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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Dunn. And if we're counting Zach Duke's ~$5 mil AAV on one side of the ledger, it seems only fair to include similar yearly salaries they are shedding in the form of Lindstrom, Beckham, De Aza, and Downs, not to mention Bellisario and Konerko close to ~$3 mil each.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    They don't really need future luck to have a meaningfully strong rotation -- they've got one at present. Sale, Quintana, and now Samardzija. I'd argue that even with TR's guidance, the Twins draft-and-develop approach is probably more dependent on "luck" (with less yearly breakout potential) than the White Sox more aggressive approach.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The White Sox obviously aren't perfect, but I like that they are never content to accept 4-5 year rebuilding plans (even if they are unlikely to win a pennant in that 4-5 year window anyway). They've been really aggressive, even in the draft (Sale, Rodon), and while not every move has worked out for them, I have never gotten the impression that any of their failed moves have really prevented any other significant moves.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Comparing relievers by W-L, ERA, Saves, and FIP is almost certainly worse than paying $40 million for a relief pitcher. I probably wouldn't have done it, but the Robertson deal looks much better than the Nathan extension from 2008. Heck, many of us (probably not you ) consider the Perkins deal to be team-friendly, and he's guaranteed almost $25 mil over the next 4 years (albeit with an option). I wouldn't make a practice of paying big money to relievers, but making an exception to target a fairly young, big K guy like Robertson in a year when your first round pick is protected doesn't look crazy to me.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Is he fully healthy yet? He couldn't stick in a pretty decimated Texas rotation this past season, so I can't imagine anyone is too high on him at the moment, or it's still a fairly dicey question of health.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Much like the Hunter to Span dynamic didn't actually manifest itself at all in Span's performance until after Hunter left, Torii Hunter didn't really click as a viable MLB hitter until the year 2000. From what I know of Puckett's life after retirement, he probably wasn't really active with Hunter at that point. No doubt that Puckett was probably a great friend and role model to Hunter, and Hunter the same for Span, but I think the perseverance/performance effects of those "mentorships" are overblown. Hunter and Span were both first round picks and neither was that old or close to washing out when their performance level finally clicked enough to stick in MLB. That doesn't mean such mentorship isn't a good thing -- I am sure it is, it's fun to read about, and it should be encouraged. But it almost certainly shouldn't dictate player acquisition and roster composition to the extent that the Twins seem to think it should.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier, May 28 thru end of season 2013: 119 wRC+. Dozier, full 2014 season: 118 wRC+ The shape of the production changed a bit in latter half of 2014, but this level of performance is just fine for Dozier's "blossoming." Remember, he was never a star prospect. And I think those were adjustments he had to make in MLB too, not AAA.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Milone's 2014, especially the Twins portion, hurt his value, but I don't know that it would have taken too much more than him to equal one year of not-so-cheap J.A. Happ. A marginal prospect, perhaps? I saw a lot of rumors about Saunders being shopped, and none mentioned the Twins. I think the Twins had their sights set on their #1 outfield target from day 1 this offseason, unfortunately.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    League average ERA was notably under 4.00 for basically Kaat's entire career (once even below 3.00). League average ERA was notably above 4 for Radke's entire career (once an even 5.00 too).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally I agree, but TR has been pretty open, direct, and accurate with his public statements recently.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    On the subject of other teams rumored for Hunter's services, it is interesting that Seattle and Texas (and Kansas City, whom I heard mentioned) were among the worst offenses in the league in 2014, and Baltimore was losing both a starting OF and a DH in free agency (KC is losing guys at those two spots too). The Twins had the least compelling reason, from a performance standpoint, to sign a 39 year old, ~110 OPS+ corner OF.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    When they announce that Hunter is taking over RF, that significantly reduces the likely possibilities that can happen between now and March. It's basically either Arcia to LF, AAA, or traded.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think I just read a TR quote that he's going to focus on pitching now. And so far he's been pretty forthright in these matters.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    My Facebook feed is blowing up with positive reactions to the Hunter signing, so it appears we are in the minority.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I imagine that perhaps other offers were not forthcoming, as other teams waited for their own Plan A/B/etc. at the position, and the Twins made a big take-it-or-leave-it offer early like they did with Nolasco.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Berardino says the Twins won't offer Hunter more than $5 mil for 2016.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a matter of disbelief -- it's that these kinds of statements are very common in pro sports. I am not sure they are particularly meaningful in the context of "mentorship" being a top priority for player acquisition. Hey, look -- Mike Trout likes Vernon Wells too! http://halohangout.com/2011/06/21/tuesday-twitter-stalking-mike-trout-and-vernon-wells-are-tweet-buddies/ (Wells is a free agent too, by the way!)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure one or two routine misplays make a guy worst in the league in UZR. Also, many players can probably make a few outstanding plays to balance a couple botched routine ones. Hunter has probably done that for most of his career. If he started failing to do that the past 2 years, at ages 38 and 39, isn't that notable?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Most ballplayers are pretty complimentary to teammates in the media. Without more detail, I am not sure I want to read that much more than that into these comments about Hunter. For all we know, Torii recommended him a good barber in SoCal, or helped him set up a Roth IRA.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry, I meant ~110 OPS+. Our whole lineup was basically that last year. Some might regress, true, but I don't think another hitter at that level with no upside and questionable defense was our top priority.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    You don't even need metrics to think this is a bad idea, defensively. Dude is turning 40 next year. And while he has been a steady hitter, he's not a high upside one -- was this team's top priority really replacing Willingham's 110 OPS+? Didn't we have a lot of thse hitters last year?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't mean it would fully deter them, but it takes some of the steam out of what is probably a marginal upgrade. Remember we had to twist arms to give away Morneau.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I am not quite so confident that a July trade is a condition here. We did see it with Kendrys Morales, and some of the expiring contract vets recently, but Hunter could still be seen as one of "our guys" and I am not sure they ever plan to deal those types. Remember the dragged out process that was the Morneau trade? For that matter, it's not at all clear there will be a great trade market for Hunter -- 40 year old corner OF, questionable defense, solid slightly above average bat, making ~$2 mil a month -- that's not necessarily an easy sell.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, "better than Willingham, Colabello & Arcia" is not the threshold we should be using. That would be like aiming to improve the starting staff last year and just looking for someone "better than PJ Walters and Pedro Hernandez". And there are still other short-term options, Rios and Rasmus being the most prominent on the FA market.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Doogie sure beat Berardino on this one (and most of us).
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