-Stauffer-Boyer-Pelfrey, in 2015? Not so much.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    They did this last year. Nine guys saw first half 2014 bullpen action, and the only "stashed options guy" was Tonkin, for 12.1 innings (4% of the bullpen total). Did it help the team win? Did we wind up with additional assets? Did it answer any questions about the future?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    "Yet another"? This hasn't happened at the MLB bullpen recently for the Twins. Last year, Tonkin was the only guy to get a pen audition before August. Meanwhile, 41% of our relief innings went to "veterans" who were gone from the organization by December, returning zero value.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    So if Hicks doesn't make the team, and Arcia struggles and/or gets demoted, and Hunter is traded when Rosario and Buxton are promoted... what does that mean for the "mentorship" angle?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Veterans =/= best team You could have made this same post last spring, assuming that the Twins identified the "best team" in Kubel, Bartlett, Correia, Pelfrey, Burton, Duensing, Deduno, (Guerrier in AAA), etc., and still found room for youngsters like Arcia, Hicks, Pinto, Gibson, Escobar, etc. With younger bullpen arms just a phone call away in Rochester! Who barely saw any MLB action until the season was long lost in August... And I'm not against veterans -- Jared Burton in 2012 was a great add even though he turned 31 that year, because he offered: 1) short-term upside (career 129 ERA+) 2) multiple years of team control 3) and he only cost $750k. Even if Graham makes it, the Twins might still stock their 7 man opening day bullpen with 4 guys age 31 or older who meet virtually none of Burton's 3 criteria above (except Boyer's $750k salary if he makes the roster, and maybe Pelfrey's potential improved performance out of the pen if we'd ever actually get around to trying him there).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Stauffer actually intrigues me a little bit too. I have no real objection to any one of these guys in isolation -- it's the potential combination of multiple low-upside vets on expiring contracts (add Duensing to that group too) that doesn't appeal to me. Assuming Pelfrey/Boyer/Graham are the final 3, that's an average age in our opening day bullpen of 31. Rule 5'er Graham would be the only one under 31 this year. And the only one who could be freely exchanged with a AAA reliever is our best MLB RH reliever at the moment (Fien), so there is little flexibility. And Graham, Fien, and Perkins would be the only ones with multiple years of control left -- the other 4 (ages 31, 32, and a pair of 33 year olds) will be FA after this season.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    "This year is going to be different"? 2015: Stauffer, Boyer, (Pelfrey?) 2014: Burton, Guerrier (after a month in AAA), Deduno/Swarzak 2013: Roenicke, Wood 2012: Capps, Gray, Maloney 2011: Dusty Hughes, Slowey Hardly a group that's immune to crashing & burning (although some of them went for the slow fizzle). And it's not as if I am calling for full bullpen upheaval -- our top 3 relievers are pretty much set in stone, and have been since 2013. Stocking older mediocrity in the back end of the pen isn't really where you put your "most competitive foot forward" anyway.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    But that's making it May vs Graham. Wouldn't keeping them both in MLB be better for this team in the long run? What exactly does Stauffer, Boyer, or Pelfrey provide this team in the long run?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Having guys in AAA with options, and a bunch of mediocre veterans at the MLB level without options, is generally a bad thing. The only way to make a change is injury (likely temporary), complete collapse, or the Twins favorite, wait until the veteran's contract is up (or nearly up, like Correia, Willingham, Carroll, etc.). Stauffer's K rate intrigues me a little bit too, but I don't know that he really has much upside. He has the same problem as Boyer in that they are both older, have mediocre track records, and both can be FA again after the season. That is not a good recipe for returning long-term value, either in performance, below market contract, trade, etc.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, 20 days or fewer in the minors and he still gets credit for a whole year. That's what happened to him in 2014 (he only had about 10 days on optional assignment last May). So he would need at least 21 to safely avoid Super 2. Of course, if he is in the minors at all this season, it probably suggests a player not worth an extension...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not so much the money as the years. If he is any good, you aren't getting any of Arcia's free agent years without a 4+ year, ~$60 mil type commitment. But I agree, the stats don't presently suggest he will be very good, or even if he is, he might be so one-dimensional it could suppress his future value. The guy we should have been aggressive on, though, was Dozier last winter. Encouraging performance, defense/positional value to fall back on, two years away from arb... We could have a much better deal than just 4/20, like 5/30 plus team options.
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