Otto von Ballpark

I think by 2006 and probably earlier, you can't simply add Prior to the Twins real-life playoff results and conclude he wouldn't have helped. The composition of the team would have likely been quite different, for better or worse. Rick Reed and Mark Redman (plus Matt Lawton) could have been affected within two months, not to mention the Joe Mays contract extension, Kenny Rogers in 2003, the Eric Milton trade which netted us Silva and Punto, and certainly the AJ trade which netted us Liriano and Nathan (and Boof). And those are just the players and moves directly affected by Prior -- more certainly would have been affected indirectly. For example, maybe without Nathan, we hang on to Guardado or Hawkins a few more years? If you can look ahead a little further, maybe without Liriano, we aren't so eager to trade Matt Garza (or even Johan Santana) after 2007? Really, 2002-2004 are probably the only years where we can safely make guesses. And in 2002, swapping Mays or Reed for Prior likely wins us the ALDS in one fewer game, and if it was Reed who was out, perhaps extends the ALCS back to the Metrodome for Game 6... In 2003, Prior takes the Game 1 assignment from Santana and pushes Lohse out of the playoff rotation, and perhaps delays Santana's injury that October? Or at least allows him more time to recover. Similarly, with Prior in 2004, pushing Silva out of the playoff rotation and letting Santana work on full rest could change things quite a bit too. While SP wasn't always our top weakness those years/series, we certainly could have benefitted with another top level starter! (Who wouldn't?) I wouldn't, however, posit that Prior would have stayed significantly more healthy with the Twins. The frequency and severity of his injuries almost certainly would not have been avoided with a few lower pitch count games. Not a knock on Mauer at all, but it certainly would have been interesting to see Prior on the 2001-2004 teams. Perhaps even more interesting would have been the 2001 signal that the Twins were willing to spend some money to be the best. Maybe they go over-slot for future draft picks, or pony up for FA Jim Thome or international amateurs, etc. Maybe they even avoid the contraction mess, hire Molitor to manage instead of Gardy, get their new stadium a couple years earlier, etc. Lots of implications! Of course, in this bizarro universe, there is almost certainly a 2015 article asking "What if the Twins drafted Mauer instead of Prior?" Which likely concludes that the 2005-2014 teams would have been better off had they done so.

On the other hand, we don't get to fleece the Giants in the AJ trade. Could change the timing/parameters of the Milton deal too.

The Twins promoted Adam Johnson on a similar timeline as the Cubs did Prior. Also note that the author suggest with Prior we don't sign Kenny Rogers. That alone suggests Santana's rotation move would not have been affected much by the addition of Prior. (And I made a similar suggestion about Rick Reed.)

Prior draft in 2001 also suggests that maybe we don't trade for Rick Reed shortly thereafter.

You need an era adjustment, my friend. Viola was notably above league K/9 in 1987, versus Slowey who was generally average or below (slightly above average in his abbreviated 2009). Plus peak Kevin Slowey might have been useful in the playoffs had he ever been healthy for them. Probably more effective than, say, low-K Carlos Silva.

I suspect Prior's reason for dismissing the Twins was that the Twins were not going to offer an amateur a contract close to what he got from the Cubs. The article assumes the Twins ponied up the necessary dough.

So even soccer trumps the T-Wolves now?

Since the original poster used xFIP, here are Twins bullpen xFIP ranks by month, out of 15 AL teams: April: 9th May: 12th June: 15th July: 8th August: 14th September: 15th

The bullpen was a mildly frustrating part of this offseason. While I know good relievers can sneak up on you (like Guerrier, various failed starters, etc.), we've pretty much locked in most of our pen with known mediocrities. Feels like we're going to have to wait for the recent draftees or for some starting prospects to get a chance to fail before we might have another plus bullpen, like we had in Gardy's glory days.

Is that really true? I think starting and relieving in the modern game is different enough that you can't really make that claim based on starting stats/effectiveness. If Slowey was a better starter than Wade Davis, is his ceiling as a late inning reliever higher? Reliever ceiling has to be pitcher-specific, based on a variety of factors. Pelfrey might have the right profile, although given he is now 31 years old, has been pretty worthless as a starter for 4 seasons now, and he still hasn't been tried in relief (and won't be immediately this spring, according to Molitor), suggests that maybe he doesn't have a good relief profile.

No doubt those guys are candidates for improvement -- several couldn't get much worse! But the original poster was claiming "addition by subtraction" of AAAA arms when that's not really the case. We really only had 26 starts by "AAAA arms" last year (lumping Swarzak and Deduno in that group too). The rest of the staff, all returning except Correia, tallied 136 starts and a 4.97 ERA -- which by itself would have been worst team SP ERA in the league by a large margin last year. Those "AAAA guys" shifted our team SP ERA from 4.97 to 5.06, or in other words, barely at all. And while not all of these returning guys will get a lot of starts, Nolasco is pretty much a lock and the others seem to be next in line on the depth chart, so at this point they project to get more starts than actual new faces like Meyer.

Yeah, the problem with listing the actual worst starters from 2014 -- Pelfrey, Milone, May, and Nolasco -- is that those same names are lined up to start again for us 2015. I am not sure if we can expect a dramatic improvement in that area.

Albers was gone last year, and Pino was actually decent (as was Albers in 2013). Replacing those performances is not necessarily easy or a given.

I don't think the quote matches your interpretation at all. That he focused this winter on defense does not mean he did not work on defense before. He simply may have reached a point in his career where he wanted to (or was instructed to) shift priorities, quite probably because of data and experiences that were new to him and his bosses in 2014. Happens in every job and role in life.

I like him, but for the record, Pinto hasn't hit HR at the low end of that rate (20 in 400 PA) since rookie league. He might get better, but he's been pretty consistent in the power department in his 5 full pro seasons. 15 seems more likely for him, at this point.

A fair point. Arcia's power is already pretty darn good -- his ISO would have ranked 14th in MLB among qualifiers last season. I don't know if he needs walks -- Carlos Gomez doesn't -- but he could use a better average, and probably fewer K's to help him achieve that. (As long as it doesn't sap his power...) His K% would have ranked 4th among qualifiers last year, in the company of Dunn, the bad Upton, the bad Chris Davis, Chris Carter, etc. Not a lot of great hitters in that area. Meanwhile, around his present day walk rates, you've got Gomez among others.

I think he might too, proportionally akin to Molitor's age 39 bounceback perhaps (and maybe more defensive than offensive).

All 2014 Twins OF (includes Hicks, Kubel, Cola, everyone): 0.8 fWAR per 586 PA 2014 Torii: 0.3 fWAR in 586 PA And I didn't bring up WAR here, Chief did

Really not sure where that list came from, Torii 2014 was bested in fWAR by Santana, Willingham, Arcia, and even Fuld. Even just by wRC+ (offense only), he's well behind Santana, tied with Willingham, and only nominally ahead of Arcia. Best case of Torii on the 2014 Twins, we dump Willingham before the season and save ourselves from 40 games of Kubel etc. taking Willingham's place while hurt, but then again we also quite possibly don't reluctantly claim Fuld.

Chief, it wasn't my list, but I seriously question its accuracy if it did not have Danny Santana way ahead of Torii Hunter for 2014 WAR. Heck, a quick check of B-Ref WAR shows that Willingham beat Hunter handily in half the PA, and Arcia edged Hunter too in fewer PA. Adding Hunter to the 2014 Twins would have been at best a lateral move (trading Willingham earlier), and possibly a negative move if it removed opportunities for Arcia, Santana, and Vargas. And for 2015, it is mostly a latetal move, maintaining many of the frustrating characteristics of our outfield the past two years.

Like the starting pitching situation, OF defense doesn't hinge on a single decision at a single moment in time. Perhaps there was nothing better than Hunter in November 2014, but the OF defense had been a clear need for at least 2 years by that point.

Willingham mention had 2 points: 1. In response to those who said we could have benefitted from a player like Hunter the last few years -- not really true, we already had one if not two with Arcia (above average bat, below average glove, can't play center) 2. And having lots of those types has caused problems over the last few years too. With an uncertain situation in CF, it has been especially difficult to have corner guys unable to slide over to help (and in fact probably need the help of a plus CF). And it makes fielding a solid across the board defensive OF, even.just for an inning or two, virtually impossible because we can't roster that many glove caddies at once. Yet what was our #1 offseason priority? Signing exactly this type of player again. Agreed it was not necessarily easy to get a better guy for a similar cost, but evidence suggests we did not try too hard, and we probavly could have found a guy who was a better FIT for our current roster even if he was not a better overall player than Hunter.

Are those new rules set down by Molitor? Otherwise, I am not all that confident that I can really detect the changes you are describing, at least not based on the minimal roster changes we made. Torii will be a familiar name and face that we fans associate with winning, but that is about the extent of it, I think.

Back to the thread topic, I loved the 2000-2007 Twins, but that attitude/leadership/culture was built organically. I would not have been excited about the 2000 Twins bringing back Gary Gaetti for such a role, for example. Though I admit people I know are excited about Hunter's return, I do not think that excitement will last if he and the team do not beat projections this year.

Outside of Clete, those guys got very few at-bats. And they never really comprised our whole outfield --we got similar or better production than Hunter from Willingham the past 3 years. Heck, even Doumit's 2012 was similar to Hunter's recent efforts. I would have liked to have seen an effort to get a better player (even just one who could cover CF) or at least one with more of a (playing) future in MN. Or compliments Arcia in skill set.