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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I am not quite so confident that a July trade is a condition here. We did see it with Kendrys Morales, and some of the expiring contract vets recently, but Hunter could still be seen as one of "our guys" and I am not sure they ever plan to deal those types. Remember the dragged out process that was the Morneau trade? For that matter, it's not at all clear there will be a great trade market for Hunter -- 40 year old corner OF, questionable defense, solid slightly above average bat, making ~$2 mil a month -- that's not necessarily an easy sell.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, "better than Willingham, Colabello & Arcia" is not the threshold we should be using. That would be like aiming to improve the starting staff last year and just looking for someone "better than PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez". And there are still other short-term options, Rios and Rasmus being the most prominent on the FA market.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Doogie sure beat Berardino on this one (and most of us).
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    That narrative doesn't really fit with Span's career path. He looked pretty marginal for 5 years here with Hunter.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    is this true? Those deals last winter were on paper nonguaranteed fliers, although the fact that they were effectively guaranteed otherwise indeed made them much worse. But they still involved legitimately small amounts of money and only came later in FA after we already signed several pitchers.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Did we? I remember the main defense of the Doogie rumor was the assumption that we were lowballing him for a platoon or backup role. I remember some criticism of Doogie and Twitter in general for advancing such a misleading rumor, that the defensively challenged Twins would actually pursue Hunter as a top priority. I know it wasn't you who posted things like that, but those opinions explain why many of us here are flabbergasted by this move.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Missing isn't the same as mentorship, I would say.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    What good will I had from the coaching hires is evaporating with this move... seriously, it goes against every logical need for this team right now. I guess I'll wait and hope the spotted something that means his defense really wasn't that bad the last few years... but then again, I waited and hoped that they saw some upside in Nolasco when they rushed out to sign him last winter too.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Didn't Torii call out Mauer for not playing hurt back in the day? And isn't that the same argument that gets shouted down by the more level-headed commenters here? Do we really want that kind of a voice back in the clubhouse?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Ask Buxton? Is it a smart strategy to stock the major league roster with the minor leaguers' cool older brothers? Players making personnel decisions sounds about as smart as managers making personnel decisions, which we've seen at various times in recent Twins history. How well has that guaranteed instant Hunter mentorship factor worked before? Mike Trout, right? Austin Jackson's performance got worse in Detroit after Hunter arrived. For all his mentorship talk, Span was a pretty marginal prospect for about 5 years while getting "mentored" by Hunter in spring trainings, and only became a legit hitting prospect immediately AFTER Hunter left Minnesota (and after he got Lasik eye surgery, IIRC). No doubt the guy has kept himself in pretty good physical shape, and that's nothing to shrug at, but I think this mentorship thing is getting WAY overblown.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    If the Twins are shifting Arcia for him, I don't know if they are really just looking for a 3 month rental. And a guy signing a 1 year $10.5 mil deal doesn't suggest great trade bait a few months later when he turns 40. Plus, leadership and professionalism -- this is the same Torii Hunter that threw a punch that missed Justin Morneau and hit Nick Punto, right? Or has Hunter grown up a lot since he was... 30?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Okay, there's the complete overreaction Seth was talking about.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    The last time I remember hearing about our need for a RH outfield bat, it was to replace Hunter, and we traded for Delmon Young... obviously this is nowhere near as bad as that move, but that does not make this is a good move.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, if "not the end of the world" is your endorsement of our first big player move of the offseason... then it's probably not a good move. It's OK to say that, and I am not sure why that counts as a "complete overreaction". $10.5 mil is the 2nd largest outside FA AAV the Twins have ever given out.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Smoltz? Kaat pitched 5 seasons primarily out of the pen with a 97 ERA+. Pretty close to what Swarzak did the last 4 years. Neat for an old guy, but not a relief ace even in his own era. If you support Tommy John, though, Kaat is not a bad choice -- but they'd definitely have to both go in
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Buehrle is a closer comp, although even he doubles Kaat's WAA through the same age. Kaat was a good pitcher, but even in the context of the Twins he doesn't stand out as a great (i.e. better than Radke). He generally didn't seem like an "ace" just part of a solid staff with Pascual, Grant, Perry, Boswell, Chance, etc. Not sure of the background, but in 1969 and 1970, he spent most of the stretch run pitching out of the bullpen, did not appear in the 1969 playoffs, and was only tenuously part of the 1970 playoff rotation (getting the final start in the sweep and being pulled after 2 innings). In addition to having a bit more "lifetime Twin" cred, he could have benefitted from a flipped outcome to the 1965 series and/or a better finish on his remarkable 1967 stretch run to give him some defining moments. Just looking at his similarity scores at B-Ref, a Kaat election to the HOF almost certainly means Tommy John has to go in as well, and Jamie Moyer would warrant strong consideration.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting point, although Kaat's Twins career numbers really weren't all that different than Brad Radke's. Does Radke deserve a number retirement? I doubt Hall of Fame voters are looking at retired numbers, though (and if they were looking that closely, they would probably also notice that Hrbek won 2 titles with the Twins and is a Minnesota native, explaining why he is the only non-HOF candidate among that group). Both Kaat's HOF case and his number retirement case would have been enhanced by spending more of his career with the Twins, I think (greater franchise association), but the number retirement itself probably has no effect on his hall case.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    How so? Kaat's very best seasons by ERA+ (125-130) barely exceed Mussina's career average (123). They both led their leagues in GS twice and IP once. They were both full-time MLB starting pitchers from ages 22-39. They both won a ton of Gold Gloves. But Mussina almost doubles Kaat in rWAR, and destroys him in WAA (48 vs 7). Awards seem to back that up -- Mussina had 5 All-Star appearances and 9 years receiving Cy Young votes, versus 3 and 1 for Kaat (albeit separate Cy Youngs for each league were not awarded for the first 5 seasons of Kaat's career -- otherwise he probably adds 1-3 Cy Young vote-getting seasons. Then again, his first All-Star appearance was also in a year with two All-Star games...).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    You don't see how a dark-skinned baseball player coming to America in 1946 could have had his professional career notably impacted by institutional racism? I didn't say it was the only factor or even a major factor, but it's certainly another factor that leans Minoso over Oliva, who was mainly just a late discovery/bloomer. Again, they're pretty close (or they wouldn't be on this ballot together), but it's hard not to prefer Minoso.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Probably only if the Twins had been prepared to deal him in 2011 -- don't think that is clear at all.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Minoso began playing professionally in America about 3 years earlier than Oliva, and he's got a clearer excuse why he wasn't in MiLB or MLB during those early years. And the "only 250 AB" distinction is meaningless -- Minoso played full seasons in the Negro Leagues, it's not his fault they were sporadically scheduled and recorded.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Kiner's case, obviously, rests on his 7 consecutive HR titles (to begin his career, no less). And even he only made the HOF in his 15th and final year of eligibility.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It was just shorthand. We probably agree more than we disagree. I think we are speaking about different things, for the most part. Suffice to say, as to your original statement ("Had his knees cut his career short after those spectacular eight or even ten years but he was never able to play again, he likely would have gotten in, similar to Puckett and Koufax."), I disagree. Despite 3 batting titles, it seems that Oliva wasn't as distinguishable among his peers during his 8 year run, as compared to Puckett and Koufax (not his fault, of course -- it was a crowded time for HOF performers and star postseason performers too).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    They both hit the ground running at age 25, but Minoso had to play in the Negro Leagues for a few years before that.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, another reason for teams not to share their bids with each other prematurely -- they might wind up bidding on the same player again later!
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