Otto von Ballpark

Not sure if this is fair. That's using Fangraphs projections, which have been pretty wrong on Cleveland so far. Weighting more to "season to date stats" gives us a 9.1% chance.

I like the word "Realmutoful" but I don't think this is true. Impact players are traded for quality prospects, not quantity.

Some, I am sure. Others probably realized this wasn't their year in the AL East, and they can call Vlad Jr up after 2 weeks next season and get the extra year of control (which definitely does matter for superstars). Personally, I think it would have been cool to call him up as a teenager, but at least we have Juan Soto this year. Vlad Jr can be the story next year, even though he turns 20 in March...

Well, the Twins could be sellers, and looking long-term. The Yankees would be buyers, thinking short-term. But if we're not true "sellers", and we're thinking about contending in 2019 (to say nothing of 2018 yet) -- if the Yankees don't like either Gray or Sheffield in the short term, perhaps we shouldn't either. Now, I don't mean to apply this to all trades, or you'd never get anything done. But it struck me as curious, because of the position/level/contention overlap. It would almost be like the MLB equivalent of the rare "prospect-for-prospect" trade.

That might be more of a statement about Dozier and the 2B market than about Pressly...

Does he? Per Fangraphs, he only has 8 "shutdowns" vs 11 "meltdowns" this year. His average game-entering leverage index is only 1.13 too, which is only 6th on the staff (counting Reed and Busenitz). I mean, I could see why you'd ask for more for Pressly than some others. But that doesn't mean teams are going to pay it. FWIW, both Soria and Oh are controllable for 2019 too (team options), so their values might not be that far from Pressly's.

That's fair. I'd listen too... but also worry.

No problem! I just got it from B-Ref's league starting pitching page, see the column "100-119": https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2018-starter-pitching.shtml It has definitely been falling the last couple years. 2013: 46% 2014: 45% 2015: 42% 2016: 38% 2017: 34% 2018: 30% Although part of this is also the new "opener" / "bullpenning" strategy -- relievers starting games are guaranteed to fall short of 100 pitches. Tampa Bay, for example is down to 21% from last year's 47% -- although even putting them at last year's rate would only bump the 2018 overall league rate up to 31.5%. Not sure if any other team is doing it nearly as much as Tampa. Also of note: Gibson's start last night was just the fifth 120+ pitch start in the entire AL this season. The NL also has 5 such starts in 2018. (2017, the AL also had 5, the NL had 13.)

Like I said in another thread, wouldn't you worry about why the Yankees would be willing to give these guys up, for a player at the same position?

Yup. And with the recent market, you might have a fair shot at Gibson accepting the QO and getting him back on that one-year deal for 2020. (But on the flip side, if the market keeps his deal below $50 mil, the draft pick if he signs elsewhere would probably only be a ~75th pick rather than ~35th.)

FYI, this comes across as pretty rude. I did "half the work"? Did you do any? % of starts at 100-119 pitches: 2008 AL 43%, Blackburn 15% 2009 AL 45%, Blackburn 36% 2010 AL 51%, Blackburn 23% 2011 AL 49%, Blackburn 31% 2012 AL 44%, Blackburn 16% But you may have a bright future in politics.

In 2008, Blackburn only reached 100 pitches 5 out of 33 starts, none more than 108. Only one looks particularly taxing -- 102 pitches for 4.2 innings against the Yankees. In 2009, it was 12 out of 33, but it's not like he was laboring in them -- he never topped 111 pitches that year, he threw at least 6 innings in all of his 100 pitch starts, and he threw at least 7 innings in 8 of those 12 too. (Twice he went the distance with 107 and 109 pitches.) Spread out as well -- no more than 2 in any single month. 2010 was when Blackburn first started struggling -- 5.42 ERA -- but he was hardly overworked. 6 starts out of 26 with 100+ pitches, none greater than 110, and all of those pitching into at least the 7th inning. 2011, the 127 pitch complete game was the outlier. No others greater than 110. 9 out of 26 starts at 100+. He did have 4 of them in May, but none appeared too taxing (pitching into the 7th twice, the 8th once, and the complete game). Very difficult to pin his downfall on overuse.

Oh yeah, forgot about Mejia. I guess they might want to push Berrios back a day to face Cleveland. By the same token, it looks like we will miss Kluber and Clevinger, although we'll probably get Bauer and Carrasco (and Bieber?).

I know it seems unlikely that the Yankees would offer Sheffield for Gibson at this point, but if they did -- should we be worried about Sheffield? He's not some faraway asset, he's right on the doorstep of MLB. Would be a little concerning that the Yankees wouldn't just promote him themselves, you know? They haven't been shy about being aggressive with prospects before -- like Severino and Loaisiga from their current staff.

I was no fan of that thread, but explanation != apology

Why is the starting pitcher still TBA for Sunday? It's Berrios, right?

Also Mientkiewicz!

Sounds like Happ to the Yankees, which probably means no Gibson for them unless they want to get creative and dump Sonny Gray.

I referenced "total price", not AAV. I think there's a very real chance that Escobar and perhaps even Dozier are available for 2 or even 3 years around $20 mil total. A QO passes that up. I guess not offering the QO increases the risk of potentially losing the player, but neither guy seems irreplaceable. There's quite a few infielders on the market this winter, and likely only Machado commanding big bucks.

What? No love for Belisle? He'd save your life if he had the chance (and if saving your life somehow involved stranding inherited runners).

Well, 2020 is 2 years away...

Seems unlikely, for any of the Twins trade assets. I did some research, and if one believed Gibson's next year-plus performance would be similar to his last calendar year performance, you could perhaps justify Sheffield. But Gibson is no sure thing, and Sheffield is on the doorstep of MLB and could just as well be promoted himself. Unless the Yankees are just really pessimistic about Sheffield, I'd guess they acquire whatever their lower / further away prospects can get them.

In some contexts, sure. In this context? A qualifying offer likely precludes the possibility of getting multiple years for a similar total price, which is a very real possibility judging by the recent market. You'd also be making it that much more difficult to trade the players in 2019, should the need arise. It definitely seems much riskier to offer the QO than to not.

Looking it up, I see Walker reached 9.1% BB rate in AA, and it improved every year up to that point. Like Rooker, it also improved during the course of his AA season (11.2% from July onwards that year, although the rest of his production cratered). I think that's when I heard the theory around here, that his increase in walks / decent walk rate offset some of the strikeouts. And maybe it did, but not enough to matter. I admitted Walker was more extreme, and I only brought him up as a general example off the top of my head. You can find others who would be more "apples to apples" for Rooker's AA rates pretty easily. Rooker is at 8.2% BB rate, 28.7% K rate, and a 133 wRC+ this season. Since June 1st, 11.1% BB and 28.2% K. Checking out other age 23 AA players for similar rates from 2015: Drew Robinson, 16% BB, 26.8% K, 127 wRC+ Will Swanner, 10.8% BB%, 30.8% K, 132 wRC+ Never heard of these guys. From 2016: Matt Chapman, 11.7% BB, 29.2% K, 141 wRC+ J.D. Davis, 8.3% BB, 26.5% K, 134 wRC+ Bradley Zimmer, 13.8% BB, 28.3% K, 136 wRC+ All of these guys need gloves to have much MLB value (and Chapman's got the most value because he dropped his K rate to 23.2% and paired it with a brilliant glove, per metrics). Drop it to age 22, and we add Derek Fisher, Ryan O'Hearn, and Paul DeJong from 2016. Again, 2 guys that probably need their gloves to have good MLB value, and O'Hearn whose bat cratered at AAA but it probably only cost him a "quad-A" career. Jumping back to 2014, we get Michael A. Taylor, maybe Kyle Kubitza, Stetson Allie, and Rymer Liriano if you reach down to 24-25% K rates. I'm not trying to "complain", he's doing great for his team, but that doesn't mean a whole lot about his future for the Twins, which is the big criteria for promotion right now (and how this whole discussion got started).

So what's the theory -- that sometimes Belisle just forgets to "pitch strategically"? Or doesn't always have the stuff to execute it? Because we sure haven't trusted him to do this very often (if at all) so far in 2018.