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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No, this is Mejia's last option year. He is out of options next spring.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but at the same time, we couldn't say Gibson's nice finish wasn't for real either. We needed more data on him in 2018 to make the call for 2019, same for a few other guys too (Mejia?). Which the Pineda signing kind of side-stepped, and I do wonder if Pineda coming off surgery is actually good enough to warrant that treatment. (Also, as I noted in another post, we didn't know Erv was going to be less of a factor for 2019 yet either.) Obviously, in modern MLB terms, Pineda's contract isn't really a big deal -- but we also know how our Twins operate. I could see how having him locked in would cause us to pass up other opportunities.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    May (the pitcher) hasn't started a game since May (the month). Not sure he's a starter anymore, and probably not of the gate in 2019 anyway. Although Mejia will be out of options too. I guess technically we signed Pineda before we acquired Odorizzi, but we knew we were going to acquire someone, and at that point we also didn't know Erv was going to miss so much time in 2018 either. Plus all the AAA SP, we knew we had a lot of options, it was always kind of questionable whether Pineda had the upside to prematurely commit a 2019 spot to him. Of course, I'm not writing off Pineda or anything. But I could see this team wanting to use that spot/money for a bit different SP mix in 2019, and that's not really unanticipated either. But who knows, maybe they've got some kind of a tweak in mind to improve Pineda, or maybe they could leverage him out of the pen in 2019 too.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    At the time, it seemed like an interesting move, but now it does seem odd. For 2019, we've got Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi right now. Possibly Erv's option. Plus probably Romero, and possibly Mejia, in addition to Gonsalves, Littell, Slegers, and Thorpe all on the 40-man roster too. I know, you can never have too many SP, but it does seem like maybe we were a bit over-eager to commit to a average-ish TJ recovery guy for 2019. There's probably a few upcoming FA that might be better fits?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Upcoming free agent catchers, per MLBTR: Drew Butera (35) Robinson Chirinos (35) — $2.375MM club option with a $100K buyout A.J. Ellis (38) Tyler Flowers (33) Yasmani Grandal (30) Nick Hundley (35) Jonathan Lucroy (33) Martin Maldonado (32) Jeff Mathis (36) Brian McCann (35) — $15MM club/player option Devin Mesoraco (31) Miguel Montero (35) Wilson Ramos (31) Rene Rivera (35) Kurt Suzuki (35) Matt Wieters (33) McCann's option won't vest, and it seems unlikely the Astros pick it up at this point, so he'd be an interesting bounceback candidate. We liked the last catcher the Astros moved on from. Grandal and Ramos are having good seasons. Suzuki and Flowers have been solid too. Maldonado too, by defensive metrics anyway. In smaller samples, Mesoraca has been decent for the Mets, and Hundley for the Giants in a backup role.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    All thanks to the wonderful facilities of Ft. Myers!
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Hedges had a .183 ISO last year, which looks solid, but keep in mind the league non-pitcher ISO was .175. And FWIW, Petco has been trending more neutral in recent years, per B-Ref. And Hedges' home-road splits are virtually identical. I guess he does have 1 HR in 6 PA at Target Field (off Busenitz last year). But he also has a .502 OPS at Coors Field, and only a .638 at Chase Field (Arizona). I'm not sure if ballpark matters much, he just looks like a very bad hitter.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought they just grabbed Kemmer for that purpose? Maybe they are thinking about promoting Wade... or DFA'ing Granite...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Matt Capps was quite up-and-down before we acquired him (Washington only got him after he was non-tendered the previous winter, after all), while Hand has been extremely consistent since moving the pen. Hand was also a multi-inning reliever pretty recently, not just a one-inning closer like Capps, which could be big for a team following the Miller postseason model.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Hedges seems like the kind of bad hitter we might struggle to fix. He's never really been much of a hitter outside the PCL either -- and his only extended run there was 2016 when he still had a 15% K rate. That has ballooned in MLB to 29% last year and 34% now. He's like Mike Zunino without the power. Kepler would be way too much to give up for that, I think. He has 2 options left so I am not sure the Padres have to ship him out yet either. Maybe if Mejia really does have defensive issues, they can work a kind of platoon? Unless optioned soon, Hedges will be arbitration eligible this winter as well. Maybe that would be some incentive for them to deal.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought that too, but Rosario is 2nd on the Cubs in game-entering leverage index, behind only their closer Morrow. They seem to be using him like a key reliever so far. Rosario could absolutely take Duensing's postseason roster spot.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Bauer and Carrasco are controlled through 2020, and Kluber 2021. Lindor through 2021, Clevinger through 2022, and Ramirez through 2023 too... And now Hand through 2021.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Aroldis Chapman fetched Gleyber Torres as a pure rental. But that is probably the outlier. Cespedes got Michael Fulmer, who was ranked around #50. Considering Machado is getting some hype as one of the biggest pending FA ever, there was maybe some expectation that he could get that kind of haul.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I've heard it likened to the Darvish trade return from last year. I know some here have criticized the Dodgers for not paying the price for Dozier, but who can really blame them when they've consistently been able to deal for other talent so cheaply?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    A key difference is, the Twins 2010 pen wasn't bad without Capps. And Hand is better and controlled a lot longer (potentially through 2021).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I've always gotten a bit of a Jesus Montero vibe when considering prospect Mejia....
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Cimber is a sidearmer, though. Those guys don't always need velocity to succeed. Obviously he's the lesser piece in this deal, but could be a helpful one to Cleveland.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    As for Fenway, Benintendi has a higher career wRC+ on the road than at home. As for the AL East, his 3 highest OPS ballparks are outside that division (although admittedly smaller samples).
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    No, I remember going to 7:10 games with kids and having good odds of actually finishing the game before I had to start taking them home by the appointed time of 10 PM. I also remember asking my wife if I could put a game on for our evening's entertainment and having a good chance of seeing it to its conclusion before a 10 PM bedtime. In order to move this conversation forward, quit making up weird hypotheticals and applying them to me. What's your point anyway? Someone says "the games feel longer" and indeed, factually, they are longer, and you think it is constructive to say "sorry, no human could possibly FEEL that way"? I mean, either way you want to frame it (longer game times or slower pace), the solutions are going to be the same. Quicken the pace and you will have shorter game times.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think people are more capable of judging time of game than you think. Relative to something like a person's bedtime, or when they get home from the stadium, it's not hard to notice. Median Twins 9-inning game in 1991 was 2:44; even in 2011, that figure was only 2:46. 3 years later (2014), it was already 3:02, and so far is 3:07 for 2018. Yes, people are fully capable of noticing that change over that time frame. I took kids to games both then and now and the difference is quite stark. I have no qualms with primarily expressing it as a pace/inaction problem, but the time of game explosion is also an acceptable shorthand.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, per MLBTR, the Dodgers can add Machado and stay under the tax. But they might want to unload Forsythe anyway, just for the roster spot.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Diaz has snuck onto the updated MLB top 100 list, at #84. Sickels had Diaz at 170 preseason, and estimated May in the low 200's if his list went that far. (While acknowledging the order doesn't really matter past 100.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, selective endpoints AND cherrypicking, all in the same post. Well done. And in the linked article, the writer cited Lynn's improved recent performance and his July 1st disaster start.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Sean Murphy was 50 FV preseason at Fangraphs (#65 right now at MLB.com). IF a team was willing to pay full freight for what Kyle Gibson has done this year, we could possibly get that level of a prospect -- but I suspect no one wants to do that.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Odorizzi actually has 2 options left -- BUT he is also 18 days shy of 5 years service time and thus the right to refuse any optional assignment. So unless you want to option him right now, Odorizzi is effectively out of options going forward.
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