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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I've heard Perkins speak favorably of bullpen roles in interviews. They could be what saved his career. Of course, like most relievers, I am pretty sure he wouldn't object to a slightly modified role with a good rationale behind it (i.e. pitching in more tie games or even trailing by a run, pitching an extra inning occasionally, perhaps even ceding some saves if we develop a shutdown RHP, etc.).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I too don't know quite how MLB hitters prepare, but I doubt they cram much pitcher-specific preparation in the innings immediately prior. They don't know whether they are going to bat in the 7th, 8th, or 9th, or all of the above, until very late in the process. And they're never completely blindsided by a new pitcher -- they know who's on the roster, they see them warming up, and unless they happen to be the leadoff batter, they even see (and likely speak to) teammates who bat against him before taking their own turn. This actually reminds me of suggestions for hitters to change their approach by opponent/situation. To be a competent MLB hitter against 90+ MPH pitches, I think you've almost got to be a machine. (Think of their between-pitch rituals.) I would guess most guys who try to vary their approach, or who would get rattled by a seeing a different pitcher in the 8th than they were expecting, probably don't make it to MLB or don't last long. If I were a relief pitcher, and my manager called on me to pitch the 8th inning to try catching an opponent off-guard, I would think that manager was pretty nutso. (Now, pitch me in the 8th for match ups, or have me do the 8th AND 9th to extend the pen, and I'm all ears.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    OK, back on topic... Are you suggesting that closer effectiveness diminishes more than that of set-up men? I don't think that's clear at all. If you've seen a study or something to that effect, I would be interested, but I think any general effect one might suspect in that regard would be drowned out by much larger effects (different pitch repertoire, platoon splits, even marginal differences in pitcher quality, etc.). I think the key distinction, in terms of hitter preparation (and adjustment), is simply between starters and relievers. Among relievers, I doubt there is a constant effect.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Here is the Sickels link -- it's just his top 20 Twins prospect list, so you may have seen it already: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/11/8/7157261/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2015-sickels Are you referring to the following Kiley McDaniel piece? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-minnesota-twins/ I didn't mean to nitpick, but it's just my natural reaction when I see a list of low minors guys. The Twins could be sitting pretty in 2017-2018 if a number of them pan out, although by that point our bullpen may be completely turned over -- not sure if we'd really have a surplus to do anything unorthodox with.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Part of the problem is that most teams have multiple relievers of roughly equal quality. Deploying them in a different order, or getting a few more outs from one at the expense of another, really doesn't make that big of a difference. Particularly over the large sample of games that is the regular season. That said, I hate saving closers for save situations -- I'd clearly do away with that. I'd aim for 70-80 IP from each of my top relievers, and I'd try to deploy them in the late innings of virtually every close game (even tied and trailing) and avoid their mop-up appearances. Perhaps, depending on match-ups, I'd even make two or even three inning appearances more common, with the understanding that I couldn't use that pitcher the next day, but it could help avoid lesser relievers appearing in potential innings 10-12 or so.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Name - age, highest level (Sickels grade) Burdi - almost 22, A+ (B-) Chargois - age 24, Rk © Melotakis - age 23, AA (C+) Zack Jones - age 24, A+ © Reed - age 22, A (C+) Landa - age 20, A (NR) Romero - age 20, A (NR) Cederoth - age 22, Rk (C+) Boozer - age 22, Rk (NR) Meyer - age 25, AAA (B+) Irby - age 22, Rk (NR) Poulson - almost 25, Rk (NR) Johnson - age 26, AA (NR) Tyler Jones - age 25, A+ © Van Steensel - almost 24, A+ (NR) Peterson - age 23, A+ © Williams - age 24, A+ (NR) The only guy with AAA experience (Meyer) has yet to make a professional relief appearance. Only two AA guys on the list, Melotakis and Johnson, neither of whom dominated their leagues much last year in terms of H/9 or run prevention, despite nice K rates (and Johnson is pretty old already!). Right now, your evaluation of these guys is relying an awful lot on rookie league or A-ball stats of college pitchers (and perhaps too much on inconsistent or "peak" radar gun readings as well). No doubt, it's a better system than a few years ago, it's nice to have multiple interesting names coming out of recent drafts, and I too am excited about Burdi, as evidence suggests he could be on the fast track; otherwise, talk of forming a dominant MLB bullpen from this group is at least a year too early (although I will gladly give you "early bandwagon" credit if you turn out to be right. )
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I too think this article is a bit premature, but to be fair, Slama wasn't really a hard thrower -- he racked up minor league strikeouts by other means. Billy Bullock might be a better cautionary tale from recent Twins memory. Or Jim Hoey, Lester Oliveros, Stephen Pryor, etc. Some of the current guys may be better bets, but I'm not going to expect an embarrassment of riches in this department until we see a few of these guys healthy and still dominating above A-ball.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Stauffer actually only faced a pitcher 2 times in his 3 starts last season, thanks to some very early exits and a pinch hitter. He faced pitchers in 9 PA while in relief. He faced even more pitchers batting in 2013 (16 PA) when he was used exclusively in relief. Good to be mindful of, but I would guess the effect to be pretty minimal, especially for a low-leverage reliever.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This is the part that worries me. Even if he doesn't make the rotation out of the gate, presumably he will receive long looks in spring training over better long-term starting options. And does this assurance mean that as soon as another starter is injured or falters, the Twins will be obligated to use Stauffer as the first replacement? The temptation will be strong to do so, as he will already be on the roster and the AAA rotation may not be lined up properly at that moment. Also, this suggests we didn't target Stauffer as a potential bargain dominant bullpen arm.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I read that at Baseball America too, but it seemed weird. Isn't a post-draft, pre-signing physical (including an MRI for pitchers) pretty much standard? Was it not back in 2003?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Parker, just a word of caution that FIP is not park or league adjusted. FIP- (lower is better, 100 is average) at Fangraphs is what you want to use here. FIP- 2013-2014: Swarzak 90 Stauffer 94 Burton 100 So even in terms of FIP, Stauffer basically split the difference between Swarzak and Burton the past two seasons.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    What's weird is that many of us thought the same thing last offseason -- why would he lock himself into a 3 year deal when his value was so low? I rationalized it by saying he wanted some decent cash and a shot to hit the market again at age 30, but this seems to throw that out the window. It certainly seems as if Hughes bucks the conventional wisdom around MLB contracts.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    After we arguably missed out on some chances to do it in the 2000's (Mauer, Santana, Hunter were all mostly arb-buyout deals -- could the Twins have been more aggressive with those first big contracts?).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Nitpick: Santana just turned 32, Hughes will be 33 years and 3-4 months at the end of the 2019 season. Still, the point remains: Santana's deal extends 3 years beyond that age.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Hughes isn't at a table to collect more money for another two years, and the last time he was at such a table he got less than what many here predicted. I'd say it's a good deal for both sides. The qualifying offer is an interesting point -- a contract through age-33 might also be ideal for that factor. He will be old enough at that point to dissuade many teams from offering a 4-5 year deal, but young enough where he could easily be worth 1/16 to a contending team with an open rotation spot. (Assuming the qualifying offer system doesn't change too much between now and then.)
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed, that's why I said "close to ideal" -- and for Hughes, if he had been born a week later, this contract would only run through his age-32 season.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    John, think about it this way: in 2008, the Twins did basically the same thing for Joe Nathan (although Nathan only had 1 year remaining on his current deal) -- a 3/42 extension. That was admittedly a sketchy decision, but: change it from a closer to a starter, subtract 3-4 years of age, and keep the absolute dollars the same despite 7 years of baseball inflation? That's a solid deal I think, a good risk to take.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Age factors? He'll turn 33 midway through the last year of the contract. Ervin Santana is signed for 3 years beyond that point, Nolasco for 2. Locking up a guy through his age 33 season might be close to ideal -- while people often talk about "the wrong side of 30", letting guys go at age 30-31 is probably giving up on them a little too early (barring major injury, which can really happen at any age), assuming your goal is to field a competitive team.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought it was an OK flip too, but Milone might have been damaged goods and it doesn't look like we will particularly need him next year. And even if you make that flip, given the adventures of 2013-2014 you'd think a CF acquisition would be a priority going into the offseason, yet here we are...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    What's wrong with Pinto as backup DH? DH options with OPS+ figures around 90 aren't really good DH options.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know -- they've cleared a lot of back-end bullpen types lately, and they usually keep one or more of those guys around even in competitive seasons. Who really fits that role on the current 40-man? Darnell is the primary one I see -- not sure about their plans for him. A lot of the other 40-man options are either short relievers or may have too much value as starters to waste in that role (Milone, May, Meyer).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Bullock was our #8 prospect at the time according to Sickels, B- grade but pretty good, right around Hendriks, Arcia, Kepler in his list. "Could be a huge bullpen force if the command sharpens up a bit more." Same grade as Burdi in his current list. Both were 2nd round relievers with big strikeout numbers too. Bullock was a year older/further along -- imagine if Burdi made it up to AA this year with 14 K/9 and 5 BB/9 rates, that's where Bullock was. Burdi can't be traded until June, though (not that we would trade him). Diamond may have been less well-regarded by the Braves at the time too -- amateur free agent from Canada, and he had already spent 2 full healthy seasons at AA/AAA. Of course, if the Braves don't like Graham's recovery prognosis, it might not take much to get him.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Ryan Pressly hadn't pitched above AA, and had marginally more bullpen appearances than Graham at the time of his selection (about 1.5 more months worth). Pressly was also a year younger and less effective/regarded during his amateur and minor league careers. Plus, there will be innings to soak up at the back end of the bullpen, with Swarzak, Deduno, various AAA starters, etc. all gone. I think Graham's health and ongoing recovery are going to be the bigger factors than his minor league level or bullpen experience.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    oWAR includes the positional adjustment, which probably isn't appropriate here. Rbat would be what you want (or wRC+, or even OPS+). Although I agree Rfield is probably a worthy consideration here too, as bad as Dunn was in that regard even in limited play (and as poor as Abreu was in that mark last year).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    In this case, though, the shorthand felt so obvious. It seemed pretty clear that the poster was NOT hiding/ignoring earlier WAR totals, just using the 2014 ones because they were pretty representative of earlier ones (if you have any familiarity with Dunn, and Twins fans should, he's been responsible for great gusts of wind across our state the past few years ).
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