Otto von Ballpark

Sure, But focusing on LaMarre misses the fact that we also had Grossman, plus Cave in AAA, and both Cave and LaMarre had options so they could be swapped freely according to need (ideally Cave up for starting opportunities, and LaMarre up for more infrequent appearances). I wished they would have brought up Cave a bit earlier (although he may turn out to be no more productive than LaMarre in the end anyway), but finding adequate 4th outfielder production doesn't seem to be a particular failing of the 2018 Twins.

It's a natural pairing, since I think "Lance Lynn" sounds like two first names, and "Logan Morrison" sounds like two last names. Maybe they should swap names? Lance Logan and Lynn Morrison, the craziest MLB trade since Fritz Peterson and Mike Kekich! Couldn't hurt.

Who's to say they didn't do those things? I mean, they actually did get Cave by trade. I understand this kind of criticism over a few years across a roster, perhaps, but in one offseason at a specific position, it's not necessarily easy to do. Has anyone else plucked an international/independent outfield gem this season? And did you read the last part of my post? The Twins non-starting outfielders have combined for roughly a 91 wRC+ in 345 PA this year. That's as good or better than any of the free agent outfielders I listed. Even considering Grossman's defense, they're all about replacement level -- but bench players often are. Twins non-starting outfielders: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=43&season1=2018&ind=0&team=8&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=2,d Free agent outfielders: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=9848,5223,4881,5227,3882,2578,3708,4022&sort=21,d

Although they immediately played him in CF and even started him at 2B. They don't have to think he has a viable future at a position to give him a game or even just a few innings at it. Personally, like Sconnie said upthread, I was more interested in it as a means of seeing his bat more -- I like good contact hitters.

The Twins are only 4 games out of the 5th pick right now (Detroit). There are only 3 *really* bad teams by record so far this year, and then a bunch that are on pace for around 70 wins. Last year the 5th pick was a 68 win team. If I had to bet, I'd say we clear that, but we've definitely got the potential to achieve top 5 status!

Well, this a pretty specific, high-level thing, so I think identifying some players shouldn't be too hard. Let's see... for MLB deals, there was Austin Jackson, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, Chris Young (the outfielder). A number of those guys did sign for starting spots. Also, Eduardo Nunez and Howie Kendrick were infielders with some corner OF experience, if that counts. Notable minor league deals include Peter Bourjos, Melky Cabrera (eventually), Rajai Davis, Scott Van Slyke, Jayson Werth. I think every one of those guys is now sitting at a 89 OPS+ or worse, except Kendrick who ruptured his achilles in May, ending his season with a 110 OPS+. We wound up with Chris Heisey and Ryan LaMarre on minor league deals. And then LH Cave. Not sure why they didn't turn to Cave sooner, but combined LaMarre and Cave have about a 100 OPS+ in 197 PA. Grossman's got a 94 OPS+ and 137 PA in the outfield. Grossman's defense hurt, but I don't know if we'd have notably better production from the 4th outfield spot with one of these free agents.

Zander Wiel, stats-wise, is reminding me of Vargas at A+ and AA. Of course, Vargas was a little younger, and got protected on the 40-man after his A+ season. Wiel is Rule 5 eligible this winter. At this point, I am guessing they let him finish at AA, leave him unprotected, and hope he can show more power next year at AAA before they add him. Hoping for development like Jesus Aguilar?

Or cheeseburgers? https://sports.theonion.com/c-c-sabathia-prince-fielder-keep-imagining-each-other-1819569949

Speaking of 2019 draft, the Twins are "up" to #10. And we're closer to #5 than we are to .500. Maybe we need to start including this link in the daily recaps: http://www.tankathon.com/mlb On the bright side, we hurt KC's chances at the #1 overall pick this past weekend! If we "lose out" our remaining head-to-head matchups, we can easily pass Detroit. Need some help to reach the White Sox or Royals, though...

Can they trade those 2019 picks yet? I don't think they've actually been awarded yet. I guess we could do "future considerations" and treat it like a PTBNL, with some contingencies. If it's like the 2018 draft, Milwaukee's only tradeable pick will be in the #74 range, like the one we sold with Hughes. Similar with the international bonus money, they can't trade for the next period yet, so it would be from the current 2018-2019 period. The Twins and Brewers both started with about $6 mil in their pools. I have no idea how much is left and what it is worth at this point, though -- I think only 1 of MLB's top 30 is still unsigned...

Well, that's not what their methodology means. It's a rough estimate of what dollars per win can cost on the open market, usually around the top of the market. For Escobar, if he'd even qualify for such analysis, you'd want to look at his projections for next year (likely well less than 3-4 WAR) and beyond. And like I showed above, there might be a lot of infield options, and not every team is interested in paying that dollar per win figure either, at least not for every position or acquisition. I enjoy Fangraphs a ton, but I pretty much ignore that "Dollars" column. And in their defense, it's pretty well buried -- it's not in the Dashboard on the player or leader pages, so they're not really promoting any kind of universal application of it. They generally only bring it up in articles when trying to peg the value of the top free agents or trade targets, not for every player that hits FA.

Might have to send cash with Morrison to get that bucket of balls. And it might have to wait until August after teams have exhausted all other options. FWIW, the Rockies would have to bench some pretty significant players/salary to actually play Morrison. Not sure he's terribly attractive as a bench player either.

3/45 for Escobar does seem unrealistic, especially with a QO attached. Even with his career year this year, he's only on pace for 3.7 WAR. He was at roughly 1.5 WAR in 2017, and at or below replacement in 2016. The last time Escobar played significant innings at SS was 2016, and he had negative DRS/UZR. He's never played significant innings at 2B. So he's likely getting signed as either a utility player, in which case he's getting nothing close to $45 mil, or as a third baseman. How did third basemen fare last winter? - Moustakas (the only one with a QO attached) got 1/6.5, averaged 3.2 WAR per 600 PA the previous 3 seasons - Frazier got 2/17, averaged 3.4 WAR the previous 6 seasons - Cozart got 3/38 to convert to 3B, coming off 5 WAR the previous year and average 4 WAR per 600 PA the previous 3 seasons (and I bet the Angels regretted this contract before the offseason was over too) - Nunez was a utility guy who predominantly played 3B the last 2 seasons, and he only got 2/8. You can make a case that Escobar is better / more flexible than any of those 4, and still fall well short of 3/45, especially with a QO attached. Plus, that was a relatively light supply in the market. The market for 3B this winter could include Machado, Moustakas again, Donaldson, Beltre, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, and Freese or Kang (both have club options). If you expand Escobar's market to the other infield spots, he'd still be competing with a couple of those guys plus Dozier, Murphy, Kinsler, LeMahieu, Descalso, Hechavarria, and Iglesias. Given all that, I'd say it is very unlikely that Escobar turns down a 1/18 deal. Even if he thinks he might get 2/25 or 3/30, I think he would try to use the 1/18 as leverage to get an extra year or two from the Twins, rather than try to get that on the open market with a QO attached. (And the upside for the Twins, in the unlikely event that Escobar did reject the QO, is not that high -- higher than #95 we forfeited for Lynn, but only like 75-80, the same range of pick we traded with Hughes.)

Yes. Vasquez is Rule 5 eligible this winter if we don't add him to the roster, so he might get the call in September like Moya did last year.

Hey, Cleveland lost today too, so we didn't lose any ground! Holding strong at 9.5 back...

Nah, Mejia will be optioned after his start Monday.

Morrison's rest of season projection is still around a 110 wRC+. I am not sure an organization should be faulted for not having that kind of player sitting in reserve. (And Grossman is up to 94, with a 105 projection for the rest of the season, so he should be a decent alternative.)

Lineups:

To be fair, Rochester stopped using Astudillo at catcher when they signed Cameron Rupp. They had a few other exclusive catchers on the roster too, whereas Astudillo has a fairly long record of playing elsewhere. To the extent that I am sure they don't believe Astudillo has a future as a MLB catcher, I am also pretty sure they don't believe he has much of a MLB future at all, yet they called him up. If he has a MLB future at all, it is probably as a utility player including a little catcher. Might as well give him a couple of innings there in a blowout to protect your other catchers (remember the Bobby Wilson heat index fiasco?). If you are willing pitch a position player, or play Astudillo in CF, or start him at 2B, you should probably be willing to at least use him at catcher in that situation.

And Cleveland is up 10-2 in the 7th inning. So we've likely lost 2 games in the standings just in the first 2 games of the second half, down to 9.5 games out of first.

The Twins media department is busy photoshopping this:

I was right! https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/1020770786783694848?s=20

For that price, maybe the Twins should have been buyers. At least for the next 10 days or so. Worst case, you drop further back and flip him like Jaime Garcia.

Dozier's chances at a $50 mil deal are not great, but possible. Escobar's chance is virtually zero. If Escobar turns down the QO, he instantly loses ~$4-5 mil from his bargaining position with other teams. His track record doesn't warrant a QO either -- keep in mind this is the first season of his career where he's been meaningfully above average with the bat. I think he takes it, if offered. Absent the qualifying offer, he probably gets contract offers like 2/20 or 3/24, either of which would be preferable for the Twins compared to a 1/18 deal (which would not only be an overpay for 2019, but it would basically make him untradeable unless we ate a lot of cash).