Otto von Ballpark
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I suspect Prior's reason for dismissing the Twins was that the Twins were not going to offer an amateur a contract close to what he got from the Cubs. The article assumes the Twins ponied up the necessary dough. -
Article: We Have A New (Soccer?) Website!
Otto von Ballpark replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
So even soccer trumps the T-Wolves now? -
Since the original poster used xFIP, here are Twins bullpen xFIP ranks by month, out of 15 AL teams: April: 9th May: 12th June: 15th July: 8th August: 14th September: 15th
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The bullpen was a mildly frustrating part of this offseason. While I know good relievers can sneak up on you (like Guerrier, various failed starters, etc.), we've pretty much locked in most of our pen with known mediocrities. Feels like we're going to have to wait for the recent draftees or for some starting prospects to get a chance to fail before we might have another plus bullpen, like we had in Gardy's glory days.
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Is that really true? I think starting and relieving in the modern game is different enough that you can't really make that claim based on starting stats/effectiveness. If Slowey was a better starter than Wade Davis, is his ceiling as a late inning reliever higher? Reliever ceiling has to be pitcher-specific, based on a variety of factors. Pelfrey might have the right profile, although given he is now 31 years old, has been pretty worthless as a starter for 4 seasons now, and he still hasn't been tried in relief (and won't be immediately this spring, according to Molitor), suggests that maybe he doesn't have a good relief profile.
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No doubt those guys are candidates for improvement -- several couldn't get much worse! But the original poster was claiming "addition by subtraction" of AAAA arms when that's not really the case. We really only had 26 starts by "AAAA arms" last year (lumping Swarzak and Deduno in that group too). The rest of the staff, all returning except Correia, tallied 136 starts and a 4.97 ERA -- which by itself would have been worst team SP ERA in the league by a large margin last year. Those "AAAA guys" shifted our team SP ERA from 4.97 to 5.06, or in other words, barely at all. And while not all of these returning guys will get a lot of starts, Nolasco is pretty much a lock and the others seem to be next in line on the depth chart, so at this point they project to get more starts than actual new faces like Meyer.
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Yeah, the problem with listing the actual worst starters from 2014 -- Pelfrey, Milone, May, and Nolasco -- is that those same names are lined up to start again for us 2015. I am not sure if we can expect a dramatic improvement in that area.
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Albers was gone last year, and Pino was actually decent (as was Albers in 2013). Replacing those performances is not necessarily easy or a given.
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I don't think the quote matches your interpretation at all. That he focused this winter on defense does not mean he did not work on defense before. He simply may have reached a point in his career where he wanted to (or was instructed to) shift priorities, quite probably because of data and experiences that were new to him and his bosses in 2014. Happens in every job and role in life.
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- josmil pinto
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I like him, but for the record, Pinto hasn't hit HR at the low end of that rate (20 in 400 PA) since rookie league. He might get better, but he's been pretty consistent in the power department in his 5 full pro seasons. 15 seems more likely for him, at this point.
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A fair point. Arcia's power is already pretty darn good -- his ISO would have ranked 14th in MLB among qualifiers last season. I don't know if he needs walks -- Carlos Gomez doesn't -- but he could use a better average, and probably fewer K's to help him achieve that. (As long as it doesn't sap his power...) His K% would have ranked 4th among qualifiers last year, in the company of Dunn, the bad Upton, the bad Chris Davis, Chris Carter, etc. Not a lot of great hitters in that area. Meanwhile, around his present day walk rates, you've got Gomez among others.
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I think he might too, proportionally akin to Molitor's age 39 bounceback perhaps (and maybe more defensive than offensive).
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All 2014 Twins OF (includes Hicks, Kubel, Cola, everyone): 0.8 fWAR per 586 PA 2014 Torii: 0.3 fWAR in 586 PA And I didn't bring up WAR here, Chief did
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Really not sure where that list came from, Torii 2014 was bested in fWAR by Santana, Willingham, Arcia, and even Fuld. Even just by wRC+ (offense only), he's well behind Santana, tied with Willingham, and only nominally ahead of Arcia. Best case of Torii on the 2014 Twins, we dump Willingham before the season and save ourselves from 40 games of Kubel etc. taking Willingham's place while hurt, but then again we also quite possibly don't reluctantly claim Fuld.
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Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR. Heck, a quick check of B-Ref WAR shows that Willingham beat Hunter handily in half the PA, and Arcia edged Hunter too in fewer PA. Adding Hunter to the 2014 Twins would have been at best a lateral move (trading Willingham earlier), and possibly a negative move if it removed opportunities for Arcia, Santana, and Vargas. And for 2015, it is mostly a latetal move, maintaining many of the frustrating characteristics of our outfield the past two years.
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Like the starting pitching situation, OF defense doesn't hinge on a single decision at a single moment in time. Perhaps there was nothing better than Hunter in November 2014, but the OF defense had been a clear need for at least 2 years by that point.
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Willingham mention had 2 points: 1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center) 2. And having lots of those types has caused problems over the last few years too. With an uncertain situation in CF, it has been especially difficult to have corner guys unable to slide over to help (and in fact probably need the help of a plus CF). And it makes fielding a solid across the board defensive OF, even.just for an inning or two, virtually impossible because we can't roster that many glove caddies at once. Yet what was our #1 offseason priority? Signing exactly this type of player again. Agreed it was not necessarily easy to get a better guy for a similar cost, but evidence suggests we did not try too hard, and we probavly could have found a guy who was a better FIT for our current roster even if he was not a better overall player than Hunter.
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Are those new rules set down by Molitor? Otherwise, I am not all that confident that I can really detect the changes you are describing, at least not based on the minimal roster changes we made. Torii will be a familiar name and face that we fans associate with winning, but that is about the extent of it, I think.
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Back to the thread topic, I loved the 2000-2007 Twins, but that attitude/leadership/culture was built organically. I would not have been excited about the 2000 Twins bringing back Gary Gaetti for such a role, for example. Though I admit people I know are excited about Hunter's return, I do not think that excitement will last if he and the team do not beat projections this year.
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Outside of Clete, those guys got very few at-bats. And they never really comprised our whole outfield --we got similar or better production than Hunter from Willingham the past 3 years. Heck, even Doumit's 2012 was similar to Hunter's recent efforts. I would have liked to have seen an effort to get a better player (even just one who could cover CF) or at least one with more of a (playing) future in MN. Or compliments Arcia in skill set.
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Would the Twins have been lucky to have Willingham? Hunter's overall 2014 offensive contribution was basically the same as his, on a per-PA basis. Willingham 2014 was basically the same as Hunter 2014 at the plate and not-disasterous Hunter 2013 in the field, minus 40 games for injury. Was our one dimensional veteran outfielder missing 40 games to injury was a key problem for our 2014 season? Worth addressing in our first offseason move by adding a soon-to-be 40 year old with a history of good health?
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I wouldn't count it out either. But Willingham had comparable performance and worth when he was on the field last year too. I don't know that anyone was clamoring to replace his performance/role for 2015. I might rather have a guy who is only "worth" $6M in 2015, but has some upside/potential for on-field performance beyond 2015. Or at least offers a complimentary set of on-field skills to help our other players look better.
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Hunter seems to fare better by wRC+ than Rbat too. By Rbat per PA, among guys who played some OF in 2014 (okay, I threw out Adam Dunn ) and had 300+ PA, Hunter ranks roughly 26th (out of 61, although that it's artificially long with some utility guys like Escobar near the bottom). And he's behind our regular 2014 CF (Santana), LF (Willingham), and RF (Arcia).
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And Hunter's 113 wRC+ was equal to Willingham's last year, a guy who cleared waivers in August and retired at season's end. Willingham was admittedly less healthy but also 4 years younger. And even though Willingham's defensive numbers weren't that bad last year (DRS approximating Hunter's 2013), he still only projected at about a 2 WAR player over a full season. How would you have felt if the Twins brought back Willingham to start in an outfield corner?
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Hunter wasn't bad last year with the bat, but he was only 13th in the AL out of 27 qualified AL OF in wRC+: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d Lower the PA threshold to 300 and he was 20th: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=300&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d
