Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Meyer was actually more seriously injured (and further away) as of last winter. And May was barely on the radar at that point. The aggregate 2014 performances of Hughes and Nolasco were probably close to projections for them. Not an argument against signing Santana now, mind you, just an argument that signing him last winter would have been better. -
Nice article. I don't know if this signing is a statement either, other than "we've really screwed up the starting staff the past few years, huh?" (Actually maybe that was last offseason's statement -- this offseason's might be "we really, REALLY screwed up.")
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I agree that Santana is an OK signing, but this suggests TR inexplicably learned this lesson a few years late? Still feels like is a bit of a catch-up signing, especially egregious because our SP shortage has been so acute the last 3 years.
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I know they low-balled him last year -- but why? Because we felt the need to guarantee Pelfrey two years earlier in the offseason? Because we felt the need to guarantee Correia two years the previous offseason? (Although we still had a rotation spot up for grabs in both 2013 and 2014 even with those two penciled in.) We may be a year closer to contention this year, but there is no question we could have benefitted from Santana last year (and even more so the year prior). I won't harp on it too much, but I thought it was interesting because Santana is a guy who has basically been on the market three straight offseasons, and the Twins went from little apparent interest to low-ball offer to market rate offer in those three years. Ultimately reactive rather than proactive?
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League/park factors and sample size, my friend. Milone has an career ERA- of 103 (100 is average, lower is better). Not bad, but in only 490 IP and trending worse every year of his career (94 - 107 - 112 the past three years). Santana is 101 in almost 4 times the innings. Hughes is 104 with double the innings and trending better. If you want to get into peripherals and FIP-, Milone is easily the worst of the bunch at 108 and has gotten significantly worse in this mark every year (all the way to 126 last year, which would equate to about Kevin Correia's near 5.00 ERA last year). Now, as I've said before, I don't advocate cutting Milone or anything drastic, I am just not going to hold a rotation spot open for him at this point.
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Just out of curiosity: Jeff Samardzija's 3 full season averages: 203 IP, 2.2 rWAR, 3.2 fWAR David Robertson's 5 full seasons averages: 64 IP, 2.0 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR Jon Lester season averages: 200 IP, 4.1 rWAR, 4.4 fWAR
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To answer my own question, "why didn't we offer this to Santana last winter?" Unfortunately, we were boxed in by fairly inexplicable 2 year deals for Correia and Pelfrey at the time. Thankfully injury has helped us move on from the latter. For that matter, why weren't we in on Santana two years ago, after 2012? We desperately needed starting pitching by that point, and Santana was pretty much being given away by the Angels, yet I don't recall hearing us mentioned in trade rumors at the time. Could have helped a lot the last two years, and also could have gotten this contract started a year earlier too.
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Brock, in this case, the individual projections were only used to derive a team forecast.
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I don't know about that. Nolasco was basically traded for peanuts in 2013, in the midst of the second-best season of his career, with no significant commitment and obviously before his 2014 happened (actually, the Marlins even sent along some of their international bonus pool allotment along with Nolasco in that trade).
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In addition to what James said above, with Graham taking the one open spot, the Twins will need to remove someone from the 40-man to add Ervin Santana.
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Who did the photoshop on that picture?
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Yeah. 55 ERA+. And that didn't even include Pelfrey, who I lumped in with Nolasco to bump his innings up. Heck, you could replace that group with Nolasco's 2014 ERA or Pelfrey's 2013 ERA and cut 30+ earned runs.
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To be fair, they already waited a few years. This hopefully signals they aren't waiting much *more* for it to produce.
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Career average Santana earned run prevention, replacing Correia + Pino innings (190), would save 21 earned runs. Career average Nolasco earned run prevention, replacing Nolasco + Pelfrey innings (183), would save 28 earned runs. Hughes is a little bit trickier to estimate. His career average earned run prevention as a starter would be add roughly 15 runs over his 2014 performance. That would be -35 earned runs allowed for those spots. Leaving Gibson alone, that still leaves 33 starts which totaled a combined 152 IP and 122 earned runs in 2014, holy cow, those guys were bad! I think that's where you can hopefully see the most improvement, just don't know who will get the nod to do it yet.
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For those curious, if you remove the pitchers batting he faced last year, Santana would have roughly a 7.8 K/9 and 20.6 K%, both his highest season marks since 2008. Also, although his ERA+ was 127 and 92 the past two seasons, I estimate his FIP adjusted for league and park would have been about 105 and 108, respectively, in ERA+ terms.
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Santana season averages: 188 IP, 1.7 rWAR, 2.2 fWAR In the 6 seasons since his peak performance in 2008, he is averaging 196 IP, 1.4 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR. Nolasco season averages, pre-2014: 188 IP, 1.5 rWAR, 2.9 fWAR
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As for Santana, did we offer this last year? Our March offer to him was reportedly only 3/33.
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Minor nit: the Twins forfeit their second round pick (currently #44 overall), but it doesn't directly go to the Braves. The Braves get a pick in a supplemental round between the first and second rounds, somewhere around #30 accounting for lost picks in the first round. It would be a bigger distinction for teams that don't have protected (top 10) first round picks. For example, the Mets forfeited their first rounder (#15 overall) to sign Cuddyer, but the pick gained by Colorado will actually be closer to #30. We still have a special "competitive balance" pick after the second round, though -- roughly #71 overall. Very cool page tracking those things here: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2015/order.jsp
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I think the minor league Rule 5 guys are for keeps, and can be assigned anywhere. Brian Buscher was a minor league Rule 5 guy that we assigned to AA to start.
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You might be seeing something like this going on in Miami right now. Just read this: "The Marlins have now traded 4 of their top 7 prospects (and their #15, and Chris Hatcher) for a year of Mat Latos, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart, and Aaron Crow."
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I think so. I haven't heard any others.
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Can Graham dial it up out of the bullpen? He was kind of a modest K, control guy before his injury.
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In the minor league phase, Twins add Greg Peavey from the Mets system: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peavey001gre Twins also Matt Tomshaw in the minor league phase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tomsha000mat
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Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Miami selects Matt Tomshaw from the Twins in the minor league phase: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tomsha000mat -
Article: Rule 5 Draft: What To Expect?
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
AAA phase We got Greg Peavey from the Mets http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peavey001gre 1. Arizona Diamondbacks - Tim Crabbe, CIN 2. Colorado Rockies - Kyle Simon, PHI 3. Texas Rangers - Roderick Shoulders, CHC 4. Houston Astros - Luis Flores, CHC
